From MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY and the “volatility” department comes this ridiculous study that was debunked even before it was written by existing tornado data, which shows no increase in tornados F3 and higher to 2012
and all tornadoes, essentially flat
and actually in downtrend since 1970:
Plus, a study also published this week that says a warmer climate is a more stable climate, ie. without increased severe weather volatility suggests their claim of more deaths and damage is just junk science with an agenda.
EAST LANSING, Mich. — Tornadoes and mobile homes don’t mix to begin with, but throw in the volatility of climate change and the potential for massive property damage and deaths is even higher in coming decades, indicates a new study by Michigan State University researchers.
The number of mobile homes in the United States has risen dramatically in the past 60 years, to about 9 million currently. Meanwhile, the U.S. is the most tornado-prone country in the world, with an average of 1,200 twisters per year, and scientists predict climate change will continue fueling more unstable weather events including tornadoes.
The annual impact of tornadoes is expected to increase threefold over the next few decades due to the “twin forces of increased climate variability and growth in the human-built environment,” according to the study, which is published online in the journal Regional Science and Urban Economics.
“If the climatologists are right about the continuing effects of climate change,” said Mark Skidmore, MSU economics professor and co-author of the study, “then people living in mobile homes could be particularly vulnerable to tornadoes in the years to come.”
The researchers investigated underlying factors of tornado fatalities in the U.S. from 1980 to 2014. There were 2,447 tornado-related deaths during that period; the bulk occurred in the “tornado alley” region of the Midwest and Southeast.
On average, Texas has the most tornadoes annually (150) followed by Kansas (80), Oklahoma (64) and Florida (61). Florida also has the most mobile homes in the nation (849,304), followed by Texas (731,652), according to U.S. Census data.
The two biggest factors related to tornado fatalities were housing quality (measured by mobile homes as a proportion of housing units) and income level. When a tornado strikes, a county with double the number of mobile homes as a proportion of all homes will experience 62 percent more fatalities than a county with fewer mobile homes, according to the study data.
The number of mobile homes in the U.S. increased from just 315,218 in 1950 to 8.7 million in 2010 – a trend that has been driven largely by persistent income inequality, Skidmore said.
“Though mobile homes offer a relatively inexpensive but comfortable housing alternative, it appears that this trend has made the United States more vulnerable to tornadoes over time,” the study says. “Given this trend and our findings, it is critical that federal, state and local policymakers consider alternatives to reduce vulnerability for those living in this type of housing arrangement.”
Recommendations include requiring communal shelters in mobile home parks and eliminating the often sizable tax breaks that mobile home owners receive and directing that extra revenue toward emergency management and public safety efforts.
While tax advantages make mobile home living more attractive, they also encourage people to live in housing that is more vulnerable to tornadoes, the study notes. “The external cost of being exposed to greater tornado risks may be ignored when households choose to live in mobile homes due to affordability.”
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Must be getting old and attenuated. Nothing factual or witty to add to the above. Carry on.
If you live in a mobile home in “Tornado Alley”, build a basement, or at least an underground shelter…
Actually, I have seen some with 5 ft. concrete block walls surrounding them…
“Though mobile homes offer a relatively inexpensive but comfortable housing alternative, it appears that this trend has made the United States more vulnerable to tornadoes over time,” the study says.
Oh, I get it. The people living on the other side of the UP rail line, that little valley with all the overpriced houses sitting cheek-by-jowl and yards smaller than mine, are just peeved, peeved, I tell you! because their property tax is about 100 times MY property tax on my park model double wide home (2 tiled bathrooms, 3 bedrooms, full kitchen and dining room and living room, hardwood floors, etc.). And MY house is set in a spot where the geography (hilly) is not tornado-friendly but THEIR houses are set in a perfect spot that IS tornado-friendly (downslope of a hill and all downhill from there), so they think I should have to pay more tax because TORNADOES!!!!! (Snort!!!) Yeah, right!
See, it’s just another excuse to tax old farts like me out of existence and make us go live in tents or something.
Unfortunately for the imbeciles who put this study together, topography has a lot to do with whether or not a tornado hits one place worse than another.Basically, if a twister strikes around here, it’s more likely going to ravage the Walmart over on the other side of the county highway overpass, because it’s in FLATLAND, than it is likely to come over to my house and rattle the front door, because I live in on top of a very hilly ancient sand dune left over from when Lake Michigan’s western shore was about 50 miles further inland than it is now.
And in addition, if you watch ANY twister videos, you’ll see that the issue is NOT mobile homes versus homes on foundations and private lots. It’s the simple fact that the twister gets its fingers under the eaves of ANY structure and rips the roof off, then shreds the rest of the building, regardless of its particular housing category. ANY STRUCTURE INCLUDING BUCKINGHAM PALACE AND A HIGHRISE BUILDING IN DALLAS, TX, CAN BE SHREDDED BY A TORNADO. Haven’t you seen those videos?
Now, if houses were designed and built so that the traveling wind bomb couldn’t GRAB anything and start pulling the roof off or tip something over, you might see a lot less damage and destruction. And no one has yet come up with a fascia or soffit or building design that lets the windstream slide over it as if it weren’t even there.
Anyway, I’m not moving. The squirrels would miss me.
I love it! Well done Sara.
The first three seconds of a tornado are as follows:
UP TO 00:01
As a twister barrels toward a home, it brings flying debris that shatters windows and pounds away at the exterior walls. Because they’re going so fast, the winds blowing over the roof exert uplift, the same aerodynamic force that allows airplanes to fly. Roof shingles and possibly even pieces of the roof decking tear away, becoming part of the maelstrom as the twister’s funnel begins its sweep over the unlucky home.
00:02
Air rushes into the home through the busted windows, filling the structure with pressure like a balloon being inflated, Reinhold says. Internal pressure pushes up against the ceiling, joining the uplift on the roof from the gales outside in putting pressure on the roof. The relatively weak connections between the roof and the walls give way and the roof blows off.
“Homes are not designed to withstand tornadoes,” says Timothy Marshall, principal engineer at Haag Engineering Co. and an expert on tornado damage. Building codes in non-hurricane designated areas—that is, everywhere except for southeastern Florida and off the coasts of Louisiana and Alabama—call for two 16-penny (3 1/2 inch) nails connecting roof trusses to exterior wall top plates. These connections are intended to gird homes against gusts up to 90 mph for 3 seconds at a height of 33 feet. But even an EF-1 tornado is capable of doling out more punishment.
00:03
With the roof gone, the walls are next. “Unless there are a lot of interior walls bracing and going into them, the [exterior walls] are flimsy and not well attached to each other at the corners,” Reinhold says. Without a roof, an ordinary home becomes a house of cards in the face of a tornado.
Though tornadoes spin in a cyclical motion, the fact that they’re so big—with a typical footprint measuring 500 feet wide—means that a house is effectively hammered by straight-line winds. The side walls parallel to the direction of these winds will typically go first, Reinhold says, because they feel the most suction. The front, windward wall then gets pushed in by the tornado, and finally the back wall blows out, all within about a second.
It’s the Mississippi River. Blame it on Ol’ Man River.
This is usually covered in an Earth science class so a Geography 100 level textbook will have it.
There is lots on the web.
Example: Here
Key ideas include warm/moist air available from over the Gulf of Mexico, cooler air to the north, a relatively uninterrupted surface region, atmospheric movements to bring the different air masses together.
Also: http://www.weather.gov/ama/supercell
So much ignorance.
Tornado damage is caused by differential pressure of the intense low pressure in the eye. Open the windows.
I have seen a massive old ‘historical landmark’ courthouse in Indiana gone except for the bathroom stalls in the basement. The remaining cold war era ‘shelter’ signs were a touch of irony. No one killed because no one was there that evening.
The low pressure sucks up debris that will shred everything in the path. It does not matter if it is a piece of straw or a telephone pole unless your building a nuclear containment building.
Mobile homes are not mobile. A more accurate description is a manufactured home. Built in a factory, moved to its final location. Camping trailers and motor homes are mobile. Park models are camping trailers designed to be located with water and sewer hookups.
All move down the road at speeds in excess of storm damage caused by falling trees and PV not secured properly.
RKP.
“Open the windows” Wrong. Opening the widows invites in high pressure air which usually leaves when things go Boom.
Not wrong!
Wiki may think so.
“It is often thought that opening windows will lessen the damage caused by the tornado. While there is a large drop in atmospheric pressure inside a strong tornado, it is unlikely that the pressure drop would be enough to cause the house to explode.”
It is the extreme and sudden pressure drop created by the rotation that creates the lift and extreme winds. Tornadoes are an interesting thermodynamic model.
Incorrect. Opening windows does nothing.
And park model homes are NOT recreational vehicles.
Not wrong!
Wiki may think so.
“It is often thought that opening windows will lessen the damage caused by the tornado. While there is a large drop in atmospheric pressure inside a strong tornado, it is unlikely that the pressure drop would be enough to cause the house to explode.”
It is the extreme and sudden pressure drop created by the rotation that creates the lift and extreme winds. Tornadoes are an interesting thermodynamic model.
Also Sara may be in violation of federal law. It is a matter of codes and standards and who enforces what that defines a RV from a manufactured home.
In the zeal to protect ‘poor’ people who are increasing living in the back of their cars and RV, governments cracking down. I have had a police officer in California with his hand on his gun and second patrol car as backup tell me we could not sleep in our RV. Sanctuary city my rosie behind.
HUD proposed regulations to make it a federal crime to live full time in something that does not meet their standards.
“What a Park Model RV Is
PMRVs (also sometimes referred to as recreational park trailers) are built on a single chassis, mounted on wheels and have a gross trailer area not exceeding 400 square feet in the set -up mode. They are certified by their manufacturers as complying with the ANSI A119.5 standard for recreational park trailers.
… These units are designed and built to be used for recreational/camping purposes only. They are not meant to be affixed to the property in any way, they do not improve property values in any way, and they are neither designed nor intended by their manufacturers to be used as permanent residences. Park model RVs are titled as motor vehicles by the various states just like other RV types.
The Recreation Vehicle Industry Association (RVIA) operates a safety standards and inspection program that requires member manufacturers of all recreation vehicles, including park model RVs, to affix a RVIA standards program seal to every unit they build in their factories. This seal indicates the manufacturer’s certification that the unit complies with the requirements of the applicable standards. A park model RV can always be identified by the blue and gold RVIA ANSI A119.5 certification seal (or its predecessor green RPTIA seal) affixed to the right of main door of the unit.
What a Park Model RV is Not
Although the distinctive appearance of park model RVs may sometimes lead people to think they look like small manufactured homes, appearances can be deceiving. PMRVs are actually titled and registered just like any other RV. Due to their design, small size and use as recreation, vacation and seasonal units, PMRVs are explicitly excluded from being considered or used as a manufactured home under the codes and regulations of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) specifically because they are a type of recreation vehicle (Title 24 § 3282.8(g)).
Park model RVs are built in accordance with the national safety standards set forth under a nationally recognized standard, the American National Standards Institute (ANSI) A119.5 Standard, not the HUD requirements that manufactured homes are mandated to comply with.”
http://www.park-model-homes.com/what_is_a_park_model_home.ydev
Also Sara may be in violation of federal law. It is a matter of codes and standards and who enforces what that defines a RV from a manufactured home.
In the zeal to protect ‘poor’ people who are increasing living in the back of their cars and RV, governments cracking down. HUD proposed regulations to make it a federal crime to live full time in something that does not meet their standards.
“What a Park Model RV Is
PMRVs (also sometimes referred to as recreational park trailers) are built on a single chassis, mounted on wheels and have a gross trailer area not exceeding 400 square feet in the set -up mode. They are certified by their manufacturers as complying with the ANSI A119.5 standard for recreational park trailers.
…
The Recreation Vehicle Industry Association (RVIA) operates a safety standards and inspection program that requires member manufacturers of all recreation vehicles, including park model RVs, to affix a RVIA standards program seal to every unit they build in their factories. This seal indicates the manufacturer’s certification that the unit complies with the requirements of the applicable standards. A park model RV can always be identified by the blue and gold RVIA ANSI A119.5 certification seal (or its predecessor green RPTIA seal) affixed to the right of main door of the unit.
What a Park Model RV is Not
Although the distinctive appearance of park model RVs may sometimes lead people to think they look like small manufactured homes, appearances can be deceiving. PMRVs are actually titled and registered just like any other RV. Due to their design, small size and use as recreation, vacation and seasonal units, PMRVs are explicitly excluded from being considered or used as a manufactured home under the codes and regulations of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) specifically because they are a type of recreation vehicle (Title 24 § 3282.8(g)).”
http://www.park-model-homes.com/what_is_a_park_model_home.ydev
I lived in Peachtree City, Ga for 16 years (’87-’03). There is (was) a Trailer Park north of Newnan that was severely damaged five times during that period. Heard many negative comments about God & trailer parks. Curious that tornadoes seemed to frequently track along I-85 from SW to NE. Probably due to typography and wind patterns.
“Curious that tornadoes seemed to frequently track along I-85 from SW to NE. Probably due to typography and wind patterns.”
I’ve noticed a strange local weather phenomenon here over the last few years. I will be watching an approaching severe storm front on the radar screen, and it will be a solid line stretching the entire length of the state of Oklahoma, and then when this line gets within about 30 miles of my location in Eastern Oklahoma, the line will split in two, and half of it goes north of me, and half of it goes south of me, and I’m left in the clear. It doesn’t happen all the time, but it does happen. I have always wondered if topography was influencing this behavior. Don’t have an answer.
““If the climatologists are right about the continuing effects of climate change,” said Mark Skidmore, MSU economics professor and co-author of the study”
Professor Skidmore said the magic words! This statement should preface every climate change study.
“Plus, a study also published this week that says a warmer climate is a more stable climate”
I don’t know about that. The 1930’s was the warmest recent time period we have experienced and the weather definitely was not “more stable”. We are not experiencing extreme weather today like we did in the 1930’s, so claiming the mild weather we are having now is connected with extreme heat is not logical.
That is proof that the 1930 were much hotter than our “mild” temperatures today…
“The number of mobile homes in the U.S. increased from just 315,218 in 1950 to 8.7 million in 2010 – a trend that has been driven largely by persistent income inequality, Skidmore said.”
I wouldn’t say that. Some “mobile homes” are large, expensive dwellings that you couldn’t tell from a site-built home.
What you are describing are “trailer parks”.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/flood-quebec-ontario-1.4098915
Another blame the jet stream story by another usual suspect…
CBC
My post about what is an RV and a manufactured home apparently went to moderation.
In this Issue, there is a lot of nanny state going on. My current motor home was purchased in the nanny state of Washington State. It has additional requirements to save energy on heating a cooling. Some of the windows are double pane. I sure the additional wight won’t hurt millage.
Put a pair of wings on your RV and it will fly.
Watterson was right… http://www.gocomics.com/calvinandhobbes/2008/12/19
Speaking of eye rollers and dangerous mixes, there’s now the global problem of Killer Whales and PCBs-
http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/world/most-contaminated-animal-washed-up-in-scotland/ar-BBALwfN
So the reader is naturally drawn to the most PCB contaminated Orca in the world-
“Analysis of Lulu’s blubber revealed PCB concentrations 100 times higher than the accepted toxicity threshold for marine mammals, the stranding scheme reports. High PCB levels are linked to poor health, impaired immune function, increased susceptibility to cancers and infertility.
Once PCBs get into the marine environment, they accumulate through food chains and are difficult if not impossible to remove, Brownlow said.
The investigation revealed that Lulu was at least 20 years old but apparently never reproduced, despite being much older than the average age for maturity in killer whales. Brownlow called Lulu’s apparent infertility an ominous warning and said it is “increasingly likely that this small group will eventually go extinct.” Lulu lived in a pod of about eight whales.”
Well that’s it for the killer whales by the looks of it but I wonder about their breeding habits-
“There is a huge amount of information about orca reproduction even though it has been very difficult for scientists to research this species in its natural habitat.”…..
http://www.killer-whale.org/killer-whale-reproduction/
So we don’t have much info on them in the wild but if one 20 yr old wild female hasn’t calved at 20 but could up to age 46 she’s clearly infertile due to PCBs and it’s curtains for the orcas. The thought that the accepted toxicity threshold for PCBs in marine mammals could be 100 times greater than it currently is never occurs to them?
“On average, Texas has the most tornadoes annually (150) followed by Kansas (80), Oklahoma (64) and Florida (61).” – Does anyone know if this number for Florida includes waterspouts?
I don’t for fact know about the waterspout count but my guess is no. Water spouts are pretty common in the summer and I expect the count would be much higher