Here we go again: Climate Study embraces ‘Day After Tomorrow’ movie scenario

From the University of Sheffield and “The Day After Tomorrow” department comes this climate disaster movie plot wherein global warming, er, climate change, cause the polar jet stream to go wacky and freeze us extra good in winter. Really. No mention of what caused similar weather during the “Little Ice Age” between roughly AD 1300 and 1850, except that they are sure they’ve ruled out “natural variation” now.

day-after-tomorrow

The movie plot from IMDB:

As Paleoclimatologist named Jack Hall is in Antartica, he discovers that a huge ice sheet has sheared off. But what he does not know is that this event will trigger a massive climate shift that will affect the world population. Meanwhile, his son Sam is with friends in New York to attend an event. There they discover that it has been raining non-stop for the past 3 days, and after a series of weather-related disasters begin to occur over the world, everybody realizes the world is entering a new Ice Age and the world population begins trying to evacuate to the warmer climates of the south. Jack makes a daring attempt to rescue his son and his friends who are stuck in New York and who have managed to survive not only a massive wave but also freezing cold temperatures that could possibly kill them.

The paper press release via Eurekalert, they even have a scientist named “Hall”:

Extreme cold winters fueled by jet stream and climate change

  • Scientists agree for first time that climate change may be intensifying the effects of the jet stream, causing extreme cold weather in the UK and US
  • Study could improve long-term forecasting of winter weather in most populous parts of the world
  • More accurate forecasting could help communities, businesses and economies prepare for severe weather and make life and cost-saving decisions

Scientists have agreed for the first time that recent severe cold winter weather in the UK and US may have been influenced by climate change in the Arctic, according to a new study.

The research, carried out by an international team of scientists including the University of Sheffield, has found that warming in the Arctic may be intensifying the effects of the jet stream’s position, which in the winter can cause extreme cold weather, such as the winter of 2014/15 which saw record snowfall levels in New York.

Scientists previously had two schools of thought. One group believe that natural variability in the jet stream’s position has caused the recent severe cold winter weather seen in places such as the Eastern United States and the UK. The other camp includes scientists who are finding possible connections between the warming of the Arctic – such as melting sea ice, warming air temperatures, and rising sea surface temperatures – and the emerging pattern of severe cold winter weather.

Now, Professor Edward Hanna and Dr Richard Hall from the University’s Department of Geography, together with Professor. James E. Overland from the US Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), have brought together a diverse group of researchers from both sides of the debate.

The researchers have found that the recent pattern of cold winters is primarily caused by natural changes to the jet stream’s position; however, the warming of the Arctic appears to be exerting an influence on cold spells, but the location of these can vary from year to year.

Previous studies have shown that when the jet stream is wavy there are more episodes of severe cold weather plunging south from the Arctic into the mid-latitudes, which persist for weeks at a time. But when the jet stream is flowing strongly from west to east and not very wavy, we tend to see more normal winter weather in countries within the mid-latitudes.

“We’ve always had years with wavy and not so wavy jet stream winds, but in the last one to two decades the warming Arctic could well have been amplifying the effects of the wavy patterns,” Professor Hanna said. He added: “This may have contributed to some recent extreme cold winter spells along the eastern seaboard of the United States, in eastern Asia, and at times over the UK (e.g. 2009/10 and 2010/11).

“Improving our ability to predict how climate change is affecting the jet stream will help to improve our long-term prediction of winter weather in some of the most highly populated regions of the world.

“This would be hugely beneficial for communities, businesses, and entire economies in the northern hemisphere. The public could better prepare for severe winter weather and have access to extra crucial information that could help make live-saving and cost-saving decisions.”

The study, Nonlinear response of mid-latitude weather to the changing Arctic, is published today (26 October 2016) in the journal Nature Climate Change on 26 October 2016. The research was partly sponsored by the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC) and the Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) project of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP).

It further cements the University’s position at the forefront of climate change research and gives geography students at Sheffield access to the latest innovations in environmental science.

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85 thoughts on “Here we go again: Climate Study embraces ‘Day After Tomorrow’ movie scenario

  1. “This is all perfectly natural variation, but it MIGHT change because of Global WarmCooling! Panic!”

  2. warming Arctic could well have been amplifying the effects….. “This may have contributed to some recent extreme cold winter spells
    Could, may be that warming cold. The ‘Polar Express’ of the 60s and 70s is now the ‘Polar Vortex’. Must might be worser. I think climate change studies cause brain damage.

  3. “We’ve always had years with wavy and not so wavy jet stream winds, but…”

    “Wavy” the new gold standard in sciencey type talk you know?

  4. Well, if someone knew that declining ocean temps as measured by ARGO was signaling cooling, it would be opportunistic to tell some tales about ‘Day After Tomorrow’ for climate scare management purposes and interdiction to prevent informed thinking.

    http://climate4you.com/

    Average temperature along 59 N, 30-0W, 0-800m depth, corresponding to the main part of the North Atlantic Current, using Argo-data.

  5. They’re just getting their excuses in early in case the winter turns out colder than normal.

    • Bloke :”They’re just getting their excuses in early in case the winter turns out colder than normal.”
      No, they are getting their excuses in early to defend the next 100 years of their modelling.
      ( remember all of them won’t be around anyways, so all they have to cover their asses for is the next 10-15 years seeing they by then they will be living on the “rewards” they are garnering today)

    • If the guys at weatherbell are correct come mid November it’s getting darn cold in the eastern US with the worst of it in New England. If they’re correct I suspect this trucker will be dealing with some serious Lake Effect snows until the Lakes cool down. At least it seems the ski resorts in NE will have a good season. Contrary to many prior predictions about reduced snow fall and cover up there.

  6. It further cements the University’s position at the forefront of climate change research and gives geography students at Sheffield access to the latest innovations in environmental science.

    That uses up my allocation of irony for the day.

    Mommy, mommy, my teacher said I’m the biggest nincompoop in the whole world.

    • That was obviously written by a group of marketing people in the university front office. I have seen similar out of marketing folks at many universities. They seem to think this will actually have some sort of impact with potential students. With as poor as many of our applicants are at logical thought, they may have a point.

  7. I am pretty sure Dr. Hubert Lamb had plenty to say on this 4 decades ago when the Polar Vortex descended during the coldest winter in US history.

      • What H H Lamb said was:
        “There is no necessary conflict is diagnoses which identify:
        a cooling, especially in the northern hemisphere, since 1950 and which may be expected to continue (with shorter-term fluctuations superposed) for some decades further;
        warming attributable to the increase of CO2…; this effect to become stronger over the next century or two and reach a peak around AD 2100 or some time after;”

        Also in the introduction to his book “Climatic History and the Future”:
        “It is to be noted here that there is no necessary contradiction between forecast expectations of (a) some renewed (or continuation of) slight cooling of world climate for a few decades to come, e.g., from volcanic or solar activity variations: (b) an abrupt warming due to the effect of increasing carbon dioxide, lasting some centuries until fossil fuels are exhausted and a while thereafter; and this followed in turn by (c) a glaciation
        lasting (like the previous ones) for many thousands of years.”

        So he clearly thought that there would be a period of global warming due to fossil fuel use.

  8. There’s less cold air at the poles, however when the jet stream pushes that less cold air away from the poles, it will make everyone colder.

    PS: Let’s not mention that when the pole warms, the jet stream slows down.

  9. they even have a scientist named “Hall”

    “Hal, Open the door, Hal.”
    “I’m sorry, Dave, I can’t do that.”

    Hal may not be the best choice of names for things like this.

  10. Isn’t it funny how the “settled science” stakes out every conceivable result as a consequence of global warming? Sort of like: we are going to launch a project to colonize the moon but it may end up on Mars or Neptune if our calculations aren’t quite right.

  11. “It further cements the University’s position at the forefront of climate change research and gives geography students at Sheffield access to the latest innovations in environmental science.”

    The Times university guide ranks Sheffield 13th in the UK. It also shows that employers rank it as 34 (out of 62). Interesting?

    University Guide (an alternative league table) ranks it for research as 12th but for research in “Geography and Environment” as 20th joint with two others.

  12. I taught my first university course in meteorology/climatology in 1967, and my last in 2002. Zonal and meridional flow survived all those years, and there never was a shortage of recent examples along the way. This is pure junk science.

  13. “Severe cold winter wearher caused by climate change” study conclusion.

    File this under:

    – Pseudoscience/junk science
    — Climatism
    — “warming causes cooling.”

  14. article: “Scientists have agreed for the first time,”

    What scientists? You mean ALL scientists, or just your little group?

    article: “that recent severe cold winter weather in the UK and US may have been influenced by climate change in the Arctic, according to a new study.”

    “May have been”? You mean you are not sure? This is science?

  15. “Professor. James E. Overland from the US Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)”
    So which ever subgenius wrote this press release doesn’t know how acronyms work? It should be the *National* Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration _or_ USOAA. ;)

  16. Quote: More accurate forecasting could help communities, businesses and economies prepare for severe weather and make life and cost-saving decisions.

    For all of the coulds, mights and maybes sprinkled throughout this report they went too far by putting in this particular could. There is absolutely no doubt that more accurate forecasting WILL help. But what does this report have to do with more accurate forecasting?

    And the worst thing of all is that somebody dubbed these people scientists. Or were they scientists who decided to have a day off science when they wrote this garbage?

  17. Seems they are positioning themselves for the expected cooling looming on the horizon. this way they can still push their control humanity/ wealth redistribution agenda with “scientific credibility”.

    • Exactly. When a similar study (perhaps the same one?) was published last year, I had the same thought: covering their posteriors in the event of cooling.

  18. I thought global warming was due to excess heat remaining on the earth. How can excess heat make it snow more, jet stream, polar vortex, etc, aside. It more heat, that’s what the theory says and we keep getting beat over the head with CO2 holding more HEAT. Heat does not cause snow. Or did the laws of physics shift?

    • When you have a hot interior and a cold exterior below 4C you get icing. Have you ever wondered why on cold mornings in winter, when you turn the heater on in your car, the windscreen ices up, opposites attract cold chasing hot.

    • Heat = Cold !

      Heat = Warm

      Heat = Snow

      Heat = Rain

      Heat = Ice

      Heat = Hurricanes

      Heat = Blizzards

      Heat = “EVERYTHING” !

      Except “Hot” Coffee ?

      Capice

  19. I always loved “Day After Tomorrow” It is such hilariously bad science it makes me laugh! (And, to be honest, any movie showing LA destroyed makes me happy- I’m not a big fan).

    But- once again- “CO2 causes everything!” Maybe they should ban all sodas; all the CO2 released could hurt things! Also, I hear coffee beans after roasting release CO2! BAN COFFEE!!!!

    • What I liked about the movie was that no one was prepared for severe cooling; rather, they expected the predicted warming. And they suffered the consequences.

  20. I never cease to be amused by the accelerated timelines of these disaster movies. While there have been abrupt climate changes (decades or even years) over our ice age history, the typical time for glaciation (max to min temperature) is about 100,000 years. But here we see “Jack make a daring attempt to rescue his son and his friends who are stuck in New York.” Pure fiction, almost as fanciful and bizarre as the reality of today’s climate “science”.

    • Ice build-up on land seems to take longer than de-glaciation. Rain on snow and ice causes rapid melt — with river, lake, and sea level rise. I do not have a link but recall the timeline is not symmetrical. And neither are short. Useless for movies.
      But never mind: In the movie plot, in “Antartica” (sic) a huge ice sheet has sheared off and then there is a big wave in NYC. These are supposed to be connected! How?

    • Actually, Alan Ranger, not entirely absurd. Apparently some of the historical rapid-onset ice ages featured flash-frozen animals with tropical flora still in their stomachs. So it did happen–not often, but it has been known to occur.

      • Actuallly SF author Douglas Orgill wrote “The Sixth Winter” about variations in the Jet Stream bringing extremely cold blasts to earth and freezing mammoths. And this was written in the 1970’s, when a new Ice Age was a distinct possibility. And, in the movie, there’s a copy of “The Sixth Winter” on a bookcase!

      • Although I’ve forgotten the source, I’ve read that humans and animals froze to death right in place back, I think, in the 1800s, right here in the U.S.

  21. Well I suppose if it helps improve forecasting that is something. Because they have been hopeless at getting the natural world to play ball and deliver.

  22. “climate change, cause the polar jet stream to go wacky and freeze us extra good in winter” ?

    “Trust” Me, Americans are soooo “STUPID”, they’ll believe it !

    NEWS FLASH !

    Global Warming causes Ice Age, News at 11 !

    ?

    [ Worst President “ever”, elected “twice” (Twice means “2”) !

    “Worst” Economy Possible !!

    “Hellary” = “Obama” – “3” ?

    Yes, “Americans” are the “Dumbest” people in the [ History of the World ] !!!

    Fact-Not-Fiction…

    ?

  23. [From my favorite clip in The Day After Tomorrow] Can massive cyclonic systems “merge”? What happens when they get close to one another? What is one is going the other way? Can they merge if one slides over the top of another, like humping dogs?

    In the movie I spotted the same-latitude storms close to the pole on their screen and my first thought was, “WOW. Nature is elliptically compensating for Mercator map distortion!” I then wanted to see how they’d behave as they merged, but it was like one of those campy old movies where you see a guy kissing a girl and then the screen gets all wavy and blurry or a curtain or a leering stork slides across and then there is the couple pushing a baby carriage.

  24. The planet cools and they know. And so the excuses are invented. This happens when politics pretends it is science.

  25. What this is, is exactly this, cold extremes are blowing away warm extremes. While almost all “global warming” is in min temps all the cold is in max minus temps, snows and extremes.

    It’s the Climatology Constant of Hedging Bets CCoHB.

    We’re in a cooling phase that started sometime on the 00s 2009\10 seems to be the point where these colder extremes started to kick in.

    The danger obviously is not advancing glaciers, but say, imagine 12 foot of snowfall in 24 hours. Extreme yes but that is a very real danger, rather than creeping min temps.

    • It’s the “new norm” bollocks again, floods = new norm, drought = new norm. That’s why the IPCC have both bases covered for Australia, yep, contradicting findings that both are true it seems. CCoHB

    • The same mental quirk that makes (just a few though shrill, to be fair) devout Catholics obsess on the End Times and lift every rock looking underneath for Lambs and Seals and Beasts… positively titillated about End Times to an extraordinary degree… has infected the secular world as Climageddon. Ever wonder why in the US the evangelical demographic is more skeptical, which is counter-intuitive since alarmism tugs at the sin-strings of man? Their faith has already bound itself to that neural receptor.

      In secular-undecided-athiest-agnostics the receptor is wide open. Scanning electron microscopy reveals that End Times neural receptor sites have been occupied with tiny “Al Gores”, complete with greying hair and S.E.G. It’s an abomination I tell you.

  26. Fear not, people – the UK Met Office (stop sniggering at the back there) has got a Brand New £92m Computer (the last one only cost £60m, so was obviously no good) – which can predict weather TWELVE MONTHS AHEAD…..
    Wow – I hear you cry – and how do they do that..?
    By ‘hindcasting’ – you know, looking at what happened in years gone by…
    Well – you would think they would do that anyway, wouldn’t you..?
    So – what are you – a smart@ss..? These are the EXPERTS…..

  27. Was this movie theme authorized in the Podesta emails? Everything else is censored and screened there.

  28. Aren’t more extreme cold winters a definition of climate change? If we are having more extreme winters than before over many years than that is climate change, no? And it’s also the climate trending colder. But now we see that they are right whenever the weather trends away from the 30 year average, regardless of direction in temperature. And convenient that it can’t be modelled correctly and verified later it just is that way because CO2. These people get paid to tell us that the weather is changing because of man no matter how it changes. Great gig if you can get it.

  29. The spectacular light shows seen the last few years that are known as the aurora borealis give evidence that large influxes of positively charged ions have entered the earths atmosphere at the poles via the solar wind. Electromagnetic storms within the earths ionosphere can and do elongate the bends in the jet stream toward the equator. Since high and low atmospheric pressure systems track along the the boundaries of the jet stream this gives a explanation for the deep incursions of cold air from the arctic into the deep southern latitudes.

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