This morning, I received another email from the American Association for the Advancement of Science…
We cannot overstate this: Under the current administration, the future of scientific inquiry and discovery in the U.S. is in serious jeopardy.
You can do something important right now to protect our progress and our planet:become an AAAS member.
Organizations that have propelled us forward — NIH, NOAA, and the EPA, just to name a few — are facing major funding cuts. President Trump has begun the process of pulling the United States out of the Paris Climate Accord, putting us in the company of only two other nations to reject this planet-saving agreement.
As scientists, engineers, teachers, students, and science advocates,we must join forces and oppose this administration’s dire proposals for science. We must continue to educate and keep pressure on elected officials to make evidence- and research-based decisions that protect our planet and help all of humankind to progress.
American Association for the Advancement of Science
*Offer valid from May 31, 2017 to June 30, 2017, for new individual members only. There is a limit of one water bottle per membership order. Please allow up to four weeks for domestic delivery and up to five weeks for international delivery. The AAAS water bottle is provided as is without any guarantees or warranty and cannot be exchanged or returned. In association with the product, AAAS makes no warranties of any kind, either express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose.
I agree! “Let’s hold them accountable”!
Let’s hold them accountable for the epic failure of their climate models
Hansen’s 1988 model and GISTEMP, 5-yr running mean. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/04/17/the-good-the-bad-and-the-null-hypothesis/IPCC First Assessment Report (FAR). Model vs. HadCRUT4. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/04/17/the-good-the-bad-and-the-null-hypothesis/IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR) model vs. HadCRUT4.“Climate models versus climate reality.” https://judithcurry.com/2015/12/17/climate-models-versus-climate-reality/“95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong.” http://www.drroyspencer.com/2014/02/95-of-climate-models-agree-the-observations-must-be-wrong/
The climate models have never demonstrated any predictive skill.
And the models aren’t getting better. Even when they start the model run in 2006, the observed temperatures consistently track at or below the low end 5-95% range. Observed temperatures only approach the model mean (P50) in 2006, 2015 and 2016.
When we drill wells, we run probability distributions to estimate the oil and gas reserves we will add if the well is successful. The model inputs consist of a range of estimates of reservoir thickness, area and petrophysical characteristics. The model output consists of a probability distribution from P10 to P90.
P10 = Maximum Case. There is a 10% probability that the well will produce at least this much oil and/or gas.
P50 = Mean Case. There is a 50% probability that the well will produce at least this much oil and/or gas. Probable reserves are >P50.
P90 = Minimum Case. There is a 90% probability that the well will produce at least this much oil and/or gas. Proved reserves are P90.
Over time, a drilling program should track near P50. If your drilling results track close to P10 or P90, your model input is seriously flawed.
If the CMIP5 model ensemble had predictive skill, the observations should track around P50, half the runs should predict more warming and half less than is actually observed. During the predictive run of the model, HadCRUT4.5 has not *tracked* anywhere near P50…
Figure 23. Figure 21 zoomed in on model run period with probability distributions annotated.
I “eyeballed” the instrumental observations to estimate a probability distribution of predictive run of the model.
Prediction Run Approximate Distribution
2006 P60 (60% of the models predicted a warmer temperature)
2007 P75
2008 P95
2009 P80
2010 P70
2011-2013 >P95
2014 P90
2015-2016 P55
Note that during the 1998-99 El Niño, the observations spiked above P05 (less than 5% of the models predicted this). During the 2015-16 El Niño, HadCRUT only spiked to P55. El Niño events are not P50 conditions. Strong El Niño and La Niña events should spike toward the P05 and P95 boundaries.
The temperature observations are clearly tracking much closer to strong mitigation scenarios rather than RCP 8.5, the bogus “business as usual” scenario.
The red hachured trapezoid indicates that HadCRUT4.5 will continue to track between less than P100 and P50. This is indicative of a miserable failure of the models and a pretty good clue that the models need be adjusted downward.
In any other field of science CAGW would be a long-discarded falsified hypothesis.
“Let’s hold them accountable” for fraudulently clinging to high climate sensitivities, when all of the recent observation-based evidence indicates that it is quite low.
Since 2011, at lleast 14 studies published in the peer-reviewed scientific literature provide strong evidence that the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS)—how much the earth’s average surface temperature will rise under a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration—lies near the low end of the IPCC estimates (Figure 5). This recent research includes investigations of the earth’s thermal response to changes in climate forcings that have taken place over the past century, millennium, and over glacial periods.
Figure 5. Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) estimates from new research beginning in 2011 (colored), compared with the assessed range given in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and the collection of climate models used in the IPCC AR5. The “likely” (greater than a 66% likelihood of occurrence) range in the IPCC Assessment is indicated by the gray bar. The arrows indicate the 5 to 95 percent confidence bounds for each estimate along with the best estimate (median of each probability density function; or the mean of multiple estimates; colored vertical line). Ring et al. (2012) present four estimates of the climate sensitivity and the red box encompasses those estimates. The right-hand side of the IPCC AR5 range is actually the 90% upper bound (the IPCC does not actually state the value for the upper 95 percent confidence bound of their estimate). Spencer and Braswell (2013) produce a single ECS value best-matched to ocean heat content observations and internal radiative forcing. https://judithcurry.com/2015/12/17/climate-models-versus-climate-reality/
Several of these research findings were published subsequent to the 2013 release of the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), and thus were not included in that Assessment. Others were considered in the IPCC AR5, and still others were ignored. And while the IPCC AR5 did reflect some influence on these new low ECS estimates—by expanding its “likely” range of ECS estimates downward to include 1.5°C (the low end was 2.0°C in the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report) and omitting a “best estimate” value (which had previously been given as 3.0°C in the 2007 report)—it still doggedly held on to its high end “likely” estimate of 4.5°C. This was a disservice to the latest science, but was a necessary step to preserve the IPCC’s reliance on climate projections made by models with an ECS averaging 3.2°C and ranging from 2.1°C to 4.7°C—the same models recently evaluated by Christy and in our AGU presentation. Had the IPCC fully embraced an ECS near 2.0°C—that which the recent literature suggests—it would have had to throw out much of the rest of the report.
Let’s hold them accountable for fraudulently describing RCP 8.5 as a “business as usual” scenario
(1) AN INTRODUCTION TO SCENARIOS ABOUT OUR FUTURE
In AR5 four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) describe scenarios for future emissions, concentrations, and land-use, ending with radiative forcing levels of 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 W/m2 by 2100. Strong mitigation policies result in a low forcing level (RCP2.6). Two medium stabilization scenarios lead to intermediate outcomes: (RCP4.5, RCP6.0).
RCP8.5 gets the most attention. It assumes the fastest population growth (a doubling of Earth’s population to 12 billion), the lowest rate of technology development, slow GDP growth, a massive increase in world poverty, plus high energy use and emissions. For more about the RCPs see “The representative concentration pathways: an overview” by Detlef P. van Vuuren et al, Climatic Change, Nov 2011.
RCP8.5 assumes a nightmarish world even before climate impacts, resulting from substantial changes to long-standing trends. It provides AR5 with an essential worst case scenario necessary for conservative planning.
Unfortunately scientists often inaccurately describe RCP8.5 as the baseline scenario — a future without policy action: “a relatively conservative business as usual case with low income, high population and high energy demand due to only modest improvements in energy intensity” from “RCP 8.5: A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions” by Keywan Riahi et al in Climate Change, November 2011, This is a material misrepresentation of RCP8.5. Scientists then use RCP8.5 to construct horrific visions of the future. They seldom mention its unlikely assumptions.
Let’s hold them accountable for their willful disregard of economics
President Trump’s “secret weapon” is the discount rate…
How Climate Rules Might Fade Away
Obama used an arcane number to craft his regulations. Trump could use it to undo them.
by Matthew Philips , Mark Drajem , and Jennifer A Dlouhy
December 15, 2016, 3:30 AM CST
In February 2009, a month after Barack Obama took office, two academics sat across from each other in the White House mess hall. Over a club sandwich, Michael Greenstone, a White House economist, and Cass Sunstein, Obama’s top regulatory officer, decided that the executive branch needed to figure out how to estimate the economic damage from climate change. With the recession in full swing, they were rightly skeptical about the chances that Congress would pass a nationwide cap-and-trade bill. Greenstone and Sunstein knew they needed a Plan B: a way to regulate carbon emissions without going through Congress.
Over the next year, a team of economists, scientists, and lawyers from across the federal government convened to come up with a dollar amount for the economic cost of carbon emissions. Whatever value they hit upon would be used to determine the scope of regulations aimed at reducing the damage from climate change. The bigger the estimate, the more costly the rules meant to address it could be. After a year of modeling different scenarios, the team came up with a central estimate of $21 per metric ton, which is to say that by their calculations, every ton of carbon emitted into the atmosphere imposed $21 of economic cost. It has since been raised to around $40 a ton.
This calculation, known as the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC), serves as the linchpin for much of the climate-related rules imposed by the White House over the past eight years. From capping the carbon emissions of power plants to cutting down on the amount of electricity used by the digital clock on a microwave, the SCC has given the Obama administration the legal justification to argue that the benefits these rules provide to society outweigh the costs they impose on industry.
It turns out that the same calculation used to justify so much of Obama’s climate agenda could be used by President-elect Donald Trump to undo a significant portion of it. As Trump nominates people who favor fossil fuels and oppose climate regulation to top positions in his cabinet, including Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt to head the Environmental Protection Agency and former Texas Governor Rick Perry to lead the Department of Energy, it seems clear that one of his primary objectives will be to dismantle much of Obama’s climate and clean energy legacy. He already appears to be focusing on the SCC.
[…]
The SCC models rely on a “discount rate” to state the harm from global warming in today’s dollars. The higher the discount rate, the lower the estimate of harm. That’s because the costs incurred by burning carbon lie mostly in the distant future, while the benefits (heat, electricity, etc.) are enjoyed today. A high discount rate shrinks the estimates of future costs but doesn’t affect present-day benefits. The team put together by Greenstone and Sunstein used a discount rate of 3 percent to come up with its central estimate of $21 a ton for damage inflicted by carbon. But changing that discount just slightly produces big swings in the overall cost of carbon, turning a number that’s pushing broad changes in everything from appliances to coal leasing decisions into one that would have little or no impact on policy.
According to a 2013 government update on the SCC, by applying a discount rate of 5 percent, the cost of carbon in 2020 comes out to $12 a ton; using a 2.5 percent rate, it’s $65. A 7 percent discount rate, which has been used by the EPA for other regulatory analysis, could actually lead to a negative carbon cost, which would seem to imply that carbon emissions are beneficial. “Once you start to dig into how the numbers are constructed, I cannot fathom how anyone could think it has any basis in reality,” says Daniel Simmons, vice president for policy at the American Energy Alliance and a member of the Trump transition team focusing on the Energy Department. “Depending on what the discount rate is, you go from a large number to a negative number, with some very reasonable assumptions.”
A 7 percent discount rate, which has been used by the EPA for other regulatory analysis, could actually lead to a negative carbon cost, which would seem to imply that carbon emissions are beneficial.
One of the most common ways of estimating the value of oil and gas revenue and reserves is called “PV10.”
PV10 is the current value of approximated oil and gas revenues in the future, minus anticipated expenses, discounted using a yearly discount rate of 10%. Used primarily in reference to the energy industry, PV10 is helpful in estimating the present value of a corporation’s proven oil and gas reserves.
We generally use a 10% discount rate when deciding how to allocate current capital.
A 3% discount rate, as used in the SCC calculation, essentially assumes that the time-value of money is insignificant. I suppose that since it’s OPM (other people’s money), the government doesn’t view the time-value of money as a particularly relevant thing.
Let’s hold them accountable for the billions of taxpayer dollars wasted on greenschist
Why Do Federal Subsidies Make Renewable Energy So Costly?
James Conca , CONTRIBUTOR
I write about nuclear, energy and the environment
On a total dollar basis, wind has received the greatest amount of federal subsidies. Solar is second. Wind and solar together get more than all other energy sources combined.
However, based on production (subsidies per kWh of electricity produced), solar energy, has gotten over ten times the subsidies of all other forms of energy sources combined, including wind (see figure).
Figure Caption: Subsidies for various energy sources normalized to total energy produced by each source for the years 2010, 2013, 2016 and projected for 2019. Data Source: University of Texas
According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the University of Texas, from 2010 through 2013, federal renewable energy subsidies increased by 54%, from $8.6 billion to $13.2 billion, despite the fact that total federal energy subsidies declined by 23%, from $38 billion to $29 billion.
If the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions truly is a primary objective, the only energys source which merits subsidization is nuclear power:
Nuclear power absolutely is the leader of the pack at reducing so-called “greenhouse” gas emissions:
Figure 1. Nuclear and gas kick @$$, wind breaks even and solar is a loser. http://www.realclearenergy.org/charticles/2014/08/01/solar_and_wind_more_expensive_than_realized_107939.html
If reducing greenhouse gas emissions is important, nuclear power is the obvious answer. If reducing greenhouse gas emissions at a reasonable cost is important, natural gas is the obvious answer. If treading water is important, wind is the obvious answer. If failure is important, solar is the obvious answer. So, Mr. Dominguez is generally correct.
“The renewables industry has been playing by competitive market rules that have helped to produce good prices,” Amy Francetic, an Invenergy senior vice president, said in an interview. “This is picking and winners and losers in a way that’s troubling.”
Really? Ms. Francetic, *government* always picks “winners and losers in a way that’s troubling.”
As far as the renewables industry “playing by competitive market rules that have helped to produce good prices”…
Solar and wind power are insignificant sources of energy.
Figure 3a. U.S. Energy production by source 2010 & 2013 (trillion Btu), U.S. Energy Information Administration.(Corrected for error in Geothermal Btu shortly after publication.)Figure 3b. U.S. primary energy production 1981-2015 (million tonnes of oil equivalent), BP 2016 Statistical Review of World Energy.
Solar and wind power receive massive Federal subsidies.
Figure 4. Federal subsidies by energy source 2010 and 2013 (million 2013 US dollars), U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The solar and wind subsidies are truly massive in $/Btu.
Figure 5. Subsidies per unit of energy by source ($/mmBtu), U.S. Energy Information Administration. (Corrected for error in Geothermal Btu shortly after publication.)
So… By all means…
LET’S HOLD THEM ACCOUNTABLE!!!
Addendum (6/21/2017 7:06 AM CDT)
This just hit my inbox:
We hope you saw our note last week. This is a critical time for AAAS and the scientific community as a whole — we haven’t seen threats to science of this magnitude in decades.
We need your help to protect and advance rigorous inquiry that benefits everyone.
*Offer valid from May 31, 2017 to June 30, 2017, for new individual members only. There is a limit of one water bottle per membership order. Please allow up to four weeks for domestic delivery and up to five weeks for international delivery. The AAAS water bottle is provided as is without any guarantees or warranty and cannot be exchanged or returned. In association with the product, AAAS makes no warranties of any kind, either express or implied, including but not limited to warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose.
Yes, I did see your not. I replied to it here. Budget cuts to the EPA, NOAA and the rest of the alphabet soup are not “threats to science.”
AAPG, SEG, SEPM, SPE, etc. There are “honest scientific associations or bodies left in the USA.” The easiest way to identify “honest scientific associations”… They are largely uninvolved in the Gorebal Warming fraud and their members generally don’t depend on government or academic funding.
TA
June 20, 2017 8:49 am
From the article: “If the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions truly is a primary objective, the only energy source which merits subsidization is nuclear power”
That is correct and nuclear is doable right now. The only problem is the radioactive waste produced, but there are viable solutions to handling this problem already available. The only thing lacking is the political will.
Great article, David. You gave all the reasons why the AAAS should be held accountable for not taking into account all the other evidence available that casts doubt on the CAGW narrative.
Radioactive waste could easily be safely disposed of. The only obstacles are politicians and NIMBY’ism. Even the most high-level and toxic waste can be safely disposed of geologically…
Petroleum drilling costs have decreased to the point where boreholes are now routinely drilled to multi-kilometer depths. Research boreholes in Russia and Germany have been drilled to 8-12 km. The drilling costs for 950 deep boreholes to dispose of the entire 109,300 MTHM inventory, assuming a cost of $20 million per borehole (see Section 3.1), would be ~ $19 billion. Very rough estimates of other costs are $10 billion for associated site characterization, performance assessment analysis, and license application, $20 billion for disposal operations, monitoring, and decommissioning, $12 billion for ancillary program activities, and $10 billion for transportation, resulting in a total life-cycle cost for a hypothetical deep borehole disposal program of $71 billion (in 2007 dollars). Sandia National Laboratories
The entire inventory of high-level radioactive waste produced by US nuclear power plants over the last 50+ years could be safely disposed of for ~$70 billion.
From 1965 through 2011, nuclear power plants generated 22,219.57 TWh of electricity (22.2 TRILLON kWh). $71 billion works out to 0.3¢/kWh… One-third of one penny per kilowatt-hour.
Once the inventory is disposed of, the annual cost of drilling and maintaining disposal wells would amount to about 0.3¢/kWh… And that cost would decline over time as technological advances deflate the real cost of drilling.
Run those numbers against the USD 2 trillion global subsidies for solar and wind of the past 20 years – for a 1% contribution to global energy production- and the absurdity and obscenity of renewables becomes even more salient.
“The entire inventory of high-level radioactive waste produced by US nuclear power plants over the last 50+ years could be safely disposed of for ~$70 billion.”
The Yucca Mountain nuclear storage facility in Nevada was supposed to cost an estimated $90 billion (2008), so your proposal beats the Yucca facility costs, and your proposal eliminates the need to guard the storage facility for hundreds or more years.
I think you have a good idea there, David.
My only problem with using deep wells to dispose of nuclear waste is that it makes it very hard to recover that material when ever we finally come to our senses.
Nuclear waste could be “classified” and dumped in an ocean trench. But the UN passed a law forbidding any dumping (probably not realizing that glassification would eliminate all risk)>
Excellent ‘take down’, Mr. Middleton! How shall we hold these AAAS’s accountable?
Let Me Count The Ways!
Walter Sobchak
June 20, 2017 10:58 am
The American Association for the Advancement of Science reveals its true agenda: more Benjamins for us. To them science is welfare for white people, and they want theirs.
Let’s hold them accountable for the misdirection of scarse resources on a truly monumental scale.
H. D. Hoese
June 20, 2017 11:54 am
I have posted announcements before from Sigma Xi (Scientific Honor Society that publishes American Scientist). They have not yet assumed the activist posture of AAAS, or offered bottles, but some of their more cautious language is similar. American Scientist has published “politically incorrect” articles, including EPA problems, but they may need to be saved from the “save us” paradigm which has its own dangers. This just came from the outgoing Interim Executive Director.
“Finally, a great wave of scientific awareness has arisen. Primed by the March for Science, more of us recognize that this country’s research investment traditions are at peril, and people everywhere are feeling the urge to revive interest and participation in all things science. Sigma Xi is a beacon of clarity for the research enterprise…the underpinning for the human need to produce innovation and improve the common lot.”
I received the same e-mail a few days ago. My response was short, but rushed. I’m certain someone can word it better to have handy the next time they send it out.
“I cannot overstate this: Your rejection of the scientific method in favor of hyperbole and flat out lies is truly disgusting.
Fewer than three percent of published papers with an opinion on the cause of warming claim it is mostly human (Category 1 for attribution in Cook et. al. 2013). The reality is that the Cook study found more papers that reject AGW than say humans are the primary cause (78 to 64). The definition of the consensus used in studies that showed 97-99% agreement is merely that humans add to natural variation (Cook 2013, Oreskes, Doran & Zimmermann, Powell).
Funding cuts may threaten the jobs of a few of your members, but blindly accepting political slogans as fact threatens the core definition of science.
When will your organization start holding itself accountable to put science ahead of money?”
Thanks David, a valuable resource recording many of the crimes. I very much appreciate the section on RCP 8.5. I now have this as a half-page handout in my “need to carry” stuff. I have to battle with RCP 8.5 on an almost daily basis.
skorrent1
June 20, 2017 5:36 pm
I think Kip Hansen could write a whole post on the Fruit Salad that is “the average of 102 GCM runs”. Can anyone ascribe any utility to that numerical calculation?
The Paris Climate Accord is a “planet-saving agreement”, eh ?
I just find that funny.
It is a fantasy agreement — an agreement for the sake of international agreement on an ideal that has no physical reality. It’s just an exercise by many different nations to agree on something. Okay, agreement by multiple nations is great. But why not agree that fried meat tastes good? Or that sunny days are happy days?
Why create some excuse to spend so much money and time accomplishing so very little? At least spending money on agreeing that sunny days are happy days would be more uplifting … and CHEAPER.
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy
June 20, 2017 9:03 pm
In the few figures at the start of the article the trend in the observed data is not global warming caused by CO2. As per IPCC more than half is due to anthropogenic greenhouse effect which includes the volcanic impact and less than half is due to non-greenhouse effect. Model predictions were for global warming.
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy
Steve (Paris)
June 21, 2017 2:58 am
Test
Dixon
June 21, 2017 6:54 am
Bravo for this – a great succinct review of why those advocating drastic action are so wrong. I will be sending the link to many long suffering folk who I suspect still doubt that I’m right and that they have been so completely hoodwinked. I’d missed Stockwell’s graph – that’s a gem.
A “force for science water bottle” … great, more plastic ! Send us money in the name of science so that we can up the demand for plastic sippie bottles to complement already-large carbon-footprint lifestyles. The more new members, the more plastic bottles we can get into the world.
Is this really a good marketing plan?
PrivateCitizen
June 21, 2017 11:13 am
of only two other nations to reject this planet-saving agreement. << HAHAHAHAHS "Planet-saving"??? and why the hyphen?
Even though only an idiot could think that the Paris climate farce could save the planet… Actually, only an idiot could think that the planet is in need of saving or that we could save it… The use of the hyphen was grammatically correct.
Hyphens
Use a hyphen to connect two or more words functioning TOGETHER as an adjective before a noun.
Notice the difference between the use of adjectives in these two sentences.
Ex: He enjoyed the hot apple pie. (Both adjectives describe the pie; it’s hot and made of apples.)
It was a well-written essay. (It’s not a well essay and a written essay; the two words must work together to describe the essay.)
Outstanding position paper. My observation is that most if not all national organizations of scientists and engineers inexplicably fall into the AAAS camp on the issue of climate change. How could this happen? The preeminent problem for rational scientists is how to get Middleton’s message and others like it out to the people in spite of the barriers created by entrenched bureaucrats and the mass media. Niche websites simply cannot get the job done. Articles like this one, books, testimony to Congress, presentations, etc., get filed on a shelf and gather dust. A light needs to shine on black hole of the fourth estate.
Maybe “decades” was too generous. Let’s talk centuries, say, Galileo’s persecution in the1600s.
pham nuwen
June 26, 2017 3:26 am
Thank you Guys for your Comments.
Your Names will be stored in a Database
for the Use in the coming Trials
against Climate Change Deniers.. [If you think threats advance your cause you are deluded. You sound like a foolish teenager. . . mod]
They should also be held accountable for all the Media “Hottest”, “Wildest”, “Super”, “Mega”, scare stories of the last 20 years.
What AAAS actually is saying:
It should be legal to commit fraud and illegal to fight it …
Well said.
Tnx!
Sasjal this is exactly what they are saying. Sad, are there any honest scientific associations or bodies left in the USA?
That question could be used for most countries. I don’t think it would change as long as politicians are above the law …
AAPG, SEG, SEPM, SPE, etc. There are “honest scientific associations or bodies left in the USA.” The easiest way to identify “honest scientific associations”… They are largely uninvolved in the Gorebal Warming fraud and their members generally don’t depend on government or academic funding.
From the article: “If the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions truly is a primary objective, the only energy source which merits subsidization is nuclear power”
That is correct and nuclear is doable right now. The only problem is the radioactive waste produced, but there are viable solutions to handling this problem already available. The only thing lacking is the political will.
Great article, David. You gave all the reasons why the AAAS should be held accountable for not taking into account all the other evidence available that casts doubt on the CAGW narrative.
Radioactive waste could easily be safely disposed of. The only obstacles are politicians and NIMBY’ism. Even the most high-level and toxic waste can be safely disposed of geologically…
The entire inventory of high-level radioactive waste produced by US nuclear power plants over the last 50+ years could be safely disposed of for ~$70 billion.
From 1965 through 2011, nuclear power plants generated 22,219.57 TWh of electricity (22.2 TRILLON kWh). $71 billion works out to 0.3¢/kWh… One-third of one penny per kilowatt-hour.
Once the inventory is disposed of, the annual cost of drilling and maintaining disposal wells would amount to about 0.3¢/kWh… And that cost would decline over time as technological advances deflate the real cost of drilling.
Run those numbers against the USD 2 trillion global subsidies for solar and wind of the past 20 years – for a 1% contribution to global energy production- and the absurdity and obscenity of renewables becomes even more salient.
David,
I still like the idea of taking those spent rod bundles & cobalt needles and
shooting them into the sun.
“The entire inventory of high-level radioactive waste produced by US nuclear power plants over the last 50+ years could be safely disposed of for ~$70 billion.”
The Yucca Mountain nuclear storage facility in Nevada was supposed to cost an estimated $90 billion (2008), so your proposal beats the Yucca facility costs, and your proposal eliminates the need to guard the storage facility for hundreds or more years.
I think you have a good idea there, David.
My numbers are very “back of the envelope;” but the Sandia Labs report is fairly detailed.
My only problem with using deep wells to dispose of nuclear waste is that it makes it very hard to recover that material when ever we finally come to our senses.
It makes it pretty well impossible to recover it… That’s the point of disposal.
Nuclear waste could be “classified” and dumped in an ocean trench. But the UN passed a law forbidding any dumping (probably not realizing that glassification would eliminate all risk)>
“classified,” not “classified.” Damn autocorrect.
Excellent ‘take down’, Mr. Middleton!
How shall we hold these AAAS’s accountable?
Let Me Count The Ways!
The American Association for the Advancement of Science reveals its true agenda: more Benjamins for us. To them science is welfare for white people, and they want theirs.
Haha. Brilliant.
Let’s hold them accountable for the misdirection of scarse resources on a truly monumental scale.
I have posted announcements before from Sigma Xi (Scientific Honor Society that publishes American Scientist). They have not yet assumed the activist posture of AAAS, or offered bottles, but some of their more cautious language is similar. American Scientist has published “politically incorrect” articles, including EPA problems, but they may need to be saved from the “save us” paradigm which has its own dangers. This just came from the outgoing Interim Executive Director.
“Finally, a great wave of scientific awareness has arisen. Primed by the March for Science, more of us recognize that this country’s research investment traditions are at peril, and people everywhere are feeling the urge to revive interest and participation in all things science. Sigma Xi is a beacon of clarity for the research enterprise…the underpinning for the human need to produce innovation and improve the common lot.”
I received the same e-mail a few days ago. My response was short, but rushed. I’m certain someone can word it better to have handy the next time they send it out.
“I cannot overstate this: Your rejection of the scientific method in favor of hyperbole and flat out lies is truly disgusting.
Fewer than three percent of published papers with an opinion on the cause of warming claim it is mostly human (Category 1 for attribution in Cook et. al. 2013). The reality is that the Cook study found more papers that reject AGW than say humans are the primary cause (78 to 64). The definition of the consensus used in studies that showed 97-99% agreement is merely that humans add to natural variation (Cook 2013, Oreskes, Doran & Zimmermann, Powell).
Funding cuts may threaten the jobs of a few of your members, but blindly accepting political slogans as fact threatens the core definition of science.
When will your organization start holding itself accountable to put science ahead of money?”
Thanks David, a valuable resource recording many of the crimes. I very much appreciate the section on RCP 8.5. I now have this as a half-page handout in my “need to carry” stuff. I have to battle with RCP 8.5 on an almost daily basis.
I think Kip Hansen could write a whole post on the Fruit Salad that is “the average of 102 GCM runs”. Can anyone ascribe any utility to that numerical calculation?
The Paris Climate Accord is a “planet-saving agreement”, eh ?
I just find that funny.
It is a fantasy agreement — an agreement for the sake of international agreement on an ideal that has no physical reality. It’s just an exercise by many different nations to agree on something. Okay, agreement by multiple nations is great. But why not agree that fried meat tastes good? Or that sunny days are happy days?
Why create some excuse to spend so much money and time accomplishing so very little? At least spending money on agreeing that sunny days are happy days would be more uplifting … and CHEAPER.
In the few figures at the start of the article the trend in the observed data is not global warming caused by CO2. As per IPCC more than half is due to anthropogenic greenhouse effect which includes the volcanic impact and less than half is due to non-greenhouse effect. Model predictions were for global warming.
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy
Test
Bravo for this – a great succinct review of why those advocating drastic action are so wrong. I will be sending the link to many long suffering folk who I suspect still doubt that I’m right and that they have been so completely hoodwinked. I’d missed Stockwell’s graph – that’s a gem.
A “force for science water bottle” … great, more plastic !
Send us money in the name of science so that we can up the demand for plastic sippie bottles to complement already-large carbon-footprint lifestyles. The more new members, the more plastic bottles we can get into the world.
Is this really a good marketing plan?
of only two other nations to reject this planet-saving agreement. << HAHAHAHAHS "Planet-saving"??? and why the hyphen?
Even though only an idiot could think that the Paris climate farce could save the planet… Actually, only an idiot could think that the planet is in need of saving or that we could save it… The use of the hyphen was grammatically correct.
http://www.lycoming.edu/academicResourceCenter/punct.aspx
Time to break out George Carlin…
Outstanding position paper. My observation is that most if not all national organizations of scientists and engineers inexplicably fall into the AAAS camp on the issue of climate change. How could this happen? The preeminent problem for rational scientists is how to get Middleton’s message and others like it out to the people in spite of the barriers created by entrenched bureaucrats and the mass media. Niche websites simply cannot get the job done. Articles like this one, books, testimony to Congress, presentations, etc., get filed on a shelf and gather dust. A light needs to shine on black hole of the fourth estate.
Don’t forget the AAPG’s position statement on climate change…
http://www.aapg.org/about/aapg/offices/policy/statements/details/articleid/12111/climate-change
The only scientific society with a realistic position statement on climate change is also ignored.
…we haven’t seen threats to science of this magnitude in decades.
In decades? Really? In which recent decade was science so threatened?
I thought it was pretty-well threatened from 2009-2016.
Maybe “decades” was too generous. Let’s talk centuries, say, Galileo’s persecution in the1600s.
Thank you Guys for your Comments.
Your Names will be stored in a Database
for the Use in the coming Trials
against Climate Change Deniers..
[If you think threats advance your cause you are deluded. You sound like a foolish teenager. . . mod]