African Development Bank Study: Climate Might Boost the Western Economy

Large Trade Show.

Large Trade Show. By Kounosu (Own work) [GFDL or CC BY-SA 3.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

An African Development Bank study suggests the people most likely to emigrate to escape third world climate shocks are the highly skilled middle class.

Climate-linked migration has garnered political attention amid a global refugee crisis

By Nellie Peyton

DAKAR, April 7 (Thomson Reuters Foundation) – People who are driven to migrate by floods, droughts and other disasters linked to climate change come overwhelmingly from middle-income countries, not the poorest parts of the world, as is commonly believed, new research finds.

And those who move abroad due to natural disasters are likely to be highly educated, suggesting climate change could exacerbate “brain drain” from developing countries, according to Linguere Mously Mbaye, a consultant for the African Development Bank.

Very poor people cannot afford to migrate and the richest have other ways of coping such as accessing social services in the wake of disasters, she found.

Read more: http://news.trust.org/item/20170407124758-x3nsq/

The study referenced by the press release;

Climate change, natural disasters, and migration

The relationship between migration and natural events is not straightforward and presents many complexities

In developing countries, international migration due to disasters may be driven by highly educated people, which may foster brain drain in a vulnerable context.

Migration can also serve as a coping mechanism through the remittances sent back by emigrants to communities affected by climatic shocks and natural disasters. Remittances help increase the resilience of households toward natural disasters and reduce their vulnerability to the effects of shocks. As migrants are, by de nition, not present in their home communities, their transfers provide insurance in case of shocks for their left-behind relatives. Consequently, remittances help households deal with income shocks caused by disasters.

An example from the Philippines shows that transfers of money back home from international migrants increase when natural disasters occur in their country of origin. Filipino households with overseas migrants managed to completely mitigate the income losses they suffered as a result of rainfall shocks with the receipt of remittances; this was not the case for households without overseas migrants [4]. In this context, it would thus be important to nd ways to reduce the cost of sending remittances, which currently remain high, particularly in the case of international migrants’ transfers.

Read more: https://wol.iza.org/uploads/articles/346/pdfs/climate-change-natural-disasters-and-migration.pdf

Obviously nobody wants to wish disasters on others, but whatever the reason for migration, it is difficult to see the downside of skilled people migrating to rich Western countries.

The people who migrate gain access to better economic opportunities.

The migration also helps people back in the home country – when the skilled people send remittances, folk back home deal better with whatever problems they are facing.

The destination countries gain the economic advantages of all those imported skills.

When the highly skilled climate refugees finally return home, their experience of participating directly in a first world economy is undoubtably immensely valuable, for those who choose to set up their own business. Whatever short term loss third world countries might suffer from losing their best and brightest to first world countries is surely compensated by the additional skills those people bring back to their home countries, when they decide to return.

The only potential negative impact is on the employment prospects of citizens of the destination countries, who might find themselves crowded out of job markets by more skilled immigrants, but this can be mitigated by restricting skilled immigration intake to fields where there is a desperate shortage of local talent.

Bring it on.

Advertisements

107 thoughts on “African Development Bank Study: Climate Might Boost the Western Economy

  1. Whether those skilled immigrants come to the US, go to the EU, or China or even stay where they are.
    They still compete with US workers.

  2. Skilled workers have always migrated from the third world since most gain their skills in the developed world and once they get a taste don’t want to go back where opportunities are limited. Connecting this to climate change is just more alarmists drivel.

    • Yeah, this sort of sounded like a “Get on board with ClimateChange™ or else more highly-skilled and educated immigrants are going to come to your country and steal your jobs” gambit to me.

      It would be interesting indeed to find out how much government money funds ClimateChange™-related messaging consultants, social engineering professors, marketing companies, PR firms, “influencers”, astroturfers, sociology researchers, etc.

  3. Skillled is a sliding scale….most within Africa is labor….they will move from one country to another where there a jobs in manual labor…not much different than what we have here

  4. Well I am so glad that Europe is not being flooded by poverty stricken middle Easterners with no skills beyond the ability to drive a truck into a crowded pedestrian area.

    • Can only assume your referring to Stockholm. Where did you get the info they were “middle easterners”?
      I have yet to see a factual report on either the nationality of the scum or their motive. That silence on the issue is of course in EU countries, is a pretty good sign your correct but one has to be careful about such assumptions no matter how logical they may seem. I mean it could have been one of those deadly Amish gangs!

      On Thursday a 27 year old Muslim immigrant threw a 66 year old Jewish woman to her death from a third story window of her apartment screaming “Allahu Akbar’’ in Paris and the French authorities are still clueless about his motivation. http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2017/04/paris-horror-elderly-jewish-woman-thrown-apartment-death-cry-allahu-akbar/

      One can never know. They could all just be deranged individuals acting on their own you know. Gag!

      • Well I see now they have identified the alleged perp as a man from Uzbek. Still no mention of motive.

      • I think your assumtption is not warranted, could just as well be a reference to the incident in Nice, France, in july last year, sure the perp was from Tunis therefore not strictly speakin a middle easterner but his anchestors might well have been from the immigrant flood from across the suez that followed the in the wake of the genocide that the invading arabs commited in North Africa.

      • The murderer was not from Middle East but Central Asia. A totally different flavor of misanthtropy there. /sarc

        On Thursday a 27 year old Muslim immigrant threw a 66 year old Jewish woman to her death from a third story window of her apartment screaming “Allahu Akbar’’ in Paris and the French authorities are still clueless about his motivation.

        That could just go for a bad joke but what is bad is that the European media fails to make news of these anymore on basis they say it would be r*cism to mention an Isl*mist radical murdered an elderly J*wish woman. And, if you mention, you are one of those extreme right anti-S*mites. Cheez.

        Also, they call these recurrent cases solitary and refuse to see the emerging pattern of hate crimes whose victims are innocent 3rd parties who just not happen to be citizens of an Isl*mic country. And, if they happen to admit that there is something wrong, it is the white suppressors who made them do it. I give up. Maybe we can set up a fence around Sweden. /sarc

      • Even if the most recent incident wasn’t caused by middle easterners, there have been enough similar incidents recently to justify the comment.

    • Bjorn
      Sarcasm is hard to communicate sometimes in forums like this. But that is what is was. I guess I should have used a [sarc] tag at the end.

    • London last month. Again reported by the press as a lone madman. Motive not reported for days. The constant refusal to admit the reality by the countries authorities is silly and fools only people like Griff. It is crazy.

      I remember well the reporting on the Washingon beltway shooters and the press quickly promoting the idea the murders were being perpetrated by an “angry white male”.

  5. To be a bit pedantic, most of the problems of third world countries are due to political/economic factors, not who is living there per se. Many of the economic migrants are those who would have done fairly well in their home country except for the economy, which is determined largely by the countries politics.

    • No, third world countries are full of low IQ people. That is the reason that they are 3rd worlders in the first place. They wouldn’t even have any technology to speak of if it weren’t exported.

      • So your ancestors who raised the inventor of the steam engine were stupid?
        How did the great leap forward happen?

      • No. There are a lot of dumb people in the third world. There are also lots of clever people in the third world, people fluent in multiple languages, highly intelligent. They tend to be professionals, doctors and lawyers and engineers and such like, or if they didn’t have access to formal education, they are the people running tourist businesses and suchlike.

  6. The ultimate solution is twofold, Education and affordable abundant reliable energy sources. In both the migrants country of origin and their western destinations, education is the key to both the Brain Drain potential their home faces and the probable job market competition in their new host country. And affordable abundant reliable energy sources will help ease their poverty and increase their educational potential creating more local opportunities and fewer needs to migrate.

    • Affordable and reliable energy is a minor issue compared to political stability for investment and skills retention. Extent of corruption is also much more important than energy. Splitting hairs over minor issues will not answer much and that explains the lack of progress in most of Africa over the decades.

      • You hit the nail on the head. Examples: every mid-eastern country save Israel and Jordan. Venezuela. Many of the ‘stans. Most central and south American countries. They have plenty of energy resources, but corruption runs rampant, and they are still cesspools.

    • I no longer believe education is the answer. We have spent a fortune on public eductation for nearly a century and all we have to show for it is 150mm cluless liberals.

      • We have spent a fortune on public education for nearly a century and all we have to show for it is 150mm clueless liberals.

        That goes both ways. Ending up with those two major party candidates in the presidential election has to be a negative reflection on the educational system’s ability to teach critical thinking. Of course the left would never admit that, because it controls that system. And although the right understands that, it doesn’t want to concede the flaws in its own candidate. So the issue isn’t going to get the attention it needs.

      • “And although the right understands that, it doesn’t want to concede the flaws in its own candidate.”

        Oh, I wouldn’t say that. It’s just that Trump has a lot fewer flaws than did Hillary.

      • That simply means that *public* education is not the answer. The need for knowledge is always going to be present in industrial society populations, but for the last 50 years less and less of it has been delivered per dollar spent by and for public education. Teacher’s unions, especially those dominated by administrators, are the first reason for that, while educational resources being diverted to progressive political indoctrination is a strong second.

        Education can do better if rewards are separated from government control. Set up rewards for performance through the parents, in which parents give their teaching vouchers and testing vouchers to separate companies. Make the majority of the reward not for time spent teaching the current class, but for how well the student does in the *next* class after the current one. Yes, this means the income to the teachers from the Fall term will be delayed until the end of Winter term, etc. Then make sure that students’ parents whose children score in the top X percent get financial rewards beyond the vouchers to do with as they will. Make those rewards increase as the test scores climb.

        The results will be quite astounding. The progressives would hate it!

      • I have visited Zambia, a typical 3rd world African country, periodically over several decades.
        Zambia has an abundance of natural resources, water and land. It should be wealthy nation.
        Despite widespread aid for education, healthcare and development I find the GDP per capita has stagnated. Education is not the problem. Literacy is high.
        From what I can see the economic damage is being caused by a sort of klepto-corrupto-culture. Everybody steals what they can, whether is is the President, members of parliament, traditional chiefs, police, local government officials or normal employees.
        The everyday economy is strangled. Travel of goods and people is painfully slow with badly damaged roads, frequent harrassing police blocks, painfully slow customs and so on. The railways are hardly used because entire trainloads get stolen. Big transport companies run truck convoys to get the mining and agricultural output to market. Any aspiring business is taxed and harassed by local authorities for revenue. The officials are focussed with collecting revenue and provide little or no public service in return.
        The depressing thing is that is has got worse over the years. As trade and commerce has boomed in the first world, it has regressed in third world countries like Zambia.
        The fault is internal, after half a century of independence they can no longer blame colonialism, non-indigenous residents or exploitation by first world companies.

      • Ah, but the conservatives are strong enough to carry them into the future, and give them a good life. That is part of what makes liberals so bitter – many of them recognize that they are nothing without producers to support their way of life.

    • Without a compatible political system, the economy will never grow, no matter how much education or how cheap the energy.

  7. What a bunch of horse hooey.

    “Investing in resilience in source countries is absolutely crucial to helping people remain in place, which they often prefer,” said Shiloh Fetzek, a senior fellow at the U.S. Center for Climate and Security.

    Hear that, China? Invest away, new “climate leader”.

    • No problems, China already invests in the black continent.

      And delegates its own employees.

      • Unfortunately, if the local population is too corrupt, supplanting the leadership with your own people may be the only long term solution.
        The culture of corruption has to be rooted out completely, and many times that is impossible to do, working with local officials.

  8. “driven to migrate by floods, droughts and other disasters linked to climate change.” We want a stable climate back, as it always was in .. in fairy tales.

  9. Skilled economic migrants are driven by a lack of opportunity caused by official corruption.
    They also flee a lack of open markets caused by official corruption.
    They also flee a lack of property rights caused by official corruption.

    Of course the officials responsible will blame “Climate Change”. In years past, they blamed “Colonialization” and the Western Colonial Powers, and the West in general when that was fashionable.

    So What?

  10. It must have been climate change that caused so many European immigrants to America. It couldn’t have possibly been political or economic opportunities. No wonder Mexicans cross the border it’s so hot in Mexico that they’d rather be second class citizens in the US with the hope of attaining a life undreamed of in their homeland. All because of climate change. … of course it’s sarcasm…. who are they trying to convince of this crap. Maybe the people with intelligence are thinking there arent any opportunities in these 3rd world countries.

    • Americans have romanticized Mexico….we have a third world country at our southern border

      • Rrright! That’s why Trump is building a wall that a majority of romantic Americans are cheering. They want Mexico to exotic and remote.

    • “It must have been climate change that caused so many European immigrants to America. ”

      In at least one place there is good evidence for that. The depths of the Little Ice Age saw 1828 with the view from Cape Wrath showing a thin white line on the horizon, that being Pack Ice, that extended all the way to the North Pole. Not too surprisingly, it was about 1830 that saw the final peak of British emigration from Britain to America.

  11. Actually, from down here in South Africa, I see the major emigration driver as the ANC Government and its laws. They are not explicitly ‘waycist’, but DO insist on everthing following the ‘national demographics’. And incidentally, the Government is in favour of an incredibly expensive nuclear fleet – not because of the ‘warming’, but because the Russians pay MUCH better bribes…

  12. When the highly skilled climate refugees finally return home,

    I want some of what he has been drinking.

    the additional skills those people bring back to their home countries, when they decide to return.

    Make it a double!

    • Immigrants are only skilled in left-wing ‘we-want-more-immigrants’ pose speech. In reality, immigrants are always forced to do whatever they do at lower price than natives, and do odd jobs instead of what they are skilled in or educated for.

      I have nothing against working immigrants. Could be one myself. It is just that left wing uses them as a tool for their politics that disgusts me.

      Left wing turns an illegal into an immigrant, and a refugee into a tax-payer. No need to check anything, as this is something that just has to be true taken one’s values fixed.

  13. Eric, the target in this anyway biased and alarmistic studie

    By Nellie Peyton is

    “In this context, it would thus be important to find ways

    to reduce the cost of sending remittances, which currently remain high, particularly in the case of international migrants’ transfers.”

    Cheers – Hans

  14. what climate shocks ? they are leaving because those countries are run by corrupt dictators or medieval savages …

    • Just something else to blame on global warming along with increase prostitution, pimples and all the other nonsense.

  15. who might find themselves crowded out of job markets by more skilled immigrants, but this can be mitigated by restricting skilled immigration intake to fields where there is a desperate shortage of local talent

    Points awarded for anybody who can point out a skilled labor shortage in any field in any western country, “desperate” or otherwise. Bonus points awarded for pointing out any western country that tried to relieve it’s skilled labor shortage by developing local talent and failed, requiring the import of outside labor.

    • Re TonyL said:

      “Points awarded for anybody who can point out a skilled labor (sic) shortage in any field in any western country, “desperate” or otherwise. Bonus points awarded for pointing out any western country that tried to relieve it’s (sic) skilled labor shortage by developing local talent and failed, requiring the import of outside labor.”

      Depends on your definition of ‘skilled’. Picking fruit is actually a very skilled occupation, as the pickers have to very quickly identify fruit that are ripe and ready to pick, ignoring those that are blemished, or too soft and thus would be bruised by being put into a basket. This must be done quickly, or else the payments will not be right.

      Australia is such a country. We have tried to use our own local labour for this job, but have failed. As a result, we have to import young European lads and lassies to do the picking – either on 417 or 462 visas – basically working visas, or on working + holiday visas, and we recently had a row in Parliament regarding their rate of taxation. In Australia, the rate for incomes below $18 200 is zero, and for incomes above up to $37 000 it is 19 cents in the dollar. As the fruit picking season tends to be short, depending on the crop, rarely will fruit pickers earn more than $18 200, so their work has been up to now, untaxed. This means that the wages of Australian fruit pickers, who are not bound by visa requirements to leave within 6 months, are comparatively heavily taxed as during the rest of the year they are almost certain to earn more than the $18 200 limit and therefore pay tax on their earnings. Foreign residents – who will normally be earning throughout the year – pay a flat 32.5% on everything up to $87 000. When the ATO tried to impose this on the fruit pickers, the farmers screamed – not surprisingly – as at this tax rate the foreign students, holiday makers, etc, would not come to work! Eventually after a lot of argy-bargy and shifting of positions in Parliament, it was settled that they would be taxed at 15% up to $37 000.

      TonyL, I claim the points and bonus points (sarc, in case anyone has not noticed!)

    • “TonyL April 8, 2017 at 9:04 am

      Points awarded for anybody who can point out a skilled labor shortage in any field in any western country, “desperate” or otherwise.”

      Dudly makes a very good post. But I can call on three examples. Britain, circa 1950’s, specifically London Transport (LT). No “locals” would drive or become conductors, so LT found workers from Jamaica/Africa etc and migrated them to London.

      Australia, is always looking for skilled workers in a whole host of lines of business ranging from hair dressing to baking. Similar situation in New Zealand too. I give you these two examples as I have experience as a skilled migrant, a very convoluted and expensive process, in both countries.

  16. When I was a kid (whew, that was a long time ago) there was a brand of beer which I won’t name. Suffice it to say that the brand name rhymed with the plural of a four letter word for feces that otherwise begins with ‘s’ and ends with ‘t’ except that the plural version ends with ‘s’ too.

    Anyway, that four letter word pretty much described the quality of the beer. I mean, it really was ‘sh…t.’ But, the brewer thought they could make a lotta money by brewing a cheap, crap beer, but still sell boatloads by advertising the heck out of it.

    Well, it didn’t work.

    Anyway, maybe it’s because of years of mental torment by my sister, my older sister, and/or the news media, and years of alcohol abuse (I prefer to call it enthusiastic consumption), that the first thought that popped into my brain when I read this post was that beer I’ve just described.

    Why? Well, just like our climateers have, for years, been trying to sell us junk; imposed junky lifestyles for ourselves, junky science, junky policies; that brewery was trying to sell us junk and get us to drink it.

    How long’s it been now? Almost forty years? Forty years of sea level rise (NOT), flooding coastlines (NOT), super hurricanes (double NOT), storms, drought, floods, reduced crop yields (NOT, NOT, NOT, and NOT). And, now our climateer marketers have latched on to the new cause d’jour: Immigration!

    • And they are still trying to sell the AGW / CC(TM) rubbish. My wife and I just went to the cinema and saw the trailer for the sequel to An Inconvenient Truth, designed to rally the faithful to save the world from Trump and the callous US (the trailer and, I presume, the film). Get your tickets early – you don’t want to be trampled in the rush.

  17. Here in eastern Canada a municipality is holding a fair this weekend to encourage people who have been educated here and have gone elsewhere to find work- the purpose of the fair is to encourage them to return here to increase the population. The organizers forget that there have to be the ways for them to make a living. (Sorry, I don’t have the name because it was on the news only once.)
    Ian M

    • And the brilliant folks here on the Left (Loony) coast, noticing the migration of folks from our country’s heartland, have proposed moving all the welfare recipients to the middle of the country, because they’ll find jobs there.

  18. I am puzzled by the fact that for all the many centuries of african people, they never seem to produce the innovators engineers etc to evolve and remain stuck in past time in comparison.

    I wonder how many of those from African tribes who have used their intellect to qualify as doctors etc, have returned to their homeland to help development.

    All the money in the world will not contribute to their evolution.

    • Roger….what’s more amazing is they have had these same exact problems for thousands of years…
      ..and have yet to solve them

    • >>
      I am puzzled by the fact that for all the many centuries of african people, they never seem to produce the innovators engineers etc to evolve and remain stuck in past time in comparison.
      <<

      It’s amazing how they managed to erect giant pyramid structures without the aid of modern technology or the wheel. Their “poor engineering skills” are still marveled at today.

      Jim

      • That’s like saying everyone in Georgia is smart..because Whitney invented the cotton gin
        ….yes, I know he was from Massachusetts

        Egypt=Persia

      • >>
        Egypt=Persia
        <<

        So Egypt isn’t in Africa? I need a new atlas.

        >>
        That’s like saying everyone in Georgia is smart..because Whitney invented the cotton gin
        <<

        I know how computers and other electronic devices work. My EE specialty is digital electronics. I know how to design them. I also know how to program at least five different types of computers at the assembly level. Most people haven’t got a clue. Your statement is nonsense.

        Jim

      • Jim, my statement was history…
        Egypt was more a Mediterranean country than African

        Saying they managed to erect giant pyramids….is not true for the whole of Africa

      • >>
        The Pyramids? Who did the design/engineering work, Jim?
        <<

        Is this a trick question? Hmmmm, let me think. Ponder, think, think . . . what was the question again?

        Jim

      • Trick question? Sir, you don’t know the answer, right? Is everything built in Africa now, designed and engendered by Africans? Obviously not . .

      • Africa had a number of advanced civilizations over the millennia. Most aren’t well known because they were isolated from the Mediterranean cultures that we all know about.
        Africa’s biggest problem is a shortage of navigable rivers and good ports.

    • One of the cleverest, hardest working people I ever met was from Ghana.

      When I met him he was a supervisor in a London based merchant bank. He wasn’t being promoted because he was the only person who knew how to do that job – nobody else was willing to put the work into mastering the horrible arcane software he was managing.

      He got a new job at a different merchant bank. Within 2 years he was reporting directly to the general manager of the London business, managing 100s of people.

      • “ColinB April 8, 2017 at 10:01 pm”

        In my experience I would say culture and tradition. Well, I am British, been to Africa a few times and am married to an African and offspring is expected from a union.

      • Yet he is not doing it in Africa, I believe that is the point. Easy example, Zimbabwe. Prior to Mugabe it was very successful, exporting food and minerals, high level of literacy and stable standard of living. Now? An absolute nightmare. That is just one. Over the years I have worked with and for very intelligent and hardworking people from countries in Central Africa. One thing they all had in common? They got the f*ck OUT of Africa before they ended up as slave labor for some warlord or as a desiccated corpse on the side of a road.

      • “2hotel9 April 9, 2017 at 4:41 am”

        My wife is from Zimbabwe and I can agree with your post. She now works in aged care as a registered nurse which is a growing industry in Australia.

      • Patrick? This comment just showed up today, 4/16/17, not sure why. Glad to hear this! Always like to see immigration stories with a positive outcome. Does she still have family there? I know two people here in, well, here, who have been working to pull out family members during the last 10 years. Hope you guys continue to do well.

  19. The problem with this article is the founding premise that weather disasters will become more extreme in a warming world. All evidence and empirical reasoning points to a more beneficial biosphere on a gently warming planet. There may be a few spots that slowly become less hospitable, but the vast majority of habitable land areas will become more user friendly.

    There was a skit that they used​ to do on Saturday Night Live called ‘What if…’. one episode asked the question: ‘What if Napoleon had a B-52 at Waterloo?’ Scholarly types than sat around and seriously discussed the ramifications to history of Napoleon having a bomber packing nuclear weapons. It was so ridicules that it was hysterical.

    The whole climate change industry is nothing more than that comedy skit come to life. Unfortunately, it is the opposite of funny. This make-believe world is being used to create policy in the real world. The only possible result will be an increase in human misery.

  20. From the article: “People who are driven to migrate by floods, droughts and other disasters linked to climate change”

    It would be informative if they would list a few examples of large numbers of people migrating because of floods, droughts and other disasters.

    The only real mass migration going on today is because of war. Climate has nothing to do with it.

  21. So, as the number of victims from natural disasters keeps dropping, this will not be a problem. Oh wait. They got money for the research, there HAS to be a problem! Nobody will fund a study that says “no problem here, relax”.

  22. An African Development Bank study suggests the people most likely to emigrate to escape third world climate shocks are the highly skilled middle class./I>

    To which the obvious response is They would say that wouldn’t they In the real world it’s the economy stupid. It has nothing to do with weather or climate

    Thus far, the millions that have come to Europe and are on their way from Africa, the Middle East, Pakistan, Afghanistan etc are not doctors, scientists or entrepreneurs, they are mostly unemployable. Many are illiterate in their own language, let alone English.

    Germany’s Federal Service for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) has released a new study on nearly 1.1 million refugees who entered the country last year [2015], offering a closer look at migrants from a social perspective. Based on survey data collected from asylum applicants, it gives the first closer look at migrants’ social status, education, age and occupations. 

    The study, called “Asylum applicants: Social structure, qualifications and employability,” says that most of refugees who came to Germany in 2015 are young men. Most males, seen by country, come from Pakistan, followed by Afghans, Syrians, Eritreans and Iraqis. Under-22s make up the biggest proportion among the Eritreans (over 46 percent), the Afghans (40 percent) and Iraqis (27 percent).
    In total, nearly two-thirds of all refugees are 33 and under, with only a tiny proportion of people older than 52, the study says.

    Last October, the Federal Employment Agency said that that 81 percent of asylum seekers were “without formal qualifications,” claiming that due to the heavy refugee influx there will be at least 400,000 additional welfare recipients in 2016.

    https://www.rt.com/news/343753-germany-refugees-males-statistics/

    If anything, the ;highly skilled middle class; will be the last to arrive and by then it will be too late, anyway..

  23. “An example from the Philippines shows that transfers of money back home from international migrants increase when natural disasters occur in their country of origin.” Imagine that people supporting the back home, send more money home during times of crisis? Who would have thought?

  24. Quote: People who are driven to migrate by floods, droughts and other disasters linked to climate change …

    I don’t suppose they could name a few people they believe are in the class of people they describe. Or give a rough estimate of the number of people in this class. Or perhaps identify one of these floods, droughts and other disasters linked to climate change.

    And that’s not even the end of the first sentence of the article!

    • Was it Obama that said floods, droughts, etc cause wars…they will just blame wars on climate change

  25. It is hard to see where in the world things are getting worse in terms of famine
    https://ourworldindata.org/famines/, or natural catastrophe: https://ourworldindata.org/natural-catastrophes/

    And to quote https://ourworldindata.org/indoor-air-pollution/
    “Indoor air pollution is by far the biggest environmental problem of the world. Every year, 4.3 million people die due to the exposure to household air pollution caused by indoor open fire. To bring this in perspective: This is 45-times the number of the global annual deaths from natural catastrophes (±95,000 in the 2010s).”

  26. The article is pure bollocks. But warmer weather, if it ever happens, would be great for most white/western countries because they are too cold.

  27. Emigration is one thing. Evacuees/refugees are another.

    I know the focus isn’t entirely on Africa, but dang, if middle class folks with skills haven’t left most African nations now due to poverty, civil war, tyranny, etc, when will they ever leave?

  28. Even the the most rabid CAGW proponents in climate science know that the tropics doesn’t change – most of the warming takes place poleward from 60 Lat. It was 30C when I was in Lagos, Nigeria in mid 1960s, again in late 1990s and the record now shows it unchanged.

  29. Trying to link climate change to migration, which is overwhelmingly driven by economics or conflict, is deeply dishonest. There are exceptions when drought causes issues, but this type of migration is often temporary and people return to their home or nomadic lifestyle. The real problem is that today many migrants are precisely the people which their countries of origin can least afford to lose – the educated, skilled and plain wealthier.
    It is entirely wrong to make rude comments about the capabilities or intelligence of people in poorer countries just because they are poorer or less fortunate than we are. No country has a monopoly on talent and inventiveness.
    Offering temporary refuge or selective residence to the displaced is a good thing; it is rather more difficult to see where and how we might find the balance so as not to rob developing nations of their most talented people. But wasting trillions on fake climate change projects is no way to progress.

  30. I do hope these are legacy studies from the Obama insanity doctrine years around the world. If not the insanity is endemic.

  31. So my big fat carbon foorint is hollowing out the productive middle class in Africa, leaving behind waits and orphans and other needy folks but we can fix it with cash from the UN. Forever.

  32. Nothing good comes out of Africa, nothing. Disease, war, famine, religious intolerance, ignorance, sloth, big bugs, ferocious beasts and generations of people who have never known what modern society entails. Send them all back, they will add nothing to your country but burdens and crime.

    • Since homo sapiens came out of Africa, are you claiming that human beings are not good?

    • Your mDNA can be traced to Africa. You inherited it from your mother, and she hers and so on into the past.

  33. naturbaumeister April 8, 2017 at 3:47 pm said:

    “Migrants in Germany need five years or more on education and training to be valuable working power. And many do not get jobs vor (sic) even longer time.”

    Perhaps this is due to the intricacies of the German language? However, I must admit that my wife, whose first language was Rumanian, and then learnt Hungarian when about 6 years old, and then as a refugee about 10 years old had to go to school in Germany not speaking a word of German, at the end of the school year came top in German. She then learnt English as a displaced person (emigrant) in Australia at the age of 16/17. Trouble is, by the time teen-age years are passed, it seems almost impossible to learn a new language unless one already is at least bilingual.

    Could be that the migrants in Germany need 18 hours a day, seven days a week, intensive instruction in reading and speaking German. Would they then really need five years education to become “valuable working power”?

  34. “People who are driven to migrate by floods, droughts and other disasters linked to climate change come overwhelmingly from middle-income countries . . . suggesting climate change could exacerbate “brain drain” from developing countries,”

    The stupidity of this is hard to understate. I think it’s safe to say with even greater confidence that “middle income” people with sought-after skills are driven to migrate to developed countries by the economic opportunity there. If you want to stop migration and “brain drain” – and protect the people who don’t migrate from the consequences of “floods droughts and other disasters” – the most effective way of doing that is through economic development which requires . . . wait . . . wait for it . . . burning copious amounts of fossil fuels.

Comments are closed.