Hurricane drought to end? Models show Hurricane on track for East Coast

While we enjoy a 4300+ day drought of major hurricanes making landfall on the USA, hurricane expert Dr. Ryan MAue opines on Twitter about the possibilities for a Hurricane hitting the Atlantic Coast. He shows model output for a powerful hurricane to develop, with some predcted tracks showing US landfall around South Carolina, but cautions that it’s still very early, and some tracks show it turning out to sea. He writes in a series of Tweets:

Hurricane season may ramp up a bit over the next 7-10 days w/action in southern Gulf of Mexico and in the far Atlantic w/Cape Verde system.

A 10-12 day forecast of a developing tropical storm off the coast of Africa is the next frontier of tropical weather forecasting in 2020s.

Both mesoscale hurricane models HMON and HWRF develop wave off Africa (Invest 99L) into a powerful hurricane in 5-days in open Atlantic.

Invest 99L blows up to major hurricane in latest GFS model but ensemble system spaghetti from previous run curves out to sea. Way too early!

Meanwhile, at NCEP, the GFS model shows a clear track heading Northwest towards the USA coastline near Georgia and South Carolina:


123 thoughts on “Hurricane drought to end? Models show Hurricane on track for East Coast

  1. Why my mother-in-law booked us all a family cruise to the caribbean for the second week of August Ill never understand.

    • Your mother-in-law is a wise lady, she intends to test your mental strength and see how you are going to look after the well being of her offspring in a traumatic situation.
      Hope all ends well and you past the test with the flying colours. Good luck to all of you.

    • Bargain deals, cheap rum, and maybe she wanted a chance to see a hurricane up close and personal? And isn’t August the worst time to visit the Caribbean, not because of the tropical storm season, but because that’s the month when the tradewinds die and you feel the heat? You might actually be hoping for a storm.

    • Aside from the hurricane possibilities (not even any such “danger”), the entire Gulf area in mid-August is HOT. (Did I mention “hot” and “humid”?) And, when it is not “hot”, it is even “hotter” …..

      • According to a recent “study,” you already died from the heat and humidity, RACookPE1978.

      • Today I worked outside in the sun in SW Florida from noon to about 5:30.
        It was really very hot.
        But it was not so much the heat, as the humidi…screw that…it was the heat!

    • Remember Steve, an Adventure is somebody else having a bad day.
      Here’s hoping you have a very quiet and uneventful time.

    • Hurricanes are good for us. They cool the planet.
      On average, hurricanes don’t do much in the way of damage; mostly they just stir up a lot of water and keep the fishes awake at night.
      On rare occasions, hurricanes blow trees down on houses that are built too close to the ocean.
      If banging your head on a brick wall hurts your head try this remedy:
      STOP banging you head on a brick wall !!

      • “On average, hurricanes don’t do much in the way of damage”
        Somewhat missing the point.

      • On average, when your house is destroyed, it does not matter to you what the averages say.

      • I think that is what schitzree meant by “an Adventure is somebody else having a bad day”

  2. Eh, way to early for landfall prediction, with luck, that SC prediction will be wrong. Really don’t want to be working with what I do in the middle of a hurricane, and I’m be on Hilton Head Island then. 😮

    • For the alarmist ….. with luck it will be right. You know they are chomping at the bit to do the 24/7 coverage, leading up to, during, and for months after a landfall!

  3. We’re headed down from the NE to that region to visit friends and family that weekend. Boy, I hope this prediction is wrong.

    • When I was at Colorado State, we had a class project using historical data to try and quantify the $damages and the $benefits to water resources/supplies in SE USA. In short, we found that the $benefits for water resources/supply far outweigh the $damages.
      We did not try and put a $cost to human injuries and death because we didn’t know how and thought that by doing so we wold end up with an insoluble problem.

    • Keep in mind that the ground moisture left behind by a departing tropical storm or hurricane, can add to eclipse time humidity, which can condense into cloud as the Moon obscures the Sun. If there is less than a 15 degree difference between dew point and temperature, the condensation becomes likely and approaches certainty as that difference diminishes!

    • qam1,
      You can be one of the many folks headed to Oregon for the event.
      There are so many people headed there porta-potties have been depleted in other western states.
      The National Guard is preparing.
      When all the folks arrive with all their stuff — motorhomes, campers, beer —
      the region will sink, stressing the Cascadia Subduction Zone, trigger a massive seismic event,
      and initiating a tsunami that will reach Japan.
      A simple hurricane along the east coast of North America will merit minor interest.

      • (slow clap) Bravo, Sir, bravo! I can see it, like those cheezy 1970s disaster movies, Charlton Heston, Ernest Borgnine, George Kennedy, Gene Hackman and Robert Stack desperately struggling to avert disaster!

      • For it to be a cheesy disaster movie, a mining company would need to be the villain, ran by a guy wearing a suit and a cowboy hat smoking a fat stogie.

      • Don’t forget to add Yellowstone blowing up. That’s been the big worry among Preppers the last year or two.

    • Won’t likely disturb the eclipse to any extent; the moon is too far away to suffer any damage.

  4. Checking AccuWeather and there is a strong rotation building just below 10 lat and just east of 35 long. Running the AW hurricane map animation it appears to be tracking on strong east to west course as of 07:45 8/4/17, no apparent northern drift yet. It could run into the Caribbean and really build or direct line into the northern coastal region of South America. Kinda early to be calling a landfall at all, much less well up the US east coast.

    • 50% chance of developing cyclonic action in the next 48h. Definitely too early to talk about major hurricane hitting USA.
      1. A broad and elongated area of low pressure is producing disorganized
      shower and thunderstorm activity several hundred miles south and
      southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions
      appear conducive for this system to consolidate and develop during
      the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by
      the early or middle part of next week while moving
      west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic
      * Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
      * Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.

      • A lot of things have to fall into place for a hurricane to form and they have to remain favorable for it to strengthen.

      • Category 6 at least, regardless of what the actual recorded windspeed may be at any land side weather stations.
        In fact, it may be so bad they have to make up a brand new measuring system based on something other then wind speed, barometric pressure, or ACE, since none of those will manage to measure just how incredibly monstrous this storm might be.
        Maybe a count of how many scary adjectives gets tacked onto it’s name?
        “Super Mega Unprecedented Storm (name)? Why it’s a 3 on the Goreometer scale.”

      • Well we could build more cities on the coast at the bottom of swimming pools, so that when hurricanes go over the top of the pool walls, they get filled nice and deep with water.
        If it woks for N’orlins, it could work anywhere.
        And it helps to build an artificial lake on the other side of the city, so there is water to come from that side when the walls come tumbling down.

    • It is normal, hurricanes come ashore, or they don’t, either is normal. Thats the fun part, its like a box of chocolates!

      • And Dave, since nothing ever happens twice, then you are correct; you get one roll of the dice, and then it is a new game.

  5. “Way too early?”, he tweets.
    Considering it is still a disturbance (not even a depression with a defined circulation) I would say “Yes1′ If wishes were vorticity then every system would spin up like the Canadian Model.

    • Well Mumblypeg, so long as the earth rotates, we will have things that spin on the surface.

      • Just like the Russians fixing the US election. Still haven’t found the one member of the Electoral college who claims that Putin told it to vote for Bernie Sanders. Now it has become a best seller novel.

    • I check AccuWeather Hurricane center, Atlantic Basin, every morning(got family and friends in hurricane zones) so yea, I clicked. And HotScot is correct.

  6. Last October, within 24 hours of closest approach, the NHS forecast Hurricane Matthew to be over my head as a Cat IV storm. Actual approach was about 50 miles away and a much weaker cat II. We didn’t get hurricane force winds. That’s an enormous difference in the risk from the storm, since wind damage scales as velocity squared.
    I find it hard to believe prediction has gotten so much better in less than a year that they can predict where a storm is going to hit and its intensity 10 days out.
    There remains a chance that the NHS is always predicting the worst possible scenario to try to scare people into evacuating, as evidenced that my local forecast office issued a much more accurate forecast than the NHS did. Why? Wasn’t the National Weather Service successfully sued for missing a forecast due to a broken weather buoy off New England 10 or 20 years ago?

    • SiGraybeard.
      The problem is they only watch the atlantic hurricanes. That is only one of three active basins, with the western Pacific being the most robust.
      When a cyclone can go from zero to H3 and back to zero in three days, something else is the driving factor other than sea temperature being a primary driver.

    • I was told once by a forecaster at NHC/NWS Melbourne (FL), that they DO make it worse than expected “so those stupid Islanders would get out of the way sooner”.

  7. In the next seven to ten days, I predict highly unlikely, unless NH pressure increases and atmospheric transport volume increases.
    It is the end of summer, and that can be influencial.
    And for South Carolina, I hope I am correct.
    By the 14th we will know.

    • I re-read the top post, “a powerful hurricane in five days” equals the 9th.
      Watch the Arctic sea ice area, it is an indicator of NH pressure and atmospheric volume displacement which has favoured transport into the Arctic so far this year.
      If it deviates downwards it is increasing.

  8. Hmm, I was thinking of going to an event on Thomson Island (Boston Harbor) the 15th, but will wait and see now.

  9. The last several hurricanes that were forecast to impact the region where I live were a no-show and produced no rain. Is that a definition of a hurricane drought? I need to water my garden more often in the wake of a hurricane than if there is just a pop-up thunderstorm.
    Much of the post-Sandy storm delivered only a couple of inches of rain inland whereas I often get 3 – 4 inches of rain in a short time (less than an hour) from the pop-ups. Oh yea … never had wind damage as a result of a hurricane but those pop-up cause frequent roof/tree damage and power outages.
    Oh yea … The pop-ups come with little or no warning. The hurricane threat lasts for a week or two and seldom if ever shows up.

    • In 1954 Hurricane Hazel struck the east coast as a cat 5, and killed around 100 people, in approximately the same area as super storm Sandy. It went all the way to Toronto where it killed another 81 people. As a young lad at the time, I can just barely remember it. The name Hazel was officially retired from being used as a name for an Atlantic hurricane. If the same size of storm were to hit same areas today, the losses would likely be much greater. It happened before, so it could happen again.

      • Not to pick nits, but Hazel was a Cat 4 at landfall, and it came ashore near Myrtle Beach, far, far away from where Sandy did (New Jersey). While monetary destruction would be heavy, loss of life would be less. People are more hurricane-savy now then sixty years ago, warnings are better, and evacuation infrastructure is better.

      • Hurricane Hazel did not strike Ontario… another storm did! In his 1955 paper in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Canadian Meteorological Service senior meteorologist, John Knox, described how the extratropical transition of Hazel resulted in southern Ontario being hit by a dangerous storm that was made more powerful by the hurricane… but it was a different storm. In describing the evolution of this new storm, Knox labelled Hazel the hurricane, as “Hazel I”, while the new storm centre which formed south of the Great Lakes was labelled, “Hazel II”. The development of “Hazel II” resulted in an apparent northwestward-jump of the storm centre and many storm track climatologies mistakenly show Hazel’s motion as continuous just south of Lake Ontario. The map below shows the tracks of Hazel I & II.

      • Hurricane Hazel did hit Toronto.
        Hazel was projected to dissipate, but instead re-intensified unexpectedly and rapidly, pounding the Toronto region with winds that reached 110 kilometres per hour (68 mph) and 285 millimetres (11.23 inches) of rain in 48 hours.

      • Mumbles McGuirck
        I guess it was 6 MPH short of a 5. As far as where it hit I only meant the general area.

  10. Bound to happen sooner or later. Invest 99L somethingnto keep an eye on, but still far too early to predict anything. The track ensemble differences between GECF and EMCWF say it all.

    • At least a good reminder that if you have not already put your hurricane kit together you need to get it done.

  11. I must admit that I am curious as to how the media will portray the next big hurricane. They have a bit of an issue in that they haven’t had one to report on in over a decade, but on the other hand they could use it to show how bad they really are and since people have gotten use to no hurricanes, they could play it up for the youth.
    People under 25 or so really have no idea about these things. At 13 or 14 most kids don’t care about the weather news, and it has been that long since a big one hit. Those under 25 will be freaked out.

    • If we get a landfalling major hurricane this year, it is certain that the media will play it up big time. They play everything up big time. Yet it will be very difficult to blame it on global warming, since we have smashed the record for NO major hurricanes hitting the US. 97 major hurricanes have hit the us coast in the past 166 years, for an average of 6 major hurricanes every 10 years. If we have two major hurricanes this year, we will still be 4 below average. It would be really disingenuous to claim that AGW is making these things worse.

      • “It would be really disingenuous to claim that AGW is making these things worse.”
        Being disingenuous is a media specialty. I have no doubt that the next major hurricane that hits the US will be portrayed by the MSM as a harbinger of Thermogeddon. Then we will have another long break and repeat the cycle. CAGW is the story-line that keeps on giving.

  12. Maybe it will hit Mass. They deserve it with Markey and the ‘who could have known’ policy scammer.

  13. Whether this storm materializes & / or hits the US is not as relevant as the fact that at some point the hurricane drought will end. Maybe this season, maybe next season, maybe even further out but it will happen at some point.

    • The local news will do poorly as usual. Hate to say but the most sane coverage comes from climate change central aka The weather channel. A local news guy wanted to show how much blowing debris was an issue. He threw a palm frond in the air exclaiming look at that. He couldn’t see but the palm branch mostly just fell. One news lady was standing by a storm drain and said if it had rained this could have been flooded.
      Also hate to admit but my opinion, The best hurricane model interpretations come from Jeff Masters. You just have to get over the Amen Corner chanting global warming. I also like the historical tracks. If there looks like a trend, I use that as a confidence (or not factor) in the model tracks.
      It’s also good to be in the middle of the 10 day track. It’s almost capricious; I’ve never seen a 10 day track hold up but I only look at the storms that might impact me.

  14. I bet a nickel it will go out to sea before hitting land. This cold front sweeping the nation is quite impressive and will be moving offshore in the next few days and take the tropical system with it.

  15. good send it to Belgium we need LOTS of rain here 🙂 then they have something breaking news worthy as well….

  16. Well checking NOAA/NWS I find two tropical disturbances; one in the Caribbean with a 20% chance of becoming a Tropical Depression with 48 hours and the second west of Cabo Verde islands with a 50% chance of becoming a TD within 48 hours. At this point I ain’t worried and I don’t think the modellers should be either. NOAA has a good handle on hurricane forecasting and tracking.

    • The one in the Caribbean could strengthen in the GOM but would most likely head west into Mexico.

  17. I have a real bad feeling about the coming 8-10 weeks of the hurricane season.
    Really very bad…and that was before finding this story.
    I was just reviewing the path and intensity maps of Donna in 1960, and saw that it went right over where my house now stands.
    Now this.
    Thanks a heap!

    • Are you prepared? Got time, go get that plywood(and keep it when you take it down, totally reusable!), load up on bottled water(can store for several years), plenty of canned goods and such that don’t need much cooking(again, stores for several years), toilet paper(more valuable than gold, trust me),lots of toilet paper, plenty of 1lb propane bottles and some lanterns and a camp stove, plenty of batteries(batteries to gold ratio very high) and lots of analgesics(for the headaches induced from all your neighbors whining&crying) and you should be good to go! And if it comes to NatGuard and FEMA coming in load up on all the MREs and bottled water they will give you(again, long term storage) and only eat one(1) package meal MRE per day. You eat 3 a day and you will look like Micheal Moore in short order!!!!! Can’t stress that last item enough!!!!

      • I bought a house with automatic electric shutters, cement block construction, concrete tile hip roof, at 24′ above sea level and over 30 miles inland.
        I have lived through them, and I know I would regret ever buying a house that will sooner or later be flooded or that is not built to stand up to wind, or than needs days of prep every time a storm threatens.
        That may happen here as well, but it is less likely by far.
        One thing I have not done yet is get a whole house stand-bye generator and a huge underground propane tank. I have guys coming this week to give me estimates…I want to put it in the attic space above the garage, with the AC unit. I am hoping it can be put there.

        • It ought to work, as long as the joist structure is sufficiently strong, just keep in mind that while running it will be a bit loud. As for evacing, make that choice well be for the coastal rush, you definitely do not want to ride out a storm in a car on the side of the road. You would be better off holding in place.

      • I eat a lot of nuts and dried fruit.
        Once the back-up generator is in, I will have no worries about food or water…I have a 20,000 pool and a well.
        If it looks real bad, I am leaving though.
        It is crazy to stay in the path of a major hurricane.
        Anything under about 110 MPH, I will stay.
        Between 110 and 130, it is very iffy.
        A full cat 5…later much.
        Only reason to stay would be if it happens in a way that clogs the roads with evacuees.
        I am not getting stuck in a car out on the road, that is for sure.

  18. Anthony..little typing error….”He shows model output for a powerful hurricane to develop, with some predcted (predicted) ?

  19. The big tell that the climatocracy is hardly practicing science at all:
    The lack of interest in researching this amazing and beneficial hurricane drought we have experienced in the Atlantic Hurricane basin.

  20. everyone should know that the GCMs are notorious out at 10 days and beyond. The people who run these things nightly, have been very unimpressive for years, now over a decade in my watching with interest. At 2 days they tend to be quite accurate. In between their results scale with time. Its still early in the Cape Verde phase of this season so things might start to reverse soon. Seasonal peak is coming in about a month. Still this season seems to be much like the prior many seasons with a weak first half. Plus there is the possibility of a shift towards El Nino in the Pacific as the year progresses. That tends to mean reduced Atlantic activity for some reason probably related to wind shear.

  21. June too soon
    July stand by
    August go you must
    September remember
    October all over
    19th C naval saw

  22. While I realize it is still early, and things can change. This low pressure system now has a 0% of cyclone forming a in the next 48h and 30% in the next 5 days. I think it is a dud.

  23. What’s interesting here is just how spectacularly wrong the model was. Dr. Maue’s tweet that started this article said, Both mesoscale hurricane models HMON and HWRF develop wave off Africa (Invest 99L) into a powerful hurricane in 5-days in open Atlantic. It’s six days later and 99L isn’t a powerful hurricane; it isn’t even a tropical storm. It’s still a disorganized wave with the NHC giving it a 20% chance of development in the next 48 hours, up to 40% chance within 5 days. The spaghetti runs show it re-curving out to the North Atlantic, staying a few hundred miles offshore. I suppose they could have been a little less wrong, it could have dissipated, but that’s not much less wrong.
    The lead in quote from Dr. Maue was A 10-12 day forecast of a developing tropical storm off the coast of Africa is the next frontier of tropical weather forecasting in 2020s. I suppose we have to wait for the 2020s – maybe the late 2020s – because these results sure aren’t there, yet.

    • I suppose they could have been a little less wrong, it could have dissipated, but that’s not much less wrong. I really need to stop re-wording things while I’m in the process of writing. That was supposed to say, I suppose they could have been a little more wrong, it could have dissipated, but that’s not much more wrong.

    • Just looked at Weather Channel/weather underground, whatever they are calling themselves and they are still slobbering in trembling anticipation of 99L turning into a hurricane and destroying large swaths of the East Coast. What a bucket of putz.

  24. For the record, it’s going to be a dud.
    Finally became a TS, say hello to Gert. Fish hooking to the Northeast, half way between US mainland and Bermuda. Missed everything and has a slight chance to reach Cat1 out in the middle of the North Atlantic in the next day or so.
    Mon Aug 14 2017.
    Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
    1030 UTC.
    Tropical Storm Gert is centered near 29.7N 72.2W at 14/0900 UTC,
    moving toward the north-northwest, or 345 degrees, at 8 kt. Estimated
    minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
    is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. The system is expected to remain
    east of the United States, taking a turn toward the north today,
    followed by a turn toward the north- northeast tonight.

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