Below are the RSS annual averages for 1998 and from 2009 to 2015 and monthly values for 2016. Prior to 2009, the annual average differences varied from -0.001 to + 0.001.
This topic was discussed in an informative article on WUWT in October, which I will build on to explain how the adjustments affect the possibility of a 2016 record in light of the October anomaly.
To begin let us see how the RSS adjustments may effect the comparison between 1998 and 2016. The average value for the first 8 months using the October 3 numbers is 0.6446. The average value for the first 8 months using the October 4 numbers is 0.6635. The difference between these numbers is 0.0189.
The average of all 10 numbers under the October 4 column is 0.6234. Using this number, what would be required for 2016 to tie 1998 is an average of 0.183 for each of the last two months of this year. In other words, the last two months need to drop by an average of 0.167 from the October anomaly which was 0.350.
As I said above, the average difference between the new and old numbers for the first eight months of 2016 was 0.0189. Now let us assume that the old numbers for the first ten months of 2016 were 0.0189 lower than the present numbers. That would give an average of 0.6045. With that number, the average for November and December that would be required for 2016 to set a record is 0.2775. That is an average drop of 0.0725 from the present October anomaly of 0.350. It would be different if we had an older and lower October anomaly.
Of course it is much easier to drop an average of 0.0725 rather than 0.167. When the December numbers are in, we will know the impact of RSS adjustment on 2016 average and whether it may break the 1998 record.
Comparatively, here is what is necessary for UAH to set a record in 2016. After large drops from February to June, the anomalies changed course and rose. The average of the last four months is 0.418, which is 0.08 above the June anomaly of 0.338! Keep in mind that ENSO numbers dropped every month this year. To set a record in 2016, the average anomaly for UAH for the last two months has to be 0.219. This represents a drop of 0.189 from the October anomaly.
It is still possible for the 1998 record to stand after 2016 for both RSS and UAH, however that would require a significant drop in the November anomaly from the October anomaly in each case, but much more significant for RSS, than UAH.
Another impact of the RSS adjustment is on the length of the recent pause. Before, the pause length was 18 years and 9 months. Naturally, with every average anomaly going up since 2009, this prior pause length has now shortened. The longest period of time of over 18 years where the slope is the minimum is from December 1997. Prior to the latest adjustments, the slope from December 1997 to August 2016 was 0.277/century. In order to compare apples to apples, the new slope from December 1997 to August 2016 is 0.396/century. That is an increase of 43%. It is now significantly harder for the pause to return using RSS.
Note: The October 4 numbers utilized for the analysis above may vary slightly from the present RSS numbers by up to 0.002 due to additional minor recent adjustments by. For the latest numbers from RSS, see the table below.
In the sections below, we will present you with the latest facts. The information will be presented in two sections and an appendix. The first section will show for how long there has been no statistically significant warming on several data sets. The second section will show how 2016 so far compares with 2015 and the warmest years and months on record so far. For three of the data sets, 2015 also happens to be the warmest year. The appendix will illustrate sections 1 and 2 in a different way. Graphs and a table will be used to illustrate the data. Only the satellite data go to October.
For this analysis, data was retrieved from Nick Stokes’ Trendviewer available on his website. This analysis indicates for how long there has not been statistically significant warming according to Nick’s criteria. Data go to their latest update for each set. In every case, note that the lower error bar is negative so a slope of 0 cannot be ruled out from the month indicated.
On several different data sets, there has been no statistically significant warming for between 0 and 23 years according to Nick’s criteria. Cl stands for the confidence limits at the 95% level.
The details for several sets are below.
For UAH6.0: Since October 1993: Cl from -0.029 to 1.792
This is 23 years and 1 month.
For RSS: Since July 1994: Cl from -0.011 to 1.784 This is 22 years and 4 months.
For Hadcrut4.4: The warming is statistically significant for all periods above three years.
For Hadsst3: Since February 1997: Cl from -0.029 to 2.124 This is 19 years and 8 months.
For GISS: The warming is statistically significant for all periods above three years.
This section shows data about 2016 and other information in the form of a table. The table shows the five data sources along the top and other places so they should be visible at all times. The sources are UAH, RSS, Hadcrut4, Hadsst3, and GISS.
Down the column, are the following:
1. 15ra: This is the final ranking for 2015 on each data set.
2. 15a: Here I give the average anomaly for 2015.
3. year: This indicates the warmest year on record so far for that particular data set. Note that the satellite data sets have 1998 as the warmest year and the others have 2015 as the warmest year.
4. ano: This is the average of the monthly anomalies of the warmest year just above.
5. mon: This is the month where that particular data set showed the highest anomaly prior to 2016. The months are identified by the first three letters of the month and the last two numbers of the year.
6. ano: This is the anomaly of the month just above.
7. sig: This the first month for which warming is not statistically significant according to Nick’s criteria. The first three letters of the month are followed by the last two numbers of the year.
8. sy/m: This is the years and months for row 7.
9. Jan: This is the January 2016 anomaly for that particular data set.
10. Feb: This is the February 2016 anomaly for that particular data set, etc.
19. ave: This is the average anomaly of all months to date.
20. rnk: This is the rank that each particular data set would have for 2016 without regards to error bars and assuming no changes to the current average anomaly. Think of it as an update 50 minutes into a game.
If you wish to verify all of the latest anomalies, go to the following:
For UAH, version 6.0beta5 was used.
For RSS, see: ftp://ftp.ssmi.com/msu/monthly_time_series/rss_monthly_msu_amsu_channel_tlt_anomalies_land_and_ocean_v03_3.txt
For Hadcrut4, see: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/data/current/time_series/HadCRUT.126.96.36.199.monthly_ns_avg.txt
For Hadsst3, see: https://crudata.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/HadSST3-gl.dat
For GISS, see:
To see all points since January 2016 in the form of a graph, see the WFT graph below.
As you can see, all lines have been offset so they all start at the same place in January 2016. This makes it easy to compare January 2016 with the latest anomaly.
The thick double line is the WTI which shows the average of RSS, UAH6.0beta5, HadCRUT4.4 and GISS. Unfortunately, WTI will not be updated until HadCRUT4.5 appears.
In this part, we are summarizing data for each set separately.
For UAH: There is no statistically significant warming since October 1993: Cl from -0.029 to 1.792. (This is using version 6.0 according to Nick’s program.)
The UAH average anomaly so far for 2016 is 0.537. This would set a record if it stayed this way. 1998 was the warmest at 0.484. Prior to 2016, the highest ever monthly anomaly was in April of 1998 when it reached 0.743. The average anomaly in 2015 was 0.261 and it was ranked 3rd.
Presently, for RSS: There is no statistically significant warming since July 1994: Cl from -0.011 to 1.784.
The RSS average anomaly so far for 2016 is 0.624. This would set a record if it stayed this way. 1998 was the warmest at 0.550. Prior to 2016, the highest ever monthly anomaly was in April of 1998 when it reached 0.857. The average anomaly in 2015 was 0.381 and it was ranked 3rd.
For Hadcrut4.5: The warming is significant for all periods above three years.
The Hadcrut4.5 average anomaly so far is 0.841. This would set a record if it stayed this way. Prior to 2016, the highest ever monthly anomaly was in December of 2015 when it reached 1.024. The average anomaly in 2015 was 0.760 and this set a new record.
For Hadsst3: There is no statistically significant warming since February 1997: Cl from -0.029 to 2.124.
The Hadsst3 average anomaly so far for 2016 is 0.646. This would set a record if it stayed this way. Prior to 2016, the highest ever monthly anomaly was in September of 2015 when it reached 0.725. The average anomaly in 2015 was 0.592 and this set a new record.
For GISS: The warming is significant for all periods above three years.
The GISS average anomaly so far for 2016 is 1.03. This would set a record if it stayed this way. Prior to 2016, the highest ever monthly anomaly was in December of 2015 when it reached 1.11. The average anomaly in 2015 was 0.87 and it set a new record.
Does it surprise you that the RSS adjustment made the pause much more difficult to resume and made it much easier for 2016 to break the 1998 record?