UEA: Brexit Remain Vote Probability Zero – UPDATE Brexit WIN

EU_flag-fractured

Guest essay by Eric Worrall

A tremendous political drama with broad ramifications for Global Climate Policy is unfolding in Britain, as referendum votes are tallied for whether Britain should remain part of the European Union.

While the general consensus is the result is running neck and neck, with an almost 50:50 split in the vote, Chris Hanretty, reader in Politics at the University of East Anglia, home of the infamous Climatic Research Unit, thinks the chances of Britain voting to remain part of the EU is zero.

EU referendum rolling forecasts

03:00 Fifth forecast update

My predictions continue to be much more pessimistic for Remain than the betting markets, though they seem to be in between estimates from Michael Thrasher and JP Morgan.

Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0

(81 of 382 areas reporting.)

Predicted vote share for Remain: 47.1 percent.

(90% prediction interval: 46.1 to 48.1 percent)

Read more: https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/eu-referendum-rolling-forecasts-1a625014af55#.rv1inwb7a

The British EU referendum vote has potentially major consequences for global climate policy. Prominent greens seem to want Britain to remain part of the anti-democratic EU, because this would bind elected British politicians to continue to adhere to strong European Union green targets.

A British vote to leave might even trigger a soviet style unravelling of the entire EU – France, Holland and Italy are also preparing to hold referendums to leave the EU, if Britain votes to leave.

More to come, when the count is complete.

UPDATE (EW): Brexit is looking even more likely – other major polling organisations are predicting a victory for Britain leaving the European Union.

Sky News

http://www.skynews.com.au/news/top-stories/2016/06/24/voting-continues-in-brexit-referendum.html

Guardian

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/23/eu-referendum-result-live-counting-leave-remain-brain-in-europe

etc.

UPDATE 2 (EW) – BREXIT Wins, Prime Minister David Cameron, who supported remain, resigns. If the “Brexit Contagion” spreads, this may be a fatal political blow to the hardline green policies of the European Union.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/eu-referendum-results-live-brexit-wins-as-britain-votes-to-leave/

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jstanley01
June 23, 2016 8:02 pm
Marcus
Reply to  jstanley01
June 23, 2016 8:21 pm
Reply to  Marcus
June 24, 2016 12:12 pm

Well the left wing socialist experiment is over and Britain escaped.. I hear muttering that they’re going to be alone over this – but I’d remind those folk that the Commonwealth is still strong, Britain still has allies, there after all these years .. and that the Commonwealth has held together so firmly it proves the right wing policy of allowing people self determination rather that dictation in their own countries is the best way.

Bryan A
Reply to  Marcus
June 24, 2016 12:44 pm

Just sit right back and you’ll hear a tale,
A tale of a fateful trick
That started from this UK port
and led to the Brexit.
Prince Charles was a mighty sailing man,
The Queen was brave and sure.
the commonwealth set sail that day
For a twenty three year tour, a twenty three year tour.
The weather started getting rough,
The commonwealth was tossed,
If not for the courage of the voting crowds
The Brexit would be lost, the Brexit would be lost.
The UK’s now back on firm ground autonomy in sight
With Prince Charles
The Queen’s there too,
David Cameron resigned with his wife,
there might be turmoil
within the other member states,
Here on Brexit Isle.

Reply to  jstanley01
June 23, 2016 8:50 pm

Can’t see any real time stuff at the BBC. Not surprised.
Best site I have found is http://www.telegraph.co.uk.
“Remain camp … trailing Leave by more than 589,000 votes” at 4:24am.
“Leave have swept up more than 13 million of the 16.8 million votes needed to win” at 4:38am.
Looks like UEA might have finally got something right 🙂

SC
Reply to  Martin Clark
June 23, 2016 9:09 pm

It was an advisory referendum and thus not legally binding upon parliament in any event. The vast majority of MP’s publicly supported remaining in the EU so they wouldn’t be moving fast anyway. If they did leave they would have something resembling the arrangement non-EU member Norway has with the EU. Basically it abides by and passes most if not all EU laws anyway.
My guess is that the bankers are going to inflict some major pain on Britain.

simple-touriste
Reply to  SC
June 23, 2016 9:33 pm

“It was an advisory referendum and thus not legally binding upon parliament in any event.”
So they can stay until the European bullies are neutralized.

SC
Reply to  Martin Clark
June 23, 2016 9:22 pm

The good news is that the depression will drastically reduce Britain’s energy consumption so it’s a big win for the climate scientists, Even better is when the budget cuts eventually do come, just like with the Australian climate scientists, they’ll be out of jobs.
HadJOB4.4 as it were.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2016/feb/04/csiro-confirms-300-job-cuts-with-climate-research-bearing-the-brunt
I don’t think they thought about that.

LdB
Reply to  Martin Clark
June 23, 2016 10:16 pm

You would need to be a brave politician to stand up and tell the 52% there vote doesn’t count in a democracy SC. You might have got away with it on an almost tied vote but no politician is brave enough to try that on.

Reply to  Martin Clark
June 23, 2016 10:59 pm

SC said: “It was an advisory referendum and thus not legally binding upon parliament in any event.”
NO. You are wrong SC. The great British public has spoken. Government HAS to bow to the will of the people.

Sparky
Reply to  Martin Clark
June 24, 2016 4:54 am

Actually we still need the eu to vote to allow us to leave under article 50 !!. but we have up to 2 years to negotiate

ferdberple
Reply to  Martin Clark
June 24, 2016 9:24 am

It was an advisory referendum and thus not legally binding upon parliament
=====================
Charles I probably thought the same thing.

Bryan A
Reply to  Martin Clark
June 24, 2016 10:15 am

SC
With Bankers involved, will it be a Major Pain or something more akin to Capital Punishment

sadbutmadlad
Reply to  Martin Clark
June 25, 2016 1:42 am

@SC, “If they did leave they would have something resembling the arrangement non-EU member Norway has with the EU. Basically it abides by and passes most if not all EU laws anyway.”
Norway doesn’t pass most of EU laws. It does that required for trade, just the same as countries that sell to the US follow US regulations. Actual figure is about 10% of Norwegian laws are EU ones, unlike the UK where the figure is way higher.
http://www.aecr.eu/less-than-10-of-norways-laws-emanate-from-brussels/

Reply to  jstanley01
June 23, 2016 9:27 pm

Leave 52% to 48% called by the BBC minutes ago.

TG
Reply to  asybot
June 24, 2016 3:33 am

A swift UK boot to the rear end of the EU elitist, the beginning of the end of world government and their phony climate plans– Oh so sad!

3x2
Reply to  jstanley01
June 23, 2016 10:47 pm

https://www.thesun.co.uk/ (valid only on 24th June 2016)

3x2
Reply to  3x2
June 23, 2016 10:48 pm
3x2
Reply to  3x2
June 23, 2016 11:07 pm

Done deal – 7am UK time … We are OUT

Tom Halla
June 23, 2016 8:11 pm

The real problem with “scientific” issues that become political is to act early enough to make sure you can vote the puppies out. The US EPA is getting like the EU climate change bureaucrats, very difficult to remove.

Science or Fiction
Reply to  Tom Halla
June 23, 2016 9:46 pm

So also with United Nations – unelected powerful bureaucrats – far out of line with their charter.

Mick In The Hills
Reply to  Science or Fiction
June 23, 2016 10:16 pm

Yes our Australian ABC just has an EU “expert” on who conceded that the EU had incrementally expanded its mission over these past 3 or 4 decades to the extent that people in the UK (and elsewhere) were concerned about their nation losing its identity and sovereignty .
The EU unelected bureaucrats and media elite have cheesed the people off by laying down too much regulation for them to swallow.
Taken together with the Trump populist push-back in the US, the politico-media elite should be worried. The plebs are mad as hell, and not going to take it any more.
The UN will be next to feel the disdain of the plebs.

E.M.Smith
Editor
Reply to  Science or Fiction
June 24, 2016 1:44 am

IMHO, it was the kettle ban wot dun it
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2016/06/22/laugh-or-cry-and-then-they-came-for-the-kettle/
Never mess with a Brits tea….

ozspeaksup
Reply to  Science or Fiction
June 24, 2016 3:52 am

to EM SMiths kettle comment, yeah the cuppa is sacred:-)
followed by?
the ban on any vacuum cleaner over 900w also another EU gem
that one seems to have been pushed by Dyson and EU collaborating
under the guise of green low energy use etc
thing is? theyre 4x the cost of alt cleaners so they can be great as they like,
if theyre unaffordable its of little use to someone looking for repair or a cheap new unit.

Reply to  Science or Fiction
June 24, 2016 4:21 am


James Dyson was firmly & publicly against the ban on high-powered hoovers, despite it not affecting his products.
He said it was a scam orchestrated by the big, mainly German, manufacturers in order to make competition, (especially small technologically disruptive competition) harder.

Science or Fiction
Reply to  James Bolivar DiGriz
June 24, 2016 11:34 am

A ban on high-powered would be pretty much like a ban on well-done steaks – quite silly!

TG
Reply to  Science or Fiction
June 24, 2016 4:25 am

The Queen helped lead the way when she endorsed Brexit last week. Long live the Queen.

urederra
Reply to  Science or Fiction
June 24, 2016 8:05 am

Brussels is the new Vatican, The EU president is like a Pope, not elected by the people, but in a conclave and he thinks his policies are ineffable, like when the Pope speaks about faith.

Barbara
Reply to  Science or Fiction
June 24, 2016 12:45 pm

So the Queen pulled the rug out from under the PM!

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Science or Fiction
June 24, 2016 11:24 pm

“TG June 24, 2016 at 4:25 am”
That is strange as she has German heritage. Phillip is Greek.

simple-touriste
Reply to  Science or Fiction
June 25, 2016 1:18 pm

“The EU president is like a Pope”
At that point, the EU is like a Pope who would order a conclave on the right to enter a church with wet hairs when these same conclavists are busy making sextapes.
The EU is broken. The “europhiles” are batcrazy.

Gabro
Reply to  Science or Fiction
June 25, 2016 1:23 pm

Patrick,
Philip is of German-Danish descent. His dynasty was chosen to rule Greece, but he has no Greek ancestry. He was however born in Greece, so in that sense, you’re correct.
If not for EII’s Scottish mother, Prince Charles would be as about German-Danish as the queen’s father, George VI.

Felflames
Reply to  Tom Halla
June 24, 2016 1:52 am

One executive order created The EPA.
One executive order can terminate it..

TG
Reply to  Felflames
June 24, 2016 3:46 am

Please make it so!!!!

MarkW
Reply to  Felflames
June 24, 2016 7:13 am

It was created by an executive order, but lots of laws further implementing have been passed since then.
It will take more than a mere executive order to terminate that monster.

george e. smith
Reply to  Felflames
June 24, 2016 7:26 am

“””””…..
MarkW
June 24, 2016 at 7:13 am
It was created by an executive order, but lots of laws further implementing have been passed since then. …..”””””
Well lots of ” regulations ” imposed by unelected beaurocrats have been passed. Not so many laws written by the elected members of the Congress. Perhaps some intelligent unelected new beaurocrats can unregulated all of that crap.
G
Yes I know; I like mine better !

simple-touriste
June 23, 2016 8:12 pm

“France, Holland and Italy are also preparing to hold referendums to leave the EU, if Britain votes to leave.”
Weed? Vodka? What is your thing?

Reply to  Eric Worrall
June 23, 2016 9:32 pm

Leave are the good guys. The remain people are sycophants and finally get what they deserve. The whining by the Remain people on BBC is disgusting they are treating the Leave voters as if they are stupid, don’t know nothing. All they are talking about is the Pound losing value. I bet you within 1 week the whole thing will stabilize and it will be better for Britain. I am buying British products every time I can!!!

simple-touriste
Reply to  Eric Worrall
June 23, 2016 9:50 pm

The remain champions are people who believe the motivations are the Islamist in Orlando are unclear and should be investigated for months before any analysis is proposed, and the guy had psychological issues and it’s a “hate” crime anyway (the opposite of a “love” crime, or a “I don’t hate you and I don’t care about you either way” crime, or something) … but when a very progressist pro-remain (and pro “Palestine”) MP is killed, the meaning of the crime is clear even before the body is cold, it was caused by the brexiters even though they haven’t really caused it, their arguments have caused it (or something), and it’s a political event and the murder is part of the political campaign…
So thank you Barrack Hussein.
Thank you the Dem party.
Thank you the graun.
Thank you the globalist medias.
And thank you Jean-Claude the bully Juncker.

Alan the Brit
Reply to  Eric Worrall
June 24, 2016 3:53 am

@simple-touriste: According to my beloved (& somewhat discheveld) 1925 Pocket Oxfrod English Dictionary, an interesting definition cropped up a couple of words above the one I sought, (Juno). The word was……..Junker: “Member of the reactionary land-owning aristocracy in Prussia”! Naaah, must be just a coincidence,……surely?

Samuel C Cogar
Reply to  Eric Worrall
June 24, 2016 6:21 am

simple-touriste said:

but when a very progressist pro-remain (and pro “Palestine”) MP is killed, the meaning of the crime is clear even before the body is cold, it was caused by the brexiters even though they haven’t really caused it,

T’wouldn’t surprise me at all ….. iffen it was a select group of “Remainers” who intentionally sacrificed “one-of-their-own” ……. in a failed attempt to garner a “last minute” sympathy vote from the gullible Britons.
Remember, LBJ beat out Goldwater for the POTUS job by airing an AD portraying a pretty little girl getting blown up by an H-bomb when she was picking wildflowers.
Goldwater promised to H-bomb North Viet Nam to end the deadly carnage of US military personnel. The bleeding-heart liberals and other partisan Democrats voted for LBJ …. and the carnage continued unabated.

oeman50
Reply to  Eric Worrall
June 24, 2016 7:04 am

I heard a snooty Brit on the radio here in the US this AM saying the UK has “turned its back on the world” and is “returning to an isolationist island nation.” I guess that means the UK never achieved anything before the EU. What a crock.

george e. smith
Reply to  simple-touriste
June 24, 2016 7:39 am

There may be a side play. I saw at least one ‘ news ‘ broadcast from Scotland, that suggested that most Scots, voted to stay, and are unhappy with being ” dragged out ” against their wishes.
That (if true) could result in the UK itself doing a nuclear fission.
Any case, though none of my business directly, my ancestral ties there are acknowledged and respected. And I say; ” Good on ya Mates ! ” And I’m happy to learn (from WUWT above) that Her Queenness was supportive; I always felt she was that way inclined.
And it might also strengthen (voluntarily) the Commonwealth of Nations. I’d welcome that too.
But supportively; because now I am a Yank, and a dehyphenestrated one, so again NOMB !
All in all another great day for FREEDOM.
G

Editor
Reply to  george e. smith
June 24, 2016 9:16 am

If the scots want out of the UK, fine.
Now the oil price has nosedived, their economy is effectively bankrupt.

Gabro
Reply to  george e. smith
June 24, 2016 10:31 am

Scotland, NI and London may rethink their interest in leaving the UK to stay in the EU if their exit means having to adopt the funny money Euro.

Philip Peake
Reply to  george e. smith
June 24, 2016 2:52 pm

Its true that every county in Scotland voted to remain. But what they are not mentioning is that the voter turn-out in Scotland was significantly lower than in England (around 60% in Scotland and more like 75 to 80% in England).
If the turnout had been similar, there might have been a very different voting pattern in Scotland. (Same applies to N. Ireland).

Mark Thomas
Reply to  george e. smith
June 26, 2016 11:41 am

Philip Peake said:”
Its true that every county in Scotland voted to remain. But what they are not mentioning is that the voter turn-out in Scotland was significantly lower than in England (around 60% in Scotland and more like 75 to 80% in England).”
Wrong! Scottish turn-out was more that 67% with a 62/38 split in favour of remaining, whereas England was less than 73% with a 53/47 split in favour of leaving. Even if Scotland’s turn-out has been as large as England, and all the extra votes were to leave, The Scottish vote would still be overwhelmingly in favour of remaining.
Don’t put Scotland down like that with false figures plucked from the air!

Marcus
June 23, 2016 8:17 pm

Leave up by 500,000…Looks good !

Janice Moore
June 23, 2016 8:17 pm

Dear God, let it be so! The United Kingdom did not fight to prevent its domination by European powers over and over and over to succumb to them now…
Rule, Britannia!

GO, UNITED KINGDOM!!!
***.***.***.***.***.
(for those who believe in God, I will tell you something very personal — I have been praying this prayer for many years, now, “Please, destroy the European Union (as an entity).” Maybe, God is saying, “Yes!” 🙂 )

Marcus
Reply to  Janice Moore
June 23, 2016 8:22 pm

Leave up 600,000 now

simple-touriste
Reply to  Janice Moore
June 23, 2016 8:30 pm

EU-as-a-peace-entity already self-destroyed in order to intimidate the people.
The credibility of the globalist mafia reached a new low.

Janice Moore
Reply to  Janice Moore
June 23, 2016 8:51 pm

Oh, dear British people, turn around! Look back….. the British soldier stumbling and falling on the fields of Waterloo….. of Flanders….. and on “Gold” and “Sword” beaches…. is waving you on…. .
Do — it — for — them.

V

Paul Westhaver
Reply to  Janice Moore
June 23, 2016 9:32 pm

Hello Janice.
I dislike globalism because I believe western democracies, esp UK, USA, Can, are special.
I don’t like 3rd world mud hut dwellers making policy to which I must adhere.
Buy the pound!

Janice Moore
Reply to  Janice Moore
June 23, 2016 9:43 pm

Hello, Paul Westhaver! I can’t buy any pounds, but ISN’T THIS JUST SOOOO COOOOOL?!!!
Okay! Put up both your hands, high — and HIGH TEN! (I just virtually smacked them with mine 🙂 )

Paul Westhaver
Reply to  Janice Moore
June 23, 2016 10:20 pm

HIGH TEN.

Another Ian
Reply to  Janice Moore
June 24, 2016 1:40 am

Janice
Along those lines
Have you read Bernard Cornwell’s Sharpe series?

Janice Moore
Reply to  Janice Moore
June 24, 2016 7:48 am

Hi, Another Ian,
Thanks for asking, no. I just looked them up on Amazon and they look terrific — for someone who likes a lot of battles and military operations, etc.. While I enjoy historical novels, and Cornwell’s appear to be of the best sort, I don’t enjoy reading about military campaigns, etc.. Just boring to me (tedious or something) — just the way my brain is wired. I am VERY pro-military, though.
Thanks for sharing!
Janice

Reply to  Janice Moore
June 23, 2016 9:34 pm

Janice , one of the main reasons I left many years ago was this. I saw it coming ever since the EU allowed the immigration of “guest workers” I wish I would have bet money on it. But at least praying worked for us!!

Janice Moore
Reply to  asybot
June 23, 2016 9:46 pm

A Sybot…. hello, dear Dutchman (at heart). You and Mrs. Sybot were very wise, indeed. Way-to-go, getting out when you did. Oh, yes, yes. Prayer works. Sometimes, God says, “No,” or “Wait” (a looooooooooooooooooooooooooong time (sigh)), but! Sometimes….. God — says, “Yes!!!
Signed: Your WUWT pal — JANICE!
#(:))

John Harmsworth
Reply to  Janice Moore
June 23, 2016 10:14 pm

The French Socialist leaches are at the heart of it. It is therefore rotten.

Gabro
Reply to  Janice Moore
June 23, 2016 10:43 pm

I could do without George III and the anti-American sequences.

Reply to  Janice Moore
June 23, 2016 11:11 pm

Well said Janice. We WON! Rule, Britannia indeed 🙂
(yes, I’m a Brit, but not one who believes in divine intervention!)

Janice Moore
Reply to  Luc Ozade (@Luc_Ozade)
June 23, 2016 11:14 pm

Thank you, Luc! Stand tall and proud!
(and, I will pray that someday you do… 🙂 )

Mr Green Genes
Reply to  Janice Moore
June 24, 2016 1:10 am

Please!!!
Enough of your god-bothering nonsense. This has nothing to do with anyone’s imaginary friend and everything to do with the British people taking an entirely rational decision.
– Yours, “pompous” hee hee

ClimateOtter
Reply to  Mr Green Genes
June 24, 2016 3:05 am

Yes, the EU is certainly an imaginary ‘friend’!

Janice Moore
Reply to  Mr Green Genes
June 24, 2016 7:44 am

Dear Mr. Green Genes,
People, even the British, often act irrationally, in spite of all the best efforts of those who try to show them the facts. Therefore…. . Well, anyway — hurrah for the UK! 🙂
btw: Kind if interesting, isn’t it? Rationally speaking, I mean…. how MANY of us over the decades and centuries, all over the world…. have the exact same “imaginary friend.” Something to think about, eh, Mister?
#(:))
Your Ally for Truth in Science,
Janice

brians356
Reply to  Mr Green Genes
June 24, 2016 1:32 pm

“In God We Trust.” That has a familiar ring to it. I wonder who thought of it?
You know, Green Genes, far more true scientists than you could bear to know about are Christians.

feliksch
Reply to  Janice Moore
June 24, 2016 1:50 am

A union can be something very good. The EU bureaucrats and their God-denying, money-seeking enablers have taken many wrong turns, however, and no improvement of their judgement capabilities is in sight.

george e. smith
Reply to  Janice Moore
June 24, 2016 7:40 am

You GO Girl ! with all my best wishes.
G

Janice Moore
Reply to  george e. smith
June 24, 2016 7:53 am

Dear George,
You probably meant that for the UK as “Liberty” is often personified as a woman, but, just in case that was directed at me, not too far above you…, thank you (if I’m not mistaken — blush). I’m so glad to know that you and I are still “friends” after our little verbal fisticuffs. That old shoe you threw at me didn’t hurt my elbow, much, but it hurt my heart. Glad all is well!
Your Ally for Truth,
Janice

LdB
June 23, 2016 8:27 pm

Just over 61% vote counted and leave at 51.4% that is going to a bit hard to make up and so his 0% probability would be correct if you are a pessimist. The optimist is waiting for big swing of last minute votes because all the remain voters were working 🙂

John Harmsworth
Reply to  LdB
June 23, 2016 10:17 pm

If only he could predict climate half as well.

climatereason
Editor
June 23, 2016 8:27 pm

Leave currently have 51 .3 percent of the vote but there are still many millions of votes to count. It is entirely unexpected as all the pundits had been predicting a remain vote. There is panic in downing street and Brussels.
Tonyb

Marcus
Reply to  climatereason
June 23, 2016 8:29 pm

Leave is up 700.000

LdB
Reply to  climatereason
June 23, 2016 8:42 pm

Yes saw that. There is a better live link it shows the time stamp of the number
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/23/leave-or-remain-eu-referendum-results-and-live-maps/
The update at 4.34 London time puts the count at 77% and the number worsening 51.7%.

Gabro
Reply to  climatereason
June 23, 2016 8:46 pm

Rule, Britannia!
Britons never, ever will be slaves!
Congrats to England and Wales, overriding Northern Ireland and the Scottish National Socialist Party.

commieBob
Reply to  Gabro
June 23, 2016 10:49 pm

Britons never, ever will be slaves!

From a very long time ago, I remember something like:

Rule Britannia
Britannia rules the waves
She never has any trouble with her bacon and eggs.

The English guys who sang the above lyrics seemed to think they were profound. Clearly, because I was from the wrong side of the Atlantic, I didn’t understand.

Gabro
Reply to  Gabro
June 23, 2016 10:52 pm

That’s the inscrutable East for you!
Their rugby songs are a lot nastier yet easier to grasp.

John Harmsworth
Reply to  climatereason
June 23, 2016 10:23 pm

Much too early for panic for the remain side. Britain will now bargain with a stronger hand. The socialist basket case of Scotland may leave the U.K. to go back to the EU- if the EU wants another Greece!

Margaret Smith
June 23, 2016 8:54 pm

I’ve been watching TV all night and although there are still more results to come, we are nearly there.
Wonderful!
Cameron’s dream of the EU Presidency has now evaporated.

simple-touriste
Reply to  Margaret Smith
June 23, 2016 9:10 pm

“Cameron’s dream of the EU Presidency has now evaporated.”
Why?

Felflames
Reply to  simple-touriste
June 24, 2016 2:01 am

Can’t be president of a club if you are not a member.

simple-touriste
Reply to  Felflames
June 24, 2016 7:34 am

“if you are not a member”
What? GB isn’t a member?

simple-touriste
Reply to  Margaret Smith
June 25, 2016 1:28 pm

“Cameron’s dream of the EU Presidency has now evaporated”
Cameron or someone else, at that point I can’t imagine a EU Presidency other than GB.
The other 27 countries left “Europe”, and their nations. No nation wants to hurt itself to hurt GB. Our heads of states look pretty much likes administrators authorized by Germany.
This isn’t going to go well.

son of mulder
June 23, 2016 8:58 pm

Currently results are 52% to 48% in favour of leave. For a remain result the remaining 66 out of the total 382 voting areas they need to increase from 48% to 56%. That would require some pretty wierd remaining areas. If I were a betting man we are out of the EU. Yahoo!!!

climatereason
Editor
Reply to  son of mulder
June 23, 2016 9:05 pm

I never thought I would see this day. Whoo,!
Tonyb

June 23, 2016 8:59 pm

I think it will be a good thing overall if they leave the EU. There will still be NATO. I think the Brits want to be free…

ozspeaksup
Reply to  J. Philip Peterson
June 24, 2016 3:57 am

you say that as if NATO is a good thing?

simple-touriste
Reply to  ozspeaksup
June 25, 2016 2:17 pm

NATO is the excuse of Europe countries.
Before Airbus 400M, French army was even depending on Russia transports for delivery of its materials!

charles nelson
June 23, 2016 9:04 pm

On more than one occasion now the British have had to rescue Europe from itself.
If the Brexit happens it certainly marks the end of the current European Project in its present form.
I feel quite proud that the ordinary people had the guts to stand up in the face of a filthy media campaign of slurs and denigration. Anyone, however mild their disposition, who even hinted that they might be discontented with the status quo was immediately labeled a racist/fascist. That tactic looks like it has failed.

climatereason
Editor
Reply to  charles nelson
June 23, 2016 9:07 pm

Ultimately we didn’t like being bullied. Scary and exciting times.
Tonyb

son of mulder
Reply to  climatereason
June 23, 2016 9:19 pm

And we wanted democratic control of our government with leaders we can kick out when they screw up.

Tom Harley
Reply to  climatereason
June 23, 2016 10:52 pm

Now, BrexitUN, AusexitUN and get rid of all the socialist leeches.

emsnews
Reply to  climatereason
June 24, 2016 4:56 am

EU Zombies! Movie coming soon.

simple-touriste
Reply to  charles nelson
June 23, 2016 9:17 pm

Actually the European dream was dead, cold and rotten already (it was still moving though).
The pro-EU managed to provide additional evidence that EU isn’t a peace project but an imperialist project, as the brexiter were arguing.
Obumer helped the brexit a lot.

Reply to  simple-touriste
June 23, 2016 9:58 pm

simple touriste. + many!

Reply to  simple-touriste
June 24, 2016 2:10 am

Cold and rotten but still moving, the movement caused by the maggots eating the carcase.
(Sorry to put you off your breakfast.)

george e. smith
Reply to  simple-touriste
June 24, 2016 7:48 am

The absolute cheek of a foreign dictator, trying to influence the lives of a would-be-free people !
But that excuse that we have for a CIC, knows no bounds either of diplomacy, or of common sense.
While he tries to further enslave the Americans; the Motherland decides that freedom and National Sovereignty is best for them.
G

JohnKnight
Reply to  simple-touriste
June 24, 2016 6:55 pm

simple-touriste . .
That was sweet indeed . . he’s “helping” Ms. Clinton now, lucky lassy ; )

simple-touriste
Reply to  charles nelson
June 25, 2016 3:07 pm

“Anyone, however mild their disposition, who even hinted that they might be discontented with the status quo was immediately labeled a racist/fascist. That tactic looks like it has failed”
I have a theory that these schemes (you must be stupid to vote “no”, you must be racist, you must be xenophobic, only uneducated people vote “no”) produce the opposite result or at least reliably promote the opposite views.
But this time a tipping point was passed: the “you didn’t kill Jo Cox, but”.
“but” means you basically did it (in a “did not do it” kind of way, or something).

markl
Reply to  simple-touriste
June 25, 2016 3:56 pm

simple-touriste commented: “….I have a theory that these schemes (you must be stupid to vote “no”, you must be racist, you must be xenophobic, only uneducated people….”
add to that anti science, want to pollute the earth, conspiracy theorist, and you have the same mentality coming from the CAGW crowd. In both cases the narrative is supported by the MSM. Look at the state of politics in the US now. The two candidates for arguably the most important position in the world are doing the same thing.

simple-touriste
Reply to  markl
June 25, 2016 7:01 pm

Another propaganda/credibility tipping point passed: the French medias are parroting the idea that Nigel Farage just admitted that a key brexit promise was an impossibility. (Without mentioning which promise.)
The “promise” is the reallocation of Europe money to NHS, and it was a proposition “let’s …”. Clearly there was never a promise “if you vote brexit that money will automatically go to the NHS, by law”. This would have been patently absurd. The referendum never was about raising money for the NHS.
The only clear “promise” was that such money would be under the absolute control of the GB, not Europe, and that NHS wasn’t barred as a recipient (just like offering gold watches to traders in the City to help with the brexit trauma wasn’t barred).
At that point I am not sure if the journalists just don’t get modality (there is no guaranty that P vs. P is an impossibility by law or by nature) or if they are dishonest. I guess both is an option.

catcracking
June 23, 2016 9:06 pm

All the British media has called the vote, Leave has won.

Janice Moore
Reply to  catcracking
June 23, 2016 9:32 pm

HIP, HIP, HOORAY!!!!!!!!

If I wasn’t in a hotel I would be SCREAMING FOR JOY!!!!

Annie
Reply to  Janice Moore
June 23, 2016 10:49 pm

I feel like dancing! Yippee!!!

Janice Moore
Reply to  Janice Moore
June 23, 2016 11:08 pm

Me, too, Annie! Who cares if we have no partner (maybe you do, I do not)!!!
THIS tune will do nicely!
(I was thinking about posting this earlier, and NOW I have my opening 🙂 )

Yeeeeeeeee — haw!
#(:))

Annie
Reply to  Janice Moore
June 24, 2016 5:10 am

That’s great fun Janice, thank you! Very suitable as I live in Australia although I am English. 🙂

brians356
Reply to  Janice Moore
June 24, 2016 1:34 pm

Go ahead and scream, they’ll just assume you’re enjoying something else.

Steve Oregon
June 23, 2016 9:14 pm

Can they keep their toasters and tea kettles now?
The left wing, everywhere, is so damned dumb and dishonest.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/10/eu-to-launch-kettle-and-toaster-crackdown-after-brexit-vote2/
EU to launch kettle and toaster crackdown after Brexit vote

Reply to  Steve Oregon
June 23, 2016 11:38 pm

Not to mention their Hoovers.

TG
Reply to  Joel O’Bryan
June 24, 2016 4:05 am

I have the fastest energy goblining toaster, electric kettle, vacuum cleaner and a ripping Internet router etc….etc…….etc….. and I love them!!!
If we vote remain we will be powerless to prevent an avalanche of EU energy efficacy regulation that Brussels is delaying until after the referendum – Junker.

Reply to  Steve Oregon
June 24, 2016 5:10 am

And a heart-felt “Oooh-rah” for Great Britain…. but, to quote the great Benjamin Franklin, “If you can keep it.” The Left will never, ever, ever give up. They’ll drag their feet, whine about how it was only a 2% edge, throw all sorts of bricks on the rails for disentanglement and try to find a way to drag the British people back into the EU one way or another. Also, don’t discount the fury that Merkel will bring — she has sworn a blood-oath to make Europe not only Socialist but “multi-cultural” and she will do all that she can (with the economic might of Germany behind her) to punish the British. Never underestimate the Hun. So, while I’m delighted by the vote, I see a lot of stormy weather ahead for the UK.

Reply to  Bryan R. Johnson
June 24, 2016 6:04 am

Does that mean not selling german made windmills to great britain. Oh the horror. Congrats to brexit, thanks for pissing off obummer

Reply to  Bryan R. Johnson
June 24, 2016 6:19 am

JP – and a +10 to you. Our Dear Leader already stuck his putter into the vote a few days ago. Who know what tantrum he’ll pitch now that the British people have made their will known.

simple-touriste
Reply to  Bryan R. Johnson
June 24, 2016 8:01 am

It isn’t the end, but I think it’s the beginning of the end.
For the idea that EU is the European dream, it’s the end period. The “I love you and we must be together and if you leave me I will make your life hell” isn’t a turn-on. Jean-Claude Juncker absolutely must leave.

ferdberple
Reply to  Bryan R. Johnson
June 24, 2016 10:49 am

how it was only a 2% edge
============
52-48 = 4%
4%/48% = 8.3%
Nearly 10% more people voted leave than remain..

Reply to  ferdberple
June 24, 2016 11:06 am

I was trying to channel the arithmetically challenged: 52% — the last figures I saw when I wrote my comment — is just 2% over the majority (50%). The Left will use anything to twist truth. Would that the actual figures had been much, much more dramatic (80/20) but we play the hand we’re dealt.

ferdberple
Reply to  Bryan R. Johnson
June 24, 2016 10:57 am

she will do all that she can (with the economic might of Germany behind her) to punish the British.
====================
she has her army of gropers ready to march on the UK at a moments notice. though it could be that the german women will not feel so kindly towards Merkel at the next election. not every fräulein enjoys the cold hands of a stranger up their backside.

ossqss
June 23, 2016 9:20 pm

The hope for real change has started!
BTW, market chaos tomorrow. Hold on!

ossqss
Reply to  ossqss
June 23, 2016 9:29 pm

Sam The First
June 23, 2016 9:24 pm

Phew! The British people – the chippy Scots an the metropolitan elites in Lodnon apart – have saved us from the grasping fist of Brussels.
We Brits dislike being talked down to or ordered about. Nelson would be proud of us this morning.
Now maybe we can keep the lights on!

LdB
June 23, 2016 9:27 pm

You can bet the result sent shockwaves thru lots of green groups with whats likely to happen if politicians introduce radical climate change policy post Paris agreement. You can’t push political agendas without strong and continual support from the masses.

simple-touriste
Reply to  LdB
June 24, 2016 7:53 am

Also you can’t have an epistemology that is so much variable and inconsistent: The Pulse/Jo Cox.
Yes, I believe it’s an historical defeat of hysterical anti-epistemology.

richardX
June 23, 2016 9:30 pm

Will the vote be like climate science, I wonder, where the results are “adjusted” to obtain the “correct” results?

June 23, 2016 9:32 pm

It’s pretty much official ! Brexit wins. Happy Independence Day Britain. By by EU.

ossqss
Reply to  Mario J Lento
June 23, 2016 9:44 pm

Janus
Reply to  Mario J Lento
June 23, 2016 10:18 pm

Can Canada become a British colony again? Please?
(We can give you our prime minister as a clown for Comical relieve, when the going gets tough in the parliament )

ferdberple
Reply to  Janus
June 24, 2016 11:01 am
markl
June 23, 2016 9:35 pm

Sovereignty wins! Congratulations.

Janice Moore
June 23, 2016 9:36 pm


GO, UNITED KINGDOM!!!!
Wheeeeeeeeeeeeee! I am — so HAPPY!
🙂
🙂
🙂
***.***.***.

Peter S
Reply to  Janice Moore
June 23, 2016 9:50 pm

I think they just reclaimed the right to be called Great Britain again. 🙂
I am just a bit sad that I had been living overseas too long to vote myself.

Janice Moore
Reply to  Peter S
June 23, 2016 9:56 pm

Great Britain, indeed, Peter! 🙂
Isn’t it just so cool how happy all the liberty loving people of the WORLD are?! 🙂
I’ve never set foot in the UK, and I am beaming. And I have NO doubt that thousands of Brits (including my great-great-great….. grand-ancestors) are leaning over the balconey of heaven and cheering — Hurrah!!!
🙂

Reply to  Peter S
June 24, 2016 12:34 am

No: we’ve just decided to be a 3rd world country .
– Sterling has fallen to its lowest level since 1985 – marking a sharper dive even than on Black Wednesday in 1992.
Britain was only ‘Great’ when it used slave labour & used gunboat diplomacy to plunder other peoples resources
Read history.
Strange how people who –
‘never set foot in the UK’
think they know whats best for us.

afonzarelli
Reply to  Peter S
June 24, 2016 12:57 am

Do you care to elaborate on why the obvious ain’t so obvious before bashing all the peops on the other side of the pond, saveenergy?

Another Ian
Reply to  Peter S
June 24, 2016 1:47 am

Saveenergy must have voted remain?

1saveenergy
Reply to  Peter S
June 24, 2016 2:22 am

afonzarelli
I’m not “bashing all the peops on the other side of the pond” …only the armchair ex-sperts with lots of opinions & little knowledge.
If you think separation is such a good thing, fragment the USA… then let each state take on China & Russia independently see how well you get on.
Winston Churchill ‘United States of Europe’ in his own words
at 1.30min https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ln4SRnt4VE0
Study history

Owen in GA
Reply to  Peter S
June 24, 2016 8:51 am

1saveenergy,
And yet when the first European trade union was formed for Coal and Steel in the 50s, Churchill was dead-set against Britain tying itself to that nonsense. He stated that Britain should be “with Europe, not in it”. Of course if you go back to his statements in 1930, he was all for a united Europe then…hmmm, I wonder what might have happened to change his mind in the intervening 20 years, something there, but I doubt you would put your finger on it!
Selective study of history is much like the selective study of climate…you can draw whatever conclusion you want then go find the data to back your preconceived conclusion.

Auto
Reply to  Peter S
June 24, 2016 1:33 pm

Came across this today.
Anglo-centric, certainly!

But humorous . .
Auto

Janice Moore
Reply to  Peter S
June 24, 2016 2:34 pm

Auto,
Thank you for that. You made me smile. Yes, yes, veddy hyoomohduss. Lol, and the poor Canadians get insulted in the usual way …. not even mentioned!
You American Ally for Science Realism,
Janice
#(:))
***.***.***.***.***

afonzarelli
Reply to  Peter S
June 24, 2016 3:04 pm

Very well, just wanted to know where you were coming from. (didn’t quite have you sussed ol’ chap) Bash away… ☺

catweazle666
Reply to  Peter S
June 24, 2016 5:48 pm

saveenergy: “No: we’ve just decided to be a 3rd world country .”
Utter, absolute, 100.00% 24 carat bollocks.
You really haven’t the first clue.

JohnKnight
Reply to  Peter S
June 24, 2016 7:28 pm

“If you think separation is such a good thing, fragment the USA…”
It was born one country, and now we must overcome the SJW in Chief and all his cannibalistic spawn, to keep it from disintegrating . . you flaming hypocrite.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  Peter S
June 25, 2016 12:48 am

“saveenergy June 24, 2016 at 12:34 am
No: we’ve just decided to be a 3rd world country .”
Really? Too funny. So the UK needed the EU to be not 3rd world? Really? Seriously? Given the fact that Britain brought wealth and industry to the world.
However, you have politicians, voted for by the people, in the UK pursuing the policies of the Climate Change Act which will see the UK descend into “3rd world” status, eventually. As long as their carbon emissions meet targets.
Italy today has 1.3 persons collecting state welfare for every 1 person working and paying taxes. The UK is not far behind, 20-30 years. Almost all other countries in the EU zone are in the same boat. With industry, jobs and emissions being exported to Asia, how do you think that will work out in 20-30 years?
Former 1st world countries becoming 3rd world countries.

June 23, 2016 9:42 pm

It’s pretty much official ! Brexit wins. Happy Independence Day Britain. Bye Bye EU. I have a lot of gold stocks that have been stagnating for the past few years. I held on expecting The world economy to hit some lows under the liberal leadership. The debt and 0 and negative interest rates will have had their toll on everything normal. Maybe I will wake up many tens of thousand ahead of the game tomorrow morning.

Reply to  Mario J Lento
June 23, 2016 10:25 pm

It is official…vote tally passed the mark about ten minutes ago.

E.M.Smith
Editor
Reply to  Mario J Lento
June 26, 2016 2:40 pm

Congratulations on your gold win!

LdB
June 23, 2016 9:45 pm

Are they still saying Cameron will resign or be pushed?
There would be a few nervous politicians I imagine with lots of recriminations.

Reply to  LdB
June 23, 2016 10:11 pm

If the Brits are going to sit around for 2 years ( Article 50, French and German elections) you can bet your bottom dollar that the pressure on the British economy. (Forces like the US, Germany, French and so on ) will be enormous. And I will not be surprised if, to begin with it is going to be very hard for England. I think they should get out asap! I think Northern Ireland and Scotland will understand eventually they will be better of as a UNITED KINGDOM!

Annie
Reply to  asybot
June 24, 2016 5:15 am

Germany had better remember how many cars and white goods it exports to Great Britain before getting too stroppy with us. I’ll have a personal boycott of German goods if they start being unduly awkward.

Patrick MJD
Reply to  asybot
June 25, 2016 12:51 am

“Annie June 24, 2016 at 5:15 am”
I think you will find the Mk6 VW Golf is made/assembled in South Africa.

Peter S
June 23, 2016 9:46 pm

Interestingly enough, the Labour/left wing commentators are still blaming the immigration issue and not “getting the message across” for the vote.
They just don’t get that the vote was always about democracy, pure and simple.
The choice was a trade between a level of comfort financially that came with a form of slavery to the un-elected bureaucracy of the EU or democratic freedom.
Yes, there is going to be a cost to that freedom, but the price is worth it.
Second message is don’t believe the polls. The polls are not going to be accurate because the liberal media tends to be so intolerant that they label those that disagree as intolerant, evil, stupid or simply bad, and in doing so they drive many into the position of being secret supporters.

Onyabike
Reply to  Peter S
June 23, 2016 10:00 pm

Winston Churchill had some advice for the left-wingers: “However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results” Good on ya, Poms – welcome back to the commonwealth – we missed ya!

1saveenergy
Reply to  Onyabike
June 24, 2016 2:07 am

Winston Churchill ‘United States of Europe’ in his own words
at 1.30min https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ln4SRnt4VE0
Study history

Annie
Reply to  Onyabike
June 24, 2016 5:16 am

Thanks Onyabike.

Samuel C Cogar
Reply to  Onyabike
June 24, 2016 8:19 am

Iffen Winston Churchill stated ‘United States of Europe’ then he was surely referring to all the European countries UNITED against Germany and its Dictatorial government.
The Nazi regime of the 30’s and early 40’s is akin to what the EU regime has been trying to establish in the 2000’s.

Owen in GA
Reply to  Onyabike
June 24, 2016 9:05 am

1saveenergy,
There you go again quoting the 1930 Churchill document again. By 1950, he had reversed himself. His concept for the UN for instance had representation by region and he put Great Britain and the Commonwealth as a separate representation area from Europe. WWII convinced him that the cultural and value differences between Britain and the the rest of Europe were too great to overcome. He came to see Europe as a close partner due to proximity, but not as a governing block.
Selective study of history is like selective study of climate science – it is easy to find the data you need to support your preconceived conclusion, it just requires ignoring all evidence to the contrary.

1saveenergy
Reply to  Onyabike
June 24, 2016 4:30 pm

Owen in GA
Not 1930s
Sir Winston Churchill called for the creation of a ‘United States of Europe’ in his famous 1946 Zurich speech.
http://www.churchill-society-london.org.uk/WSCHague.html
Churchill presided the first European Federal Congress at the Hague in 1948.
http://www.cvce.eu/en/education/unit-content/-/unit/7b137b71-6010-4621-83b4-b0ca06a6b2cb/4b311dc0-cbe6-421d-9f9a-3bc8b1b155f6
read history & check facts

LdB
Reply to  Peter S
June 23, 2016 10:05 pm

Yes I agree they are so convinced in their own self righteousness they don’t see any of that … the cause is worth any cost. You see the same thing with the CAGW crowd labelling people deniers etc.

Hugs
Reply to  Peter S
June 23, 2016 11:49 pm

Yes, they DID get the message across.
It is all about democracy.

Evan Jones
Editor
Reply to  Hugs
June 24, 2016 3:38 pm

Yes.

June 23, 2016 9:50 pm

I cashed out of every stock in every account last week, even my 401k.
It was looking dumb for a few minutes there this week, but now i am so damn happy?
I will buy back in at much lower levels.
Stocks and energy selling of big time around the world at this moment, gold up nearly 8%.
Could be more now…it is moving so fast.
Stock market here in US will be brutal on Friday!
Yay!
Called one right.

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Menicholas
June 24, 2016 8:04 am

Yup, bargains galore. Picked up a couple myself today, after the markets stabilzed a bit.

Reply to  Tom in Florida
June 24, 2016 8:12 am

Could be a dead cat bounce. I expect a big sell off at the end of the day.
I’m going to wait and pick my spot I expect the market will be down a lot more than this within a few weeks.

Tom in Florida
Reply to  Tom in Florida
June 24, 2016 9:40 am

Perhaps but as a swing trader I looked for short term bargains that I have had on my watch list and have been waiting for the vote to see where they ended up. As you probably know, fear and greed move the market and fear is in charge right now. I suspect as the details of how there are two years to implement the withdrawal from the EU start to emerge the fear will subside.

Reply to  Tom in Florida
June 24, 2016 2:41 pm

Menicholas…note that there was no big sell off. I think the manipulators trying to push the market down will not be able to get the momentum they want. The media was flooded with the scare stories of how harmful the consequences of Leave would be, and that Remain was a fairly sure prospect. Now that their forecasts have been proven wrong I think that people will realize that the gloomy market forecasts are also wrong.
Then in the last several days, there were some voices of reason giving their reasons why the alarmists position was overblown. Still the market was up high again, anyway. It was likely that a downward shift would take place, and the Leave decision was a great time for the bears to make a move.

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