From the AMERICAN MUSEUM OF NATURAL HISTORY and the “no ice ages here” department.
Fossil beetles suggest that LA climate has been relatively stable for 50,000 years
New radiocarbon dating of La Brea Tar Pits beetles indicates that Southern California’s Paleoclimate was very similar to today
Research based on more than 180 fossil insects preserved in the La Brea Tar Pits of Los Angeles indicate that the climate in what is now southern California has been relatively stable over the past 50,000 years.
The La Brea Tar Pits, which form one of the world’s richest Ice Age fossil sites, is famous for specimens of saber-toothed cats, mammoths, and giant sloths, but their insect collection is even larger and offers a relatively untapped treasure trove of information. The new study, published today in the journal Quaternary Science Reviews, is based on an analysis of seven species of beetles and offers the most robust environmental analysis for southern California to date.
“Despite La Brea’s significance as one of North America’s premier Late Pleistocene fossil localities, there remain large gaps in our understanding of its ecological history,” said lead author Anna Holden, a graduate student at the American Museum of Natural History’s Richard Gilder Graduate School and a research associate at the La Brea Tar Pits and Museum. “Recent advances are now allowing us to reconstruct the region’s paleoenvironment by analyzing a vast and previously under-studied collection from the tar pits: insects.”
The new study focuses on ground beetles and darkling beetles, which are still present in and around the Los Angeles Basin today. Insects adapt to highly specific environmental conditions, with most capable of migrating when they or their habitats get too hot, too cold, too wet, or too dry. This is especially true for ground and darkling beetles, which are restricted to well-known habitats and climate ranges.
The researchers used radiocarbon dating to estimate the ages of the beetle fossils and discovered they could be grouped into three semi-continuous ranges: 28,000-50,000 years old, 7,500-16,000 years old, and 4,000 years old. Because the beetles stayed put for such a sustained period of time, evidently content with their environmental conditions, the study suggests that pre-historic Los Angeles was warmer and drier than previously inferred–very similar to today’s climate. In addition, insects that thrive in cooler environments, such as forested and canopied habitats, and are just as likely as the beetles to be preserved in the tar pits, have not been discovered at La Brea.
“With the exception of the peak of the last glaciers during the late Ice Age about 24,000 years ago, our data show that these highly responsive and mobile beetles were staples in Los Angeles for at least the last 50,000 years, suggesting that the climate in the area has been surprisingly similar.” Holden said. “We hope that insects will be used as climate proxies for future studies, in combination with other methods, to give us a complete picture of the paleoenvironment of Earth.”
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Other authors on this study include John Southon, University of California-Irvine; Kipling Will, University of California-Berkeley; Matthew Kirby, California State University; Rolf Aalbu, California Academy of Sciences; and Molly Markey, AIR Worldwide.
Quaternary Science Reviews paper: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379117301671
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There are 15,000 individual different sub-species of the darkling beetle.
This is their range today. Seems like +/-15C works fine for these guys.
https://www.zoo.org/view.image?Id=2075
There are 40,000 individual different sub-species of the ground beetle.
And given that number, they are everywhere on the planet so any temperature works.
So, one needs some DNA tests on these Tar pit beetles and then another set covering 55,000 different beetles and then matching up the DNA to their current range .
I’m guessing LA was about 2.0C cooler at the height of the last ice age. You know, pick an area in California which is 2.0C colder than LA today an it is probably just 100 miles away.
Bill,
I haven’t read the paper, so dunno if they took species and subspecies into account. But yes, then and now, SoCal harbored lots of microclimates.
Being farther from the sea alone could have had an effect, let alone different ocean circulation and rainfall patterns.
95 out of 100 climate science studies are like this.
They only care about the spin that can be put on it to support the narrative so that funding continues on and they get invited to all the great global warming parties.
The abstract specifically uses the generic name for the species taxonomy which has the different number of actual species I quoted above.
You see this pattern every time you dig into the base data in any climate science study. There are two types. 95 times out of 100, they only care about the spin/news release they can put out. But 5 times out 100, the scientists are trying hard to get their base data out there (lots of money was spent in gathering it) but they don’t want the climate science illuminati to come after them so there is the spin again to go along with the base data collected.
I’ve been in this game for a long time now and I really dig deep into these studies and go through the data and try to piece together what is really being shown. Beetles lived in LA for the past 50,000 years is the take away here. I’m pretty sure that has been the case for about 5 million years, noting the LA basin was formed as the Pacific plate slide past the North American plate not that long ago, within the last 5 million years.
WR: Bill Illis, my compliments for the quality of your information. Every time when I spot your name I read carefully what you have written.
It is good that on a site like this we can find a ‘second type of peer review’. By people like you.
(in reaction to:
Bill Illis May 24, 2017 at 7:59 pm
“The abstract specifically uses the generic name for the species taxonomy which has the different number of actual species I quoted above.
You see this pattern every time you dig into the base data in any climate science study. There are two types. 95 times out of 100, they only care about the spin/news release they can put out. But 5 times out 100, the scientists are trying hard to get their base data out there (lots of money was spent in gathering it) but they don’t want the climate science illuminati to come after them so there is the spin again to go along with the base data collected.
I’ve been in this game for a long time now and I really dig deep into these studies and go through the data and try to piece together what is really being shown.”)
Not sub-species. Species.. What you are doing is equal to using a map of the combined range of all Ursidae to argue that Polar Bears are native to India and Florida.
“With the exception of the peak of the last glaciers during the late Ice Age about 24,000 years ago, our data show that these highly responsive and mobile beetles were staples in Los Angeles for at least the last 50,000 years, suggesting that the climate in the area has been surprisingly similar.”
____________________
one for IPCC: business as usual.
Yes, same climate – except for the times when it wasn’t.
How did LA climate stay stable during the events that led to the Missoula Floods?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missoula_Floods
Another question would be where did the heat come from to melt the Laurentide Ice Sheet?
rc.carleton.edu/vignettes/collection/58451.html
Is there anything wrong with these conclusion by Cynthia Cudaback? She believes that melting Antarctica ‘s ice would raise ocean levels by 80 metres. http://cynthiacudaback.org/
Energy Calculations Involving Very Large Numbers
Useful Facts
• One m3 of ice weighs 1000,000 g; one km3 of ice weighs 1015 g.
• 1015 = 1 followed by 15 zeros = 1,000,000,000,000,000 = 1 quadrillion
• When you’re multiplying large numbers together in scientific notation, you just add up the exponents.
• Latent heat of melting ice = 80 cal/g, heat capacity of water = 1 cal/g/degree.
• The United States uses about 100 Quadrillion BTU’s of energy each year, and one BTU = 252 calories.
Questions:
1. What is the mass of the Arctic ice cap in grams?
2. What is the mass of the Antarctic ice cap in grams?
3. Multiply the area of the global ocean by 0.001 km to calculate the volume of the top layer of the ocean.
4. What is the mass of the top layer of the ocean in grams?
5. How much energy will it take to melt the Arctic ice cap?
6. How much energy will it take to melt the Antarctic ice cap?
7. How much energy will it take to raise the temperature of the ocean by 1 degree?
8. In what order will these changes occur?
9. How much energy does the US use in 100 years?
10. Is that greater or less than the amount of energy you calculated above?
1) Mass of Arctic Ice, in grams = 20,000 km3 x 1015 g / km3 = 20 x 1018 g
2) Mass of Antarctic Ice, in grams = 30,000,000 km3 x 1015 g / km3 = 30 x 1021 g
3) Volume of Ocean Surface Layer = 360,000,000 km2 x 0.001 km = 360,000 km3
4) Mass of Ocean Surface Layer, in grams = 360,000 km3 x 1015 g / km3 = 360 x 1018 g
5) Energy to melt Arctic Ice = 20 x 1018 g x 80 cal/g = 1600 x 1018 cal = 1.6 x 1021 cal
6) Energy to melt Antarctic ice = 30 x 1021 g x 80 cal/g = 2400 x 1021 cal = 2.4 x 1024 cal
7) Energy to warm the surface ocean = 360 x 1018 g x 1 cal/g/oC x 1 oC = 360 x 1018 cal
8) Order of events: Ocean warming, then Arctic melting, then Antarctic melting
9) US energy use = 100 year x 100 x 1015 BTU/year x 252 cal/BTU = 2.5 x 1021 cal
10) US energy use is similar to energy needed to melt the Arctic ice sheet
http://cynthiacudaback.org/
[??? .mod]
80 meters is too high, its more like 60 meters. There are some errors here. The density of glacier ice is only about 0.91 and a lot of the water is needed to “fill out the hole” where the melted ice was, if the ground under the glacier was below sea level.
Also how much energy is needed to melt the ice is inconsequential. It’s rather how much energy is needed to change the climate to a point where the Antarctic Ice Sheet melts. And whether this is even theoretically possible with the continents in their curren position.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-glacial_rebound
I tracked down the darkling beetle – Coleoptera: Carabidae, Tenebrionidae – that was the basis of these claims in the paper.
The first google search link I opened said it was discussing the mid-Columbian basin. I thought I knew where that was – up in British Columbia. BRITISH COLUMBIA!!???
The range of these beetles includes the mid-Columbian basin?
You tell me – how the HELL does the mid-Columbian basin BY ANY STRETCH have a similar climate to Los Angeles?
The second source I turned up was talking about them in KASHMIR – IN THE BLOODY HIMALAYAS at 3400 meters above sea level.
Again – what climate commonalities are there between LA and Kashmir?
Not much rainfall – but Kashmir gets a lot of snow melt.
So, basically the claim that the climate hasn’t changed is built on NOTHING. In fact, it is more likely that LA’s climate was COOLER, not “warmer”.
I give this paper an F- based on not researching where ELSE the beetle lives NOW.
Steve,
The study area was the Los Angeles Basin. For the cold interval, the beetle assemblage resembled that of the Columbia Basin.
Again, the beetles belong to an enormously speciose family, but only 182 of its species, out of 20,000, were found in the study.
Whoops. http://serc.carleton.edu/vignettes/collection/58451.html
There does not appear to be any doubt that the average temperature of any large body of water is influenced by the elevation (above sea level) of that body of water. By way of example: The dead sea (Latitude 31N & elevation -400m below sea level ) is on average a great deal hotter than Lake Victoria (Latitude 1S & elevation + 1135m above sea level). Google Wikipedia for information re annual temperature averages. Elevation & not latitude appears to be the major influencing factor. Likewise the maximum temperature (+/- 32C) of the oceans at the equator would be influenced by the elevation (read air pressure) at sea level at the time of the glacial maximum when the MSL is reported to have been at least 400ft lower than at present . This raised air pressure at sea level would be conducive to higher maximum sea water temperatures than those recorded at the equator at present and this rise in SW temperature may have contributed to the “darkling beetle” friendly climate in sub-tropical and equatorial regions.
It is appreciated that the absolute rise in air pressure at sea level would be negatively offset by the fact that the total volume of air in the atmosphere would be more or less a constant. It is possible that these postulated elevated sea water temperatures may constitute a minor factor in initiating the global recovery from glacial to interglacial conditions.
As it turns out from peer reviewed research, climate is the only stable thing in LA. Memo to LAT.
Also the first documented murder in LA was the female body found in the tar pits from native Americans.
The question is, how stable is stable; this article does not say. A sustained range of +/- 4 deg C might be fine for the beetles; I don’t know and I cannot find a link to the original paper. Does anyone have a link?
I found the Abstract here: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0277379117301671
If you want to pay $36, buy the whole article. But read my comment just below first.
These beetles the abstract refers to – Coleoptera: Carabidae, Tenebrionidae – live in a VERY wide range of climates. The statements by the researchers are pretty much misleading.
These same beetles are found in Kashmir and in British Columbia – among a LOT of other places. Their presence doesn’t say ANYTHING about LA’s climate being the same as now. BC and Kashmir certainly are NOT like LA.
Steve,
As below, you need to appreciate that the 182 species in the study, out of 20,000 in the widely distributed Family Tenebrionidae, are indeed indicators of environmental conditions in LA County not Kashmir, which has other species.
Coming into this a bit tardy, but what the hell…
The beetles in that study are COLEOPTERA: CARABIDAE, TENEBRIONIDAE. It does not take long to google it out that these beetles live in a wide variety of climates, including the climate of British Columbia and high elevations in Kashmir, in the Himalayas between the mountain K2 and Srinagar. And don’t think ONLY in those climates.
“The term “darkling beetle” describes the thousands of different insect species that belong to the genus Eleodes. Members of this insect group are found in different habitats all around the world.
“…darkling beetles by name, but there’s a good chance you’ve encountered these insects before. Their larvae are called mealworms and are often used as bait by fishermen. These beetles are common throughout North America and fill several roles in ecosystems across the continent.” – – – http://animals.mom.me/darkling-beetles-6318.html FACTS ON DARKLING BEETLES
The assertion that the climate was like NOW around LA is a false assertion. It might have been and might not have been. Most likely it was considerably COOLER. The darkling beetles under study had a WIDE range, so pinning it down to the following claim is bullshit:
NOT warmer and dryer. More likely cooler, if not wetter. That last sentence is total CRAP. The darkling beetles THEMSELVES are quite COMMONLY in cooler environments.
(Interestingly, the latitude in an Indian study of these beetles is essentially exactly as LA’s latitude (34°20′), even though the altitude is 3400 masl.)
That study of these very same beetles states, “The study area experienced both arctic and desert climate and commonly known as “Cold Desert” of the country.”
See https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235335076_GROUND_AND_DARKLING_BEETLES_COLEOPTERA_CARABIDAETENEBRIONIDAE_FROM_KARGIL_J_AND_K
HARDLY THE SAME CLIMATE AS LOS ANGELES.
Someone is misleading people her, folks. How many different ways can easily found sources tell us that darkling beetles are NOT confined to an climate area like LA?
The presence of those particular beetles, IOW, means NOTHING.
Steve,
The study involved 182 species in the Family Tenebrionidae, which contains around 20,000 species. The mix of species from the tar pits shows statistically significant similarity with those present today, except during the Last Glacial Maximum, the coldest interval of the Wisconsin glaciation.
Okay, save me $36 and tell me which of the 182 species.
In addition, tell me what the significance is that the EXCEPTION during the LGM was and why it is a tenable explanation for why something changed at the LGM. All of a sudden those beetles weren’t there anymore? Or they adapted for a few thousand years and now can’t anymore? Why the exception? Why do they not come out with what that exception is? I am limited to the Abstract, and am not in ANY way going to spend $36 on every one of the 100 papers I try to read every year.
Steve,
The 182 species were present during both the interval before the LGM and after it.
Beetles move. When it got too chilly for them in the LA Basin during the LGM, they moved to warmer climes. When it warmed up again leading into the Holocene, they came back.
Such movements have been observed in sediments and strata around the world. There are so many beetle species so adapted to particular environments that they are excellent climatic indicators. It’s a standard paleoclimatological procedure and has been for a long time.
As Haldane famously answered, when asked what his study of biology had taught him about the Creator, “That He is inordinately fond of beetles”.