By Larry Kummer. From the Fabius Maximus website.
Summary: Now that the alarmists have had their day trumpeting the IPCC’s worst case scenario (it’s unlikely and becoming more so), let’s look at their best case scenario (hidden by journalists). The risk probabilities are asymmetric: the good news is more likely than the bad news. This is inspirational, telling people that we can make a better world.
“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”
— Attributed to Roy Charles Amara as paraphrased by Robert X. Cringely.
The IPCC’s AR5 used four scenarios to discuss the future of climate change. These Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) describe trends for future emissions, concentrations, and land-use, ending with radiative forcing levels of 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 W/m2 by 2100. The worst case is RCP8.5. It assumes ugly changes in long-standing trends of population growth and technological development. It is unlikely, and becoming more so each year. But it allows climate activists and click-hungry journalists to spin useful nightmares to terrify the public.
The middle two scenarios seem likely, RCP4.5 and RCP6.0. Both would have ill effects on the world, adding to the stress from increase in pollution and population growth. Neither are Armageddon (combined with our other problems, RCP8.5 might be close to Armageddon).
RCP2.6 is the ignored orphan. It provides no sad stories for journalists and no propaganda for activists. In a sane world it would be headline news, showing us a feasible future achievable — with some work. But not like the revolution activists advocate. See the best guide to this path to a better world.
“RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C.” by Detlef P. van Vuuren et al. in Climatic Change, November 2011.
This paper is too complex to summarize here. Let’s look at the key points about this vision of the future, and how it is already happening.
One way to get to negative emissions by the 2020s.
From “Ecosystem Services, Land Use Change and future Emission Pathways”
by Andy Wiltshire of the UK Met Office.
A decline in the use of fossil fuels after 2020 contributes most to reduced emissions, along with a shift to biofuels and carbon-capture systems. How can that be done? In the below graph, Detlef P. van Vuuren et al. shows one path to negative emissions while energy consumption continues to grow. Like most of these projections, they assume a century of tech stagnation — so that coal becomes the fuel of the future. CCS is carbon capture and storage. There are no signs whatsoever of this happening.
Primary energy use per year (in EJ), by source.
Explaining one of the good paths to the future.
Detlef P. van Vuuren et al. explains one path, relying on strong government policies. Low assumptions for technological progress is a prudent conservatism in the construction of the RCPs, but that is seldom mentioned by the fear-mongers that dominate the news media.
“Clearly, emissions would need to decline substantially in order to reach a level of 2.6 W/m2 by the end of the century. The cumulative emission reduction over the century amounts to about 70% and the emission reduction in 2100 to more than 95% compared to baseline. …The emission reduction rates for methane and nitrous oxide are less than for CO2. The reason is that the abatement potential for several important sources of these gases is limited. …
“Climate policy leads to an improvement in energy efficiency, more use of {carbon capture and storage (CCS)}, increased use of bioenergy, and some increase in the use of nuclear power and PV/Wind. PV/wind increase their market share in the energy system but the increase in absolute terms is only small in this scenario, caused by 1) other options (e.g. CCS) being more economic, 2) limitations associated with intermittent nature of renewables, and 3) the share of power in total energy use. …
“Both the IMAGE calculations and the current literature suggest that there are a number of key conditions that need to be met in order to achieve the required level of emission reductions.
“First of all, emissions need to be reduced rapidly (around 4% of 2000 emissions annually) over a period of decades. This requires an improvement of greenhouse gas intensity of around 5–6% per year, considerably above the historical rates of around 1–2% per year. …
“Secondly, achieving the ambitious emission reductions associated with the RCP2.6 requires sufficient potential to reduce emissions for all major emission sources. In RCP2.6, CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use are reduced by a combination of energy efficiency, increased use of renewables and nuclear power, use of carbon capture and storage and increased use of bioenergy. …
“The third important condition is that non-CO2 gases are strongly reduced.”
How can we do this?
Cost of solar cells.……..
There are two keys to achieving RCP2.6 without massive government policy action. First, replacing coal as a primary source for electric generation. Second, replacing petroleum liquid fuels as a primary source for cars.
The first is already happening. Renewable energy sources (e.g., solar, wind, geothermal) are slowly becoming able to provide substantial grid power. For example, see the graph on the right showing Swanson’s Law in action, the relationship of solar cell costs to volume.
For the near future, substitution of natural gas for coal will make the most difference. Burning coal to produce a million BTUs of energy produces an average of 210 pounds of CO2; burning natural gas to do so produces 117 pounds of CO2 (see coal produced and CO2 emitted per EIA) — a reduction of 45%! For details read Coal bankruptcies point to a better future for our climate.
The second is also already happening. Volvo plans to make only hybrid or all-electric cars by 2019. Toyota plans to sell a car in 2022 powered by a solid state battery that significantly increases driving range and reduces charging time. Norway plans to allow sale only of electric cars after 2025. India is aiming for 2030. Britain will ban sales of gas and diesel cars after 2040. As will France. These are just first movers in this race.
Looking further out, a host of radical new batteries are under development. For example, U Texas-Austin engineers led by Professor John Goodenough, co-inventor of the lithium-ion battery, have developed the first all-solid-state battery cells that could lead to safer, faster-charging, longer-lasting rechargeable batteries (see their press release and their paper in Energy & Environmental Science, Jan 2017).
If pushed with government policies, these measure can push us towards the RCP2.6 scenario during the 2020s. To get the rest of the way we will need breakthroughs that give us new energy sources. These are already under development. A 2015 report by Third Way describes that some have matured to the stage attracting private capital:
“The American energy sector has experienced enormous technological innovation over the past decade in everything from renewables (solar and wind power), to extraction (hydraulic fracturing), to storage (advanced batteries), to consumer efficiency (advanced thermostats). What has gone largely unnoticed is that nuclear power is poised to join the innovation list.
“A new generation of engineers, entrepreneurs and investors are working to commercialize innovative and advanced nuclear reactors. …Third Way has found that there are nearly 50 companies, backed by more than $1.3 billion in private capital, developing plans for new nuclear plants in the U.S. and Canada. The mix includes startups and big-name investors like Bill Gates, all placing bets on a nuclear comeback, hoping to get the technology in position to win in an increasingly carbon-constrained world.”
More daring are projects to harness fusion. Nature reviewed them in this 2016 article. Most interesting is Tri Alpha Energy (see Wikipedia) was founded in 1998 and has raised $150 million from hard-nosed capitalists ($500 million according to the company, $700 million per Pitchbook). Their fifth-generation reactor, “Norman”, achieved first plasma this month. An article in this month’s Scientific Reports describes how the previous generation reactor (C-2U) …
“led to the discovery of an unexpected record confinement regime with positive net heating power in a field-reversed configuration plasma, characterised by a >50% reduction in the energy loss rate and concomitant increase in ion temperature and total plasma energy.”
Animation of their previous machine at work, the C-2U.
“Watch an animation of Tri Alpha Energy’s C-2U machine in action. It is 23 meters long. The machine forms two smoke rings of plasma and fires them toward the middle to merge into a bigger FRC. There they turn kinetic energy into heat.”
Is this unrealistic? No. We need only continue current trends.
Energy efficiency has been improving for decades, as shown in this graph from “Reaching peak emissions” by Robert B. Jackson, Nature Climate Change, January 2016 (also see energy efficiency by nation from the World Bank). New technologies, such as cheaper and better batteries, can take this trend to levels we can only imagine today.
Progress has been fastest in the developed nations. For example, one form of energy intensity — electricity use/GDP — has been declining in the US since 1976. Per capita electricity consumption has been declining in the US since 1999. See this April 2017 Bloomberg article for details (e.g., “most other developed countries have experienced a plateauing or decline in electricity use similar to that in the U.S. over the past decade.”).
The results are already visible — except in the mainstream news. Growth in CO2 emissions was strong during the China-driven boom years of 2000-09, but has been slowing during the past five years. Emissions were flat in 2014-15, and are estimated to have grown only slightly in 2016. This graph is from”Global Carbon Budget 2016” by Corinne Le Quéré et al in Earth System Science Data, 14 November 2016. Click to enlarge.
The bottom line: Co2 levels in an RCP2.6 world
Here are predictions of humanity’s CO2 emissions in three RCP scenarios, at decade intervals. Green is RCP2.6, blue is RCP4.5, and red is RCP6.0. RCP8.5 is off this scale. In RCP2.6 CO2 emissions steeply fall in the 2020s. Graph is from the interactive tool at the RCP Database.
What about levels of greenhouse gasses (GHG)? This shows the total expressed as equivalent of CO2 (in parts per million). For reasons discussed above, they only decline — and slowly — starting in the 2040s. By 2100 the level is … It does not matter. That is far beyond what we can reliably predict now, any more than the people of 1934 could predict our world of today.
What happens to global atmosphere and ocean temperatures in the world of RCP2.6? Estimates vary. The rise is probably close to 2 degrees Centigrade over pre-industrial levels, a long-standing goal for limiting anthropogenic climate change.
Why we don’t hear more good news?
The answer can be seen from readers’ reaction to the 4,000+ posts on the FM website. “If it bleeds, it leads.” People want to read scary stories. They want to read exciting stories cheering our side’s angelic warriors — and hissing at our foes, satan’s minions. Good news does not get big traffic. We love scary stories. The reason why reveals a secret about America.
For More Information
If you liked this post, like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter. For more information about this vital issue see the posts about the RCPs, about the keys to understanding climate change and these posts about the politics of climate change…
- About RCP8.5: Is our certain fate a coal-burning climate apocalypse? No!
- Manufacturing climate nightmares: misusing science to create horrific predictions.
- Ignoring science to convince the public that we’re doomed by climate change.
- “Good news for the New Year! Salon explains that the global climate emergency is over.“
- Good news! Coal bankruptcies point to a better future for our climate.
- Good news from America about climate change, leading the way to success.
- Stratfor gives us good news, showing when renewables will replace fossil fuels.
- Focusing on worst case climate futures doesn’t work. It shouldn’t work.
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The good news, for anyone paying attention, is that we do not need to be at all concerned about CO2 levels. It is not a pollutant, and increasing its portion of the atmosphere will increase crop yields. Further, any warming that does occur will be welcome, possibly letting winters become less strenuous and dangerous to endure. The entire article is a waste of space, depending as it does on a panic-driven view of CO2.
+1
++
What is supposed to be the “good news” here??
This is blatant contradiction. CCS is a massive and pointless waste of energy. How can you pretend to be advocating energy efficiency whilst at the same time proposing waste enormous proportions of generated power pushing carbon back into the ground. It’s totally disingenuous.
How is this “good news” ? This is just the alarmists’ “leave it in the ground” crap which means failing to exploit available resources and throw away perfectly good petroleum powered vehicles and lose the freedom of movement they provide.
Owning an electric car controlled ultimately by the manufacturer or the state and which can be disabled remotely and tracks your every movement is NOT “good news” . Sorry.
+ 2
+3
So far the evidence seems to indicate that biofuels production and combustion results in little or no reduction in net CO2 emissions. Ditto batteries for electric cars. Ditto windpower, ditto solar power.
I wonder about carbon capture? Where does the energy come from for that? Or is it the promise of another free lunch?
Could you give us some links to show that your personal opinion has any science behind it? Nope?
“The mean net plant growth for all treatment combinations with elevated CO2 was about 4.9 tons per acre — compared to roughly 5.5 tons per acre for all treatment combinations in which CO2 levels were kept normal”.
This is an extract from a study completed by Stanford. Here is the link to the full article,
http://news.stanford.edu/pr/02/jasperplots124.html
Steve here are over 100 published science papers showing the very opposite:
From CO2 Science,
Plant Growth Database
http://www.co2science.org/data/plant_growth/plantgrowth.php
Steve, many large Greenhouse nurseries use CO2 generators,to increase plant growth and health. It is why plants looks great when they first arrive at local nurseries,then slowly revert back to a lower level in a week or two.
DFTT … Don’t Feed The Troll.
Please don’t let Steve hijack another thread this week.
Problem here is we are comparing Stanford’s lab experiment with nature. It appears the added ingredient in the Stanford study is catastrophic warming from CO2 emissions something that nature is well missing out on. LOL!
Got a few responses, one was linking to greenhouses, the other called me a troll. I produce a link to a scientific institution and I’m called a troll, WTF? No real science though.I was then told that we are not sure about what’s going to happen, really, so those record temperatures are not enough of an alert, or rapidly melting glaciers over the last 50 years, anyone seeing a trend? Nope, there are none so blind as those who will not see!
[Perhaps most just found your contribution a bit boring “same ol’, same ol'” kind of thing. Don’t be downhearted , perhaps you can come up with something that the readers find stimulating. Perhaps you aren’t used to indifference when you speak but most folk here have a deep understanding of these matters, for and against, so adding to what they know can be tricky. . . . mod]
These aren’t the words of a sceptic I’m afraid. They’re more like the words of a dogmatist at the other end of the scale from the alarmists. . . The truth is that we don’t know. We have insufficient data and insufficient knowledge to be able to state categorically whether AGW will be a real threat or not, if Co2 levels continue to rise. Recent trends of any kind relating to climate can’t yet be extrapolated into facts about the future.
Climate change has always been with us and yes, we don’t know what natural change would have occurred over the last 40 years or so without an increase in Co2 levels. Maybe it’s exactly as it would have been, but we don’t know that for certain. Maybe 20 years from we’ll have a clearer idea of what’s happening, but even then I’d be astonished if we’ll be able to predict exactly what will happen with the Earth’s climate.
As for “any warming that does occur will be welcome . . ” that seems a bit reckless to me. Above a certain, though unknown, temperature level we are likely to suffer markedly raised sea levels and that will cause major problems that we can anticipate but may also cause many others that we can’t. . . . No, “any warming . . ” is just too vague to agree with!. Personally, I’d like Scotland to be warmer, but enough to make a noticeable difference will probably have an impact on sea levels at least. . .
In the meantime it makes sense to opt for a cleaner and healthier planet (I’m thinking of particulates etc from diesel and petrol emissions that are causing health problems) but not at a ridiculous price. The costs shouldn’t outweigh the gains, And it makes sense to fight irrational or disproportionate or dishonest alarmist claims – as well as reckless complacency. A lot more dedicated and objective analysis, investigation and reporting by our best minds, whether scientists or not, is the way to go I believe . ..
Those aren’t the words of a man who can Do Sums.
You are talking in woolly qualitative terms just like the IPCC advocates
where is your evidence to link a warmer Scotland to any sea level rise for example, and how much sea level rise would render it (any more) uninhabitable?
Leo Smith. HI. Actually I come from that generation who were taught to count and I’ve always managed to hold my own with anyone in that department. I’m simply writing in cautious terms because I don’t know what the future holds and none of us knows (I mean really knows on a factual basis) whether there is or isn’t an anthropogenic component in the warming (if any – because I’m not utterly convinced by the claimed temperature change either) that has occurred in the last 40 years. Or do you have FACTS about the future to hand? Enlighten us if you do please. . .
I said I’d like a warmer Scotland, yes, but I was thinking of that in a world context, on the basis that eventually increasing global warmth to a noticeable degree (from which Scotland would benefit) would produce a commensurate sea level rise, with the relationship between the two being roughly directly proportional. If it gets warm enough to melt Greenland and Antarctic ice signicantly faster than at present then we’re likely to have problems! That seems to me to be a reasonable assumption. Or do you think that sea level and global temperature are not connected?
If you’re wondering if I believe the IPCC projections then that’s something different. I’m very sceptical of the whole AGW position actually, but, I could be wrong. It’s not impossible that the IPCC low end projections might not be far off. Think it was Feynman who said that first, we shouldn’t fool ourselves because we are the easiest to fool. Scepticism has to cut both ways . . . I don’t think it’s “wooly” to say that I might be wrong, or that someone I disagree with might actually be right, if only partly! That’s just common sense. And I believe it’s something that many contributors on here need to be reminded of. . . .
@ur momisugly jim hogg July 29, 2017 at 5:42 pm
jim hogg, just because you are ignorant of the “science of the natural world” you are part of, you really shouldn’t be including everyone else as being in “the-same-boat-that-you-are-in” by claiming inclusively, “we don’t know”.
So, the next time, please post the factual statement, to wit …..“I don’t know”.
Anyway, jim h, ….. of course there are learned individuals who would know what natural changes occurred if there had been “no increase in atmospheric CO2 levels over the last 40 years or so”.
“DUH”, the only natural change that could possibly be responsible for the aforesaid is that the temperature of the ocean waters in the Southern Hemisphere had begun a drastic and un-expected “cooling down” (decrease in Summertime temperatures from September thru May).
The “end” of the current Holocene Interglacial Period would also terminate the current rise in atmospheric CO2 ppm, …… followed by a slow decrease in ppm.
The C)2 horsesh*t has to stop.
kummer is griff’s evil twin.
“The entire article is a waste of space…”
Well… As is usual, it is extremely well written, but it could use a bit of (shall we say) “red teaming”. Bart recently summed up red teaming and how it works over at Dr Roy’s blog:
Bart 6/16/2017
“By bringing out adversarial positions that have been suppressed by groupthink, and forcing the herd consensus to acknowledge and confront them.”
The 2C warming over pre-industrial levels is about as groupthink as you can get. (and right up there with the 97% consensus!) As well, the various RCP scenerios… The atmospheric carbon dioxide growth rate has been lock step with the SSTs of the southern ocean since the conception of the MLO data set in 1958. If the future is anything like the past half plus century , then the CO2 growth rate will continue to track with temperature regardless of which RCP is used…
http://www.woodfortrees.org/graph/plot/esrl-co2/from:1958/mean:24/derivative/plot/hadsst3sh/from:1958/scale:0.25/offset:0.1
A science as soft as climate science should never be couched in such definitive language. While it is important to discuss subjects such as RCPs, it’s equally as important to remember that such subjects remain in the realm of theory and conjecture. (AND they should be treated as such)…
You just hit the nail on the head. Climate (Temperature) drives CO2, not the other way around.
I love co 2 , the more the merrier, as a matter of fact I try to breathe at twice the normal rate.
We need at least 1000 ppm to improve our planet with no negative side effects
The ideal scenario would be to modify (genetically engineer/) mankind to be more environmentally friendly.
1. Add chlorophyll to the skin cells so we can produce a good percentage of our energy by standing in the sun.
2. Since we are standing in the sun all day, we should become nocturnal and will require further modification for larger eyes to help us see and reduce electricity use for lighting.
3. Reduce our size as a smaller body mass requires less energy.
Here is what we would look like:
http://tainted-archive.blogspot.ca/2011/08/little-green-men-report-1110998877665.html
Mr Kummer, buying into the IPCC models is a rather regrettable exercise. CCS is impractical, so if one really believes in the Satanic Gasses, nuclear is the only proven technology that works.
Tom,
Please read what I wrote. I explicitly said that the way the RCP2.6 got there was by tech stagnation — and there are better ways. There are a thousand words in this post about how to do it.
This is the same “motion is impossible” thinking seen in most comments on these threads. But it does illustrate the great unmentionable fact I’ve so often pointed to — both skeptics and almarists tend to think in the same manner. The RCP’s assume tech stagnation. So do the skeptics on this thread. (Both also tend to use the same rhetorical tricks.)
But though the dogs bark, the caravan moves on.
Frankly, I don’t care how “RCP2.6 got there”. If RCP2.6 produced the one curve among 100 “Model Runs” that reasonably approximates the actual Satellite/Balloon observations while CO2 continues to rise, then I’ll go with the RCP2.6 “projections” and ignore all the phony assumptions in it.
Larry, seeing RPC 2.6 as “good news” is just like accepting that “the end is nigh” but that the good news is that there is still time repent and save your soul before you die, if you do what we tell you to do.
In this case that means accepting that the UNFCCCP can dictate the energy policy of all countries and states in the world on the basis of rigged science and scam astronomic sums of money from all developed countries to finance they unelected world government.
Sorry, I don’t see the “good news” there.
CCS is a massive and stupid waste of resources that only makes sense if you buy into the most exaggerated projections of failed computer models and manipulated science controlled by activist-scientists pretending to do real science.
I wrote this comment here five years ago:
The Man-Made Global Warming scam becomes evident when one looks at the narrative that spews from the alarmists: Only evil and suffering can come from a warmer Earth. Fossil fueled, Western style prosperity must stop. This is the real agenda. Saving the Earth has little to do with it. Even if the CO2-causes-warming “theory” were true, It still does not absolutely dictate doom.
I say, why can’t it be?
The Earth is not warming of late though. Too bad.
The environment in America and Europe approaches Paradise because prosperous people can afford to care about it.
The greenies are actually watermelons, green on the outside but red inside. If they were sincere about wanting to improve the environment they would be demonstrating in front of the Chinese and Indian embassies because those countries are aiming to increase their CO2 emissions hugely.
Environmentalism is just a tool to crash western civilization. link Their stupid Marxism has been thoroughly discredited. There’s no way they can make a convincing argument to switch to it, so they take the sneaky back door.
Have you got the impression that the academies of higher learning have been really stupid lately? That’s because they have been taken over by postmodernists. It’s the same story. The Marxists can’t win arguments so they disguise arrant BS as intellectualism. They refuse to accept any kind of authority but they, themselves, are completely authoritarian. Stephen Hicks makes this compelling argument in two (hour long each) videos. part 1
Far too optimistic IMO . Renewables are intermittent, provide no grid inertia, and are unviable without subsidies. Toyota does not yet have a single solid state ‘glass electrolyte’ LiB at vehicular scale. Coal is being built out in Asia and Africa, not ‘disappearing’. Solar PV follows an experience curve with a slope of 15-20% depending on type. That means the next 20% cost reduction comes with a doubling of CUMULATIVE production. As for fusion, French Physics Nobel laureate de Gennes said (I paraphrase here for brevity), “People say we can put the Sun in a box. Pretty idea. But we do not know how to build the box.” Until it is done, speculation about how it might be done in the future is just that, especially when the needed ‘box’ improvement is > 2 orders of magnitude.
But it all doesn’t matter. If AGW sensitivity is as observed, rather than modeled, then there is no problem to mitigate with the present real pathway something between 4.5 and 6, closer to 4.5. The ‘if’ is pretty certain given multiple CMIP5 model failures. For example, temperature this century has not meaningfully increased (except by Karlization) now that the 2015-16 El Nino blip has cooled. Yet this century comprises ~35% of the rise in atmospheric CO2 since 1958 (Keeling curve).
Exactly. Just as Hansen’s emissions estimate are WAY off yet the projected trophspheric warming from actual emissions never happened, the best case emissions scenario is VERY unlikely, but the warming will not happen as projected, and the benefits of increased CO2 will happen, yet the harms will not.
That’s what I thought.
The whole RCP concept is blown away because the forcings have been shown to be somewhere in
LaLa Land and not on this planet.
I’m not really sure what points this article is trying to make.
let’s look at their best case scenario…..try looking out the window
I think the public has had enough of all the scare stories and know it is all crying wolf.
Except governments are marching to the Climate Change tune and negatively affecting our lives.
The big news is that governments don’t do what the electorate wants.
Ignorance is what the word politician should describe,
America is a prime example, obaama and friends with a lifetime of ignorance and now Trump trying to change the empty heads of his “parties” (as in beer-fiesta ) ignorance. Someone who knows how to drive a car in Washington DC is not a ignoramus.
PS
Trump uses a helicopter.
“The IPCC gives us good news”
I think you give the wrong significance to scenarios. It isn’t news at all. They aren’t predicting Scen 2.6, any more than 8.5. They are just covering the range of possibilities, in order to do calculations that may be meaningful when the future unfolds. Whether that is 2.6 or 8.5 is a matter for human decision. Work would be required to achieve 2.6.
Actually the long into the future published IPCC claims are bad news,since it is not testable. Credible science research works ONLY when a form of the Scientific Method is in use.
So far the current evidence indicate very low response to the postulated CO2 forcing effect. Better to go with real data in real time. The IPCC has no credibility anyway as their repeated per decade projections are WAAAAAY too high.
I have long been bored of this silly tabloid level,IPCC,AGW based CO2 science.
“Work would be required to achieve 2.6.” But potentially much less than 8.5 would require.
Why bother HAS?
It is not based on credible science,those numbers are wild modeling guesses,therefore worthless.
proof by assertion?
No work will make any scenario more likely than any other because climate is almost completely unaffected by human activity.
Gave yourself away there didn’t you? its not the climate that is the issue: its the work! Human control of society by the very few for the ‘best possible reasons’ eh?
“because climate is almost completely unaffected by human activity”
Scenarios define emissions, not climate. We can decide which one happens.
Nick
You are lost
I
Exactly, this is “good news” only in the sense that : there is still time to repent and save your sole.
The Repentance Concentration Pathways just give options on how hard you choose to repent and the extent to which you are prepare to give up your evil ways in order to save your sole.
The so-called Representative Concentration Pathway RCP 8.5 and RCP 6 by IPCC seem to be exaggerated. Here is an interesting analysis by Willis Eschenbach that is based on the paper: The implications of fossil fuel supply constraints on climate change projections: A supply-driven analysis Here are the conclusions of Willis:
«Here’s the takeaway message. Using the most extreme of the 16 estimates of future CO2 levels along with the higher of the two TCR estimates, in other words looking at the worst case scenario, we are STILL not projected to reach one measly degree C of warming by the year 2100.
More to the point, the best bet given all the data we have is that there will only be a mere half a degree C of warming over the 21st century.
Can we call off the apocalypse now?»
Apocalypse Cancelled, Sorry, No Ticket Refunds – Willis Eschenbach
By figure 4 in the referred paper, it seems that even RCP 6 will not be reached even if no policies are implemented to curb CO2 emissions.
Link to Willis post:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/01/24/apocalypse-cancelled-sorry-no-ticket-refunds/
I think that particular wolf is near death but undoubtedly another will take its place. 😉
http://fablesofaesop.com/the-dog-and-the-wolf.html
The IPCC ‘worst case scenario’ is unlikely because observations show that their climate sensitivity assumptions are wrong; and what about all those coal-fired power plants being built in China, India, Sub-Sahara African etc. are they all going to shut down after 2020?
The ‘Fabian strategy’ is posting the same essay over and over and over again to wear down any opposition to IPCC prescriptions through ‘attrition and indirection’ (Wiki).
Thanks Chris, I had never bothered to check out what Fabius Maximus was a reference to. Makes a lot of sense.
nailed it.
treating you like a fi dolla ho and dickering you down to a dollar’s worth.
The RCP2.6 increase of about 2C still PRESUMES the absurdly high sensitivity of 0.8C per W/m^2 of forcing (2.6*0.8 = 2C). If we use the actual forcing range of 0.25 +/- 0.05C per W/m^2, the RPC2.6 temperature is somewhere between .5C and 0.78C and even the impossible RPC8.5 case results in a temperature increase of between 1.7C and 2.55C and no where near the 7.5-10C range claimed by the alarmists.
The whole point of the climate science disagreement is not whether it’s RCP2.6 or RPC8.5, but whether the sensitivity is 0.8C +/- 0.4C per W/m^2 as the warmists presume or is it 0.25C +/- .05C per W/m^2 as the laws of physics dictate and that most skeptics arrive at.
We know what would happen if the Sun’s output increased by 1 W/m^2. Each of the 240 W/m^2 of power arriving from the Sun contributes equally to the surface emissions and each W/m^2, including the last one, contributed 1.6 W/m^2. The next one will contribute the same and when 1.6 W/m^2 is added to the 390 W/m^2 of emissions corresponding to an average temperature of 288K, the temperature corresponding to the increased emissions increases by about 0.3C.
The consensus likes to claim that 0.3C per W/m^2 is the absolute sensitivity and often conflates it with the pre-feedback sensitivity and claims that the incremental sensitivity can be much larger owing to positive feedback. The absolute ignorance about feedback exhibited by consensus climate science is astounding. For one thing, the feedback analysis they use assumes that the incremental and absolute gain are exactly the same. If not, then its not a linear system and Bode’s linear feedback amplifier analysis methods that they use do not apply.
The 0.6 W/m^2 above and beyond the forcing power is all than can be referred to as the ‘feedback’ and as expected for a stable system, is well below the forcing of 1 W/m^2. If according to the IPCC, the surface temperature increased by 0.8C from that same W/m^2 of forcing, the increase in surface emissions would be 4.3 W/m^2 requiring 3.3 W/m^2 of ‘feedback’ in excess of the forcing. Any system whose feedback is 330% larger than the forcing that caused it would be unconditionally unstable while the climate system certainly is quite stable, having been running for billions of years.
The evidence is overwhelmingly clear. It doesn’t matter whether its RCP2.6 or RCP8.5. Neither has a catastrophic effect on the surface temperature.
“The RCP2.6 increase of about 2C still PRESUMES the absurdly high sensitivity of 0.8C”
It doesn’t presume any sensitivity. It i a scenario about forcing. The GCM works out the response. Then you can calculate he sensitivity (which is anyway largely independent of scenario).
oh dear. yet another person who doesnt understand the underlying equations behind the climate models….
Nick,
The GCM is definitely making unwarranted assumptions that for all intents and purposes are presuming a high sensitivity since they claim that 2.6 W/m^2 of forcing results in about 2C of temperature rise (0.8C per W/m^2) and this is a clear violation of COE.
At 288K, the planet emits 390 W/m^2 and at 290K (2C warmer), it will emit 401 W/m^2 for an increase of 11 W/m^2. For the surface to emit 11 W/m^2 more, it must be receiving 11 W/m^2 more, or else it will loose energy and cool. It’s only receiving 2.6 W/m^2 from the forcing, yet requires an additional 8.4 W/m^2 in order to sustain the higher temperature. You will no doubt cite feedback, so how does 2.6 W/m^2 result in 8.4 W/m^2 of feedback and why don’t all 240 W/m^2 from the Sun also produce this much feedback? Where does all this energy come from so that the climate system is not violating COE? Do you even agree that Joules can be neither created or destroyed and that Watts are Joules per second?
The GCM is presuming that the next W/m^2 of forcing increases surface emissions by 4.3 W/m^2 (0.8C), yet the last W/m^2 from the Sun only increased surface emissions by no more than 1.6 W/m^2 (0.3C). How can 1 W/m^2 of forcing from CO2 be at least 2.7 times more powerful at warming the surface than 1 W/m^2 of solar power?
There’s so much wrong with your position I can go on and on, but I strongly suspect you will have serious trouble coming up with coherent answers to the questions I’ve asked so far. Like most who take your position, you will most likely fail to engage for fear of being shown how horribly wrong you are about a high sensitivity and that the skeptics have been right all along.
“Like most who take your position”
Like many posting here, you just can’t stick to the point. This is an article about scenarios. Scenarios are about emissions. They have nothing to do with sensitivity. That comes later.
NIck,
You’re talking about emission scenarios which are based on a meaningless and demonstrably false attribution that those emissions cause massive climate change, when they absolutely do not for the reasons I outlined plus many more. And as I expected, you did not answer one of my questions, whose answers will reveal to you how incredibly wrong the presumed attribution is. Why don’t you take a shot. Are you afraid? You have nothing to loose, most of the readers of this site know how wrong you are already.
“This is an article about scenarios. Scenarios are about emissions. They have nothing to do with sensitivity. That comes later …”.
====================================
Nonsense you have it a-about, why on earth select a ‘scenario’ to follow if there were no assumed climate sensitivity and assumed global av. temperature implications?
Of course the IPCC have settled on a narrow range of model TCR to get this in AR5:
IPCC-AR5-Fig-12.5.png (1741×1152) http://www.easterbrook.ca/steve/wp-content/IPCC-AR5-Fig-12.5.png
Nick Stokes
Awaiting you reply or “Scenario ” to ” co2isnoteveil ”
SCENARIO (Merriam-Webster) ” a plot outline used by actors of “the commedia derl’arteb”
George,
Do you really expect him to reply? Like everyone else on the wrong side of the science, including main stream climate scientists, they refuse to engage in any kind of meaningful debate. This can only mean that they suspect that they are wrong but don’t want to be convinced given the harsh political consequences to the left that will follow (for some reason, they all seem to lean left). It would be like a devout religious adherent having to acknowledge that the deities they’ve been worshipping don’t exist.
On the rare occasion when an alarmist scientist does engage, they do nothing but spout rhetoric and talking points bereft of any scientific content, much like the alarmists who frequent this site. They are so incredibly wrong, what other tactics can they employ to perpetuate their false beliefs?
The whole point of the climate science disagreement is not whether it’s RCP2.6 or RPC8.5, but whether the sensitivity…
+100
An entire article devoted to how we could achieve RCP2.6 has as much merit as the oft repeated 2.0 degrees of warming over pre-industrial being “safe”. Both are artificial targets chosen for political rather than science and economic reasons. Blustering about how to get to something that is a fictitious target in the first place just derails a discussion of the actual issues. Doing so simply cedes the high ground to the alarmist camp.
If sensitivity was high, the +40% increase in CO2 over pre-industrial would be easily observable in the temperature record (it isn’t) and if it is low (the logical conclusion) then there’s not much to worry about. Further, the measurement over “pre-industrial” is itself another fiction. What the temperature of the world was pre-industrial is immaterial. The questions needed to be asked are what is the temperature of the earth NOW, what are the economic and health conditions we have NOW (answer; best in history) and how will these be affected by increased CO2? This changes the discussion entirely.
Calculating numbers from pre-industrial levels requires starting at 280 ppm. But starting from NOW, we’re at 400 ppm, and doubling from 400 ppm is a HUGE amount of fossil fuel, there may not be enough on earth to do it. RCP2.6 is as immaterial without knowing sensitivity to our current condition as 280 ppm pre-industrial is. Musing about how to get there diverts attention from actual issues into a discussion that seems of value, but when put into context, is meaningless.
for political…a fictitious target
Thank you for that post David…spot on
The IPCC is part of the United Nations, which is synonymous with the global warming politics/media freak show. Anything the IPCC says is rejected on that basis.
Atmospheric CO2 is not pollution, it is the basic substrate for all life on Earth.
The basic premise that “emissions” should be reduced is ludicrous.
The elephant in the room is what we cant see yet. New Discoveries!
Its worth noting that the centrally planned world has tipped literally trillions into solar and wind developments, the CO2 emissions impact is very small and some would argue even negative at the same time fraccing has reduced the CO2 emissions of the US hugely by substituting coal generation while paying wages, payroll tax, corp tax royalties, dividend taxes etc. all to have these capitalist generated revenues flushed down the toilet to scams like Tesla etc.
Lordy. A warming world takes care of itself as it is a highly productive planet. The cold spells are what we have to plan for. And the only way to do that is to figure out a way to survive ice advance along with lack of fuel and food. Simply storing them in place makes no sense because the ice will simply crawl over the top. We have to be mobile along with the fuel and food (and I have the means to hmmm…get the food).
Addendum: Before the warmers respond by telling me that the fall to a stadial period takes 10’s of thousands of years and that I will be dead by the time I need to pick up and move…well duh.
About an hour ago I had a mechanical engineer argue with me that plants live on carbon monoxide.
“No,” I said. “CO2.”
“Right. Carbon monoxide.”
We’re doomed, I tells ya.
Tell him this: Dihydrogen Monoxide is completely safe as long as you don’t absorb too much of it. Then send him to this link. Video tape his frantic search then post it. Worth millions of laughs!
http://www.dhmo.org/facts.html
Horror!
Its Hydrogen Hydroxide!
Actually Oxygen Hydride
DHMO
ask him how many wheels he think there are on a bicycle.
The simple science is lost to the specialists. Many people believe that UV rays power photosynthesis. I had to show an entomologist that caterpillars were deforming the leaves on his larkspur and another entomologist claimed that we did not have horn worm caterpillars in Alberta (Sphinx moth larvae anyone?). Can’t see the forest for the trees.
With all due respect, most of the above article is puffery.
“RCP8.5 might be close to Armageddon.”
No its not. It has been enshrined in law. Here, and in many other places I’m sure, it is already Armageddon. It has been ranging for 5 years, with a very short interlude when wiser heads prevailed. The loss to clients in my very limited portfolio is now running in millions.
Fabius Editor
There is no question that technologies to replace the dominant use of fossil fuels is welcomed if guided and developed in a cost efficient manner.
To use the best case IPCC outcome based on reduced CO2 usage is pure nonsense. Almost an apology for their wrongs. Exactly what have they got right. It is still based on CO2 as the primary driver. The top 75% of prediction forcasts is off the planetary scale, but ok you can still be in the game.
May I suggest you try writing an article about “your time is up IPCC you are just wrong” or are you just going to give them another ten years of muddling along.
The entire basis for their theory is wrong, over 97% wrong. Call it for what it is.
+1
I got a great CCS technology at home.
I give you the name: PLANTS.
“We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.”
I can say that in one word – Thalidomide. Wasn’t that a breakthrough on so many levels? As was asbestos and now you beaut, cheap as chips, building insulation panels. And just wait until the penny drops on just how far down towards a brain dead end the msm pied pipers with their ‘science communicatuons’ (aka ‘fake science’, aka propaganda) can take us.
After more than two decades of study the IPCC has been unabel to narrow the range of their guesses as to the climate sensivity of CO2 one iota. They really do not know what it is so all their estimates as to futhre climate is just a WAG. The IPCC refuses to rcognize estimates of the climate sensivity of CO2 that are below the IPCC’s published range for political reasons.
One researcher has pointed out that the fundamental estimates of the climate sensivity of CO2 are too great by a factor of more than 20 because what has been ignored is that doubling the amount of CO2 in the Earth’s atmosphere will slightly lower the dry lapse rate in the troposphere which is a cooling effect counteracting most of the warming effect that the added CO2 might have.
Then there is the issue of H2O feedback. What has been ignored is that CO2 is a major coolant in the Earth’s atmosphere as evidenced by the fact that the wet lapse rate is significantly less than the dry lapse rate. Increasing H2O due to any CO2 warming that may occour hence provides a negative feedback and retards any warming effect that CO2 might have. Considering all this, the climate sensivity is most likely less than .02 degrees C for a doubling of CO2 which is a trivial amount.
Then there is the fact that the radiant greenhouse effect upon which the AGW conjecture is based. has not been obsreved on Earth nor anywhere in the solar system. The radiant greenhouse effect is hence science fiction as then must be the AGW conjecture. So the IPCC’s conclusions are all based on science fiction and have nothing to do with the real world in which we live.
Willhaas,
the reason why they can’t narrow the range, is because it is all pseudoscience. They created a bunch of climate models that runs to year 2100, all completely untestable,therefore worthless.
davidmhoffer wisely states,
“If sensitivity was high, the +40% increase in CO2 over pre-industrial would be easily observable in the temperature record (it isn’t) and if it is low (the logical conclusion) then there’s not much to worry about. Further, the measurement over “pre-industrial” is itself another fiction. What the temperature of the world was pre-industrial is immaterial.”
Warming since 1976 seems to be all ocean based as shown by Bob Tisdale:
Can El Nino Events Explain All of the Global Warming Since 1976? – Part 1
“Absolutely. And They Do It In Three Easy Steps.”
https://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2009/01/10/can-el-nino-events-explain-all-of-the-global-warming-since-1976-%E2%80%93-part-1/
95% of postulated CO2 warming effect was already set in place over 700 Million years ago.
Remaining postulated CO2 warming effect of today is NEGLIGIBLE!
Ah, yes. What is the “right temperature”? No one can answer that one.
““RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C”
This has the assumption that the world can actually control global warming successfully by all the means suggested by the IPCC and the huge number of “academic” papers which tell us so, but neglect any projected hardship caused by the consequential economic disasters.
I believe the world may warm and it may cool, all things that it has done before – even within recorded history – and will keep on doing as it pleases.
Therefore there is no need to ruin economies and cause starvation over hypotheses that cannot even stand Karl Popper’s standard of validation.
CO2 is our friend and the environment should be respected – governments should retreat to governing, not promoting propaganda that is really designed to increase their power and that of unbridled bureaucracies.
Cheers
Roger
http://www.thedemiseofchristchurch
(testing)…
“If pushed with government policies,”
This is the scariest scenario of them all.
As clearly stated in the AR5 WG1 report none of the RCP scenarios have any probabilities associated with them and they are considered to be only “plausible” and “illustrative”.
Thus any construction of future outcomes from these RCP scenarios is nothing but conjecture and speculation.
Therefore any of these constructions derived from the RCP’s are inappropriate for use in formulating policy actions.
These constructions are purely of academic interest only.
+100 for Larry, for saying what should be the obvious.
“… none of the RCP scenarios have any probabilities associated with them…” WG1 were careful to characterise the various GCM runs as simply scenarios without probabilities attached, but the RCP scenario authors clearly set out where these scenarios are positioned. For example RCP 8.5 is positioned as do nothing about emissions (the misinterpreted “business as usual”) with emissions drivers at the 90% level (the “conservative” bit) in its description. From that one can have a conversation about how likely that scenario is, and from that a sense of the likelihood of outputs from GCMs based on it.
ALL of the numbers in IPCC’s assessments are pulled straight out of some PhD’s intern’s butt and then stamped “consensus.”