Madness: climate 'projections' can now be used as evidence to list endangered species

From the Center for Biological Diversity and the “data, we don’t need no steekin data!” department:

Appeals Court Reinstates Endangered Species Act Protections for Bearded Seals

Judges Cite Loss of Sea Ice, Predictions by ‘Overwhelming Majority of World’s Climate Scientists’

Bearded Seal pup (Erignathus barbatus) Photo: NOAA
Bearded Seal pup (Erignathus barbatus) Photo: NOAA

ANCHORAGE, Alaska— A federal appeals court today upheld the National Marine Fisheries Service’s decision to protect bearded seals in Alaska as threatened under the Endangered Species Act. The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals ruling reverses a 2014 lower court decision that rejected the listing as speculative, but the judges today said the listing is supported by sound science predicting steady loss of the Arctic sea ice bearded seals need to survive.

Today’s decision offers bearded seals the protections they truly need, according to the Center for Biological Diversity, which petitioned to list the species in 2008 and intervened in the case to defend the listing against challenges from oil companies and the state of Alaska.

“This is a huge victory for bearded seals and shows the vital importance of the Endangered Species Act in protecting species threatened by climate change,” said Kristen Monsell, the Center attorney who argued the case. “This decision will give bearded seals a fighting chance while we work to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions melting their sea-ice habitat and keep dirty fossil fuels in the ground.”

The seals’ winter sea-ice habitat in the Bering and Okhotsk seas off Alaska and Russia is projected to decline by at least 40 percent by 2050, while summer sea ice across the Arctic is projected to largely disappear in the next 20 years. These seals also face threats from proposed offshore oil and gas development off Alaska, where an oil spill in icy waters would be impossible to clean up.

Today’s opinion found that the Fisheries Service, in listing the bearded seal, “adopted the position of the overwhelming majority of the world’s climate scientists” and rejected Alaska’s argument against the use of the best available climate science.

Endangered Species Act listing of bearded seals offers them increased protection against the greenhouse gas emissions that are driving climate change, as well as oil and gas development. Listing of the seals does not affect subsistence harvest of the species by Alaska natives.

“Bearded seals have a shot at survival thanks to the powerful protections of the Endangered Species Act, but only if we take swift and meaningful action to address climate change,” Monsell said. “If we don’t, amazing creatures like these whiskered ice seals and other animals living in the Arctic could be doomed to extinction.”

The Center for Biological Diversity is a national, nonprofit conservation organization with more than 1.1 million members and online activists dedicated to the protection of endangered species and wild places.


From Think Progress:

“There is no debate that temperatures will continue to increase over the remainder of the century and that the effects will be particularly acute in the Arctic,” the decision, written by Circuit Judge Richard Paez, read. “The current scientific consensus is that Arctic sea ice will continue to recede through 2100, and NMFS considered the best available research to reach that conclusion.”

But perhaps more importantly, the court found that the NMFS’ definition of “foreseeable future” as 500 to 100 years was not too broad, even if climate models can be volatile that far out.

“The fact that climate projections for 2050 through 2100 may be volatile does not deprive those projections of value in the rulemaking process,” the decision read. “The ESA does not require NMFS to make listing decisions only if underlying research is ironclad and absolute.”


Right, “ironclad” research and climate projections.

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Robertvd
October 26, 2016 4:45 pm

I suppose the use of Icebreakers will be forbidden now (for non scientific use).

John Michelmore
October 26, 2016 11:38 pm

FG, No they intent to install ice rinks sothat the seals will be able to relax in the cool if they don’t like bathing in warmer water! So your very close to the truth with your ice machine idea, but your just not thinking in the right scale if there are 300,000 of these endangered seals!

NorwegianSceptic
October 27, 2016 4:36 am

So much for legal gatekeeping……. (Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals).

Janice Moore
Reply to  NorwegianSceptic
October 27, 2016 6:50 am

Yes, indeed, NS.
Just FYI for anyone interested:
Daubert Standard
Standard used by a trial judge to make a preliminary assessment of whether an expert’s scientific testimony is based on reasoning or methodology that is scientifically valid and can properly be applied to the facts at issue. Under this standard, the factors that may be considered in determining whether the methodology is valid are:
(1) whether the theory or technique in question can be and has been tested;
(2) whether it has been subjected to peer review and publication;
(3) its known or potential error rate;
(4) the existence and maintenance of standards controlling its operation; and
(5) whether it has attracted widespread acceptance within a relevant scientific community.
See Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, Inc., 509 U.S. 579 (1993). The Daubert standard is the test currently used in the federal courts and some state courts. In the federal courts, it replaced the Frye standard.

(Source: https://www.law.cornell.edu/wex/daubert_standard )

October 27, 2016 5:06 am

Something does not add up here. Just last month the National Marine Fisheries Service refused pressure to put humpback whales on the endangered list. They said:
“We cannot merely speculate that climate change and ocean acidification contribute significantly to the extinction risk of any humpback whale [populations], but must base our listing determinations on evidence sufficient to indicate that a particular effect is likely to lead to particular biological responses at the species level,” the agency said in its final response to the climate critics.
The agency said it “evaluated the effects of climate change and ocean acidification on each humpback whale [group], as discussed in our proposed rule, but found no basis to conclude they contribute significantly to extinction risk for most [whales], now or in the foreseeable future,” according to the agency.
https://rclutz.wordpress.com/2016/09/11/rare-common-climate-sense/

Janice Moore
Reply to  Ron Clutz
October 27, 2016 6:46 am

What GREAT news. We cannot merely speculate… but, must base our listing determinations on evidence…! Cool. Thanks for sharing, Mr. Clutz.

graphicconception
October 27, 2016 9:27 am

Which model was the prediction based on? I ask because here is what Matt Ridley said recently in his 2016 GWPF Lecture:
“What’s more, all the high estimates of warming are based on an economic and demographic scenario called RCP 8.5, which is a very, very unrealistic one.”
“It assumes that population growth stops decelerating and speeds up again.”
“It assumes that trade and innovation largely cease.”
“It assumes that the ability of the oceans to absorb CO2 fails.”
“It assumes that despite all this the income of the average person trebles.”
“And most absurd of all, it assumes that we go back to using coal for almost everything, including to make motor fuel, so that by 2100 we are using ten times as much coal as we are today.”
Did the court check out any assumptions and were they deemed to be reasonable?
http://www.thegwpf.org/matt-ridley-global-warming-versus-global-greening/