I’ve been getting a few worried queries on Facebook from people that want my opinion about the “Mega-storm packing 150 mph winds and 50-foot waves set to pummel West Coast” that has been making the rounds as seen below:
What is your take on this storm coming into the West coast areas of Washington, Oregon and California. 50 ft waves and 150 mph winds. worse that the 1962 storm?
When I saw that headline, I cringed, because the author from a website called Medium, one Kevin Thomas Hulten, says he is a FEMA-certified disaster PIO, an award-winning publisher/reporter & founder of the Bay Area-based strategic communication firm K15n. is using the image of Typhoon Songda at it’s strongest on October 11th, along with the effects of a typhoon at that strength “50 ft waves and 150 mph winds” in a headline that suggests these effects will hit the West Coast of the USA.
He’s not just wrong, he’s irresposnibly wrong in my opinion; if he really is trained by to be a “FEMA-certified disaster PIO”, he should know better. Unless of course, hype is part of that FEMA training. The data simply doesn’t support his wild claim. For example, here is the current bulletin up on the NWS Seattle home page:
A factual story in the Seattle Times was much less alarming:
“This is one of those rare cases where (a typhoon) just happened to get swept up in the right way and get in an environment where it could grow again right off our coast,” Bond said. “When everything comes together like that — look out.”
On Thursday, computer models showed the storm passing directly over Western Washington, said Kirby Cook, science officer for the National Weather Service in Seattle. But even small shifts in the storm track can change which areas will be hit hardest, he cautioned.
Pressure measurements show a very intense low at the heart of the storm, which means high winds. But the pressures aren’t quite as low as those that spawned the (1962) Columbus Day storm.
“This doesn’t look as strong as that, right now,” Cook said. “But it may very well end up being the strongest storm we’ve had in the last five to 10 years.”
Gosh, compare these two quotes:
“FEMA Certified Disaster PIO” Kevin Thomas Hulten says –
Packing 150 mph sustained winds, a storm some meteorologists are calling the “biggest storm in history” will hit coastal regions of the U.S. this Saturday,generating 45-foot waves, and dumping multiple feet of rainfall across an area including three states and two countries.
NWS science officer Kirby Cook says –
…the strongest storm we’ve had in the last five to 10 years.
The graphic provide by the Times is very instructive:
And here is a Tweet from a couple of days ago by the NWS Seattle, that shows what the storm looks like now as a strong extra-tropical low pressure system:
Satellite loop of past 3 days showing transition from ridge to stormy pattern in the Pacific NW. #wawx pic.twitter.com/z75XNFKf9i
— NWS Seattle (@NWSSeattle) October 14, 2016
Compare that image of the low approaching the coast to the typhoon picture used in the Medium story by Kevin Thomas Hulten and I think you’ll agree they look nothing alike.
Compare the measured wind speed of 52mph at sea by a ship off the coast of Seattle to “packing 150 mph winds”:
Low offshore still has considerable deepening to do, but vessel on back side of it had sustained wind of 52 mph near 38.6 N 138.1 W. #wawx pic.twitter.com/v1YaSTii9t
— NWS Seattle (@NWSSeattle) October 15, 2016
It seems though, some “journalists” just can’t help but generate clickbait.
Mashable’s Andrew Freedman fell into that trap yesterday, and I called him out on it:
Worse than we thought! There's DNA in Super Typhoons now, breeding at sea, apparently. pic.twitter.com/xIcYRHE6v0
— Watts Up With That (@wattsupwiththat) October 14, 2016
Here is the graphic from that Tweet, click to enlarge:
In my opinion, these doomster journalists do the world a great disservice when they print hype like that, because when the “super typhoon” and 150 mph winds and 50 foot waves don’t materialize in Seattle and nearby areas, people will remember that the warnings didn’t match reality, and the next time a big storm comes through, they might not take it seriously enough to prepare because the last one was such a bust.
It’s called “warning fatigue” (something NOAA recognizes) combined with fixation on something that is pointless entertainment. And, it isn’t just in the USA, Britain has it too.
My friend Mike Smith speaks of this problem in his book Warnings: The true story of how science tamed the weather.
I’ve read it, and I’ve lived and experienced much of what he’s written about in the quest to make forecasting, especially severe weather forecasting, more accurate, timely, and specific. For those of us that prefer practical approaches over the rampant speculation on mere wisps of connections to climate this book is for you.
Interestingly, while “warning fatigue” was well known long ago when too many weather bulletins occur and the populace tunes out because they weren’t personally affected, so it goes today with the increasingly shrill climate warnings we see in the media.
The public is starting to tune those out too.
As other commentators from Canada have stated our federal meteorological folks have been careful not to over or under warn about the storms. They give updates regularly on the web site with explanations about how the storm could brings gusts to 100KPH, but that there was a good chance that it would veer north or south of the Lower Mainland (Vancouver region) and as such folks should check in from time to time to see what is happening. We had one neighbour’s tree blow over yesterday and also trees pushed over on a few street and one unlucky person was killed by a falling tree so far. The worst is due later today though…and our next door neighbour has two dead trees that we don’t trust…
5:06 AM PDT Saturday 15 October 2016
Wind warning in effect for:
Metro Vancouver
Strong winds that may cause damage are expected.
The third in a series of strong storms will approach the coast this afternoon with winds rising late this afternoon and reaching warning level this evening. The storm which carries energy and moisture from the remnants of Typhoon Songda is forecast to cross southern Vancouver Island this evening and then move onto the sunshine coast tonight. Southerly winds gusting up to 100 km/h will ease by early Sunday morning.
For us Americans, 100 km/h is a mere 62.5 mph and would not break the speed limits outside of city centers.
” … 62.5 mph and would not break …”
62.5 mph will break trees and uproot others.
If you live with a tree that can hit your house — go to the mall and a movie. That’s not a joke.
I live south of Seattle, and have followed this evening’s wind arrival very closely. My daughter has a 0600 flight out of SeaTac on Sunday, and I am the appointed driver for a 0400 pick up. She is not fond of bad weather; white knuckle flyer in calm weather, but any wind, snow, lightning makes her anxious. Very anxious.
Thankfully, the wind event is now forecast for the Seattle/Tacoma metro area between 1800 and 2300 today. Best of all, the NWS has now dialed back the maximum gusts at SeaTac and in our suburban area by about 15 mph from what they had yesterday. But even with lower wind gusts, there still could be serious problems with trees because the area has been hammered with rain over the past two days, and the ground is saturated.
Forecasters out here are damned if they do, damned if they don’t. NWS Seattle has been very clear all week: lots of uncertainty on track/timing/strength, but get ready for a big hit. Had they forecast a minor event, and major winds arrived, the outrage expressed by the easily offended would go on for days.
An update from Cliff Mass:
http://www.cliffmass.blogspot.com/2016/10/todays-major-storm-difficult-forecast.html
Windsong….back in the day when I flew…a lot… more than just a few times I found myself seated next to female passengers traveling alone and served as their arm to clench on as the rough and tumble of bad weather buffeted the plane. Those ladies were invariably apologetic for clasping my arm for comfort and I would do my best to project the gallant reassuring stoic for them while thinking to myself ” if this baby goes down we’re both in the soup!”
Maybe asked already, but if a typhoon crosses the International Date Line, does it become a hurricane?
Yes. I do know that a hurricane crossing westward over the International Date LIne becomes a typhoon. Last year, Hurricane Kilo became Typhoon Kilo when it crossed westward over the International Date Line.
Thanks. I also notice that Indian Ocean tropical storms become cyclones even if they form north of the equator, as did Agni in 2004, notable for its record-setting proximity to the equator, at 0.7°N.
A severe tropical storm is called a cyclone if it is in the Indian Ocean on either side of the equator or if it is in the South Pacific.
T. from tufan, a word in Arabic, Persian, and Hindi
H. appears to be from an Arawakan (West Indies) word:
C. from the idea of a circle
Look them up here: http://www.etymonline.com/index.php
I suppose the WMO has a paper on this topic, and so gets to dictate the “proper” word usage.
My understanding is that typhoon originated from Chinese (presumably Cantonese) “tai fung” or “big wind”.
Don,
I knew that cyclone is the word used for such storms in the South Pacific and southern Indian Ocean, but wasn’t sure about the IO north of the equator. As noted by John, the Arabic, Persian and Hindi word appears to come from Chinese, so in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, they might have been called typhoons.
“Unless of course, hype is part of that FEMA training.”
Wouldn’t surprise me in the least.
Can some of you in those areas keep this thread going please, It will be interesting to see how this unwind(s). Thanks, Oh and the history of this guy is well “interesting” .
Thanks Anthony — well done.
As others above, I too live in Washington State but on the dry side of the Cascades.
As “Dry Side John” I work as a volunteer with Washington Trails Association building, maintaining, and clearing trees** off of hiking trails. Two things chase us out of the forests — lighting and strong winds.
We call storms such as this job security, see the second photo at this link:
http://blogs.usda.gov/tag/olympic-national-forest/
In the photo the saw is under the log, coming up — called under-bucking.
**[I do not take lightly the flooding, power outage, and deaths — good thoughts to all over there.]
Hi, John,
From the “wet side,” here’s a little ditty sung by old timers around here:
Well, I learned a little lesson from a logger named Gray.
You don’t cut timber on a windy day.
Stay out of the woods when the moisture’s loooooo–ooooohhhhhh,
Or you’ll never live to collect your dough.
Good for you to keep those hiking trails open for the rest of us — thanks!
Your neighbor,
Janice
I see my “litle ditty” education has been sadly neglected.
1444 hours PST – Just returned from the fore-mentioned football game (our guys were victorious, by a 60-0 score). The weather started out with scudding low level clouds, with steady winds from the south estimated around 10-25 mph, and light mist to medium rain, waxing and waning. The temperature was in the upper 40’s to lower 50’s (F), and where skin or clothing was wet it was a bit uncomfortable.
As the game progressed, the rain picked up through the first half. At half time, the rain was steady, although winds had abated to gusty, but no more than 10-15 mph (estimated). As the team came out for the second half – the rains stopped, and although the mid level clouds still were moving rapidly from south to north overhead, only intermittent rain bursts occurred. By the end of the game, the overcast had started to break, the winds had died back to a relatively calm afternoon. As I type, no rain and calm conditions with overcast skies.
The calm before the storm??
Reporting as promised and requested,7
MCR
Current conditions in PDX breezy, with winds around 17 mph, but forecast to pick up again tonight to around 24 mph.
At: 48.491914, -122.316922 (near Burlington, WA, USA) — Currently a stiff breeze (guessing 20 mph with gusts of 40 mph). Flags whipping, but not standing out straight. A few light sprinkles. Sky is brightening as if the sun might come out in an hour or so. Power — ON (yay!).
Re: Manzanita — it is right on the coast (damage inland is nothing to write home about). Also, fortunately, most of the damage was to unoccupied vacation/second homes (apparently). ALL damage is someone’s sorrow, though, so, sorry to hear of your town’s property damage, Lyndsi.
Looks like the worst of it was past the Columbia River bar by 3:00 pm PDT. Megler reported wind at 3:10 of 61G83 mph, and Naselle Ridge reported 56G86 at 2:50. (Those are exposed hilltops.) A sea level HADS location next to the Cape Disappointment USCG station reported 51G63 at 3:00. More recent readings show less wind.
The tone of the Alarmist warnings are becoming shriller and louder as the public is becoming attuned to them, and is beginning to ignore them more and more. How much more “Worse than we thought” and “Biggest in history” can the public take before they revolt.
what i notice is that they (the alarmists and CAGW hyping people seem to use the “generation gaps” and seem to “forget” former worse weather events.
same here we had an article saying the belgian heat wave of 2015 was in the top 10 of worse climatic disasters of 2015…
i just said out loud on the comment:” what would then the heatwave of 1976 or 1947 (still holding the record hottest temperature ever in Belgium) have been ranked?
i see the same tendency with storms and floods, but nowhere near with cold or snow events…..
Cliff Mass has an update:
http://cliffmass.blogspot.ca/2016/10/the-storm-reveals-itself.html
“Portland had the rainiest Oct. 13 in its history and the National Weather Service said a 103-mph wind gust was recorded at Cape Meares.”
Not exactly wimpy. Currently raining, pardon my French, “comme vache qui pisse”
Phase II fizzled out::
“National Weather Service meteorologist Miles Higa said the entire system should dissipate soon – including what’s left of it in Washington.
Peak gusts were lower than expected, Higa said. In Astoria, for example, the service expected to see peak gusts of 55 to 65 mph. The actual peak was 52 mph. In the Newport area, they expected gusts near 65 mph, but none registered past 41 mph.
“The winds on the coast underperformed,” he said.”
We got lucky. The low went farther offshore than predicted, by only about 50km, but that’s enough for a big change.
Forecasting the path of a mid latitude low is very difficult when the low is moving at 50km/hour and with the isobars so close together, that’s a difference of about 40km/hr winds. (60 actual versus 100 predicted (sustained) for example in Ocean Shores).
I’m thankful the models were slightly off in my favor. My property likely won’t need major repairs. (Oh, hello Mr Murphy, how are you?)
Peter
Peter would the fact the low is moving fast ( compared to hurricane Mathew FI moved at 10-15mph, 15 22 kms/hr) have something to do with maybe this storm not becoming as strong as predicted? It seems to me that the longer a “low” stays almost stationary it gets stronger.
Another “beautiful cyclone” captured by Himawari-8:
========
2016/10/13 – Extratropical Transition of former Typhoon Songda – Band 9 Water Vapor
2016/10/12 – Last day of Typhoon Songda before extratropical transition – Band 3 rapid scan visible
2016/10/11 – More Rapid Scan Band 3 visible imagery of Typhoon Songda
2016/10/10 – Typhoon Songda in the West Pacific – Band 3 Rapid Scan Visible
========
HTML5 loop / animated GIF / or MP4:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_of_the_day/
(cntrl+F on “beautiful”)
I’m on the Canadian side; east coast of Vancouver island, about 70 minutes north of Victoria.
At 6pm PT on Saturday, the winds are light to moderate. They’re supposed to pick up in the next 6 hours.
Not terribly worried, although the ground saturation from the rains (there has been considerably more rain than usual), IS a concern with respect to half a dozen 100++ foot Douglas Firs that are within about 30 feet of my house.
Not sure how often this updates, but the link below seems to provide a pretty good graphic for tracking the storm..
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-143.31,42.80,3000/loc=-126.026,46.813
Still probably a bad day to.toss the sea kayak in for a little fishing.
Storm turned north and stayed off-shore. Seattle only brushed. Few outages. Vancouver may get hit.
28 mph max at my house and 50mph max gust at the PDX airport. I’ve seen at least three storms bigger than that in the last fifteen years. The NWS here this afternoon said the reason the storm barely hit high wind criteria instead of what they predicted was that two smaller lows formed just northwest of the parent low sucking energy away from that low; something the models cannot predict because observational data in the eastern Pacific is too sparse.
If they can’t get the forecast right 24 hours ( even 12 ) in advance, how am I supposed to take seriously forecasts 100 years away?
Here in Roseburg, Oregon, it has been a rainy day. Wind might have hit 20 MPH in gusts. No trees down. No flooding. No lightning. Storm or the Century is total Bullshift. THESE are the assholes who are predicting climate 50 years from now????
Hmm..models.
“But it intensified far less than almost ALL of the computer forecast models and data – the best science – predicted it would.”
http://mynorthwest.com/424892/was-windstorm-2016-overblown-exaggerated/
We live atop a ridge in Ilwaco, WA with a view of the ocean. Saturday morning it was noted that the surf was normal for this time of year, i.e. there was nothing that signaled an impending storm. By 2:00 p.m. the wind was blowing with gusts in the 50s. Rain was heavy at times, but nothing abnormal. One should always be prepared for storms, they happen with regularity.
Every year at this time of year in the UK the ‘usual suspects’ are wheeled out by the MSM to make wide-eyed spittle-flecked warnings of ‘another dire winter to come’ – just in order to fill some column inches and get a few more clicks. It almost always fails to materialise and the people who sucked it in and prepared for ‘the big freeze’ are left feeling like idiots once again. They should be sacked for scaremongering.
Well, the storm of the century passed over us, leaving no winds to speak of and ~20mm of rain. The predicted, nay hyped 75mph winds simply did not arrive, not even a few puffs. I was actually kinda hoping we would get some strong gusts to clear the last of the leaves from the trees, but nope.
I watched live as the “eye” of the system hit Cape Flattery and as soon as it did, the back end of the storm spilled out harmlessly over the Pacific. None of the models predicted that, but once again the GFS was the closest to actual.
Try, 245 miles an hour winds? I lived through Hurricane Andrew, & Katrina.
Before:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HKGqiKLkLJ8
After:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=VMMf_Hi8Y6g