Guest essay by Eric Worrall
A new study claims “the window has closed” for preventing 1.5c of warming, and we’re going to have to work hard to prevent 2c of warming. Naturally in true climate tradition there is no evidence anything bad has or will happen.
Scientists: Window for avoiding 1.5C global warming ‘closed’
World is almost certain to breach danger threshold for millions of vulnerable people, study finds.
Scientists have bad news for people on the front line of climate change impacts.
The 1.5C global warming limit vulnerable countries fought hard to include in the Paris Agreement may already be out of reach.
There is slim chance of stabilising temperature rise at that level without controversial negative emissions technology, according to a study published in Nature.
“The window for limiting warming to below 1.5C with high probability and without temporarily exceeding that level already seems to have closed,” the report found.
It is a blow for those living near the coast of Bangladesh or low-lying islands like Kiribati, which is preparing for an exodus as rising seas swallow homes.
Coral reefs dying and tropical heatwaves are also expected to kick in at moderate levels of global warming, affecting millions of people worldwide.
The abstract of the referenced study;
Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C
The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to “pursue efforts” to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. Here we assess the effect of current INDCs on reducing aggregate greenhouse gas emissions, its implications for achieving the temperature objective of the Paris climate agreement, and potential options for overachievement. The INDCs collectively lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to where current policies stand, but still imply a median warming of 2.6–3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100. More can be achieved, because the agreement stipulates that targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are strengthened over time, both in ambition and scope. Substantial enhancement or over-delivery on current INDCs by additional national, sub-national and non-state actions is required to maintain a reasonable chance of meeting the target of keeping warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.
Read more (paywalled): http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v534/n7609/full/nature18307.html
So how badly is Kiribati suffering the ravages of climate? The answer is not a lot. Prompted by radical green orthodoxy, the New Zealand Government has been offering Kiribati residents a green card style lottery for 75 new residence permits every year, but as of last year New Zealand can’t find enough Kiribati people who want to leave, to fill the lottery.
… there hasn’t been a dramatic exodus just yet. The New Zealand immigration department sets aside 75 places a year in a lottery for migrants from Kiribati, and at the moment it can’t fill them.
President Anote Tong [Kiribati] suggests that is because things aren’t desperate enough yet.
Read more: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/11/07/and-you-thought-the-kiribati-climate-refugee-story-was-over/
The one degree or so of warming we have experienced has not made a noticeable difference to people’s lives, other than a slightly longer growing season, and less severe winters. Even if another 0.5C – 1C warming occurs, which is far from certain, there is no reason to think that the kind of temperature change you experience moving a few hundred feet up or down a hillside will make a major difference to people’s lives.
The world already reached the 2 C tipping point 1,300 years ago (Kobashi reconstruction) The Arabs were too busy expanding their empire they forgot it was the tipping point. The alarmists are just 1,300 years late in declaring tipping point. They should dig up the graves of the Arab conquerors to remind them it was the tipping point
Greenland isn’t exactly ‘the world’ but you can spin some of Andy Mays words any way you want.
Lou Maytrees July 1, 2016 at 11:24 pm
Reading comprehension can be so hard … especially if you have an ideology and are only capable of parroting mindless talking points you picked up somewhere. So much easier than thinking and debating. AND it makes you just feel so terribly clever, to boot.
Kobashi et al was from one specific lattitude/longitude in Greenland, no where else. So, not even close to ‘the world’. And even May in his article states that Kobashi was 3* higher than and exactly opposite of what Alley shows, which the author May, can’t even quite figure out why (interpret). So your response seems to be simple hand waving to make yourself feel clever or better or something?
Lou Maytrees July 1, 2016 at 11:57 pm
Who the heck cares? It was 1300 years ago. Pretending we know precisely what the temperature was 1300 years ago is a study in self-delusion. I read the Dr Strangelove post as tongue-in-cheek. Pity you have to take yourself so seriously that you felt the need to attack him. Like I said, reading comprehension can be so hard, especially if …
FYI, nobody said Greenland is exactly ‘the world’ … just another of your lame straw men. It is, however, part of the world. Many studies have been conducted in Greenland (ice cores, unavailable in most places in the world) in an effort to determine past climate changes. It’s certainly no worse than alarmists clanging their alarm bells and screeching SEE, GLOBAL WARMING! when NY had an unusually warm Christmas last year. Or the same alarms being sounded when the east coast and the midwest had two unusually cold winters which, apparently, was also caused by GLOBAL WARMING! At least, according to your so-called experts!
teapartygeezer, DrStrangelove did say ‘the world reached a tipping point’ and specifically cited Kobashi for his conclusion. So you would be wrong, someone did say that. And you’re the person who mentioned ‘reading skills’ yes? So not a ‘strawman argument’ at all.
Check Kobashi reconstruction. GISP2 delta T 1900-1993 tracks global delta T. We’re just looking for 2 C above 1750s temperature. Kobashi AD 700s is like 5 C above 1750s. More than what we’re looking for. There’s plenty of studies and evidences that MWP was global. Lou you’re not updated, do some reading
http://www.climatedepot.com/2013/03/08/more-than-700-scientists-from-400-institutions-in-40-countries-have-contributed-peerreviewed-papers-providing-evidence-that-the-medieval-warm-period-was-real-global-warmer-than-the-present/
Dr Strangelove, there is no dispute about the MWP happening, the problem is, and even Andy May acknowledges the +3*C difference he can’t interpret, that you cited Kobashi which has the MWP 3 degrees higher than other studies from the same general area (Greenland). Kobashi shows a huge spike where other studies show none. So your claim that Kobashi shows the whole planet 3*C+ warmer, even tho it was only a samll area in Greenland, is not shown in other studies at all.
Kobashi reconstruction is less sensitive to warming than HadCRUT4 (global). In Kobashi 1980s is just 0.1 C warmer than 1900s. In HadCRUT4 it’s 0.5 C. So when Kobashi 700s is 5 C warmer than 1750s, globally it would at least 2 C. I maintain the world had already reached tipping point 1,300 years ago. It’s no joke. But it’s funny that alarmists think this is all new and catastrophic.
BTW it’s also silly alarmists find it hard to believe the world was 2 C warmer in 700s than 1750s. We’re already 1.5 C warmer since 1750. That’s 1.5 C warming in over 250 years. What’s 2 C cooling in over 1,000 years? It’s a breeze
Replace good with food in above. Apple spelling correction at work.