Indianapolis ABC television affiliate WRTV wanted its viewers to see the complaints it received after preempting Bachelor in Paradise last night for report on a series of tornadoes that touched down nearby, so it posted some on its website.
Bachelor in Paradise is where some of the rejected Bachelor/Bachelorette suitors go to drink, mingle and canoodle their way to another shot at love on national television. Source: TVSpy.
But wait, there’s more…
Maybe these folks didn’t know they could watch it online later, here. In today’s digital age, there’s no reason to think TV is a linear timeline anymore. They would rather risk getting mowed down by a tornado because they are unaware instead of waiting I suppose.
This is another clear cut case of “warning fatigue” (something NOAA recognizes) combined with fixation on something that is pointless entertainment. And, it isn’t just in the USA, Britain has it too.
My friend Mike Smith speaks of this problem in his book Warnings: The true story of how science tamed the weather.
I’ve read it, and I’ve lived and experienced much of what he’s written about in the quest to make forecasting, especially severe weather forecasting, more accurate, timely, and specific. For those of us that prefer practical approaches over the rampant speculation on mere wisps of connections to climate this book is for you.
I recall once early in my career that I had to go on live and interrupt 60 Minutes to deliver a tornado warning. I got a few calls as well.
Interestingly, while “warning fatigue” was well known long ago when too many weather bulletins occur and the populace tunes out because they weren’t personally affected, so it goes today with the increasingly shrill climate warnings we see in the media.
The public is starting to tune those out too.
If you have have ever lived through a tornado and more than one as I have, these warnings are invaluable.
Have also watched anvil clouds form over Lake Erie and then watched for which direction they are moving.
Mankind has survived for a very long time on this planet without weather forecasts and we can survive in the future without weather forecasters. Forecasters are the modern day shamen or witchdoctors if we don’t listen to them we will surely die, not science even though it is prediction.
Short term weather forecasting is reliable. Long term forecasting is not.
Tornado warnings are reliable because doppler radar makes it possible to see tornadoes forming.
If my mental arithmetic is correct, tornado warnings are saving about 600 lives per year in the USofA.
My question is to that statistic you quoted. A change from 1.8 to 0.11 is quite astounding, however the question also is – what group of people does this reflect? If the entire US population then one has to see if the number of people living in Tornado Alley has increased as the same rate as those who do not. If the percentage is the same then good, weather forecasting appears to work with respect to tornado deaths. If the percentage of people at risk since 1925 has changed then that needs to be expressed. The Wikipedia article where you got this from misquoted the original text substantially and cherry picked the years. Using archive.org to go back to the original source (a private person’s tornado education page) the closest info to what Wikipedia used is this:
The United States experiences an average of 80 deaths and 1,500 injuries that are caused by tornadoes, each year. The deadliest tornado in American history, however, was actually invisible. In 1925, the “Tri-State” tornado launched a 220-mile long and mile- wide path of destruction that resulted in 60 – 70 MPH tornado winds (twice the speed of an average tornado) in the states of Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. In total, 2,000 people were injured, along with $16 million worth of property losses, and 700 fatalities. This tragedy also holds the known record for most tornado fatalities in a single city or town: 234 deaths accounted for the small town of Murphysboro, Illinois.
So, 1925 had 700 deaths where the average number of deaths per year is only 80 (according to https://web.archive.org/web/20130720011531/http://mattcuttsalerts.com/tornado-warnings/) roughly nine times more in 1925 – so cherry picking may be what happened here to generate that 1.8 to 0.11 statistic. If they went to 1926 and compared it with 2010 what would show up? If the average number of fatalities is declining steadily year after year then that would indicate a change that may be attributable to weather forecasting.
What I am saying is you must ALWAYS check the source. I do not doubt that good weather forecasting saves lives and property and is invaluable, however reporting bad statistics helps no one.
Good catch! Sure looks like a cherry pick to me.
TV viewers should be given the ability to block all emergency and weather alerts. It would improve the gene pool immensely. /sarc
I am so old that I can remember when you could get useful information about the weather in the US. Many years ago public TV aired NOAA weather report for aviators. With a 5th grade Indiana education, you could figure out what your local weather would be.
You are really lucky if you live some place where the AMS certified television meteorologist at least one local station is not a complete moron. For example, we spend part of the winter and spring in Shreveport, LA. The CBS moron will preempt an entire NCIS to show how smart he is by talking over the head of the audience with ‘state of the art’ models.
In Shreveport, I watch a different station for weather warnings. They get the job done in a short time unless it is the ‘annual’ record flood. With the internet and HD weather channels 24/7, the information is only as good as the technician who post the information. The weekend guy is not very good.
I grew up in Indiana. We had drill for tornadoes. We had basements. During one tornado warning, I was working in the basement of the mechanical engineering building. I thought I could not be in a safer place. Thirty miles away the massive stone county courthouse just disappeared. I went up to look at the damage. You still read the occupancy limit signs post in the civil defense shelter.
The basic problem with warnings is what are you going to do after being warned.
We live near S’port, La. Completely agree with the assessment of the CBS affiliate. Yes, we are probably watching the same group that gives a good summary and explanation of what is going on.
I think that WTHR channel 13 has the most advanced Doppler in the Indianapolis area right now. There is a noticeable difference.
Bachelor in Paradise is easily the best reality show I’ve seen this year. The producers have ditched the corn, and rounded up the liveliest freaks from the last few seasons of the Bachelor/Bachelorette. We get to watch the freaks at play.
There’s nothing shameful about watching reality TV. I’m out and proud, and I only wish I had come out earlier. During the first season of Big Brother I pretended to have only a vague interest, but eventually I realised I couldn’t contain it, and I started talking about it with work colleagues. If any reality buffs on this blog feel they need to hide it, all I can say is: don’t! There are more of us than you realise. The first step is to admit it to yourself – don’t pretend that you just caught a glimpse of Cops because the TV was on while you were washing the dishes. Once you’re at peace with yourself, you’ll be surprised how accepting other people will be. With a bit of luck, your family will even buy you a TV just for your own use.
lmao
Does it occur to anyone that the tweets are intended to be humorous? You know, sarcasm? Don’t be so literal, folks. If they know how to tweet, it’s likely they know how to see TV episodes online. Enjoy the humor.
It did to me, too. Kids have a great sense of humor, in contrast to some of the comments here.
In any case they’ve got our genes and live in the world we built for them, so blame yourselves if you don’t like what you see 😉
Does it occur to anyone that the tweets are intended to be humorous? You know, sarcasm? Don’t be so literal, folks. If they know how to tweet, it’s likely they know how to see TV episodes online.
Thanks for pointing to the book, Warnings. Bought it as ebook and am through 3 terrific chapters already. Highly recommend it to all here.
My father started out in the Army Air Force as a B-17/ Gooney Bird C-45 pilot, then helped develop weather radar at the Seagirt Inn in 1944-45 (double e) . Switched to being a command pilot flying converted instrumented B-29s off Guam for early Pacific typhoon tracking research in 1947, after graduating with a masters in meteorology and a masters in physics from UCLA in 1946, both courtesy USAF. In 1950 he safely landed on Guam a 409th Typhoon Chaser B-29 so violently shaken as he flew though dispensing dropsondes from the bombay that the tail was bent 17 degrees out of true. Scrapped for parts. So he probably knew the early Air Force Weather Service researchy guys in the book’s early chapters from 1948-1953.
Sorry for the duplicate. Chrome isn’t very good at handling WordPress logins.
Sorry AW, but the 2016 Darwin Award already has a shoo-in winner.
The Tesla autodriver who drove his Model S on autopilot mode and did nothing to stop the car from going under the Semi-trailer at 60 MPH. Lost his head he did, literally.
Avoiding tornado warnings on the telly doesn’t even come close to that lethal stupidity.
Since Anthony Watts feels it is okay to demean people in Indiana, let me be the first to nominate Anthony Watts for the Darwin Award.
First Anthony Watts put PV panels on his roof. What kind of moron does that? There are two kinds of power plants, those that have had a fire and those that have not had a fire yet. I call PV systems smoke emitting diodes. I am trained in firefighting, first aid, and CPR. Good skills to bring home but I would never put PV on my roof.
Second Anthony Watts lives in California. The morons in California have a propensity to think they are less of a moron that folks elsewhere that they belittle. I went to school in Indiana and spent summers with my dad starting in 1960. The assumption was that I was a hick. I lived in a larger more cosmopolitan city when back east.
To be sure, California has a mild climate and beautiful oceans and mountains. Indiana is one of those place where they say if you do not like the weather, wait 15 minutes. Winters are brutal and summers are hot and humid.
Finally, Anthony Watts is TV weather predictor. 100% of people in front of camera are morons. They do not know it because think everyone else is. My son works behind the scenes in TV newsroom. When he move to a major market, they were still moron. Prettier morons but still morons.
I am willing to consider the possibility that Anthony Watts has enough life skills not to win the Darwin Award. That is as long as he stays in California.
Retract that! I have driven in California. I would rather see a tornado coming across a cornfield than California plates in the rear view mirror.
Still having bad dreams about R. Rapier KP?
Retired, maybe a new, more appropriate screen name for you is “Asshole Kit P”?
…just sayin’….it would fit.
@joel
That’s correct and why some love me and some don’t.
Of course pointing that makes Joel one too, a very shallow one. Joel do you have anything to add to indicate your are not also a moron?
…Ran out of Prune Juice, didn’t you !! oO
I didn’t get the impression Anthony was belittling Hoosiers (I grew up in Indiana and had a large slice of my teaching career there), except for the immature ones we always had, both there and everywhere else I have lived.
Well John, AW was not suggesting they should be nominated for a Nobel Prize in Physics.
“First Anthony Watts put PV panels on his roof. What kind of moron does that?”
Someone like me who gets a tax clawback subsidy and a generous FIT rate to boot (Down Under in South Australia). While I know that’s really reshiftable power bills, I don’t make up the dumb rules of the game, just hop in for my chop lest I’m stuck subsidising my neighbours. Why do you ask? Aren’t you aware of the rules of the game these moronic watermelons make up?
@observa
While I like your honesty, doing something stupid because there is a tax break is still stupid.
I have a sailboat. I wrote some of the expenses off my taxes. When I sail I am at risk of drowning. I like sailing.
If you have PV on your roof because it is a hobby you enjoy, that is great. You are not a moron tricked by some politician.
I imagine the three or more other local news affiliates could cover the weather emergency just as well.
Used to be that a tv station would air a missed program after the news.
and cut into Johnny Carson????? no way!
No, no, they would have the entire late night shows on as well – usually it was the CBS affiliate that did this. 🙂
Alarm fatigue alert…alarm fatigue alert!
http://www.msn.com/en-au/news/australia/eerie-time-lapse-footage-shows-exactly-how-australias-coral-self-destructs/ar-BBvFpLj?li=AA4Znz&ocid=spartandhp
ooooh booga booga, we’re all doomed to be bleached or turned into white folk or some such
There seems to be some confusion about the Darwin Awards. They are not for people who do incredibly stupid things, or things someone doesn’t like. They are for people who DIE doing incredibly stupid things so that their genes are removed from the gene pool.
One famous Darwin Award winner was an elephant attendant. The elephant had massive constipation. The attendant fed the elephant lots of laxatives. When they appeared not to be working, he stood behind the elephant and gave it an enema. He died, suffocated, under some 150 pounds of freshly excreted elephant excrement.
or stealing copper from energized lines.
Dying isn’t necessary, removing yourself from the gene pool is the only qualification.
There was a nominee of someone returning from an overnight frog hunting expedition whose car fuses blew. Having no replacement, he found that a cartridge fitted exactly, allowing him to continue his journey!
Sure enough, after a short while the cartridge warmed sufficiently to go off – pointing under the dash and blowing the drivers nuts off. Prime candidate, but not sure he won?
SteveT
Rather reminds me of the book by Ray Bradbury “Fahrenheit 451” in which most of the people had been so brainwashed into watching mindless TV shows that they didn’t notice or care that their country was at war.
In the defense of the rest of the nation, this WAS from Indiana.
Scaring someone from Indiana takes a lot of work and usually a Rendition to someplace whar piple tawk diffurnt.
There are times when it is necessary to remove all the safety devices , and let natural selection sort it out.
This seems to be one of those times.
Warning Fatigue is a legitimate concern. I do maintenance for a small university and the LAHJ requires us to run a monthly test of 2 pull stations in each building and a test of the entire system every six months. In addition the student affairs office has to run a “surprise” drill (since the RAs are told when it will occur, the entire student body knows in short order) once a semester. Then there are false alarms caused by students cooking in their rooms, which happen a few times every semester.
The result of all this is that the students (and the faculty) have been trained out of any kind of immediate reaction to the sound of the alarms. If we had an actual structure fire on campus, I am concerned that the majority of residents would not react until they saw smoke and felt heat–which is often too late to get everybody out of the building.
I am concerned that the majority of residents would not react until they saw smoke and felt heat–which is often too late to get everybody out of the building.
THIS! SO MUCH THIS!
I was on the fire team at Motorola. You’d be freaking amazed at how many times an alarm went off–fire or chemical and you’d find people still in the area working after the evac was called. And we’re talking stuff that if you smell you die. The simple reason? “Oh I didn’t see/smell anything so figured it was safe, no reason to get undressed” (we wore bunny suits….clean rooms..etc).
I was once in a movie theater where the fire alarm went off–it took a good 15 seconds for the guy to shut off the movie and everyone in the theater groaned. There was a real freaking fire too and people were pissed off they had to leave. I stood up and shouted, FIRE EVERYONE OUT NOW! And you know there were still people wandering around looking for the smoke.
That was in the 90’s.
I had to Google “Bachelor in Paradise” to find out what all the fuss is about. I found out it is a TV series on ABC. That explains why I haven’t seen it. I haven’t watched network TV since I first got Internet access.
I have to admit that the TV stations get a little self consumed by all the fancy graphics, radars and special effects they invest in in their weather news rooms. Missing a little primetime TV is minor compared to knowing I should be headed to my shelter though. One thing that makes it tough is that probably about 10 to 15 percent of the Indianapolis viewing area was all that could have reasonably been considered to be in danger that evening so the rest had to suffer. I, for one am willing to accept that. BTW wthr13 has the cutest weather forecaster.
Just remember – THESE PEOPLE ARE ALSO VOTERS!
On a different topic, this behavior is more symptomatic of a bigger problem than warning fatigue – namely, poor ability of the public in general to estimate the proper levels of risk with various events. A classic case in point would be fear of flying in a commercial airline as opposed to, say, the trip to the airport in a car. Another example would be fear of cancer causing foods while at the same time eating a diet likely to induce adult-onset diabetes.
Warning fatigue is simply a subset of inaccurately assessed risk. On the flip side, climate alarmism would also be an example of improperly assessed risk, which is exacerbated by the current dominant (environmental) religion.
Let me say more bad things TV news including weather. If it bleeds it leads.
Looking at the statistics for death, I was a little surprised (I should not have been) by what is not important. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_causes_of_death_by_rate
In the US, you are more likely to die of malaria than lung cancer. My father was a heavy smoker and contracted malaria in WWII. He died of a much rarer form of cancer. I called him Lucky, since he survived Pearl Harbor, two plane crashes and many near crashes (before I was born), a house fire (the day I was born), pulling teenage boys from a car fire, revived in the ER after a hit and run while parked in front of my brother’s school, and revived in the ER after being electrocuted at work.
When you look at ‘unintentional injuries’, it is 6.23%. The is the opportunity for ‘warnings’ to save lives. For example, smoke detectors are very cheap compared to hospital treatment. That annoying noise your car makes when you are not wearing your seat belt.
The opportunity to save lives by tornado per 100,000 is zero when you round off the risk. It should be noted that a big tornado has a self warning mechanism, it sounds like a freight train.
I have been in a tornado. The sky was dark and the next thing I could not see the hood ornament on beater Lincoln. I was able to stop and was really glad I was not in the little car for the car pool. The best I can tell it formed on top of me. A few minutes later, there was a warning on the radio of the citing of a tornado. Everyone at work a few miles away had to shelter until the warning was over.
The safest place to be in a tornado is at a nuke plant. We have building designed for such events. Most people do not.
Pull the nearest manhole cover and climb down a few steps, watch out for rising waters/raccoons/gators and hope the debris field doesn’t end up sealing you in.
Canoodling?