Worst science of the year: “‘Unprecedented’: Scientists declare ‘global climate emergency’ after jet stream crosses equator”

Paul Beckwith has a masters degree in laser optics, which he has somehow parlayed into being a “Climate System Scientist” to spread alarmism about the climate system.

But his post “Unprecedented, Jet Stream Crosses Equator” suggests he knows little of meteorology, let alone climate.

A “jet stream” in the usual sense of the word is caused by the thermal wind, which cannot exist at the equator because there is no Coriolis force. To the extent that there is cross-equator flow at jet stream levels, it is usually from air flowing out of deep convective rain systems. That outflow often enters the subtropical jet stream, which is part of the average Hadley Cell circulation.

There is frequently cross-equatorial flow at jet stream altitudes, and that flow can connect up with a subtropical jet stream. But it has always happened, and always will happen, with or without the help of humans. Sometimes the flows connect up with each other and make it look like a larger flow structure is causing the jet stream to flow from one hemisphere to the other, but it’s in no way unprecedented.

We’ve really only known about jet streams since around WWII…one of my professors, Reid Bryson, was one of the first to advise the U.S. military that bombers flying to Japan might encounter strong head winds. The idea that something we have been observing for only several decades on a routine basis (upper tropospheric winds in the tropics) would exhibit “unprecedented” behavior is rather silly.

I especially like this portion of Paul’s post:

“We must declare a global climate emergency. Please consider a donation to support my work..”

Nice touch, Mr. Beckwith.

About 10 minutes after publication this post was updated to correctly attribute a quote to Robert Scribbler, and the “tabloid climatology” graphic was added. – Anthony

UPDATE: Joe Bastardi adds this via email

In 1975 (or 1976) we had a cold front ( from the south) cross the equator.  I remember people flipping out about that, the awe of it, not that it was some kind of magical sign of impending doom. In any case that is even more impressive to see a trough from the south push so much to deliver such an event.

Here is the article reference in the journal:

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0477(1976)057%3C1435%3AASHCFP%3E2.0.CO%3B2

Here is the 1957 version:

http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/092/mwr-092-11-0513.pdf

UPDATE2:

The normally pro-AGW Capital Weather Gang calls this claim “utter nonsense”.

Ryan Maue, a senior meteorologist with a doctoral degree who works at WeatherBell Analytics, agreed with Mass that the cross-equator flow is totally normal and not evidence of a joint hemispheric jet stream. “Cross-equatorial flow at both upper and lower levels is part of the seasonal transition of the Western Pacific monsoon through boreal summer,” he said.

To be clear, the hypothesis that global warming is destabilizing the polar jet stream is a legitimate idea that has been published in peer-reviewed journals, though it remains controversial. But even the scientist who developed the hypothesis, Jennifer Francis, a professor of meteorology at Rutgers University, suggested it had been misapplied by Scribbler and Beckwith. “I’d say cross-equator flow cannot be unprecedented, maybe not even all that unusual,” she said.

…

Such information viewed through the lens of a non-specialist may come across as both credible and alarming but damages the reputation of the science when ultimately shown to be flawed.

“This fear-mongering helps no one,” Maue said.

UPDATE3: (7/3/16)

Even Michael Mann says the claim is bunk.