Our WUWT ENSO meter in the right sidebar has ticked down twice in the last week, and the most important 3-4 region of the Pacific monitored for ENSO conditions looks like it is in freefall:
In their weekly discussion posted Monday, April 6th, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center had this to say:
During the last four weeks, equatorial SST anomalies notably decreased in the central and east-central Pacific, while increasing in the far eastern Pacific.
Karen Braun, Reuters writes this article:
Not only is the atmosphere supporting a faster switch to La Niña, but so is a revised model prediction after an error that massively skewing the results was corrected.
The decay of El Niño and the onset of La Niña, the cold phase of tropical Pacific Ocean surface temperatures, are occurring more rapidly than it would appear.
The timing of La Niña’s arrival is important to commodities markets as La Niña has vastly different effects on global climate than its warm counterpart, El Niño.
For example, in agriculture markets, if La Niña moves in on the early end of the range by June or July, U.S. summer crops could face complications with dry and hot weather. But dry regions of Australia, Southeast Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa could receive ample rainfall prior to the peak of their next crop season.
The lingering of extremely warm waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean has led to some flawed assumptions that El Niño is decaying at a slower pace than in previous years, and that the transition to La Niña will happen later than initially expected.
But the platform for La Niña’s entrance has been in the assembly phase since late last year, and new data suggests that construction is nearly complete.
There are a couple of key atmospheric and oceanic variables that we watch for to signal the switch from El Niño to La Niña, and now more than ever, these variables are pulling the final plugs on El Niño
The cold pool just beneath the surface of the Pacific Ocean continues its rapid expansion, and it has nearly overcome the El Niño warmth on the surface, making remarkable strides in the final three weeks of March
The anomaly lost heat during March at the same rate as in February, and decidedly cool waters now dominate the subsurface Pacific Ocean
A slowdown or reversal in this cooling trend does not seem likely as the atmosphere is becoming increasingly supportive of it. The Southern Oscillation Index, a measure of pressure tendencies over the Pacific Ocean, made a massive leap out of El Niño-favoring territory last month and is now ahead of the pace of similar years 1998 and 2010 (tmsnrt.rs/1TwETSN).
Another key supporting variable, trade winds in the western and central Pacific, no longer favor El Niño though they are not definitively in the La Niña camp, either. But if the SOI continues on its upward trend, the winds might be encouraged to strengthen, moving the Pacific Ocean closer to La Niña (tmsnrt.rs/1N5eMMe).
A graph of sea surface temperature anomalies in the defining Niño 3.4 region suggests that yes, 2016 is decaying at a slower rate than the other years.
But given both the record peak it is coming from and the recent changes in the ocean and atmosphere, it would actually not be surprising to see the transition happen just as quickly as in 1998, if we truly are to enter into a stronger La Niña (tmsnrt.rs/1N5ek0p).
– See more at: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-weather-lanina-braun-idUSKCN0X215F
More graphs and data at the WUWT ENSO Reference Page
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See the question I asked at the end of the previous Post, how are the Satellites going to react to this, that lost heat has gone through the Atmosphere, but the Surface is much cooler.
How will NOAA/GISS handle it as they have been using the SSTs along with non existent Arctic results to bolster their Pause Busting records.
The snarky answer is that they’ll just double-down and find another way to fudge the temperature record. If they can be successful in eliminating all records of what temperature was actually recorded in the past, they can mold the “official” record into whatever they want.
Even a path paived with good intentions still leads no where good. Even in science. (I was going to say especially in science, but I can see that it is never good no matter the circumstance or subject ).
If Karl and Schmidt have obliterated or obscured the original data sets they’ve committed a Federal felony. In the odds-off chance that Cruz is the next President they would both spend from 18 months to 3 years in a Federal facility, as well as lose any Federal retirement benefits. For those reasons, alone, I suspect that original data is around somewhere, it’s just being very well hidden at the present time.
Under capitalism, the past is fixed and the future is wide open. Under communism, the future is fixed; it’s the past that is continually changing.
Yes, I read an article in the local papers a while back, saying that 75% of the additional heat had been absorbed by the deep ocean. Very convenient.
But what concerns me about this kind of article is that, if there is a coincidence between the turning of El Nino/La Nina and a longer multi-decadal cycle, and it actually get suddenly precipitously colder, people will die.
It will be amusing to see the backflips and contortions of the professional scaremongers, but not to see the corpses of the old and infirm.
In more than one year in the UK in the past decade over 20000 people died of cold related deaths, with other years well in excess of 10k. 23000 died a few winters ago in the UK. You can guess the main demographic in that number, old people on pensions who can’t afford to pay for energy. same for sick and disabled people.
So it is already happening, and all these modern buildings have no fireplaces too, so you cant go get some logs yourself
Point of information: Is GISS measuring El Niño by satellite, ARGO buoys, or a combination?
Elbow like my mum did before putting me into boiling water
Ouija board.
Haruspices.
Now there is a weird pinwheel cold patch just out from the tip of the Baja, that looks really odd.
If I am not mistaken, that is the location of Clarion Island, and the other members of the Revilagigedo Island group. (Hope I got the speeling about correct).
That place is a smorgasbord of pelagic fishes, Like Yellowfin tuna and Wahoo.
Probably that colder water is from upwelling around the island bases that brings up the rich nutirents to feed the food chain.
G
The archipelago is named in honor of Count Juan Vicente de Güemes Pacheco de Padilla y Horcasitas, segundo conde de Revillagigedo, last competent Viceroy of New Spain, 1789-94. The highest dome complex on the largest island, Isla Socorro is Mt. Evermann, named for American ichthyologist Barton Warren Evermann.
Volcanic activity there is quite recent, commencing just over 5000 years ago.
My youngest could spell her entire name by the time she was three. I wonder how old this guy was by the time he could do the same.
The island in SE Alaska also named for the 2nd Count is locally called Revilla, pronounced Ruhviluh. The British, Russians, Spanish and Americans were all contesting the Pacific coast from the Russian River in California up to the Russian settlements in Alaska at that time.
Thanx Gloat,
I always wanted to go on one of those long range fishing trips out of San Diego, that go down there to those islands. Wild fishing.
A world record 388 (I think) pound yellowfin was caught on one of those trips. The guy landed the fish in two minutes.
Actually, the fish at4e the live bait he had on his line, then swam under the boat and went on feeding on the school of bait fishes; didn’t even know it was hooked. A deckhand with a gaff snatched the fish and they hauled it out of the water. Just for good measure the same deck hand snatched a 200 + pounder that wasn’t even hooked, just feeding in the melee.
The IGFA still gave the guy the WR for that totally absurd catch.
g
De nada!
The most seasick I’ve ever been was on a smelly diesel boat out of Cabo into those waters.
Fishing around Revilla in Alaska was more fun. The North Pacific south of San Diego is a lot rougher than is commonly known.
Will be interesting to see whether the pause returns by yearend. If it does, the CMIP5 models will be truly busted. Except for Russia’s INM-CM4, which has lower water vapor feedback, lower ocean thermal inertia, is most closely tracking UAH and RSS, and has ECS in agreement with energy budget observational estimates.
ristvan
Highly likely temps will drop meaning there is another pause of sorts. But it will probably be temporary, unless the warming trend reverses and that is highly unlikely.
I wouldn’t sell your coat just yet Simon. See Dr Norman Page (http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/04/07/la-nina-and-a-cooler-earth-may-be-coming-faster-than-predicted/#comment-2184289) below who is not alone in forecasting a few decades of colder temperatures. Then it will not only be the climate modelers that have difficulties, it will be those in energy poverty due to paying ‘green taxes’ aka subsidies to subsidy farmers. Cold is far more dangerous than warm.
Ian W
With all due respect, are you gong to believe this Dr Norman Page’s predictions? If so, please tell me why?
Simon, you say a temperature drop will probably be temporary. How temporary do you think it will likely be? Also, in your estimation, at what point would cooling (or warming, or even a pause) exceed the boundaries of “temporary”?
A.D. Everard
Based on the recent pause/ temp increases, 20 years seems to be the upper limit. But even then putting a fixed time on it is irrelevant (within reason). Long term trend is all that matters and that is clearly up. You can wish for a downward trend, but that is not looking likely at this stage.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_warming#/media/File:Global_Temperature_Anomaly.svg
Simon: ” You can wish for a downward trend, but that is not looking likely at this stage.”
Actually Simon it has already commenced. We are in the negative phase of the`60 year cycle correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.
This will become undeniable even to a true believer like you in the next year or three.
Count on it.
catweazle666
Yes well don’t go selling your bikini any time soon.
Thanks for your answer, Simon. So you are saying that up to 20 years of cooling would count as temporary? So, presumably, 20 years of warming should also be counted as temporary. You do understand that we have natural cycles slightly longer than that that would account for both warming and cooling?
As for “wishing”, I’ve rather enjoyed coming out of the Little Ice Age. I would like it to get warmer. Unfortunately what I am experiencing is colder weather each year with more ice and more snow.
What warming trend?
Thanks for that reference to the Russian model.
I did a search the other day when someone mentioned a “Russian model”, but the search results brought up Russian models I wasn’t expecting, and I got distracted.
The “INM-CM4” helped me refine my search. 🙂
What goes up, must come down. Especially on a self-regulating water planet.
Ultimately, the yellow H-burning star we orbit and our varying distance and obliquity to it are what really matters (given our current land mass arrangement, which takes about 5-10 million years to change appreciably).
Trenchant, as always.
Yes. There was no massive glaciation in the Mesozoic, when the cosmological cycle should have produced one, because of the continental arrangement. Neoproterozoic, Paleozoic and Cenozoic ice ages however, were right on cue.
Interesting is the long Paleoproterozoic Gap between the Huronian and Marinoan Snowball Earth episodes. The missing ice ages are almost certainly cosmological in absence causation.
Here is my latest forecast from
http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-imminent-collapse-of-cagw-delusion.html
“3.3 Current Trends
The cooling trend from the millennial peak at 2003 is illustrated in blue in Fig 5. From 2015 on,the decadal cooling trend is obscured by the current El Nino. The El Nino peaked in March 2016. Thereafter during 2017 – 2019 we might reasonably expect a cooling at least as great as that seen during the 1998 El Nino decline in Fig 5 – about 0.9 C
It is worth noting that the increase in the neutron count in 2007 seen in Fig 8 indicated a possible solar regime change which might produce an unexpectedly sharp decline in RSS temperatures 12 years later – 2019 +/- to levels significantly below the blue trend line in Fig 5.”
In addition I would note the unusually strong NGRIP flux count at about 1815 in Fig 5 at
https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1004/1004.2675.pdf
This would suggest a possible Dalton/ De Vries minimum at about 2020 -2025 ( 210 year periodicity )
These are my forecast:
2016
This year global cooling
2030
My Global Temperature Forecast: central estimate of cooling around 0.35C by 2030 years
Like almost everyone else you continue to ignore the obvious millennial cycle which peaked about 2003. See Fig 1 and the post and forecasts at
ttp://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2016/03/the-imminent-collapse-of-cagw-delusion.html
” 3.1 Long Term .
I am a firm believer in the value of Ockham’s razor thus the simplest working hypothesis based on the weight of all the data is that the millennial temperature cycle peaked at about 2003 and that the general trends from 990 – 2003 seen in Fig 4 will repeat from 2003-3016 with the depths of the next LIA at about 2640.
3.2 Medium Term.
Looking at the shorter 60+/- year wavelengths the simplest hypothesis is that the cooling trend from 2003 forward will simply be a mirror image of the rising trend. This is illustrated by the green curve in Fig,1.which shows cooling until 2038 ,slight warming to 2073, then cooling to the end of the century.
3.3 Current Trends
The cooling trend from the millennial peak at 2003 is illustrated in blue in Fig 5. From 2015 on,the decadal cooling trend is obscured by the current El Nino. The El Nino peaked in March 2016. Thereafter during 2017 – 2019 we might reasonably expect a cooling at least as great as that seen during the 1998 El Nino decline in Fig 5 – about 0.9 C
It is worth noting that the increase in the neutron count in 2007 seen in Fig 8 indicated a possible solar regime change which might produce an unexpectedly sharp decline in RSS temperatures 12 years later – 2019 +/- to levels significantly below the blue trend line in Fig 5.”
The famous north Pacific Blob appears to have reversed completely and is now a cold Blob. With the El Niño fading fast we expect UAH drop sharply anyway. The combined effect of the two, and the UAH change should be quite dramatic. A month ago, I did not think that the temp could plausibly drop fast enough to reestablish the Pause any time soon. Now it looks entirely possible.
That should be good for California. We can get back to our normal drought condition, so they can get to work on tearing down some of the surplus river dams we have.
Don’t need to dam a river unless it has water in it, so we can get rid of some of those anti-eco monstrosities, and replace them with green bird grinders, or working bird evaporators.
g
I agree. I have thought for a while now that a strong La Nina, a PDO reversal and a blob cooling, and a cooling AMO, if syncronised would likely reverse all warming since 1979.
Stand by for the Alarmists to proclaim the sudden onset of La Niña is further ‘proof’ of climate disruption brought on by Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming.
Looks to me like a normal transition from El Niño to La Niña. Neither faster nor slower, neither more intense nor less intense, than previous transitions from strong El Niño events.
We probably won’t have any more record warm years until the next strong El Niño that could take 5-10 years to come. 2016 should still be warm due to an exceptionally warm winter, but 2017 and 2018 should be colder than running decadal average if a strong La Niña develops. If a significant warming does not return by 2019 the models are going to look really, really bad. The people that make them know this so I expect that CIMP6 will show less warming prediction than CIMP5, otherwise we might well be outside the 95% confidence range.
OK, predictions are dangerous but here goes : One climate model will be tweaked to show short term cooling. The warmists will then claim that temperatures have stayed within the model range, and that the model average is still an upwards 2 deg C per century.
Probably, could, expect, should, if, might, would etc. are words we expect from believers in warming. Please don’t use them, otherwise it shows our ignorance of the future.
…Ontario, Canada is STILL waiting for Spring !! It’s only a month late !!…AAARRRGGGG !
Warmer start to winter and cold end to winter. amazing how it all balance’s out. Montreal apparently it only warms up by the middle of next week, no golf until end of April LOL.
You’re in a different geographical position to have noticed any man made global warming, this is due to satellites monitoring earths geographical equator where there is no seasonal change, therefore if the equator warms (even for a second) all evidence points to that man made the climate change done it (if you call variability that), if the colder polar regions that are not warming at a rate similar to what its seasonal temperatures are usually considered to be normal in the (made up) past, then the focus must change to the equator where there are no seasons.
In satellite data that no one has mentioned yet, there is a greater difference in this latest ENSO spike between polar cold and equatorial “warmth”, solar driven of course, having a colder background is making this El Niño stand out somewhat… think about this!!
Still where is La Niña going to take us? back to man made global warming levels? laughable and insulting, so try and enjoy your polar man made global warming at such harsh freezing temperatures while you can, some day we may have the ability to keep you and yours warm through harsh cold nights without driving you into poverty.
😉
Or living in that part of the world you could maybe learn how to build igloos and cover yourself and family in seal fat to save the planet.
It snowed three times this week in upstate NY and barely gets above freezing on the ‘warm’ days.
Well, we went from double Nino 1913-15 (second half was a whopper) to double La Nina (whopper) in 1916-18. And we didn’t even get a lousy T-shirt.
We need to stop fretting and just live. At least for as long as this clement little Holocene lasts and the next Laki or Tambora holds off. Let’s wait for a real problem before we chew down to the knuckle and wet the bed.
As an engineer rather than an expert on ENSO, I noted a few months ago that the volume of significantly warm water from surface to 100m didn’t seem enough to sustain an El Nino for too long. I asked the question of Bob Tisdale if anyone calculates what energy there is for release from these things. I don’t know if I got an answer. I may have not gone back to the thread to see it. If Bob is reading this, perhaps he may have an answer. If not, it seems to me that it isn’t necessary to guess – you have so many cubic km of anomalously warm water down to 150km. If this is rising to the surface with cooling one should be able to calculate how long it could last before it peters out. I suspected it many weeks ago and NOAA was taken by surprise!! What does this tell you about the quality of science being practiced? If someone want to take this on, there is excellent data to work with and several El Ninos whose water temperatures, progressions and the time they lasted.
The MEI captures some of your observations. Unfortunately this indices does not include the depth of the thermocline, which by itself can help us determine how much energy is left. The caveat is that wind strength (or lack thereof) can also determine the depth of the thermocline across the equatorial Pacific.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/
In spring 2014, the El Niño camp was shouting about what was about to happen, but it didn’t materialize until the atmosphere supported it in 2015. Let’s not make the same mistake. When the central Pacific easterlies strengthen we can be assured that the La Niña is coming. Until then we are waiting.
That said, the easterlies look to me to be in a transition. Certainly the NH easterlies are strong. If the SH comes around, then the goose is cooked. Perhaps when the cool subsurface water emerges the atmosphere will respond.
Have a look, the south-west Pacific basin trade flow kicked in from about the second week of March:
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-173.63,-17.43,536
We’re currently getting much cooler less humid air into NE Australia, since then, and Summers heat and humidity has faded-off around 4 to 5 weeks earlier than ‘normal’, and the central coral sea area’s SST rose sharply since the beginning of March.
If it quacks like a duck …
Perhaps in Australia, but the central Pacific isn’t there…yet. Still a broad area of unsettled conditions (currently with westerlies blowing from the Solomon’s toward the ITCZ in the central Pacific). Also, the SOI hasn’t yet seen a solid block of positives.
Yes, but look at the projection 5 days ahead of now, the easterlies are even more established in the central pacific than this week, and the low centers typical of El Ninos have all dissipated.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#2016/04/12/1200Z/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-173.63,-17.43,325
Now go back to the 21stof Feb and step it forward in 1 week increment to 5 days ahead of now, and you can see the pattern begins to change shortly after Cyclone Winston loses its rotation identity off the north QLD coast.
Then do the same with SST and you can clearly see the thermal anomaly is propagating westwards and the trades and current begins to come back with it (chicken or egg?).
Forgot to emphasize, that Anthony is correct, the change is happening surprisingly fast.
It’s been over 5 days now. Still have westerlies. Still a broad area of unsettled weather in the central Pacific. 30-day SOI is falling and is back in El Niño territory. Conclusion: not so fast. The La Niña will come, but let’s not get carried away.
The drop in Nino 3.4 and in top 300 m warm water content appears to be similar or slightly slower than that of 1997-1998 and 1982-1983. Thus, there is nothing spectacular with the decay of the present el Nino compared to the recent strong ones. It follows the plan more or less..
This is what happens when a quiet sun increases global cloudiness so as to reduce the amount of solar energy entering the oceans. The reduced rate of recharge will gradually reduce the intensity of El Ninos relative to La Ninas and lead to a cooling world.
Mechanism here:
http://joannenova.com.au/2015/01/is-the-sun-driving-ozone-and-changing-the-climate/
Earl happ blob called reality is best for ozone related effects IMO.
Erl is on the right track but I think he has a couple of elements wrong.
Furthermore he doesn’t seem to focus on multidecadal / multicentennial variability
Great illustrations of a primary mechanism. All others are but effectual in response.
Thanks KL,
My mechanism is gaining ground at several blogs.
As per the previous post “No Statistically Significant Satellite Warming For 23 Years (Now Includes February Data)”, a La Nina and the sudden natural cooling after a super El Nino is going to make Nick Stokes head explode !!
The arctic is also interesting. All winter it has been running about 7 deg. C. above normal. Now, when it should be warming up, it isn’t. Another week like that and it will be below average. Verrry Interesting! link (source of the graph from the Sea Ice Page)
This also happened last year iirc.
You are right. Last year the temperature touched normal at about day 100 then zoomed up. The next week should be interesting.
This year so far has been quite a bit warmer than last year, and 2012, and 2007. If you like ice, things aren’t looking good. On the other hand, if you paid upward of $30k for a northwest passage cruise you are less likely to be iced in.
Personally, I’m cheering for it to stay cool for a bit longer. 🙂
I was under the impression that anthropogenic contributed co2 was the driving force in global temperature and everything else was merely a minor contributor. So now we are to believe that co2 levels are in fact not in control of the earth’s thermostat? How can this be? We have been told if we cut back on fossil fuel consumption we can save the planet! How can we save the planet from climate change if it changes without our help?
If ‘El Popo’ blows up big in Mexico we may get really cold.
http://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/el-popo-explosion-strongest-in-3-years/
The only heat I am seeing is the imminent bankruptcy of Sun Edison ala Enron.
Green Energy Chronicles: SunEdison Enters Death Spiral
Here is the link:
http://dailybail.com/home/green-energy-chronicles-sunedison-enters-death-spiral.html
whoooeee what a nest of nasties!
the way they chop n change management ceos etc
youd think their chairs at least were working electrically
not much else seems to be though..
odd isnt it?
how oreskes and the rest of her bestbuddies ALL manage to NOT see the subsidies n tax breaks TO big green
at least the coal oil gas mobs DO give something in return
a Cooler Earth May Be Coming Faster Than Predicted
That is an admirably circumspect title. “May be” is my favorite phrase in this discussion. The 2016/2016 el Nino, like the 1997/1998, “may be” followed by a step increase in the global mean temperature.
Admirably circumspect? Obviously Tony, nor anyone else, really KNOWS whether it will or not. So saying it will or won’t would be misleading. Is the honesty where your admiration stems from or are you a troll in training?
A few predictions:
PDO will flip back negative with this La Nina and there will be another double dip La Nina like in the early 50s/mid 70s. We won’t hear much about the “global average temperature” for a while with the propaganda focus instead on the brutally hot summers in North America, flooding in SE Asia, and a major hurricane will finally hit the U.S. The hiatus will be back on track by 2017 and more talk of global cooling by the end of this decade.
Last year, it was the warm blob in the North Pacific that was blamed for the unusual weather that we had in the North West and was speculated to be a reason the El Nino rains never fell in Southern California. Now it’s been replaced by a cold blob, how long until that’s blamed for some weather phenomenon blamed on climate change?
I hope La Niña gets here soon, here in Chile it means more rain (which we need, some parts of the country are suffering with drought) and more snow in the Andes. As a matter of fact today one of the biggest newspapers in Santiago ran a news about it: http://goo.gl/ZFRZX5: it says that more snow is predicted to fall in the ski centers around the city, because El Niño is finally receding. The ski resorts are happy of course!