Scientists: World likely won’t avoid dangerous warming mark
by Seth Borenstein
(AP) A team of top scientists is telling world leaders to stop congratulating themselves on the Paris agreement to fight climate change because if more isn’t done, global temperatures will likely hit dangerous warming levels in about 35 years.
Six scientists who were leaders in past international climate conferences joined with the Universal Ecological Fund in Argentina to release a brief report Thursday, saying that if even more cuts in heat-trapping gases aren’t agreed upon soon, the world will warm by another 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius) by around 2050.
That 1.8 degree mark is key because in 2009 world leaders agreed that they wanted to avoid warming of 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels. Temperatures have already risen about 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit), so that 2 degree goal is really about preventing a rise of another degree going forward.
Examining the carbon pollution cuts and curbs promised by 190 nations in an agreement made in Paris last December, the scientists said it’s simply not enough.
“The pledges are not going to get even close,” said report lead author Sir Robert Watson, a University of East Anglia professor and former World Bank chief scientist who used to be chairman of the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. “If you governments of the world are really serious, you’re going to have to do way, way more.”
If carbon pollution continues with just the emission cuts pledged in Paris, Earth will likely hit the danger mark by 2050, Watson and colleagues calculated, echoing what other researchers have found. They said with just a few more cuts, the danger level might be delayed by 20 years,
In Paris, the countries also added a secondary tougher goal of limiting warming to just another 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit (half a degree Celsius) as an aspiration.
There “is no hope of us stabilizing” at that temperature because the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere already commits the world to hitting that mark, Watson said.
Watson said a few weeks ago he was in Washington at an event with United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki Moon and former Vice President Al Gore celebrating the accord as a victory.
“It struck me that this was naive,” Watson said. “This is a real major challenge to stay even close to 2 degrees Celsius.”
That 2-degree danger mark is on a continuum with harmful effects already being felt now at lower warming levels, Watson said. But he added: “As you go more and more above 2, the negative effects become more and more pronounced, more and more severe.”
The report wasn’t published in a scientific journal. Six outside scientists looked at for The Associated Press and said the science behind it was sound and so were the conclusions.
“It is a good summary of what is common knowledge in the climate expert community but not widely appreciated by members of the public and even policy makers,” said Stefan Rahmstorf, head of Earth system analysis at the Potsdam Institute in Germany. “So indeed it is a useful reminder notice to the world about what is at stake.”
On Tuesday, scientists at Climate Interactive In Asheville, North Carolina, who weren’t part of the report ran a computer simulation using pledges from the Paris agreement and found that dangerous mark arrives around 2051, said group co-director Drew Jones.
From the report https://www.scribd.com/document/325824016/The-Truth-About-Climate-Change
“There are many signs that the climate is already changing. Yet some think that climate change is only going to happen by the end of the century. Because of this common misunderstanding, the urgency of climate change has been misunderstood by most … Climate change is happening now, and much faster than anticipated. The evidence is what most have been experiencing as unusual weather events, such as changes in average rain patterns leading to floods or droughts, more intense storms, heat waves and wildfires, among others daily examples. Some of these impacts of climate change already had devastating effects on livelihoods, infrastructure and lives.”
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Yay warmer! I love warmth. I live at 45N in the middle of NOAM. I’d like another 2C if possible, you know…bring us back to how warm it was at the last optimum. Sounds great to me. Love it.
I find it comforting when alarmists state that the huge sacrifices that countries make in the AGW cause will still not enough to save the world. I say great, Lets do nothing use our resources to improve the lifestyles of the current generation and face the global warming consequences when it happens. Futility is a great demotivator in calling for even greater action on climate change. It is clear that with the Chinese agreeing to do nothing no matter what the rest of the world does it will have no impact.
Stop this charade now!
John Kerry has said exactly that. He said the developed nations could stop ALL emissions and it still would not be enough due to the emissions from the rising nations.
The most effective way to limit global warming is to use the correct Homogenization process. That alone should buy is about 50+ years.
Typical Doomster posturing. They go from exhuberant “Yeah us! We can do this!” to gloomy “We have to do much, much more, or we’re doomed!” It’s how they keep the troops motivated.
That is the “never enough” syndrome of Liberalism/Progressivism/Socialism.
Even if Progressives were to get everything they were asking for today, “it”* would of course fall short of what they said “it” would achieve.
They then blame they didn’t (get/ask fir/demand) enough, and would then demand even more.
* “it” could be anything, poverty reduction, housing the homeless, aid to shithole 3rd world countries run by despits, environmental preserves and land/ocean sequesteation, etc.
If Hillary gets elected, and Dems control the Senate again, those geniuses Whitehouse, Markey, and Boxer will usher in a new Dark Age. Pray.
Seth Borenstein’s climate porn may is allowed Al Gore and Ban Ki Moon “naïveté,” but he is restricted by his handlers from saying the identical thing about Obama or Hillary Clinton’s CO2 “naïveté.”
That truth demonstrates that what Borenstein practices is not journalism.
all climate accords will be useless unless one can show a relationship between warming and emissions
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2845972
I cringe every time I see a headline including the words, “Scientists Say…”. How about “Some scientists..” or “Six scientists…” . Besides, who decides a person, even with a PHD, is a “scientist”? How would the perception of this story change if the headline read, “Six people say…”?
The term “scientist” is supposed to convey the idea of reliability and integrity. If only that were still true.
Consider which entities control the land surface temperature data… of course it’s going to get warmer!
“There are many signs that the climate is already changing. Yet some think that climate change is only going to happen by the end of the century.”
What a straw man… as if the climate never changes.
They are talking ClimateSpeak, meaning their “climate change” is the mythical CO2-based one instead of actual climate. Bait-and-switch.
At long last scientists have wised up and stopped making predictions during their remaining careers to prove they don’t know squat, and are making estimates at 35+ years after they retire. Bravo. Of course, a prediction that far out is socially worthless. No one has an attention span that long in terms of public policy. So now, not only are the predictions scientifically garbage, but the social value is also worthless.
Kerry has concluded that if he gets rid of all our air conditioners and we go back to eating rotten food (no refrigerators), we will live longer. I am waiting to see when Obama turns off all the refrigerators in the White House and turns the air conditioning off. Ditto for HIllary. Oh okay, that is a policy for you and me, not those in power.
Chinese international politics–Make a pledge. Drag it out. Problems in translation. Wait for the next administration to repeat the pledge, else ignore it and move along. They know how to play the game.
Give GISS a few more years, and we’ll have 2 degree warming by 2015.
More a directive , than a memo.
Both the approximation of the net effect of all ocean cycles and the time-integral of sunspot number anomalies are in down trend. The only climate factor countering this is the rising water vapor. http://globalclimatedrivers2.blogspot.com presents a 98% match 1895-2015 of calculated vs measured.
What a quandary. How to scare the crap out of people about an upcoming disaster when the validation is near. Here’s a thought, move it out say 35 years and hope no one will remember.
Well I guess they’d better put the message out for all greenie-alarmists to GET OUT OF THE WAY of fracking and nuclear energy. Pronto. Their objects must be overruled. After all our very survival and that of the world is at stake, so we must act now. [Not really sarc at all.]
Oh, and where can I buy pitchforks? Also what other garden utensils can be used to shake in the air outside the castle gates if all the pitchforks have sold out?
Oops – typo – “Their objects…” should, of course, read “Their objections…”
I had an attack of the fast-fingers.
“lead author Sir Robert Watson, a University of East Anglia professor and former World Bank chief scientist”
– Follow the money….. The world bank is bilking the wealthy nations out of $100 billion/yr so they can use our money to bribe 3rd world dictators.
Earlier today –
EU ministers are expected to ratify the agreement, along with India and Canada, next week meaning enough countries will have signed up for the deal to come into legal force
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/sep/30/eu-gives-green-light-to-activate-paris-climate-deal
Trying to make the gravy train law !!
It’s time for King Canute to return to us and give them another seaside demonstration of their futility.
“… if even more cuts in heat-trapping gases aren’t agreed upon soon, the world will warm by another 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius) by around 2050 …”.
========================================
The only certainty is that the atmospheric concentration of CO2 will continue on its ‘business-as-usual’ path and by 2050 the concentration will reach about 575 ppm which is about double the concentration in 1880.
If the GAT reaches another 1C above the current it will be ~1.8C above 1880 which, assuming all else remaining equal, would confirm the empirical estimates of climate sensitivity — hooray.
The evidence is what most have been experiencing as unusual weather events, such as changes in average rain patterns leading to floods or droughts, more intense storms, heat waves and wildfires, among others daily examples.
And yet, in Australia we have a station that kept records in the same style record book for I think 132 years. The book had a space for a one paragraph summary at the end of the year.
The most common entry was “This has been a most unusual year.”
If true, 132 years ago, that record was written by someone not familiar with the Australian climate.
“There are many signs that the climate is already changing. Yet SOME think that climate change is only going to happen by the end of the century. Because of this COMMON misunderstanding, the urgency of climate change has been misunderstood by MOST … Climate change is happening now, and much faster than anticipated. The evidence is what MOST have been experiencing as unusual weather events, such as changes in average rain patterns leading to floods or droughts, more intense storms, heat waves and wildfires, among others daily examples. Some of these impacts of climate change already had devastating effects on livelihoods, infrastructure and lives.”
If only ”Some” think C.C is a distant issue how come it’s a ”common” misunderstanding and ”Most” of us are getting it all wrong? All very vague and meaningless. More sneaky words to give the impression that they have actually said something. They go on to make the claim that they know what ”Most” are experiencing. Who are these ”some” and ”most” where do they hang out? It seems that ”some” people are prone to developing fantasies, and imaginary beings to accommodate their narrative. Not difficult to understand their affection for CAGW.
Eamon.
Since it is Friday perhaps a little fun.
Think of the “Warmists” or “True Believers” as an interbreeding population.
The population will grow if its members can breed to create new True Believers.
If the members are prevented from successful breeding, i.e. no new True Believers created, then the population stagnates, and as members die the population slowly dwindles to one and then when the last member is dead, the population is extinct. In this scenario the population of True Believers is “The Walking Dead”.
There are many ways to die, other than by waiting for it.
It is critical to keep the members of the population of True Believers from interbreeding.
Jumping ahead a little, it may be that John Cook, is the last True Believer, and if prevented from interbreeding to create a new True Believer, the population will be extinct upon his death.
Old True Believers like Al Gore and so many others will die and die and die and be forgotten.
Therefore, it is critical to keep John Cook from interbreeding and potentially creating another True Believer.
I.e. we need to keep John Cook in the category of “The Walking Dead”.
50-years from now, people who are curious might read about the events of what happened, them wonder to themselves, what was all the bickering about.
Good Friday. 🙂
The climate change we have been experiencing is caused by the sun and the oceans over which Mankind has no control. There is no real evidence that CO2 has any effect on climate. The Paris agreement does not change reality. If CO2 really affected climate them one would expect that the increase in CO2 over the past 30 years would have caused an increase in the natural lapse rate in the troposphere but that has not happened. The convective greenhouse effect accounts for all 33 degrees C that the Earth’s surface is warmer because of the atmosphere. There is no additional radiant greenhouse effect, “No radiant greenhouse effect”, kills the AGW conjecture.
Willhaas
You are overlooking the warming caused by the removal of at least 30 Megatonnes of SO2 aerosols from the atmosphere due to Clean Air efforts. Cleaner air=stronger rays of sunshine striking the earth’s surface = global warming.
This scenario is completely provable.
Imagine that it was considered bad to emit less sulfates (a trend which has also produced cleaner cities). And yet one volcanically dyspeptic year can wipe out all such gains. We have to put it in perspective.
Daniel Levy::
Yes, cleaner air is beneficial to cities, but it comes with the side effect of higher surface temperatures.
Annual emissions of anthropogenic sulfur dioxide aerosols are currently around 90 Megatonnes.. Any reduction in the amount of these emissions will cause average global temperatures to rise at the rate of .02 deg. of warming for each net Megatonne of reduction in global SO2 emissions.
A large volcanic eruption would cause some temporary cooling until its aerosols settled out of the atmosphere. It would not wipe away any “gains”.
It appears that your understanding of the effect of SO2 aerosols is faulty.
The only sure way to cool the climate is to reduce the amount of sun energy that reaches the atmosphere.
This will be necessary in the long term future anyway, as the sun continues it’s evolution/aging/expansion. So, why not start now? More CO2 means more plant growth and more life in general. So, we need to keep CO2 between .04 and .10 % anyway. We just need less energy from the sun. eg. Solar panels in orbit that block sunlight and collect electricity? Selective blocking over arctic areas may reduce ice melt as well.
I am sure there will be no humans on this rock to worry about what the Sun will do to all the inner planets while it goes through it’s death throes is some ~5 billion years.
“Solar panels in orbit that block sunlight and collect electricity?”
If you then beam the energy down to Earth and use it, it will eventually end up as heat…
As already occurs with terrestrial solar panels too, of course…