While we enjoy a 4300+ day drought of major hurricanes making landfall on the USA, hurricane expert Dr. Ryan MAue opines on Twitter about the possibilities for a Hurricane hitting the Atlantic Coast. He shows model output for a powerful hurricane to develop, with some predcted tracks showing US landfall around South Carolina, but cautions that it’s still very early, and some tracks show it turning out to sea. He writes in a series of Tweets:
Hurricane season may ramp up a bit over the next 7-10 days w/action in southern Gulf of Mexico and in the far Atlantic w/Cape Verde system.
A 10-12 day forecast of a developing tropical storm off the coast of Africa is the next frontier of tropical weather forecasting in 2020s.
Both mesoscale hurricane models HMON and HWRF develop wave off Africa (Invest 99L) into a powerful hurricane in 5-days in open Atlantic.
Invest 99L blows up to major hurricane in latest GFS model but ensemble system spaghetti from previous run curves out to sea. Way too early!
Meanwhile, at NCEP, the GFS model shows a clear track heading Northwest towards the USA coastline near Georgia and South Carolina: