NOAA forecasts major December cold blast for nearly all the USA

Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. Alerts me to this map from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center and says:

Cannot recall last time I have seen such a cold anomaly forecast across almost entire USA.

Neither can I, have a look:

UPDATE: This map from Dr. Ryan Maue of WeatherBell shows that over 75% of the USA will be below freezing for overnight lows on December 8th:


Dr. Maue writes:

CONUS average low temp of 17°F for Dec 8th according to ECMWF 12z is exceptionally cold — there will surely be record lows.




The only state not showing a cold anomaly is Hawaii, the southernmost parts of Florida and Texas are also spared.

The 6-10 day outlook shows the western half of the USA and Alaska in a deep cold anomaly:



Maybe it has something to do with the “cold blob” I pointed out yesterday?

The precipitation forecast shows the northernmost part of the USA as having above normal precipitation, which translates to heavier snow in the northern plains and northern Rockies, along with heavier snow in the Great Lakes and Northeast:




NOAA CPC description of these charts:

The 8-14 day Outlook gives the confidence that a forecaster has, given as a probability, that the observed temperature, averaged over upcoming days 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, and 14 will be in the range of one of three possible categories below (B), normal (N), or above (A). For any calendar 7-day period, these categories can be defined by separating the 30 years of the climatology period, 1981-2010 (30 years), into the coldest 10 years, the middle 10 years, and the warmest 10 years. Because each of these categories occurs 1/3 of the time (10 times) during 1981-2010, for any particular calendar 7-day period, the probability of any category being selected at random from the 1981-2010 set of 30 observations is one in three (1/3), or 33.33%. This is also called the climatological probability. The sum of the climatological probabilities of the three categories is 100%.

Graphical Information

The colored shading on the map indicates the degree of confidence the forecaster has in the category indicated, where “B” and blue colors indicate “below-normal” and “A” and orange-red colors indicate “above normal”. The darker the shading, the greater is the level of confidence. The numbers labeling the contours separating different shades gives the probability that the indicated category (A, B, or N) will occur.

The probabilities of all three categories are implied on the map, and sum to 100%. The forecast probabilities given on the map generally fall far short of complete confidence (100%) in any single category. When the probability of the above (A) or below (B) category is greater than 33.33% by some amount, the probability of the opposite category declines by that amount, while the probability of the middle category remains at 33.33%. In the event that the N category is greater than 33.33%, the probabilities of both the “A” and “B” categories is each reduced by 1/2 the amount that the “N” category exceeds 33.33%. When the probability of “A”, or “B” reaches 63.33% or higher, the odds of the opposite category reach a minimum allowed value of 3.33%, while the odds of the middle category are allowed to drop below 33.33%.

The dashed contours on the map give the average of the temperature over the set of 30 observations for the calendar 7-day period during 1981-2010, in degrees Farenheit.

296 thoughts on “NOAA forecasts major December cold blast for nearly all the USA

  1. Will the average guy or gal trying to pay the bills to keep the family warm and buy a few Christmas presents really care what the Arctic Sea ice extent is?
    Plus, those Dakota Access Pipeline protestors better get out their thermal underwear.
    Reality is such a kick in the groin to the climate hustlers.

    • Judging from the Sea Ice Reference page, it looks like all the related agencies are experiencing “technical difficulties”.

      • “Now is the time for our greatest expectations” – Now is the time for Mosser to pull his head …. And help Dr Curry post the new opportunities

      • “Judging from the Sea Ice Reference page, it looks like all the related agencies are experiencing ‘technical difficulties’”
        Too funny, lol! 😂

    • It is imperative that we increase the CO2 in the atmosphere…immediately. Now. We may all freeze and die. Send your $50 contribution to me…directly and I’ll make sure your generous contribution is spent where it will do the most good. Avoid the UN GC financial mandates.…..

    • Hopefully they’ll not wear cotton thermals. The physical activity associated with protesting should find them wearing polypropylene, polyester, silkweight man-made materials or wool.
      I wouldn’t want them to get cold bathed in their own sweat

    • Yes. Because the Arctic ice is the air conditioner of the world among other things. Also, most of the worlds oxygen comes from boreal forest and if the arctic is too hot, forest declines. less oxygen.
      So ff the average guy cares about working an outside job during the summer, having a manageable cooling bill in the summer, among other things, then he should care.

      • funny how globel warming stops in winter then continues in summer we used to call this great mystery seasons

      • About 80% of the world’s oxygen comes from the oceans.
        The next largest chunk comes from various rain forests in tropical parts of the world. The boreal forests are way, way down the list. Especially since things grow very slowly when things are cold.
        What makes you think a degree or two warmer is going to hurt, not help the boreal forests. Most of them are already at the cold edge of their climate ranges.
        Even the warmists admit that most of their predicted warming is going to come in arctic regions, in winter and at night. So your guy wanting to work outside has nothing to worry about.

    • “Plus, those Dakota Access Pipeline protestors better get out their thermal underwear.”
      I’ve lived in ND my whole life and never before have so many of us been praying for a brutally cold winter.
      I’m hoping we get a winter like the ones from the 60s that my parent lived through. (Back when Global Cooling was gonna kill us.)
      Snow drifting so high that you left the house through a second story window.
      My grandpa once left the bucket on the tractor raised up before a storm in case they had to crank start it. After the storm the only way they found the tractor was seeing the top of the bucket sticking out of the snow.

  2. Please understand this is not a forecast. Its a probability of an occurrence. That is not a metric one can measure. So when its says 60% chc below normal, is that 1 degree 5 degree , 10 degrees? Why is the large area of 40% colored blue. Because it is greater than the normal chance of below which is 1 in 3. Calling this a forecast is not accurate. It is the probability of an occurrence against some set standard deviation that changes from site to site. So if its 40%, does that mean a 60% that its normal or above.
    Granted this is GUIDANCE and I think its good guidance since it agrees with what followers of have been saying since it got very cold in Asia. But an actual forecast, like we have on our sites for clients. has to have TEMPERATURES in relation to normal. So the guidance is cold but its not a forecast. BTW some of the analogs we have been using to show people have had similar SST configuration to 1983 and 2000, both were coast to coast cold Decembers. Take a look at our daily update and even more important, take a trial on our site. Ryan Maues maps are worth it,

    • “Please understand this is not a forecast. Its a probability of an occurrence. “….
      All weather “forecasts” are simply guesses about the near term future of the weather..If a person doubts a 5 to 10 day forecast (which is likely to be somewhat correct), how could they trust a 100 year forecast from the IPCC ?

      • Forecasts are estimates assuming prevailing conditions (e.g. physical, chemical, thermodynamic) in a limited frame of reference (i.e. scientific).

      • The 100 year forecast is used because those making the forecast will be long dead by then. Besides no one will remember them, both the forecast and those who made them. This forecast is for today in order to scare politicians to enact far-left policies and supply Lots of money to the cause.

    • Seems to me if error bars around the measurements are fairly constant the probability has to be correlated with the deviation from the mean . It would be nice to see both the probability and the deviation it represented .

      • Probably doesn’t fit the global warming narrative. Can’t let facts get in the way of an evangelical fervor.

      • It’s wintertime folks. Things have been known to get a little chilly from time to time. Not to worry!!

    • Joe: thank you for your post. You answered all my questions about what the maps mean.
      In other words, it looks like more information than there actually is. But your post clarified their meaning greatly.

    • Thanks Joe, you saved me explaining that this is NOT temperature.
      That everywhere has a higher probability of being cooler than “normal”, raises the question of what “normal” is and what it is supposed to mean. Once upon a time this site used to rail against the stupid idea of some climate state being “normal” and that is a very valid point.
      Only those who deny that climate changes believe there is such a thing as a “normal” temperature which we should sacrifice all in some vain attempt to set our global thermostat to in an insane belief that we can actually control it in the first place.
      My guess is that the temperature “norm” is the local mean over some arbitrary period like the last 30y rounded to some arbitrary round number of years since the supposed birth of Jesus.
      Since warmer is now “the new normal” these maps are a higher probability of being cooler than that new “normal”.
      It all gets rather farcical, and pretty meaningless in terms of knowing what to expect.

      • I’m all set for the new normal. Flip flops, shorts and a Hawaiian shirt. I’ll look great this December in North Dakota sipping an ice cold Pina Calida . I’ll be the first climate refugee escaping the sweltering heat ( and rising sea levels) from Florida. On my way north I’ll see the motor homes headed south,… hey you’re going the wrong way, I’ll shout.

      • …” those who deny that climate changes “… Those who deny that climate changes are controlled by mankind’s actions in a sustaining long term way are not the crazy ones. Personally I am thankful for the heat the SUN provides. Uh, 25K years ago the planet was FROZEN. Looking at glacial records taught in schools one could say the “average” thereby “NORMAL” state of the planet is FROZEN.
        Just pointing that out… These little warm spells are absolutely wonderful, what with miles of ice not sitting where my house is and all.

      • “Normal’ is an incorrect term when describing temps. ‘Average’ is the more correct term. And average is only 30yrs worth of data. So every 10 years when the 30yr averages are recalculated you get slightly different ‘Normals’ which are not normal at all. Where I live in the upper midwest, each day has a standard deviation of several degrees, and absolute range of even more.. I hate the term “normal”.

    • Its going to be a very cold winter in the USA. This can be predicted two years in advance simply by looking at our planets position in relation to the Sun and its sun spot activity. NOAA not required. A La Nina is coming to Australia. Its going to be a very good year to grow crops in Australia next year.

      • Howard Taft was the best weather man that we ever had in the state of Texas. He would go outside and read the signs and give the weather and it was accurate every time. I don’t know what these guys will do when their little computers fail!

      • Predicting a very cold winter is like predicting a very warm summer Geoff. In fact, I can predict that in 10 years winter will be cold in NE Oregon. Very cold for some of it. And it will be very hot in summer too, very very hot for some of it. To do this I didn’t look at the Sun or even my horoscope. I guessed based on the instruction I received in 1st grade when we were drawing pictures of the seasons. And I am willing to bet I will be right.

    • I note the likelihood of normal temps on the Door County Peninsula.
      This is my second weather forecast visit each morning, after my local It’s paid for with my taxes and so I don’t have to tolerate advertising

      • Howard Taft was the best weather man that we ever had in the state of Texas. He would go outside and read the signs and give the weather and it was accurate every time. I don’t know what these guys will do when their little computers fail!

    • There are so many people and organizations skewing data to meet their agenda it is ridiculous. If you look at the sun you can match solar activity to weather. Add to that ocean currents and you can see a real relationship to the weather. It’s nice to have Joe Bastardi and his common sense and actual science not politics to rely on. Keep up the good work Joe.

    • Look at Joe Bastardi’s Daily and Weekly summaries. Check the one for today, Dec 1, and you’ll see these maps with Canada’s colors added, but you better get it today.
      Joe has been saying this for two months.

    • Marcus – just go look at your local TV weather – Global TV isn’t too bad. Tonight’s “Travellers forecast” showed the jet stream dipping south next week bringing lots of cold weather into the southern US. Their forecast looked a lot like the “blue zone” on this post. It will be minus 20 to -30C where I live for a while starting the middle of next week. The left coast won’t be really cold since they will be on the warm side of the jet stream. Eastern Canada is getting hammered by snow storms right now, and that will likely continue.
      It’s going to get cold where I am, but that is normal.

    • canada forecast: it will be cold enough for body fluids to form into icicles clinging to and around any exposed mucous membranes for the next 6-8 months. scarves, muffs, and mittens should be considered; assless chaps, thongs and the like should be avoided- at least muff it up…should probably put a muffler on that sh¡t during any kind of climatic anomoly, cold, hot,…luke warm. muffle it, ass-cicles can lead to dry chafed/chapped ass, become gangrenous and require amputation.

      • This winter has been very mild so far, as was all of last winter in Western Canada. We are probably due to get back to more like average. In the context of climate, the winters here (Saskatchewan) were pretty brutal in the 60’s, a couple of tough ones in the 90’s and 2012 and 13 were nasty. Summer temps over 100F in the 60’s, 80’s and early 2000’s. Likewise alternating wet, dry and just average. Whadryagonnado?

    • It’s interesting to note that the neutral weather matches exactly the borders of Canada and Mexico. 🙂
      Anyway, most Americans won’t like a normal Canadian winter. Just saying …

      • That would account for the paucity of throngs of movie stars rushing across the Canadian border to escape the dreadful regime about to pounce come January on everything beautiful–fairies, unicorns, rainbows, etc.–in the USA. I hope they’re not waiting until too late. Is there a river or something stopping them? The “Rio Grand-eh,” perhaps?

      • Canadian Summar is really nice though. Just go up on June 28th and come back on June 29th.
        The rest of the time is either
        Really Cold
        Really Really Cold
        Or a combination of many, most, or all of the adjectives mentioned above

    • “Folks come up to Canada, our weather is neutral, a warmers paradise.”
      Not exactly.
      You have normal weather for Canada in late fall.
      Which, by the way is damn cold.
      mr in fl

      • Bryan, please, don’t exaggerate. My old job included preparation of Environmental Impact Assessments. EISs include a bunch of climate boilerplate.
        So, I know for a fact, for my old town, the date of the latest recorded frost was July 1. And the date of the earliest recorded frost was July 4. So summer in Canada is at least three days.

    • “How is this affecting 2016 as warmest year in history of the universe ?”
      That depends on how cold it gets over December.
      Odds are 2016 will be the hottest in the satellite record (1979-present) by less than a tenth of a degree, which is within the margin of error of the measuring instrument, which means 1998 and 2016 are tied for the record in the satellite record. That also means the 1930’s was hotter than both years. About 0.5C hotter.

      • When it is cold in the US it is just a very small slice of the planet… although that will not stop the sheep thinking “it must be cold everywhere.”

      • Simon, are you too dense to know what GLOBAL and WARMING mean? HOW are record cold temps possible ANYWHERE, if TEMPS ARE RISING EVERYWHERE?
        Those 7th grade level vocab words got you stumped, huh?

      • Simon, Simon, Simon.
        I said nothing about the US, or any other country/continent.
        Are you this pathetic in real life?

      • RonAre December 2, 2016 at 4:21 am
        “Simon, are you too dense to know what GLOBAL and WARMING mean? HOW are record cold temps possible ANYWHERE, if TEMPS ARE RISING EVERYWHERE?”
        Listen RonAre. How can I put this? Before you call me dense why don’t you read a little about climate. But to help you here are some very basic key points
        – No one ever said it would warm equally across the globe. The arctic is the fastest warming area on the planet. Yes I know it is cold there and no santa doesn’t really live there.
        – Climate change causes extreme records, both hot and cold. There are just more hot records broken than cold ones.
        Tell me again who the dense one is?

      • “MarkW December 2, 2016 at 1:14 pm
        Simon, Simon, Simon.
        I said nothing about the US, or any other country/continent.
        Are you this pathetic in real life?”
        MarkW, are you this condescending in real life?

        • Which month will ” Winter’s Last Hurrah ” be this year ? Based on previous sound bites from C/AGW, winter should be by now the last 2 weeks in Dec and the first 2 weeks of Jan . The mere fact that we are having cold weather period, negates C/AGW entirely. I can explain it to you in detail from an AGW point of view. You know textbook, co2 holds on and traps heat. This isn’t ” it will happen some day ” occurance, it’s 5 years ago now. Which prediction/projection from C/AGW came true ? You can speculate about this and that, it comes down to the math. The math proves that orange trees are growing in England as we speak. You think I’m making this crap up ?

  3. “So the guidance is cold but its not a forecast.”
    I’m not looking forward to it getting cold. We had our first hard freeze this morning in this area, which is several weeks late. But it looks like we are going to make up for that nice weather in the near future.

  4. Why is Canada and the Canadian Arctic blanked out you can’t produce the map without the data from north of the 49th paralell ? It might also be interesting to see a comparison of what is going on in Russia,

  5. So, what happened to Canada? We are going to be warmer? I am sure your audience close to the northern border are wondering as well as that is where a significant portion of their daily weather comes from.

    • Canada is always cold. Not news. Sorry.
      (just kidding you a bit, Doug — yes, indeed, that great land to the north is of vital importance!)

    • I’m going to be an old ByGod eye here:
      30 years back Algore promised me snowless winters and by God I ought to sue him for not comin’ through on this.
      Do old ByGod eyes live around you too?

    • I suggest a new thread for our favorite stuff for sale. Janice’s List?
      (I’m tempted by that $99 digital alert system! I could use it to detect water under the house.)

      • Yay!!!
        1. Somebody READ my ad (who matters)
        Well, lol, Mr. Kafkazar — lots of others would have some great ideas for the list, too. How about, “GREAT STUFF!” (for the list title)?
        Re: the Digital Alert System — go for it! 🙂

  6. It finally turned cold here in Colorado Springs. But we need precipitation. Still no measurable snowfall this season — latest on record. Mountains to the west have been getting snow — nothing left when the weather systems reach us.

    • The older down town parts of Colorado Springs is wetter than the surroundings areas. It is a semi arid environment. Meaning, close to desert. Today, the city has expanded. Where once there was only 100,000 people, there are now 600,000. That didn’t stop people from planting trees, grass, and shrubs that would never grow here. If you drive out east of here on Hwy 94, it’s desolate. Look! I can see A tree. The thought has occured to me how me and a bunch of other people that are constantly watering are changing the climate. There is no doubt that since they built the Pueblo reservoir, that it is much warmer there. I wonder if all the watering causes it to be slightly warmer and/or does it cause it to rain more further east. ( I know, a lot of people have let their lawns go, the cost of water. It looks like slumville in places. When it’s wet, ” we need a rate hike, nobody is buying water “, when it’s dry, ” we need a rate hike, we don’t have that much water to sell “. ) you’d be surprised at who owns the water rights and how it affects the economic heath of an area. Some very rich people reach the, ” O! For a muse of hypocrisy, that would ascend the highest heights of heaven “.

      • Probably responding too late for you to read the reply. I am one of those people that planted a lot of grass. You may be correct about the effect of watering, but I’ve been wondering about the UHI effect of all the parking lots for the big box stores out here, the highways, and the people that moved in and replaced the natural vegetation with rocks. When I moved out here, there was nothing but fields with weeds, coyotes, and wolves. Now there are houses as far as the eye can see. I planted quite a few trees in our yard, but I’m lucky — we have a high water table. I had to replace a fence post that had rotted out this summer, and I was surprised that ground water kept seeping into the very bottom of the hole. And when it rains, my sump pump runs off and on for about 3 weeks afterwards.

  7. Has to do with global cooling. 2 more decades coming up. Get used to the cold or move south. Might be better to move south anyway because of the coming droughts. Only 2 more years to go.

  8. I wonder how the public will receive an announcement in Early January 2017 that 2016 was the warmest year ever after going through a colder than normal December. People already don’t like dealing with normal December cold and snow, if it is even colder than normal and then there is an announcement of how 2016 was so warm and we must stop global warming… that might not go over well.

      • they just need to be re-educated so they can replace the fantasy with facts

        Welcome to post-truth. It’s not what is true, it’s what feels true.

      • co2isnotevil December 1, 2016 at 10:14 am
        ” they just need to be re-educated so they can replace the fantasy with facts.”
        Maybe not. There are a lot of people out there that have been holding their tongues, just as with the election.
        What frightens me is if they really get angry.

    • The spin will be…
      (1) Warmest year ever despite a super-cold December, which goes to show how hot it was through November!
      (2) December’s cold was an extreme weather event, and more frequent extreme weather events is consistent with global warming theory

  9. Another way to look at these maps/guidance is, they are stating of the seven days (8 – 14 inclusive) being measured, 30 – 60% of the CONUS (in this case) is expect to experience temps lower than some quantity of the past 30. However, these don’t state which of those seven days will be the days which off set the normal days. There is chance (small as hell chance in this case) that it will only be a single day of seven rather than all seven will be on the cold end of the 30 year history. While I don’t want to see the single day which offsets so many others, I think I’d rather see that day than a stretch of all seven in a row.

  10. All I know is that cold is good for garlic (in the US Northeast anyway).
    Bring it on, I got plenty of mulch.

  11. In the end, it will stay warm in SW Florida as usual. I would like to see a law passed that says anyone who believes global warming is a threat and advocates for cooler temperatures be banned from moving to Florida. Since they fear warmth, let them stay cool.
    BTW, the Atlanta Braves are negotiating for a new spring training facility in the southern part of Venice near River Road. A very large new development is going into that area also.

    • Well, Tom in FL. I didn’t know about yet another Atlanta Braves training facility. Maybe it will be different this time and the FL taxpayer won’t get hooked for a big part of the bill.
      In any case; do you think the Weather Channel is going to name this storm/front???

  12. I heard David Phillips, the senior climatologist of Environment Canada, on CBC radio today. His forecast / prediction / ??? for the coming winter (in eastern Canada) was a bit mixed, but “typical” might be what he was looking for. IOW, some days rainy, some days snowy, some days very cold, and some days not so cold. Overall, a bit warmer…..on average…..than usual.
    We’ll know by March 2017.
    Ian M

  13. I do hope team Trump has prepared an official response to bitter cold temps that reads something like this “It’s winter! get over it!”

  14. I see great locations in northern ND and MT for relocation of EPA and NOAA headquarter(s). It’s the internet age so they can communicate and videoconference just fine from there.

    • You forgot. I want the UN to relocate there as well. With only renewable energy and no cars. Let them bicycle or walk in. And who will need coats, hats, and gloves ? Not with global warming ! And only locally sourced food. It would save them a ton on those really expensive French restaurants in NYC. You know the ones where 99.99% couldn’t sit down in. Let them be a shining example of leading the world. Since they will be so self sufficient, a budget cut would be in order. A big budget cut should be in order anyway, the science is settled. What more is there to prove ?

  15. First week on November in 2014 we had a 4-sigma cold outbreak in southern Wyoming. It injured many trees. I could use to not see that again.

  16. You ought to live in South Australia we are being governed by ideology not reality. I have my solar and batteries. Alternatively, a portable gen set is a must have. Please can we borrow Mr.Trump?

  17. This is going to be a very cold winter for those of us who live in the ‘Ice Age Glacier’ zone and bitter even in the deep, deep south. LA won’t be cold and since all the rulers who are lecturing us every day have second homes in California and the Caribbean, they will scream they are roasting to death.

  18. Break out the sun block and swim wear North Americans. This must be the fake news Chancellor Merkel is trying to ban.

  19. Well, cold weather like this is proof that Global Warming is absolutely true, dontcha know.
    Because Global Warming is tricky that way!

  20. Meanwhile CBC is warning us…
    Nicole Mortillaro signed this piece of alarmist fear mongering.

    Pine Island Glacier, at the outer edge of West Antarctica, is the fastest melting glacier in the region. In 2015, a 583 square kilometer piece of it broke off. Now researchers are beginning to understand how this is happening. The researchers discovered that the calving, or breakup, of the Pine Island Glacier began in 2013 after a rift formed at its base about 32 kilometers inland. The rift began to move upward over the following two years until it finally broke through the surface, causing the breakup.

    In November 1956, the USS Glacier reported that west of Scott Island a 31,000 km2 piece (335 km x 97 km) broke away from Antarctica…
    Are CBC writers paid activists?

    • “CBC writers” can’t read a map. They have no clue that the continent of Antarctica is 1 2/3 times the size of the US. Their journalists are now as badly educated as ours are. (Never used to be.) They don’t know that Antarctica is a continent, solid rock under those two miles of ice (at the peak and the South Pole). So the nitwits don’t and can’t understand that the 583 sq km piece is 2X the size of Catalina Island off the southern coast of CA. Or 1/10th the size of Prince Edward Island.

      • This winter has been very mild so far, as was all of last winter in Western Canada. We are probably due to get back to more like average. In the context of climate, the winters here (Saskatchewan) were pretty brutal in the 60’s, a couple of tough ones in the 90’s and 2012 and 13 were nasty. Summer temps over 100F in the 60’s, 80’s and early 2000’s. Likewise alternating wet, dry and just average. Whadryagonnado?

  21. Occasionally I get ideas that don’t fit in –WUWT and Jonova are the only two places i post anything.
    I had an idea for a political cartoon labeled — Obama’s Foreign Policy.. The cartoon is of Obama standing with his hands in the air wearing a T-shirt that says — Hands Up, Don’t Shoot.
    Eugene WR Gallun

  22. Take that mosquitoes!!!!!!!!! Cold winters have finally forced Asian tigers from my area. Incredibly pesky daytime full sun biters.

  23. Looks like my bet on Global Warming, as evidenced by my move from California to Maine back in the 90’s, is not working out. The real estate guy promised that it would be just like California in 20 years – can I sue? /sarc off

    • Taylor Pohlman December 1, 2016 at 1:45 pm
      Taylor I am from Conn moved to AZ. in 1985. then to OR, back to AZ.
      I was raised with the motto of never hitting a man when he was down – kick him why bend over.
      Joking aside, Maine is a wonderful state, I spent many summers there in my youth.
      I think if you stayed, there the state has been good to, and for you.

    • Good post Bruce. Similar posts pop up every little while but in 65 years of skiing, this is a wash, rinse repeat that has been going on for my entire life. The jet stream wanders a bit and the snow may come or it may go. One resort is inaccessible due to snow, and another has grass on the lower slopes. Just another infinite “Do Loop”.

    • Winter recreational areas got a head start last year – and an extended period of snow in the spring. Not doing quite so well this year, but things are starting to snowball now 😁

  24. I trust the new administration will focus on actual forecasting – short-term and seasonal, so that businesses and individuals can do real planning with confidence. Spending enormous sums on the climate 100 years from now while not measuring and developing reliable near-term models is such a waste, and doesn’t serve our needs. Here’s hoping that shift will occur.
    Do you think Joe Bastardi would make a good head of NOAA?

  25. Canuckics are a minority in North America. We find these maps hurtful and exclusionary. They erase us as a people. Worse, they hurt our feelings. When Democratic Party uproar over this reaches the right intensity, we shall descend upon the US northern border and claim climate asylum. Imagine, climate refugees — a Democratic dream come true.

  26. Having harangued a bit on an analysis of the hot and cold blob as a modifier of usual expectations from ENSO alone, I’m sticking my neck out here to say that NOAA has the forecast for precipitation for the southern half of of the US wrong. There will be much higher precipitation than normal there. This will end the drought in Calif. Indeed the polisci worriers will be blaming it on dirty weather or some such. Remember you heard it here first. And maybe I can get someone else a PhD for taking up this opportunity to do science.

  27. What is it about the Rio Grande that stops the cold spilling over into Mexico? Has President Trump built his wall already?

  28. Ha ha! Just in time for AGU in the “City By The Bay”.
    And look! Maybe free BART tickets Too!
    Hay, maybe Gov. Moonbeam will call out the CA State Troopers to “Pacify” with Louisville Slugger Baseball bats the hapless BART commuters trying to buy a ticket! Lovely!
    Ha ha

  29. 50 Fahrenheit (10 C)
    Californians shiver uncontrollably
    Canadians plant gardens.
    35 Fahrenheit (1.6 C)
    Italian cars won’t start
    Canadians drive with the windows down.
    32 Fahrenheit (0 C)
    American water freezes
    Canadian water gets thicker.
    0 Fahrenheit (-17.8 C)
    New York City landlords finally turn on the heat
    Canadians have the last cookout of the season.
    -60 Faherenheit (-51 C)
    Mt. St. Helens freezes
    Canadian Girl Guides sell cookies door-to-door.
    -100 Fahrenheit (-73 C)
    Santa Claus abandons the North Pole
    Canadians pull down their ear flaps
    -173 Fahrenheit (-114 C)
    Ethyl alcohol freezes
    Canadians get frustrated when they can’t thaw the keg.
    -460 Fahrenheit (-273 C)
    Absolute zero: all atomic motion stops
    Canadians start saying “Cold, eh?”
    -500 Fahrenheit (-295 C)
    Hell freezes over
    Toronto Maple Leafs win the Stanley Cup.

    • The American govt models didn’t. But Joe Bastardi and his weatherbell crew did. A long time ago. (In forecasting time.) Like last April. Bastardi is a National Treasure imo.

  30. When all else fails, dazzle them with your foot work. If this is the best and brightest……yikes!!! Ya, December is here, the shortest day is right around the corner and it’s probably going to get colder and the further North and higher in elevation, the colder it will be. There you go….100% certainty!

  31. I have an idea. Meteorologists with a good prediction record keep their jobs. Meteorologists with a consistently poor prediction record get fired. Thoughts?

  32. This cannot be! The Paris Climate Agreement has abolished all extreme weather events everywhere for all tiime. The agreement intimidates the sun and the oceans to provide the ideal climate for everyone, everywhere, all the time. It is a done deal. This article must be wrong.

  33. I’m looking for a high pressure area to take up residence off Alaska and south of the Aleutians and sit there (Omega block). That plus the Hudson Bay low will channel Arctic air southward over the continent and really freeze the oranges. We’re not there yet.

  34. Have to pass this along.
    Below is, in my opinion, the best post-election line ever. It a line that the more you think about it the better it gets. The white working class use to be the backbone of the Democratic Party. Trump turned them Republican. Trump cut slightly into the Black vote, the Hispanic vote and won the college educated vote. What the line??
    “Nobody has seen Democrats so mad since Republicans took their slaves away from them.”
    Eugene WR Gallun

      • chilemike –
        Sorry, its not my line. I wrote the explanation blurb above it but the line I read somewhere else. Would love to give proper credit but cant remember where I saw it. I should have been clearer that I was not the source.
        Eugene WR Gallun

  35. This is entirely connected with the current conditions in the arctic and the continuing changes in recent years in winter arctic air circulation patterns.
    It is a sign of a warming planet: climate change is just that, not a simple even warming of everywhere to a few degrees.
    Before you all start shouting me down, take 10 minutes to look at arctic air circulation and what the warmth up there does to patterns of cold outside the arctic….

    • Yep, Griff, it’s a very interesting pattern for sure. I’ve been watching it the last few months. Unusual warmth at the pole, all the cold shifts to siberia, and also very heavy snows and ‘Ice Gain’ in Greenland so far. So what? So it must be warming causing it because change is a sign of warming? I could just as easily said it’s a sign of a cooling planet because some scientist said that too. I don’t think we really have an understanding of the particulars of some of these anomalies. To blame warming for everything will not help your case though.

      • The relevant fact is, IMO, that whatever warming might actually have happened since the PDO flip of 1977 is completely within the normal range of decadal fluctuation and far below the vast majority of model predictions or projections. Indeed, should the Plateau resume, soon to be below even the so enormously generous error bars of the GIGO, worse than worthless GCMs that they’re meaningless. At best.

    • Depends on solar activity, Griff. Active sun means stable polar vortex so cold air stays put. Quiet sun means unstable vortex and cold air heads randomly south. ‘Scuse me while I run for cover.

    • @ Griff
      December 2, 2016 at 1:37 am: I know it is outside your program to get this, but we watch these things all the time, all of them between us. Because we are truly interested, not just pushing a belief system designed to destroy western civilisation. But you being just a useful idiot at best, won’t get that either….The ‘warmth’ up there (not warm at all in fact, try it outside of furs) is being exhausted to space in that darkness. The crossflow has pre-chilled Eurasia, and is now spreading, so look out! And we were predicting this last year because of the solar stage.
      But at least you are helping the cause by wasting our time. Not to worry, I am retired.

    • Yes, oh yes. The patterns are supposed to always be the same everywhere, otherwise it’s a sign of impending doom. So bundle up, it’s getting warm out there.

    • Cold air moving away from the pole and being replaced by less cold air, is proof of global warming.
      The fact that the same thing has been happening on a regular basis for centuries, not with standing.

  36. What’s with the dumb word ‘blast’ , It’s winter, get over it! It will be a blast if we have a severe weather.

  37. You must realize that global warming leads to global cooling. Pull your heads out everyone. Unless we work together to cool the earth, we will all freeze to death. Sheesh! Such idiots.

  38. Back in the day, we used to call ’em hot spells and cold spells… these days, a cold spell is an “anomaly” and a hot spell is “global warming”. Funny how that works….?

    • Beyond that, according to Griff, cold spells are also proof of global warming.
      Apparently there have never been cold spells prior to the invention of the SUV.

  39. I can remember when! Winter of 1987 or 1988. An arctic air mass brought temperatures in Alaska down to -70F in the interior, -40F for days in the Banana Belt of Alaska (Anchorage). Then it headed south. Work was cancelled for my husband in San Antonio because of ice. The house we lived in had an inadequate furnace for the cold (10-15F if I recall correctly), and we huddled in blankets for a couple days until it passed through.
    I remember one of the news people from the Lower 48 who bought a goose-down coat and flew up there to cover the event, asked someone from the interior of Alaska (maybe Fairbanks…) how it felt to live in temperatures of -60F. He said, “It’s just like -40F, only colder”.
    We moved to Alaska in 1989.

    • This begins the time of year around here that one should be heading for Arizona or Florida for about three or four months. I never used to mind winter a whole lot, but now I absolutely hate it.

    • RE: We moved to Alaska in 1989.
      Therefore you must have been in AK for the one in Dec 1990 which was worse.

      • I was, but I don’t recall the hysteria associated with it. We arrived right after the Exxon Valdez ran aground, and were there when the KLM plane flew through the ash cloud from Mt. Redoubt and lost all 4 engines for a terrifyingly long time. They lost 14,000 feet of altitude before the engines were restarted and the plane landed safely at Anchorage.
        I also remember a very low pressure system which grounded all commercial planes for several days. The funny bit about that was the local news channels going to the airport to file their reports. One of them showed the flight board for Delta, with all flights listed as “cancelled”, and at the bottom, Delta’s motto: “We love to fly, and it shows.”
        Left for Saudi Arabia in 1991, so that we could breathe the oil smoke from Saddam Hussein’s hissy fit when he set fire to all of Kuwait’s oil wells.

      • No, never been in Alaska. I live in Alberta, which is bad enough in the winter. I used to go to Yellowkinfe in the north west territories in the winter. I’ve seen plenty of -55F -60F degree temperatures. No more of that for me.

  40. I think it’s called Global Warming. Some idiot egg-head scienceism professor tried to tell me that once while smugly looking down his nose at me for daring to ask questions that contradicted him. He went to prison for beating the shít of of his wife.

  41. “Cold Anomaly”? Hmmm… or, maybe just not “Globdl Warming”?
    Tough for so many to understand that “man” has about the significance to Earth as a mosquito on an Elephant’s ass…

  42. I strongly object to many of the comments.
    This is the science of weather forecasting. It is not the science of climatology. It is understandable, to a degree, that the politicization of climate change has infuriated many Americans. Many judge that government scientists are liars, with some cause. But this is a different science and these experts do not deserve this scorn. They owe us the truth, as they know it, with all uncertainties acknowledged. They have saved uncounted lives by hurricane forecasts; millions drive to safety due to the early warnings. Here they tell us to stock up on logs and arrange our schedules (e.g. purchase mom’s medicines) to avoid suffering.
    They are doing the best that they can. Stop with the anger and dumb jokes. This information is for adults.

    • Go mix up some Geritol/Metamucil cocktails and chill out.
      [is this what they teach you to do on the taxpayers dime at MIT? -mod]

    • Maybe it would be nice if the climatologists stopped defining short term weather trends as “climate”???
      Wayne Delbeke, P. Eng. (yeah, a lot of people have initials behind their names but normally wouldn’t use them here as it would look like an appeal to authority and could even violate some professional ethics rules implying education,training and experience in a field they aren’t qualified to comment on professionally. Many have training and experience in weather and climate in our daily lives and work. But l, for one, recognize a huge difference between weather and climate. My feeling is that everyone has experienced weather but no one has experienced “climate”. But that’s just my opinion. )
      Have a good day.

  43. Global Warming, ugh I mean…Climate Crisis.. or whatever it is, let’s blame and tax the business communities of the world so we can do nothing but pass laws and get paid.

  44. I just received this alert:
    “Join us for a screening of the End of Snow, a film by Jane Zelikova and Day’s Edge Productions. See familiar faces from around campus on the big screen discussing climate, climate change, and the Snowy Range. After the film, we will discuss taking an idea from inspiration to completion as well as how science is communicated through various media with scientists from the film and UW community.”
    We got 40 inches of snow in the Snowy Range last weekend, and the real winter weather is coming.

  45. Meh! In MY day we had a word for this flimity glimmity Climate Change.
    We called it WINTER!
    And we loved it!!

  46. GLOBAL WARMING! global warming, global warming, global warming, global warming, global warming, global warming, global warming, global warming, global warming, global warming, global warming, global warming, global warming, … test of faith! Double the Carbon Tax on Everything for victory of what should be over observation of what is.

  47. I guess they have to call the cold an “anomaly” to keep in line with their global warming bs.
    That anomaly is called Winter.

  48. Global warming means “global”. Just because it’s cold in bumfcuk Iowa doesn’t mean it’s not hotter than normal in the rest of the world.

  49. It’s going to be cold in December !
    Hoo Ha
    It’s going to be cold next week (in December) !
    Hoo ha
    So, let’s assume the forecast is right, and most of the USA is very cold for one week in December.
    Hoo Ha
    With USA (48 states) only about 1.6% of the Earth’s surface area, what does one cold December week for the US have to do with long term GLOBAL climate trends?
    I know, I know — EVERYTHING is proof of a coming climate change catastrophe, a prediction that can never be falsified (because it’s always coming in the future … but never shows up while we are alive).
    US square miles (48 states plus Wash DC = 3.12 million square miles
    Earth square miles = 196.9 million square miles
    3.12 / 196.9 = 1.58%

  50. I keep wondering when glacial inception will begin.
    “We will illustrate our case with reference to a debate currently taking place in the circle of Quaternary climate scientists. The climate history of the past few million years is characterised by repeated transitions between `cold’ (glacial) and `warm’ (interglacial) climates. The first modern men were hunting mammoth during the last glacial era. This era culminated around 20,000 years ago [3] and then declined rapidly. By 9,000 years ago climate was close to the modern one. The current interglacial, called the Holocene, should now be coming to an end, when compared to previous interglacials, yet clearly it is not. The debate is about when to expect the next glacial inception, setting aside human activities, which may well have perturbed natural cycles.”
    Crucifix, M. and J. Rougier, 2009, “On the use of simple dynamical systems for climate predictions: A Bayesian prediction of the next glacial inception”, Published in Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Topics, 174, 11-31 (2009)

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