Climate change debate – latest results

How so? The facts based on this graph demonstrates temperatures do not follow CO2 rises. And remember it is ONLY CO2 from human activities that drives climate change, so we are told.

The graph does not show the 1940s to 1970s, Nick. It’s like the riddle where you are asked if you invited your parents over and they are at the door, and you bought sugar, butter, and flour, to make cookies, which do you open first? And then you answer “the butter”, when you should have said, “The door.”

Unless, as I suspect, it is easier for warming oceans to give up CO2 than it is for cooling oceans to absorb CO2.

Nick,
“Note that, as a consequence, the CO2 concentration will not fall until after the temperature falls below a critical value. This is predicted to be a surface temperature of zero degrees Centigrade at which point water freezes and is no longer available to support the continued regeneration of the biogenetic sources that create CO2.”

“And remember it is ONLY CO2 from human activities that drives climate change, so we are told.”
Who said that?

Nick, what you say supposes that CO2 concentrations would essentially depend on temperatures. There is a visible correlation of Mauna Loa carbon dioxide concentration variations following northern hemisphere temperature variations with a 8 months delay.
Another interesting paper studied the correlation of the variations of CO2 concentrations in relation to human emission. It found no significant relations.
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2642639
” Abstract:
A statistically significant correlation between annual anthropogenic CO2 emissions and the annual rate of accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere over a 53-year sample period from 1959-2011 is likely to be spurious because it vanishes when the two series are detrended. The results do not indicate a measurable year to year effect of annual anthropogenic emissions on the annual rate of CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere.”

“Chris December 16, 2016 at 9:44 pm”
Climate scientists etc etc…

If we look at Figure 1, some peaks in CO2 are coinciding with temperature but in majority of the cases the CO2 peaks have no corresponding peaks in temperature but present flat pattern. See after 2000 upto 2005.
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy

Nick,
You said
“Then there is the slow effect of CO2 blocking outgoing IR. That causes accumulation of heat on a decades scale. The CO2 we have added is new.”
Why will heat accumulate over decades, instead of simply cause an acceleration of the flow of heat to the poles, and an increase in convective thunderstorms, both of which lead to it being lost into space?
If this assertion is correct, how to explain the drop in global temps from the 1940s to the 1970s, when CO2 was increasing, or during the past twenty years or so, when CO2 has increased faster than ever?
Saying a thing and believing it to be the case does not make it true.

“No it doesn’t. A cooling earth with this beautiful correlation, should have produced falling CO2 levels.”
No, it should have produced a falling rate of change of CO2. And, it did.

Menicholas:
“Why will heat accumulate over decades, instead of simply cause an acceleration of the flow of heat to the poles, and an increase in convective thunderstorms, both of which lead to it being lost into space?”
So you want the ocean currents and convective input, jet streams, all winds in fact – to increase to do that?
Because that is what is needed to “cause an acceleration of the flow of heat to the poles”.
The tropics is developing a “hot-spot” whereby there is a -ve feedback to warming (any forcing of warming)
“If this assertion is correct, how to explain the drop in global temps from the 1940s to the 1970s, when CO2 was increasing, or during the past twenty years or so, when CO2 has increased faster than ever?
That was a period before the +ve forcing of GHG’s significantly outweighed the -ve ones of aerosol.
Vis “Global dimming”.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_dimming
http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-content/uploads/GISS-forcings1.gif
The last 20 years has seen the GSMT suppressed by a prolonged spell of -vePDO/ENSO regime.
However ….
http://www.woodfortrees.org/graph/uah6/plot/esrl-co2/from:1979/scale:0.01/offset:-3.63
Shows it matches very well with the longer-term trend with the last 2 years having returned up to from the *pause*.
“Saying a thing and believing it to be the case does not make it true.”
It does if the evidence points to that conclusion within 95% conf limits.
It does.
What does not make it wrong is saying it’s wrong without equally strong evidence.
You know like we know that Einstein’s SR/GR is true …. until we have evidence it isn’t?

ToneB,
When i want trollish lies and sophistry, i shall be sure to address my question to you.

Most of the regulars here are well familiar with the null hypothesis, and who has the burden of proof when making the assertion that CO2 is the thermostat of the atmosphere.
Most are well aware that if there is a CO2 influence in temperature, it must be very low, and insignificant compared to preexisting fluctuations (i.e., What would be happening if there was no additional CO2 being added to the atmosphere).
Most are well aware that the GCMs have been falsified, and most every prediction and scary promise of future disastrous effects based on them has failed to materialize.
Plainly spoken, the people that believe CO2 is going to cause problems for human endeavors have been wrong about everything they have said would happen. In fact, about the only thing in politically motivated climate science that can be asserted with anything like 95% confidence is that whatever warmistas say will happen, will not happen, and most of the stuff they say has already happened is hogwash (Ocean acidification, accelerating sea level rise, unprecedented rates of warming, lowest polar ice in umpteen gazillion years, or just about everything bad to ever happen or be imagined, including these: http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm ).
We are all still waiting for any warmista to respond the DB Stealey challenge: (I am not as eloquent or able to clearly enunciate the exact wording, but it is basically the following) Show us a direct measurement or experimental result which demonstrates the assertion that CO2 causes warming of the atmosphere over time.

Nick,
“It isn’t just a one-time amount of heat that thunderstorms can get rid of.”
Of course I do not have to point out that thunderstorms are not a one time event. The hotter the atmosphere when the storms begin, the more energy is available and the more heat is transported to the upper atmosphere.
Heat in the atmosphere is displaced from the tropics to the poles over time, and from the surface to the top of the atmosphere. Convection in general tends to counteract any increase in surface thermal energy, as it will become more vigorous and efficient at transporting energy when the surface warms. And the mechanisms that cause poleward movement of heat will transport more energy when there is more heat to move.
And then there are clouds…
But anyone making such a claim that higher CO2 will lead to ever higher temps must explain why it is that the ice core records show temp begins to decrease while CO2 is high and still rising, and that temps begin to increase when CO2 is low and still decreasing.
This pattern is direct evidence that CO2 does not control atmospheric temps.
Further compelling evidence lies in the long term geologic record, which shows no correlation between CO2 and temps, even when CO2 is ten times higher than it is now.
Of course, this entire conversation (over the past several decades) is mostly only interesting or important from the point of view of general knowledge. The whole idea that CO2 rising is bad and costs us all in the end is not only not proven, it was never addressed, and no one ever explained why anyone should disregard what has been known for a very long time…humans do very well on a warmer Earth, and fare poorly when it is colder on the Earth. This is proven by thousands of years of human history.
Hundreds and hundreds of millions of people live and thrive in the hottest regions of the Earth, and always have. A person can live indefinitely in the hottest locations on the planet completely naked, if that person has sufficient water. The biosphere explodes when temps are high, and does even better when CO2 increases.
Cold, on the other hand, kills everything graveyard dead. In the coldest locations and time periods on Earth, an unprotected person would be dead in minutes to at most a few hours. With highly specialized clothing, a person could survive these places for a day or two before perishing. To survive for any length of time, a person needs adequate shelter and a large store of food.
We live on a planet which is nowhere too hot for life to thrive, but which has enormously large areas of perpetually frozen and quickly fatal wasteland, and vastly more so which is equally fatally frigid on a seasonal basis.
We are in a rare and short window of interglacial warmth, which has allowed humanity to flourish. This interglacial could end at literally any time, given what we know about what causes these conditions.
Such a return to full blown glaciation will be a calamity of unimaginable horror, with billions likely to die…and yet we spend monumental amounts of time and money making up lies, corrupting on an institutionalized basis the scant real data we have managed to collect, and telling our children horror stories which rob them of happiness and truth…all based on the idea that a warmer world is a bad thing, and that we can and must control and prevent warming!
I know where I would rather be, and what the real catastrophe will or would be. Tell me why anyone should want more of this:
http://image2.redbull.com/rbcom/010/2013-10-09/1331614928077_13/0010/1/1500/1000/13/polar-wasteland.jpg
http://goista.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/The-Antarctic-Peninsula-Anything-But-A-Wasteland.jpg
instead of more of this:
http://img.wallpaperlist.com/uploads/wallpaper/files/tro/tropical-island-wallpaper-1920×1080-530f3b1a15ae0.jpg
http://www.arts-wallpapers.com/travel_wallpapers/Tropical%20Paradise%20Wallpapers/images/kaneohe_fish_pond_oahu_hawaii.jpg
http://img.xcitefun.net/users/2011/07/257235,xcitefun-amazon-rainforest-3.jpg
?

Mods., can you check for a comment I posted which is awaiting moderation?
Thanks

Well notice that it says “Rate of change” of Mauna Loa CO2 data. That’s a process generally known for greatly amplifying random noise in systems. Integration does the opposite and smooths out variations.
So we take the DERIVATIVE of the CO2 data at a SINGLE POINT (ML) and we compare that to the GLOBAL INTEGRAL of the entire satellite observable lower troposphere, and we CLAIM these two are RELATED.
What total bull shit (scientific term).
We now KNOW FOR SURE (from OCO-2) that globally COP2 is NOT well mixed to a degree where the derivative of the measurements at a SINGLE POINT would correlate with the NTEGRAL of a near complete GLOBALLY scanned average measurement.

Menicholas:
ToneB,
When i want trollish lies and sophistry, i shall be sure to address my question to you.”
Yep that reply fits your MO all right , and pretty much par for the course on here.
The fact that I give science with links to same, matters not of course.
Merely that you disagree with it.
FYI: a troll is not someone who disagrees with you – it is someone who merely had-waves that for arguments sake
Oh, and if you genuinely do want to pose a climate/meteorology question to me – feel free.
I generally find though that that is the last thing most denizens here do.
They will get answers from science they do not agree with of course.

Tone B
Get real.
For one thing, I only said you give responses that are troll-ISH. 🙂
I try to be precise.
For another, my question was addressed to a specific person.
Because I wanted to engage Mr. Stokes.
Perhaps you do not remember me, but I remember you.
I have never had a single productive conversation with you.
Global dimming? Feh! Not worthy of response. Up your game, me laddie.
Linking to Wikipedia on a climate subject?
Laughable.
Last twenty years of pause, while CO2 rise accelerates, explained away by bland reference to a natural oscillation?
Sorry, but not only did I stop keeping track of the explanations before the full sixty-some-odd separate and mutually exclusive lame excuses were invented, but I know enough to know that if a natural cycle can counteract rapidly rising CO2 concentration, there is nothing to worry about.
Read up on sophistry.
You aint the only one with an edumacation, ya-know?
A word of advice…there is a new sheriff in town, and you may want to start a move to getting real about the crap you spout.
You are a dedicated warmista, and the religion you espouse is about to become a dark stain on a resume.
Adapt accordingly.

Tone B,
Just another point, in case you did not notice you were doing it: Your position amount to saying that when temps are going up, it is because of increasing CO2, but if temps are going down or are flat, there are logical explanations based on natural cycles or events which explain those trend, but which are transient and will not matter in the future.
Oh, and the past two years (caused by a natural cycle which has not even completed its downward leg!) proves it was always CO2.
I have no idea how a seemingly smart person can delude his- or herself with such inane doubletalk.
Are you even dimly aware of how much information you are sealing off from your mind in order to maintain the cognitive dissonance that you are experiencing? (If you indeed believe what you say)

Nick,
Nope. The cooling oceans did outgas less CO2, but the small reduction was more than compensated for by increased postwar human emissions. The fact that the rate of increase of CO2 sped up slightly after the PDO shift of 1977, without a corresponding increase in emissions, suggests that warmer oceans did contribute more to the total accumulation. But the slight temperature increase since 1977 probably owes more to clearer skies than to higher man-made CO2 levels.

I have to agree with Nick here. This is a terrible article, one of the worst ever posted at WUWT. Everyone knows short term seasonal variations in CO2 will follow temperature rises and falls. But long term, that’s not what’s happening, so it’s irrelevant. It says absolutely nothing about whether increasing CO2 can have a warming effect on the atmosphere one way or another.

And so we come to the fallacy that drives nick stokes the it trapped by co2 does not cause a build up of heat.
Once you have freed yourself of this falsehood all will become clear…….good luck letting go and witnessing the facts

Mencholas:
Just another point, in case you did not notice you were doing it: Your position amount to saying that when temps are going up, it is because of increasing CO2, but if temps are going down or are flat, there are logical explanations based on natural cycles or events which explain those trend, but which are transient and will not matter in the future.
Well, yes in essence, that is what I am saying, because it is what science is saying.
Really sorry you don’t like that.
The Earth is storing heat because less is escaping via LWIR than the Earth receives via SW from the Sun.
We know that via TOA measurement, and via quantification ( OHC ) of heat stored in the oceans (93% of climate heat). That imbalance did not stop during Monckton’s pause.
There is the rising trend of GHG driven warming that gets modulated by natural variation. Chief among them PDO/ENSO – the chief reason for the *pause* along with weaker forcing than was projected by the GCM’s.
So natural cycles do modulate GMST’s, but note the run of -ve PDO/ENSO regime should have cooled the atmosphere not merely arrested the warming.
Where’s the heat coming from then, if not held in by anthro CO2?
It is a core of this blog and others of it’s kind that it is ABCD
Anything But Carbon Dioxide.
It’s not the Sun, or undersea heating – all that’s left is “it’s not happening” or it’s CR’s and the clouds.
“Are you even dimly aware of how much information you are sealing off from your mind in order to maintain the cognitive dissonance that you are experiencing? (If you indeed believe what you say)”
Now that is funny …. pot calling the kettle.
Sorry to pull *authority* on you my friend but I worked for the UKMO in my professional life, having trained in science/engineering and never post here if unsure without first consulting the peer-reviewed science.
I come her to read what you call the *science* “I am shutting out of my mind”.
Can you say the same?
Do you read the IPCC science as reported in the likes of SkS?
Do you read the papers I or Nick or Griff or Leif link to?
Considering the IPCC AR’s are based on empirical science going back ~ 150 years and most of yours is mythical that comes around ad nauseum on here as though the IPCC “consensus” had not looked at it and dismissed it decades ago – makes your statement one that echos deep out of the rabbit-hole.
Just consider one expert here who you (no doubt) dismiss – as your type of *sceptic* has particular contempt for such experts – where would threads concerning “it’s the Sun stupid” end up were it not for his ( Lief Svalgaard)s input?
Another thing – I do not post on here to convince you or any other regular denizen who comes here merely to give hugs and kisses to the likes of Willis and Bob, and Ball etc. You are unreachable. It’s an ideological psychosis. And before you say mine is – can I say that I voted for Brexit and am in no way a *lefty*.
I come here because I know much of what I read is either post-truth, as in the squewed graph at the top here, or the Dragon-slaying “there’s no GHE” and “it’s only 0.04% of the atmosphere”
Ignorance should be denied. That’s my motivation.
Que outraged indignation.

David Middleton
December 18, 2016 at 4:33 am
Thanks for that information.
I’ve wondered how reliable pCO2 estimates derived from ice cores can be.

Nick,
Relentless postwar rise is what the Law Dome data show, as below. David’s link appears to differ from the conclusion drawn from these data (spelling corrected; “AD” should also precede rather than follow the year number):
https://www.co2.earth/co2-ice-core-data
“1,000 Years CO2 Data (papers: 1989-1997)
“Three ice cores drilled at Law Dome, East Antarctica from 1987 to 1993 resulted in atmospheric CO2 records from 1006 A.D. to 1978 A.D.
“The records extend into recent decades for which instrument measurements of atmospheric CO2 levels occurred. This was enabled because of the high rate of snow accumulation at the Law Dome drill sites. Scientists reported that the air enclosed in the three ice cores have unparalleled age resolution.
“Uncertainty in the data is 1.2 parts per million (ppm). Pre-industrial CO2 levels range from 275 to 284 ppm. Lower levels occurred between 1550 and 1800 A.D. These ice cores show major growth in atmospheric CO2 levels in the industrial period except 1935-1945 A.D. when levels stabilized or decreased slightly.”
If these data are to be credited, the Depression and war slowed CO2 growth despite the generally warm WX in the interval 1935-45. If the paper cited by David be correct, then the stabilization continued into the early postwar period as well.

Nick Stokes said, December 17, 2016 at 2:33 am:

Then there is the slow effect of CO2 blocking outgoing IR. That causes accumulation of heat on a decades scale.

Not according to the AGW “hypothesis”, Nick. The slow, gradual increase in atmospheric CO2 is specifically NOT supposed to give rise to an “accumulation of heat on a decades scale”. Because it is all supposed to happen incrementally, and so as the extra increment of CO2 input reduces the outgoing IR a tiny bit, the temperature is forced to rise a tiny bit, and by that letting the Earth system rid itself of the energy that was initially held back, RESTORING THE HEAT BALANCE at each incremental step. The next increment of CO2 input arrives, forcing T to rise a tiny bit more, restoring the balance once again. And so on and so forth. What we will OBSERVE over time, then, is a stable radiative balance at the ToA (SW in = LW out) with NO net accumulation of energy (not “heat”, internal energy) in the Earth system, but with a steadily rising Earth system temperature all the same. How is this? Earth’s “effective radiating level” (ERL) is raised, not in giant leaps (as if the atmospheric CO2 content were doubled overnight), but slowly and gradually over time, maintaining a constant Earth T_e to space, but forcing the T_s to rise (via the lapse rate). THAT’S the postulated “greenhouse” warming mechanism, after all:
http://www.climatetheory.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/greenhouse-effect-held-soden-2000.png
And so, observing a positive radiation imbalance at the ToA is specifically NOT a sign of an “enhanced GHE”, but of something else. And this “something else” is of course – as the ToA radiation flux data shows us – an increase in ASR (“absorbed solar radiation”), the solar heat input to the Earth system:
(ERBS and ISCCP FD; top: reflected SW; middle: OLR; bottom: net ToA radiation; tropics.)
(ERBS (red) and ISCCP FD (black) vs. models (multicolours), reflected SW inverted (bottom) to show gain, plus scaled TSI (top), together making up the solar input (ASR) to the Earth system; near-global (60N-60S).)

Nick, you wrote:

”Because it is all supposed to happen incrementally, and so as the extra increment of CO2 input reduces the outgoing IR a tiny bit, the temperature is forced to rise a tiny bit, and by that letting the Earth system rid itself of the energy that was initially held back, RESTORING THE HEAT BALANCE at each incremental step.”
Yes, that’s all true.

So why did you claim the following?
“Then there is the slow effect of CO2 blocking outgoing IR. That causes accumulation of heat on a decades scale.”

But there is an accumulation of heat, which flows into the oceans, rather slowly. That is what keeps radiation balance at TOA on the side of retaining heat. Less goes out than comes in; the balance goes into the ocean.

Yes, and this ToA imbalance (and thus the net accumulation of energy inside the Earth system over time) is caused by an increase in the heat INPUT from the Sun, NOT by an “enhanced GHE”. As I showed you above 🙂

@Toneb

if you genuinely do want to pose a climate/meteorology question to me – feel free.

How can you seriously expect me to believe that climate sensitivity to CO2 GHG effect can be more than 1ºC per doubling of CO2? When your side have been wrong with all your speculation. When it might very well be only ½ºC per doubling of CO2, or less? Don’t you feel guilty for preferring speculation to science, for costing humanity trillions of dollars in unnecessary measures to replace working systems with “clean energy“? When this focus on CO2 as evil and pollutant means less energy for those in developing regions at a time they need more energy to improve their quality of life.
I hope you like my climate/meteorology questions.

It tells me nothing because the temperature record has been so corrupted you can’t believe it.

R Babcock,
Exactamundo!
But, the times they are a-changin’.

Note that it has been clearly shown that the sum total of all the alterations to the historical climate data records matches the graph of atmospheric CO2, proving that the alterations are a fr@udulent effort to make the temperature records match the rise in CO2.
It is no surprise that if you change one set of numbers to match the trend in another set of numbers, that the trends in the two sets will match!
The data has now been tortured for so long, it is telling warmistas exactly what they want to hear.
http://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2016-01-14-04-18-24.png
http://realclimatescience.com/all-temperature-adjustments-monotonically-increase/

http://realclimatescience.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2016-01-14-04-18-24.png

Simon,
It tells me that BEST is no better than the rest.
All the “surface data” sets are works of science fiction, if not fantasy.
“Climate science” isn’t science and isn’t about the climate.

Toneb,
No probability involved. It’s a fact that all so-called surface data sets have been burned beyond recognition. The data’s own mothers wouldn’t know them.
“Climate science” is a thoroughly corrupt exercise, with no relationship to actual climatology.

Nice graph, what facts can be derived from it?
http://www.oarval.org/ClimateChange.htm
How many similar events, or even more warming, have happened over the Holocene?
How and why are the last 250 years of temperature concerning?

Better link for graph
http://www.oarval.org/Foster_20k.jpg

Monotonously? I assume you mean monotonically
: > )

Personally, I liked monotonously better 🙂

Juan,
That shows me!
But the alleged increase is monotonous as well as monotonic.
Which is in itself and interesting fact. If it is a fact. Since the rate of growth hasn’t changed much despite more people and industry since 1945, the carbon sinks must not be saturated yet, whatever and wherever they may be.

Not Griff, but tony has stated in another thread that CO2 “retains” heat.

You’ve repeated that 5 times now Patrick.

Did you actually read my question Robert or is your knee jerking?

nuh knees jerking , but that just happens to be my bs alarm .
You claim it wasn’t supported by the evidence , but you fail to support that claim with evidence which was the crux of what I was trying to say .
So now we know you’re not Griff but just another time wasting troll with cranial rectal disorder !

“tony mcleod December 17, 2016 at 12:36 am
You’ve repeated that 5 times now Patrick.”
Yep. The fact you stated CO2 “retains” heat demonstrates you have no idea what you are talking about. You are the sort of scientifically illiterate person one of which once quoted to me that methane has, and I quote, “four carbons”…
If you can demonstrate CO2 actually does TRAP HEAT as you claim I will retract my statements, apologise and refrain from responding to your, quite frankly stupid, posts.

“You… once quoted to me that methane has, and I quote, “four carbons”…”
Patrick you are mistaken.

“tony mcleod December 17, 2016 at 6:23 pm
“You… once quoted to me that methane has, and I quote, “four carbons”…”
Patrick you are mistaken.”
Puhlease! I did not say you, I said some as scientifically illiterate as you.

Thank you! Skankhunt42, er, I mean Griff, is the troll of trolls!!!!

Can we have the thermometer used for all those years to check its accuracy? We’ll deal with the CO2 measuring instrument used in due course.

To Tony McLoud 12/1716 @ 12:53am
The scale used in your chart is inappropriate to show the actual CO2 – temperature relationship found with ice cores — so it is misleading.
In finer detail, using ice cores, the temperature peaks led the CO2 peaks by 500 to 1,000 years.
That is the only known relationship of CO2 and temperature with real data (data from outside a laboratory).
Based on the work of scientists who study real things (rather than playing climate computer games) Earth has had higher CO2 levels than today most of the time in the past 4.5 billion years.
There is no evidence of runaway warming from CO2 levels up to 10X or 20X the 400 ppmv level today.
The fact that we are here today debating tenths of a degree of average temperature is more evidence that there has never been runaway warming on our planet

The vast majority of these “temperatures” antedate invention of the thermometer in the 17th century.

Eric,
First, not the topic of this thread.
Second, neither Trump nor Tillerson are going to read your post and clarify anything for you here.
Third, a Republican President is not going to keep a Democrat Secretary of State, especially one as inept as Kerry.
Fourth, the President is never going to please everyone no matter who he picks. And he doesn’t have to. Get over it.

Aphan It was relevant to my previous post that was a reply to Joel. But that post is apparently stuck in moderation, though for some reason it may be lost in spam.
Also, I think you could realize that my point of “we might as well stick with Kerry as SoS” was satirical, if that’s the right word. It’s wasn’t quite serious, but rhetorical to make a point.
Plus, you said that Trump nor Tillerson will not read this: how do you know? I hear that Trump reads WUWT. More importantly, if you understand how the blogisphere works, I’m just one commenter out of potentially thousands that echo each other and eventually the word DOES get through to the relevant political figures.

Trump could partially satisfy Tillerson by submitting the treaty to the senate, but without his endorsement.

Not to worry…I have solid information that Trump knows how to fire people who are not onboard with his plans.

correcton, not that anybody evidently cares. Per IPCC figures, 5.35 rather than 2.04 should be used, erroneously computed log base 10 rather than ln,
Assuming a 20 ppm increase in CO2 over 10 years,
with an original average surface wattage of 390.7 per square meter, using Trenberth’s figures, a 10 year increase in wattage to 5.35 LN(420/400) = an increase of 0.261 watts over that 10 years, and a temperature increase from 288 K to (288 K)*(390.961/390.7)^0.25
for a temperature increase over that 10 years to 288.000166 K, still insignificant.

So you model a climate sensitivity for CO2 doubling = 0.375ºC. What does Trenberth have to say about that? Or do they not speak to you. Are you persona non grata too.

“Yes you need to choose the scale that fits with the whole record….”
That is the problem, who gets to “choose”. Hockey Stick Mann? That is the false fallacy I am speaking of. With the right scale and smoothing one could prove the increase of taco restaurants in the USA and temperature increase are correlated.

Your first graph compares absolute ppm CO2 against a temperature anomaly with a specific base period and a scale of 10ths of a degree. I suppose anyone could change either of those and produce a totally different graph that would be to their liking.

“That is the problem, who gets to “choose”. Hockey Stick Mann? That is the false fallacy I am speaking of. With the right scale and smoothing one could prove the increase of taco restaurants in the USA and temperature increase are correlated.”
No it wouldn’t.
Take any up-to-date global temp record you want and plot it against CO2 concentration, such that the scales are maximised to depict equal slopes (eg a flat one where temps were stable prior 1800).
NOT – as the OP has done to minimise it and hide the fact that if a longer period were shown it would be evident that the y-axis was stretched on the CO2 graph.
“Your first graph compares absolute ppm CO2 against a temperature anomaly with a specific base period and a scale of 10ths of a degree. I suppose anyone could change either of those and produce a totally different graph that would be to their liking.”
Not and get the same slopes.
You have to maximise the likeness to see it.
That is not fraudulent.
It simply scales temp response to CO2 concentration.

It’s not tacos causing the warming, not CO2 nor cow farts.. It is leprechauns
https://postimg.org/image/6zknzc5el/

What you are showing is a mere vague resemblance, but the dips and crests do not match at all. All it shows is the two series moving in the same general direction, which is a 50/50 coin toss.
When you get everything matching up, in every nook and cranny, then you have something. And, that is what we have with the temperature and rate of change of CO2.
http://i1136.photobucket.com/albums/n488/Bartemis/nopause_zpscjndrosf.png

Toneb December 17, 2016 at 8:09 am
Tom in Florida said: “Your first graph compares absolute ppm CO2 against a temperature anomaly with a specific base period and a scale of 10ths of a degree. I suppose anyone could change either of those and produce a totally different graph that would be to their liking.”
Your reply: “Not and get the same slopes.”
But isn’t that the problem? If you changed your temperature anomaly base period to 1980-2010 and keep everything else the same, are you saying the slope of that change would be the same?

In the first graph, the blue does not represent temperatures prior to 100 years before present. That is part of Mann’s Trick (I would never patch proxies to thermometers). Those are proxies based on a a single tree (Bristlecone Pine) which are not true readings = faulty graph.

Useless. If you plotted it against the stock market index, you would find just as great a correlation. All it tells you is they are both moving up.
Try matching every up and down movement as well as the trend, as I show above with temperature anomaly and CO2 rate of change. Now that’s a meaningful correlation!

If you plotted CO2 against temperature from 1940 to 1977, the two trend lines would not only not correlate, but move in different directions. While CO2 was rising, GASTA would be falling.
Similarly, if you plotted only from 1998 to present, CO2 would be rising while GASTA at best was flat.
So there is no correlation, except accidentally between c. 1977 and 1997.

Yes, there are natural variations superimposed on the CO2-driven global warming signal. If you smooth them it looks like this:
http://woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/mean:720/plot/hadcrut4gl/mean:360/plot/esrl-co2/scale:0.0065/offset:-2.09

Utterly meaningless.

Bart, here is the problem with your correlation between CO2 and T: http://woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/offset:-300/trend/plot/esrl-co2/derivative
.
.
You see, the derivative removes the trend in CO2.

So what? When you integrate the derivative, you retrieve the original series.
It is not the trend in CO2 that nails temperature as the driving agent. It is the trend in dCO2/dt, which is the same as the trend in the temperature series scaled to match the variation.
http://woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/derivative/mean:24/plot/hadcrut4sh/offset:0.45/scale:0.22/from:1958/plot/esrl-co2/derivative/mean:24/trend

Bart all your relationship shows is that the NOISE in the CO2 signal is correlated with the temperature ANOMALY nothing else. Being that it is a mere correlation, there is no indication which variable is independent and which is dependent.

Bart says: “you retrieve the original series.”
…
No, actually you do not, because when you integrate the constant of integration is arbitrary Do you remember Calc 101 ?

The variability is not “noise”, but yes, it is highly correlated between the series. So is the trend. When you scale the data to match the variability in T and dCO2/dt, you also match the long term trend (see the above link).
The argument is thereby not dependent on any assumed integration constant, or any bias offset in dCO2/dt integrating into a trend. It is based on the match between A) the variability and B) the long term trend in dCO2/dt, which integrates into a quadratic term in total CO2. Both of these components are matched by a single scaling constant. The odds of that happening by happenstance are essentially nil.

Bart:
.
1) You are using SH data and not global data.
.
2) You lose the absolute level of concentration of CO2 when you integrate the derivative. That’s why the constant is call ARBITRARY
..
3) You say: “The odds of that happening by happenstance are essentially nil.” and I say your correlation doesn’t prove causation. So in essence, your relationship does not tell us which variable is independent, and which is dependent. Matching two wiggly lines provides no evidence of causality.

1) The SH data matches the satellite data best in the period of overlap, and the satellite data fit the model very, very well.
http://woodfortrees.org/plot/esrl-co2/derivative/mean:12/from:1979/plot/rss/offset:0.6/scale:0.22
The satellite data are more globally comprehensive, and not subject to the “adjustments” that have rendered the surface data suspect.
2) Doesn’t matter, as I am not hanging my hat on any arbitrary constants, but on the match of the long term trend in dCO2/dt with the trend in temperature anomaly, when the temperature anomaly is scaled to match the variation.
3) We know the direction of causality because the notion that temperature is driven by the rate of change of CO2 is absurd. Were that the case, we could see CO2 rise rapidly to very high concentration, but once it stopped, temperatures would revert to their initial values. Clearly, then, it is temperature that drives the rate of change of CO2, and not the reverse.

Bart says: “We know the direction of causality” No we do not. You commit the fallacy of a false dilemma in assuming only CO2 an T are involved in the correlation. You say one side of the coin is “absurd” therefore the other side is the only alternative. There could be a third, fourth or many other factors “causing” your wiggly lines to match up .
….
You claim that ” the notion that temperature is driven by the rate of change of CO2 is absurd.” However you are not comparing temperature to the rate of change of CO2. You are comparing the temperature anomaly with the rate of change of CO2, so please address how that is “absurd.”

Fine, if you want to split hairs:
3) We know the direction of causality because the notion that temperature anomaly is driven by the rate of change of CO2 is absurd. Were that the case, we could see CO2 rise rapidly to very high concentration, but once it stopped, temperature anomaly would revert to its initial value. Clearly, then, it is temperature anomaly that drives the rate of change of CO2, and not the reverse.
As for a separate process producing both, unlikely, but it does not matter. Either way, humans are not the major driving force.

Bart says: “unlikely, but it does not matter. Either way, humans are not the major driving force.”
…
Hand waving extraordinaire.

It is straightforward logic. The relationship is simply incompatible with humans being the driving force.

Stop calling your “correlation” a “relationship.”

Also Bart, because since your entire claim is a simple correlation, which does not show causation, you cannot logically exclude human influences.

Yes, I can. I’ve done my best to explain why. Keep watching as events unfold.

Bart says: “I’ve done my best to explain why.” Your “best” is a dismal failure. You have provided a correlation as evidence of causation. You’ committed the fallacy of false dilemma, demonstrated a lack of understanding the constant of integration, and waved your hands a lot.
.
Radiative physics offers a much more plausible causative explanation, and has evidence to support it. All you have is a couple of squiggly lines that appear to correlate.

Sorry, no. Radiative physics suggests that temperatures might depend on absolute concentration of CO2. It does not say there is a temperature dependence on the rate of change of CO2. That would lead to absurd inferences.

Bart, your correlation doesn’t explain anything. Radiative physics explains rising temperatures. Since you offer no explanation for what is actually happening in the physical world , your correlation has no value. In order to have value, you need to show a causative relationship. Try doing real science for a change.

For example Bart, your correlation could be explained with a third factor, namely volcanoes. They emit both CO2 and add heat energy via the liquid lava they expel. They could be the causative explanation for the correlation of your wiggly lines.

Again, sorry, no. The hypothesis of Earthly temperatures increasing as a function of increasing CO2 concentration does not explain why the rate of change of CO2 is proportional to temperature anomaly. You can’t square that circle.
I have offered explanations for what is happening in the real world. Scroll through the comments to find them.
And now, if you’re finished with your petty, childish insults, can we move on?

I have read all of your “explanations” and I have read all of Englebeen’s rebuttals. You lose, Ferdinand wins.

GallopingC: You may have “read” Bartemis’ comments, but you CLEARLY have not understood them. Your own mouth condemns you,

…need to show a causative relationship…

(GC)
For all Mr. Engelbeen’s efforts (and I am not demeaning him as a scientist, per se), he has NEVER proven causation. He has a guess. That is all.
For me, and Allan MacRae and many others, Bartemis “wins,” for his argument is based on accurate, real world observation-based, data processing analysis.

I will let history be the judge. The ultimate outcome really is not in doubt. This is actually a very simple and obvious problem.

Bart, if you think that someone pointing out your logical fallacies, your misconception of integration, and the uselessness of your correlating the noise of two signals as “petty and childish” I feel sorry for you. Your poor little ego will be crushed if you even attempt to get a paper past peer review.

Actually, it’s not just the high correlation (or, more incisively, cross-spectral coherence) between yearly average delta CO2 and yearly temperature anomalies that points to the latter as the driver of the former. It’s the behavior of the cross-spectral phase, which shows that variations of CO2 concentration invariably LAG variations of T at frequencies of high coherence. (Unfortunately, contractual commitments prevent me from showing the actual cross-spectral results here.)
BTW, the “constant of integration” for delta CO2 is determined by the FIRST value of CO2 concentration and the actual temperature is simply the sum of the anomalies and the constant mean over the entire record. Objections of “arbitrariness” of data treatment thus are empty.

Janice, all Bart has shown is a correlation. He has not shown causation. You know full well that correlation is different than causation.

1sky1, ΔCO2 and dCO2 are mathematically different things, and your choice of the constant being the FIRST value is ARBITRARY

The notion that dCO2, rather than delta CO2, is at issue when dealing with digital time-series gallops far away from the manger of reality. ANY such original series can be reconstructed EXACTLY by progressively adding the partial sum of first differences to the KNOWN first value.
Merry Christmas to all, and to all a good night.

No, GC. It is unique to match the integrated result with the original series.You were never scoring points in this regard, and you need to stop digging.

1sky1, direct your comments to Bart, as he does not talk about ΔCO2 at all.
..
Look at his comments December 19, 2016 at 10:02 am, December 19, 2016 at 10:57 am, December 18, 2016 at 11:43 am, etc……
…
He never talks about ΔCO2, he’s talking about dCO2

Bartemis:
We know the direction of causality because the notion that temperature anomaly is driven by the rate of change of CO2 is absurd.
All what you have proven is that there is a correlation between the variability of the temperature anomaly and the variability in CO2 rate of change, but that says next to nothing about the cause of the slope, because the variability and slope are proven caused by different processes.
Moreover by comparing temperature with the CO2 rate of change, you are comparing apples with oranges, as you have largely removed the origin of the slope in the CO2 rate of change: human emissions, which increased slightly quadratic over time, which gives a straight line in the derivative…
We know the direction of causality because the notion that human CO2 emissions are driven by the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere is absurd.

Terry Oldberg,
Mr. Engelbeen states that “empirical data conclusively reveals that CO2 has not caused temperature change over the past 38 years.”
I never said or implied that. Empirical data do reveal that temperature can not have caused the current increase of CO2 and that humans are to blame for the bulk of the increase. That is what I said and implied…
That is supported by all available observations:
http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/co2_origin.html
That humans are the cause of the CO2 increase doesn’t imply that there will be a catastrophic increase in temperature. In my opinion only a largely benign increase which together with the increase in CO2 will be beneficial for plants all over the globe…

“…because the variability and slope are proven caused by different processes.”
They aren’t.
“…as you have largely removed the origin of the slope in the CO2 rate of change…”
The trend is clearly visible, and it matches the slope in temperature. Human emissions are not needed to provide the trend. It follows that including them in is an unnecessary complication, and a violation of Occam’s Razor.

Dear Mr. 0ldberg,
You (unintentionlly, I realize) mistakenly attribute a quote by Mr. Dockery, the above article’s author, to Mr. Engelbeen. Lol, no wonder he made sure to pipe up! Heh. Mr. Engelbeen claims almost the exact opposite! 🙂
Re: proximate cause — it CAN be shown to be at least highly likely, i.e., not overwhelmed by another, controlling, driver.
Human CO2 emissions have NEVER been proven even “likely,” much less “highly likely” to cause a general rise in the surface temperature of the earth. It is all just a big guess (and there is anti-correlation data, now….). That CO2 has not been *conclusively* proven to lag temperature does not detract from the fact that there is much observation-based data (ice cores — with the damping equation applied) making the assertion that total atmospheric CO2 lags temperature by a quarter cycle a rational conclusion .
I think you and I largely agree, thus, some of what I wrote above was not so much directed at you as in making sure that what you wrote does not mislead someone trying to learn, here.
Thanks for taking the time to both inform and to affirm me above.
MERRY CHRISTMAS!
and HAPPY CHANUKAH!
Janice

Bartemis:
“…because the variability and slope are proven caused by different processes.”
They aren’t.
Bart, if you don’t accept any observation, then it is a fruitless discussion. If there is anything sure in climate science , it is that more CO2 uptake by plants increases the 13C/12C ratio in the atmosphere and reverse. Thus if CO2 and δ13C change in opposite direction, plants are the main reactant.
If you have another explanation based on the literature, I am all ear.
On the other hand, the slope of dCO2/dt is NOT caused by vegetation, as that is a small, but increasing sink for CO2 over longer periods, proven by the oxygen balance and chlorophyl measurements: the earth is greening..
“…as you have largely removed the origin of the slope in the CO2 rate of change…”
The trend is clearly visible, and it matches the slope in temperature. Human emissions are not needed to provide the trend. It follows that including them in is an unnecessary complication, and a violation of Occam’s Razor.
The trend is clearly visible, as good as the trend in human emissions: about twice the trend of the CO2 increase. Occam’s Razor (and every observation) points to human emissions as cause, hardly any place for temperature…

It’s a strange Occam’s razor that totally ignores the empirically manifest cross-spectral phase between delta CO2 (which is what Bartemis is really talking about) and T in order to maintain the AGW narrative.

“Bart, if you don’t accept any observation, then it is a fruitless discussion.”
It’s not the observations I don’t accept. It is your flimsy rationalization of what the observations mean.
“If there is anything sure in climate science , it is that more CO2 uptake by plants increases the 13C/12C ratio in the atmosphere and reverse. Thus if CO2 and δ13C change in opposite direction, plants are the main reactant.”
The second sentence does not follow from the first. It is like saying:
“If there is one thing sure in medical science, it is that viruses cause colds and colds are caused by viruses. Therefore, if you have a viral infection, you have a cold.”

1sky1,
It’s a strange Occam’s razor that totally ignores the empirically manifest cross-spectral phase between delta CO2 (which is what Bartemis is really talking about) and T in order to maintain the AGW narrative.
Not that strange: I am from the old engineering school, which was looking at the whole picture, not (only) at spectral analysis which nowadays explains “everything”.
Look at the total picture for the Mauna Loa period:
http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/klim_img/temp_co2_acc_1960_cur.jpg
There is a lot of variability in temperature, but that hardly shows up in the CO2 increase. The near perfect ratio between total human emissions and increase in the atmosphere is obvious. Between temperature and CO2 may be somewhat parallel, but with periods where there is an opposite relationship.
Now, what has Bart done: he compares the temperature with the CO2 rate of change. That is the largely detrended CO2 increase, thus he simply removed most of the increase to show that the more or less linear trend of temperature matches with the residual linear trend of the CO2 rate of change. That the latter is linear is the result of the slightly quadratic increase of CO2 in the atmosphere, obviously caused by the steady increasing accumulated human emissions. Thus Bart has effectively removed most of the cause of the CO2 increase in his comparison…
Moreover, CO2 levels go up and down with temperature with a lag, which can be seen if you enlarge the trend for both: some +/- 1.5 ppmv around the 70 ppmv trend for the extremes. That is all influence of the temperature variability and that zeroes out after 1-3 years.
Thus in fact you must compare T with CO2 and dT/dt with dCO2/dt. The latter is here:
http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/klim_img/temp_co2_der.jpg
Which makes it clear that the derivative of T has exactly the same waveform as T, but 90 degr. shifted back in time. And more important: zero slope, there is zero influence of dT/dt on the slope of dCO2/dt, only a very small offset from zero. The match of the slopes between T and dCO2/dt is completely spurious.
Why doesn’t spectral analyses give you the right answer in this case? The problem is that human emissions are all slope and very little variability, while temperature is all variability and little slope. With spectral analysis you overfocus on the variability, which in this case is not important at all for the cause of the increase…

Bartemis,
It’s not the observations I don’t accept. It is your flimsy rationalization of what the observations mean.
Bart, if you add CO2 from the oceans to the current atmosphere, then the δ13C ratio goes up. If you add CO2 from decaying vegetation, then the δ13C ratio goes down. Reverse if CO2 is absorbed by oceans or vegetation.
There is no rationalization which can change that.
The second sentence does not follow from the first.
Just handwaving without any base in isotope chemistry…

Ferdinand:
Coming from the old school of geophysical analysis, I recognize several
things that others may not:
1) The available length of record doesn’t necessarily determine any
underlying secular trend. The visual appearance of such may the result of
oscillatory signal components much longer in Fourier periodicities than the
record.
2) While spectrum analysis is by no means a panacea, it provides the most
general way of exploring the signal composition. It’s certainly far more
incisive and less limited than the primitive assumption of linear trend
plus random variability widely taught to undergraduates.
3) Non-specialists almost invariably miscomprehend the foregoing truths,
the proper methods of analysis and the potential insights provided thereby.
It’s a mistake to characterize the general effect of first-differencing as
preserving “exactly the same waveform,” while shifting the phase by a
quarter cycle. The actual transfer function is 1 – exp(iNOM), where NOM is
the normalized radian frequency, constrained to the baseband interval [-pi ,
pi]. See:
http://paloalto.unileon.es/ts/first/chapters/5fir/demos/tinvprop/fr1std.htm
It’s not really necessary–or practically possible in the strict differerntial sense that you write–to “compare T with CO2 and dT/dt with dCO2/dt.” Nor is it “the match of the slopes between T and dCO2/dt,” but the cross-spectral coherence that is of critical importance. And on that aspect of relationship between two time series, proper cross-spectrum analysis does not fail to give the right answer in any case, as you aver.
Unlike Bart’s take on the issue, it’s on the basis of the cross-spectral phase relationship between Keeling’s Mauna Loa CO2 series and a thoroughly vetted estimate of global average temperature that I dismiss CO2 as the potential driver of low-frequency variations (what you call trend)in temperature since the middle of the last century.

1sky1,
I agree that it is impossible to detect a secular trend in CO2, IF that was caused by temperature, as the time period since Mauan Loa is too short.
If we can agree that ice cores are of sufficient accuracy, then Bart’s theory has a huge problem. The overall CO2/T ratio over the past 800,000 years is ~16 ppmv/K, where CO2 follows T with a variable lag: ~800 years during warming towards an interglacial and several thousands during cooling after an interglacial.
On shorter time periods, the ratio is ~5 ppmv/K (seasonal), 4-5 ppmv/K (Pinatubo, ENSO), 8 ppmv/K (MWP-LIA) and now suddenly over the past 165 years >100 ppmv/K, while humans emitted over 200 ppmv in the same time span…
The resolution of all ice cores is good enough to detect such a “spike” in the record, be it with a lower amplitude for the worst resolutions, which span the longest period.
Some more theoretical and real life comment of mine at:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/11/25/about-spurious-correlations-and-causation-of-the-co2-increase-2/
It gets interesting from chapter 2.4 onwards…
With spectral analysis you have proven that dT/dt variability is the main driver for dCO2/dt variability, but as there is no slope in dT/dt, it is not responsible for the slope of dCO2/dt over time and only responsible for a small part of the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere, that is the above 4-16 ppmv/K, or about 10 ppmv of the 70 ppmv increase in the past 57 years…
Keeling’s Mauna Loa CO2 series and a thoroughly vetted estimate of global average temperature that I dismiss CO2 as the potential driver of low-frequency variations (what you call trend)in temperature since the middle of the last century.
As the time span since Mauna Loa is too short, you can’t conclude that CO2 has no influence on temperature. Anyway, I agree that the influence of CO2 on temperature is small.
My main point is reverse: the small temperature increase since Mauna Loa (or even since the LIA) can’t be the main driver of the CO2 increase in the atmosphere, only the main driver of the variability around the increase…

Ferdinand:
Not quite correct! What my cross-spectrum analysis shows is that temperature [sic!] variations are the driver of delta CO2 variations across a wide range of frequencies, including the multidecadal. This is not to say that the MEAN level of delta CO2 is driven by temperature. Indeed, the high mean level seems to be the result of human emissions, resulting in a pronounced trend in CO2 concentrations. Nowhere do I claim conversely that temperature is necessarily totally independent of CO2 levels.

1sky1:
What my cross-spectrum analysis shows is that temperature variations are the driver of delta CO2 variations across a wide range of frequencies, including the multidecadal.
Seems to be quite impossible to me, as you have two possible sources for the delta CO2 over decades: human emissions and temperature.
Human emissions show a near perfect correlation with delta CO2 over the past 57 years, or even the past 116 years (including ice cores), with twice the total emissions than the increase in the atmosphere:
http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/klim_img/acc_co2_1900_cur.jpg
Compare that to the multidecadal correlation between T and CO2:
http://www.ferdinand-engelbeen.be/klimaat/klim_img/temp_co2.jpg
A change of about half the scale in temperature gives some 2 ppmv extra CO2 in the atmosphere, but 100 ppmv over the full scale? Moreover, it is proven that near all variability in CO2 is the response of vegetation to temperature variability, while vegetation is a net, growing sink for CO2 over longer periods than 1-3 years. Thus different drivers at work…
Are you sure that the attribution program doesn’t attribute the multidecadal increase to the wrong variable?
Again the main problem may be in the fact that human emissions may have too little variability: that isn’t even detectable at Mauna Loa (less than 0.2 ppmv after half is absorbed by oceans and vegetation).

Ferdinand:
My attribution is certainly not to the wrong variable. You have to understand that the relationship at issue here is not what you show, but that between the yearly DELTA CO2 and T, akin to what was shown here by.
In proper cross-spectrum analysis the mean of both variables is removed, leaving only the VARIATIONS about the respective means. It turns out that the r.m.s. variations of delta CO2 are of the same order as the mean. While I attribute the sizable mean of delta CO2 to human emissions, the cross-spectral phase of the variations manifest by the data permits only the attribution of temperature variations as the driver of delta CO2 variations, not the other way around. You can’t have the putative physical driver lagging the response.

It should be stressed that I used Keeling’s Mauna Loa CO2 series along with a proprietary, vetted estimate of GAST; my cross-spectral findings thus are restricted to the time period 1958 onward. Also, to be entirely punctilious, it’s not that DELTA CO2 variations per se lag behind T variations that is the basis of my attribution. It’s that the residual CO2 variations [sic!] would lag behind measured T variations during that period.

1sky1,
I think that we largely agree that the variability in delta CO2 is caused by the variability of temperature, not the opposite way and that most of the offset of 1-3 ppmv/annum is caused by human emissions.
There may be a secular slope in CO2 caused by temperature, but that is maximum 16 ppmv/K per Henry’s law. Maybe you can use the longer time frame of two out of three Law Dome ice cores (DE08 and DE08-2) to expand the time period of interest to 150 years back in time, even when the CO2 data are smoothed over a period of ~8 years and are less accurate (~1.2 ppmv, 1 sigma) than Mauna Loa for the secular slope…
Still that doesn’t exclude a small influence of the increased CO2 level on temperature…

Sure 1998 would go off scale. This graph was just one data set. Combine it will 100’s of others, average it, smooth it, pound it into submission, then scale it to match two slopes, then and only then will you receive your grant money.
I was just making a point the graph had suspicious scaling, the same trick used by warmists.

The period from 1980 to present has shown a warming trend.
Which is said to be disastrous and the cause of all manner of future ills.
Prior to 1980, the trend was cooling for over 30 years.
Which was said at the time to be disastrous and the cause of all manner of future ills.
Interestingly, many of the claimed disastrous effects of both are identical!
It is a good thing it warmed up some…worldwide conditions for growing food and general survival have been improving.
It was durn cold in the 1970s!
Hey, how many people are going planning to spend some vacation time this winter in the polar regions, and how many are hoping and/or planning to visit places closer to the equator?

And that part is just untrue.

As it should be since the expected dependence is logarithmic, how many times more are we going to see junk graphs like Fig 2 posted on here. Let’s have some honesty and plot log(CO2).

Yes it has. Very conclusively. Bacastow studies allowed to elucidate the role of oceanic currents and vegetation on the seasonal CO2 cycle.
Bacastow, R. B. “Modulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide by the Southern Oscillation.” Nature 261 (1976): 116-118.
Bacastow, R. B., C. D. Keeling, and T. P. Whorf. “Seasonal Amplitude Increase in Atmospheric Concentration.” Journal of Geophysical Research 90.D6 (1985): 10-529.
The correspondence between the first derivative of atmospheric CO2 levels and temperatures is due to sinks response to temperatures. This issue has been beaten to death at WUWT and every other climate site. Everybody with a minimum knowledge at both sides of the debate agrees. It has nothing to do with global warming and it is a telltale for skeptics that haven’t done due diligence on their beliefs.

Nonsense. Vegetation is not producing the long term trend.
The entire record of CO2 change in the modern era can be reproduced from the temperature data only to high fidelity using a simple, affine parameterization. It is idiotic to imagine that, that is mere happenstance.

Bartemis,
Nonsense. Vegetation is not producing the long term trend.
Indeed, but vegetation IS producing near all variability. That is the problem with your theory… Mathematically still possible, but trend and slope are not caused by the same processes…

Re DWR54
**CO2 is a greenhouse gas that should, with associated feedbacks such as increased water vapour and reduced sea ice cover, force climate in a warming direction. The causative effect of CO2 should be to increase temperatures at the surface and lower atmosphere.**
There is no proven feedback from increased water vapor. Increased water vapor results in more cloud which reflects solar radiation resulting in cooling. YUour causative effect is an unproven theory.
.
**When all the world’s data sets, including satellite data sets, show a long term correlation between CO2 and global temperature increase, that doesn’t ‘prove’ correlation; but it is certainly evidence supporting the theory that CO2 is contributing to warming the atmosphere.**
The correlation is not very good, but NASA/NOAA are trying to make it better by adjusting the temperatures – note the graph posted above, as well as:
http://realclimatescience.com/alterations-to-climate-data/
It is not evidence, but only one thing to look at. There is too much annual and monthly variation in the temperatures to be caused by CO2. There are many other factors being considered such as changes in solar radiation , magnetism, changes in cloud and moisture.

True, but where there is known causative effect, then correlation is evidence supporting a proposition.

I accept that. But in this case causation works both ways. CO2 increases temperatures and temperatures increase CO2. However we know from the past that there is no runaway effect so feedbacks MUST be net negative or less than 1.
In the end we don’t know how much warming the increase in CO2 has caused, but since the 1910-1945 warming and the 1975-2000 warming are not very different while the CO2 difference is big, this suggests that CO2 warming, although noticeable, is not overpowering. The pause is also evidence that CO2 warming can be counteracted fully by natural forcings and variability.
And we have very strong evidence that warming was here before there was any change in CO2.
http://i.imgur.com/fa9yhHJ.png
So yes, CO2 surely warms, but no, that does not appear to be a problem. There is a very good chance that half or more of the warming is natural.

“solely due to a major ElNino”
Untrue, and obviously untrue with little more than a cursory glance at the graph. The last three major El ninos have been overlaying a background rise in temperature. So despite the 1998 El nino actually being a little stronger than 2015, the recent peak was higher. “solely” is incorrect.

Tony,
Whatever slight rise in background temperature may actually have occurred since the PDO flip of 1977 cannot be attributed to an increase in CO2. So many variables underlie such a small increase in global average warmth that any effect from CO2 “forcing” (man-made or not) must be too small to measure, even with assumed feedback effects.

Which is but one reason why the GIGO models have failed so epically.

Robert, calling Nick a troll doesn’t improve your grasp of radiative physics.

But the currently increasing would anyway outweigh the logarithmic effect.

Surely the opposite is true; the effect of each doubling halves until the effect is unmeasurably small and therefore imperceptible.

The logarithmic effect is not a step function. It is constant.

Physics and climate “science” don’t intersect. The concept of an average temperature doesn’t exist in physics. Physics also relies on traceability. If a voltage measurement is in dispute, the instruments used to measure it the voltage can be traced back to a lump of metal in Paris. The concept of traceability doesn’t exist in climate science. Everything is based on some dubious statistics with no traceability, endless adjustments and parameters (e.g. wooden versus steel buckets) and never ending disputes because of the lack of traceability.
No sane person would trust a climate “scientist” to send a man to the moon or even run a lemonade stand. Without a solid scientific basis that stands without argument, climatology is at the same level as homeopathy and astrology.
Einstein’s theory of gravity superseded Newton’s only when very high precision, repeatable and traceable measurements showed flaws in Newton’s theory. The high precision of modern GPS relies on Einstein not Newton. Predictions can be made and tested with extremely high precision such as the recent discovery of gravity waves.
Climate predictions other than seasonal such as winter will be colder than summer are possible, but predictions of any precision are impossible or untestable.

“climatology is at the same level as homeopathy and astrology.”
THAT good?
I seriously doubt it!

@gymnosperm
Could you help me out. I’m pretty convinced CO2 actually has a (small) cooling effect.
During daytime solar IR is absorbed by CO2 near 2000 nm.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunlight#/media/File:Solar_spectrum_en.svg
This means that a little less solar is reaching the surface than without CO2 => cooling effect.
During night time the surface cools,
How fast is the day time solar energy “stored” in the CO2 molecules lost to the surrounding atmosphere or directly to space.
I do assume a CO2 molecule “excited” to its max by solar is not able to be even more excited by the much weaker surface radiation.

@gymnosperm
Thanks for the link. So CO2 in the mesosphere intercepts solar IR around 2000nm and prevents it from reaching the surface (and heats the mesosphere)
Can the other absorption bands of CO2 do the same in the troposphere?
That is heat the troposphere during daytime, and radiate to space during the night.
I’m trying to get a feel for the mechanism that results in the troposphere temperature profile to shift roughly 1K from day to night and back. The surface cools much faster (and cools the lower few 100 meters atmosphere with it) since it can radiate directly to space (atmospheric window).
(I think I have uncovered the mechanism that explains our very high surface temperatures. (>90K higher than the moons) Role of the atmosphere is just slowing the energy loss to space. No warming of the surface required)

@gymnosperm December 22, 2016 at 8:17 am
“Back, forth, and every which way radiation is essentially nonexistent below 300 meters in these bands.”
I assume this is because the density is too high, and it’s mostly collisions that provide energy transfer?
(and evaporation near the surface)
To me this also means that during daytime it is mostly solar IR that is intercepted by predominantly H2O and a little by CO2. Surface IR is too weak then to matter much.

@gymnosperm December 17, 2016 at 6:37 pm
” If you look at Trenberth’s energy budget you will see 23% of TSI absorbed by the atmosphere.”
This whole backradiation idea (about twice as much backradiation as solar radiation) seems physically impossible to me. Unless I see a working backradiation panel harvesting this energy I can’t accept it as reality.
This diagram gives a more realistic energy budget:
We only have to explain how the surface got to ~290K.
Simple answer: by cooling down.
https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2014/03/03/ben-wouters-influence-of-geothermal-heat-on-past-and-present-climate/