This week there was lots of noise from the Twittersphere and Blogosphere over this tweet from climate scientist Ed Hawkins which was covered at WUWT: Making Global Warming Scarier
Spiralling global temperatures from 1850-2016 (full animation) https://t.co/YETC5HkmTr pic.twitter.com/Ypci717AHq
— Ed Hawkins (@ed_hawkins) May 9, 2016
It received over 10,000 retweets so far. Eric Worrall wrote then:
Ed Hawkins, a professor at University of Reading, has ditched boring old graphs, and created an animated graphic which attempts to maximise the emotional impact of global warming data.
It’s true, and “spiral” has a special scary connotation since NSIDC’s Mark Serreze coined the phrase “death spiral” for Arctic Sea ice. Unfortunately for him, the ice is still there. Josh saw an opportunity to educate, and has done so splendidly by taking Hawkins own method and combining it with other climate data he did not display.
Josh writes:
Here is the little video I created (using an iPad) to balance out Ed Hawkins very lovely modern global temperature change spirograph. Mine is not nearly as lovely but it does include Roman and Medieval Warming. And the Pause.
I used the graph from Dr. Judith Curry’s presentation (from Hannhijarvi et al ) as a basis for the numbers, but it is only an approximation.
Reference: Hannhijarvi et al, 2013 from https://curryja.files.wordpress.com/2016/05/spe-climate-2016.pdf
Brilliant once again, Josh! It tells the whole story unlike Ed Hawkins’ deceptive work.
Not so scary now that we can see the whole picture, Eh! We can all start to breathe again and expel all that old CO2.
The CO2 I expel is brand spanking new and still warm!
Hoist by his own petard he is.
The (PFP) Mantra
Past – wrong
Future – known
Present – irrelevant
Nice to see the context with the longer time span provided from the Arctic temperature reconstruction.
Would reconstructed temperatures for the Southern Hemisphere spiral in the opposite direction?
+1
Another interesting thing to animate would be the figure-eight around the strange attractors for the chaotic global temperature over the past aeon or two.
That’s excellent Josh. Bookmarked for future reference.
But Josh, you cheated by adding the -1C ring. That’s against the rules. 🙂
That lovely warm weather has died in Helsinki, windy and chilly.
Bring back global warming dammit, Oh Won’t someone please think of the barbecues!
agreed, zero degrees here this morning and the leaves just starting to appear on the trees . been the coolest spring for many a year.
Could anyone provide a link for the data Josh used, cited as ‘Hannhijarvi et al. 2013’? I can’t find any reference to it anywhere, either from Judith Curry’s presentation or via a search engine search (including Google scholar).
It appears, from JC’s comment on the screen, that the data used comes from proxy reconstructions of Arctic temperatures, ending some time in the early 2000s.
This may in part explain the difference between Josh’s cartoon and Hawkins’s chart, which shows annual global surface temperature instrument data (HadCRUT4) and ends at 2015.
Josh
That may be your best ever!!
From the DeSmog UK blog, March 2015 (concerning early colored mapping of temperature anomalies):
““We were just looking decade by decade where there’s been maps of temperatures: 1900, 1910s, 20s, 30s, all the way to the 70s. And if you compare the 70s map to the 1900s map, there isn’t much of a difference,” Mann remembers.
“But once you get to the 1980s, it’s like ‘bam!’ The map turns bright yellow and red. It was in that moment that I actually think that all of us, including Barry I think, crossed over into weighing more on the side that there is a discernible human influence on climate. This is before the IPCC reached that conclusion in 1995 with the publication of the second assessment report.”
In a single moment, Mann abandoned his scepticism about the reality of human-caused climate change. As it happens, he would dedicate the rest of his working life to understanding the true scientific meaning and implications of those red smudges on an early colour printout.”
Pretty colored maps worked on Michael Mann. Why not try pretty colors everywhere?
I must say the graphs look a lot like what the toy “Spirograph” creates—circular patterns. Somehow I’m having problems seeing pretty colors and circular patterns as proof of any scientific theory. But that’s just me.
Great animation, Josh!
Brilliant!
Ii liked Ed Hawkins’ spiral, and I like Josh’s spiral even more. Thank you Josh!
That was ‘Yoda voice’, right?
Reply went to wrong place…sorry.
What you are talking about, I know not.
..President Trump is really gonna [snip] up these liberals minds ..They may actually face ..gasp…REALITY !… Oh, the horror……..
If Trump is the reality… we have a big problem.
And you don’t need to be on the left to dislike Trump. Plenty on the right hate him.
Hawkin’s Web.
“Oh, what a tangled web we weave…when first we practice to deceive.”
― Walter Scott, Marmion
PS Nice one, Josh.
If you did it with absolute temperatures instead of abnormalities you would have almost a perfect circle.
Very clever. Very bloody clever indeed Josh!
I’d like to cite Hannhijarvi 2013 and can’t find it. Does anyone know where it was published?
Could the animation at https://videopress.com/v/JUDO1cWK be reposted please?
I can’t get it to load in any browser.