It’s no surprise to us that the “monster” El Niño of 2015/2016 created a very large global temperature spike, after all, that’s what the natural process that creates the phenomenon results in due to the Pacific ocean near the Equator not being able to dissipate heat to space as effectively as it usually does. NOAA says that “ENSO is one of the most important climate phenomena on Earth due to its ability to change the global atmospheric circulation, which in turn, influences temperature and precipitation across the globe. ”
But, as they say, “what goes up, must come down”. NOAA has this to say about the current state:
After dominating the tropical Pacific for more than a year, El Niño ended in May 2016. Near- or below-average temperatures existed in 3 out of 4 ENSO monitoring regions of the tropical Pacific. And for the first time in 2016, wind and air pressure patterns were consistent with neutral conditions. There’s a 75% chance that La Niña will develop by winter. NOAA’s next ENSO update will be released on July 14.
The latest forecasts show La Niña conditions developing this fall, and with it, global temperatures will come down:
And in fact, they already are. Here are some selected global temperature plots. First the lower troposphere from University of Alabama Huntsville, Dr. Roy Spencer and Dr. John Christy:
![UAH_LT_1979_thru_May_2016_v6[1]](https://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2016/06/uah_lt_1979_thru_may_2016_v61.jpg?quality=83)
The big spike from El Niño is clearly evident, followed by the drop in global temperature. And as you can see, as of May, it has already lost about half of the peak value.
Looking at RSS (the other satellite data set from Carl Mears) I chose to use Nick Stokes temperature viewer. It also shows recent global temperature plummeting.
For the surface record, here is the NCEP 2 meter global temperature plotted along with the tropical region where El Niño resides, by Dr. Ryan Maue. It also is going down.
The NCEP plot has also lost about half it’s value since the peak of nearly 1°C, and is now at 0.55°C as of June 14th, 2016.
A 90 day averaged version of the NCEP 2 meter global temperature data shows a sharp dropoff.
When looking at the NCEP data by hemisphere, the southern hemisphere is already below the zero anomaly line:
The southern hemisphere has most of the water surface on Earth, so it is interesting that it has cooled faster than the northern hemisphere, which has most of the land and surface thermometers. This map below shows how the northern hemisphere has so many more thermometers.
Note that world population is almost entirely in the northern hemisphere, so will be the infrastructure that accompanies human population.
Since the El Niño event clearly drove global sea surface temperatures, which in turn affect air temperatures with global air currents transporting that heat, and the northern hemisphere showed a peak signal about double that of the southern hemisphere, it is yet another suggestion that the surface temperature record is polluted by the effects of urbanization encroaching on thermometer viewsheds.
The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature (BEST) Land and Ocean data plotted by Stokes viewer also shows a huge drop in temperature over a very short time:
Here are the remaining land and ocean datasets, NOAA GHCN2, HadCRUT, and NASA GISS. It is important to note that HadCRUT and NASA GISS are interpretd derivatives of the NOAA data.
What’s clear, is that no matter what dataset you look at, global temperatures are headed down, and fast. This may spoil activist plans for a planned celebration of of 2016 being yet another “hottest year ever”. Scientific American blazed a headline on May 18th that said: 99 Percent Chance 2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record.
Maybe, but what is equally 99% certain is that 2017 won’t be the “hottest year ever”.
We live in interesting times.
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I can just hear it now, “we got laid off from the global warming industry after the global temperature crash in ’17….”
I just want to know how many cords of wood to split up.
Split cords can be very atonal.
Perhaps Emmanuel Ax in Action?
..All of it !!
That was my question also.
And is it two winters away?
A question for the crowd
Suppose for a moment that the climate temperatures over the next 5 years cooled so much that even the government goons could not hide the decline in average temperature. Suppose further that sites like this one kept telling the public about the decline. Heck, suppose some politicians even mentioned the decline.
Question: what would be the alarmists excuse for this decline?
Oh, they have already made excuses for cooling. ‘Warming will not be monotonous’ covers it.
Andrew
monotonic
it sure is monotonous to hear them banging on about it.
“The Day After Tomorrow”
Warming causes cooling.
Didn’t you know that?
Hollywood does.
(I know I’ve got a sarc tag around here somewhere….)
Well, it might go something like this, “We reached the tipping point we warned you about. It was so catastrophic that it tipped us over backwards.” See they’ve still got their crisis and their phony baloney jobs. And we’ll have to subsidize a Warmth For The Poor program with our taxes.
CAGW will do as they always do if it starts to get colder, ignore it. What they will do is jump on some weather event as proof. Trying to pin CAGW down on something specific has been likened to nailing jello to the wall. Pause? what pause?
geoengineering .
They’ll probably say that they fixed the problem, but that now there is another one – in the opposite direction – and it’s all our fault! Send money!
“Question: what would be the alarmists excuse for this decline?”
Answer: George Clooney stopped donations, hasn’t made an alarming movie and Leo forgot to plug in his electric car before Elon M. took his Our cash to Venezuela.
Climate change, just like now!
This rapid rise and fall of measured temperature around the globe is telling us something. What is it? If it is driven by solar input or tectonics our modern instruments would quickly record a correlation.
I struggle with the concept of the ocean storing then burping heat to any significant degree. My understanding is that the only factor that can cause an inverted temperature column in the ocean relates to salinity. Heat rises. How can it be trapped at depth? Temperature cells can be unevenly distributed and transported laterally, as is well documented along the equator, but this cannot (IMO) explain the way terrestrial temperatures respond so quickly.
If equatorial water is restricted in cooling through a change in currents that normally transfer the heat to higher latitudes this is only a change in heat distribution, not net output. Why should this suddenly heat the globe?
I am beginning to agree with others here that while wind and ocean currents may be a trigger, the main control over this rapid rise and fall is insulation (cloud). What else can respond and influence so rapidly?
I have two hypotheses
As you mention clouds, and some such self reinforcing weather pattern, winds, jet stream warm blob kind of thing. A very general answer because beyond this, it’s all I have.
Or
Is some combination of heat redistribution that changes the proportion of tropical to polar air masses over the continents, that is magnified by the processing.
There’s another point, the derivative of daily max temp when averaged by year, is a few thousands of a degree dithering around 0.0F.
But, the derivative of min temp has big swings, but at different places at different times, which fits a change in tropical water vapor. We see a 10 to 20F swing in max temps because of this. But GATs average all of this away, and you don’t see it anymore. I think there has been an increase in temps, but it’s just the remainder of the increase that the big swings on min temp doesn’t explain.
The change in air masses, in Ohio it can switch twice over 3 or 4 days.
There’s a lot of data at my WordPress pages.
I did find a document that explains the zenith temp I’ve been measuring is preciperable water vapor, I just need to calibrate my IR thermometer. But it still is the radiativity at the surface in the 8-14u band. My next code updates is I want to calculate the heat carried by water vapor.
https://micro6500blog.wordpress.com/2015/11/18/evidence-against-warming-from-carbon-dioxide/
https://micro6500blog.wordpress.com/2016/05/18/measuring-surface-climate-sensitivity/
Here is something I wrote back towards the end of last year. I was going to expand on it further, but some life issues distracted me shortly after I fleshed out the thought fully. I hope to get back to this in the near future and take a second more complete look at the concept. Also, I noted a discrepancy in the graph posted by D Archibald after I had completed my thoughts. That is partly why I will need to start from the beginning with a more detailed study of the correlation, if any, between hemispheric sunspot number dominance correlating with changes in the ENSO regions…https://goldminor.wordpress.com/2015/11/19/my-analysis-of-the-sunoceanenso-connection/
Also to see the rough correlation which first caught my attention look at Silso monthly hemispheric graph in relation to global temps over the past 70 years. When I look at the different temp graphs I have concluded that the recent shift points of climate run from the years 1946/47 to 1976/77, slight cooling phase; and the warming from 1976/77 to 2006/07, warming phase. ..http://sidc.oma.be/silso/monthlyhemisphericplot
Notice that it can readily be seen that the northern hemisphere of the Sun was dominant from at least 1950 to 1976/77. Afterwards the southern hemisphere turns dominant after1977 and stays that way through 2007. Now look at the MEI graph and note that it can be seen that ENSO negative conditions are dominant from 1950 to 1977; and positive ENSO conditions are dominant from 1977 to 2007. The picture that forms for me is that the cooling trend correlates with northern hemisphere sunspots dominant, while the warming trend correlates with southern sunspots dominant. Thus I have come to believe that the cooling of the ENSO region which is now steadily progressing is once again being forced by the shift of sunspot dominance back to the northern hemisphere of the Sun. That process first started last December, and the effects are now becoming apparent. There is a lag in the system which makes sense to me. That much above average heat can not disappear overnight so to speak. Although it also makes sense to me that with the right conditions this cooling process can speed up, if the northern hemisphere stays fully dominant as it mainly has done, except for the slight shift of the last 3 weeks where hemispheric conditions shifted briefly and slightly in favor of warming. To my way of perceiving events that is why the cooling abated for the last several weeks. Lastly, I see nature as having entered the beginning of a cooling trend from 2006/07, and that should hold for approximately 30+ years. There is more to this. I hope to add to this in the near future.
It turns out the AGW is just Alinsky Global Warming. Whatever it takes to shore it up will be done.
Agree.
Given the discussion in this thread, there does not appear to be any form of statistical analysis that could account for all the variables as well as the non-linear progression of individual data sets. Therefore, modeling long term climate is impossible.
Comments?
Another comment. Some of the required data sets either do not exist or do not exist in a credible form. It does not even appear we know what data sets we need to build the model.
Can’t wait for the Winter Games in Cairo.
Right, the pyramid bobsled run is truly heart stopping to watch.
Also of note, look at the changes in the western side of the Indian Ocean, the lower eastern side of So America, and the Middle of the Gulf Stream off of No America. For some reason currents moving through Drakes Passage went cold around early November of last year. These regions of the oceans will also make a difference as this year progresses. It is not just the ENSO regions which have undergone significant change.
Look at what WeatherZone shows for the Indian Ocean. A large part of the Indian Ocean has cooled quite a bit as compared to January of this year. …http://www.weatherzone.com.au/climate/indicator_sst.jsp?lt=global&lc=global&c=ssta
WUWT has been pointing out all along that the “warmest ever” hype during the El Nino event was itself an El Nino event. This post kind of puts the full stop at the end of that sentence.
We’re all going to freeze. We’re doomed.
From Anthony’s article at the top, please refer to the second map, showing SST anomaly temperatures globally. Then refer to the tropical eastern Pacific where the red arrow points to the green squiggle.
There is some speculation about what might cause this particular, interesting pattern – assuming it is proper data and not an artefact of gridding/smoothing or the like.
Since patterns like this can sometimes help explain mechanisms, can readers venture ideas about that serpentine shape?
Geoff
Geoff,
It is a vortex street, produced here by a Kelvin Helmholtz instability. When you have a jet, as in the equatorial stream moving west, where moving water is adjacent to still, vorticity is created, and rolls up into such a pattern. Here is a Wiki picture
It isn’t quite the same at a Karman street, because there isn’t a shedding object. As I mentioned above, there is an animation of the recent ENSO jet here.
I’m looking forward to the resumption of the pause.
Excellent thread – bookmarked.
Has anyone measured the microwave output variation from the Sun during El Nino/La Nina events at the equator.on a daily interval?
The northern hemisphere land masses are heating up now because of increased solar radiation but what goes up must come down and they will cool down soon because of decreasing solar radiation, If the cooling down is greater than it heating now we should not simply attribute this to a la nina but to reduced solar activity.
The coolest calendar year since the start of the 21st century was 2008, according to UAH lower troposphere temperature data. 2008 was -0.10C cooler than the 1981-2010 annual average in that data set.
Does anyone expect 2017 to be cooler than 2008 in the UAH data?
After the 1997/98 El Nino it took around 18 months for temps to drop to a low point, which coincidentally matched the 2008 low. Using that as a template of what might be expected then I would say that potentially temps could match or exceed the 2008 low point by the end of 2017. If temps continue to fall at the current rate, then it may not take 18 months to reach UAH 2008 levels.
temperatures shall drop after this fscinating new theory on solar wind, sunspots and climate
http://gpcpublishing.com/index.php?journal=gjp&page=article&op=view&path%5B%5D=443
Isabelle, that theory is not a new one. And has been debunked repeatedly. Just for starters, research the author. Then research the general topic of planetary influence on solar behavior. Hooking yourself to this theory because you find it fascinating is not a standard of good research critique.
can’t find any debunk, sorry, only original interesting unpreceedented research. do you have some link to critique regarding this theory?
temperatures are falling down after this new theory
http://gpcpublishing.com/index.php?journal=gjp&page=article&op=view&path%5B%5D=443
Isabelle-
“temperatures are falling down after this new theory ”
Not sure what you mean. Are you saying that because of this “new” (not) theory, temperatures are falling? Because that makes no sense. Or that temperatures are falling, which is predicted by this theory? (along with many others)
Solar activity, and solar winds has been studied for decades, and Laplace figured out spherical harmonics back in the late 1700’s. So you’ll have to tell us what it is about this paper that you find to be”new” and “unprecedented research”.
this is not indefinite harmonic analysis smthing, this is physics with mathematical proof over the phenomena and the underlying mechanisms
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/05/30/may-2016-enso-update-the-201516-el-nino-has-reached-its-end/comment-page-1/#comment-2226677
[excerpt]
I plotted UAH Lower Troposphere (UAHLT) global temperature anomalies vs Nino34 anomalies and there appears to be a fair-to-good correlation especially for the 1997-98 and 2015-16 El Nino’s, with a ~4-month lag of UAHLT after Nino34.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=1012901348787427&set=a.1012901982120697.1073741826.100002027142240&type=3&theater
It appears reasonable to conclude that global temperatures will fall steeply for the rest of 2016 and then continue to decline for an equal or greater time, but on a flatter trajectory.
I also predicted net global cooling (defined as colder than +0.2C UAHLT anom) by about mid-2017 based on low solar activity, but hope to be wrong about that. Warm is good, cold is bad – it IS that simple.
Regards to all, Allan
You have a nice correlation there with plausible cause suggestion. What makes you think your graphed correlation and plausible cause suggestion will suddenly stop and instead be taken over by another cause?
Thank you Pamela,
Your question:
“What makes you think your graphed correlation and plausible cause suggestion will suddenly stop and instead be taken over by another cause?”
My answer, in very general terms (I‘ve been awake for about 20 hours so this could be rough):
First, an aside:
Note that the 1982-83 El Nino had little impact on global temperature (as UAHLT). Bill Illis suggested that the reason was: “El Chichon volcanic eruptions. Early April 1982, -0.4C cooling impact lasting for 3 years with a diminishing effect over time of course.”
Next, regarding your question:
The first phase of cooling is short-term rapid cooling for about 6 months, the typical steep global temperature decline from a major El Nino warm event, as the warmth shed during the El Nino from the ocean into the atmosphere is again shed from the atmosphere (presumably) into space.
Next:
This rapid post-El Nino cooling can be seen to moderate after about 6 months in the past major El Nino event, typically cooling more gradually for several more months. There may or may not be a significant La Nina cooling – I have not analysed this. Then it is anyone’s guess where global temperatures will go – will they settle at a slightly higher plateau like 1997-98, get warmer or get cooler?
I suggest that solar intensity governs in this next time frame, and a quiet Sun, especially two consecutive quiet solar cycles like SC24 and (probably also) SC25, will lead to significant multi-decadal global cooling, similar to the post-WW2 global cooling period from about 1940 to 1975, or (probably) cooler.
I think we will cross into global cooling territory (defined as below +0.2C UAH LT global temperature anomaly) sometime in 2017 (but the data is messy, so even after another decade this timing may be debatable). Thereafter, with the usual ups and downs, Earth will continue to get cooler, as described above.
During this multi-decadal global cooling period, I expect atmospheric CO2 will continue to increase, but at a lower rate than in previous decades. We may get the occasional 12-month period where atmospheric CO2 actually declines, as occurred during the aforementioned post-WW2 global cooling period.
Finally , I suggest that the catastrophic humanmade global warming (CAGW) hypothesis was effectively disproved during the post-WW2 global cooling period from ~1940 to ~1975, and will be similarly disproved again during the next global cooling period.
At some point in time, even the most fervent adherents to global warming religious mania will either convert to climate reality, of die of exposure on their Alaskan beaches.
As usual, I hope to be wrong about imminent global cooling – warm is good, cold is bad – it IS (almost) that simple.
Regards to all, Allan
Pamela – some references:
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/05/28/greens-blame-donald-trump-for-crumbling-paris-climate-accord/comment-page-1/#comment-2225581
I have not had the time to expand on my (our) prediction of imminent global cooling. I wrote in an article in the Calgary Herald published on September 1, 2002:
“If (as I believe) solar activity is the main driver of surface temperature rather than CO2, we should begin the next cooling period by 2020 to 2030.”
This prediction was based on the work of Paleoclimatologist Dr. Tim Patterson at Carleton University,
We now say global cooling will start by 2017, but I suggest that 2020-2030 is close enough, especially since we wrote this in 2002.
Finally Pamela, here is why this all matters.
I suggest that the extremely high Excess Winter Mortality Rate in the UK and several other countries is a symptom of this growing problem.
An Open Letter to Baroness Verma (2013)
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/10/31/blind-faith-in-climate-models/#comment-1462890
“All of the climate models and policy-relevant pathways of future greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions considered in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) recent Fifth Assessment Report show a long-term global increase in temperature during the 21st century is expected. In all cases, the warming from increasing greenhouse gases significantly exceeds any cooling from atmospheric aerosols. Other effects such as solar changes and volcanic activity are likely to have only a minor impact over this timescale”.
– Baroness Verma
I have no Sunspot Number data before 1700, but the latter part of the Maunder Minimum had 2 back-to-back low Solar Cycles with SSNmax of 58 in 1705 and 63 in 1717 .
http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/space-weather/solar-data/solar-indices/sunspot-numbers/international/tables/
The coldest period of the Maunder was ~1670 to ~1700 (8.48dC year average Central England Temperatures) but the coldest year was 1740 (6.84C year avg CET).
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/data/download.html
The Dalton Minimum had 2 back-to-back low SC’s with SSNmax of 48 in 1804 and 46 in 1816. Tambora erupted in 1815.
Two of the coldest years in the Dalton were 1814 (7.75C year avg CET) and 1816 (7.87C year avg CET).
Now Solar Cycle 24 is a dud with SSNmax estimated at ~65, and very early estimates suggest SC25 will be very low as well.
The warmest recent years for CET were 2002 to 2007 inclusive that averaged 10.55C.
I suggest with confidence that 10.5C is substantially warmer as a yearly average than 8.5C, and the latter may not provide a “lovely year for Chrysanths”.
I further suggest with confidence that individual years averaging 7.8C or even 6.8C are even colder, and the Chrysanths will suffer.
So here is my real concern:
IF the Sun does indeed drive temperature, as I suspect, Baroness Verma, then you and your colleagues on both sides of the House may have brewed the perfect storm.
You are claiming that global cooling will NOT happen, AND you have crippled your energy systems with excessive reliance on ineffective grid-connected “green energy” schemes.
I suggest that global cooling probably WILL happen within the next decade or sooner, and Britain will get colder.
I also suggest that the IPCC and the Met Office have NO track record of successful prediction (or “projection”) of global temperature and thus have no scientific credibility.
I suggest that Winter deaths will increase in the UK as cooling progresses.
I suggest that Excess Winter Mortality, the British rate of which is about double the rate in the Scandinavian countries, should provide an estimate of this unfolding tragedy.
As always in these matters, I hope to be wrong. These are not numbers, they are real people, who “loved and were loved”.
Best regards to all, Allan MacRae
Turning and tuning in the widening gyre,
the falcon cannot hear the falconer…
– Yeats
________________________
MY CONCLUSIONS:
EVIDENCE SUGGESTING TEMPERATURE DRIVES ATMOSPHERIC CO2 MORE THAN CO2 DRIVES TEMPERATURE
September 4, 2015
By Allan MacRae
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/06/13/presentation-of-evidence-suggesting-temperature-drives-atmospheric-co2-more-than-co2-drives-temperature/
Observations and Conclusions:
1. Temperature, among other factors, drives atmospheric CO2 much more than CO2 drives temperature. The rate of change dCO2/dt is closely correlated with temperature and thus atmospheric CO2 LAGS temperature by ~9 months in the modern data record
2. CO2 also lags temperature by ~~800 years in the ice core record, on a longer time scale.
3. Atmospheric CO2 lags temperature at all measured time scales.
4. CO2 is the feedstock for carbon-based life on Earth, and Earth’s atmosphere and oceans are clearly CO2-deficient. CO2 abatement and sequestration schemes are nonsense.
5. Based on the evidence, Earth’s climate is insensitive to increased atmospheric CO2 – there is no global warming crisis.
6. Recent global warming was natural and irregularly cyclical – the next climate phase following the ~20 year pause will probably be global cooling, starting by ~2020 or sooner.
7. Adaptation is clearly the best approach to deal with the moderate global warming and cooling experienced in recent centuries.
8. Cool and cold weather kills many more people than warm or hot weather, even in warm climates. There are about 100,000 Excess Winter Deaths every year in the USA and about 10,000 in Canada.
9. Green energy schemes have needlessly driven up energy costs, reduced electrical grid reliability and contributed to increased winter mortality, which especially targets the elderly and the poor.
10. Cheap, abundant, reliable energy is the lifeblood of modern society. When politicians fool with energy systems, real people suffer and die. That is the tragic legacy of false global warming alarmism.
Allan MacRae, Calgary
Before everyone says it I will say it of course this initial cooling is due to the ending of the strong El NINO.
Secondly in the future if cooling proceeds and happens to be in conjunction with increased volcanic activity that would be one of my solar /climate connections I have presented in the past . I just know solar deniers will say it is the volcanic activity independent of solar activity if that should occur.
Thirdly finally it looks like many of the solar criteria I have called for that are needed to impact the climate are starting to be approached from solar flux readings below 90 to EUV light below 100 units to cosmic ray counts approaching 6500 units.
Solar wind still to high along with the AP index for now but these value should come down going forward.
Finally we will have to see how the cooling evolves over the next few years in that if an increase in global cloud coverae, a decrease in global sea surface temperatures, a more meridional atmospheric circulation pattern , and an increase in volcanic activity come about as the cooling proceeds this will lend more credence to the solar /climate connection.
Lastly if prolonged minimum conditions exist La Nina should rule ENSO although when the sun is in a regular sunspot cycle El Nino tends to occur near solar minimums, not at solar maximums.
Here are the specifics on solar criteria needed to impact the climate to a colder condition in my opinion. These conditions were likely present during the Maunder and Dalton minimums.
Solar Flux – sub 90 sustained.
Cosmic Ray Counts – in excess of 6500 units sustained.
Solar Irradiance -ff by .15% sustained
AP index – or lower sustained via a weak solar wind.
EUV light – 100 units or less.
Solar Wind – 350 km/sec or lower sustained.
How cold I can not be specific because I believe there are climatic thresholds that could be breached if solar conditions are weak enough and long enough in duration which would drive natural climatic drivers to such extremes that climatic thresholds could come about.
These natural climatic drivers being the following:
1. Global cloudiness via galactic cosmic rays tied into the solar wind strength.
2. Atmospheric circulation patters via ozone changes tied into changes in EUV light.
3. Sea surface temperatures via changes in UV light.
4. Volcanic Activity via changes in muons which are tied into galactic cosmic ray intensities.
5. ENSO -tied into overall solar conditions. La Nina I think might occur if a prolonged minimum solar condition came about.
6. Increase in sea ice and global snow cover due to atmospheric changes and lower global temperatures from all of the above.
ALBEDO – this would change if global cloudiness increased along with ice and snow cover which if it only increased by a mere 1% would impact the temperatures of the earth.
Weakening Earth Magnetic Field would compound solar effects and the field is weakening at a fairly rapid clip.
That is my take on it.
I have just been taking a break along with moving from Ct. from Mi. over the past 6 months or so and waiting for the solar maximum to end which has finally now occurred. Hence my absence.
If there ever was a single damning graphical representation of the doomsayers and panic merchants with CAGW and the Club of Rome mentality it has to be that World’s Population by Latitude one. Have a guess where the world’s population will spread as the globe continues its warm cycle folks? Demography101 warmies.
The natural millennial temperature cycle peaked in the RSS data at about 2003/4 The 60 year cycle peaked at about the same time. The corresponding solar activity driver cycle peaked at about 1991.The 12- 13 year delay is due to the thermal inertia of the oceans. For forecasts of the timing and amplitude of the coming cooling see
http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-imminent-collapse-of-cagw-delusion.html
Before it is said I will say it of course this initial cooling is due to the ending of El Nino.
Secondly if Volcanic Activity should pick up as the cooling proceeds that is one of my solar/climate connections and is NOT independent of the solar tie in.
Thirdly now many of my solar low avg. value parameters are starting to be reached. EUV LIGHT falling below 100 units of late, Cosmic Ray Counts approaching 6500 units, Solar Flux falling below 90.
Solar Wind/ AP INDEX still high but they should fall if this solar minimum proceeds.
Here are the specifics on solar criteria needed to impact the climate to a colder condition in my opinion. These conditions were likely present during the Maunder and Dalton minimums.
Solar Flux – sub 90 sustained.
Cosmic Ray Counts – in excess of 6500 units sustained.
Solar Irradiance -off by .15% sustained
AP index – 5 or lower sustained via a weak solar wind.
EUV light – 100 units or less.
Solar Wind – 350 km/sec or lower sustained.
How cold I can not be specific because I believe there are climatic thresholds that could be breached if solar conditions are weak enough and long enough in duration which would drive natural climatic drivers to such extremes that climatic thresholds could come about.
These natural climatic drivers being the following:
1. Global cloudiness via galactic cosmic rays tied into the solar wind strength.
2. Atmospheric circulation patters via ozone changes tied into changes in EUV light.
3. Sea surface temperatures via changes in UV light.
4. Volcanic Activity via changes in muons which are tied into galactic cosmic ray intensities.
5. ENSO -tied into overall solar conditions. La Nina I think might occur if a prolonged minimum solar condition came about.
6. Increase in sea ice and global snow cover due to atmospheric changes and lower global temperatures from all of the above.
ALBEDO – this would change if global cloudiness increased along with ice and snow cover which if it only increased by a mere 1% would impact the temperatures of the earth.
Weakening Earth Magnetic Field would compound solar effects and the field is weakening at a fairly rapid clip.