While we enjoy a 4300+ day drought of major hurricanes making landfall on the USA, hurricane expert Dr. Ryan MAue opines on Twitter about the possibilities for a Hurricane hitting the Atlantic Coast. He shows model output for a powerful hurricane to develop, with some predcted tracks showing US landfall around South Carolina, but cautions that it’s still very early, and some tracks show it turning out to sea. He writes in a series of Tweets:
Hurricane season may ramp up a bit over the next 7-10 days w/action in southern Gulf of Mexico and in the far Atlantic w/Cape Verde system.
A 10-12 day forecast of a developing tropical storm off the coast of Africa is the next frontier of tropical weather forecasting in 2020s.
Both mesoscale hurricane models HMON and HWRF develop wave off Africa (Invest 99L) into a powerful hurricane in 5-days in open Atlantic.
Invest 99L blows up to major hurricane in latest GFS model but ensemble system spaghetti from previous run curves out to sea. Way too early!
Meanwhile, at NCEP, the GFS model shows a clear track heading Northwest towards the USA coastline near Georgia and South Carolina:
Source:
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http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_99.gif
http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al992017_analogs.png
oops, images via
http://flhurricane.com/
Well checking NOAA/NWS I find two tropical disturbances; one in the Caribbean with a 20% chance of becoming a Tropical Depression with 48 hours and the second west of Cabo Verde islands with a 50% chance of becoming a TD within 48 hours. At this point I ain’t worried and I don’t think the modellers should be either. NOAA has a good handle on hurricane forecasting and tracking.
The one in the Caribbean could strengthen in the GOM but would most likely head west into Mexico.
“NOAA has a good handle on hurricane forecasting and tracking.”
?zoom=2
Don’t you mean NHC?
“NHC Not Avail”
I have a real bad feeling about the coming 8-10 weeks of the hurricane season.
Really very bad…and that was before finding this story.
I was just reviewing the path and intensity maps of Donna in 1960, and saw that it went right over where my house now stands.
Now this.
Great!
Thanks a heap!
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/donna1960/60091016_z.gif
http://www.coastalbreezenews.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Donna7.gif
http://fcit.usf.edu/florida/maps/pages/12300/f12340/f12340.jpg
Are you prepared? Got time, go get that plywood(and keep it when you take it down, totally reusable!), load up on bottled water(can store for several years), plenty of canned goods and such that don’t need much cooking(again, stores for several years), toilet paper(more valuable than gold, trust me),lots of toilet paper, plenty of 1lb propane bottles and some lanterns and a camp stove, plenty of batteries(batteries to gold ratio very high) and lots of analgesics(for the headaches induced from all your neighbors whining&crying) and you should be good to go! And if it comes to NatGuard and FEMA coming in load up on all the MREs and bottled water they will give you(again, long term storage) and only eat one(1) package meal MRE per day. You eat 3 a day and you will look like Micheal Moore in short order!!!!! Can’t stress that last item enough!!!!
I bought a house with automatic electric shutters, cement block construction, concrete tile hip roof, at 24′ above sea level and over 30 miles inland.
I have lived through them, and I know I would regret ever buying a house that will sooner or later be flooded or that is not built to stand up to wind, or than needs days of prep every time a storm threatens.
That may happen here as well, but it is less likely by far.
One thing I have not done yet is get a whole house stand-bye generator and a huge underground propane tank. I have guys coming this week to give me estimates…I want to put it in the attic space above the garage, with the AC unit. I am hoping it can be put there.
It ought to work, as long as the joist structure is sufficiently strong, just keep in mind that while running it will be a bit loud. As for evacing, make that choice well be for the coastal rush, you definitely do not want to ride out a storm in a car on the side of the road. You would be better off holding in place.
I eat a lot of nuts and dried fruit.
Once the back-up generator is in, I will have no worries about food or water…I have a 20,000 pool and a well.
If it looks real bad, I am leaving though.
It is crazy to stay in the path of a major hurricane.
Anything under about 110 MPH, I will stay.
Between 110 and 130, it is very iffy.
A full cat 5…later much.
Only reason to stay would be if it happens in a way that clogs the roads with evacuees.
I am not getting stuck in a car out on the road, that is for sure.
Anthony..little typing error….”He shows model output for a powerful hurricane to develop, with some predcted (predicted) ?
Whatever he predcted, it ain’t happenin’. AccuWeather shows it as a disorganized blob still along 10 Lat and passing through 45 long, https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-57.74,16.34,775 Shows a small rotation area and a sac to the west that does not appear to be encouraging any development, so far.
The big tell that the climatocracy is hardly practicing science at all:
The lack of interest in researching this amazing and beneficial hurricane drought we have experienced in the Atlantic Hurricane basin.
still no long runner evident in the MDR
everyone should know that the GCMs are notorious out at 10 days and beyond. The people who run these things nightly, have been very unimpressive for years, now over a decade in my watching with interest. At 2 days they tend to be quite accurate. In between their results scale with time. Its still early in the Cape Verde phase of this season so things might start to reverse soon. Seasonal peak is coming in about a month. Still this season seems to be much like the prior many seasons with a weak first half. Plus there is the possibility of a shift towards El Nino in the Pacific as the year progresses. That tends to mean reduced Atlantic activity for some reason probably related to wind shear.
June too soon
July stand by
August go you must
September remember
October all over
19th C naval saw
While I realize it is still early, and things can change. This low pressure system now has a 0% of cyclone forming a in the next 48h and 30% in the next 5 days. I think it is a dud.
What’s interesting here is just how spectacularly wrong the model was. Dr. Maue’s tweet that started this article said, Both mesoscale hurricane models HMON and HWRF develop wave off Africa (Invest 99L) into a powerful hurricane in 5-days in open Atlantic. It’s six days later and 99L isn’t a powerful hurricane; it isn’t even a tropical storm. It’s still a disorganized wave with the NHC giving it a 20% chance of development in the next 48 hours, up to 40% chance within 5 days. The spaghetti runs show it re-curving out to the North Atlantic, staying a few hundred miles offshore. I suppose they could have been a little less wrong, it could have dissipated, but that’s not much less wrong.
The lead in quote from Dr. Maue was A 10-12 day forecast of a developing tropical storm off the coast of Africa is the next frontier of tropical weather forecasting in 2020s. I suppose we have to wait for the 2020s – maybe the late 2020s – because these results sure aren’t there, yet.
I suppose they could have been a little less wrong, it could have dissipated, but that’s not much less wrong. I really need to stop re-wording things while I’m in the process of writing. That was supposed to say, I suppose they could have been a little more wrong, it could have dissipated, but that’s not much more wrong.
Just looked at Weather Channel/weather underground, whatever they are calling themselves and they are still slobbering in trembling anticipation of 99L turning into a hurricane and destroying large swaths of the East Coast. What a bucket of putz.
For the record, it’s going to be a dud.
Finally became a TS, say hello to Gert. Fish hooking to the Northeast, half way between US mainland and Bermuda. Missed everything and has a slight chance to reach Cat1 out in the middle of the North Atlantic in the next day or so.
Mon Aug 14 2017.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.
Tropical Storm Gert is centered near 29.7N 72.2W at 14/0900 UTC,
moving toward the north-northwest, or 345 degrees, at 8 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1009 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. The system is expected to remain
east of the United States, taking a turn toward the north today,
followed by a turn toward the north- northeast tonight.