From the EUROPEAN GEOSCIENCES UNION and the “cold kills, so why all the whining about warming?” department.
How the cold 1430s led to famine and disease
While searching through historical archives to find out more about the 15th-century climate of what is now Belgium, northern France, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands, Chantal Camenisch noticed something odd. “I realised that there was something extraordinary going on regarding the climate during the 1430s,” says the historian from the University of Bern in Switzerland.
Compared with other decades of the last millennium, many of the 1430s’ winters and some springs were extremely cold in the Low Countries, as well as in other parts of Europe. In the winter of 1432-33, people in Scotland had to use fire to melt wine in bottles before drinking it. In central Europe, many rivers and lakes froze over. In the usually mild regions of southern France, northern and central Italy, some winters lasted until April, often with late frosts. This affected food production and food prices in many parts of Europe. “For the people, it meant that they were suffering from hunger, they were sick and many of them died,” says Camenisch.
She joined forces with Kathrin Keller, a climate modeller at the Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research in Bern, and other researchers, to find out more about the 1430s climate and how it impacted societies in northwestern and central Europe. Their results are published today in Climate of the Past, a journal of the European Geosciences Union.
They looked into climate archives, data such as tree rings, ice cores, lake sediments and historical documents, to reconstruct the climate of the time. “The reconstructions show that the climatic conditions during the 1430s were very special. With its very cold winters and normal to warm summers, this decade is a one of a kind in the 400 years of data we were investigating, from 1300 to 1700 CE,” says Keller. “What cannot be answered by the reconstructions alone, however, is its origin – was the anomalous climate forced by external influences, such as volcanism or changes in solar activity, or was it simply the random result of natural variability inherent to the climate system?”
There have been other cold periods in Europe’s history. In 1815, the volcano Mount Tambora spewed large quantities of ash and particles into the atmosphere, blocking enough sunlight to significantly reduce temperatures in Europe and other parts of the world. But the 1430s were different, not only in what caused the cooling but also because they hadn’t been studied in detail until now.
The climate simulations ran by Keller and her team showed that, while there were some volcanic eruptions and changes in solar activity around that time, these could not explain the climate pattern of the 1430s. The climate models showed instead that these conditions were due to natural variations in the climate system, a combination of natural factors that occurred by chance and meant Europe had very cold winters and normal to warm summers. [See note]
Regardless of the underlying causes of the odd climate, the 1430s were “a cruel period” for those who lived through those years, says Camenisch. “Due to this cluster of extremely cold winters with low temperatures lasting until April and May, the growing grain was damaged, as well as the vineyards and other agricultural production. Therefore, there were considerable harvest failures in many places in northwestern and central Europe. These harvest failures led to rising food prices and consequently subsistence crisis and famine. Furthermore, epidemic diseases raged in many places. Famine and epidemics led to an increase of the mortality rate.” In the paper, the authors also mention other impacts: “In the context of the crisis, minorities were blamed for harsh climatic conditions, rising food prices, famine and plague.” However, in some cities, such as Basel, Strasbourg, Cologne or London, societies adapted more constructively to the crisis by building communal granaries that made them more resilient to future food shortages.
Keller says another decade of very cold winters could happen again. “However, such temperature variations have to be seen in the context of the state of the climate system. Compared to the 15th century we live in a distinctly warmer world. As a consequence, we are affected by climate extremes in a different way – cold extremes are less cold, hot extremes are even hotter.”
The team says their Climate of the Past study could help people today by showing how societies can be affected by extreme climate conditions, and how they should take precautions to make themselves less vulnerable to them. In the 1430s, people had not been exposed to such extreme conditions before and were unprepared to deal with the consequences.
“Our example of a climate-induced challenge to society shows the need to prepare for extreme climate conditions that might be coming sooner or later,” says Camenisch. “It also shows that, to avoid similar or even larger crises to that of the 1430s, societies today need to take measures to avoid dangerous anthropogenic climate interference.”
###
Link to the paper: http://www.clim-past.net/12/2107/2016
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The JG/U 2K tree ring study clearly shows a deep low point in temps around 1450 AD. It can be seen that the temp drop which led to that low point in 1450 started around 20 years prior to 1450. …https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/07/120709092606.htm
Whitby Abbey a good choice for the illustration, Count Dracula’s landing place of course with thoughts of blood sucking and magic.
Funny how all of the really scary and dangerous climate stories are about the weather turning suddenly much colder.
What about the list of civilizations wiped out by temperatures going up a couple of degrees? Oh right, they’re aren’t any.
Don’t all these commenters remember that the utterly unquestioned Michael Mann made the Little Ice Age go away? All good people follow the blessed Mann and his hockey stick, from whom all funding flows./s
Tambora 1815, and the year without summer. This cold time can be found in the lyrics of Muller and composition of Schubert. Die schoene Muellerin – Trockne Blumen — Der Mai ist kommen Der Winter ist aus.
Since the authors can’t model the 1430s cold by what they know about volcanoes or sun, it is explained as “natural variation”. Meanwhile, modern models can’t trace the recent warming to volcanoes or sun, so some confidently state that the warming *must* be anthropogenic, as natural variation has been ruled out.
As others have written, the authors’ conclusion that “to avoid similar or even larger crises to that of the 1430s, societies today need to take measures to avoid dangerous anthropogenic climate interference” is nonsensical. The 1430s happened with no anthropogenic climate interference worth mentioning, and most certainly could happen in any year without any warning. The proper lesson was that *even if* you take measures to avoid “anthropogenic climate interference”, dramatic excursions from the average climate can and will happen, and societies need to be prepared to adapt to whatever nature gives them, whether that is cold or hot, wet or dry.
It’s rather like having an article on historical damage from storm surges, and ending it with a genuflection on the importance of avoiding anthropogenic sea level rise.
He that observeth the wind shall not sow; and he that regardeth the clouds shall not reap.
Mann’s hockey stick is proof Europe never suffered a little ice age
Societies at the time (except for the French) adapted by growing rye and barley in preference to cold-prone wheat. Urban granaries were better run and better protected against mould (US – “mold”) and vermin than farm based ones. I dispute that this particular cold period has not been studied. It certainly was at the time and since. The urban granaries did not operate the silly Roman Empire dole system – they were fully commercial.
“… take measures to avoid dangerous anthropogenic climate interference.”
And there’s the money shot.
Cold spells, cooling periods, and ice ages are all caused by global warming which is caused by Man’s burning of fossil fuels. This is how its has been for more than 500 million years. The adverse effects of Man’s use of fossil fuels is so bad that it has been projected back into time..
It is really a shame that the writings of Plymouth Colony Gov. Bradford are not taught in school any more. The official story has the Pilgrims boarding the Mayflower, coming to America, and establishing the Plymouth colony in the winter of 1620–21. This first winter is hard, and half the colonists die. But the survivors are hard working and tenacious, and they learn new farming techniques from the Indians. The harvest of 1621 is bountiful. The pilgrims hold a celebration, and give thanks to God. They are grateful for the wonderful new abundant land He has given them.
The official story then has the Pilgrims living more or less happily ever after, each year repeating the first Thanksgiving. Other early colonies also have hard times at first, but they soon prosper and adopt the annual tradition of giving thanks for this prosperous new land called America.
The problem with this official story is that the harvest of 1621 was not bountiful, nor were the colonists hard-working or tenacious. 1621 was a famine year and many of the colonists were lazy thieves.
In his History of Plymouth Plantation, the governor of the colony, William Bradford, reported that the colonists went hungry for years because they refused to work in the field. They preferred instead to steal food. He says the colony was riddled with “corruption,” and with “confusion and discontent.” The crops were small because “much was stolen both by night and day, before it became scarce eatable.”
In the harvest feasts of 1621 and 1622, “all had their hungry bellies filled,” but only briefly. The prevailing condition during those years was not the abundance the official story claims, it was famine and death. The first “Thanksgiving” was not so much a celebration as it was the last meal of condemned men.
But in subsequent years something changes. The harvest of 1623 was different. Suddenly, “instead of famine now God gave them plenty,” Bradford wrote, “and the face of things was changed, to the rejoicing of the hearts of many, for which they blessed God.” Thereafter, he wrote, “any general want or famine hath not been amongst them since to this day.” In fact, in 1624, so much food was produced that the colonists were able to begin exporting corn.
What happened? After the poor harvest of 1622, writes Bradford, “they began to think how they might raise as much corn as they could, and obtain a better crop.” They began to question their form of economic organization.
This had required that “all profits & benefits that are got by trade, traffic, trucking, working, fishing, or any other means” were to be placed in the common stock of the colony, and that, “all such persons as are of this colony, are to have their meat, drink, apparel, and all provisions out of the common stock.” A person was to put into the common stock all he could, and take only what he needed.
This “from each according to his ability, to each according to his need” was an early form of socialism, and it is why the Pilgrims were starving. Bradford writes that “young men that were most able and fit for labor and service” complained about being forced to “spend their time and strength to work for other men’s wives and children.” Also, “the strong, or man of parts, had no more in division of victuals and clothes, than he that was weak.” So the young and strong refused to work and the total amount of food produced was never adequate.
To rectify this situation, in 1623 Bradford abolished socialism. He gave each household a parcel of land and told them they could keep what they produced, or trade it away as they saw fit. In other words, he replaced socialism with a markets, and that was the end of the famines.
Many early groups of colonists set up socialist states, all with the same terrible results. At Jamestown, established in 1607, out of every shipload of settlers that arrived, less than half would survive their first twelve months in America. Most of the work was being done by only one-fifth of the men, the other four-fifths choosing to be parasites. In the winter of 1609–10, called “The Starving Time,” the population fell from five-hundred to sixty. Then the Jamestown colony was converted to a relatively free market, and the results were every bit as dramatic as those at Plymouth.
Great synopsis, thank you.
Jamestown also benefited from the cultivation of tobacco as a cash crop, thanks to mild Spanish seeds stolen by my ancestor John Rolfe and successfully grown by my ancestress his second wife Rebecca, aka Matoaka “Pocahontas” Powhatan. The first shipload arrived in London in 1614, arguably the most important event in US if not world history from the 17th century. It meant that there would be a commercially viable colonial British North America, hence eventually USA.
The US owes its existence to the early modern drug trade, ie tobacco and alcohol, in the form of rum from slave-produced sugar and whiskey from Indian corn (maize). With some cod and food crops.
The first three English colonies each had different beginnings and therefore had completely different outcomes. To trace the differences is worthy of time and analysis because there are enduring lessons in the first attempts to start societies in the New World. The principles at work are more important today for this generation than for any other.
The three original colonies were:
1. Roanoke
2. Jamestown
3. Plymouth
Sir Walter Raleigh received the charter to begin a colony in North America. He brought over 107 men in the year 1585, but this colony quickly failed and was brought home 10 mos later by Francis Drake. It seems that Raleigh had a think about why the colony failed, and in his next attempt he brought men, women and children to Virginia. I cannot help but admire his insight here. And this adjustment by Raleigh also goes to the very heart of the matter: the colonies which included women and families were successful, while Jamestown, which was made up entirely of “gentlemen,” was an unmitigated disaster. (Though because of the Spanish Armada the Roanoke settlers are considered by historians to be the “lost colony,” I am among those who think that the Lumbee Indian tribe are the Old English-speaking descendents of the Roanoke colony, which is a kind of success.)
It must be remembered that the Pilgrims were a group who did have safety in their hometown of Scrooby –provided that they would attend the Church of England. They were also safe in Holland, where they had freedom of worship — if they did not mind their children growing up speaking Dutch. So in a bold move they obtained a charter from the king and hired Miles Standish as their captain, and left for the New World. The Separatists were risking it all to be free and speak English.
Jamestown, like Raleigh’s first colony, was a settlement comprised of all men. They were recruited by the London Company and their expectations were that they would become fabulously wealthy collecting gold nuggets on beaches. None of them had had a proper job or labored a day in their lives. They were not expecting to work and knew nothing about the Indians tribes. When Captain John Smith returned to Jamestown from his river explorations looking for a passage to the Pacific, he found that no work had been done that entire summer. He negotiated with the Indians for a winter supply of food, but set up a law that “if a man shall not work, he shall not eat.” He was resented and later had to return to England. Jamestown suffered extremely bad relations with the Indians, plagues, fires, cannibalism and near failure. Jamestown soon introduced slavery in the New World and its first cash crop was tobacco.
My point is that in the same way we would not ignore the different variables in a scientific experiment, the differences in causes and ultimate effects between the three colonies should not be ignored. If life is a science, intentions, methods, and expectations lead to different results. Jamestown represents what would later become the economy of the south. Plymouth would become the symbol of the aspirations and economy of the north. Also, if living is a science, it is plain in these three experiments that conjugial love is the foundation for the better society.
The Plymouth colony had to pay the debt incurred for their passage. Several of the leaders, including William Bradford, assumed the debt and were able to allow the colony to proceed in family holdings.
It has been noted by historians that the London Company was not exactly keeping a fair ledger. In one letter, William Bradford is informed that an entire ship load of furs was lost at sea.
I am sorry for the rough draft above. Sometimes you have to settle for a thumbnail sketch effort, without notes and without polishing, or it will not get done at all.
Terrific thread of comments. WUWT never fails to amaze me.
And in Australia…
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/everyone-is-under-great-threat-call-for-cyclonelike-categories-for-heatwaves-20161201-gt2bkh.html
All MSM weathercasts are calling 35-36c in western Sydney, in SUMMER, a heatwave.
“And in Australia…
http://www.smh.com.au/environment/everyone-is-under-great-threat-call-for-cyclonelike-categories-for-heatwaves-20161201-gt2bkh.html
All MSM weathercasts are calling 35-36c in western Sydney, in SUMMER, a heatwave.”
Well here we are at 2:40 or so on Saturday afternoon and the BOM is showing a frightening 23.6C for Sydney and 19.5 for Melbourne.
We’re doomed, doomed I say!
that’s a cooking winter temp…… just a pity for the warm-ada it’s on the wrong hemisphere and that summer is waiting for you 🙂
“usually mild regions of southern France, northern and central Italy”
Sorry, you misunderstood local climate! It may sound strange to many, since North Italy is on the same latitude of South France (but also of Romania), but NI winters are usually NOT mild. Indeed North Italy historical average winter temperatures are colder than places such Paris or London – but for the tiny, even if long, Liguria coastline (e.g. Genoa). Mediterranean climate actually does not include North Italy, not by winters (much colder and drier than in e.g. Rome) nor by summers (pretty warm, but much wetter). This does not mean, of course, that winter in Milan or Venice is like in Kiev or Stockholm; but it is anyway very different from Central (and South) Italy.
Altitude perhaps?
Venice is 0m (0ft) altitude LOL Venice airport (altitude 6m, 20ft) January average: -0.1/+6.6°C; inland areas have around 0.5°C to 1°C less. London Heathrow January average: +2.3/+8.1°C.
Well you did start by talking about NORTHERN Italian winters being colder than Paris or London. The only significant variable would be altitude.
nope Northern Italy is very mountainous alps to the north, and the Apeninnes running through it. That makes that the plains of the river Po and the genoa coast are prone to have cold winds and lots of precipitation.
so it’s not altitude related but more topography/wind related
“Frederik Michiels December 3, 2016 at 1:07 pm”
Again, altitude.
@Patrick, Venice IS North Italy – unless you consider it South Austria, for me would really be OK LOL
North Italy is about 50% mountain ranges, mainly Alps. And 50% low-lying, flat plains, mainly along the Po river “valley” with altitude going from -2m (yes! in some subcoastal area) to 250m: so, really, altitude is not a parameter for winter temperatures comparing Venice (0m), Milan (120m), Bologna (50m), Turin (200m) to North France or England (just said Paris and London to get it easier). Moreover, North Italy hosts about 25million people, which >20million live in the plains, not in the mountains nor Ligurian coast (Genoa).
@Frederick: true, but not all. Genoa has very mild climate for its position, but as you said, it can occasionally (few days a year) experience cold spell, with strong winds crossing Appennine passes from Po Valley plain. In the rest of the North, cold spells mainly come from Central (Eastern) Europe, across lower Julian Alps (e.g. Trieste). A significant part of cold weather, however, is due to thermal inversion layer, which can be very strong in Po Valley, as it is surrounded by 3 sides from mountains, and on the 4th side is just a small and shallow sea (more like a big, salty lake). Actually North Italy plains are maybe the “most foggy” place in Europe, between November and February, with fog often staying 24h a day.
There is a glaring omission from this climatic study that nobody has been able to spot, even though it is reported in the literature. What sets the Spörer minimum epoch apart is the combination of being very cold and very dry. It was reported at the time that the seeds sowed in Autumn in the fields were being killed by the intense cold because there was no layer of insulating snow covering the fields as is usual. That led to the deep freezing of the soil killing the seeds.
The drought was generalized in Central and Northern Europe. Despite being such a cold period there were no glacier advances reported in the Alps for lack of precipitations. Even sea ice appears affected, as precipitations tend to favor its formation by reducing surface salinity. This does not fit a solar signature as it is well demonstrated that grand solar minima increase precipitations in Central Europe. So something else was going on at the time besides the solar minimum and volcanic activity. Unless they can model the drought their model is useless to understand what happened. The intense winter cold was probably enhanced by lack of cloud cover giving it its record cold features.
From:
https://judithcurry.com/2016/09/20/impact-of-the-2400-yr-solar-cycle-on-climate-and-human-societies/
Informative. Thanks!
If the drought were for just a decade, it would be a weather event. But if the whole Spoerer Minimum were like that, then it was a climatic phenomenon.
Must have been the birth of the first Gore’s.
Anything that disrupts the normal relatively short swings of El Nino/La Nina (IE discharge versus recharge) conditions would echo through the globe in uneven patterns with both immediate results and lags. Why there? The most important part of the ocean for the purposes of discharge/recharge would be that band that sits perpendicular to solar incidence, not the ocean bands that sit at angles to solar incidence. The equatorial band is that band. So look there for issues. Unfortunately, the ethereal nature of past ocean temperatures is hard to come by. That said, there are records of pulses of volcanic dust determined to originate within the equatorial band that was thick enough to obscure Solar irradiance, thus impacting the ENSO process. And anything that affects that, may echo through the century, bouncing around the globe from one place to another as currents spread the effects here, then there, then elsewhere.
My comment did not appear after mountainape5. And I swear there were no swear words!
Given the uncertainty of C14 dating that decade could have been the bottom of the Sporer, which was a “shallow grand minimum”, much like the Dalton.
https://www.cityoflondon.gov.uk/about-the-city/about-us/Pages/history-of-the-government-of-the-city-of-london.aspx
For those interested in the cities of the 1430’s This is about London.
It had a separate government .
Peasants were tied to the land and therefore did not live in the city, in England. The feudal system in France may have been different.
Stadtluft macht frei! (City air makes free!) After a year and a day in town on the lam from the farm.
Serfdom was already on its way out in England by 1430. The Black Death of 1348, et seq, had made survivors’ labor more valuable. Failure of landowners to pay what farm work was then worth led to increasing unrest and uprisings by serfs and peasants, like Tyler’s Rebellion in 1381. The proto-Protestant Lollards can also be seen in an economic light.
These revolts put pressure on gentry, nobility and clergy to reform the system. As a result, serf and peasant demands were accommodated to some extent by the gradual establishment of new forms of land leases and increased personal liberties. By the end of 15th century, this aspect of the feudal system was largely if not completely gone in England.
It was all caused by global waming caused by Man’s use of fossil fuels. All climate change since the beginning of time on Earth has been caused by Man’s use of fossil fuels. If Man stops using fossil fuels, global warming and with it climate change will stop for all time. They would have us believe.
And the connection of the cold winters of the 1430s in the Benelux countries to the ruins of Whitby Abbey in Yorkshire is ???
Maybe because it’s across the North Sea from the Low Countries, so subject to similar climatic influences.
Of course it ends with the obligatory climate cultism, “societies today need to take measures to avoid dangerous anthropogenic climate interference.” Hilarious. Were people in the MWP suffering from nice weather and bumper crops?
Hilarious. Were people in the MWP suffering from nice weather and bumper crops?
No – for a good bit of the time they were suffering harsh winter frosts and famines. Here’s just a small selection of examples from around the time of peak MWP.
Winter of 1124 / 1125 A.D. In 1124, the frozen Rhine River in Germany was crossed by pedestrians.62 This winter of 1124-25 was harsher than usual, because of the accumulation of snow that fell incessantly. A significant number of children and even women died from the extreme cold. In ponds, the fish were trapped under the ice. The ice was so thick and firm that loaded wagons and the horses traveled on the Rhine River as on the mainland. A strange incident occurred Brabant: Countless numbers of eels were driven by the cold from the swamps and found refuge in barns, where they sought to hide; but the cold was so great that they died from lack of food and rotted. The cattle died in many areas. The bad weather was prolonged so that only in May did trees begin to bud and the grain and other cultivated plants begin to grow.62 The [grape] vine and fruit trees in France were killed [by the extreme cold]. 58, 80 In 1125 in France, the winter had cold more severe than usual, and was accompanied by a large amount of snow. Alternating snows, rains and frozen juice [freezing rain/sleet] continued until March. Then continual rains destroyed all the seeds.79 During the winter, far greater and more frequent snows than ordinary fell whereby many poor people’s children were killed, as were the fishes in ponds, even eels themselves. After this followed a great plague on man and beast, and great intemperature of air, even till March. From the variety of weather, snow, rain, hail, frost, etc. came great damage. The spring came on slowly from cold nights, and daily heavy stormy showers. All seeds were drowned. Hence a plague in France. 72 During the winter of 1124-25 in France, the thick ice on the rivers could carry loaded wagons. Many children and women died from the cold. Alternating thaws, rains and snows gave way to very severe cold
The frost in England was very severe.47, 93 The year 1128 had the most terrible hard winter [in England]. In Easter fell much snow.72
Winter of 1132 / 1133 A.D. During the winter the cold was so intense in Italy, that the Po River was frozen from Cremona to the Adriatic Sea. The wine froze and burst the casks, and the trees split with a great noise.1 In 1133, the Po River in Italy froze.58, 80 The Po River in Italy was frozen from Cremona to the sea.38 In 1133, the Rhône River in France froze.58, 80 During the winter of 1133 the Rhône River in southern France froze as well as the wine cellars froze.79
Winter of 1149 / 1150 A.D. The winter was severe in December 1149. The River Thames in England froze.28 In England, the winter of 1150 was remarkable for a severe frost, which commenced on the ninth of December, and continued till the beginning of March, during a great part of which time, the River Thames was frozen so hard as to allow carts and other carriages to pass over the ice.29 The frost in England continued from the 10th of December to the 19th of February.47, 93 From 10 December 1149 to 19 February 1150, there was a very hard frost in England. The River Thames was so frozen that men went over [the ice] on foot and horseback. A terrible whirlwind, which broke down many houses, tore up trees by the root [tornado]. The earth was very barren.72 In 1149, the sea was frozen off the coast of Holland. 62 In the year 1149, the winter was more severe in Flanders than usual and lasted from early December to March. The sea was completely frozen and passable from a distance of more than three miles from the coast. The frozen waves appeared in the distance like towers. In Tournai, Belgium, there was great shortage of food. 62
The winter of 1150 in northern France was no less rigorous and continued for three months. Several people had their limbs frozen. This winter did not allow the spring farm work.79
1154 A.D. There was a great frost in England. 47, 93 There was a general famine over all Europe and a great frost in England, thunder, lightning, rains, and a horrible tempest. Famines in Scotland with the plague.7
https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/weather1.pdf
The Thames froze over for several weeks at a time on at least 8 occasions between 1050 and 1220. The Thames did freeze partly (not as far as central London) in 1963 but there have been no major freezes in the last 150 years
Of course some winters were worse than others during the Medieval Warm Period.
The Rhine and Thames are not now as they were then. Factories and cities heat them. They are embanked. Their flow is controlled by dams.
In the 20th century, the mighty the Columbia River used to freeze over at Portland, OR, but now doesn’t, even when it’s just as cold for just as long as it was when you could drive to Vancouver, WA across it.
Yes I’m sure they were but they appear to have been more frequent during the glorious MWP than, say, now. For example
1035 A.D. A frost on Midsummer Day, so vehement, that the grain and fruits were destroyed. 2, 40, 41,42, 43 A frost on Midsummer Day (21 June) struck England killing crops.28 – destroyed the fruits of the earth.90 A frost in England on Midsummer Day; all grass, grain and fruit destroyed; a dearth.47, 93
and this
995 A.D. The summer was very cold throughout Europe. Severe frost and ice in July 995 A.D.
Severe frost and ice in July?? I can’t ever recall “frost and ice” in July.
John,
You can’t? Where do you live? Here are some recent July and August frosts in Europe:
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-weather-summer-idUKL0961090020070709?rpc=401&feedType=RSS
http://notrickszone.com/2015/07/10/mid-july-frost-surprises-central-europe-this-morning/
http://notrickszone.com/2016/08/12/surface-frost-strikes-germany-mid-august-temperatures-shatter-old-records/#sthash.ve24jO6U.dpbs
Frosts in the Middle Ages were more devastating than now because agriculture, storage and transport were so less developed.
Besides which, the Medieval WP was just getting going in AD 995, although soon thereafter, the frigid Labrador Current was free of ice enough for Leif Erikson to sail from Greenland to North America. Some restrict the MWP to AD 950 to 1250, but IMO it lasted well into the 14th century, despite bad weather in the early 1300s.
Lamb did find hard winters in the 1100s, however, IRRC, which century by any accounting was during the Medieval WP. Summers though were generally balmy.
Please see Table II:
http://www.climateaudit.info/pdf/others/lamb.ppp.1965.pdf
Even with all its adjustments, the 50-year average in the CET for AD 1950-2000 didn’t reach the warmth of the balmiest three half-centuries, 1150-1300, in the middle of the MWP. I don’t know what the actual figure is, but looking at the Met’s graphs, it should be over 9.5, with below 9 in the 1960s and above 10 in the 1990s, for an average thus similar to 1100-50 and 1300-1400.
800-1000 9.2 degrees C annual average T
1000-1100 9.4
1100-1150 9.6
1150-1200 10.2
1200-1250 10.1
1250-1300 10.2
1300-1350 9.8
1350-1400 9.5
1400-1450 9.1
1450-1500 9.0
1500-1550 9.3
1550-1600 8.8
1600-1650 8.8
1650-1700 8.7
1700-1750 9.24
1750-1800 9.06
1800-1850 9.12
1850-1900 9.12
1900-1950 9.41
1950-2000 9.??
However, should the interval 2000-2050 equal peak warmth of the Medieval WP, it would not be a fair comparison, given the industrialized urban heat islands and watered, canaled, highwayed and mined rural areas of central England in the Modern WP. Since the Middle Ages, central England has been deforested and partially reforested.
John,
And please consider that those frosts in July and August of 2015 and 2016 took place in the supposedly warmest years evah!
Europe lies farther north than many Americans realize, and it doesn’t take much a shift in atmospheric circulation to bring Arctic weather down to the continent. London, Berlin and Prague all lie north of the 49th parallel, which composes most of the US-Canadian border. Paris is at 48.9 degrees N.
Consider further that our present allegedly warm decade still probably hasn’t been as warm as those at the height of the Medieval WP. Nor, if the books weren’t cooked, would they probably be as balmy as the 1930s.
She doesn’t break the rice bowl.