Oh Noes!!! Sea Level Rise to Double… Again!

Guest post by David Middleton

Guardian

Sea levels could rise far more rapidly than expected in coming decades, according to new research that reveals Antarctica’s vast ice cap is less stable than previously thought.

The UN’s climate science body had predicted up to a metre of sea level rise this century – but it did not anticipate any significant contribution from Antarctica, where increasing snowfall was expected to keep the ice sheet in balance.

According a study, published in the journal Nature, collapsing Antarctic ice sheets are expected to double sea-level rise to two metres by 2100, if carbon emissions are not cut.

Previously, only the passive melting of Antarctic ice by warmer air and seawater was considered but the new work added active processes, such as the disintegration of huge ice cliffs.

“This [doubling] could spell disaster for many low-lying cities,” said Prof Robert DeConto, at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, who led the work. He said that if global warming was not halted, the rate of sea-level rise would change from millimetres per year to centimetres a year. “At that point it becomes about retreat [from cities], not engineering of defences.”

[…]

The Grauniad

I don’t know if Mr. Carrington has poor math, poor reading skills or is just inclined to hype his stories.  The “study, published in the journal Nature,” is actually an interesting paper and the full text is available for reading, but not downloading.  The authors devised a model which couples Antarctic ice loss to past sea level rises in the Pliocene and Pleistocene.  They then used this model, coupled with “Representative Carbon Pathway (RCP)” scenarios to forecast future sea level rises.

DeConto and Pollard conclude that “Antarctica has the potential to contribute more than a metre of sea-level rise by 2100.”

Antarctic_Sea_Level

Mr. Carrington apparently added this 1 meter to the IPCC’s 1 meter to come up with 2 meters.  He even bastardized a quote from Dr. DeConto…

“This [doubling] could spell disaster for many low-lying cities.”

The word “doubling” is Carrington’s, not DeConto’s.

I don’t know if Mr. Carrington read the paper or not; however the authors never forecasted a sea level rise of 2 meters by 2100…

RCP2
Under the worst case scenario (RCP 8.5) the Antarctica is forecasted to contribute 0.64 (±0.49) m to 1.05 (±0.30) m by 2100. The IPCC forecast estimated only a 0.4 m contribution under their “ice-sheet rapid dynamics” RCP 8.5 scenario.

The IPCC sea level forecast for 2100 in RCP 8.5 with ice-sheet rapid dynamics is 0.74 m (0.52 to 0.98 m), not 1 meter.  The Antarctic contribution is 0.04 m (-0.06 to 0.12).

If we go with the most likely, worst case RCP 8.5 scenarios…

IPCC – Antarctica = 0.70 m

DP 2016 Antarctica = 1.05 m

Sum =1.75 m

Under this scenario, the Antarctic contribution would actually more than double the IPCC’s forecast… But it would still be less than 2 m.

Now, let’s have a look at RCP 8.5…

RCP
RCP 8.5 forecasts that atmospheric CO2 would be approaching 4x the assumed pre-industrial level (280 ppm). 4 x 280 = 1,120

This noachian deluge forecast is based on the assumption that the atmospheric CO2 concentration will rise to 1,120 ppm by 2100

RCP 8.5
“How long can you tread water?” Bill Cosby, Noah skit

Does anyone actually believe that humans could burn enough stuff over the next 84 years to drive CO2 levels up by 700 ppm above the current ~400 ppm?  CO2 would have to rise by an average of 8.33 ppm per year over the remainder of the 21st century.

It appears that RCP 8.5 will turn Earth into Venus by 2100 AD.

But, what happens if I use real data?

Let’s assume that the atmospheric CO2 level will rise along an exponential trend line until 2100.

Figure 15. CO2 projected to 560 ppmv by 2100.

I get a CO2 level of 560 ppmv, in line with RCP 4.5… which leads to 0.53 (± 0.18) meters of sea level rise by 2100.

The only way sea level rise could approach the high end of the IPCC range is if it exponentially accelerates…

global-mean-sea-level-1931-2013-2

The rate from 2081-2100 would have to average 20 mm per year, twice that of the Holocene Transgression. This is only possible in bad science fiction movies in which Earth turns into Venus by 2100.

There simply is no data- or observation-driven reason to conclude that sea level will rise by more than 0.16 to 0.28 m (7-11 inches) during the 21st century under a realistic “business as usual” Representative Carbon Pathway.

 

Addendum

RCP 8.5 is even more batschist crazy then I had assumed…

rcp-guide-table4
http://www.skepticalscience.com/rcp.php?t=3

 

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DontGetOutMuch
April 1, 2016 6:49 am

Yep, and I could fly to the moon with rocket smoke coming out of my butt. I have a detailed model, so it must be so.

tom s
April 1, 2016 6:55 am

So at between 1-3mm/yr and no real sign of acceleration, how, pray tell is this gonna happen?

April 1, 2016 7:00 am

give me a break Shakespeare had these climate charlatans rightly placed around the big kettle;
double, double, toil and trouble
the climate burns as environmentalists bubble

Marcus
April 1, 2016 7:02 am

..I find it amazing that the liberal left can not even consider the possibility that the temperatures may reverse, as in the past, and become uncomfortably COLD ! As a Canadian, I can tell you, personally, that would really suck !

Menicholas
Reply to  Marcus
April 1, 2016 3:17 pm

Marcus, what you suggest is flat out impossible, as it would require a warmista to have an independent or original thought, or, even more unlikely engage tin critical thinking.
I suspect Dontgetoutmuch will be sending us stinky green smoke signals from the moon before either of those things occur.

3¢worth
Reply to  Marcus
April 1, 2016 3:23 pm

As a Canadian, it already sucks. Snow is forecast for this Sunday (Toronto) and well below average (current high about 8°C) temperatures for the next week at least.

Unmentionable
April 1, 2016 7:10 am

“At that point it becomes about retreat [from cities], not engineering of defences.”
hahaha … tell it to Venice, they’ve made a fortune out of it.

Menicholas
Reply to  Unmentionable
April 1, 2016 7:09 pm

The Dutch have held back a rising ocean since Medieval times using hand tools and simple machines powered by the wind.
But the fact is that the ocean is showing no sign of an acceleration in the gradual rise it has been undergoing for well over a hundred year.
At the current rate, all that would be necessary to avoid problems far into the future is to stop rebuilding in places destroyed by coastal storms and hurricanes.

April 1, 2016 7:15 am

The Guardian apparently exists to make the New York Times climate reporters look good. The new motto should be POOMA for sources.

Dan Hawkins
Reply to  Tom Halla
April 1, 2016 9:25 am

Thanks, Tom. Took me a minute to understand. Pulled Out Of My ___.
A ubiquitous source, all right.
Dan

Pamela Gray
April 1, 2016 7:19 am

Just published!!!!! This epic paper (which misses, entirely, ENSO processes that could exhibit a long term imbalance swing that results in rapid rise with jagged fall) attempts to describe the past 800,000 years of global warm and cold periods. Read in chunks. Lots to digest. This paper will be used by many in their attempt to ascribe CO2 as the driver. Only discerning researchers will ponder oceans as a long term battery combined with a long term oscillation that provides the energy necessary to drive the swings that supplies the stored energy that keeps things moving.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015RG000482/full
Here is the thing folks. Researchers want to find some sexy, magical tiny driver that in turns moves mountains. But what drives small swings should be our first consideration as a driver of large swings. That said, this paper is a garden of delights.

Steve Fraser
April 1, 2016 7:24 am

I love the hyperbolic title. I bet the first draft said… ‘Sea level expected to rise more than previously expected’

Trebla
April 1, 2016 7:33 am

On the upside, wouldn’t this be good for the fishing industry? Try to think positive thoughts.

Steve Case
April 1, 2016 7:38 am

Here’s what the rate of sea level rise has done since 2006 according to the current data
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/files/2016_rel1/sl_ns_global.txt
kept by the University of Colorado’s Sea Level Research Group:
http://oi63.tinypic.com/2vinjnd.jpg
It’s just a question of whether or not you think the uptick since 2012 will continue on into the future

Reply to  Steve Case
April 1, 2016 7:54 am

Nice try Steve , plotting graph upside down, April 1st.

joelobryan
Reply to  Steve Case
April 1, 2016 8:36 am

2014 followed 2014, it’s Deja vu all over again!
That graph needs uncertainty values or 90% confidence intervals. But it also lacks any serious quality control.
As in, they determined 2014 Global SLR was 0.04 mm/yr (40 microns) higher than end of 2012. Yeah right.

Steve Case
Reply to  joelobryan
April 1, 2016 11:51 am

Two 2014s
Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!
Missed that one. The time line intervals of CU’s data are tied to the satellite orbits, and in order to make it come out right you have to, among other things, well look to see if it did. Here’s one I did earlier with 100 day smoothing:
http://oi65.tinypic.com/29549l0.jpg
I used the half way point of the time series (2004) instead of the last decade. I couldn’t decide. Maybe I should do it again and start at 2000. Doesn’t matter, calculating the rate 1992-1993, 1992-1994, 1992-1995, etc. and plotting the result starting at some reasonable point 1992-2000, or 1992-2004, or 1992-2006 to eliminate the effects of short term noise will produce similar graphs.
Thanks for pointing out the error

Patrick B
Reply to  Steve Case
April 1, 2016 9:34 am

Well, first it’s a question of whether you believe they can actually measure sea level rise with the accuracy implied by the graph. Am I correct in my understanding they claim to have been able to measure a 0.15 mm rise in world wide sea level between 2012 and today? Any realistic margins of error to be attached to these measurements?

AJB
Reply to  Steve Case
April 1, 2016 10:10 am
April 1, 2016 7:39 am

Sea level rise and global warming
2014 followed by 2015 and now 2016 (based on the data recorded during the first quartile) are by far warmest years on record, mainly due to the temperatures rise in the N. Hemisphere. Well known climate scientist W. Civeckuv has found the true reason for the unprecedented warming.
Rapid rise of temperatures in the Arctic have led to record ice melting in Greenland, resulting in the melt water flowing further south, and so caused change in the global gravity (weight) distribution has affected the Earth’s rotation axis tilt.
The effect is progressively increasing N. Hemisphere’s and reducing S. Hemisphere’s insolation causing notable increase in the ice volumes in the Antarctica, and so further adding to the gravitational imbalance between hemispheres.
W. Civeckuv claims that the Earth’s climate has entered dangerous ‘positive feedback loop’, and recovery may not be possible at least for another 100 kY, when the next but one Milankovic cycle is about to kick in. more details can be found here

Steve Case
Reply to  vukcevic
April 1, 2016 7:50 am

April 1st 2016

Reply to  vukcevic
April 2, 2016 5:11 am

Yes it is 1st April story, but not necessarily totally implausible.
W. Civeckuv = M. Vukcevic (wrong way around), the link is to my website. Hope no one is offended.

Thomas Edwardson
Reply to  vukcevic
April 3, 2016 6:36 am

We appreciate the effort.
Actually, in all seriousness, I have wondered whether such a thing is possible. Consider that all of the ice locked up at the poles is sitting on or near the Earth’s axis of rotation, and therefore has a small amount of angular momentum. Imagine that if all the ice melts and flows into the oceans, it will gain momentum as it flows towards the equator. However, more of the melt water, and therefore more of the momentum, will end up in the southern hemisphere as we have noted the northern hemisphere is already filled with most of the water displacing continental crust. So now that we have further unbalanced from north to south the spinning Earth, which already has known wobble, what happens to that wobble?
But then again, I have also wondered what the collective effect would be on all of the Earth’s seismometers would be if we all jumped up off the ground at exactly the same time. Should we try it? How about next year, April 1st, 2017, 12:00 GMT? I can see the headlines now … Ground-breaking flash mob shakes the world!

Reply to  vukcevic
April 3, 2016 12:11 pm

Hi Mr. Edwardson, thanks for the comment. I suppose a good April 1st story has to be just on the edge of credibility.

LamontT
April 1, 2016 7:48 am

Wait I’ve seen this story before haven’t I? Or no it’s just that they are always predicting a meter sea level rise over the NEXT century. Mind you the start and end dates of that century keep moving forward and we never seem to actually be in the century where it is happening when you go back and look.

Steve Case
Reply to  LamontT
April 1, 2016 7:55 am

There’s not a lot of difference between averaging 10 mm/yr for the next century or 12 mm/yr for the next 84 years. Both are gross exaggerations.

LamontT
Reply to  Steve Case
April 1, 2016 8:24 am

I know and worse they recycle it every single year and no one but us skeptics questions it. ::sigh:: you would think someone would eventually suffer enough cognitive dissonance from the sea levels not actually rising that fast.

April 1, 2016 7:52 am

I remember reading somewhere that to reach the CO2 levels involved in RCP 8.5 we would have to dig up and burn every single bit of fossil fuel on the planet over the next 84 years.
Then we would have to dig it all up and burn it again.
5 times over
Anyone know if this is accurate?

Editor
Reply to  David Middleton
April 1, 2016 2:57 pm

RCP 8.5 has more CO2 than would be generated by burning all current reserves.
Doing the calculation on RCP8.5 shows burning more coal than there is reserves, by 2100.
Reserves 860 Gt
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal
the paper that shows the amount of coal burned in exaJoules. (10^18 joules) Fig 5 (need to estimate from graph. I get 40000 EJ over the century)
http://download.springer.com/static/pdf/700/art%253A10.1007%252Fs10584-011-0149-y.pdf?auth66=1411082238_6e5e56fcca0686fcc271b84fd0868908&ext=.pdf
energy in coal (7.2 GJ for 1 tonne to make electricity this gives 6.19E^21 J total energy in 860 GT reserves)
http://hypertextbook.com/facts/2006/LunChen.shtml
Total reserves vs amount burned in this scenario is about 15.5%, or 6.5 times more coal than in reserves. In other words, not possible. If you increase the energy in coal from 7.2 GJ/tonne to about 20, then total burned in RCP8.5 is only about twice reserves. Which is still impossible. There can be up to 30 GJ/tonne energy in coal. Even at the upper end, there is still more coal burned than there is reserves.
This was also calculated here, with similar results.
http://judithcurry.com/2014/04/22/coal-and-the-ipcc/#more-15332

DaveB
April 1, 2016 7:53 am

Time to act. Start tearing down all the seaside homes while they are in tact. Much easier to clean up now before they are washed to sea.

April 1, 2016 7:57 am

I stopped taking this seriously when I got here … “This noachian deluge forecast is based on the assumption that the atmospheric CO2 concentration will rise to 1,120 ppm by 2100”
Didn’t Willis, or one of the normal contributors here, figure out that there’s not enough available carbon reserves in the entire world to double CO2 from 400ppm to 800ppm?

MarkW
Reply to  David Middleton
April 1, 2016 10:40 am

That assumes that none of the CO2 that is sequestered during that 84 year period.

Mary Brown
Reply to  wallensworth
April 1, 2016 10:24 am

Also, Hansen forecast apologists (1988) always claim that “Scenario A” did not occur and it was between “B” and “C”. This is, of course, baloney. The business as usual Scenario A is what happened, and then some. Actually Scenario A+ is what happened. But, CO2 levels in the atmosphere did not rise as fast as Hansen thought. Conclusion… CO2 is accumulating in the atmosphere less than thought.
So, the atmosphere is less sensitive to CO2 than assumed and CO2 is accumulating in the atmosphere less than assumed. The result? Warming at about 40% of the rates forecast by models over the last 25 years. That is very good news. We don’t seem to have enough carbon burning capability to do much significant climate changing.
And sea level rates are the same or slower than ever….
http://www.jcronline.org/doi/abs/10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-10-00157.1
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818113002397
The “save the earth” types should be celebrating this news. Why, instead, are they so mad about it?

April 1, 2016 7:58 am

Thank you for coming to the same conclusion I came to, that sea level would have to accelerate at 3.7% per year, which would mean in the last years to 2100 it would have to be rising at some 25-30 times today’s rate. Physically impossible.

Reply to  David Middleton
April 1, 2016 9:20 am

And that is where there was a whole lot more ice.

CaligulaJones
April 1, 2016 8:03 am

Sir, in regards to the insurance policy that said we would cover you for a runaway bulldozer smashing into your house for a mere $1,000 a month (minus a $5,000 deductible, of course, those office towers don’t build themselves):
We have unfortunately discovered that, in fact, you are in danger of TWO bulldozers smashing into your house. Your premiums will now need to be adjusted to $10,000 a month, and your deductible will now be $10,000, but please check back often, as the number of potential runaway bulldozers seems to be increasing exponentially, as our models show (spreadsheet attached).

CaligulaJones
Reply to  CaligulaJones
April 1, 2016 8:06 am

Sir:
Our apologies, please delete the spreadsheet previously attached, as it was sent erroneously. Please note also that the title “Profit from Highly Dubious Insurance Outcomes” is also erroneous. As is the actual data. Please, please delete it. Its a draft, created by a now-terminated inexperienced employee.

PaulS
April 1, 2016 8:04 am

This noachian deluge forecast is based on the assumption that the atmospheric CO2 concentration will rise to 1,120 ppm by 2100
As the graph states, this is a CO2-equivalent concentration. The year 2100 CO2 concentration in RCP8.5 is 936ppm.
Let’s assume that the atmospheric CO2 level will rise along an exponential trend line until 2100… I get a CO2 level of 560 ppmv
2015 level was 400ppm, so thats a 160ppm rise over 85 years = average rate of 1.88ppm/yr. That’s less than the average rate for the past 20 years, which suggests your exponential fit has gone wrong.
936ppm at 2100 means an average increase of 6.3ppm/yr. The current rate of about 2.3ppm/yr is roughly treble what it was 60 years ago so, from a basic demand economics perspective, I can’t see that a rise to 6.3 and beyond is implausible.

bones
Reply to  David Middleton
April 1, 2016 12:59 pm

Extrapolating polynomials is generally a very, very bad idea!

rah
April 1, 2016 8:26 am

And they publish this garbage as the Surface Mass Balance of Greenland is above the mean and that at Antarctica has been growing over all.

Bob Weber
April 1, 2016 8:40 am

‘DeConto and Pollard conclude that “Antarctica has the potential to contribute more than a metre of sea-level rise by 2100.”’
The absurdity is glaring.
If it’s hot enough for the Antarctic to melt down just enough for a 1m SL rise, then it’d be hot enough for Greenland’s ice to melt more, and the Arctic ice, so the net overall supposed SL rise would be much greater IF they are right about CO2.
Did they figure out whether the predicted melting would occur under the ice or from the surface? In either case, what air/water temperatures did they assign to the Antarctic in order to drive the melting, and how did they figure that out? It’s pretty cold there now. How do they propose the temperature is going to get above freezing anywhere long enough there to melt that ice, and did they show that it happened before?

Reply to  David Middleton
April 1, 2016 9:24 am

I would argue that models provide no insight at all. Time after time they continue to fail in their predictions and attempts to capture the real world. They are expensive worthless computer games.

Patrick B
Reply to  David Middleton
April 1, 2016 10:24 am

So David, help me understand what you are saying. Of what use are these models? I can model what would happen if we had a 10C rise in world temperatures by 2100 – so what? A model is only useful if it helps you to understand, and thus predict, a process and its real world results. Otherwise it’s either a game or a basis to commit a fraud.

Reply to  David Middleton
April 1, 2016 11:53 am

Except it IS serving a purpose, for government to use as a tool to further their political agendas claiming the science says so. This BS about “might” is just that. I “might” get hit by a car today, but what are the odds? Not once have I see anything resembling any kind of odds, calculated or pulled out of the air. For if they did provide odds, their entire premise of humans causing catastrophic climate change completely collapses.
I like to use cities on tectonic zones. There “might” be an big one which would kill millions, yet noting is done to move people away from tectonic zones. Yet in climate science a “might” is used to justify raping people for billions in tax dollars.
This isnt about science at all, it is a means to an end of UN Agenda 21 and must be resisted.

Mike Bromley the Kurd
April 1, 2016 8:41 am

The monotonous uniformity of alarmist writings used to be an irritation. Now it’s a full-blown bore. Like The usual Obama speech, where his head bobs from side to side, punctuated with pregnant pauses as Soros gropes for the right string to pull, “Climate change is real…………….it is happening now……………more extreme weather……….more heat waves………..more intense storms……….right now millions are feeling the effects……of rising seas………….” and now we have that crosseyed chimpanzee from Ottawa reciting the same groan and moan. What to do.

Kpar
Reply to  David Middleton
April 1, 2016 11:09 am

OMG!! A new hockey stick!
Is this the next “Carrington Event”?

Jamspid
April 1, 2016 9:39 am

“Oh we do like to buy beside the seaside”
Despite Climate Change . What are Coastal front property prices doing

CaligulaJones
Reply to  Jamspid
April 1, 2016 9:44 am

Well, my benchmark on ocean-front property will be when Al Gore and David Suzuki (or more probably, their ancestors) sell. Until then, all is well.

Jamspid
April 1, 2016 9:42 am
TonyL
April 1, 2016 9:43 am

David Middleton said:
“Models are just tools. Any tool can be misused.”
Climate models are the scientific equivalent of hitting your thumb with a hammer.

Mary Brown
April 1, 2016 10:10 am

IPCC forecast for 2100 + 0.74m
Observed 2000-2016 +.025m
We are 1/30th of the way there after 1/6 of the century.

Bruce Cobb
Reply to  Mary Brown
April 1, 2016 11:12 am

LOLs. Just wait til that “hidden heat” hiding in the ocean deeps decides to come out.
Then you’ll be sorry!

MarkW
April 1, 2016 10:26 am

“Oh Noes!!! Sea Level Rise to Double”
And this time we really, really, mean it.

CaligulaJones
Reply to  MarkW
April 1, 2016 10:52 am

..or else.

Editor
April 1, 2016 11:17 am

The paper claims that Antarctica “could contribute” a metre of sea level rise by 2050 … dear heavens, whatever these guys are smoking must be da kine …
Sea level rise is currently on the order of 2 mm/year. Suppose it started to accelerate today today at a constant rate, an exponential increase that will be continued for 84 years. In order to get to an additional metre of rise by 2100, the exponential increase in the rate must be 3.76% per year, a stupendous increase that leads to ludicrous sea level rise rates of over 40 mm/year by the year 2100. Riiiight …
Since they have nothing but their whiz-bang model to support this bizarre claim, I’m going to go back to real science and leave them to their fun.
w.

Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
April 1, 2016 11:55 am

Funny how people like you and me can come to that conclusion using a spreadsheet, yet these “experts” cant, or wont, as they need to keep the lie going so their funding keeps going.

PaulS
Reply to  J. Richard Wakefield
April 1, 2016 1:29 pm

Let’s hope ice sheets know Excel.

Editor
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
April 1, 2016 4:42 pm

Willis: I am trying to engage Gavin with a bet. He stated 1 meter by 2100, and said it was quite likely. I offered 1000 to 10000, in trust of course. No nibble.
I then offered 5 mm/year RATE by 2050 would NOT be achieved. Crickets.
I did get a twitter response from someone else, who was willing to bet that Gavin would NOT take the bet. That does seem the safer bet.

Chris
Reply to  Willis Eschenbach
April 2, 2016 10:48 am

The paper talks about the West Antarctica ice sheet collapsing. That event, if true, is unrelated to the level of sea rise occurring today. It’s more analogous to a dam bursting on a river – to look at the rise in river flow prior to the dam bursting will not give you any indication of the increase in water flow the bursting dam will cause.

Mark
April 1, 2016 12:27 pm

This is the sort of thing Grauniad readers like to say in the comments sections of that lunatic rag “Humans will largely die off within 30 years and be extinct within 50 years”.
I suspect that^ one will be up for a Darwin award before long

Robert
April 1, 2016 2:36 pm

The sea level rise in 2100 is worse than we thought it’s actually going to be 1000 metres and this time unlike any of the other times we really really really positively absolutely unrefutably 100 percent guarantee with 12.56745321 percent confidence that it will happen.
(Subject to change in our weekly updates)

April 1, 2016 3:26 pm

I will get worried about sea level rise when I see any evidence here in Australia that there has been any noticeable rise in sea level since 1850. So far things are normal. What may be going on in the minds of the Warmistas, in the adjusted graphs and in the computer models is another matter.

Jeff McBeth
April 1, 2016 4:16 pm

I was filling up my car at the local gas station in southern Minnesota. The convenience store recently installed TVs in the gas pumps to entertain you and when I was almost done an info lady came on and referenced this study! All I could think of was all of the low information climate consumers now have this factoid stuck in their skulls along with the 97% consensus.

Rick Bradford
April 1, 2016 6:49 pm

** I don’t know if Mr. Carrington has poor math, poor reading skills or is just inclined to hype his stories. **
In fact, Mr. Carrington has poor math, poor reading skills and is just inclined to hype his stories.

RD
April 1, 2016 9:16 pm

I sail often in a boat that costs more than … anyway I have no problem sailing off charts decades old…hell many charts rely on surveys from a century ago. Other than hazards to navigation not much changes. Certainly tides and seal levels are little changed decade to decade.And of course GBS is better, but I sailed for decades without.

indefatigablefrog
April 2, 2016 1:18 am

I’m quite happy to accept the premise that accelerating anthropogenic global warming should cause an acceleration of ice sheet melting and therefore an acceleration of sea level rise rate.
Looking directly at the long-term coastal gauge charts it is quite clear that no such acceleration is occurring.
Especially not when also accounting for subsidence caused by drainage, and aquifer extraction.
Therefore, having accepted that first premise – I am hereby forced to reject the proposition that accelerating anthropogenic global warming exists at all.
My conclusion must be – that coastal gauges give us more accurate data than (for example) crappy bucket SSTs from the 19th century. That coastal gauge data is less prone to such problems as the need for multiple adjustments, equipment changes, UHI, relocation, changes in paint etc.
That’s enough for me. I’ll go with the coastal gauges.
The coastal gauge record has convinced me that everything else perceived must be based on poor data, anecdote, cherrypicking, bias, overcomplication of analysis and a strong and urgent desire to cash in on convincing the world that it is in peril.
Clearly nothing is melting at an accelerating rate and nothing is warming at an accelerating rate.
If it was – then it would be there in the coastal gauge records for all to see. And it isn’t.
Also, I notice that the authors of the above study have created some handy graphs which effectively “explain” why nothing of note will happen until around the point of their retirement.
Only then may we see the beginning of the catastrophic divergence from the trend of the last 100 years.
That leads me to suspect that they don’t expect to really see any changes either.
At least idiots such as Hansen and Erhlich had the conviction to make firm (but wrong) predictions of changes that would be witnessed in the near future.
This new breed of climatologist is a feeble wretch, who lacks conviction, but wants the attention all the same and creates myths about a post 2050 exponential apocalypse.
Go away, you tedious charlatans. We know what your game is.

Donald Hanson
April 2, 2016 10:31 pm

Admit it. They are getting much smarter about their predictions, they are pushing the time out to way past retirement.

Amber
April 2, 2016 10:36 pm

I think the fish will be down right pleased with this inaccurate model prediction .However,
the water front property owners in the scary global warming industry haven’t listed their
mansions yet so we must be OK for a year or two at least .
The conmen in the earth has a fever industry seemed to have learned to set their doom and gloom pronouncements to be really really devastating and effective after they retire . Can’t say they are stupid now .
Got to keep those government grants and contracts coming after all .
The 1970’s … earth is turning to an ice ball just had a more ominous tone and fear factor . Can we expect a return to that fertile ground now that scary global warming has lost it’s puff ? Climate change is that transition language from global warming to global cooling or what ever fear might be more saleable .
It’s about the money Honey and it always has been .

Chris
April 3, 2016 2:11 am

This reminds me of an earnest BBC environmental reporter who had managed to inveigle his way to the South Pole Base and earnestly told us how the ice was melting.due to climate change. He failed to realize that, within sight of the camera, on a bank of weather instruments, a gauge showed the outside air temperature ad -48 degrees! These clowns are so scientifically illiterate that they do not understand that the temperature needs to rise 49 degrees, not 2 degrees, which is supposed to be the tipping point, before the ice starts to melt.

Tobyw
Reply to  Chris
April 5, 2016 4:17 am

They also seem to ignore that much of the sea ice at least, melts then re freezes annually. The long term trend is a small fraction of the annual change and so is subject to errors based on the seasonal change and annual change in weather.

Peter Yates
April 3, 2016 11:17 pm

The top post twice mentions Earth turning into Venus by 2100. I realize that the author doesn’t believe that, but the facts are that they are *very different planets, and it will be never be possible while Earth retains its strong magnetic fields, and retains its biomass and oceans, and maintains its rotation and distance from the Sun.
This is why the two planets cannot be directly compared: ..
1. Venus (like Mars) does not have a strong magnetic core. Therefore there aren’t any extensive magnetic fields to help protect the planet. Apparently, gases like hydrogen, helium, and oxygen ions, would have been swept away by the solar wind over very long periods of time, leaving the higher-mass molecules like carbon dioxide. (“Venus as a more Earth-like planet”, _Nature_ 450, Nov. 2007.)
2. Venus was left with a very dense atmosphere. It is more than 96% carbon dioxide.
3. The atmosphere’s pressure at the surface is 92 times more than Earth’s pressure.
4. Venus is considerably closer to the Sun, at about 0.72 of the distance from the Sun to the Earth.
5. The equator rotates at 6.5 km/h or 4 mph. (The Earth’s is about 1,670 km/h or 1,040 mph). Therefore a Venus day is *very long! Venus takes 243 Earth days to rotate once.
6. Naturally given the above, Venus does not have biomass, or oceans, to absorb some of the CO2, and it does not have a carbon cycle to lock carbon back into the rocks.

Peter Yates
Reply to  David Middleton
April 4, 2016 3:42 pm

I understood that *you didn’t believe it, and were using sarcasm. .. But there are some people who actually do believe that it would be possible some time in the future for the Earth to turn into a Venus. So whenever I get a chance I like to list the facts, so that they would (hopefully) have one less doomsday scenario to worry about. … … In the three years before the infamous date of Dec. 21, 2012, I used to help mainly young people who went to the website forum at ‘2012hoax.org’ because they were convinced that the world would end on that date. I guess the habit of trying to help people like that is still with me!

Tobyw
April 5, 2016 4:10 am

The 50-year sea level trend at The Battery peaked around 1950 as did a few others I happened to check a while back. This data is calculated at sites with data going back sufficiently far. There are other sites that do not agree but they seem to have rising or falling land that skew the data. Ultimately war we seeks its own level, so eventually differing levels should even out.

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