I almost called this yesterday, but I needed more data to be sure. All of the data I’ve looked at agrees, Arctic sea ice is now on the upswing, and in a big way.
Here is the plot from NSIDC:
This graph from Wipneus shows the abruptness of the change:
And the physics of ice is also a dead giveaway. Here, the Arctic temperature shows a dramatic upswing.
This is why: when water freezes it releases its specific latent heat.
The specific latent heat is the amount of energy required to convert 1 kg (or 1 lb) of a substance from solid to liquid (or vice-versa) without a change in the temperature of the surroundings — all absorbed energy goes into the phase change — is known as the specific latent heat of fusion.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latent_heat#Specific_latent_heat
For water, that’s about 334 KiloJoules of energy per kilogram.
Added: Note that in the record low year 2012, the date of the turning point was September 16th, this year was just a little bit earlier, but didn’t come close to a record, nor did it come close to predictions made for an ice free Arctic or less than 1 million square kilometers.
The value this year looks to be about 4.139 million square kilometers according to NSIDC data on September 11th of 2016.
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Anthony,
This might be a good time to mention (in the name of balance) that the cruise ship Crystal Serenity made it through the Northwest Passage safely with its 1100 massively over-charged passengers. Many were predicting a disaster akin to the one experienced by Chris Turney and his gang of idiots in 2013. From looking at the shipboard camera pictures, it looked like the ice breaker escort had little to do this time.
Of course, the pictures also showed that the Crystal Serenity trip must have been one of the most boring in the history of cruising. I can’t imagine too many people are going to pay $20,000 per person next time, just to look out their windows at…….nothing.
Some of them seemed to have a good time, at least after recovering from Norovirus. http://nwpassage2016.blogspot.com/
The ship is in Boston now.
That sounds more like Cliff Clavin than the bartender, unless he was Woody Boyd.
Bear in mind that RCMP officer Henry Larsen made the trip by a more northerly route in a schooner in 1944.
Arctic ice is cyclic.
But the landscape is still just as boring.
Also Canadian icebreaker Labrador in 1954, which went on to circumnavigate North America:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CCGS_Labrador
It is -but the additional effects of warming have taken it well below the last cycle of 1920s – 1940s -and it is still declining.
I can find only one transit before this century which did not involve multi year passage or full icebreaker support.
A passage completely open and ice free for any size of vessel is a qualitative difference between the pre-2000 state.
Being a bird (and whale) watcher myself, and having gone on a few Arctic and Antarctic tours, I have often wonder what the #!& do non bird-watchers actually do on ocean cruises.
What does anyone do on a cruise? (I think bird/whale watching would be the only reason to go!) all I can say is, the ship was full of spas, restaurants and entertainment was provided!
“This is why: when water freezes it releases its specific latent heat.”
wouldn’t that be built into the concept of average arctic temperature?
I picked a record melt this year but did forget that the 2012 melt was, in large part, an artifact of the 15% measuring rule which was also fudged to make that year’s melt look bigger than it was. With the Sun cooling, I reckon that summer melts will return to 1990’s levels. That’s my long term prediction, in case you don’t see me around.
The 15% measuring rule that I know of is NSIDC’s report being “sea ice extent”, which is area of sea that is 15-plus percent ice-covered. That has been their rule since well before 2012 and it is the same now. Another place often cited in WUWT is arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu, which counts area of the ice itself. They also have 2012 being the year with the record low for Arctic sea ice. Sadly, unlike NSIDC, they did not switch over to another existing satellite sensor when the one they were using failed around the beginning of April 2016. Such a switchover requires intercalibration work, and NSIDC did that in just a few weeks.
Pretty big blob of cold air there the last week and thru this week. Next week, warming enough so that there could be a bit of melting(or less freezing) but not enough to make a new low that late in the year.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/mslp_nh_alltimes.html
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/images/ens/t850anom_nh_alltimes.html
Forecasting Arctic ice is not my area of expertise, so take that with a grain of salt.
I (sort of) called this on Saturday
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/09/09/nsidc-two-very-strong-storms-failed-to-make-a-repeat-of-2012-record-low-arctic-sea-ice-extent/#comment-2297045
Regarding the 3rd graph and the explanation for the temperature uptick: I saw lack of mention of what the graph is of more specifically than Arctic temperature, or where it came from. I think I found it at http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
and this is a plot from DMI of a determination of daily mean temperature north of 80 degrees north.
As for release of latent heat of fusion due to freezing water into ice explaining the temperature uptick: That does not sound quite right to me; release of latent heat of fusion typically slows a temperature drop. The uptick could be from something else: The NSIDC plot is not of ice area, but the area of sea that is at least 15% covered by ice (which they call sea ice extent). They have said before in their Arctic Sea Ice News and Analysis page (https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/) that changes of wind can make the ice pack either spread out or be compacted. I suspect a wind change caused the ice pack to be more spread out, and that exposed more water within the icepack and the exposed water releases heat into the atmosphere more than ice does. This abrupt an uptick (or for that matter a downtick) in Arctic sea ice extent is usually caused by a wind change. If such a wind change is the explanation and it reverses, then the Arctic sea ice extent can shrink – although I think probably not to a new low for the year.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Latent_heat#Specific_latent_heat
Anthony, please don’t use WP as a reference. That article was full of errors and seems to have been written by a high school student.
It does not make much sense to criticise WP as being totally useless, inaccurate and biased on climate issues and then still use it as a reference.
We know that Google always returns WP at the top, but it would not be hard to find a reliable academic link provide a definition.
Yes, we hit minimum – second lowest extent, second lowest area…
In a year with less than ‘ideal’ melting conditions, which has seen the loss of much the oldest and thickest multi year ice… ice was very dispersed and broken up, with large areas of open water near the pole
The NW passage was open again… as was the northern sea route in the end…
This is an assessment of this year’s melt which sums it up:
http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2013/04/28/fox_news_global_warming_versus_climate_change.html
Someone who thinks that the term “climate change” was invented by a Republican spin-doctor or even by some scientist in 1975 is incredibly ignorant.
I took down Ladurie’s classic “Times of feast times of famine. A history of climate since the year 1000” written in 1967 and started leafing through it. The term first turned up on page 7!
climate change as an alternate for global warming was manufactured and publicised by a Republican…
which is why it is so funny when skeptics rage about the name change…
Griff are you paid by the character, word or post for your silliness?
Not paid at all – this is just something I’m interested in.
The arctic sea ice clearly shows the impact of global warming… I am concerned to see the situation accurately reported, based on the scientific evidence.
I have connection with any green (or leftist) group, renewable energy firm, etc.
oops! no editor…
I think you can spot where I intended there to be a ‘no’
unless you think its a Freudian slip 🙂
Griff,
You really ought not to regurgitate the lies that you read on SkS uncritically. Its own graph of relative usage of the two terms shows that “climate change” took off under Clinton, c. 1994. He hosted a “climate change” conference in 1997, if not before.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/climate-change-v-global-warming-terms.JPG
SkS looks ridiculous, as usual and to be expected from a cartoonist who likes to dress up as a N@zi, by asserting right below this graph that Frank Luntz was responsible for popularizing the term in a 2003 memo to Bush.
Griff,
Is that a Clinton thing you just did there with the comment:
“I think you can spot where I intended there to be a ‘no’
unless you think its a Freudian slip :-)”
You didn’t actually answer, but appeared to answer.
The point remains that despite all the predictions of an ice free arctic, it is STILL not Ice free. I would also dispute your claim of the loss of much of the oldest and thickest ice.
According to Wadhams et al, we should be ice free now – http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/NEWIMAGES/arctic.seaice.color.000.png
If that’s ice free – I’d hate to think what it would look like normally!
That UIUC map of ice cover is far from accurate. They have been only updating the date on the map and not its depiction of ice coverage since a failure of the satellite they were using around the beginning of last April.
“The arctic sea ice clearly shows the impact of global warming…”
Why does the Antarctic sea ice show no such impact? Because this is all natural variation. Did you know there is satellite data all through the 70’s which is never shown, because 1979 was the maximum?
How did you do in Statistics 101, or Design of Experiments 457? Not so well I am guessing…
is this griff person for real????? the claim the oldest ice broke up and is one now is patently FALSE….the multi year ice is EXPANDING as i type this because areas that had no ice this time last year do have ice now that froze last year, so each day more of that ice reaches its birthday and becomes multi year ice…….the core of the ice is THICKER now than last year and the core is much larger.
Here you can see where the new ice is:
http://www.aari.ru/odata/_d0015.php?lang=1&mod=0&yy=2016
This by the way is probably the most reliable source for arctic sea-ice, though as it is for the use of shipping in the Arctic it is not updated during the winter.
Whilst it’s nice to finally be appreciated after all these years, it would also be nice if Anthony provided proper attribution for the graph from “Wipneus” displayed above.
Can somebody sort that out please?
[the graphic itself is self-referencing and has this in it along with the name https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/ that same link has been added to the name in the text for those incapable of noticing it. /mod]
Thank you.
In my experience most people can’t even be bothered to click a link, let alone type in a long URL that’s almost illegible.
One thing that is not being considered by commentators on this site is how relatively small the thaw was in the Arctic this summer given the exceptionally low ice extent at the start of the melting season.
Did the crystal serenity cruise ship make it through from anchorage to NYC? It is due to arrive in two days but there is nothing on the net about current progress.
It made it through the NW passage, is the important bit… should be able to finish last stretch – unless you are expecting an iceberg or U boats off NY?
See also:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-37351271
This year’s thaw was greater than average. The difference between record low and average is less at the start of the melt season than at the end, so an above-average thaw from a record low high point does not necessarily lead to a record low low point.
This years extent was second lowest in a 37 year record… and second lowest area too.
Doesn’t matter where you measure the start from – more melted out this year than in 35 out of last 37 years…
With absolutely no repercussions…
You’re right, but if it will stop the early winter in the northern hemisphere?
ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02186/plots/4km/r11_Central_Arctic_ts_4km.png
The past 37 years have been like the low ice interval c. 1909 to 1946. The decline in the satellite record is because it started in 1979, at or near the Arctic sea ice high for the past century, after the postwar chill of the late ’40s to ’70s. Which three-decade-plus cold cycle I should note occurred under monotonously rising CO2.
“With absolutely no repercussions…”
Yep ….. and none were expected.
Gabro wrote, “The decline in the satellite record is because it started in 1979, at or near the Arctic sea ice high for the past century…”
You might be right. It is clear that at least one-half to one-third of the reported decline is because of that.
The climate campaigners, these days, like to start with the 1979 Nimbus 7 data, but it wasn’t always so. The first two IPCC Assessment Reports graphed sea ice extent data starting in 1973, with Nimbus 5 data. Those graphs were not included in later Assessment Reports, but here’s what the First Assessment Report (FAR) showed (I added the red circles):
http://www.sealevel.info/ipcc_far_pp224-225_sea_ice2_1979circled.png
The units are millions of sq-km, but they used an ice concentration threshold of 10%, rather than 15%, which makes the numbers a bit larger. That 1979 peak appears to represent a growth of somewhere between 0.5 and 1.0 million sq-km over five years.
For comparison, since the 1980s it appears that Arctic ice extent maximums have declined about 1 million sq-km, and minimums by about twice that:
http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.area.arctic.png
(Note: ignore the last few months in that graph. It is broken, due to the failures of the DMSP F17 & F19 satellites.)
However, if Arctic sea-ice extent increased throughout the 1950s-1979s, as seems likely, then it is quite possible that the post-1979 decrease in Arctic ice extent is entirely due to the convenient 1979 starting point.
I imagine that if you asked why the IPCC no longer uses sea ice data from prior to 1979 you’d be told that the Nimbus 7 multichannel instrument was superior to the earlier instrument aboard Nimbus 5. That is true, but, as you can see in the FAR graph, above, it is also true that the 1979 starting point is very convenient to the alarmist narrative of steadily declining Arctic ice.
[snip you might want to fix your accusation before trying to post here
…our polite request for that to be corrected remains invisible over at Watts Up With That.
No. It’s been dealt with, and in full view, even though the graph was self-referenced and included a URL.
This is why Anthony has us watch out for you, you don’t play fair. /mod]
Dave,
Thanks for the charts.
There is also sketchy satellite observations from the 1960s. Whether that imagery can distinguish surface melt water from open seawater, I don’t know.
It is entirely possible that 1979 was the high for the past century, given waning Arctic sea ice extent in the 1910s to ’40s and then a build up during the ’50s to ’70s.
@ur momisugly Griff, Your statement:
Doesn’t matter where you measure the start from – more melted out this year than in 35 out of last 37 years… is total BS.
The average melt from NSIDC 9.87 X 10^6 Km2 per year, 3 sigma is 1.64, so anything from 8.23 to 11.51 is ‘normal’. This year was 9.52, just BELOW average.
Dear mod,
I said “thanks” and modified my article more swiftly than you released my original comment from purgatory.
Can’t you come up with a better excuse that that?
[yes, you are mostly a persona-non-grata here, pushing your own website while taking pot-shots there. if you throw rocks at our house, we may not bother to throw rocks back, but we can certainly decide not to let you inside to throw them. occasionally some of your comments have merit, and those get let through. mostly your comments are pot-shots. /mod]
Dear mod,
I don’t “take pot shots”, I provide facts & figures. At the risk of repeating myself:
http://nsidc.org/sites/nsidc.org/files/images//mean_anomaly_1953-2012.png
I noticed the article URL, and was reminded that you can tune a piano, and you can tune a guitar, but you can’t tune a fish, and you can’t tune a corner. 😉
http://www.sealevel.info/you_cant_tune_a_fish_50pct.jpg
Look at
https://moyhu.blogspot.de/p/latest-ice-and-temperature-data.html
On the bottom there is a daily plot of JAXA Arctic, NSIDC NH/SH. You may select each to display.
What does Anthony mean with this Arctic sea ice melt has turned the corner ?
No idea.
But the situation at the Antarctic indeed is a bit strange. Some heat wave in the air last week?