Scientists: World likely won’t avoid dangerous warming mark
by Seth Borenstein
(AP) A team of top scientists is telling world leaders to stop congratulating themselves on the Paris agreement to fight climate change because if more isn’t done, global temperatures will likely hit dangerous warming levels in about 35 years.
Six scientists who were leaders in past international climate conferences joined with the Universal Ecological Fund in Argentina to release a brief report Thursday, saying that if even more cuts in heat-trapping gases aren’t agreed upon soon, the world will warm by another 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius) by around 2050.
That 1.8 degree mark is key because in 2009 world leaders agreed that they wanted to avoid warming of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. Temperatures have already risen about 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit), so that 2 degree goal is really about preventing a rise of another degree going forward.
Examining the carbon pollution cuts and curbs promised by 190 nations in an agreement made in Paris last December, the scientists said it’s simply not enough.
“The pledges are not going to get even close,” said report lead author Sir Robert Watson, a University of East Anglia professor and former World Bank chief scientist who used to be chairman of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. “If you governments of the world are really serious, you’re going to have to do way, way more.”
If carbon pollution continues with just the emission cuts pledged in Paris, Earth will likely hit the danger mark by 2050, Watson and colleagues calculated, echoing what other researchers have found. They said with just a few more cuts, the danger level might be delayed by 20 years,
In Paris, the countries also added a secondary tougher goal of limiting warming to just another 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit (half a degree Celsius) as an aspiration.
There “is no hope of us stabilizing” at that temperature because the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere already commits the world to hitting that mark, Watson said.
Watson said a few weeks ago he was in Washington at an event with United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki Moon and former Vice President Al Gore celebrating the accord as a victory.
“It struck me that this was naive,” Watson said. “This is a real major challenge to stay even close to 2 degrees Celsius.”
That 2-degree danger mark is on a continuum with harmful effects already being felt now at lower warming levels, Watson said. But he added: “As you go more and more above 2, the negative effects become more and more pronounced, more and more severe.”
The report wasn’t published in a scientific journal. Six outside scientists looked at for The Associated Press and said the science behind it was sound and so were the conclusions.
“It is a good summary of what is common knowledge in the climate expert community but not widely appreciated by members of the public and even policy makers,” said Stefan Rahmstorf, head of Earth system analysis at the Potsdam Institute in Germany. “So indeed it is a useful reminder notice to the world about what is at stake.”
On Tuesday, scientists at Climate Interactive In Asheville, North Carolina, who weren’t part of the report ran a computer simulation using pledges from the Paris agreement and found that dangerous mark arrives around 2051, said group co-director Drew Jones.
From the report https://www.scribd.com/document/325824016/The-Truth-About-Climate-Change
“There are many signs that the climate is already changing. Yet some think that climate change is only going to happen by the end of the century. Because of this common misunderstanding, the urgency of climate change has been misunderstood by most … Climate change is happening now, and much faster than anticipated. The evidence is what most have been experiencing as unusual weather events, such as changes in average rain patterns leading to floods or droughts, more intense storms, heat waves and wildfires, among others daily examples. Some of these impacts of climate change already had devastating effects on livelihoods, infrastructure and lives.”
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Based on the predictions so far that means we should sort out fuel supply for the coldest weather ever. Of course weather has nothing to do with climate though.
“A team of top scientists is telling world leaders to stop congratulating themselves”
Good luck with that one.
A team of scientists is urging governments to go faster in doing things that governments and the people to whom they are accountable have absolutely no intention of doing. Already, many western governments are imposing huge economic costs on their countries to reduce GHGs even though there is no counterpart action in the developing countries where all, or virtually all, of the emissions growth is occurring. The alarmists keep calling for the faster diffusion of technologies that either have not even been proven yet or that are commercially in the infant stage. If, as these scientists say, it is already too late to avoid warming, then let us turn the climate change efforts to where they should have been all along – on adaptation, not mitigation, and on research and technology development, not premature dissemination. That, of course, would eliminate the billions in subsidies to the solar, wind, biomass and electric vehicle industries.
And the stupidity continues – Ministers approve EU ratification of Paris Agreement
http://ec.europa.eu/clima/news/articles/news_2016093001_en.htm
Here’s the press conference given by EU Climate Action and Energy Commissioner, Miguel Arias Cañete
http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-16-3263_en.htm
55nations Nations’ ever changing MPs voluntary members of UN Paris COP21 now ratified a binding document to STOP global temperature rising 1.5 degrees by 2030. Politics rather than dedicated science dictates such signing. The 55 signature obviously took no council from dedicated science. Africa, PRC, India, California, Australian, the poles deserts have risen up to 2.6 degrees. The lay media and public are not informed! It is surprising the EU would support a signature covering “the problem” that is adding to accelerated mass migration rather than address the solution.
Many of the signing nations also signed the binding UNFCCC COP3 science based Kyoto Protocol 1997. COP3 was a result of years of assembled science data with an actual plan, “how to lower mass CO2 back to reversing desert, by growing soil, soil-carbon”. COP21 virtually represents the worst example of politics over riding Nature’ well-proven science.
The sad fact is, UN-COP assembly of 193 voluntary members returning to their homelands, can do little to repair 500 years of anthropogenic environmental global damage.
Reparation must be based on hard-core Nature/Science historical protocol which COP3 was also “legally binding”. Well planned if 193Nations at COP22 pass a bill to “open UNFCCC” up to “lead in physical Earth soil-water-vegetation-atmosphere reparation” then by 2020-25 serious lowering of CO2e, desertification and poverty can be achieved. Here is the COP3 protocol applied across PRC desert Provinces and Mongolia. PRC will lower 8Bn tonnes CO2 pa by 2020 to UNFCCC 100year rule https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YbI8YZmBP8g . Well planned under UNFCCC 100year rule not only self-funding but will see the reverse of mass migration and poverty. The restored poverty desert nations’ return to trade with the now ailing the financially struggling “developed World! Waiting for 2030 to start is madness.
COP21 is actually a wish that COP1 had in mind and achieved COP3 and proved in the field according to Natures billions of years modelling. The fate of future generation is in the hands of COP22. Before entering the assembly take a drive out of town that is the World 2025 unless a proven COP3 science action plan is applied. The Historians of tomorrow have pens poised! Without Prejudice Robert Vincin
Well Bob, anyone who tells you the average temp in CA went up 2.5 C over the past 30 years is lying through their teeth, and if you think you’ll see a 1.5C rise in average global temperature (one not fabricated) in the next 14 years you’re a fool and I’ll take your money.
Bollox.
Well good. That’s over then. Roll up the tents and let’s get out of here.
There are two main reasons that attempts to control the temperature will fall far short. First, the Paris agreement is purely voluntary with no penalties for countries that fail to meet their targets. So there will be no great urgency to do so. Countries that fail can simply shrug their shoulders and promise to do better next time. In addition, there a provision in the treaty that allows developing nations to opt out entirely if reaching their goals interferes with economic growth and poverty alleviation. Second, since international polls consider fighting climate change a low-priority item, consumers won’t make enough serious lifestyle changes to do their part. So the UN should quit the charade and realize money designated to cutting emissions would be better spent adapting to rising temperatures.
Or getting ready for cooler temps.
“There are two main reasons that attempts to control the temperature will fall far short”
There is only one actually, we can’t no matter how hard we try.
Mankind can no more significantly alter the Global temperature (whatever that is…) than significantly alter the time the Sun rises and sets.
Watson said a few weeks ago he was in Washington at an event with United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki Moon and former Vice President Al Gore celebrating the accord as a victory.
“It struck me that this was naive,” Watson said. “This is a real major challenge to stay even close to 2 degrees Celsius.”
__________________________________
flying round the globe telling people to minimize their ecological footprint. oh well.
Every week there is a new universal eco socialist group claiming they are experts with oh so scary predictions based apparently on the climate model of the day. They never actually even include the dominant force of natural climate variables .
Can’t wait to see the next IPCC con job….. due when ? That’s right likely never . Their lead sex poodle is out of action so that bit of propaganda has run it’s course .
The “scientists ” have been used and now the green wash con men have moved onto intimidation and bully mode as their business plan has been pushed way off track . This signifies the end game of the scam .
Who cares if it warms, we should be thrilled . The notion that humans are some how going to regulate the temperature is a bald face lie . The scientific community knows it and so does anyone with common sense .
China , India and other “developing ” economies are not about to throw their citizens and economies under the bus while all those stupid socialist ideologues sell out theirs . The billions siphoned off by “renewable ” energy stock promoters is winding down though so the jig is up . Taxpayers were robbed with government support .