UAH Global Temperature Update for October 2016: +0.41 deg. C
by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
October Temperature Down a Little from September
NOTE: This is the nineteenth monthly update with our new Version 6.0 dataset. Differences versus the old Version 5.6 dataset are discussed here. Note we are now at “beta5” for Version 6, and the paper describing the methodology has just been accepted for publication.
The Version 6.0 global average lower tropospheric temperature (LT) anomaly for October 2016 is +0.41 deg. C, down a little from the September value of +0.44 deg. C (click for full size version):
The global, hemispheric, and tropical LT anomalies from the 30-year (1981-2010) average for the last 22 months are:
YEAR MO GLOBE NHEM. SHEM. TROPICS
2015 01 +0.30 +0.44 +0.15 +0.13
2015 02 +0.19 +0.34 +0.04 -0.07
2015 03 +0.18 +0.28 +0.07 +0.04
2015 04 +0.09 +0.19 -0.01 +0.08
2015 05 +0.27 +0.34 +0.20 +0.27
2015 06 +0.31 +0.38 +0.25 +0.46
2015 07 +0.16 +0.29 +0.03 +0.48
2015 08 +0.25 +0.20 +0.30 +0.53
2015 09 +0.23 +0.30 +0.16 +0.55
2015 10 +0.41 +0.63 +0.20 +0.53
2015 11 +0.33 +0.44 +0.22 +0.52
2015 12 +0.45 +0.53 +0.37 +0.61
2016 01 +0.54 +0.69 +0.39 +0.84
2016 02 +0.83 +1.17 +0.50 +0.99
2016 03 +0.73 +0.94 +0.52 +1.09
2016 04 +0.71 +0.85 +0.58 +0.94
2016 05 +0.55 +0.65 +0.44 +0.72
2016 06 +0.34 +0.51 +0.17 +0.38
2016 07 +0.39 +0.48 +0.30 +0.48
2016 08 +0.43 +0.55 +0.32 +0.50
2016 09 +0.44 +0.50 +0.39 +0.37
[2016] 10 +0.41 +0.42 +0.39 +0.46
To see how we are now progressing toward a record warm year in the satellite data, the following chart shows the average rate of cooling for the rest of 2016 that would be required to tie 1998 as warmest year in the 38-year satellite record:
Based upon this chart, it would require strong cooling for the next two months to avoid 2016 being a new record-warm year (since the satellite record began in 1979) in the UAH dataset.
The “official” UAH global image for October, 2016 should be available in the next several days here.
The new Version 6 files (use the ones labeled “beta5”) should be updated soon, and are located here:
Lower Troposphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0beta/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0beta5.txt
Mid-Troposphere:http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0beta/tmt/uahncdc_mt_6.0beta5.txt
Tropopause:http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0beta/ttp/uahncdc_tp_6.0beta5.txt
Lower Stratosphere: http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0beta/tls/uahncdc_ls_6.0beta5.txt
NOTE: About an hour after publication, the story was edited to correct a typo from 2017 to 2016 on the data table (h/t to Marcus)
How to treat “trendy” if during the 2016/2017 winter temperatures in the northern hemisphere will fall to the level of the seventies?
Snow cover reach to Central Europe.
http://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_gif/DATA/cursnow_asiaeurope.gif
Interesting to note the snow is further south than usual not only in Eurasia, but even in Canada, which I think has been slightly warmer than normal.
Apparently the RSS data doesn’t get its own post, but I see that although it is also heading for a record hot year to surpass 1998, its October anomaly (covering 70 S to 82.5 N) is 0.23 deg colder than September’s. This is also the coldest month since July last year.
Whom to believe?
@richard
do your own measurements – even if you begin only today in your own backyard –
{I think Anthony has a DIY kit?}
and trust only yourself.
winter is coming…
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/11/01/uah-global-temperature-update-down-slightly-for-october/#comment-2330988
On la Nina: reposting from Dr Spencer’s blog.
BoM have updated their ENSO forecast.
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
BoM is the only portal I know of that assesses (briefly) and compiles forecasts from other international groups. However, each group has different thresholds for el Nino/laNina events. BoM characterizes all other groups forecast under BoM metrics, not the metrics used by the other groups.
EG, BoM threshold for el Nino/la Nina is sustained +/- 0.8C anomaly in the NINO3.4 region, whereas NOAA requires only +/- 0.5C anomaly being sustained for that region. JMA (Japanese Meteorological Association) uses +/-0.5 C threshold, but in NINO3 region, which can be quite different to combined NINO3.4.
You can get an idea of the spread of international models here:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/model-summary/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean