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An African Development Bank study suggests the people most likely to emigrate to escape third world climate shocks are the highly skilled middle class.
Climate-linked migration has garnered political attention amid a global refugee crisis
By Nellie Peyton
DAKAR, April 7 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) – People who are driven to migrate by floods, droughts and other disasters linked to climate change come overwhelmingly from middle-income countries, not the poorest parts of the world, as is commonly believed, new research finds.
And those who move abroad due to natural disasters are likely to be highly educated, suggesting climate change could exacerbate “brain drain” from developing countries, according to Linguere Mously Mbaye, a consultant for the African Development Bank.
Very poor people cannot afford to migrate and the richest have other ways of coping such as accessing social services in the wake of disasters, she found.
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Read more: http://news.trust.org/item/20170407124758-x3nsq/
The study referenced by the press release;
Climate change, natural disasters, and migration
The relationship between migration and natural events is not straightforward and presents many complexities
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In developing countries, international migration due to disasters may be driven by highly educated people, which may foster brain drain in a vulnerable context.
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Migration can also serve as a coping mechanism through the remittances sent back by emigrants to communities affected by climatic shocks and natural disasters. Remittances help increase the resilience of households toward natural disasters and reduce their vulnerability to the effects of shocks. As migrants are, by de nition, not present in their home communities, their transfers provide insurance in case of shocks for their left-behind relatives. Consequently, remittances help households deal with income shocks caused by disasters.
An example from the Philippines shows that transfers of money back home from international migrants increase when natural disasters occur in their country of origin. Filipino households with overseas migrants managed to completely mitigate the income losses they suffered as a result of rainfall shocks with the receipt of remittances; this was not the case for households without overseas migrants [4]. In this context, it would thus be important to nd ways to reduce the cost of sending remittances, which currently remain high, particularly in the case of international migrants’ transfers.
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Read more: https://wol.iza.org/uploads/articles/346/pdfs/climate-change-natural-disasters-and-migration.pdf
Obviously nobody wants to wish disasters on others, but whatever the reason for migration, it is difficult to see the downside of skilled people migrating to rich Western countries.
The people who migrate gain access to better economic opportunities.
The migration also helps people back in the home country – when the skilled people send remittances, folk back home deal better with whatever problems they are facing.
The destination countries gain the economic advantages of all those imported skills.
When the highly skilled climate refugees finally return home, their experience of participating directly in a first world economy is undoubtably immensely valuable, for those who choose to set up their own business. Whatever short term loss third world countries might suffer from losing their best and brightest to first world countries is surely compensated by the additional skills those people bring back to their home countries, when they decide to return.
The only potential negative impact is on the employment prospects of citizens of the destination countries, who might find themselves crowded out of job markets by more skilled immigrants, but this can be mitigated by restricting skilled immigration intake to fields where there is a desperate shortage of local talent.
Bring it on.
The article is pure bollocks. But warmer weather, if it ever happens, would be great for most white/western countries because they are too cold.
Was it Obama that said floods, droughts, etc cause wars…they will just blame wars on climate change
Emigration is one thing. Evacuees/refugees are another.
I know the focus isn’t entirely on Africa, but dang, if middle class folks with skills haven’t left most African nations now due to poverty, civil war, tyranny, etc, when will they ever leave?
Even the the most rabid CAGW proponents in climate science know that the tropics doesn’t change – most of the warming takes place poleward from 60 Lat. It was 30C when I was in Lagos, Nigeria in mid 1960s, again in late 1990s and the record now shows it unchanged.
Trying to link climate change to migration, which is overwhelmingly driven by economics or conflict, is deeply dishonest. There are exceptions when drought causes issues, but this type of migration is often temporary and people return to their home or nomadic lifestyle. The real problem is that today many migrants are precisely the people which their countries of origin can least afford to lose – the educated, skilled and plain wealthier.
It is entirely wrong to make rude comments about the capabilities or intelligence of people in poorer countries just because they are poorer or less fortunate than we are. No country has a monopoly on talent and inventiveness.
Offering temporary refuge or selective residence to the displaced is a good thing; it is rather more difficult to see where and how we might find the balance so as not to rob developing nations of their most talented people. But wasting trillions on fake climate change projects is no way to progress.
I do hope these are legacy studies from the Obama insanity doctrine years around the world. If not the insanity is endemic.
So my big fat carbon foorint is hollowing out the productive middle class in Africa, leaving behind waits and orphans and other needy folks but we can fix it with cash from the UN. Forever.
Nothing good comes out of Africa, nothing. Disease, war, famine, religious intolerance, ignorance, sloth, big bugs, ferocious beasts and generations of people who have never known what modern society entails. Send them all back, they will add nothing to your country but burdens and crime.
Your mDNA can be traced to Africa. You inherited it from your mother, and she hers and so on into the past.
Migrants in Germany need five years or more on education and training to be valuable working power. And many do not get jobs vor even longer time.
naturbaumeister April 8, 2017 at 3:47 pm said:
“Migrants in Germany need five years or more on education and training to be valuable working power. And many do not get jobs vor (sic) even longer time.”
Perhaps this is due to the intricacies of the German language? However, I must admit that my wife, whose first language was Rumanian, and then learnt Hungarian when about 6 years old, and then as a refugee about 10 years old had to go to school in Germany not speaking a word of German, at the end of the school year came top in German. She then learnt English as a displaced person (emigrant) in Australia at the age of 16/17. Trouble is, by the time teen-age years are passed, it seems almost impossible to learn a new language unless one already is at least bilingual.
Could be that the migrants in Germany need 18 hours a day, seven days a week, intensive instruction in reading and speaking German. Would they then really need five years education to become “valuable working power”?
Maybe they could just learn Austrian.
http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/obama_on_that_awful_austrian_language/
“People who are driven to migrate by floods, droughts and other disasters linked to climate change come overwhelmingly from middle-income countries . . . suggesting climate change could exacerbate “brain drain” from developing countries,”
The stupidity of this is hard to understate. I think it’s safe to say with even greater confidence that “middle income” people with sought-after skills are driven to migrate to developed countries by the economic opportunity there. If you want to stop migration and “brain drain” – and protect the people who don’t migrate from the consequences of “floods droughts and other disasters” – the most effective way of doing that is through economic development which requires . . . wait . . . wait for it . . . burning copious amounts of fossil fuels.