From the University of Queensland
IMAGE: Climate change impacts Antarctic biodiversity habitat. view more
Credit: Peter Ryan
Ice-free areas of Antarctica – home to more than 99 per cent of the continent’s terrestrial plants and animals – could expand by more than 17,000km2 by the end of this century, a study published today in Nature reveals.
Led by University of Queensland School of Biological Sciences PhD student Jasmine Lee, the study is the first to investigate how ice-free areas in Antarctica may be affected by climate change.
Ms Lee said Antarctic ice-free areas cover less than one per cent of the continent, ranging from the size of a football pitch to the size of a small Pacific Island.
“Ice-free areas make for small patches of suitable habitat for plants and animals – like islands in a sea of ice,” she said.
“These areas are home to the majority of Antarctic species – from seals and seabirds to mosses, lichens and small invertebrates, such as tardigrades and springtails.
“Many of these species occur nowhere else in the world.”
To determine how much ice would melt around ice-free areas over the next 80 years as the climate warms, Ms Lee worked alongside colleagues from UQ, CSIRO, the Australian Antarctic Division and the British Antarctic Survey.
She found the melting ice could create up to 17,000km2 of new ice-free area across Antarctica – a 25 per cent increase on current levels.
Ms Lee said the majority of this melting would occur on the Antarctic Peninsula where the climate had already rapidly warmed.
“This expansion of ice-free habitat could lead to new opportunities for Antarctic biodiversity, although the warmer conditions will also encourage invasive species to establish,” Ms Lee said.
“Many native species have evolved isolated from each other for extended time periods; they are mainly constrained by the availability of resources, such as water and nutrients.
“How they will cope with increasing connectivity and competition from invasive species is largely unknown.”
Co-author and UQ researcher Dr Justine Shaw said, while Antarctic was one of the planet’s last wildernesses, research showed – like elsewhere – it has been altered by climate change.
“Our work shows habitats that already support invasive species will become larger, meaning there will be more patches of land that can support invasive weeds and invertebrates,” Dr Shaw said.
UQ Associate Professor Richard Fuller said the research provided a better understanding of climate change impacts on Antarctic biodiversity and plan conservation actions.
“We can use the models of expanding ice-free areas to help identify sites for protected areas, or pinpoint where we need to increase biosecurity,” Dr Fuller said.
“Humans are one of the primary vectors of invasive species to the continent.”
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The study was co-authored by scientists from the Australian Antarctic Division, British Antarctic Survey, CSIRO, UQ’s Centre for Biodiversity and Conservation Science and ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions, and University of Tasmania’s Institute of Marine and Antarctic Studies.
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Well, after watching Mad MAX again, I will have to assume that most Aussies are bat shit crazy !!
And even after the senseless slaughter at Gallipoli, ANZACs still remained the Allies’ elite assault shock troops on the Western Front in 1918.
Came here to see some massacre. Not.
The chance of large increases in ice free areas in Antarctica by the end of the century in about the same as the chance of ice covering the Sahara Desert. This article is not about science. It is about drawing conclusions based on the improbable premise that long-range climate can be successfully forecast. This is science fiction.
and by ‘lucky chance ‘ none of those making this claim will be around ‘by the end of the centenary’
“We can use the models of expanding ice-free areas to help identify sites for protected areas, or pinpoint where we need to increase biosecurity,” Dr Fuller said.
“Humans are one of the primary vectors of invasive species to the continent.”
No, not just people – scientists. The large majority of visitation and work, was due to, or somewhat connected to the population of scientists.
There is some eco-tourism, but it only affects the northern Peninsula and the McMurdo area. In the rest of Antarctica researchers are the only possible vectors for invasive species. Not even birds as in the rest of the world as all birds occurring inland are pelagic outside the breeding season.
And ecotourist firms are pretty strict about biosecurity I’m less certain about researchers, do they always decontaminate their boots before going ashore for example?
could , such a very useful word for it allows for grand claims to be made , often on little evidenced , but also offer the parachute of being able to claim you did not say it ‘would ‘ when those claims come to nothing . No wonder it is the favorite word for climate ‘science’ even more so as some people have whole careers based on this very ‘useful ‘ little word.
I think Mount Erebus, Deception Island and the Terror rift between, might have something to say about all this sometime. None of these scientist seem to think about what happens beneath our feet.
Abstract
Accelerating climate change driven population growth of grantiverous hominids on the Western Antarctic peninsula
Chugg, Scoff, Trough and Suck
Early expeditions to western Antarctica established the presence of a population of bipedal grantivores on the continent. This population correlated closely with the size of the research vessel’s roster, confirming climate change as the cause. The expedition subsequently stimulated a bout in of intense grantotrophic activity which resulted in a repetition of the same research cruise four years later. Spontaneous copycat grantivory in other populations of grantotrophes resulted in two research cruises arriving coincidently on the peninsula, prompting agressively competitive displays and vocalisations and some instances of appendage-endangering copulation. It was noted that the population of grantotrophic hominids was now more than twice what it had been at the previous research crews, and that the number of research vessels parked at the peninsula had in likewise manner doubled. The outcome of this second research cruise following departure from Antarctica was an even more intense outbreak of predatory grantiverous behaviour which spread to many globally distributed populations of grantotrophes. Two years later the number of research vessels which arrived simultaneously at the western Antarctic peninsula (this time bringing supplies of fur-lined preservatives) had risen to five. These observations lead to the firm conclusion that hyperbolic population growth and reproduction of grantitrophic hominids on the western Antarctic peninsula is driven by climate change.
Think of their children!!!
“Humans are one of the primary vectors of invasive species to the continent.”
and they buried the led … currently ice free area 1% … future modeled ice free area 1.25 % …
Think of it as evolution in action.
To be fair this study has to be based on models because observations disagree strongly. When people are guessing that global warming could eventually affect Antarctica when it has had no influence on 99% of the continent so far. At least with a model can hide how they come to this conclusion by not showing what factors were actually modelled. Papers involving models need all variables, equations and factors put in them to show what was involved and how they got their results and conclusions. Until this happens science is dead for a longer period still.
There is no warming over Antarctica because solar and oceans cycles have caused it and these don’t have any influence on Antarctica because of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current blocking the source off. (ACC)
http://i772.photobucket.com/albums/yy8/SciMattG/UAH_AntarcticTemps1978_zpsd4yjaujj.png
The new science of cause and assumed effect thus brings us a new saying:
A model a day, keeps the ice away!
Junk science, take present condition and extrapolate to decades ahead.
I stubbed my toe yesterday, I will extrapolate daily toe stubbing to 2100.
Policy outcome, everyone inside of the house must wear steel toe boots!
It rained yesterday. I wonder what scientifically accurate mysteries extrapolating rain every day to 2100 will reveal
This whole story is overblown to say the least.
“Ms Lee said the majority of this melting would occur on the Antarctic Peninsula where the climate had already rapidly warmed.”
Which it hasn’t recently. The climate is currently cooling in the Peninsula.
“Many native species have evolved isolated from each other for extended time periods”
Questionable. Most ice free areas in the Antarctic were ice-covered during the last glaciation. All species there are in a way invasive. There is a single endemic moss species and a fair number of endemic small invertebrates (mites, springtails etc) and microorganisms (microalgae, cyanobacteria) which are apparently the last remnants of the old Gondwanan fauna and flora that existed before the continent became completely glaciated 15 million years ago
“there will be more patches of land that can support invasive weeds and invertebrates”
Only one invasive “weed” has ever been reported from Antarctica, Poa annua annual bluegrass. Conditions are much too tough for virtually all vascular plants, even in the Peninsula, not to mention the rest of the continent. There are a number of (moderately) invasive weeds on South Georgia though.
Biodiversity in Antarctica can only go one way, and that is up.
The peninsular has warmed over the past 50 years but cooled over the last 15 years.
I pointed this out to Tamsin Edwards, BAS, when she was making a point of the 50 year warming trend, and of course the response “oh yeah I forgot about that”, which is complete nonsense, you don’t forget 15 years of a 50 year time frame, unless that 15 year chunk is inconvenient.