Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Researchers at University of Queensland and Griffith University have published a study, which claims global warming will exceed the green panic threshold of 2c by 2030.
The abstract of the study;
Abstract
The United Nations Conference on Climate Change (Paris 2015) reached an international agreement to keep the rise in global average temperature ‘well below 2°C’ and to ‘aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C’. These reductions will have to be made in the face of rising global energy demand. Here a thoroughly validated dynamic econometric model (Eq 1) is used to forecast global energy demand growth (International Energy Agency and BP), which is driven by an increase of the global population (UN), energy use per person and real GDP (World Bank and Maddison). Even relatively conservative assumptions put a severe upward pressure on forecast global energy demand and highlight three areas of concern. First, is the potential for an exponential increase of fossil fuel consumption, if renewable energy systems are not rapidly scaled up. Second, implementation of internationally mandated CO2 emission controls are forecast to place serious constraints on fossil fuel use from ~2030 onward, raising energy security implications. Third is the challenge of maintaining the international ‘pro-growth’ strategy being used to meet poverty alleviation targets, while reducing CO2 emissions. Our findings place global economists and environmentalists on the same side as they indicate that the scale up of CO2 neutral renewable energy systems is not only important to protect against climate change, but to enhance global energy security by reducing our dependence of fossil fuels and to provide a sustainable basis for economic development and poverty alleviation. Very hard choices will have to be made to achieve ‘sustainable development’ goals.
Read more: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0149406
From the press release in The Guardian;
Dangerous global warming will happen sooner than thought – study
Australian researchers say a global tracker monitoring energy use per person points to 2C warming by 2030.
The world is on track to reach dangerous levels of global warming much sooner than expected, according to new Australian research that highlights the alarming implications of rising energy demand.
University of Queensland and Griffith University researchers have developed a “global energy tracker” which predicts average world temperatures could climb 1.5C above pre-industrial levels by 2020.
That forecast, based on new modelling using long-term average projections on economic growth, population growth and energy use per person, points to a 2C rise by 2030.
…
The new modelling is the brainchild of Ben Hankamer from UQ’s institute for molecular bioscience and Liam Wagner from Griffith University’s department of accounting, finance and economics, whose work was published in the journal Plos One on Thursday.
In the embarrassing aftermath of all the failed ice free arctic deadlines, it is nice to see climate researchers once again daring to put their reputations on the line, with testable predictions – just 4 years to wait, until 2020.
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Quote from the paper:
“….First, is the potential for an exponential increase of fossil fuel consumption, if renewable energy systems are not rapidly scaled up….”
When, oh when is somebody going to make the world realize that wind and solar do not scale up as a replacement for commercial base load fossil fuel and nuclear power plants? The long it takes for us to wake up to that reality, the more resources will be wasted on solar and wind.
http://fuelrfuture.com/review-of-forbes-on-line-magazine-article-solar-energy-revolution-a-massive-opportunity/
From the article:
“Key Concepts:
29.3 billion 1 square meter solar panels are required for 100% solar power in the U.S. based on current demand 24 hours a day, 365 days per year.
29.3 billion 1square meter panels would cover 29,333 km2 which equals 7.2 million acres, or almost all of Maryland and Delaware.
If 1 square meter PV panels were manufactured at the rate of 1 per second, it would take 929 years to manufacture 29.3 billion panels
The cost of a solar only approach exceeds $15.27 trillion
To meet all energy demands for transportation, industrial, and commercial-agriculture would require 176 billion solar panels and 5,574 years to produce
Moore’s Law is not applicable to the production or deployment of solar panels
Increases in “solar cell efficiency” have little impact on land area to produce utility scale power
Unsubsidized Solar has applicability in rural areas and developing countries with low population density
Google’s Green Energy Project RE<C was canceled; “Renewable energy technologies simply won’t work; we need a fundamentally different approach; Suggest “A disruptive fusion technology…”"
Still trying to figure out why Google is invested in Ivanpah when their own engineers admit that renewables won't work. Sigh……
“…29.3 billion 1square meter panels would cover 29,333 km2 which equals 7.2 million acres, or almost all of Maryland and Delaware…”
Would happily sacrifice Maryland and Delaware if it put D.C. permanently in the shade.
I’m good to go for paving over Maryland with PV solar – I can think of several university research centers as further candidate sites – you know, a “follow the sun” strategy.
Meanwhile, if Maunder Minimum solar activity produces Maunder Minimum temperatures, then we could be in another mini ice age by 2030.
Doomsday 2020 was looking old and stale anyway.
There is a wide consensus among unskeptical climate scientists, that temperature rise since pre-industrial times is somewhat less than 1°C so far.
At first sight it seems to be quite impossible to exceed this warming in the remaining 14 years we have until 2030. However, all is not lost, because only a brand new set of proxies is needed, calibrated just-so, to produce an unprecedented cooling of the pre-industrial past, which makes it attainable to reach the 2°C target by 2030.
However, it is not a small job, so research funding must be increased accordingly.
The temperature data for the average temperature for the earth will probably, in fact, show 2C worth of warming by 2030. The fact that it will be fraudulent data just is not mentioned.
Future cherry picking? 2020 could very well be an El Niño year.
Translation : We need even more grant money than we thought. Alarm!! alarm!!
The United Nations Conference on Climate Change (Paris 2015) reached an international totally meaningless, face-saving and bogus agreement based on pseudoscience and politics, to pretend to keep the rise in global average temperature ‘well below 2°C’ and to hilariously ‘aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C”.
There, fixed.
Once again, people in Australia are forced to publicly apologise for the arrant nonsense emanating from a centre of higher ‘education’, in this case at University of Queensland and Griffith University. It has something to do with too many large grants and idle hands,
ntesdorf
Apology accepted. Us Yanks would gladly trade our president for all your goof-balls. We’ll even throw in ALL our presidential candidates.
But seriously, you’re producing some world-class sheep shearers – you just ned to point ’em at Ovis aries, not taxpayers.
Am I incorrect in remembering the this was supposed to be in a hundred months from the last prediction which is up in six months or so. Surely if this is true instead of listening to climate scientists we should be charging them with criminally overselling the quality of the product instead of listening to the next wild prediction.
Watching the film “shattered glass” should be compulsory for anyone before assessing climate science and then seeing how the way data has been adjusted follows such a similar progression from tweaking for effect to near total fiction. It is interesting how in the interview with the real life character who is the basis of the story he uses any words but lie or deceit to describe his actions.
why is calamity always 15 years or more down the road? I want it NOW. Ten years ago Al Gore promised doom and death from climate change….very disappointed. I don’t have that many years left, I think I will never get to see the dire results predicted for climate change.
Still there is something for not having climate change, NYC looked much nicer covered in a half mile thick glacier.