Guest Post by Willis Eschenbach
Over at Dr. Curry’s excellent website, she’s discussing the Red and Blue Team approach. If I ran the zoo and could re-examine the climate question, I’d want to look at what I see as the central misunderstanding in the current theory of climate.
This is the mistaken idea that changes in global temperature are a linear function of changes in the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation balance (usually called “forcing”).
As evidence of the centrality of this misunderstanding, I offer the fact that the climate model output global surface temperature can be emulated to great accuracy as a lagged linear transformation of the forcings. This means that in the models, everything but the forcing cancels out and the temperature is a function of the forcings and very little else. In addition, the paper laying out those claimed mathematical underpinnings is one of the more highly-cited papers in the field.
To me, this idea that the hugely complex climate system has a secret control knob with a linear and predictable response is hugely improbable on the face of it. Complex natural systems have a whole host of internal feedbacks and mechanisms that make them act in unpredictable ways. I know of no complex natural system which has anything equivalent to that.
But that’s just one of the objections to the idea that temperature slavishly follows forcing. In my post called “The Cold Equations” I discussed the rickety mathematical underpinnings of this idea. And in “The TAO That Can Be Spoken” I showed that there are times when TOA forcing increases, but the temperature decreases.
Recently I’ve been looking at what the CERES data can tell us about the question of forcing and temperature. We can look at the relationship in a couple of ways, as a time series or a long-term average. I’ll look at both. Let me start by showing how the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation imbalance varies over time. Figure 1 shows three things—the raw TOA forcing data, the seasonal component of the data, and the “residual”, what remains once we remove the seasonal component.
Figure 1. Time series, TOA radiative forcing. The top panel shows the CERES data. The middle panel shows the seasonal component, which is caused by the earth being different distances from the sun at different times of the year. The bottom panel shows the residual, what is left over after the seasonal component is subtracted from the data.
And here is the corresponding view of the surface temperature.
Figure 2. Time series, global average surface temperature. The top panel shows the data. The middle panel shows the seasonal component. The bottom panel shows the residual, what is left over after the seasonal component is subtracted from the data. Note the El Nino-related warming at the end of 2015.
Now, the question of interest involves the residuals. If there is a month with unusually high TOA radiation, does it correspond with a surface warming that month? For that, we can use a scatterplot of the residuals.
Figure 3. Scatterplot of TOA radiation anomaly (data minus seasonal) versus temperature anomaly (data minus seasonal). Monthly data, N = 192. P-value adjusted for autocorrelation.
From that scatterplot, we’d have to conclude that there’s little short-term correlation between months with excess forcing and months with high temperature.
Now, this doesn’t exhaust the possibilities. There could be a correlation with a time lag between cause and effect. For this, we need to look at the “cross-correlation”. This measures the correlation at a variety of lags. Since we are investigating the question of whether TOA forcing roolz or not, we need to look at the conditions where the temperature lags the TOA forcing (positive lags). Figure 4 shows the cross-correlation.
Figure 4. Cross-correlation, TOA forcing and temperature. Temperature lagging TOA is shown as positive. In no case are the correlations even approaching significance.
OK, so on average there’s very little correlation between TOA forcing and temperature. There’s another way we can look at the question. This is the temporal trend of TOA forcing and temperature on a 1° latitude by 1° longitude gridcell basis. Figure 5 shows that result:
Figure 5. Correlation of TOA forcing and temperature anomalies, 1° latitude by 1° longitude gridcells. Seasonal components removed in all cases.
There are some interesting results there. First, correlation over the land is slightly positive, and over the ocean, it is slightly negative. Half the gridcells are in the range ±0.15, very poorly correlated. Nowhere is there a strong positive correlation. On the other hand, Antarctica is strongly negatively correlated. I have no idea why.
Now, I said at the onset that there were a couple of ways to look at this relationship between surface temperature and TOA radiative balance—how it evolves over time, and how it is reflected in long-term averages. Above we’ve looked at it over time, seeing in a variety of ways if monthly changes or annual in one are reflected in the other. Now let’s look at the averages. First, here’s a map of the average TOA radiation imbalances.
Figure 6. Long-term average TOA net forcing. CERES data, Mar 2000 – Feb 2016
And here is the corresponding map for the temperature, from the same dataset.
Figure 7. Long-term average surface temperature. CERES data, Mar 2000 – Feb 2016
Clearly, in the long-term average we can see that there is a relationship between TOA imbalance and surface temperature. To investigate the relationship, Figure 8 shows a scatterplot of gridcell temperature versus gridcell TOA imbalance.
Figure 8. Scatterplot, temperature versus TOA radiation imbalance. Note that there are very few gridcells warmer than 30°C. N = 64,800 gridcells.
Whoa … can you say “non-linear”?
Obviously, the situation on the land is much more varied than over the ocean, due to differences in things like water availability and altitude. To view things more clearly, here’s a look at just the situation over the ocean.
Figure 9. As in Figure 8, but showing just the ocean. Note that almost none of the ocean is over 30°C. N = 43,350 gridcells.
Now, the interesting thing about Figure 8 is the red line. This line shows the variation in radiation we’d expect if we calculate the radiation using the standard Stefan-Boltzmann equation that relates temperature and radiation. (See end notes for the math details.) And as you can see, the Stefan-Boltzmann equation explains most of the variation in the ocean data.
So where does this leave us? It seems that short-term variations in TOA radiation are very poorly correlated with temperature. On the other hand, there is a long-term correlation. This long-term correlation is well-described by the Stefan-Boltzmann relationship, with the exception of the hot end of the scale. At the hot end, other mechanisms obviously come into play which are limiting the maximum ocean and land temperatures.
Figure 9 also indicates that other than the Stefan-Boltzmann relationship, the net feedback is about zero. This is what we would expect in a governed, thermally regulated system. In such a system, sometimes the feedback acts to warm the surface, and other times the feedback acts to cool the surface. Overall, we’d expect them to cancel out.
Is this relationship how we can expect the globe to respond to long-term changes in forcing? Unknown. However, if it is the case, it indicates that other things being equal (which they never are), a doubling of CO2 to 800 ppmv would warm the earth by about two-thirds of a degree …
However, there’s another under-appreciated factor. This is that we we’re extremely unlikely to ever double the atmospheric CO2 to eight hundred ppmv from the current value of about four hundred ppmv. In a post called Apocalypse Cancelled, Sorry, No Ticket Refunds. I discussed sixteen different supply-driven estimates of future CO2 levels over the 21st century. These peak value estimates ranged from 440 to 630 ppmv, with a median value of 530 ppmv … a long ways from doubling.
So, IF in fact the net feedback is zero and the relationship between TOA forcing and surface temperature is thus governed by the Stefan-Boltzmann equation as Figure 9 indicates, the worst-case scenario of 630 ppmv would give us a temperature increase of a bit under half a degree …
And if I ran the Red Team, that’s what I’d be looking at.
Here, it’s after midnight and the fog has come in from the ocean. The redwood trees are half-visible in the bright moonglow. There’s no wind, and the fog is blanketing the sound. Normally there’s not much noise here in the forest, but tonight it’s sensory-deprivation quiet … what a world.
My best regards to everyone, there are always more questions than answers,
w.
PS—if you comment please QUOTE THE EXACT WORDS YOU ARE DISCUSSING, so we can all understand your subject.
THE MATH: The Stefan-Boltzmann equation is usually written as
W = sigma epsilon T^4
where W is the radiation, sigma is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant 5.67e-8, epsilon is emissivity (usually taken as 1) and T is temperature in kelvin.
Differentiating, we get
dT/dW = (W / (sigma epsilon))^(1/4) / (4 * W)
This is the equation used to calculate the area-weighted mean slope shown in Figure 9. The radiation imbalance was taken around the area-weighted mean oceanic thermal radiation of 405 W/m2.
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“First, correlation over the land is slightly positive, and over the ocean, it is slightly negative. Half the gridcells are in the range ±0.15, very poorly correlated. ”
While it’s slightly difficult to see from the graph legend what 0 would be, I get the impression that the sign should the other way around in the text above?
Troed,
That is my subjective impression also. Also, it looks like Greenland has a strong negative correlation, like Antarctica. What do they have in common? A large thermal ballast in the form of ice and 6 months without sunlight.
And both at high altitude.
Really great analysis
Thank you
Hope your phone rings
And it’s Scott Pruitt
Bestest
Sensitivity is dictated by anomaly analysis.
As the temps did not materialise the sensitivity studies got less alarming.
A residue of changes (known and largely unknown) is being used to determine sensitivity to one tiny factor in the system.
Luke warmers are cargo cult scientists.
No one, NO ONE can show their model represents the actual real world mechanisms and until they can, it’s cargo cult science
I don’t want to rain on your parade, but that is true of all science…
All science is, is a collection of models based on a more basic model (rational materialism) that seem to work.
So at a stroke you have reduced all science to ‘cargo cult status’.
But actually that may be where it belongs.
If you study what is happening at the unpleasant end of quantum physics, physicists don’t actually even want to talk about what it means, or what reality is, any more. They just want maths that successfully predicts, no matter how weird the implications are…
I have been pondering this a long time, and in the end the only justification we have for thinking that any of our models are close to ‘true’ is the preposterous and illogical statement that ‘because they work its strong evidence that they are ‘almost true’.
I.e the fact by typing on this screen and people replying to it, works. is ‘strong evidence’ for my theory that the world consists of people trapped inside my computer screen. It fits the facts. It predicts what will happen.
In short we don’t actually have any understanding about how the world works at all. We have a collection of shorthand imperfect models that allow us to predict its behaviour a little bit – and that’s all.
Its cargo cult. Except we stopped building mock airfields when it stopped raining cargo.
Well obviously climate scientists did not.
Too much naval-gazing philosophy here. When a theory like quantum mechanics is capable of making repeatable predictions to twenty decimal place accuracy with no known exceptions observed over the best part of a century then we call that a good theory. The fact that it is not classically derivable and is potentially incomplete is irrelevant and clearly the formalism is either capturing some important aspect of reality or is the most monstrously improbable coincidence.
Cargo cult science is when a hypothesis – CAGW is still a long way from even making the grade of theory and ‘climate change’ could not even be graced with the title hypothesis since it is forever and totally unfalsifiable – makes no accurate predictions of any kind and yet is nevertheless hailed as being representative of nature.
There is a distinct difference between good models of reality and bad and in no way is Mark condemning good science as cargo cult when he puts bad models into that category.
Once upon a time, before everyone had a computer on their desks, we used to analyze circuits by hand. To do that at all, for any reasonably complex circuit, it was necessary to make linearizing assumptions. The analysis was easy to confirm by building the circuit. You got good at knowing what worked. In that case, linearizing was fully justified. In any event, you were clear about your assumptions.
Our usual tools are valid if things are, or can be made, linear time-invariant (LTI). It is trivially demonstrable that the climate does not meet that requirement. Any linear climate model is therefore mathematically invalid. Could the linearizing assumptions be somehow justified? No, the system is too complex and there are too many unknowns.
Wheelers delayed choice experiment can be interpreted as showing reality is not real. Those are the kinds of results from QM that are held as speculative. Are tee here really multiple world’s? Does reality fade into a fog of possibilities a few seconds in the future?
QM has a stellar reputation, yet describes reality as more like a funhouse, than something like the real world.
There is a difference between predicting and explaining. QM is highly successful at predicting, but a complete failure at explaining. I listen to physicists attempting to use math to explain what is going on and its laughable – just like the idea that no states exist if I don’t look at them – I know the moon is up there whether or not I am currently looking at it. Entanglement is a great example of knowing how to perform the math and entirely lacking a reason why it works. (Actually some physicists seem to have an understanding, it just isn’t the prevailing view as yet).
All that said, QM has been the most successful “model” in all of humankind existence. It repeatedly works and to a high degree of accuracy.
All climate “science” is nothing but a bunch of over-rated proxy data (with confounding variables and low accuracy) or (mostly tainted) measurements of daily observations thrown together into a bunch of meaningless computer models that predict NOTHING useful. It has been the single worst, most unsuccessful “model”(s) in humankind modern existence.
The only successful “prediction” AGW makes is it will get warmer – however this is the same prediction the null hypothesis makes so again, the AGW hypothesis fails – utterly – entirely – period. AGW makes no measurable and useful quantifiable predictions, so it can never be disproved. I.e. its religion.
physics Models are not products that tell you HOW the world works. They are models that allow you to make and test assumptions against observations.
Simulators allow you to ask questions about some model. Where people go wrong is assuming you ask the model for an answer the same way you search a pile of real world data for the corresponding answer.
You have to tell a simulator everything. I don’t know how many times I had to explain why the sim results were not wrong, but that the engineer asked the wrong question, and this is why the results are what they are. And when you asked the question correctly, you get what you’re suppose to get based on the model.
And that still doesn’t prove the model is right, just that you asked the right question, in a way the simulator knew how to answer. And you understood what it told you.
Here is the real deal: Model(s) results were drifting out of realistic ranges, so the outputs were adjusted to more desirable results. [I don’t remember the exact circumstances. Anybody have the quote?]
I do know that AR5 had to adjust model “projections” down for the intermediate future because they were, in the main, running hot.
IPCC climate models are bunk.
Leo Smith concluded:
In short we don’t actually have any understanding about how the world works at all. We have a collection of shorthand imperfect models that allow us to predict its behaviour a little bit – and that’s all.
… to which cephus20 responded to Leo’s entire post:
Too much naval-gazing philosophy here. When a theory like quantum mechanics is capable of making repeatable predictions to twenty decimal place accuracy with no known exceptions observed over the best part of a century then we call that a good theory. The fact that it is not classically derivable and is potentially incomplete is irrelevant and clearly the formalism is either capturing some important aspect of reality or is the most monstrously improbable coincidence.
… to which I now add MY two cents (sense?):
I agree with Leo, further pointing out that without “naval-gazing”, human life would become pretty dull and meaningless. We humans want to harmonize the rest of our primitive senses with our brain functions, and to divorce these senses from the brain functions of the scientific process seems to ignore these senses that are the very basis for finding meaning or purpose in everyday life.
The fact that quantum mechanics can predict to twenty-decimal-place accuracy says nothing of any reality outside of human consciousness. If anything, quantum mechanics is a precise mathematics of human consciousness. Quantum mechanics, thus, is a really good tool, … and that is all. The fact that it is potentially incomplete might be more relevant than we think, because in its current incompleteness, it denies any connection to how humans find meaning everywhere else in existence. “Existence” — QM does not even acknowledge such a thing. “Reality”? — no such thing, no, worse than that, We can neither confirm nor deny reality — it’s not our job to say.
A person could easily argue, from a QM perspective, that believing in “reality” is like believing in angels or Santa, as I understand it. It just seems shallow to me, in this respect. Why not give it some color and relationship with the human domain? But, I digress — this blog is about climate science. Oh wait, isn’t believing in human-caused-CO2-catastrophic-climate-change like believing in Santa? Maybe I haven’t digressed as much as I thought.
Yours truly,
Neville Gazer
There are models and there are models.
In engineering, software design tools let us do things we could never do without them. The thing is that they are reliable because they can be validated and verified. On the other hand, …
It’s pretty simple.
Figure 8 title is confusing.
Nice, tight reasoning. Another good job W.
I wonder just how a formula that results in the plot in Figure 8 would work.
Just change the real data to make it fit better – just like the “climate scientists” do!!
Willis,
“This is the mistaken idea that changes in global temperature are a linear function of changes in the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation balance (usually called “forcing”).”
As I said at Judith’s, the first objection here is that you don’t say who has this mistaken idea, and how exactly they expressed it. I think some of the mistaken ideas are yours. One. that I have railed against over the years, is
“As evidence..I offer the fact that the climate model output global surface temperature can be emulated to great accuracy as a lagged linear transformation of the forcings.”
You don’t seem to be able to shake the notion that the forcings are an input from which the outputs are calculated. As I have noted here and elsewhere, the forcings are not inputs but diagnostics, and are frequently calculated from the outputs by some linear formula. So it is evidence only of the correct application of that formula.
You quote Steven Schwartz. But his “Ansatz” isn’t the simple formula that you quoted there:
∆T = λ ∆F
It is that
dH/dt = C dT/dt
where H is heat content. That pushes the question back to the relation between dH/dt and ∆F. And it isn’t simple linear – Schwartz gives the T~F relation as
∆T = 1/λ F (1-e^(-t/τ))
but with the further possibility of multiple time scales.
But even with that more complex relation, Schwartz has nothing that corresponds to
“But that’s just one of the objections to the idea that temperature slavishly follows forcing.
He’s developing an energy balance model he’s using to try to tease out the time constants. That doesn’t imply anything slavish. It just means that you’ll find an element in the response that corresponds to that constant. A rough analogy is that an opera house may have a resonant frequency (it probably shouldn’t). That doesn’t mean that the lady singing the aria is slavishly following the resonance. It probably does color the way that you’ll hear her song.
If you want a red team to pursue the blues on this, you need to establish first what the blue team is actually saying.
Nick, What the blue team keeps saying is Sensitivity is likely > 2.0C, where it’s likely well below 1.1C.
They do that by treating Co2 as an additive forcing, it is not.
It displaces nearly identical amounts of forcing from natural water vapor feedback that regulates Min T.
Micro,
“They do that by treating Co2 as an additive forcing, it is not.
It displaces nearly identical amounts of forcing from natural water vapor feedback that regulates Min T.”
That is not correct. Increased CO2 traps heat and the warmer air holds more moisture than before. CO2 forcing pulls water vapor up to join it, and the water vapor provides more heat trapping – it is additive.
Measurements disagree
Micro, your graph proves nothing. Logic should tell you that if the physical chemistry of both CO2 and H2O means they absorb and retain thermal radiation, and if you add more of one of them to the atmosphere without removing any of the other, then more heat absorption will occur.
They are additive.
No, they are independent. And it’s a matter of physics, not chemistry
They are independent in the individual ways their physical chemistries trap heat. They are not independent in their abundance in the air, as the more heat CO2 traps, the more water vapor can be supported by the air. The more there is of either one of them, the more heat can be trapped.
Except that isnt what the measurements show. The effect of water vapor, and the water cycle has a nonlinear affect on the rate temps drop at night. There’s an almost 98% correlation between min temp and dew point. Neither are affected by co2.
Jack Davis – “Increased CO2 traps heat and the warmer air holds more moisture than before.” Excellent point. Just about all agree with that statement, and of course we skeptics maintain that nobody really knows to what degree extra heat retention will result from that. The physics and chemistry I understand indicate that more atmospheric CO2 will not create any problems.
Micro,
“There’s an almost 98% correlation between min temp and dew point. Neither are affected by co2.”
Of course – that’s tautological.
Obviously the minimum overnight temperature will see dew drop out of the atmosphere if it’s that kind of night. At that stage C02 is kicking back paring its nails – it has nothing to do with that process.
I’ll give it one more go as simply as I can, then I’m out of here:
CO2 absorbs heat radiated by Earth, causing the air to heat up (long and continuous process).
Warmer air holds more water vapor (humidity).
H2O vapor also absorbs heat radiated from Earth’s surface – independently!
When it gets cold at night, water will drop out of the air (dew) because the gas to liquid transition temperature is in the range of overnight temperatures.
CO2 will not drop out because its transition temperature is far lower – it has its nails to attend to!
I’m out!
First in the middle of the night the optical window, the main radiative hole, is the same temp colder as it was at dusk, yet cooling rates drop by half to 3/4. Did you read the linked paper?
Nick Stokes…your comment doesn’t seem related to Willis’s statement. He said: “As evidence..I offer the fact that the climate model output global surface temperature can be emulated to great accuracy as a lagged linear transformation of the forcings.” It doesn’t matter if the forcings are an ‘input’ or a ‘diagnostic’. The relationship that Willis is referring to is still evident; if the forcing increases in the models, the temperature (output) will increase as well, and the relationship is very, very close to linear over periods of time greater than a few years. .
As the models are set up, they will never project global cooling for many years while the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is increasing. And the only reason why they would project any cooling at all under increasing CO2 conditions is because of the ‘volcano’ variable popping up every now and then. Or perhaps an El Nino/La Nina variable would allow for a brief cooling now and then. Outside of the few ‘natural’ variables that are acknowledged by the IPCC, the increased forcing associated with increasing CO2 will always produce warming in the models. Always.
That is not true in nature and that is the whole point of this post. It seems to me that if you want to debate something with Willis, you need to realize first what he is actually saying.
Taken at face value, he seems to be saying that the pretty forcings graph of the IPCC is nothing but the fevered (opaque) imaginings of climate modelers.
So, increasing CO2 has no effect on the temperature of the earth? And I have fairies at the bottom of my garden. lalalalala.
Not much, water compensates by condensing less water vapor by about the same amount co2 increased. Night time cooling rate is controlled by rel humidity, which slows cooling at high rel. If it’s warmer during the day, it just cools longer at the high cooling rate low humidity, and after the heat has been radiated, it slows cooling.
It’s regulated out by water vapor.
You don’t seem to be able to shake the notion that the forcings are an input from which the outputs are calculated. As I have noted here and elsewhere, the forcings are not inputs but diagnostics, and are frequently calculated from the outputs by some linear formula. So it is evidence only of the correct application of that formula.
Nick, surely the point he is making is that you have models with lots of apparent inputs which yield a given output. He claims that you get essentially the same output with only one input, call it X.
To this you reply that he is mistaken about the nature of X. it is not in fact an independently calculated element, you say. It is a calculated quantity. The way it is calculated, you say, is to assume a certain level of output and a certain relationship between output and X, and then to reason that given this relationship, the X MUST be a certain level.
So, you argue, it is more or less true by definition that you can get all the outputs from X alone. X was made up to a quantity where exactly that would be possible.
I have no idea whether or not this is true. But if its true, you are actually agreeing with his point. His point is that the very elaborate model with lots of different variables actually works the same as one with only X as an input, and you seem to be agreeing with that. The only qualification you have is that you say this was arrived at by assumption and not by experimentally finding values for X and then seeing how they relate to the outputs.
Well, maybe, but it changes nothing in his argument. His argument is still that the models are absurdly overcomplicated and have lots of unnecessary variables, when all they require is X. He is not saying anything about whether the values they assume for X are valid, nor is he saying how they arrived at them. He is just saying that a great mass of complications come down to something very simple in the end.
It is a bit like someone plotting cholera incidence. He includes a whole bunch of variables in a model, like ethnic groups, age of infection, season of the year, country… and also water contamination. How he arrives at his calculation of how contaminated the water is, makes no difference. Someone points out that you do not need any of the other variables.
To which his reply is, ah, water contamination is not an input, its a calcluated factor.
To which the reply is, fine, but that is in fact the only thing that’s driving your models. And by the way, have you checked to see if the contamination you are calculating is found in the real world?
“His point is that the very elaborate model with lots of different variables actually works the same as one with only X as an input, and you seem to be agreeing with that.”
My point is that X wasn’t an input, but was calculated from the output. You can check the algebra here, where Forster et al made the process quite explicit. So saying that X, deduced from the GCM output, enables you to deduce that output, isn’t telling you anything. The “model” with X as only input, in fact can’t work without the GCM that provided X.
Nick writes
Nick, this is fundamentally incorrect. You’re letting the complexity of the model’s calculation cloud your understanding. The forcing is attributable to the TOA imbalance. And the TOA imbalance is set to an “appropriate” value by tuning model parameters (primarily cloud related, for most models).
You appear to be arguing that there is no function in the GCM that takes X as a parameter to deduce T and you’re right about that but it totally misses the point.
Nick “If you want a red team to pursue the blues on this, you need to establish first what the blue team is actually saying.”
Exactly, I couldn’t say it better myself. What exactly is the blue team saying? I have tried for years to get a definitive answer to that question.
“What exactly is the blue team saying?”
You could read what they say to find out. I have long commended Willis’ advice, given here in caps: “QUOTE THE EXACT WORDS YOU ARE DISCUSSING”. We need to hear what the blue team actually said that is characterised as the “central misunderstanding”.
Nick Stokes: You don’t seem to be able to shake the notion that the forcings are an input from which the outputs are calculated. As I have noted here and elsewhere, the forcings are not inputs but diagnostics, and are frequently calculated from the outputs by some linear formula.
What does that mean? Everywhere we are warned that increasing the CO2 concentration by continuing to burn fossil fuel will cause an increase in global mean surface temperature; i.e. that CO2 is for sure a forcing.
“What does that mean?”
Willis’ contention is that you can take some published forcing numbers and derive GCM output surface temperatures by simple formulae. My objection is that those forcing numbers were not the input from which the GCM output was calculated, but were in fact deduced from the output (and in some cases other data). So all the correspondence tells you is about the deduction process.
GCMs do take in CO2 concentrations and much other atmosphere information, and do indicate that GHGs cause warming. That is usually shown by running them with and without CO2 increase. But the quantitative estimate of GHGs as forcing is derived from other information, including GCM output. So the argument that outputs are simply related to forcings is circular.
Nick Stokes: Willis’ contention is that you can take some published forcing numbers and derive GCM output surface temperatures by simple formulae. My objection is that those forcing numbers were not the input from which the GCM output was calculated, but were in fact deduced from the output (and in some cases other data). So all the correspondence tells you is about the deduction process.
That isn’t what you wrote and you mischaracterize what Willis did: he showed by statistical analysis that the GCM output changes are nearly linear effects of the CO2 forcing changes, despite the complexity of the models.
This comment by Nick jogged an insight, or maybe a confusion (you decide – Sorry, Nick, if I confuse your clarification):
So the argument that outputs are simply related to forcings is circular.
Isn’t this one of the accusations made by some skeptics?– that forcings are derived in such a way that they support certain outputs? — that certain forcings are “anticipated” by the inputs (hence, the people “inputers”) in order to arrive at those forcings?
Nick writes
And they do it using an imperfectly modelled atmosphere. They can’t model lapse rate accurately so they can’t hope to model changes to the lapse rate as a result of the GHG concentration changes. Consequently the effective forcing is more “set” than you think it is.
matthewrmarler,
“you mischaracterize what Willis did”
I’m not trying to characterise the work he did with CERES data. I’m talking about what he says earlier, which is the blue/red moral that he wants to draw from it. On its own, the CERES analysis does not appear to conflict greatly with any “blue” theory. My issue is the set of statements about someone believing that “temperature slavishly follows forcing”. What he has said in support of that in earlier posts is based, not on someone saying it, but on the correspondence between TOA forcing related to GHG and temperature in GCM output. And that is what he refers to here. My point is that that link is weak. What is needed to establish that the blue team has that belief is a quote of someone actually saying it.
Nick Stokes July 13, 2017 at 5:06 pm
Nick, I gave you a link to one hundred and fifty papers citing the Schwartz work linked to in the head post. That is a hundred and fifty papers, call it at least three scientists per paper, four hundred fifty scientists actually saying it.
I know it’s shocking, Nick, but sometimes you’re just wrong …
w.
PLease once and for all inform us all WHAT THE BLUE TEAM IS SAYING? You have all the time in the world to write lengthy diatribes but don’t want to answer this very basic question.
RW, who are you addressing? Also, who are the members of the “Blue Team”?
w.
Nick Stokes, Willis Eschenbach etc are the reason people hear the term climatology and become disgusted at what fakes can do to a branch of science.
I have wondered what happened at TOA when the surface temperature dropped so drastically in 2008 – I can’t see anything very obvious here. The temperature dropped by about 0.7 C over the year. Any ideas why?
Willis, as always, a complicated and well thought out post….BUT, the simple question is…Why the %$^# does anyone want to save the ice in the North ?? If I want ice, I’ll open my freezer door !
..P.S. Nothing much that lives in the frozen North or in my freezer depends on ICE !!
That’s far simpler Butch2, but I suspect your’s is a rhetorical question.
Can I have a go at answering his rhetorical then?
Earth’s troposphere as it is today is something like a giant stirling engine – the cold ends are necessary to keep the engine pumping.
Get rid of the ice and not only do you halt the engine, but you have overheated it. A stagnant hot steamy world we wouldn’t want to live in will be the result.
You are right, and completely wrong at the same time, a sterling engine is a good analogy(though I’d have to ponder the operation to decide if it’s representative or not), it’s just the warm end is the surface, and the cold end is space, and it’s always cold.
I used the term ‘something like’ advisadly. A stirling engine works on heat rejection – space is where the heat is rejected to, the cold ends of the engine are the poles.
Small point – glad you liked the analogy.
Jack, the poles are radiators due to geometry. As far as I know no one has demonstrated how CO2 changes geometry.
RWTurner,
“Jack, the poles are radiators due to geometry.”
Exactly – we have the good fortune to live in a well organised engine. Geometry is not changing CO2 levels, we are. We are raising the octane rating of the fuel to a level the engine cannot handle – or rather, produces an output we don’t want.
jack, you are forgetting that without ice at the north pole more heat is lost to space . the ice acts as insulation for the ocean beneath.
Bitchilly, that’s not so either. Just as in your gin and tonic, more ice is better if you want it chilled, and the driver of Earth’s powerful circulation system is the heat difference between lower latitudes and higher latitudes. The alternating annual melt and freeze at the poles is also part of the delicate dance. By heating the poles, we’re stuffing that up.
Jack, bad (second) analogy. In my Gin and Tonics, there is nowhere in the glass the melted ice can get to where it will refreeze.
Dixon, yes you’re right – but I enjoyed the G&T. What I should have said is yes, Bitchilly, the sea will radiate more energy, but at the same time it is absorbing far more than would the ice, which is reflective. As too much of the radiated energy is trapped in the greenhouse, the overall effect of losing sea ice is an increase in the rate of heat gain – which we don’t want.
at low incident angles open water has an albedo in the same range as ice. In summer 3/4 arctic open water radiates far more than it receives except for solar noon, and only for a couple months.
Open arctic water cools the planet.
The observed saturation effect above 28 °C ( this happens in the WPWP) is explainable with the “Iris” which is real from obs., see http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016JD025827/abstract
The “knee” in the land data is really interesting. Latitude related?
The other thing I noticed was that you pointed out the El Nino at the end of the data. IIRC there was an El Nino about 2010 but it was much smaller and it doesn’t seem to be reflected in the TOA. Seems to imply there might be a threshold for the TOA to be affected?
The first thing is to ask the right question.
While I’m not a Will Smith fan, and I would have preferred a faithful screen play of “Caves of Steel”, that was a pretty good movie all the same.
Awesome job Willis! Kind of reminiscent of Spencer & Braswell.
Percy W.Bridgman the Harvard physicist and winner of the 1946 Nobel Prize in the field of high pressure physics reminds everyone of the importance of verification in science and of the danger of talking about the future.
He believed in the “inscrutable character of the future”. He thought that statements about the future belonged in the category of pseudo-statements.
” I personally do not think that one should speak of making statements about the future. For me,a statement implies the possibility of verifying its truth, and the truth of a statement about the future cannot be verified.”
Verification is important as he says, because ” Where there is no possibility of verification, there can be no error and ‘ truth’ becomes meaningless”.( ” The Way things are”, P.W. Bridgman, 1959.)
Global Warming issues involve the projection of increasing levels of CO2 into the inscrutable future.
It is not possible to determine global temperature in advance by reference solely to the laws of chemistry and physics.
(h/t ” The Age of Global Warming-A History”, Rupert Darwall.)
Very perceptive point from Mr. Bridgman. There are parts of the universe that we simply cannot know.
To me the central mistake in current thinking about climate is the idea that the atmosphere can somehow INCREASE the temperature of the surface, or even worse the deep oceans.
The atmosphere merely reduces energy loss to space
A few meters under our feet the temperature is completely set by geothermal energy. Same for the deep oceans. The sun only warms a few (centi)meters of the soil, and the upper 200 meters or so of the oceans.
The temperature of deeper soil/water is completely caused by the enormous amount of heat inside planet Earth.
Think solar Joules INCREASING the temperature of pre-heated soil/water iso solar W/m^2 being in radiative balance using SB and the whole climate system makes perfect sense.
Ben Wouters,
Sorry, that’s all arse about face. Being more thermally dense than air, soil and sea actively suck the heat trapped by CO2 out of the air. Soil radiates the heat back at night, but conduction and convection spread the heat throughout the ocean, to surprising depth.
We don’t live several meters below our feet, we live in the region between our feet and 2 meters above them.
Care to explain why the temperature increases ~25k for every km you go down below the surface ?
(geothermal gradient)
Miracle CO2 at work?
Ben – its under emmense pressure and it’s radioactive. There’s heat remaining from Earth’s original thermal collapse. Nobody’s disputing it’s hot.
Jack Davis July 13, 2017 at 3:13 pm
Great. Then why is the 255K radiative balance temperature used, that assumes a body that will be at 0K without incoming radiation?
More relevant is the average surface temperature of our moon: 197K.
Do you actually believe that backradiation of the atmosphere is the explanation for the over 90K higher average temperatures on Earth?
If so, where are the backradiation panels? Almost twice the average radiation as the sun delivers according K&T, available 24/7. Would be a perfect energy source if it were physical reality.
Ben Wouters,
You say: “To me the central mistake in current thinking about climate is the idea that the atmosphere can somehow INCREASE the temperature of the surface, or even worse the deep oceans.”
Then in the next sentence you contradict yourself when you say: “The atmosphere merely reduces energy loss to space”
Well, exactly right. The introduction of an atmosphere to an atmosphere-less rocky planet REDUCES the rate at which energy can flow to space, thus causing the surface temperature to INCREASE to a higher level in order to maintain radiative balance. So no “central mistake” there…
Then you go off into an irrelevance spiral of nonsense about geothermal heat. You seem to misunderstand the difference between the QUANTITY of heat held by a body (a function of its thermal capacity) and the RATE at which the heat can flow away from that body (a function of its conductivity). The centre of the earth is very hot indeed. However the mean rate at which heat flows up to the surface is estimated at 0.087 watt/square metre. That’s 0.03 percent of the solar power absorbed by the Earth. So forget it. Please…
Finally, you ask Jack Wouters: “Do you actually believe that back radiation of the atmosphere is the explanation for the over 90K higher average temperatures on Earth? If so, where are the back radiation panels? Almost twice the average radiation as the sun delivers according K&T, available 24/7. Would be a perfect energy source if it were physical reality.”
This is a howler of the utmost naivety. It has been corrected by me and others on WUWT and elsewhere countless times. The well-known K&T energy balance diagram does NOT, repeat NOT, imply a downward flow of “almost twice the average radiation as the sun delivers”. That would be a violation of the second law of thermodynamics!
Just google “K&T diagram” and take another much closer look. According t their figures, the Sun delivers 161W/m2 radiation downwards to the earth’s surface and the earth’s surface radiates upwards just 63W/m2 (the other balancing upward flows are due to convection and evaporation). Your confusion may have arisen from the fact that the diagram shows radiative potentials, not radiative energy flows. You need to subtract the K&T downward radiative potential of 333W/m2 from the upward radiative potential of 396W/m2 to get the true energy flow figure of 63W/m2. Please go study the physics of radiation…
Ben Wouters,
You say: “To me the central mistake in current thinking about climate is the idea that the atmosphere can somehow INCREASE the temperature of the surface, or even worse the deep oceans.”
Then in the next sentence you contradict yourself when you say that: “The atmosphere merely reduces energy loss to space”
Well, exactly right. The introduction of an atmosphere to an atmosphere-less rocky planet REDUCES the rate at which energy can flow to space, thus causing the surface temperature to INCREASE to a higher level in order to maintain radiative balance. So no “central mistake” there…
Then you go off into an irrelevant spiral of nonsense about geothermal heat. You seem to misunderstand the difference between the QUANTITY of heat held by a body and the RATE at which the heat can flow away from that body. The centre of the earth is very hot indeed but the mean rate at which heat flows up to the surface is estimated at 0.087 watt/square metre. That’s 0.03 percent of the solar power absorbed by the Earth. So forget it. Please…
Finally, you ask Ben Wouters: “Do you actually believe that backradiation of the atmosphere is the explanation for the over 90K higher average temperatures on Earth? If so, where are the backradiation panels? Almost twice the average radiation as the sun delivers according K&T, available 24/7. Would be a perfect energy source if it were physical reality.”
This is a howler of the utmost naivety. It has been corrected by me and others on WUWT and elsewhere many times. The well-known K&T energy balance diagram does NOT, repeat NOT, imply a downward flow of “almost twice the average radiation as the sun delivers”.
Just google “K&T diagram” and take another closer look at it. The Sun delivers 161W/m2 downwards to the earth’s surface; and the earth’s surface radiates upwards just 63W/m2 (the rest goes upwards by convection and evaporation). Your confusion may have arisen from the fact that the diagram shows radiative potentials, not radiative energy flows. You need to subtract the K&T downward radiative potential of 333W/m2 from the upward radiative potential of 396W/m2 to get the correct energy flow figure of 63W/m2. Please go study the physics…
David Cosserat July 15, 2017 at 4:57 am
What happens on some rocky planet is not really relevant here. With an average surface temperature of ~290K and assuming emissivity=1.0 Earth would radiate ~400 W/m^2 directly to space. Due to the atmosphere Earth only emits ~240 W/m^2. Where i live this is called “reducing energy loss”.
On Earth the surface temperatures are NOT in radiative balance with incoming solar. Daytime temperatures on the moon however come close, nighttime temps there are much to high.
On planet Earth we have an ENERGY balance between incoming solar radiation and outgoing longwave radiation.
For continental crust average is more like 65 mW/m^2, but you don’t seem to understand how conduction works. For a flux to exist we must have a temperature difference. Flux is from the hot mantle through the crust to the surface. So the entire crust is heated by the hot mantle.
Sun only warms the upper (centi)meters of the soil a few degrees. The base temperature of the soil just below our feet is roughly equal to the average surface temperature at that location, and COMPLETELY caused by geothermal energy.
Interested to hear your explanation for the over 90K higher average surface temperature on Earth compared to that of the moon. (albedo is also lower on the moon!)
Radiative POTENTIAL versus Radiative ENERGY FLOW
Unfortunately Ben Wouters’ reply (July 15, 2017 at 10:19am) is as incoherent as his original comment (July 13, 2017 at 4:30am) to which I had responded (July 15, 2017 at 4:57am). He has not directly addressed the points I made, instead just generating additional confusion. So I fear that further communication with him is unlikely to be productive.
However in the interests of others here who may have been puzzled by his ramblings…
1. The mean surface temperature of the earth has been estimated at about 288K (~15degC). So, using the Stefan-Boltzmann formula with emissivity = 1, we can calculate that the surface will assert a mean radiative POTENTIAL of about 390W/m2. This calculation concurs very closely with the K-T energy balance diagram value of 396W/m2.
2. The earth’s air is also warm. It contains radiative gases that collectively assert a downward radiative POTENTIAL towards the earth’s surface. Most of these downward contributions come from the region in the lower atmosphere close to the surface where emissions can potentially get through to the surface without being absorbed by other molecules on the way. The K-T diagram’s estimate for this downward radiative POTENTIAL is 333W/m2. This figure is similar to but somewhat less than the upward radiative POTENTIAL of 390W/m2. This is because the contributing atmospheric molecules are not all at the surface temperature of 288K. They are ranged at various heights, and, in accordance with the atmospheric lapse rate, temperatures are lower with increasing distance above the ground. Using the Stefan-Boltzmann formula, we find that a 333W/m2 downward radiative POTENTIAL would be asserted by a solid body having a temperature of 277K. So this figure can regarded as the atmosphere’s effective surface temperature.
3. Now for the key point. Standard textbook thermodynamics (as opposed to Wouters in Wonderland Physics) tells us that, when two bodies assert radiative POTENTIALS towards one another, the rate at which radiative ENERGY is transferred between them is simply equal to the difference between the POTENTIALS.
4. So in the case of the earth’s surface-atmosphere interface, the radiative ENERGY transferred is 396 – 333 = 63W/m2 (as opposed to the colossal 333W/m2 downward flow of radiative ENERGY FLOW that Wouters erroneously claims the K&T diagram implies). Also note that the direction of the 63W/m radiative ENERGY FLOW is upwards not downwards, from warmer earth at 288K to the slightly cooler atmosphere at its effective surface temperature of 277K. This, of course, is in full conformance with the Second Law of Thermodynamics.
Like most of us here, Ben Wouters is sceptical of the case for CAGW, and undoubtedly his heart is in the right place. But, sadly, his enthusiasm for the cause is completely undermined by getting his physics so horribly wrong. His muddled approach is in danger of damaging the sceptical cause. I think this is dangerous to the extent that it can so easily give succour to climate alarmists.
_____________
P.S. He is also entirely wrong about geothermal heat. It contributes around 0.087W/m2 to the incoming energy FLOW to the earth’s surface from below, compared with the Sun’s incoming energy FLOW of 161W/m2 from above. Go figure…
David Cosserat July 16, 2017 at 7:59 am
David, this might make sense but only if you give us a clear definition of just what you mean by “radiative POTENTIAL”. I’ve never seen the term used in that manner, and Google appears to be equally clueless.
w.
except that isnt what it is radiating to. The optical window is 70F or over 100F colder than the ground, depending on absolute humidity all day long, as long as there are no clouds, which could reduce the difference to as little as 10F.
The rest of the spectrum also changes during the day, mostly because water vapor is storing energy in the day, and releasing it at night to limit the drop in surface temps. That is your gh effect, and because the release of the energy stored is dependent on air temps dropping near dew point temps, and doesn’t release much when temps are not near dew point, this is a negative feedback on co2. And this shows this in action
And when you look at the overall impact on surface stations you see it controls daily Min T, not Co2.
Since you don’t seem to understand the difference between the geothermal FLUX through the crust and the geothermal TEMPERATURE of that crust let’s have a look at the deep ocean floor.
Geothermal flux through the oceanic crust is ~101 mW/m^2.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/93RG01249/abstract
For energy to flow from the crust to the deep ocean bottom water the TEMPERATURE of the ocean floor has to be slightly higher than the temperature of that water. So the ENTIRE oceanic crust is warmer than the deep ocean water, otherwise the conductive flux would not exist.
Same for the continental crust. Confusing apparently is that the sun warms the upper (centi)meters of that crust, but the crust just below our feet is ENTIRELY warmed from below. The sun only increases the temperature of the top soil a bit above the geothermal temperature.
If we remove the atmosphere of planet Earth the surface would radiate directly to space, and loose ~400 W/m^2 (and obviously start to cool down rapidly since the sun does not provide this kind of energy.)
WITH atmosphere Earth emits only ~240 W/m^2 to space which the sun can match, so we have a balanced ENERGY budget. Normally this is called “reducing energy loss” by the atmosphere.
If you are unable to understand that solar radiation can increase the temperature of the geothermally pre-heated soil a few degrees to the observed surface temperatures, I’m afraid nothing will make you understand.
Radiative POTENTIAL versus Radiative ENERGY FLOW
Unfortunately Ben Wouters’ reply (July 15, 2017 at 10:19am) is as incoherent as his original comment (July 13, 2017 at 4:30am) to which I had responded (July 15, 2017 at 4:57am). He has not directly addressed the points I made, instead just generating additional confusion. So I fear that further communication with him is unlikely to be productive.
However in the interests of others here who may have been puzzled by his ramblings…
1. The mean surface temperature of the earth has been estimated at about 288K (~15degC). So, using the Stefan-Boltzmann formula with emissivity = 1, we can calculate that the surface will assert a mean radiative POTENTIAL of about 390W/m2. This calculation concurs very closely with the K-T energy balance diagram value of 396W/m2.
2. The earth’s air is also warm. It contains radiative gases that collectively assert a downward radiative POTENTIAL towards the earth’s surface. Most of these downward contributions come from the region in the lower atmosphere close to the surface where emissions can potentially get through to the surface without being absorbed by other molecules on the way. The K-T diagram’s estimate for this downward radiative POTENTIAL is 333W/m2. This figure is similar to but somewhat less than the upward radiative POTENTIAL of 390W/m2. This is because the contributing atmospheric molecules are not all at the surface temperature of 288K. They are ranged at various heights, and, in accordance with the atmospheric lapse rate, temperatures are lower with increasing distance above the ground. Using the Stefan-Boltzmann formula, we find that a 333W/m2 downward radiative POTENTIAL would be asserted by a solid body having a temperature of 277K. So this figure can regarded as the atmosphere’s effective surface temperature‘.
3. Now for the key point. Standard textbook thermodynamics (as opposed to Wouters Wonderland Physics) tells us that, when two bodies assert radiative POTENTIALS towards one another, the rate at which radiative ENERGY is transferred between them is simply equal to the difference between the POTENTIALS.
4. So in the case of the earth’s surface-atmosphere interface, the radiative energy transferred is 396 – 333 = 63W/m2 (as opposed to the colossal 333W/m2 downward flow of radiative ENERGY FLOW that Wouters erroneously claims the K&T diagram implies). Also note that the direction of the 63W/m2 radiative ENERGY FLOW is upwards, from warmer earth at 288K to the slightly cooler atmosphere at its effective surface temperature of 277K. This, of course, is in full conformance with the Second Law of Thermodynamics.
Like most of us here, Ben Wouters is sceptical of the case for CAGW, and undoubtedly his heart is in the right place. But, sadly, his enthusiasm for the cause is completely undermined by getting his physics so horribly wrong. His muddled approach is in danger of damaging the sceptical cause. I think this is dangerous to the extent that it can so easily give succour to climate alarmists.
_____________
P.S. He is also entirely wrong about geothermal heat. It contributes around 0.087W/m2 to the incoming energy FLOW to the earth’s surface from below, compared with the Sun’s incoming energy FLOW of 161W/m2 from above. Go figure…
Willis,
Re. your query of July 16, 2017 at 8:58 am, I’m very glad to have this discussion with you and others. It is something I have been banging on about for a long time without much response. I think it is the definitional key to stopping some earnest well-meaning sceptics falling into the trap of looking ridiculous in the eyes of the CAGW crowd, thereby endangering all our sceptical contributions to the climate debate.
I do believe the term ‘back radiation’ is a useful way of characterising a phenomenon in the real physical world but only if it means the POTENTIAL to radiate energy (in W/m2 as calculated by the S-B equation R = kT^4) from a cooler body in the direction of a warmer body, and not the ACTUAL transfer of radiative energy. Likewise for consistency, one can define ‘forward radiation’ to mean the POTENTIAL to radiate from a warmer body towards a cooler body but again, not the actual transfer of radiative energy.
You showed both these POTENTIALs in your famous ‘steel greenhouse’ articles so many years ago, perhaps without realising at the time , as I did not, that they could best be considered as potentials, not flows.
Given these definitions, the ACTUAL radiative ENERGY FLOW (also in W/m2) that takes place between two opposing bodies is then simply the difference between the two independently calculated radiative POTENTIALS:
I = (k1.T1^4 – k2.T2^4)
and the direction of the resultant energy flow is (by definition) always from the warmer to the cooler body, thus satisfying the 2LT.
There is nothing remotely revolutionary about this. The equations are standard and can be found in every thermodynamics textbook. The R = kT^4 equation is actually an explanatory abstraction representing a non-physical situation. It is akin, say, to the theoretical concept of a magnetic monopole. But in the real world, all bodies exert radiative POTENTIALs towards one (or more*) other bodies, which in turn exert radiative POTENTIAL(s) back. This is even true in space where a body might be exerting its radiative POTENTIAL only towards the cosmic microwave background – but the latter is equivalent to an extremely cold body exerting back a radiative POTENTIAL of around 0.000003W/m2 corresponding to a temperature of 2.7K.
So my concept of a radiative POTENTIAL is simply a definitional approach, a reminder for climate sceptics everywhere to help prevent them making arses of themselves, as I am afraid they still do every now-and-then, by attempting to ridicule warmists such as Trenberth, or whoever, for saying (which they certainly do not) that the surface of our planet is being kept warm by energy flowing from a magical ‘back radiation’ source of 333W/m2; or that pyrgeometer measuring instruments are fakes. And so on, …and on…in a vain effort to over-complicate what is actually an elegant and simple situation.
As we know, the surface is actually being kept warm by 161W/m2 of incoming solar radiation, balanced by outgoing energy flows of 63W/m2 radiation + 80W/m2 evapotranspiration + 17 thermals or thereabouts. (K&T say that the 1 W/m2 discrepancy is heating the planet, which sounds to me like fiddling with the homework.)
[*Note1: The mathematics for a body that asserts a radiative POTENTIAL towards more than one other body in fractional proportions such that, consequently, those other bodies assert radiative potentials towards the body in the same proportions, is dealt with using fractional multipliers called View Factors. It all fits together with what I have said here but it is not a relevant complication in the case of the K-T diagram issue where only 2 bodies – atmosphere and surface – are involved. I only mention it because somebody is bound to bring it up as a killer spoiler argument against what I am saying.]
[Note 2: Modern physicists don’t need all this stuff because they deal in photon streams. So they are quite happy to think of back radiation and forward radiation as real physical flows of energy and can’t understand what all the fuss is about. But since one flow is always netted off against the other, they come to no different conclusions. However I am not interested in that debate because modern physicists don’t (generally) make arses of them selves over this issue.]
All the best,
David
David, happily you have articulated a concept I had struggled with since viewing Trenberth’s diagram. There is no “flow” from the atmosphere to the surface. Your description of “potentials” neatly describes the physics of energy transfer from warmer to cooler.
Within the margins of error of total energy flow in the real atmosphere, CO2 plays an unmeasurable role. 0.6 +/- 17 W/m*2 is laughable “science.” Please note the most recent diagrams don’t have the +/- 17 listed anywhere.
David Cosserat July 16, 2017 at 11:57 am
The POTENTIAL to radiate? I asked what that means. You’ve given me nothing. How does one measure such a POTENTIAL, and what does it mean?
I fear that when you invent a brand new concept, as you have done with the “POTENTIAL to radiate”, you need to define it unequivocally … which you absolutely have NOT done.
Give it another shot. Start by saying “Radiation potential is …” and go on from there.
w.
I read it as the equivalent of a voltage potential. ie SB flux potential. Now make what you will of that, and or wait for David.
This wouldn’t be too unusual a use in an antenna field where you’re looking at field strength, and such.
Dave Fair July 16, 2017 at 5:54 pm
There is indeed a flow from the atmosphere to the surface. It is smaller than the flow from the surface to the atmosphere. The fact that it is real is obvious from the fact that downwelling radiation is MEASURED EVERY DAY ALL AROUND THE WORLD.
Truly, Dave, you should research before writing … grab any decent thermo textbook and they’ll tell you the same. The flows in both directions are REAL.
Sheesh … it’s taking longer than I thought …
w.
Willis Eschenbach July 16, 2017 at 6:41 pm
The pyrgeometers used are basically IR thermometers, with a filter on top that allows only certain IR bands to pass. From the measured temperature a flux is CALCULATED.
Ever been to a sauna? Air temperature 90 centigrade or so. Most people do survive saunas very well.
Jump in a pool of water at 90 centrigrade and your chances of survival are negligible.
Air (even with a lot of water vapor) has a much lower energy density than eg water at the same temperature.
I don’t have a pyrgeometer, but I’m pretty sure that when you point one to some air and then to some water at the same temperature the reading would be the same as well.
Willis,
Thanks for responding.
The concept of a ‘potential’ in physics is well founded – e.g. the potential of a battery to pass energy to another system (unit: volt); the potential of a wound-up spring to do work (unit: newton); the potential for the water in a reservoir to flow down to a turbine (unit: metre). Engineers find it useful to discuss and measure all these potentials and many others.
In the textbooks, the standard formula Qdot[Watts] = kAT^4 is introduced to students to specify the maximum radiative energy flow rate from a body. This is for the theoretical case where there is no other body radiating back. In other words it is the potential to radiate into a hypothetical black universe at 0K, which does not exist. Beyond that, for practical applications students are taught that they must offset each body’s radiation against the other to obtain the net energy transfer.
I do share your frustration that some people will not buy the idea that, in a radiative interaction between two bodies, the ‘photonic’ paradigm is correct, namely that there is a two way energy transfer (where the hotter body always wins, so no violation of the 2nd law occurs). But the problem remains that some people forget (or have never learned) that radiation is an interaction between two bodies and that the cooler body is not just a passive recipient of whatever is thrown at it. On the contrary, the magnitude of its own radiative potential is absolutely pivotal in determining the RATE at which the transfer takes place. A failure to appreciate this leads to the claim that radiative gases in the atmosphere ‘do not act like a blanket slowing down heat loss to space’. Whereas that is EXACTLY what they do.
Consequently, people have put enormous amount of effort into offering bizarre alternative theories, such as Ben Wouters’ nonsense theory that geothermal energy (0.087W/m2) is the source of the Earth’s surface warming (boosted presumably just a little by the Sun’s 161W/m2). And his claim that the K-T diagram is crazily wrong because it depicts 333W/m2 of radiative energy coming from back radiation panels in the sky.
He is not alone. Hence my effort to find a way of explaining to my fellow sceptics that the K-T diagram is not conceptually wrong and that they must stop knocking it with baseless objections that just display their ignorance. Doing so does harm to the credibility of the climate sceptic cause, which I believe, despite the Wouters of this world, is growing stronger every day.
Cheers
David
David Cosserat July 17, 2017 at 4:55 pm
David, thanks for your reply. What you say above is true. So what? The fact that a “potential” exists in some situations means nothing about some imagined “potential to radiate”.
I fear you need to read the textbooks again. The formula is for the amount that the body radiates at a given temperature, period. At that temperature, it radiates the same whether there is a body radiating back or not. What, do you think a body stays the same temperature but changes the amount it radiates if we remove objects from its vicinity? SHOW ME THE TEXTBOOK THAT SAYS THAT!
I certainly agree that many people do not understand that there is a flow of photons going in both directions, one from the atmosphere to the surface and the other one from the surface to the atmosphere. And I applaud your efforts to fix that.
However, introducing a new and unknown concept such as “radiative potential” makes things worse, not better.
Regards,
w.
David Cosserat July 17, 2017 at 4:55 pm
Apparently still clueless about the difference between TEMPERATURE and FLUX.
This is stuff we learn in high school over here.
quick google: http://www.ewp.rpi.edu/hartford/~ernesto/F2014/MMEES/Papers/ENERGY/7AlternativeEnergy/Ground/Florides-GroundTemperatureMeasurement.pdf
Care to explain why the temperatures in deep mines are so much higher than the surface?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TauTona_Mine
Sun is not warming a blackbody from 0K to 255K establishing radiative balance.
It just increases the temperature of the surface a bit above the GEOTHERMALLY caused base temperature.
Problem is the people who believe the thin, cold, low density, low energy content atmosphere can somehow INCREASE the surface temperature of soil and oceans.
The atmosphere just reduces the energy loss to space. Period.
Hi micro6500,
At July 17, 2017 at 7.22am you said to Willis: I read [radiative potential] as the equivalent of a voltage potential. ie SB flux potential. Now make what you will of that, and or wait for David. This wouldn’t be too unusual a use in an antenna field where you’re looking at field strength, and such.
Right on the money! As an electrical engineer I applaud your example.
Another electrical example is the concept of ‘back emf’. The term ’emf’ (electromotive force) is a synonym for ‘voltage’, and so is also measured in volts. In practice, the term is typically used for the counter-voltage, called the ‘back emf’ that is asserted with opposite polarity by a recipient of electrical energy, such as an electric motor, towards its electrical energy source. This effective reduction in net voltage (not measurable on the wire) limits the rate of energy transfer from the source to the sink:
effective voltage = source emf – back emf
What a wonderful analogy to the ‘back radiation’ effect.
All the best,
David
In motors, it’s the back voltage generated as one of the magnetic fields collapses. So while it repeats, it is short lived. And this kind of fits what the atm does, it self regulates temperatures at the surface late at night by stealing energy from water vapor.
The surface is the regulated side of a heat engine using water as the working fluid that cycles once a day.
Think about that 🙂
Oh, and because it’s temperature regulated by dew point, changes to co2 just change “when” water vapor warming turns on at night. Since it’s nonlinear, as the days get a little longer co2 no longer has an effect on min T.
I’m going to keep trying to get people to understand this. Water vapor regulates air temps, co2 while a radiative gas, changes have little to no effect because water vapor just cancels it out.
I know some of you can get this if you just think about it.
There is no global warming from co2, and there no need to try and average 140 million temps to see what they are doing. It’s a simple logic problem, where everyone already knows what the results are, they just don’t realize it’s actively regulated.
And David it goes to your potentials, the optical window when it’s clear out is open to space all day long, and it’s cold! I’ve seen over 100F colder than the ground, on a sunny day.
There’s always a cold sink, so why does it nearly stop cooling in the middle of a clear night?
David Cosserat July 18, 2017 at 2:50 am
If that is the case, I wouldn’t hire either of you for electrical work. Look, the term “potential” means there is an OPTION. In an antenna, it can transmit or not transmit, so it has a potential to transmit. Or “potential energy”, which means there is an OPTION for it to be changed into some kind of other energy.
But where is the option with something radiating according to the S/B formula. Can you make it stop radiating that amount at that temperature? No. Can you make it radiate more or less at that temperature. No.
Heck, you can look at the dictionary definition of “potential” to see that it doesn’t apply:
Just exactly what is it that you expect a radiating object to “become or develop into something in the future”?
So no, there’s no “potential” in thermal radiation. It just radiates according to the formula, period. Nothing in the slightest about it that says “potential”.
Regards,
w.
Of course there’s potential willis, first a better definition
https://isaacphysics.org/s/Xlrabk
And my IR thermometer measures temperature field potential. And when your temperature potential between 2 objects is large enough, you can turn that potential into work.
Willis,
Terminology is only useful if it is not misleading. In electrical engineering it is common and perfectly sensible to talk about the ‘potential difference’ (measured in volts), between the plus and minus terminals of a source of electrical power such as a battery, irrespective of whether those terminals are (or are not) connected to a circuit. In the one case energy flows. In the other case it does not.
Despite the above, I do understand the point you are making in the particular case of electromagnetic radiation where the modern photonic theory of EMR assumes there are real flows of energy-carrying photons in both directions between two radiating bodies, with only the difference resulting in net energy transfer, always from hotter to cooler. I subscribe to that theory too, as do most professional engineers and physicists.
But I think we are both equally sick and tired of climate sceptics who bang on about back radiation (meaning energy flow from a cooler to a hotter body) being unreal ‘because it violates the 2LT’. For some reason they simply cannot grasp the concept that the back and forth radiation flows between two bodies are inextricably interlinked. Yet this is geometrically undeniable because they are, to use the jargon, ‘in the view’ of each other. Given this reality, the net flow of energy is inevitably from the hotter to the cooler surface, and there is no violation of the 2LT.
So they look at the K-T diagram, and see lots of energy flows with numbers on them. In particular their eyes alight on the ‘huge’ 333W/m2 back radiation figure from atmosphere to surface and treat it as if it were a stand-alone independent flow that they can cast mighty scorn upon. In their fury they seem blinded to the greater (and inextricably interlinked) figure of 396W/m2 of forward radiation from the surface, thus resulting in a modest net radiation flow upwards of only 63W/m2.
Having, as they think, demolished K-T, they then proceed to provide crazy alternative explanations for why the surface is warmer than it would be with no atmosphere, such as Wouter’s ludicrous idea that geothermal heat (at 0.086W/m2) is the true cause of the earth’s elevated atmospheric surface temperature.
There’s probably no hope of changing such people’s minds, but, in a modest attempt to help others falling into the same intellectual trap, I was simply offering an alternative way of looking at the issue for people who are unconvinced by, or indeed unaware of, statistical thermodynamics.
All the best
David
David Cosserat July 20, 2017 at 7:22 am
Suggest to go back to school and study conduction. The HOT mantle loses energy by conduction through the crust, and at the surface a flux remains of ~65 mW/m^2 (continental crust). But the ENTIRE crust is warmed from below. So the soil just below our feet is WARMER than the surface due to GEOTHERMAL ENERGY.
Consequently the whole idea that the sun is unable to warm the surface to our observed values is wrong.
The atmosphere does NOT need to warm the surface above what the sun has already done, it merely reduces energy loss to space.
Still awaiting your explanation for the 25K/km increasing temperature when going down into the crust or the 330K plus temperatures of the rockwand in deep mines.
Since you dismiss geothermal, what is the real cause?
Backconductive potential perhaps, or deep penetrating backradiation from the atmosphere?
The formulas used in the pyrgeometers that measure backradiation don’t seem to have a factor for emissivity. Is the emissivity of the atmosphere 1.0? Higher than eg oceanwater?
PS posting the same nonsense twice as you do regularly doesn’t make it any more credible.
Willis,
Terminology is only useful if it is not misleading. In electrical engineering it is common and perfectly sensible to talk about the ‘potential difference’ (measured in volts), between the plus and minus terminals of a source of electrical power such as a battery, irrespective of whether those terminals are (or are not) connected to a circuit. In the one case energy flows. In the other case it does not.
Despite the above, I do understand the point you are making in the particular case of electromagnetic radiation where the modern photonic theory of EMR assumes there are real flows of energy-carrying photons in both directions between two radiating bodies, with only the difference resulting in net energy transfer, always from hotter to cooler. I subscribe to that theory too, as do most professional engineers and physicists.
But I think we are both equally sick and tired of climate sceptics who bang on about back radiation (meaning energy flow from a cooler to a hotter body) being unreal ‘because it violates the 2LT’. For some reason they simply cannot grasp the concept that the back and forth radiation flows between two bodies are inextricably interlinked. Yet this is geometrically undeniable because they are, to use the jargon, ‘in the view’ of each other. Given this reality, the net flow of energy is inevitably from the hotter to the cooler surface, and there is no violation of the 2LT.
So they look at the K-T diagram, and see lots of energy flows with numbers on them. In particular, their eyes alight on the ‘huge’ 333W/m2 ‘back’ radiation figure from atmosphere to surface and treat it as if it were a stand-alone independent flow hat they can cast mighty scorn upon. In their fury they seem blinded to the greater (and inextricably interlinked) figure of 396W/m2 of forward radiation from the surface, thus resulting in a modest net radiation flow upwards of only 63W/m2.
Having, as they think, demolished K-T, they then proceed to provide crazy alternative explanations for why the surface is warmer than it would be with no atmosphere, such as Wouter’s idea that geothermal heat (at 0.087W/m2) is the true cause of the earth’s elevated atmospheric surface temperature.
There’s probably no hope of changing such people’s minds, but, in a modest attempt to help others falling into the same intellectual trap, I was simply offering an alternative way of looking at the issue for people who are unconvinced by, or indeed unaware of, statistical thermodynamics.
All the best
David
It is important to note that because the system is inhomogeneous and the radiation depends on the average of T^4 values while the T depends on the average of T values one can easily show with area weighted averages for a large inhomogeneous system that it is possible to change the average T in either direction and simultaneously have the average T^4 go in the other direction within a few kelvin. This can be shown with a simple excel spreadsheet. The large disparity in temperatures around the surface matters quite a bit when discussing total radiation from the surface.
Exactly. Average temperature is a poor metric for climate change because it assumes the spatial distribution of temperature will remain unchanged as the climate changes, which is a nonsense.
For comparisons with the means calculated from , eg : ToA power measurements , temperatures should be converted to energies , averaged , then converted back .
This is what I started doing with my last run.
But, after spending 10 years looking at surface data, it was sort of a waste of time. While it clearly shows that the temperature record is not being forced by a slight, increasing forcing, and it shows that when water vapor level drop, air temps drop like a rock, and rel humidity is actually going down slightly, and this alnoe is proof there is little warming from the increases in co2.
You only need need to look at the temperature drop and radiation at night under clear clam skies to prove co2 has little to no effect on Min T (and surface data confirms it follows dew point).
At night water vapor actively tries to reduce how cold it gets. Deserts and tropical jungles are extreme examples of this in operation. That warm muggy feel, is water vapor condensing and liberating it’s stored heat of evaporation, that helps warm the air, and changes the fundamental cooling rate, this is above the ^4th power reduction, plus most people actually use the wrong equilibrium temp, the optical window, half of the spectrum space is clear to space for all bands except 1 water vapor line, and when it’s clear and low humidity it’s 100F or more colder than the surface, and tracks air temps, so it’s still 100F colder at 5am as it was at 6pm.
You can’t see this process optically (and no it is not fog!!!!), but I captured a short video of the road in the afternoon after a short shower.
https://micro6500blog.files.wordpress.com/2017/06/20170626_185905.mp4
Well at night as the atm column cools, water vapor will start to sink, and condense, and reeveporate, and you can see it on this hot asphalt with rain. And that same asphalt is still a lot warmer than grass at 5 am.
I don’t think you can covert temperatures to energy. Using SB, you can convert them to power, be we all know power and energy are two different things.
No it’s not converted to power, it’s converted to a instantaneous flux. To get power you multiply energy(flux) by time.
Surely the genius that built all the sophisticated global climate models (and spent many $100 M doing so over the last 40 years), did include that very basic algebraic knowledge. Surely !!!
But does anyone here among WUWT comments know if that is the case?
And if they did, they surely have NOT, done it at sufficient granularity (e.g., for the hundreds of individual cumulonimbus clouds from the tropics up to the mid-latitudes, on any given afternoon). I am looking a about 10 of them from my window now.
I meant “hundreds of thousands” of cumulonimbus clouds, where ever a summer afternoon is happening on the planet (and that happens constantly, across some large regions, over land, and parts of ocean).
Keep in mind that the delta T under consideration is roughly 1 K out of 288 K. Any calculation of the IR spectrum of CO2 in the atmosphere has to be good to 3 9’s, or it isn’t applicable to the problem.
Add to this the spatial time and temperature inhomogeneities already mentioned. Now consider that T only applies to the kinetic energy component of energy. Energy comes in as kinetic, but is partitioned into kinetic and potential once it gets to the planet. All by itself this partitioning will cause a drop in observed radiant T. We know it partitions because coal is chemically stored solar energy, and we have quite a bit of it. To calculate temperature changes on the order that is important to the “global warming” problem, we need to understand the spatial distribution of T and the changes in spatial distribution and the partition of KE into KE and PE within the system and how the partitioning changes with time, and we have to know all of this at least well enough to calculate a T change (KE only) to about 1 part per thousand. That’s for a coarse guess. To really nail it down it would be good to have another decimal place on that calculation. It looks like the entire effect is in the noise of the calculation. If so, that would explain the variation seen in the calculations. Within a few kelvin you could end up anywhere.
It also means that if you do not measure the entire planet 24×7, you do not really know what outgoing radiation, not to 0.1w/m^2 by any means.
“…a doubling of CO2 to 800 ppmv would warm the earth by about two-thirds of a degree …”
Isn’t that what Lindzen has been saying for a long time? Is it for the same reason?
Lindzen and Choi came at this from a slightly different perspective, if I remember correctly. I think this is more akin to Spence and Braswell. Both came up with climate sensitivities less than 1°C. But it’s been a while since a read either paper… And I’m not sure I understood Spencer’s methodology very well.
Interestingly, Trenberth et al’s rebuttal to Lindzen and Choi only managed to push the climate sensitivity up to 2.3°C. Both Lindzen’s and Trenberth’s sensitivity estimates were sensitive to the time range of the analysis.
I studied both papers, and think both are flawed. They rely on arbitrary lags. Both papers have also been pretty much refuted by later papers.
Yet observations seem to support the lower climate sensitivity estimates. I’ll go with observations over other papers.
All day long. Observations deliver a climate sensitivity from 0.5 to 1.75 C (2.35 in the case of Trenberth’s cherry picking). Models deliver >3 C.
I’m not sure if it’s the source of the hook in the land data, but land temps are actively regulated over the 24 hour solar cycle, and cooling is very nonlinear.
During the night, sensible heat from condensing water vapor in the collapsing atm column at the surface slows cooling, regulating min T to dew point.
Yes, I experienced this when I lived in Bahrain, which has an oppressive summer climate. High temps then average 99 F, but the humidity is very high, and with a dew point of 78 F, the night time low only gets down to 88F. Not very comfortable.
Interesting, as usual, Willis.
For fig 5 you said “First, correlation over the land is slightly positive, and over the ocean, it is slightly negative.”
Did you mean “First, correlation over the ocean is slightly positive, and over the land, it is slightly negative.
R
“If you want a red team to pursue the blues on this, you need to establish first what the blue team is actually saying.”
Of course. If someone criticizes what you say, just say you didn’t say that. You’ll never be wrong, Racehorse.
Andrew
Excellent! Willis, you are very good at making your analysis understandable to laymen. I hate to say “dumbing down”, but you are consistently good at dumbing topics down, which is really necessary to connect with the broad stroke of society, ie., laypersons. To the community who take the time to read and comment, bravo! But may I suggest you take a lesson from Willis and recognize that your excellent comments need to be “dumbed down” in language only so that laypersons can reap the value of them. Use small words to reach a larger audience. I love this website! Thank you.
Willis ….. I think your figure 1 figure 2 are the smoking gun that the temperature records are cooked. They should agree! I remember work by Lindzen and maybe Spencer that show TOA corresponds to SST. Yet ….. F1 and F2 don’t agree here.
Shouldn’t we treat the TOA data analogously to an exterior calculus integration over the whole planet? If more energy goes in than comes out, the interior will be heating up. That flux imbalance seems to be the case. There is enough weirdness inside that integration to account for the fact that we don’t know exactly how the excess energy is sequestered on the surface – but we know it’s lurking somewhere.
Jack Davis, exactly so. A more pedestrian example is a bathtub with more water coming in than going out.
Yeah Tom, I should have used that. It was the talk earlier on about quantum mechanics and how we can make precise predictions of useful outcomes (the phone I’m on for instance) without knowing what is actually going on down at the base of reality. I tried to apply that to the planet. Once you do that, a lot of the argument here is seen as sophistry – as ‘how many angels can dance on the head of a pin’ territory.
Let me know when you find the “Hot Spot” then I may start worrying about “Co2 induce global warming”.
“There are some interesting results there. First, correlation over the land is slightly positive, and over the ocean, it is slightly negative” Quote is from the article. Color coded plot of the earth above this quote seems it indicate the opposite… correlation over the land is slightly negative, an over the ocean is slightly positive.