Guest essay by Eric Worrall
A new study claims “the window has closed” for preventing 1.5c of warming, and we’re going to have to work hard to prevent 2c of warming. Naturally in true climate tradition there is no evidence anything bad has or will happen.
Scientists: Window for avoiding 1.5C global warming ‘closed’
World is almost certain to breach danger threshold for millions of vulnerable people, study finds.
Scientists have bad news for people on the front line of climate change impacts.
The 1.5C global warming limit vulnerable countries fought hard to include in the Paris Agreement may already be out of reach.
There is slim chance of stabilising temperature rise at that level without controversial negative emissions technology, according to a study published in Nature.
“The window for limiting warming to below 1.5C with high probability and without temporarily exceeding that level already seems to have closed,” the report found.
It is a blow for those living near the coast of Bangladesh or low-lying islands like Kiribati, which is preparing for an exodus as rising seas swallow homes.
Coral reefs dying and tropical heatwaves are also expected to kick in at moderate levels of global warming, affecting millions of people worldwide.
The abstract of the referenced study;
Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C
The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to “pursue efforts” to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. Here we assess the effect of current INDCs on reducing aggregate greenhouse gas emissions, its implications for achieving the temperature objective of the Paris climate agreement, and potential options for overachievement. The INDCs collectively lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to where current policies stand, but still imply a median warming of 2.6–3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100. More can be achieved, because the agreement stipulates that targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are strengthened over time, both in ambition and scope. Substantial enhancement or over-delivery on current INDCs by additional national, sub-national and non-state actions is required to maintain a reasonable chance of meeting the target of keeping warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.
Read more (paywalled): http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v534/n7609/full/nature18307.html
So how badly is Kiribati suffering the ravages of climate? The answer is not a lot. Prompted by radical green orthodoxy, the New Zealand Government has been offering Kiribati residents a green card style lottery for 75 new residence permits every year, but as of last year New Zealand can’t find enough Kiribati people who want to leave, to fill the lottery.
… there hasn’t been a dramatic exodus just yet. The New Zealand immigration department sets aside 75 places a year in a lottery for migrants from Kiribati, and at the moment it can’t fill them.
President Anote Tong [Kiribati] suggests that is because things aren’t desperate enough yet.
Read more: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/11/07/and-you-thought-the-kiribati-climate-refugee-story-was-over/
The one degree or so of warming we have experienced has not made a noticeable difference to people’s lives, other than a slightly longer growing season, and less severe winters. Even if another 0.5C – 1C warming occurs, which is far from certain, there is no reason to think that the kind of temperature change you experience moving a few hundred feet up or down a hillside will make a major difference to people’s lives.
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First warmunists insisted world governmts waste $76 TRILLION (UN estimate) on CO2 sequestration policies to avoid 2C of CO2 induced warming by 2100…
Now these same warmunists moved the goal posts to 1.5C, which, I’m sure, will later be moved again to 1C, which the empirical evidence and physics show ECS will be if world governments don’t waste dime on CO2 sequestration…
The world has gone quite literally insane…
Maybe in a few decades all the hardcore warmunists will have died off and their equivalents will start blabbing on about how if the temperature drops another 1.5C, GAIA WILL PERISH. The new algores will start buying land that is underwater to prepare for lower sea levels while telling everyone else that the global population should spend all their money to halt the increasing glaciers and polar ice, because WE MUST DO SOMETHING.
Then if the temps do not fall quickly enough, they will start moving goal posts again. Amazingly, the apparent “perfect” temperature will suddenly be that of 2000. And if anyone reminds the leftists that they used to claim the opposite, that person will be labeled a racist-sexist-homophobic-transphobic-bigoted-evil hater. Who probably kicks puppies.
To be fair, they’re not suggesting a “tipping point”. That ruse has already been tried, and failed miserably. This gambit is different, and actually more clever, so kudos to them for that. They are suggesting a sort of sliding scale Alarmism. According to them, we’ve already “cooked in” a disaster-level rise of 1.5C, dooming millions. So, shame on us. Now it’s up to us – you know, the ones they’re trying to shame, how much more disaster we will allow. For good measure, they run the old “don’t force us to burn biofuels and bury the resulting CO2” gambit up the flagpole, to see if we’ll salute it.
We’ve got their “salute” right here.
Sorry, I draw the line at kudos for AGW disciples who torture the truth for political ends.
Are we as warm as the Medieval Warm yet? Let alone the Roman or Minoan Warm? The temperature proxies are vague enough no decisive answer can be made, but I think this is mostly natural cycles (solar or otherwise), unrelated to the probably circa 1degree C rise if CO2 doubles.
Tom Halla
Took the words right out of my mouth. Then, an interesting question came to me. If present day warming has begun to drive CO2 increases, shouldn’t similar increases be present in Roman and Medieval Warm Period proxies? Anyone?
AIUI a community of Vikings lived on the coast of Greenland for about a hundred years during the medieval period. They lived by fishing and subsistence agriculture. They all died when the climate turned cold enough that they could not raise enough food.
It’s is not possible to raise crops in Greenland nowadays.
Celebrate, celebrate, dance to the tipping point:
I just want to celebrate, another day of tipping points:
This study release sounds like “bitter clingers”, technocrats and Fabians angry over the Brexit vote, and trying to lash out at people who want less world governance, and more national (local) control.
As a real scientist (analytical chemist with degrees in math, chemistry, and chemical physics) it continues to bother me to see the good name of Science dragged through the mud by these pre-Fascist propagandist hacks.
I prefer the wording ‘proto-Fascist’, but, yeah – that.
With both UAH (now .34) and RSS now dropping like a rock, these folks are going to be so disappointed as the planet cools.
Game over.
Soooo over.
Over a long time ago……..
*********************************************
As Bruce Cobb aptly pointed out, only a Climate Cult member could be fooled by this nonsense. A very old and worn out ploy:
Cult Leader: “Messiah will return after 150,000 join the cult…”
Dupe: “Uh…….. Leader……. we’ve got around 152,000 in our cult, now…. (nervous cough)….. and, uh……. I don’t see Him…….. or hear Him or…. anything……..”
*!*
CL: “Messiah will return after …… after we have …. 200,000 in our cult! …. Now, get out there and SPREAD the word!” (pulls out phone… touch… touch…. touch-touch….. (muttering)… “Hmm…. looks like those contributions will be okay…. if those damned parishioners would just get the lead out and sell!!!!”)
From GWPF today
2) Germany Starts Roll-Back Of Climate Policy
Reuters, 29 June 2016
BERLIN — Germany has abandoned plans to set out a timetable to exit coal-fired power production and scrapped C02 emissions reduction goals for individual sectors, according to the latest draft of an environment ministry document seen by Reuters on Wednesday.
An earlier version of the draft document that was leaked in May had suggested that Germany should phase out coal-fired power production “well before 2050” as part of a package of measures to help Berlin achieve its climate goals.
The new version, which was revised following consultation with the economy and energy ministry, has also deleted specific concrete C02 emissions savings targets for the energy, industry, transport and agriculture sectors.
The document forms the government’s national climate action plan for 2050 and lays out how it plans to move away from fossil fuels and achieve its goal of cutting CO2 emissions by up to 95 percent compared to 1990 levels by the middle of the century.
The original proposals met with hefty opposition from unions, coal-producing regions and business groups who said it would cost jobs and damage industry.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/germany-waters-down-climate-protection-plan-135413515–sector.html
They’re going to get rid of all that nasty carbon by burning it! Genius! They must want to keep all their filthy industries for sentimental reasons or something, I suppose.
I find it ironic when a warmist tells me C02 levels will reach, or have reached some milestone that they’ve hit in the past.
My reply is always: “You mean back when the world ended?”
So much time and effort worrying at the peak of the interstadial. It’s like ants worrying over the height of individual blades of cut grass but seem totally oblivious to the jagged cliff just beyond the edge of the yard.
By far, the most important area of research is to figure out what parts of the world can best support each type of food-chain species beyond the edge of the encroaching stadial ice. We may have to bunk up.
At least this guy is a bit more prepared. Do you suppose he is worried about the height of the grass when he gets to the top?
Holy crap! Imagine gambling your life on that thin sheet of ice.
Can’t help myself. Lemming cartoons depicting unaware cliff jumping.
http://santiagocasares.com/chilisworld/tag/lemmings/
Look at all the sheeple standing around contemplating and studying the growing amount of woolly lint in their navels.
One more and then I will stop,
Fear of heights much, Pam?
Only if those homes are Ant-Man sized.
Well, that settles it. If we hit a “tipping point”, let’s end all this nonsense and move on to something more productive.
Whatever. One “tipping point” or another has been declared since the 00s. They declare a tipping point, wait a few years, and then declare a new tipping point again for renewed scaremonging. Example from 2005:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2005/aug/11/science.climatechange1
The temperature last week reached 100 F. For the last few days it dipped by more than 20 F. The expectation is that the temperature will rise by at least 10 F and probably 20 F in the near future. Catastrophic!
One more point – nobody mentions the name of the person who pulled the 2.0 out of thin air and now all the self-made experts and politicians are quoting the figure and of course no reference to any science.
In other words, “Plan A failed to scare the sheep. Time for plan B.”
Or, “Dang! Moving the goalpost didn’t work. Time to raise the bar!”
Or, “The Model’s were wrong? We don’t need no steeken models! We need headlines!”
PS Happy Independence Day in advance for the US and belated for the UK.
So… If we’re going to have to work hard now to prevent that dreaded 2 C. rise, how are they going to take the credit when things get a whole lot cooler??? These people just don’t think ahead. They’ll have to come up with a miracle cure now for an instant overnight success, you know, for us little people who “don’t understand the science”.
I’m looking forward to the soon-to-be much needed explanations. 🙂
Simple. They depend on the sheepletons not remembering past claims. And they’ve sold them on the idea that warming causes cooling. Some buy into that.
The politics is driving the meme now. The minions will back anything for a short term election gain.
It’s those working for a long term ideological gain that need to be dethroned.
That’s it. Move those goal posts.
The encouragement for emigration from Kiribati relates to population density not sea level rise. Most of the population live on Sth Tarawa, which has a population density of 8000/sq km. This exceeds that of Hong Kong.
Their biggest threat is depletion and contamination of resources – particularly fresh water. Coral atolls are reliant on a lens of fresh ground water that is replenished by annual rainfall. If the supply is over-utilised it is replaced by increasingly saline water lying beneath and around the lens.
The Australian government is spending millions on aid to Kiribati. A full-time environmental engineer is employed to solve the unenviable problems. Contamination of the water supply via effluent filtering down through the coral-debris soils is a real problem. Solutions include permanent de-salination plants and emigration on a large scale.
This island was heavily modified by the Americans during ww2 building an airstrip from crushed coral on the exposed side of the island ,it’s slowly eroding because of the damage done by dredging .
Yes, the erosion and deposition dynamics on coral atolls are very fluid.. Put something somewhere the system does no approve of, then it can disappear very quickly, reverting to its natural state and dynamics
There is an interesting book called “An Island to oneself” This recluse lived alone on a Pacific Island for a couple of years. He spent 6 months rebuilding by hand. a jetty/causeway made from rocks (probably blocks of coral), A few months later a storm came in and wiped it out again. That was the beginning of his depression 🙂 .
Yes we have reached the tipping point of peak stupidity.
A database server may show degradation of performance at the same rate that x amount of users log in and perform tasks, but then at a certain number of users and tasks the performance drops like a rock; the tipping point. It happens. The results of the tipping point is well known, but the actual tipping point is not known until it occurs or is tested for. Load testing is common in determining application performance capability and what governors need to be put in place to prevent the tipping point being reached.
By overlooking that climate tipping point theories cannot be tested and the aftermath of this hypothetical tipping point is unknown, this same concept is nonetheless and without shame applied to climate. This allows alarmists to pick a degree, any degree and call it the tipping point when in fact, “Climate tipping point” has to be the most amorphous, poorly-defined entity in the history of science. It is bloody meaningless.
alx July 1, 2016 at 7:35 pm … VERY well stated. Thank you.
Reply to Lou M. @ur momisugly7:26pm
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CO2 absorbes virtually all the radiation available to it @ur momisugly~20ppm. Most of the thermal effect occurs at that level. At 400ppm, you can’t detect the additional thermal effect.
I believe 20ppm would be too low a concentration to absorb to extinction all of the absorbable IR. I will check and see if it is possible.