Remember back in September 2012 Professor Peter Wadhams famously said that Arctic sea ice would disappear within four years? He also had another prediction in 2013, saying that due to the “methane emergency”, Arctic Sea ice would disappear within 2 years. Even Gavin Schmidt thought that was bollocks. Of course, he [Wadhams] was wrong. Now, his four year prediction from 2012 is being tested this year, and while sea ice has in fact melted faster than usual in May (partly due to El Niño boosted global temperatures), it is still a long way from disappearing right now [and] is within 2 standard deviations of normal for this time of year:
Don Keiller writes:
Professor Wadhams has past form with his Arctic sea ice extent predictions. Only last year he predicted that sea ice would vanish
He’s up to his old tricks again, so i called him out and bet him £1000 his prediction for this year was wrong;
—–Original Message—–
From: P. Wadhams
Sent: Friday, July 22, 2016 11:42 AM
To: Don & Selina
Subject: Re: Arctic ice free by September
Dear Mr Keiller, Thanks but I don’t gamble. Nor do I make many of the definitive predictions attributed to me by newspapers, who, as the Brexit campaigns demonstrate, have little interest in truth and much in sensation. The area trend is certainly on the way down, and before long the area will drop below 1 million sq km, but not definitely this year,
Yours sincerely,
Peter Wadhams
On Jul 21 2016, Don & Selina wrote:
> Dear Professor Wadhams, I read this article with interest and a degree of
> scepticism.
>
> http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/arctic-could-become-ice-free-for-first-time-in-more-than-100000-years-claims-leading-scientist-a7065781.html
>
> Are you prepared to put money on “an (ice) area of less than one million
> square kilometres for September of this year’?
>
> I am.
>
> I challenge you to a Public bet of £1000 that Arctic sea ice will remain
> above 1 million square kilometres at any point up to the end of
> September.
>
> Should be a sure thing for you, after all you are Professor of Ocean
> Physics and Head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group at Cambridge
> University.
>
>And who am I? Dr Don Keiller, MA, PhD, Cantab.
>
> I have also posted this email at “Tallbloke’s Talkshop”;
> https://tallbloke.wordpress.com/2016/07/20/hottest-june-not-according-to-the-satellites-roger/#comments
>
>Best regards,
>
>Don Keiller
Personally, I think Professor Wadhams has issues with determining reality versus fantasy. After all, he thinks big oil assassins are out to get him.
Note: about 15 minutes after publication, this post was updated to clarify Wadhams vs Schmidt in the first paragraph, fixed a typo, and some missing punctuation was also added in the same paragraph.
“This collapse, I predicted would occur in 2015-16 at which time the summer Arctic (August to September) would become ice-free. The final collapse towards that state is now happening and will probably be complete by those dates”.
Public pronouncement. But in discussions, he says “only” a million square kilometers remaining. In climate science:
1,000,000 = 0
Why should he bet? He’s a climate scientist, which means he gets to make outrageous claims for cash and is never held to account for said claims. None of the luke-warmers (you know who you are) find this particularly disturbing because you wish you were on the same gravy train. Modern “Science” has more to do with snake oil than a quest for knowledge.
It is always curious when a specific charge, you said “sea ice would be gone, and then defined gone as less then 1 million kilometers as.”
With a non specific defense of, “not everything said about me is true.”
In the mean time US SOS, John Kerry is saying air conditioners are more dangerous then Islamic terror due to global warming.
Another warmist, arguing from Kerry’s own level, (which is about one inch above 6 feet below) told the SOS, “but if warming is the problem we can just run all the A.C. units and open all the doors.” Kerry was last seen, still considering this, thoughtfully stroking his long chin.
That is because, as a result of the Montreal Protocol we now use HFCs as a refrigerant instead of CFCs. Problem is, HFCs have “thousands of times” greater warming effect than CO2. Oops. But have no fear, because they are even now trying to get rid of HFCs. I don’t know what they’ll be replaced with, but, rest assured, it will make cooling costs go up – skyrocket even.
Progress.
Wacky Wadhams doesn’t predict; he prognosticates. The end is always just nigh. It’s coming, just wait and see.
That is the mark of a snake-oil salesman. He’s selling something, and it most certainly isn’t science.
..Even IF all the Arctic sea ice were to melt..what would be the problem ?
He will not make the bet because he also made several other predictions. If it doesn’t happens this year, also next year seem to be a possibility. As is 2020. And even way beyond that:
https://trustyetverify.wordpress.com/2016/06/10/an-ice-free-arctic-predict-early-predict-often/
actually the more the graph is progressing, the more it looks like a “normal melt season for a lowest maximum ever that was below the -2 standard deviation.
unless a big storm over the arctic breaking up the ice and tossing it around like in 2007 i don’t see a record september minimum happening. Maybe somewhere between 2007 and 2012 but even then the melt rate is now too slow.
Peter’s response seems correct and well measured.
Perhaps you should go back to writing about plants at your polytechnic? Oh- looks like you failed at that too.
Brian Smith,
Wadhams said this (verbatim) in June of this year:
“My prediction remains that the Arctic ice may well disappear, that is, have an area of less than one million square kilometres for September of this year. It is very likely that this will be a record low year. I’m convinced it will be less than 3.4 million square kilometres [the current record low]. I think there’s a reasonable chance it could get down to a million this year and if it doesn’t do it this year, it will do it next year”
Read that again: “… it WILL do it next year”. That is a prediction, sir. Ice free in September of 2017. Measured and well stated. But he won’t put his money where his mouth is.
yep, could have told you that two years ago .the only person i have found willing to have bet on any arctic sea ice metrics is jim hunt . even then he chose ct area ,the bet runs to 2022 and is also for £1000 .
Professor Wadhams seems to believe that he has been misrepresented in the press.
“Nor do I make many of the definitive predictions attributed to me by newspapers, who, as the Brexit campaigns demonstrate, have little interest in truth and much in sensation”.
So I suggested he should ask “The (avidly Warmist ) Independent” to publish a correction:
Dear Professor Wadhams.
Many thanks for your prompt reply.
I assume that since you do not wish to take up my bet, you will be contacting “The Independent” who have “little interest in truth and much in sensation” to make the required correction to the statement on Arctic sea ice extent they attributed to you?
Regards and best,
Dr Don Keiller.
Needless to say, no reply.
Have any of the posters here actually looked at the arctic sea ice recently?
If extent is not below 2012 in a poor melting season, it is only because the ice has been broken up and spread out – area is looking challenged…
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/
http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2016/07/asi-2016-update-4-breaking-point.html#more
which concludes:
“All it takes, is relatively thin ice after a mild winter and early melt onset (similar to what we saw this year), followed by clear skies and high temperatures during May and June to get that melting momentum going. Then a bit of high-pressure-low-pressure ping-pong during July, followed by a big cyclone during August, et voilà: ice-free conditions. The question is not if, but when all these conditions will line up.”
Sadly the ice free arctic summer ocean is only a few years away – then the skeptic side is going to says what??
Griff: “Sadly the ice free arctic summer ocean is only a few years away”
Of course it isn’t.
Stop making stuff up.
As someone who hates gambling, I find the whole business of criticizing someone who refuses to gamble, entirely distasteful. I think it’s a shame that Anthony allows articles like this on his site. If there is valid criticism to be made of the man, then it should be able to stand on its own, without cheap shots like that.
As “someone who hates gambling” you should know the difference between real gambling and a gentleman’s challenge to put up or shut up. (And perhaps you should come clean and describe yourself as someone who has had a gambling problem along the way?)
It would have been once thing for Wadhams to say “Wagering is against my principles, but I stand by my prediction nevertheless, and will stand rebuked if it does not come to pass.”
But, no, he played the victim by claiming he had never made any such definitive prediction, and was being
misquoted by those trying to discredit him. Which is a bald-faced lie, and as proof his verbatim words have been quoted here by Your ‘Umble Narrator and others. Unless you feel quotes published in The Guardian and elsewhere are falsified.
Philip Schaeffer,
As “someone who hates gambling” you should know the difference between real gambling and a gentleman’s challenge to put up or shut up. (And perhaps you should come clean and describe yourself as someone who has had a gambling problem along the way?)
It would have been once thing for Wadhams to say “Wagering is against my principles, but I stand by my prediction nevertheless, and will stand rebuked if it does not come to pass.”
But, no, he played the victim by claiming he had never made any such definitive prediction, and was being misquoted by those trying to discredit him. Which is a bald-faced lie, and as proof his verbatim words have been quoted here by Your ‘Umble Narrator and others. Unless you feel quotes published in The Guardian and elsewhere are falsified.
Sorry for the duplicate post (even if it is a gem!), more WUWT site quirky browser behavior, which appears to discard a post, only to see it magically reappear later.
firstly: “(And perhaps you should come clean and describe yourself as someone who has had a gambling problem along the way?”
That’s a load of rubbish. Never wanted to gamble, never had a problem with gambling. My grandparents however had problems.
secondly: “As “someone who hates gambling” you should know the difference between real gambling and a gentleman’s challenge to put up or shut up.”
You’re just dressing up school yard rubbish by attaching the word gentleman to it. If the criticism of the man is valid, then there is no need to invoke gambling. If he can be hung with his own words, then do that, and leave gambling out of it.
Fair enough, I don’t entirely disagree with your position. But you came on a bit strong with the distasteful label. Such a visceral reaction to a common enough sort of challenge struck me as odd. My main point (I’m sure you’ll concede) was not that he declined to wager, but that he played the victim and claimed never to have made the prediction that the Arctic would be “ice free” no later than September 2017.
so how come the skeptic side never gets called on the repeated fails when they call a sea ice recovery?
this documents a notable fail on a recovery prediction…
http://planetsave.com/2016/07/25/climate-change-deniers-vs-climate-scientists-whos-right-arctic-sea-ice/
I love the advertisement on that page for “Green Jobs and Green Careers”. And that’s what it’s all about, ain’t it? Rent seeking.
If Joe Bastardi was wrong in 2010, he was wrong. I have no idea whether he conceded the point later. But he wasn’t dealing in the currency of “catastrophic” or “unprecedented” conditions, he was predicting the wanderings of a fluctuating graph, and as such probably knew he was rolling the dice. He wasn’t advocating dismantling the world economy to “save the planet”. In essence, by misreading where the data would be a few years ahead, he made his point. Neither he or anyone else can predict the future of a chaotic system about which, let’s face facts, much more is unknown than known, even by as luminous an intellect as Bill Nye’s.
I don’t know who is Professor Wadhams and I don’t care.
But I see that sea ice is decreasing.
Yes, it always does in summertime. But not decreasing as much this summer as in past summers, so no new “record” this September below 3.4M km/sq, and no “ice free”, i.e. below 1M km/sq. (Sorry, Dr Wadhams.)
Oh, you meant decreasing over decades? Yes, we are still emerging from the depths of the current Ice Age we are in, so gradually decreasing sea ice is perfectly natural and not unexpected.
Dont forget to tell me as soon as we have stopped emerging from ice age…
And meanwile go learn about the more recent Holocene climate optimum, that was warmer than the last millenium ….
You’re so funny.
What’s funny is thinking that A) we really know what’s coming next, and exactly why (e.g. because CO2!) and B) that anything we could possibly do (even quickly revert to a pre-industrial existence) would have more than a fraction of a deg C effect in this century. Even the IPCC in their infinite wisdom acknowledge we can’t really change whatever trajectory we are on much, if at all.
“But, but … we have to do SOMETHING!”
No, we don’t.