The hysteria keeps ramping up~ctm
From CNN
By Ashley Strickland, CNN
Updated 1:38 AM ET, Sat August 5, 2017
Story highlights
- Heat waves will be responsible for 99% of weather-related deaths in Europe by 2100, a new study says
- Climate change will be the dominant driver of these disasters
(CNN)By the end of the century, two out of three people living in Europe will be affected by heat waves, coastal floods and other weather-related disasters, largely due to global warming and climate change, according to a study published Friday in the journal Lancet Planetary Health.
That’s 350 million people in 31 countries subjected to an increased risk of death and health hazards.
Overall, weather-related disasters are expected to cause 152,000 deaths a year in Europe between 2071 and 2100, jumping from 3,000 weather disaster-related deaths a year between 1981 and 2010.
Deadly heat waves becoming more common due to climate change
The researchers estimate that 99% of future weather-related deaths will be due to heat waves. That could very well cause a spike in cardiovascular disease, stroke and respiratory diseases, the researchers suggested.
“This should be considered in light of the devastating effects of the 2003 European and 2010 Russian heat waves, where thousands died. The thought of such events occurring more frequently is frightening,” said Andrew Grundstein, a professor with the University of Georgia’s Department of Geography who was not affiliated with the new study.
Southern Europe is likely to be hit the hardest, based on projections for heat waves and droughts. Almost everyone living in Italy, Greece, Spain, Croatia, Cyprus, Malta, Portugal and Slovenia would be affected by weather-related disasters, causing 700 deaths per 1 million people annually.
Higher seas to flood dozens of US cities, study says; is yours one of them?
By comparison, one out of three people will be affected every year in northern Europe: Denmark, Iceland, Finland, Norway and Sweden.
Other than heat-related deaths, annual coastal flooding-related deaths will rise from six to 233 by the end of the century. Droughts could also reduce the water needed for food production and basic needs for 138 million people, the researchers said.
Previous studies have pointed to population growth, urbanization and migration as drivers of disaster risk in the future.
“Our results show that for the future, climate change will likely be the dominant driver of the projected trends, accounting for more than 90% of the rise in risk to population,” said Giovanni Forzieri of the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, lead author of the new study. “Population changes such as growth, migration and urbanization will account for the remaining 10%.”
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Europe is expected to face major changes in the frequency of multiple climate extremes over the coming decades, Forzieri said.
To understand the future effects of extreme weather, the researchers combined projections on climate change and population growth with 2,300 records from 1981 to 2010 that identified disasters and death tolls across countries.
The disaster records also helped the researchers determine “human vulnerability” — the relationship between weather exposure and how it affects humans — to seven weather-related disasters: heat waves, cold waves, wildfires, droughts, river and coastal flooding and windstorms.
Al Gore presses on with climate change action in the Trump era
“This study shows that, unless global warming is curbed as a matter of urgency and appropriate adaptation measures are taken, about 350 million Europeans could be exposed to harmful climate extremes on an annual basis by the end of this century, with a 50-times increase in fatalities compared with now,” Forzieri said.
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If this keeps up, 100% of Europeans will be affected by CAGW related legislated stupidity.
The demands of the CAGW stupidity are just like paying a million bucks in insurance premiums to protect a hundred thousand dollar house. link
and the Hugo Award for science fiction goes to ….
Wonder how the Romans coped. It was warmer in their heyday than the forecat for 2100.
‘Paul Wilkinson, a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, who was not involved in the study, said the findings were “yet another reminder of the exposures to extreme weather and possible human impacts that might occur if emissions of greenhouse gases continue unabated.”
“It adds further weight to the powerful argument for accelerating mitigation actions to protect population health.”‘
http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/grim-weather-warning-for-europes-future/ar-AAprIHe
Now I was chatting to the lawnmower bloke only the other day and he reckons…
“if emissions of greenhouse gases continue unabated.”
Why do we still have so many scare stories like this one, based on the proviso that emissions continue unabated when, so we are told, the Paris Agreement has put an end to that possibility? Or is all the brouhaha about Paris just a lot of hot air? Come clean, you scare story folks – did Obama fix it or was he just a total dud?
Someone please take away their crystal balls and give them something else to play with. I am so tired of hearing these fools tell me what the weather will be like in eighty years and what people will be dropping dead from.
And here in Dustbowl territory, the grass is still green and it is still raining perodically, and the temperatures are mild, and all in all it has been one of the better, milder summers I can remember. Beautiful weather. If this is what CAGW looks like, give me more!
The fact is it is not getting “hotter and hotter” it is getting milder. It’s usually 104 F this time of year. Now it’s 84 F and not expected to get much hotter, and this is the hottest part of our year. Love it! The only thing I don’t like is I have to mow the lawn more often. Usually the grass goes dormant from the heat around the end of June and doesn’t require much mowing until the fall. That used to be what it was like, but today we are not getting those extremes. The last extreme summer around here was 2010, and that was a *very* hot summer, certainly nothing like today.
CO2 is higher but the temperatures are not. What are the alarmists going to do if this cooling trend continues?
Two out of 3 Europeans will also be DEAD by 2100. Coincidence?!
Complete nonsense.
The department of health in the UK estimate that around 40,000 excess deaths occur during the winter period. Europe wide 250,000 ???. The report makes no estimate as to the extent these will be reduced.
It assumes no mitigation will take place to offset increased temperatures. Over the next 80 years I would guess that between 50-80% of the built infrastructure will be replaced compliant with building regulations that will apply in the future.
And finally it is quite clear that some parts of the world routinely live with average max summer temperatures above 40C and somewhat higher during a local “heatwave”. As far as I am aware they do not die in droves every year but have adapted to warmer temperatures.
Yes, it was 47 degrees C in Dubai when I was there in July some years ago. How many people in Dubai died as a result of that temperature? It’s a bit like saying that Britain is usually unprepared for very cold weather and this causes all sorts of problems so things must be far worse in the winter in places like Norway and Sweden.
I remind you that the excess winter deaths figure is largely deaths from flu and varies year on year based on current flu strain and effectiveness of the year’s vaccine.
Cold has only a minor influence on total deaths (your figure seems too high for the UK ?)
The alarmist studios are producing studies at a breakneck pace. I wonder if this one was synchronized with the release of Al Gore sequel.
The realism of these studies is breathtaking. It reminds me of a scene in another Hollywood product, “True lies”, where an automatic gun gets dropped on top of stairs and fires whenever it hits a stair, killing all the bad guys. Until we can predict weather reliably for the next 100 hours, 83-year predictions of climate belong in that category.
Why 83 years? Before year 2000 they were scaring us with predictions for year 2100. They have now a plenty of projections (of a real Hollywood quality; no predictions any more, for that reason) for year 2100, and none for 2017.
A reliable weather prediction for tomorrow is “it will be just today”. Usually. In two weeks we will see how good are projections for a brewing Atlantic hurricane.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/08/04/hurricane-drought-to-end-models-show-hurricane-on-track-for-east-coast/
Sorry – none for 2117.
Complete nonsense^2.
The current (2015) situation: “Cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather, according to an international study analyzing over 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries. The findings also reveal that deaths due to moderately hot or cold weather substantially exceed those resulting from extreme heat waves or cold spells.” — source: The Lancet, May 20, 2015 (link: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/05/150520193831.htm )
So, where is the rational explanation for the predicted drastic reversal from cold causing 95% of weather-related deaths today to heat causing 99% of weather-related deaths in just the next 85 years? Humans incapable of adaptation, even with technology?
It looks like the Lancet’s left hand doesn’t know what its right hand is doing.
“study” right
input bullshit, get bullshit out… study
With demographic change by then, the hot climate will be taken in stride. Besides, with no longer need for winter heating and the greening bringing plenty and having restored forests, grapes, peaches, avocado’s,… it would be a destination for tourism.
Lancet has obviously sold its prestige down the river as Nature did before it. It is too bad that UK squandered the opportunity provided by Brexit by leaving the same lemmings in power that brought the country to split from the continental disaster of EU. Leadership by Nigel Farrage would have moved the country out of danger quickly and much of this silliness would have abated.
My observation is that freedom and economic enterprise seem to be indelibly an English speaking cultural idiosyncracy. The mother of all this is in danger of losing it. With an English speaking world to communicate with and do business with, why would Britain even have contemplated the continental foolishness in the first place.
Anarchy! What a cruel joke. The тоталiтаяуаиs are already putting in nose rings at birth in the EU. The main fuss by the nay side in UK is largely because the nose ring practice might be discontinued. No one in Europe even knows what an anarchist is. They’d be happy to just have their old fashioned socialist nannies back. Of course, like other English words, anarchy could change it’s meaning by 2100, say, to mean the felony of spouting freedom nonsense. Lancet could be bought out by the Guardian.
All of this over the equivalence of moving 150 to 200 miles closer to the equator. People do this all the time, often to improve their health!
The stupid! It hurts!
JC – Don’t feel like the lone ranger. I/We/Us were all in it together until Gore’s ‘Net came along. It’s been a global thing from the start. All brought about by those wonderful financial Wizards of Oz who brought us WWI, II, Korea, Vietnam, the Middle East “Wars”, 9/11, genetically modified lies (read: food), tainted vaccines, AIDS, pandemics that weren’t, terrorists that aren’t, banks-and-money houses-too-big-to-fail, green house gases/CO2/global warming/climate change, and smart meters aimed at thinning the pocket books and gene pool of the great unwashed. (Documentary at top of link below.)
. . .
http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2017/08/05/smart-meter-dangers.aspx?utm_source=dnl&utm_medium=email&utm_content=art1&utm_campaign=20170805Z1_UCM&et_cid=DM153152&et_rid=5320819
There’s a word for those void of heart, soul, or conscience who deliberately profit from the injury and demise of humanity.
actually the article might be more correct then it seems at first thought, however the why’s and hows are completely wrong.
it’s true that we may have more extremes the coming decades as low solar activity is tied to more frequent blocking patterns. That means heat in the summers but also cold in the winters. It all depends on the timing of when the blocking occurs.
i often say it this way with some goof in it:
blocking high in the summer: “Gaia turns the oven on”
blocking high in the winter: “gaia turns the freezer on”
NAO+ during winter: “gaia empties the bathtub”
NAO- during winter: “gaia has spare white clothes in het wardrobe”
so yes i would expect more extreme weather with this low solar activity, but that has thus a different cause.
+ 10, agreed.
In other words, 2 out of 3 people will suffer some adverse affect of a 100 year weather event in the next 83 years. This is news? Do they need some statistical help to understand what they are saying?
Heat waves are measured as a deviation from what is “normal” for the area.
Even if AGW were to cause “normal’ temperatures to increase by 5( (an utter impossibility) there would be no increase in heat waves because of this fact.
More people die in NYC when the temperatures hit mid 90’s for a few weeks, then die in Atlanta even though the temperature will be hotter the that the entire summer.
Heat waves and cold waves are specific with advective energy in general circulation system in that part of globe. They are extreme temperatures in wind blowing direction. For example, in India Western disturbances carry the cold and heat waves. The path is guided by the stationary high pressure belt around Nagpur west to east. This belt movement north to south and east to west define the path. However, the presence of cyclonic system in Bay of Bengal or Arabian Sea forces the path in the other direction. They are regular waves in summer and winter but the intensity changes from year to year or from event to event based on northwest weather condition. I published a paper in 1978 with typical scenarios based on few years data. Urban heat islands are not part of this.
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy
The present S European heatwave has temps 10 degrees C above ‘normal’ temps for the time of year.
There is a problem with their numbers. For instance they claim nobody in Finland currently dies of cold waves (table S8, http://www.thelancet.com/cms/attachment/2103447591/2080584661/mmc1.pdf). Cold is in fact a major cause of death here and elsewhere in Europe. The real number for just Finland is several thousands per year.
According to earlier studies (e.g. this one http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140673614621140 published in The Lancet) cold weather explains around 5 to 10% of all mortality in European countries. With about 8 million annual deaths (https://www.ined.fr/en/everything_about_population/data/europe-developed-countries/population-births-deaths/) that would mean half a million deaths attributable to cold weather every year, actual people, today. Much more than the imaginative 150,000 a year in 2100.
The new Lancet paper says cold explains only 98 annual deaths in Europe, a 5000-fold underestimate.
In the supplementary appendix page 8 they admit it’s “likely unrealistic” to ignore the acclimatisation effects that are known to happen in the real world. That’s not a small error either. Some earlier studies (http://www.bmj.com/content/321/7262/670) suggest it would compensate about all of the expected temperature rise. For instance heat mortality in Finland has declined about 70% in three decades (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935102000026).
This sort of corrupt, rubbish, statistics is now endemic in fields that should know better because of the infiltration of political séance at the top-
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/blogs/andrew-bolt/why-is-the-ama-telling-untruths-about-samesex-marriage/news-story/f24f1749e3d835de431795f7cadd79e4
Follows hot on the heels of the Australian BOM being caught out with their smart card manipulations of minimum temperatures but with so many scientifically illiterate journos around nowadays, it’s a case of the blind leading the blind. So many dodgy headline grabbers it’s hard to keep up with them all but like Gore states, it’s a spiritual thing for these people and their flunkies in the media.
By 2100 CNN will be history.