From the MAX-PLANCK-GESELLSCHAFT and the department of “it’s all YOUR fault and it’s worse than we thought” comes this guilt trip over Arctic sea ice from Greenpeace activist and NSIDC scientist (now just a person because she stopped being a scientist when she started accepting Greenpeace assistance, IMO) Julienne Stroeve. Of course, Stroeve has no explanation of what caused dramatic sea ice melt in 1922, but she’s certain you caused it today.
My contribution to Arctic sea ice melt
Measurements reveal the relationship between individual CO2 emissions and the Arctic’s shrinking summer sea ice
For each tonne of carbon dioxide (CO2) that any person on our planet emits, three square metres of Arctic summer sea ice disappear. This is the finding of a study that has been published in the journal Science this week by Dirk Notz, leader of a Max Planck Research Group at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and Julienne Stroeve from the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre. These figures enable us for the first time to grasp the individual contribution to global climate change. The study also explains why climate models usually simulate a lower sensitivity than can be detected in observations. It concludes that the two degrees Celsius global warming target agreed on in the most recent UN Climate Conference will not allow Arctic summer sea ice to survive.
The rapid retreat of Arctic sea ice is one of the most direct indicators of the ongoing climate change on our planet. Over the past forty years, the ice cover in summer has shrunk by more than half, with climate model simulations predicting that the remaining half might be gone by mid-century unless greenhouse gas emissions are reduced rapidly. However, a number of studies have indicated that climate models underestimate the loss of Arctic sea ice, which is why the models might not be the most suitable tools to quantify the future evolution of the ice cover.
To address this issue, a new study in the journal Science now derives the future evolution of Arctic summer sea ice directly from the observational record. To do so, the authors examine the link between carbon-dioxide emissions and the area of Arctic summer sea ice, and find that both are linearly related. “The observed numbers are very simple”, explains lead author Dirk Notz. “For each tonne of carbon dioxide that a person emits anywhere on this planet, three square metres of Arctic summer sea ice is lost”.
Frankfurt – San Francisco return: five square metres of sea ice less
“So far, climate change has often felt like a rather abstract notion. Our results allow us to overcome this perception”, says co-author Julienne Stroeve. For example, it is now straight-forward to calculate that the carbon dioxide emissions for each seat on a return flight from, say, London to San Francisco causes about five square metres of Arctic sea ice to disappear.”
While climate models also simulate the observed linear relationship between sea ice area and CO2 emissions, they usually have a much lower sensitivity of the ice cover than has been observed. The Science study finds that this is most likely because the models underestimate the atmospheric warming in the Arctic that is induced by a given carbon-dioxide emission. “It seems that it’s not primarily the sea ice models that are responsible for the mismatch. The ice just melts too slowly in the models because their Arctic warming is too weak”, says Stroeve.
Another 1000 gigatonnes of CO2 and sea ice will be stripped by September
Regarding the future evolution of Arctic sea ice, the internationally agreed objective to limit global warming to two degree Celsius is not sufficient to allow Arctic summer sea ice to survive. Given the observed sensitivity of the ice cover, the sea ice will be gone throughout September once another 1000 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide have been emitted. This amount of emissions is usually taken as a rough estimate of the allowable emissions to reach the two degree Celsius global-warming target. Only for the much lower emissions that would allow one to keep global warming below 1.5 °C, as called for by the Paris agreement, Arctic summer sea ice has a realistic chance of long-term survival, the study authors Dirk Notz and Julienne Stroeve conclude.
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Original publication
Dirk Notz und Julienne Stroeve
Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission
Science, 4 November 2016; doi: 10.1126/science.aag2345
This doesn’t apply to me. I’m sending my CO2 to help melt the frost in Leonardo DiCaprio’s many Sub Zero freezers so he won’t sprain his wrist scooping out the ice cream.
Note to self: Must buy a bigger truck.
I’ll accept blame for the ice melt in Antarctica. Wait, the average ice extent has been growing down under. I guess I’ll take credit then. But how does CO2 know to melt arctic ice but leave antarctic ice alone?
I for one am sick of stories about arctic sea ice.
Indeed Steve, we can’t ignore the reality of what is happening anymore, so lets just ignore it.
Well its a gimmick…
but who can deny the ice is in a sorrier state than it ever has been?
Still at a record low for this time of year… it has been at a record low for over a month.
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent
The ice is thin, the oldest/thickest ice is gone.
http://earthsky.org/earth/decline-of-arctics-thickest-sea-ice
The vagaries of weather in the melting season will always surprise us and a winter low is not always carried through to the summer, but it is not looking good for next year.
President Trump looking at an ice free summer arctic ocean is a real possibility… I do wonder what you will all say then.
Old/thick ice, so what! Ask yourself those countries living and needing passage in the region, why are they building new icebreakers?
Not because there’s more ice or because it is thicker, for certain…
“Griff November 10, 2016 at 8:08 am
Not because there’s more ice or because it is thicker, for certain…”
Ah I see. Not more ice, just thicker ice, thicker ice in shipping lanes. You are a laugh Griff!
Now tell us who first went public with the announcement that the Arctic would be ice free? It was Al Gore, and his predicted year was 2013.
Have a look at the temperature chart.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
So in the mind of the climate obsessed, a few weeks of data = a climate change?
That is what open water looks like. Heat loss. Personally I find the above average line much better than a below average.
“than it has ever been”? That’s a pretty bold statement. I think it was missing once or twice in the past and actual records don’t go back very far at all. Maybe a sorrier state than the climate alarmists imagine the ice should be, but certainly not “than it ever has been”.
“‘Over the past forty years, the ice cover in summer has shrunk by more than half”‘
So why hasn’t the sea level risen to the catastrophic levels that these people keep shouting about?
It’s the Arctic, the ice is floating, so it’s mass is already displaced.
Because it is floating on water and displaces the same amount whether it is solid or liquid…or did you forget the SARC/ tag ? lol
There is no proof of which is cause and effect. CO2 as cause demands that we have a positive feedback mechanism which also demands that seasonal changes exhibit that same positive feedback. This ability of nature to determine the difference between seasonal changes in temperature and CO2 and climate changes caused by man made emissions has never been satisfactorily explained.
Until climate scientists accept there are questions and without answers we cannot do anything but resent our expenditure on both their research and the resulting energy price hikes that result from it. There will be enough disbelief to produce no action. Hopefully Trump will start the ball rolling of removing funding and transferring it to proving the weaknesses in climate science instead of propping it up.
I live in the Southern Hemisphere and the Antarctic is growing so where do I unload all my guilt credits?
the Antarctic sea ice is also low this year…
Griff, sea ice is dynamic, it fluctuates, and whether small or large area, has negligible to nil impact on world weather systems. A lot of sea ice insulates the ocean below it, small sea ice allows ocean heat content to radiate into the atmosphere and space. The poles are the tail of the dog that is receiving its heat in the tropics.
You climate obsessed fanatics bet on the tail wagging the dog.
And you have lost.
Meanwhile, the temperature continues to relentlessly stay at abnormally high levels in the Arctic. Nature does not give a monkeys cuss about politics. Just because you ignore the data does not stop it existing. Next year may be the fabled time when the majority of Arctic ice does melt in the summer. If it does not freeze, there is little to melt.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
..So, instead of MINUS 17 it is MINUS 13…oh the horror !! The ice still won’t melt…
“Meanwhile, the temperature continues to relentlessly stay at abnormally high levels in the Arctic. ”
Yes, but it is still -10 or less, and even Global Warming has not changed the freezing/melting point of ice.
From the same site it is clearly seen that the ice still grows.
Yes, the ice still grows, but at a substantially slower rate than recorded as average. When the ice is growing at such a slow rate, it does not achieve the same cover once the freezing season ends. There is then less ice to melt. I suspect this year will be significant.
“Gareth Phillips November 10, 2016 at 9:08 am
Yes, the ice still grows, but at a substantially slower rate than recorded as average.”
What? How can you record an average?
Gareth,
You are the tool ignoring the facts, the physics, and rational thinking.
I guess the observation are false? Or do you think the current temperature record or refreezing looks odd to say the least? Are these the facts I am ignoring, or is it you with your head in the sand?
Gareth: The observations may correct, but it’s the interpretation and importance of the observations that are in question.
Gareth,it has plenty of time to freeze up till around April 2017 or so. Your own link shows that it is well below freezing and has been for a few weeks.
The area freezing is indeed below zero. But when the observations show that the temperature is nowhere near as cold as that averaged in the record, that area of refreezing does not extend as far south as it would under usual conditions. In other words, if only a few square miles around the the pole were low enough to refreeze the ice, pointing out that the temps were indeed low enough to refreeze in that location is a bit pointless.
No, no, no. The CO2 just transports the “missing” ice down to Antarctica. This scientist needs to think globally, not regionally.
Sea at record lows.
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/N_stddev_timeseries.png
http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/daily_images/S_stddev_timeseries.png
..So explain to me again, why is less ice bad ?? You know, that frozen stuff that kills Humans…Do you really think 50% of North America should be under 2 miles of ice ? What is the perfect temperature you seek and where should it be ? The entire Earth CANNOT be the same temperature….
For starters less ice means less of an albedo effect and more global warming with melting ice sheets resulting in rising sea levels flooding coastal regions where much of the world lives.
I’m not saying the reduction in arctic ice is good or bad, it is just a fact. I am challenging those who say that Arctic ice cover is unchanged and nothing unusual is happening.
” albedo effect ”
The albedo and ice cover keeps water cold (at summer, at not-so-hi lats), true. But I like much more the evaporation heat loss effect which keeps the air near zero C now. You know, it is pretty darn cold up here at night if the air is dry.
Sadly this is not going to last.
Ice sheets are not melting so much that it would be noticeable. Not even Carteret been disappearing. Danes are still at sea level.
The 1922 Spitsbergen event was local.
https://www.google.ca/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.globalcoral.org/_oldgcra/LONG%2520TERM%2520ARCTIC%2520ICE%2520TRENDS%2520AND%2520GLOBAL%2520WARMING.1.pdf&ved=0ahUKEwjx_aXyzp7QAhWryoMKHfp6BHEQFgheMA4&usg=AFQjCNEzVO5aOR7SqRGtIOSxhaOYfmVd9w&sig2=qyoX9wcwc7AXwnuz_jPDLg
Awesome! Now we have the tools we need to figure out how to get rid of that pesky Arctic sea ice, and open up the North to commerce among the continents!
Expect the most ports will be inundated by rising sea levels
Expect not.
According to my model (“Interesting Climate Sensitivity Analysis,” 10/10/16), ongoing sea ice melt is due to the persistence of chlorine in the stratosphere, which destroys ozone catalytically, allowing more solar UV-B to reach Earth’s surface. Also, the eruption of Iceland’s basaltic volcano, Bardarbunga, from August 2014 to February 2015 released chlorine, which added to the anthropogenic chlorine in the stratosphere that was photodissociated on polar stratospheric clouds from anthropogenic CFCs.