Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Researchers at University of Queensland and Griffith University have published a study, which claims global warming will exceed the green panic threshold of 2c by 2030.
The abstract of the study;
Abstract
The United Nations Conference on Climate Change (Paris 2015) reached an international agreement to keep the rise in global average temperature ‘well below 2°C’ and to ‘aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C’. These reductions will have to be made in the face of rising global energy demand. Here a thoroughly validated dynamic econometric model (Eq 1) is used to forecast global energy demand growth (International Energy Agency and BP), which is driven by an increase of the global population (UN), energy use per person and real GDP (World Bank and Maddison). Even relatively conservative assumptions put a severe upward pressure on forecast global energy demand and highlight three areas of concern. First, is the potential for an exponential increase of fossil fuel consumption, if renewable energy systems are not rapidly scaled up. Second, implementation of internationally mandated CO2 emission controls are forecast to place serious constraints on fossil fuel use from ~2030 onward, raising energy security implications. Third is the challenge of maintaining the international ‘pro-growth’ strategy being used to meet poverty alleviation targets, while reducing CO2 emissions. Our findings place global economists and environmentalists on the same side as they indicate that the scale up of CO2 neutral renewable energy systems is not only important to protect against climate change, but to enhance global energy security by reducing our dependence of fossil fuels and to provide a sustainable basis for economic development and poverty alleviation. Very hard choices will have to be made to achieve ‘sustainable development’ goals.
Read more: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0149406
From the press release in The Guardian;
Dangerous global warming will happen sooner than thought – study
Australian researchers say a global tracker monitoring energy use per person points to 2C warming by 2030.
The world is on track to reach dangerous levels of global warming much sooner than expected, according to new Australian research that highlights the alarming implications of rising energy demand.
University of Queensland and Griffith University researchers have developed a “global energy tracker” which predicts average world temperatures could climb 1.5C above pre-industrial levels by 2020.
That forecast, based on new modelling using long-term average projections on economic growth, population growth and energy use per person, points to a 2C rise by 2030.
…
The new modelling is the brainchild of Ben Hankamer from UQ’s institute for molecular bioscience and Liam Wagner from Griffith University’s department of accounting, finance and economics, whose work was published in the journal Plos One on Thursday.
In the embarrassing aftermath of all the failed ice free arctic deadlines, it is nice to see climate researchers once again daring to put their reputations on the line, with testable predictions – just 4 years to wait, until 2020.
They’ve still hedged their 2020 prediction by stating “average world temperatures could climb 1.5C above pre-industrial levels by 2020″
So we can expect a bunch of excuses in 4 years
“….it is nice to see climate researchers once again daring to put their reputations on the line, with testable predictions – just 4 years to wait, until 2020….”
And I am willing to bet they will produce numbers, however questionable, to verify their claim at that time. The whole AGW meme is based on misinformation and half truths that are perpetuated by the MSM so it’s no surprise claims like this are made and the narrative perpetuated.
Yes, but not too soon because then they’d have to move the goal posts again… LOL
Whenever some organisation writes:
you just know economic development
is going to be negatively impacted and poverty turned into a growth industry.
We don’t need another World Bank and International Monetary Fund.
Both of them were tasked with `economic development’ and `alleviation of
poverty’ when they were established after WW2. Since then, economies
have stagnated and inflated faster and faster and poverty growing at similar
rates wherever their prescriptions have been enacted.
http://worldnewsdailyreport.com/edward-snowden-global-warming-is-an-invention-of-the-cia/?utm_campaign=shareaholic&utm_medium=facebook&utm_source=socialnetwork
EDWARD SNOWDEN: “GLOBAL WARMING IS AN INVENTION OF THE CIA”
March 7th, 2016 | by Barbara Johnson.
Moscow | National Security Agency whistleblower Edward Snowden, has made a new controversial claim yesterday during an interview, saying that he possesses some classified information proving that the CIA is behind the “theory of Global Warming”.
Snowden, who lives as a fugitive in Russia after leaking documents about the NSA’s surveillance programs, has made some previously unreported allegations during an interview with the Moscow Tribune.
Mr. Snowden says the CIA first orchestrated the spread of the “Global Warming scare” in the 1950s, in order to divert the attention of the scientific community, from the dangers of the weapons race and reinforce its control over research institutes.
“I have documents showing that the CIA invented the whole thing,” claims Edward Snowden. “Global Warming was invented to both scare people, and divert their attention from other human-made dangers like nuclear weapons. The CIA gave millions of dollars to any scientist who would confirm the theory, so many unscrupulous scientists did what they were told in order to get the money. Now, there is so much fake data to confirm that Global Warming “exists”, that they actually convinced everyone that it was real.”
This gets better and better!
Ah! Just nicely timed for Alan Alda’s opening of the World Science Festival of story telling here tonight:
http://theconversation.com/alan-alda-on-the-art-of-science-communication-i-want-to-tell-you-a-story-55769
“Third is the challenge of maintaining the international ‘pro-growth’ strategy being used to meet poverty alleviation targets,…”
This is a current and burgeoning Marxist angle:
1. capitalism’s humanism depends on increased average , wealth per individual (somehow, the rising tide will lift all ships);
2. the wealth of nations is built upon land, labor, capital, and entrepreneurship (Adam Smith, with credits to the Author of Isaiah);
3. the earth’s resources, A. Smith’s “land,” are all in environmental cycles, except when humans are in the cycle;
4. humans are messing everything up (maybe due to inherent evilness)(which is it, greenies: are humans different from all other species as the Bible says, or are we yet another part of the natural cycles and naturally operating evolution? — is there actual good-and-evil, or is all relative?);
5. whatever good it might have ever had, wealth-building is about to run its course as a solution for poverty;
6. What Karl Marx said is the solution should be adopted as the solution.
It is watermelons all the way down.
wood for trees using hadcrut4 from 1850 – 2016, 5 year smoothing gives about 0.8 C increase since pre-industrial times.
That means they have predicted 0.7 C increase in the next 4 years, or 0.18 C per year.
It looks to be high by an order of magnitude right out of the gate.
Renewable energy. Back your car up to windmill and let you blow you down the road.
Or have a portable one hidden in the boot.
Note the change in strategy. Its no longer “worse than we thought”, it is now “sooner than we thought”.
Forecast by a molecular biologist teamed up with a glorified accountant. Excellent. Physics has left the building.
that’s not such a hard thing when they keep ‘adjusting’ the data (or rather their interpretation of it) to make the past colder and the present warmer…
From the article;
“The new modelling is the brainchild of Ben Hankamer from UQ’s institute for molecular bioscience and Liam Wagner from Griffith University’s department of accounting, finance and economics, whose work was published in the journal Plos One on Thursday.”
Models again! More garbage from Australia. Plos One is clearly only suitable for Lew paper, make sure you don’t push your finger too far and too hard.
“Australian researchers say a global tracker monitoring energy use per person points to 2C warming by 2030”
except that there is no empirical evidence that shows that fossil fuel emissions cause warming
http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2725743
To “scale up of CO2 neutral renewable energy systems” and “provide a sustainable basis for economic development and poverty alleviation” are mutually exclusive propositions.
They are “gambling” on a democrat as next US President, who will encourage Karl, Mears, Schmidt et. all. to continue moving global warming temperature records up towards the climate models. A democrat in the White House will accomplish that, whereas Cruz or Trump will prevent it. The verification boils down to who enters the White House in January 2017.
This may put the nonsense paper in context:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-11/academics-dramatise-expected-study-outcomes-for-funding-study/7238694
These guys have a point actually. It should obvious to just about anyone with an IQ even approaching room temperature that the folks now living low energy lives in Asia, South America, and Africa are going to consume humongous amounts of energy as their standard of living improves. That’s very likely going to cause considerable real, actual climate change even if, as seems likely, “climate science” has considerably overestimated the sensitivity of climate to CO2. Sadly that simple reality seems to be beyond the comprehension of world leaders and their advisors.
Dear Lord, that is desperate stuff, University of Queensland and Griffith University researchers are telling fairy tales.
It leads one to speculate on, is there a competition going on down under? Thus, to order and decide on, just who can weave the most deceitful web, to be the greatest climate catastrophe spinner of them all?
Hmmm…. In case the CAGW alarmists haven’t looked at their calendars recently, it’s 2016, and there has only been 0.85C of warming recovery since the end of the Little Ice Age in 1850, for a trend of 0.05C/decade….
In order to get an additional 1.15C of warming recovery within 14 years to meet the magical 2.0C by 2030, a warming trend of 0.82C/decade is required…
I don’t think so…..
Given that there hasn’t been a discernible global warming trend for 20 years, despite 30% of all manmade CO2 emissions since 1750 being made over just the last 20 years, the probability of a 0.82C/decade warming trend developing from CO2 forcing is essentially 0.00000000%….
From 2020: 1) the PDO will be 12 years into its 30-yr cool cycle, 2) the AMO will just be starting its 30-yr cool cycle and the weakest solar cycle since 1790 will just be getting ready to start…
How CO2 forcing will miraculously overwhelm all these cooling phenomena is not explained, other than by repeating the silly mantra, “it’s worse than we thought….because the models say so…”
CAGW is a disconfirmed hypothesis.. It’s dead… It doesn’t work..
You mean UQ, the home of John Cook bestie to La Lewnie?? !!!!
Wow, what authority!
I thought that study, like most in climate “science”, should have been published in the Journal of Irreproducible Results. http://www.jir.com/
” Second, implementation of internationally mandated CO2 emission controls are forecast to place serious constraints on fossil fuel use from ~2030 onward, raising energy security implications”
This is the real looming catastrophe. In the recent past wars have been fought over energy security. What will have happen this time?
Most of the world is tired of you shit dear “Its happening sooner than you think, actually we just need more grant money” department. Grow up, leave Uni and join the real world.
“a thoroughly validated dynamic econometric model is used to forecast global energy demand growth…”
“validated” huh? Man I bet the energy traders can’t wait to use that model and stop all their needless speculation.
Do these people actually think?
If there were such a model, it would change the world of trading. But the world of energy trading continues as it has – so whatever model they have, it isn’t validated.
Is it possible to farm in southern Greenland yet? If not, we are not yet as warm as the Midieval Warm, so this is no big deal even if true.