First impressions from #AGU16 – A Manntastic Madhouse

As many of you know especially those of you who contributed to help get me here, I offer my sincere thanks. I’m covering the AGU Fall convention in San Francisco. The day dawned gray, it’s not an uncommon sight in the city

But it soon turned sunny and bright

Registration was light this morning. This may have been due to many people being delayed getting here due to the weather east of the Mississippi. I saw a news report that over 1900 flights out of Chicago were affected.

Along the way, I spotted this sponsorship sign, similar to ones I’ve seen in years past. Notably missing was Exxon-Mobil, though Chevron was there. This is odd, because there was a big AGU stinkeroo with #ExxonKnew earlier this year from climate activists about getting AGU to drop the Exxon-Mobil sponsorship. The board decided they’d keep it, and they were the subject of much derision from the leftists that make up the vocal climate wing of AGU.

So, apparently, AGU either caved quietly, or they were too stung with the derision to dare posting the Exxon-Mobil name as a sponsor on a big poster in registration., or on the 2016 Fall meeting website. Seems pretty hypocritical to me…unless, Exxon-Mobil decided to yank the sponsorship because they just got tired of putting up with a bunch of crybabies. Hopefully I can find out more. SEE UPDATE BELOW.

In other news, some familiar faces were seen being honored this year. Shaun Lovejoy, who has written a number of questionable climate papers gets a nod.

Naomi Oreskes gets the “Ambassador Award” which to me seems laughable, because all of my experiences with her reveal her to be closed minded, hateful, and intolerant. She tries to link climate skepticism with the Tobacco industry tactics, which I find highly objectionable, not just for the sheer stupidity of the argument, but for the fact that both of my parents died from smoking related illnesses. I think AGU erred grossly. In my opinion she doesn’t deserve the title.

And then there’s Richard Alley, who at AGU13, convinced governor Jerry Brown that sea level rise was a huge problem for California. Brown then proceeded to make all sorts of crazy claims, including that LAX would be underwater soon. He got a rude awakening on that one.

This was the scene in 2013:

Gov. Jerry Brown talks with Richard Alley just feet away from me.
Gov. Jerry Brown talks with Richard Alley just feet away from me.

One of Alley’s slides from 2013 shows a whole new level of imagination:

Alley_penguins

This billboard suggests that the “shifting landscape” may be a reaction to the election of Trump, especially since Katharine Hayhoe is speaking.

I attended this session this morning, with particular interest to the third presentation. I wondered how they might link climate variability in the southern hemisphere to ice sheet change in the northern hemisphere. Turns out it was just some proxies and models, and the magic word: teleconnection. I think that’s about as valid a word as “ESP”. In other words, no real evidence, just conjecture. I counted several question marks in the conclusion slide, which suggested the authors were reaching. Unfortunately, AGU still has the policy against photos in sessions, so I can’t demonstrate the slim evidence and conjecture they presented. Eric Steig was involved in the paper, ’nuff said.

Today and Tuesday, Michael Mann will give another Manntastic pitch over “attacks” on science while pitching his book. That should be entertaining.

agu16-mann-book-tweet2 agu16-mann-book-tweet

He’s got several sessions. The one on Tuesday says he intends to rally the press.

agu-mann-talks

At least there is free beer again this year.

P.S. Willis and I will be presenting at 1:15 on Wednesday. More on that later.

 

UPDATE: It seems Exxon-Mobil told AGU they weren’t interested any more. I missed this news from last week. Via Inside Climate News (h/t to Roger Knights)

Energy giant ExxonMobil won’t be a sponsor of the largest earth and space science conference for the first time since at least 2001.

It was Exxon’s decision not to provide any funding for the annual conference, which will be held next week in San Francisco, according to a blog post last week from the conference organizers, the American Geophysical Union.

This news follows a nearly year-long campaign, in which more than 60,000 scientists, activists and others urged AGU to not accept Exxon’s money because they say the company has contributed to the spread of misinformation about climate change. They argued that’s inconsistent with AGU’s mission, position statement on climate change and funding policies.

AGU’s board considered this issue twice this year, voting in April and again in September to keep Exxon as a sponsor.

The climate data they don't want you to find — free, to your inbox.
Join readers who get 5–8 new articles daily — no algorithms, no shadow bans.
0 0 votes
Article Rating
110 Comments
daveandrews723
December 12, 2016 11:07 am

What is your basic response when people tell you, “the science is settled. rising CO2 levels are and will continue to lead to dramatic rises in global temps” and all the severe consequences that will ensue?

Latitude
Reply to  Anthony Watts
December 12, 2016 11:16 am

+1…keep it up!

Reply to  Anthony Watts
December 12, 2016 11:42 am

That is hilarious. I get that from folks who disagree with me. I overwhelm them with actual facts, and links, and that annoys them. They prefer the feeling of “we’re doomed”.

Bob Hoye
Reply to  Anthony Watts
December 12, 2016 12:30 pm

American Geophysical Union meeting.
What a political zoo!
In 1950, the year 1957 was declared “International Geophysical Year”. It was well-publicized. Even the popular comic strip cartoonist Walt Kelly published “G. O. Fizzickle Pogo” in 1958.
I completed a degree in geophysics in 1962. Still have the book.
Then, some lecturers supported the idea that ice ages were caused by an open arctic ocean and a cold land surface. Others favoured Malenkovitch. There was not enough evidence to decide.
Then the data began to build and over the last decade the theory about cosmic rays an clouds has become convincing. Climate change is periodic and has little to do with CO2.
The AGU meeting should be celebrating evidence, not the notion that the climate needs to be controlled by a “smart” government.

george e. smith
Reply to  Anthony Watts
December 12, 2016 2:54 pm

In that first Mann-ifesto this afternoon, is the features ME, meaning thee or he ??
One would tend to think that the author is often featured in presentations, so no need to say so.
G

Phillip Bratby
December 12, 2016 11:15 am

I don’t know how you manage to put yourself in the position of being surrounded by so much failed science and BS propaganda.

PaulH
Reply to  Phillip Bratby
December 12, 2016 12:00 pm

Yeah, I think my head would explode — and even the free beer might not help! :-O

george e. smith
Reply to  Phillip Bratby
December 13, 2016 11:30 am

I learned something important myself this morning while having breakfast at McDonalds.
There was this chap dressed in a spivy top tier overalls, sporting a prominent TESLA logo, and a badge labelling him as TESLA Service Dept. A few blocks further down El Camino Real.
So I asked him (inquisitively) what was the battery voltage, for the battery in a TESLA Model S sedan. I would want to know if I was servicing a model S TESLA.
“Well we don’t rate it that way he said; we rate it by KW-hours; and it is 60-100”. “Voltage would be much higher than that. ”
No what I mean is if I put a voltmeter across the terminals what would I get ??
“A huge explosion he replied.”
Well what voltage is it. “Oh it is extremely high; 100,000 volts; no it’s a million volts. ”
So there you have it folks; straight from the expert’s mouth. A whole million volts hiding in your Tesla battery.
I guess they get their charging juice from the one million degree C interior of the earth.
G

December 12, 2016 11:20 am

Too bad there won’t be any video with question & answer time )-:

December 12, 2016 11:22 am

I think most likely Exxon continued support but asked not to be publicly acknowledged.

December 12, 2016 11:27 am

Thanks for a first report from the front lines. The Oreskes ‘ambassadorship’ sort of clinches the AGU political bent, as she was the main perp behind the ‘Exxon knew’ brouhaha that started with the ‘Merchants of Doubt’ meeting in 2012 at Scripps in La Jolla. And ExxonMobil conspicuously absent from sponsorship in consequence.

Reply to  ristvan
December 12, 2016 11:38 am

Speaking of Ambassadors, Exxon-Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson, a Texas Aggie civil enginneer to boot, might be the Kerry-Replacement-Unit (KRU).
That announcement (if it does happen) should pop the heads of a few more Watermelons in SanFran (and everywhere).

Reply to  Joel O’Bryan
December 12, 2016 11:39 am

Engineer

Reply to  Joel O’Bryan
December 12, 2016 12:09 pm

Sven, “Tvanty-sex years ago I could not even say ‘Enjinneer’ and now i are one.”
The old jokes are the best.

MarkW
Reply to  Joel O’Bryan
December 12, 2016 12:56 pm

I are a litrate enjineer.

Mark from the Midwest
Reply to  Joel O’Bryan
December 12, 2016 1:05 pm

I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s Trump running something up the flag pole to see who salutes. I’m sure Tillerson knows more than anyone about the political and economic climates in each of the countries where Exxon does business, but Trump is smarter than to throw a name into the ring that has the potential to slow down his progress in the first 100 days.

Catcracking
Reply to  Joel O’Bryan
December 12, 2016 2:35 pm

FYI ExxonMobil is a company run by Engineers of varying degrees who typically came up through the ranks and know the complications of the business. No room for jobs for the wall street financial crowd who know little about the technical side of the business.

December 12, 2016 11:28 am

Anthony, Willis,
While Hayhoe and Mann wet themselves over President-Elect Trump and the weather,
Here’s to you two staying dry with wx headed in.
http://i64.tinypic.com/vxeqac.jpg
http://i64.tinypic.com/xmsvnk.jpg

December 12, 2016 11:30 am

Anthony…you have to remember that the “green machine” is relentless they are not shamed by being caught manipulating data, they do not concede one iota of their argument with respect to the policy that we must follow to avert “catastrophe”. They wear folks down! Until people who shouldn’t be recognized for anything but their shrill political outlook become “ambassadors” for a scientific society. They certainly don’t care if you consider yourself a “responsible environmentalist” as far as they are concerned you are mucking up the narrative and need to be pushed in front of the bus.

Reply to  fossilsage
December 12, 2016 1:56 pm

Money talks.
When they can’t make a penny from their incantations, they will incant no more.

David in Michigan
Reply to  fossilsage
December 13, 2016 8:06 am

After reading your comment I could not help but be reminded of this movie quote:
“Listen, and understand! That Terminator is out there! It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop… ever, until you are dead! “

Reply to  David in Michigan
December 13, 2016 9:37 pm

David in Michigan you are so right. Hot Scot; money is only part of the deal. Ideology is everything,

Resourceguy
December 12, 2016 11:41 am

Ambassador Award to completely laughable and shameful. I’m glad I donated to Anthony in place of attending the rot. When is the alt-AGU conference with higher standards of professional conduct?

Michael Brown
December 12, 2016 11:43 am

Thank You For ALL Your Hard Work!

Reply to  Michael Brown
December 12, 2016 11:46 am

and also Thanks for fightin’ the good fight!

Mary Catherine
Reply to  Michael Brown
December 12, 2016 1:06 pm

I’ll second that!

Paul Westhaver
December 12, 2016 11:46 am

Anthony,
One of the “Fellows” you photographed is Lynn M Kistler, whom I know personally. She worked on the solar satellites (one of the lagrange point type) used to predict solar flare polarity and intensity. She was the project coordinator for the one that was destroyed in the late 90s when the launch vehicle blew up.
She is the person who pointed me toward the Sun as a significant contributor toward terrestrial climate.
I wonder what she has got to say at this gathering of leftists. Lynn is certainly left of center on a host of subjects but I did not think she was a CAGW advocate. Have you an up-to-date opinion on her opinion?

Reply to  Paul Westhaver
December 12, 2016 1:58 pm

Call her.

Paul Westhaver
Reply to  HotScot
December 12, 2016 5:57 pm

I’ll just drop by when she gets back. I was more interested in what Anthony thought.

Tom Halla
December 12, 2016 12:24 pm

The AGU meeting might be an opportunity to observe the mourning behavior of the green blob.

Joel Snider
December 12, 2016 12:24 pm

You’re a brave man, Anthony. I get nervous going into Portland by myself.

Eugene WR Gallun
Reply to  Joel Snider
December 12, 2016 1:10 pm

Joel Snider —
I live in Portland. You are almost perfectly safe if you don’t make eye contact with liberals. Wear a propellor beanie and a Bernie T-shirt if you head into the arts district.
Eugene WR Gallun

Reply to  Eugene WR Gallun
December 12, 2016 2:12 pm

Does the propeller beanie have to be made of tinfoil?

george e. smith
Reply to  Eugene WR Gallun
December 12, 2016 3:02 pm

I don’t go to Frankencisco for any reason.
To not attend the AGU love fest would be one of my better reasons for not going there.
I’d be too damn scared to run into Naomi Orestes, and be recognized.
You two behave yourselves up there now.
G

george e. smith
Reply to  Eugene WR Gallun
December 12, 2016 3:04 pm

When did Portland acquire an arts district ? They didn’t have one when I lived there.
But that was last century.
G

Ron Richey
Reply to  Eugene WR Gallun
December 12, 2016 4:03 pm

“When did Portland acquire an arts district?”
When spray paint became popular.
Ron Richey – Eugene

Bubba Cow
December 12, 2016 12:33 pm

Mann’s book signing is at Commonwealth Club of California where Michael Crichton was invited to speak a bit over 13 years ago –
https://www.cs.cmu.edu/~kw/crichton.html
“And so it is, sadly, with environmentalism. Increasingly it seems facts aren’t necessary, because the tenets of environmentalism are all about belief”.

co2islife
December 12, 2016 12:44 pm

@Anthony Watts, a few years ago AGU had a Panel Q&A Session. You should make sure some real skeptics are in the audience to ask questions. I would assemble a group, each armed with their best smoking gun question, and scatter then throughout the audience so they can’t be avoided. I would hit them with one after another uncomfortable question, and get their squirming on film.

co2islife
Reply to  co2islife
December 12, 2016 12:56 pm

Here is an example of one of the AGU Videos. Skeptics need to dominate the Q&A.
https://youtu.be/RG9SK6NYYss

Reply to  co2islife
December 12, 2016 12:59 pm

A question for M Mann: can you identify a single glaciologist who doesn’t take for granted a global LIA? –AGF

December 12, 2016 12:53 pm

Not enough beer in the world to get past the “train wreck” view you will be forced to look at over and over and over….my sympathies Anthony!

Janice Moore
Reply to  Aphan
December 12, 2016 12:56 pm

Aphan! I have missed seeing you for a long time! I hope all is well. I’ve been praying (well, when I get worried, I pray). Take care. Janice

Alan Robertson
December 12, 2016 12:57 pm

“At least there is free beer again this year.
P.S. Willis and I will be presenting at 1:15 on Wednesday.”
———————
Got one of those chicken wire screens to put in front of you? Flying beer bottles and such…

Steve Fraser
Reply to  Alan Robertson
December 12, 2016 1:31 pm

Knock ’em dead.
If you see any Scripts people, I would really be interested in whether to expect the Keeling curve to follow, or lead the temp change. So far, their pre-1958 proxy reconstructions (starting in1700) seem to be missing all the interesting changes of the LIA cold and recovery in the early 20th C, and the decline mid-century. I cannot look at this and see how CO2 is the global temp control knob.
https://l.facebook.com/l.php?u=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn.fbsbx.com%2Fv%2Ft59.2708-21%2F15307389_10154905593743117_1552988791877140480_n.docx%2FChristmas-Letter-2016.docx%3Foh%3Dde751648b6f929117dbd930c7a0be12d%26oe%3D585122A9%26dl%3D1&h=aAQGGQERS

Buck Wheaton
December 12, 2016 12:59 pm

Maybe next year, we can crowdsource a WUWT booth at the conference themed around the real-life replication of a non-compliant weather station, complete with air conditioner venting and trash barrel. The poster session could remind conference attendees of the number of stations that are still not compliant.

Janice Moore
December 12, 2016 1:00 pm

Here’s a little visual aid for you. Turn it into a poster and hold it up at appropriate moments. Better yet, make a digital slide of it and get it inserted into all the sea ice presentations. Heh.
http://www.utahpeoplespost.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/antartcitic.jpg
Bwah, ha, ha, ha, haaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!
And,
GO GET ‘EM, ANTHONY!
We are so proud of you.

george e. smith
Reply to  Janice Moore
December 12, 2016 3:09 pm

So Janice are you just trying out a nasty streak to see if you can pull it off ? I’ll pray for your redemption.
G

Monna Manhas
Reply to  george e. smith
December 12, 2016 6:52 pm

I would love to hear her BWAH HA HA in person.

Janice Moore
Reply to  george e. smith
December 12, 2016 8:28 pm

Heh, heh. Well, Monna, I wish I could do just that. You and so many WUWTers would be such a pleasure to meet (and to do a good ol’ belly laugh for — my voice is too high for it to really “work,” though, lol — I’m better “on paper”).

Reply to  Janice Moore
December 15, 2016 2:48 pm

Janice, is that Russian for Inconvenient Truth … it’s not stuck in ice is it ?

Lance Wallace
December 12, 2016 1:00 pm

Anthony, did you receive a memory stick or otherwise have access to the abstracts of the talks that you could make more widely available?

Carla
Reply to  Lance Wallace
December 12, 2016 8:44 pm

Lance Wallace December 12, 2016 at 1:00 pm
Anthony, did you receive a memory stick or otherwise have access to the abstracts of the talks that you could make more widely available?
—————————————————————-
Sign up Lance. The abstracts are made publicly available.
From the EPoster page select your area of interest, such as SPA-Solar and Heliospheric Physics. It opens a new link and displays a link to the talk and abstracts.
https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm16/meetingapp.cgi/Index/EPoster~1/Program/1191
Example, of a search for Dr. S., results.
https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm16/meetingapp.cgi/Person/50361
Abstract
SH31B-2548 The Olsen Rotating Dipole, Revisited
Leif Svalgaard
Wednesday, 14 December 2016 08:00 – 12:20 Moscone South – Poster Hall
https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm16/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/198508
Olsen (1948) and Wilcox & Gonzales (1971) reported evidence of a solar equatorial magnetic dipole with a stable (synodic) rotation period of 26 7/8 days maintaining its phase over 15 years (1926-1941, Olsen) and possibly to 1968 as well (1963-1968, Wilcox & Gonzales). Using a composite series of Interplanetary Magnetic Sector Polarities covering the interval 1844-2016 (derived from geomagnetic data before the space age and direct measurements during 1963-2016) we find that 1) the response of geomagnetic activity to passage (at Earth) of a sector boundary has been consistently the same in every solar cycle from 9 through 24, thus validating the inferred times of sector boudary passages over the past 173 years, and 2) the ‘Olsen’ dipole can be traced back the 16 cycles to the year 1844, albeit with a slightly different synodic rotation period of 26.86 days (431 nHz). Olsen ended his paper with “The persistence of a fixed period during 15 years points to the possibility that the origin of the effect is to be found in a layer on the Sun with a fixed rotation-period during a long time” and Wilcox & Gonzales noted that “A rotating magnetic dipole may be lurking within the sun”. We compare the Olsen-period with other evidence for rotation periods in the deep interior and for the existence of a relic magnetic field.

G. Karst
December 12, 2016 1:05 pm

I see no reason to “go along to get along”. One should still ask pointed questions ie Why after decades of research and billions in treasure, we have not narrowed CO2 sensitivity. One does not have to make waves but anything “real” will make ripples and ripples are all we need. My1.5 cents worth. GK

December 12, 2016 1:17 pm

Good luck to you and Willis in your presentation. I admire your persistence and thick hides in attending such a meeting. It must be a bit like wandering around a Nineteenth Century Insane Asylum. I am looking forward to more reports from the Inside.

TA
Reply to  nicholas tesdorf
December 12, 2016 2:16 pm

“It must be a bit like wandering around a Nineteenth Century Insane Asylum.”
Lol! Good one nicholas. I’m thinking “zombies”.

December 12, 2016 1:18 pm

Speaking of Michael Mann, I was just at Penn State last week. Nice place, lots of students…. Their basket ball team lost the game I went to see. Their hockey team wasn’t playing while I was there.

Steve Fraser
Reply to  Jeff in Calgary
December 12, 2016 1:33 pm

Mann took the stick with him…

H.R.
Reply to  Steve Fraser
December 12, 2016 2:07 pm

rimshot!

Reply to  Steve Fraser
December 12, 2016 3:50 pm

+1000
Now that’s funny.

Mark
Reply to  Steve Fraser
December 12, 2016 4:15 pm

Yes, it had a big kink in it half way down. He said he was going to fix it.

Man Bearpig
December 12, 2016 1:18 pm

Anthony, has Trump offered you the top job at NOAA yet? Or are you not allowed to comment on that yet?

bobl
Reply to  Anthony Watts
December 13, 2016 12:48 pm

I e-mailled Trump ages ago and asked him to give you the job of shuttering NASA-GISS. That’s a bit down the appointment list yet.

Janice Moore
December 12, 2016 1:19 pm

Seen any of these guys there?comment image
Heh, heh, heh.

Greg
Reply to  Janice Moore
December 12, 2016 1:56 pm

Guy on left is asking : what’s the difference between a Ferrari and and an errection ?
Climate science is SO exciting.

Reply to  Greg
December 12, 2016 10:20 pm

The erection keeps going longer between services?

Janice Moore
Reply to  Janice Moore
December 12, 2016 5:33 pm

I forgot to post the source of the above photo:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/05/26/how-not-to-make-a-climate-photo-op/
And the caption contest (non-obscene, by the way) was here: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/10/02/wheel-of-silly/

Reply to  Janice Moore
December 15, 2016 2:52 pm

Wheel of Data Changing

Bruce Cobb
December 12, 2016 1:28 pm

We can only wish Micky Mann would stop his decades-long attack on science. He has certainly done it grave harm.