Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Paris, France recently suffered severe flooding. Naturally Climate Scientists have blamed the May 2016 Paris floods on Climate, though it was admitted the floods fell well short of the Great Flood of 1910.
Flooding began first on smaller rivers including the Yvette and Loing — south of Paris (Figure 1). The Loing River, a tributary of the Seine, rose to levels not seen since 1982 but still short of the catastrophic January 1910 Paris floods when the Seine reached 8.0 meters (26.2 feet). The Seine – which runs directly through the heart of Paris – peaked at 6.1 meters (20 feet ) above its normal height during the night of June 3rd — a 34-year high. Farther south, in the heart of the Loire basin, tributaries of the Loire River, including the Retreve and the Sauldre Rivers, reached 50-year highs between May 31st and June 1st, flooding highways and the historic 16th-century Chambord castle. The timing of this flood was quite unusual as virtually all previous floods along the Seine and Loire River basins have occurred during winter (as opposed to spring) due to buildup of excess water over several months during the winter. Only two instances in the historical record — July 1659 and June 1856 — show flooding in months other than December, January, February or March. Clearly, this event appears to be a combination of a very wet month of May in general, coupled with very high 3-day rainfall totals in particular. Managing resulting flood risk is particularly challenging at this time of year because many reservoirs are already close to full to prepare for a typically dry summer season.
This year’s May rainfall amounts were exceptional at some stations in France (see Figure 2). The Paris-Montsouris station, recording 179 mm (7 inches), received roughly 3 months worth of rain in one month. The previous record of 133 mm (5.2 inches) was set in 1992. Orleans saw 181 mm (7.1 inches), also about 3 months of precipitation in one month. The old record was 148 mm (5.8 inches) set back in 1985.
Read more: https://wwa.climatecentral.org/analyses/european-rainstorms-may-2016/
What is the history of flooding in Paris? Information on floods is a little difficult to find, perhaps because I don’t speak French, but the following from a critical OECD report on Parisian flood risk preparedness is revealing;
While the possibility of a major flood of the Seine River may initially seem remote, it comes back regularly and arouses public attention as was the case during the spring of 2013 when floods took place upstream of the Seine River basin. Even though the flooding did not cause any major damage, it reopened the question of risk management and the region’s vulnerability to flooding. The prospect of a historic event is a key concern for French risk management stakeholders. The 1910 flood was particularly destructive in the context of an era marked by industrial and technological progress. Such events illustrate the difficulties societies have in compromising between economic development and the management of increased vulnerability of society and multiple economic sectors.
1924 and 1955 also saw major flood events in the Paris region and in the entire Seine basin. Nevertheless, the lack of a significant flood for more than 60 years tends to lessen the memory of risk. Seine floods are characterised by their slow progression and, following on a period of submersion which may be very long. For instance, the waters took almost two months to subside in 1910. Even if the effect of climate change on the frequency and extent of the Seine floods is still uncertain, greater floods than the one of 1910 are still possible, such as the one that occurred in 1658. In other countries, many recent floods significantly exceeded the 100-year levels. This was the case with the floods in Queensland, Bangkok, and Pakistan; as well as during the coastal flooding following hurricane Sandy in New-York, and the 2013 floods in Germany. The EU Floods Directive uses the 1000-year frequency as a reference for extreme events.
Read more: https://www.oecd.org/gov/risk/Flood-risk-management-seine-river-executive-summary.pdf
On the basis of the OECD report, the claim that the 2016 flood was climate related seems a little thin. Not only was the 2016 flood significantly less severe than a comparable flood which occurred in 1910, the 2016 flood occurred after a 60 year absence of major Paris floods, after major floods in 1910, 1924 and 1955.
There does not appear to be any evidence which supports the theory that climate is somehow exacerbating the frequency or severity of flooding in Paris.
UPDATE: They say a picture says a thousand words, this one not only does that, but speaks with authority. Thanks to Josh for the image, originally sourced from the BBC here. – Anthony
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Good to know that climate was not a factor in 1910. Oh wait…
Wait for it. .. “But…. but…. but… can’t you ‘feel’ it?”..
The graph clearly proves that climate change has been reducing extreme rainfall in Paris.
There can be no doubt that within mere decades Paris will become a barren desert devoid of life.
[note – you aren’t David Suzuki, suggest you choose another screen name -mod]
Well if flooding is caused by weather, you could have a valid reason for not predicting it to happen and cause flooding.
BUT ! if in fact it is NOT weather, but CLIMATE that caused the flooding, then YOU are at fault, because you have had 30 years to get ready for CLIMATE flooding, and you did nothing to prepare to handle all that deluge.
So blame it on the frog authorities.
G
In your precedented/unprecedented analysis, don’t forget the very significant work to create buffer zone upstream to avoid 1910 events.
Saying level of the Seine is not unprecedented doesn’t prove anything. (I am not claiming that the amount of rain is unprecedented.)
But the correct metric for “climate” is rain over the bassin, not Seine level.
From the OECD report;
Since 1910, the risk of a Seine River flood in the Ile-de-France region has been reduced in various stages by protective structures, including dams built upstream and river development starting in the 1920s, then in the 1950s up until the early 1990s.Major investments have been limited in the last decades, and it appears that protection levels are not up to the standards of many other comparable OECD countries, particularly in Europe.
River dredging has been discouraged for over a decade by EU directives. Poor river management and lack of funding suggest any protective measures were probably in a bad state of repair.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/12/28/british-officials-blame-climate-change-for-floods/
“River dredging has been discouraged for over a decade by EU directives.”
http://www.sudouest.fr/2016/06/06/sainte-florence-33-le-maire-avait-fait-curer-un-fosse-sans-autorisation-sa-peine-confirmee-en-cassation-2390145-2966.php
With the help of Google Translate:
The cour de cassation confirmed his condamnation, so now it’s final:
– fine of 1,500 €
– compensation of 5,000 € to “Sepanso” (fédération des sociétés pour l’étude, la protection et l’aménagement de la nature dans le Sud-Ouest)
I haven’t looked up the fine details.
Simple, who knows if
EU responsibles are criminals or just plain soziopaths.
Hostages of the global green anarcho criminal putschist conspiracy .
[ mod, makes me smile – conspyracy.but what ya think is a RICO act deaeling with. Regards – Hans ]
“who knows if EU responsibles are criminals or just plain soziopaths.”
No reason it can’t be both, Johann.
My first thought was has the French version of our EA (environment agency) followed the rules of the EU or have they done what the French often do which is do their own thing whilst saying we’re following the rules.
So like the Somerset Levels in the UK the people of Paris suffer for the sake of saving the world.
James Bull
“My first thought was has the French version of our EA (environment agency) followed the rules of the EU”
When it comes to ecoloonacies, France authorities don’t just follow the Europe rules, they make up additional costly rules, to kill our agriculture and industry. It’s like a suicide pact between the ecoloonatic Keynesian and closet socialist “right” (“Les Républicains”), the officially socialist party and the green party (“EELV” = “Europe Écologie – Les Verts”).
“or have they done what the French often do which is do their own thing whilst saying we’re following the rules”
Only for
– the free market access rules:
– the State helps our almost financially broke national railway company
– the freedom of choice of the social security insurance (health, etc.) except family benefits, which is the rule in Europe, except where a “legal” regime exists (like the NHS); the French State serving medias (we called these “merdias”) are on full propaganda mode regarding the legality of quitting the (broke) “social security”; even the European Commission is helping with this propaganda;
– the GMO access rules, allowed herbicides, etc.
France was very advanced in term of GMO seed research. Now there is nothing, the “faucheurs volontaires” can destroy not GMO tests but also any herbicide resistant tests, these thugs are backed-up by members of the government.
Unlike Russia, no French journalists have been killed recently. (Possibly because no French journalist has annoyed the Power.)
Even the “conservative” medias are only opposed to the “gender” and “mariage for everybody”, not to anti-economy measures. There is no Republican party in France, no Conservative party, no UKIP for France party.
The OP is not trying to “prove” anything, the OP states that there is no evidence that this is related to CO2 attribution.
“Climate change” “unprecedented” rains would not be localised to Paris, it’s a junk claim.
The only thing proven here is there is no proof of anything, let alone “Climate change”.
Again, this is weather not climate, but the alarmists love weather now, seeing as “climate” is not doing what they claims it would do.
““Climate change” “unprecedented” rains would not be localised to Paris, it’s a junk claim.”
What? Who said anything about rain just over Paris?
The issue is the amount of rain upstream, not over Paris.
“The rain mainly falls on the plains of Spain.”
Or rather, “The rain in Spain stays mainly in the plain!”
The problem in france has a bloody great volcano field in the middle of the country. It feeds the vast majority of the rivers in france including the 5 that flow into the town in which I live. We flooded 20 yrs ago. Many weirs have been built to slow the flow by widening the river to downward flow. It still overflows every year. This is what happened to rivers flowing into paris. Only a simpleton would believe that this current flood had anything to do with global warming. Anyone who lives here will tell the same story. Its cyclical ! T’es Fou que tu penserais autrement.
We have had devasting frosts, massive hailstones, hurricane force winds, 7 metre tidal floods, devastated forests and frozen rivers all spread over the past 100 yrs. Some as recent as last 5yrs some as long ago as 1956, 1963 and, of course, 1910.
Yes, but all the recent ones are caused by GW/AGW/CAGW/CC/CCC.
Mjw
Indubitably!
/SARC of course . . . .
Auto
Not just rain in the immediate period of the flooding. Serious floods often occur with a precondition of saturated ground conditions. If Paris is on a plain this will always be a risk and also can be aggravated by heavy clay soils which allow rapid surface run off.
Sometimes (often?), reservoir management aggravates these situations.
simple-touriste
June 11, 2016 at 1:54 am
I got that wrong. !!! Sorry. I thought bordeaux had let him off.
http://www.ouest-france.fr/meteo/inondation/pourquoi-la-crue-de-la-seine-t-elle-ete-sous-estimee-4275496
With the help of Google Translate and (very few) corrections: (did Google change something recently?)
That last sentence should be translated :
… it was he who … monitors the water level … even if it’s “a bit less reliable” than the boxes. [ automated electronic level sensors ]
Strange how, having found that the automatic system was totally unreliable and seems to have become blocked, they were replaced with a human observer who was “less reliable”.
Clearly the human observer was MORE reliable , that’s why he was there !
Next time they have flood conditions upstream, I imagine they will also dispatch a human observer to provide data ” a bit more reliable” than an automated electronic box.
“We only have one station in Paris since measures in another place of the Seine would not present a big difference. ”
Maybe they will now discover the importance of redundancy in monitoring critical parameters like flooding of the nation’s capital
“Maybe they will now discover the importance of redundancy”
Just maybe… they have an excuse: they didn’t know that the river could carry filth capable of blocking the measurement devices…
Nothing you have found here, badly translated, explain the reason for the flood only the reason for not seeing it earlier. The same thing happened in dec 99 when a secondary depression arrived at finistere without being seen. Another perturbation a week later was seen and came in over Bordeaux raising sea level some 7 metres above average and destroying electricity pylons across central france. We have sensors at risky points along all rivers but minor floods, which occur frequently, can drag large trees and heavy objects down river damaging or moving sensors as they pass.
“Nothing you have found here, badly translated, explain the reason for the flood only the reason for not seeing it earlier.”
Indeed, it’s just one of the cause of the lack of preparation we have seen in Paris, will the Louvre moving its collection in panic mode. (The medias are extremely quiet about that.)
And I am sorry for the poor translation.
it’s a pattern
it used to work
now it works the other way around
credibility lost
Possibly less to do with rainfall volume, and more likely a direct function of the city’s expansion upstream along both the Seine and its tributary Marne.
Much of the flooding in the Mississippi basin is exacerbated (if not caused) by over development in floodplains and over engineering of the river at various points. I read an analysis recently that stated that the Mississippi is now more of a managed waterway than a natural river, and that it is almost unrecognizable as the river surveyed in the 1830s by Robert E. Lee.
I suspect these facts are true for many river systems in developed countries. Some engineering may be needed to counteract things like silting, and we cannot ignore the importance of river transport and usage. However, if we REALLY want to minimize flood damage and danger, the best thing to do is NOT BUILD IN A FLOODPLAIN.
Gee Ally, don’t you know you are using logic?
So it’s a city that sees large flooding every so often, and still can’t manage it. That’s the only lesson to be learned here, bit like the UK floods, no action taken since last floods
Except governments can now easily spin any such weather events as climate change thus deferring
at least some of the responsibility for their lack of investment.
Indeed. Thus we now have public resources going towards climate-modelling ejits projecting doom, instead of going towards engineers who were already trying to fix known problems before they occurred again.
What is the Dutch flag doing in an an article on France?
Well spotted, probably a freudian slip, part of Eric Worrel’s obsession with windmills 😉
Easy. Paris was knocked sideways by the flood. So it is really a French flag lying down.
The flag of Holland the President Hollande flag:
http://media.rtl.fr/cache/2bkdBLMJlPFz1sbj0xVfuA/795v530-0/online/image/2012/0608/7749239975_le-depute-ump-de-gironde-jean-paul-garraud-a-demande-mercredi-que-le-portrait-officiel-du-president-de-la-republique-francois-hollande-soit-refait.jpg
Its th french flag deigned to match the EU crap. They have to be the same dimensions which make the french flag elongated.
For information, the french flag has vertical stripes : blue of the left ; red on the right. (Typical french perversity like the male organ being grammatically feminine : la que, la bite; and the female mammaries are masculine : le sein, le nichon. )
The French and Dutch Flags have the same color scheme: Red, White, and Blue. The flag of the Kingdom of the Netherlands (in English: “Dutch”) is divided into thirds horizontally. The topmost is red, the middle is white and the bottom is blue. The flag of the French Republic is divided into thirds vertically, the left most is blue, the center is white, and the right side is red. It is probably too late for them to hire graphics consultants and rebrand to be distinctive, attractive, and easily recognizable.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tricolour_%28flag%29
Squirrel!
That means that the flooding was the worst since 1982 !
Who is Eric Worrel’s title supposed to be referring to making the false claim that it was the worst “since 1910” ?
I have not seen anyone claiming worst since 1910, not even the alarmist Guardian. So what is this about.
Make exaggerated claims about claims being exaggerated and then prove them wrong ? WUWT?
Reblogged this on Climatism and commented:
Everything is blamed on “Climate Change”.
However as science great Karl Popper noted: ‘A theory that explains everything, explains nothing’
Here’s a (nearly) complete list of things supposedly caused by “Global Warming” aka Climate Change”:
http://www.whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/globalwarming2.html
Ergo Popper, “Climate Change” is an ideology or a religion, not a science.
So who , if anyone , was actually making such a claim. Why debunk the idea unless some alarmist is making it?
“So who , if anyone , was actually making such a claim.”
Do I really need to post quotes? I have got plenty, but they are in French, and I am not willing to make any effort to translate 100% guaranteed fact free quotes. No way!
We have had some places here with over 100 mm rain in one day. Even the best defences are not capable to keep such floods in place. Thus lots of places under water.
Lucky for us the Belgian KMI (Royal Meteorological Institute) with Luc Debontridder officially declared that the extreme rainfall had nothing to do with climate change, but the result of being sandwiched between two high pressure fields which made that rainclouds were stalled over our country and didn’t move away. Exceptional, but not uncommon…
Have met Luc Debontridder some months ago during a discussion between skeptics and “luke-warmers”, where he was quite realistic for a “warmer”, as most in the KMI are (but normally not too openly as in this case…).
100 mm is about 3.93 inches. A tropical cyclone can dump more rain than that in under 12 hours. For example, in 1999 I lived through Hurricane Floyd. Where I lived, it rained 15.5 inches, or slightly under 400 mm, overnight. I talked to several people who woke up the next morning and they had water rushing into their homes, and only had time to get out. Of course, that water goes downstream and collects with other streams. People downstream had warning, but the flooding was higher. (Interestingly, 1998 was a strong El Nino year and 1999 was a La Nina year, just like 2015 was a strong El Nino year and it looks like 2016 will be a La Nina year.)
People need to realize that extreme events have happened many times and will continue to happen many times. There is nothing unusual about it. Alarmists are all too happy to call every extreme CAGW. It exploits a common human trait: our memory of the past is incomplete and we tend to remember it as better than it really was. Alarmist won’t remind you about the past because the past disproves them.
I live in the middle of the Canadian prairie, semi arid for the most part. I have seen several spring floods caused by heavy winter snow accumulation and rapid melting with saturated soil. Additionally, we get some wet springs with rain and little sunshine and warmth. Once we’re through that, summer brings daytime heating and intense storm systems. 13″, 9″, of rain over 24 hrs. or 6″ overnight with associated flooding in a fairly “dry” part of the world. Even deserts get heavy rain sometimes. Is there anywhere on earth other than polar regions that don’t?
Dams are usually built for water storage, not flood control. Real flood control requires that the upstream reservoirs be built close to what they protect and kept fairly empty. Even then, regional and even fairly local weather systems, sometimes following one on another, can provide an amount of rain that even substantial reservoirs can’t handle.
alex,
Fortunately we don’t live in a (tropical) cyclone area, so that amount of rain is quite seldom here, be it not uncommon. Several decades ago there was a “train” of clouds in a narrow strip of maybe 50 km wide that rained out all day, dumping over 130 mm rain where I live and beyond.
We had no trouble, but there was a small brook one km from us which widened from a few meters to over 300 meters wide… In one of the houses there the water did enter through the front door and left via the back door, the remains only good for the slope…
The problem is how to manage that: an event of once in 10 years, once in 100, once in a 1,000 years? Unadequate urbanisation (even in floodplains) made it worse to get it managed…
Try 4 inches in an hour. I’ve seen that here in Texas a few times.
Meanwhile the French are far more preoccupied with massive unemployment, endless strikes (trains, airlines, refuge collectors), political scandal after scandal. By comparison the brief floods were a mere distraction. The European soccer tournament may distract for a while but bitter reality won’t go away.
Lately the issue for (some) unlucky Parisians has been:
– how do we get rid of the garbage?
– how do we get rid of the rats?
Hope the floods are high and fast enough to get all the politicians?
Or were you referring to the four footed variety of rodent ?
Lately the issue for (some) unlucky Parisians has been:
– how do we get rid of the garbage?
– how do we get rid of the rats?
Follow Les anglais.
FREXIT!!!
Leo Smith
June 11, 2016 at 3:33 am
We had an EU referendum. Voted NO; President said vous êtes les fous je vote OUI. Je gagne car je suis le president.
It is not distracting in a nice way !!
“Violence, security fears, garbage piles taint Euro Cup in France”
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/06/11/violence-security-fears-garbage-piles-taint-euro-cup-in-france.html?intcmp=hpbt4
The greatest issues are the strikes of train drivers and the protesters blocking the road (as usual).
In Paris, the RER C line is now dry and reopened, but there is still the strike issue.
The strikes in refineries and people blocking the fuel reserves have been an issue.
The strikes in the nuclear plants really weren’t a thing.
Sometimes I think that we ought to rewrite the rules of the road to say that while actual moving pedestrians have the right of way (in crosswalks, etc.), protestors clogging the road are fair game. Then my sense of morality rears its head.
Seriously, I am sick of hearing about inconsiderate jerks making scenes in roadways and inconveniencing/endangering innocent people. I recently saw a small march on Constitution Avenue (in D.C.) midday on a Friday, but they were mostly walking in the parking lane or on the sidewalk, and seemed to be getting out of the way of cars. I wanted to get out of my car and applaud.
[snip way off topic, politics, not related to flooding-mod]
[snip way off topic, politics, not related to flooding-mod]
(repost, edited)
The “nuit debout” (standing night) is an Indignados/Occupy movement in Place de la République in Paris. They claim to write a new Constitution with popular votes. They officially don’t encourage destruction but they made a “citizen garden” by removing the pavement. And many of them applaud destructions.
When a French author/philosopher/academician Alain Finkielkraut went to “nuit debout” to see by himself what was going on (not trying to intervene in any way), he was ignored at first (probably because nobody noticed him or recognize him) but after some time things got ugly for a inclusive, tolerant movement: he was insulted, and a misdirected spit arrived on a cameraman. Alain Finkielkraut was then “escorted” by the security service of “nuit debout”.
But it’s fine because Alain Finkielkraut is very backward and loves the past! See, he believes there is a lot of crap on the Internet (like, hum, anyone who has ever used the Internet and seen that crap), he says that the Internet can only be useful to people once they have mastered fundamental knowledge and have some culture, and he says teaching should be “traditional” and not use computers in “école primaire” when children learn how to read, write, basic operations (which is strangely close to what the über-progressist, futurist, Internet-praising Californian 21th Century technology entrepreneurs want for their children).
Anyway Alain Finkielkraut criticizes the Internet (he probably didn’t make the most valuable critic of the content accessible via Internet), he doesn’t praise Internet connected schools, he doesn’t applaud when a financially broke Département offers every school children an iPad or some laptop (many of these are sold as many children are already equipped)… he is sooooo old school! So he must be an oppressor or something. He is backing up the international finance, the banks, etc. … well, probably. He can be expelled!
The way Alain Finkielkraut was expelled (with obvious threats of violence) did create a small “emotion” in the fine circles of the “commentateurs autorisés” and the leftist intelligentsia. Many tried to minimize the significance of the event as he wasn’t actually molested. (As if you need to go to the hospital to have a reason to complain about thugs.) But the fact that “nuit debout” has in effect privatized the Place de la République doesn’t seem to bother anyone on the left.
(Note: to be clear, I don’t believe Alain Finkielkraut is a great philosopher; his analysis is too often ridiculously superficial and he too often talk about on things he doesn’t quite understand. The Internet being one of these things.)
As usual, the way people on the side of “nuit debout” were willing to blame the victim, with a childish (and inconsistent) binary worldview, is embarrassing.
Recently, we have had “les gens du voyages” (non sedentary people) blocking a highway because Justice wouldn’t allow one who was in prison to attend the burial of one who was killed when a run away after committing a crime.
Guess what?
Justice finally allowed him to attend the burial.
And this isn’t a single event. People are afraid it will become a pattern.
simple-touriste June 11, 2016 at 8:51 pm
[snip way off topic, politics, not related to flooding-mod]
Yet you allow “AllyKat June 11, 2016 at 8:58 am” to stay, which isn’t at all flooding related.
Make an effort, try to be consistent.
Flooding in Hanoi a few weeks ago. Blamed fair & square on poor drainage in the city. Not a peep about climate change in the local (English language) media.
Flooding is ALWAYS poor drainage and building where you shouldn’t.
Flashfloods?
Flashflood usually occurs in the South of France.
Vaison la Romaine is a name known by everybody in France since 1992: Tuesday, the 22th of September, the area received an exceptional amount of rain:
• Vaison centre : 179 mm
• Entrechaux : 300 mm
• Malaucène : 215 mm
• Mollans : 240 mm
• Buis-les-Baronnies : 143 mm
source: http://www.vaison-la-romaine.com/IMG/pdf/11-crue_de_1992.pdf
Flood hydrograph:
http://www.persee.fr/renderPage/morfo_1266-5304_1997_num_3_2_909/0/710/morfo_1266-5304_1997_num_3_2_T1_0124_0000.jpg
(cont)
http://www.meteo-paris.com/site/images/vaison_la-romaine_sept_92_22_sept_14_01.png
turning small river into a torrent
http://www.meteo-paris.com/site/images/vaison_la-romaine_sept_92_22_sept_14_02.jpg
46 people died.
(cont)
Destruction of the bridges and buildings (with people watching, absolutely crazy footage):
Sources on Vaison La Romaine:
http://www.persee.fr/doc/morfo_1266-5304_1997_num_3_2_909
http://www.meteo-paris.com/actualites/catastrophe-de-vaison-la-romaine-le-22-septembre-1992-22-septembre-2015.html
More recently in the Côte d’Azur:
October 2015: 180 mm of rain over Cannes; 8 people died in Mandelieu-la-Napoule (probably while trying to move their cars).
Total: 20 people died.
climatecentral:
The extreme nature of this event left many asking whether climate change may have played a role.
THE EVENT –
conducted independent assessments using multiple peer-reviewed approaches. These approaches involve statistical analyses of the historical temperature record, the trend in a global climate models, regional climate models, and the results of thousands of simulations of possible weather with a regional climate model. Applying multiple methods provides scientists with a means to assess confidence in the results.
_______________________
the event shows strong correlation heavy weather / excessive computer modeling.
Bad for people in the real world, a goldrush for virtual climatology.
I too have done some computer modelling .
It shows with irrefutable proof, that the more money spent on climate modelling, the more climate change gets blamed for bad weather.
I therefore suggest as an urgent method of stopping bad weather, we de-fund all climate modelling.
I did as study too. IT showed that drawn cricket matches were a major cause of rain, so test matches will now go on for seven days instead to make sure the summer is sunny.
I’ll go one step further. When I was a kid, we used to have five minutes of weather each day, usually wedged between the news and the sports.Now,, we have like 24 hours of weather a day.
I blame climate change.
If current trends continue, in a few decades we will have 96 hours of weather per day, and it will be a disaster. Can you imagine? We will have tornadoes and blizzards on the same day.
That’s what my computer models suggest anyway.
As every major climate scientist has said, “I know we can’t blame any particular weather event on one storm, but, come on {eyeroll} look at the size of that flood.”
We havemweathermall day long wheremImlive…
And I am getting tired of it.
The Seine in Paris never even reached the level of the 1982, 1955 or 1924 floods.
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/06/04/paris-floods/
Le pont de l’Alma changed in 1974.
Original:
Post 1974:
http://www.parisinfo.com/var/otcp/sites/images/node_43/node_51/node_77884/node_77889/pont-de-l'alma-zouave-%7C-630×405-%7C-%C2%A9-fotolia-claude-coquilleau/11885398-1-fre-FR/Pont-de-l'Alma-Zouave-%7C-630×405-%7C-%C2%A9-Fotolia-Claude-Coquilleau.jpg
The decorations of the supports of the old bridge were preserved, and moved; only the Zouave was reinstalled on a pile of the new bridge.
The Zouave got higher:
http://www.europe1.fr/societe/au-fait-cest-qui-ce-zouave-du-pont-de-lalma-2762293
The Zouave got higher by tens of centimeters:
http://www.rtl.fr/actu/societe-faits-divers/inondations-le-zouave-du-pont-de-l-alma-un-repere-pour-les-parisiens-depuis-napoleon-iii-7783490461
Summary:
– Europe 1, RTL: Zouave higher
– Le Monde: Zouave lower
So the Zouave is now higher or lower or something.
Just like conservatives are psychos, or the liberals are, or nobody is.
And the future will have less snow, more snow, less rain, more rain, less wind, more wind, or something.
(repost)
No, the Zouave is actually lower:
The flood levels are still marked on the stones of the bridge; Enjoy a break à, Paris. allez voire
@mod
Some of my comments, two attempts at including a quote of journal Le Monde in French, got stuck.
I don’t know what happened, but there is nothing controversial about a quote of Le Monde about the way Le Zouave was installed on the new Pont de l’Alma.
Will the outcome be :
– better preparence in the real world against natures tendency to flood events in the ‘usual aspected areas’ – or just
– some new tales in the climatology doomsday book.
Let’s see politicians reaction – flood resisting infrastructure or waiting for next elections.
To those who think that the Paris floods are unprecedented, this says it all:
&imgrefurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.com%2Fnews%2Fworld-europe-36446635&docid=pi6MgGNFvoP2aM&tbnid=371nN26oNdni-M%3A&w=624&h=673&bih=775&biw=1440&ved=0ahUKEwjtnc6Y25_NAhXItBoKHa_OAWoQMwgfKAEwAQ&iact=mrc&uact=8
Kindly suggest tinyurl.com: “a length of 364 characters…resulted in the following TinyURL which has a length of 26 characters”:
http://tinyurl.com/h6mn9uo
You could also link to the image directly:
http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/624/cpsprodpb/2307/production/_89876980_paris_bridge_flood_levels_624-2.jpg
or to the webpage itself:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36446635
Thanks Dennis and simple-touriste for pointing out my error. One of those mornings I’m afraid, I had to pick my daughter up from the airport was late already, but i thought it was a worthwhile contribution because it makes it crystal clear that AGW is not the cause of the 2016 flooding.
http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/science-papers/originals/extreme-weather-extreme-claims
“The Aztecs had sophisticated irrigation systems and “astrolonomical” observatories, (apparently a mix of astrology and astronomy), to attempt to predict the weather and reservoirs. But the unseasonal frosts and cold, followed by severe, prolonged drought, may have taken them to the brink of collapse. Once the climate became more benign again, they praised their gods with human sacrifice.
“When rainfall and agriculture had resumed, the Aztecs responded by massively increasing the number of human sacrifices to their rain god Tlaloc. It is thought that hundreds of thousands of people were sacrificed.”
In the Little Ice Age, witchcraft was blamed for the devastating climate:
Fagan’s The Little Ice Age (Basic Books, 2000):
“Witchcraft accusations soared, as people accused their neighbors of fabricating bad weather…. Sixty-three women were burned to death as witches in the small town of Wisensteig in Germany in 1563 at a time of intense debate over the authority of God over the weather.”
“Almost invariably, a frenzy of prosecutions coincided with the coldest and most difficult years of the Little Ice Age, when people demanded the eradication of the witches they held responsible for their misfortunes.”
I know, I could have used “tinyurl”.
But I’m glad you didn’t. I like knowing where a link will take me before I click it… and you already avoided all that google redirect stuff and posted a proper link…
Indian astrology basically built on planetary motions — astronomy. They formulated a calendar of 60 year cycle. Each year was given a name. Based on the planetary positionsin that year, on new year day according to this calendar the y present qualtatively the amount of rain expected. Along with it they present the food and type production is expected in that year. This is luni-solar calendar. Chinese had a similar 60-year cycle but it lags behind Indian 60-year cycle. However, it is a lunar based system. They used animal names [12] and 5 [panchabhootas] elements. Some say Budhist monks during their visit to India, they carried the Indian system.
Traditionally kings followed this system in their all activities including starting of wars.
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy
and for a good practical reason: 60 is divisible by 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 10, 12, 15, 20 and 30.
60 is evenly divisible by …
Base 60 goes back to the Sumarians. Old English money was 240d or 4 crowns (60d) in a pound
French EDF lost money big time because of wind and solar (and Areva lost some money with offshore wind), so the ecoloons want to axe nuclear.
Makes sense: it’s a human sacrifice!
Its the bloody socialists who needed green support at the last election. Hollande said he would shut 4 nuclear but his tart wants more and is going to shut “50%” of french nuclear, raise a 30€ carbon floor tax and put 7 million power sockets at the side of the roads. I didn’t realise that stupidity was sexually transmitted until Hollande came on the scene. Oh wrote that wrong. never mind.
Axe ?
A strategy also proned by today’s eco-fascists
I really enjoyed The Little Ice Age, though I rolled my eyes a bit at the AGW stuff. What I took away from the book is that weather and climate are weird, ultimately unpredictable, and see-saw wildly even when there is a general trend.
The book actually reenforced my skepticism, though I doubt that was the author’s intent. Good as a historical text, would have been better without the AGW references. When I read or hear claims that are more “attached” than central to a book, article, or study, I always wonder if the authors are true believers or if they threw in those references in an attempt to seem relevant/get funded/get published, etc.
New study ideas …
(1) Global Warming has reduced the Witch population.
(2) Witches as an inverse proxy for Global Warming.
(3) Witches cause Global Cooling.
… applying for grant monies now.
Some wonders how computers get enhanced to cope with real existing building and infrastructure regulations. On a global model with 100’s of km width grid.
Dream along!
In the tradition of the Azetecs,
perhaps the River Goddess needs to be placated by human sacrifice?
17 October 1961
Once again, the models trump evidence, or even common sense.
The funded-with-your-money idiots have never heard the term, “The map is not the territory” or they are wilfully ignoring it.
Yesterday on German news: climate change blamed for British battle ships being out of service as water intake for cooling is said to be, well, too warm, apparently due to global warming… ffs.
Battleships used to be designed to operate in almost any seas not iced over. Since tropical waters are the hottest we have and haven’t warmed much if at all, we’d have to be talking about battleships confined to the Northern Atlantic, which doesn’t sound like a good idea. That news service does not seem to be onto critical thinking.
Eric Worrall, WUWT – great thread.
Who can ask for more. Hans
Of course, they have not changed the hydrology of the area since 1910 either. Certainly, there were all those areas that were covered with buildings and asphalt back then too.