Dr. Roger Pielke Sr. directs me to this new forecast product from NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL). If it holds, it suggests a big cooling event ahead.
NOAA/ESRL PSD and CU CIRES Forecast in Global Tropics Domain
LIM forecasts of SST anomalies based on November-December-January 2015-2016 initial conditions. Contour interval is 0.3 degrees C. For numerical values click here.
Source: http://esrl.boulder.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/sstlim/for4gl.html
He adds:
https://twitter.com/RogerAPielkeSr/status/700688040713277445
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In one of the earlier post, I noted the fact that every El Nino peak, there will be dips before and after the peak. The current dip will be in 2016; but some of the articles presented here made forecasts saying that 2016 will be still warmer.
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy
See http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/04/05/the-1998-super-el-nino-possibly-a-rouge-wave/
(Rogue, not rouge….)
http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3619/3412046436_cca5a0139a.jpg
Looks like this wave is rouge too, as in red.
NOAA Nino 3.4 forecast:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/nino34.rescaling.ENSMEAN.png
I’m not gonna lie. I really hope there’s a strong La Nina followed by and either years of cooling or extension of the “Pause”.
I hope this for no reason other than I enjoy watching the alarmists squirm when they are proven wrong.
The brutality of global cooling I would wish on no one. We know about the mass deaths of the Little Ice Age and in the Americas, this hammered the natives hard especially in the Southwest and California, for example. It was terribly cold in Europe, too. My own ancestors came to the New World during the Little Ice Age and settled in Albany, NY, where it was quite brutally cold. Brrr.
Yes I know. Should I feel guilty for hoping for global cooling? Maybe so. Here’s the problem: The warmists in charge of NOAA. GISS, etc are adjusting the data upwards and trying their best to discredit the non-biased satellite data. So just an extension of the pause may not be enough to disprove CAGW theory in the eyes of policy makers. What we really need, for the madness to end, is global cooling. Otherwise I’m afraid we’ll all spend the rest of our lives being saddled with ever increasing carbon taxes, bad politics, and having to hear endless hand-waving about how we are destroying the planet.
Yes, JSG, this is a question over which I’ve agonized for years. Pretty clearly, only cooling will quell the madness, and probably only fairly dramatic cooling. But that may mean that the recovery from the LIA is over, and then we’ll have big problems.
If only we’d stuck to science we’d probably have a pretty good idea by now of what to expect. As it is, this extraordinary popular delusion of catastrophe has only damaged and hampered us.
====================
Worse perhaps, than all of the taxes, which are of course economy crushing and brutal, may be the massive killing of birds which will result if the build-out of wind turbines proceeds as the lunatics have planned.
Extinct birds will get no second chance.
If NOAA is right, this El Niño will end up being shorter than the “Great” El Niño of 1997-1998. As Mark mentioned previously, the current El Niño started out higher than the Great El Niño and has not risen as much. Also the Great El Niño was warmest in the far eastern tropical Pacific, whereas the current El Niño has been warmer in the central tropical Pacific. The Great El Niño also had somewhat of a double peak with a secondary peak in February 1998. The way temperatures have been dropping in the tropical Pacific, it does not look like the current El Niño will have a major secondary peak. Below is a comparison of NOAA’s Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) for the current and Great El Niño events:
And here is the RSS TLT anomaly comparison:
So even though the current El Niño seems to be in decline, the TLT anomalies may continue to rise for another month or two before they fall.
Using the Anchovy-fishing proxy,Mathis was not an El Niño, but something else…
Did their forecast take a lot of smart people and computer modeling.
Didn’t almost everyone know it was likely y to be very similar to the same switcheroo that happened from 97 to 98?
http://www.weather.gov/ict/enso
If a strong cooling La Niña does occur, will they report temperatures as they are? Or will they adjust the temperature record upward to compensate so they don’t have to explain the lack of warming? I fear they’ll do the latter because they can always correct the data in a few years when they need to cool the past to make the present appear warmer. They’ve gotten away with it so far, so why wouldn’t they continue down that road?
It is irrelevant Louis, this is Climate-Change, this is what we predicted. I hope you can see that now. T is a parameter and twiddling parameters is gangs of fun.
Your Supreme Overlord
The Russians have basically said “The only significant warming trend we have witnessed here is in the GISS and NOAA adjusted data.” I hope Putin will call on one his ministers to publicly display the Epic Scientific Fraud the NOAA warmists are perpetrating by showing the raw temp data versus the “smoothed” fantasy “data”. He is one person with the balls and platform to call out the Rats in our (western) esteemed institutions. With anti-Obama rhetoric in Russia reaching a fevered pitch, he could stoke the fire. Poster spotted in Moscow yesterday featuring O’s face finishing a cigarette (or joint?) “Smoking kills more people than Obama. Please don’t smoke.”
Two comments on this prediction
“Experimental NOAA/ESRL PSD and CU CIRES Forecast in Global Tropics Domain” — note “experimental”. It is not the NOAA forecast.
Over the years there have been many attempts to make models that forecast through the “spring barrier”. I suggest caution until there is evidence that this can do so.
Here is the current ENSO model plume:
http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/?enso_tab=enso-iri_plume
Frankly, this misinformation and misrepresentation of facts is criminal! How can these people sleep at night?
As far as I remember a month ago the sea ice graphs showed an average to slightly higher ice coverage on both poles. How the hell do they get away with this. I hope Lamar recalls the panel asap and finds out what is happening but I doubt with the ever ongoing election gong show these days that will not happen! ( Bread and games! It is disgusting!).
“As far as I remember a month ago the sea ice graphs showed an average to slightly higher ice coverage on both poles. ” That is because you are remembering the wrong Arctic graph. Arctic sea ice extent has been low for well over a month. Have a look at the WUWT sea ice page.
seaice1
junk science puts the loss in the arctic into proper perspective-
last graph
“Finally, here’s what the situation looks like with the proper scale on the y-axis:”
http://junkscience.com/2016/02/arctic-sea-ice-panic-its-all-about-the-scale/
“Panic over. There’s plenty of ice”
+ a very very large number!
What is it with you guys and that “proper scale ” thing? Some points:
1) The graph shown is January. If you put September with the “proper” scale, starting at zero, it would have dropped from nearly 8 to under 4. That would look significant.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/extent/sea-ice/N/9
2) There is no reason why all graphs should start at zero as long as the axes are labelled.
3) Having said that, I do not think the bar chart way of displaying the data is a good if the axis is not at zero. Plotting the points is better. I would not plot it that way.
seaice1
Arctic sea ice numbers in winter never have been very relevant. Just meteorology. The numbers that matter are in August-September.
Historically, abnormally warm El Ninos (like the current one) are followed by abnormally cool La Nina cycles, so it’s logical to assume this cycle will be no different.
The PDO started its 30-yr cool cycle in 2008, which should add to the coming La Niña cooling effect.
The AMO 30-yr warm cycle is also winding down, and should switch to its 30-yr cool cycle in about 4 years.
To add insult to injury, the current solar cycle already peaked and is now the weakest (in its current phase) in about 200 years….
Because of the lapse rate, RSS/UAH global TLT anomalies will likely continue to rise for a few more months and then start falling from early summer and continue to do so for at least the next 2~3 years…
The coming La Niña cooling will eventually offset the 2014~16 El Niño spike and the flat/falling global temp trend will extend to 23 years, with the disparity between CAGW projections vs. reality exceeding 3+ standard deviations by around 2020— at the same time the current solar cycle will be at its weakest point, and around when the AMO switches to its 30-yr cool cycle…
Alarmist will have a lot of explaining to do over the next 4 years… It should be very entertaining and eye-roll inducing to see what excuses and data fiddling they come up with to explain the utter failure of their failed hypothesis.
they will switch from CO2 induced warming to CO2 induced cooling… that simple. you know CO2 is the “holy molecule that does even more then a God can do”
/sarc
It is very interesting to speculate on the earth’s thermostat or, part of it anyhow.
La Nina, yep there’s one coming, it’s a cyclical fing innit?
Now that they’ve again “fixed it” doctoring the T data figures upwards, when mama Gaia hits the ‘cold button’ what will be the result………..will they call it a “severe La Nina” and how will anyone be able to tell anyway……oh erm………… yeah, satellite remote sensing, duh?
What I am still waiting for, is an explanation of how all this oceanic known unknowns, the conveyor, SSTs, disappearing heat – ties in with man made CO₂ emissions – because! Gavin Schmidt et al say it is?
Wow and wow again.
There is very large Cold Blob moving in the equatorial under-current at 150 metres depth that is the basis of this La Nina forecast. [The equatorial under-current flows to the East, which is opposite to the equatorial surface which flows to the West driven by the Trade Winds. Think of it as one big loop.]
Equatorial Cross-section, Pacific in the middle pane.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/pent_gif/xz/movie.temp.0n.gif
But the Cold Blob will have to fight its way through a lot of warm water left-over in the eastern Pacific to turn into a La Nina later in the year. It will likely just get moderated and warmed back up by this warm water, just like what happened to the developing 2014 El Nino which fizzled out to nothing as the cold water left over moderated it. This is why there is not just a simple year-to-year switch from El Nino to La Nina back to El Nino. It takes a build-up that can last several years for a good El Nino or La Nina to break out.
Top 300 metres average temp anomaly.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/pent_gif/xy/movie.h300.gif
Bill,
As usual, thanks for your professional data-supported response.
…If Canada gets any colder, it will no longer be known as ” The Great White North “, it will suddenly be known as ” The Great Northern Popsicle ” and Canadians will start flooding across the border by the millions ! Lucky for me I’m half American !
Maybe you could adopt Ted Cruz, then he will be partly American too!
By the way, I was kidding.
KIDDING!
(Everyone knows one adult can not legally adopt another adult.)
Not true! My wife and I adopted a girl in state care after she turned 18 because there was a lot more red tape had we done it sooner. It turned out to be a good deal with scholarship funding, as they looked at her financial status while in state care, not after she turned 18.
—-
At least Ted Cruz has the best understanding of the climate scam of the major candidates.
In south-east Australia we’ve already experienced a cool summer: the second week of February in most years is well into the forties (Celsius) but this year it didn’t rise above the twenties.
I like to zoom out instead of pick comparative analogue years. Why? Because regardless of analogue years informing us of initiation conditions, what might change this time around? Long term patterns can provide information that potentially adjusts our prediction. Looking at trends I am thinking this next La Nina won’t be as strong as those that occurred in the first half of the last century. While there is a difference between these two metrics (ONI versus MEI), they both demonstrate a diminution in La Nina events compared to earlier in the traces.
http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/
I can also conjecture that it is plausible to think of recharging deficits in light of strong discharging El Nino’s depleting ocean stores of heat.
I also question the El Nino biased notion that El Nino oscillations are the one we should be most concerned about. Maybe we need to be measuring La Nina oscillations as the metric of climate disrupting concern. If we can predict an oscillation of La Nina’s, we can better prepare for it. Otherwise we focus on preparing for an oscillation of plenty, which is what El Nino brings with its crop-favoring precipitation.
Put another way, if we bemoan an unprepared for devastating period of predominate La Nina’s, we have only ourselves to blame for our El Nino lion focus while pretty much ignoring the pride of lionesses that wait to devour us.
This plus serious consideration of Powell’s unheeded warnings to the “rain follows the plow” crowd would go a long way to improve quality of life for those of us who live in the Western US.
With all due respect, both Scripps and JAMSTEC have been way ahead of US products on this matter
http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~pierce/elnino/pictures.html
I have been pushing what Scripps has been saying since fall. as they are way ahead on this
Why is the science community so into NOAA. Their NCEP models have glaring convective feedback problems that render them useless week 2 and beyond if they are not in agreement with non NCEP consensus. I continue to marvel how how things that are seen in other circles, finally show up on a NOAA site and all of a sudden people snap to attention, The fact is that there is much out there, and SCRIPPS, along with JAMSTEC is far ahead of calling these events than NOAA CFSV2,
But if you are going to sing the La nina tune, its a remake of the tune Scripps has been singing for several months! And NOAA models are not the best singer anyway
Goldminor, when the multidecadal NAO is negative or going negative I believe it dries the air in the Pacific Northwest. May mitigate your flood thesis.
El Ninito, in spite of some impressive Nino numbers during the Fall, was a squib. At least here in California it was. Time to get your xeriscaping on. We’re going to be doing rationing for the foreseeable future.
The most interesting behavior regarding the worlds oceans are not actually the ENSO, but the AMO and the significant cooling oceans/seas all over the world away from the Tropics. This trend has not occurred previously during a El Nino since the last fairly strong El Nino back in 1972/73. When the ENSO becomes negative with a La Nina in future and these other cooling trends remain, there could even be signs of a step down in global temperatures. Nobody thought a step down in global temperatures could be possible after a strong El Nino, until I described on here a few months ago the signs of this possibility. These signs are starting to look more likely, but also cautious as there is very little research on this. There is also a possibility that the warming from the recent strong El Nino could eventually disrupt the cooling oceans away from the Tropics leading to a weakening of the cooling at least temporary.
The continued upwelling of cold water in the North Atlantic ocean next to the North Atlantic Drift (NAD) is worrying and could be more than just a AMO switch. This recent trend has been cooling the whole North Atlantic ocean surface and spreading further NE cooling the AMOC with it, but remaining strong in intensity at its source. The signs all support a huge swing in Arctic sea ice in the near future and the alarmists will be very worried about this.
Further possibilities are this cold upwelling is a branch off the deep cold ocean Labrador current and this needs researching immediately. The cold 50-200 m deep ocean temperatures forming in the Tropics between 120E and 120W also show La Nina likely on its way to this planet soon.
Reblogged this on Climate Collections and commented:
Excellent post and comments by Allan MacRae:
CHALLENGE QUESTION – FIRST POSTED 16FEB2016
WHEN WILL GLOBAL COOLING START?
I am saying it is not a “Pause”, it is a Plateau, and naturally-caused global cooling will start soon.
Regards to all, Allan
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/02/15/weekly-climate-and-energy-news-roundup-215/comment-page-1/#comment-2146382
This post on SC24 is interesting:
http://notrickszone.com/2016/02/10/solar-report-january-2016-current-solar-cycle-quietest-in-almost-200-years-as-triple-whammy-approaches/#sthash.tRQqXhWz.IVP32gMG.dpbs
Question: When will global cooling start?
In 2002 we wrote that global cooling would start by 2020 to 2030.
We now say global cooling will start before 2020, probably by 2017.
[Definition: The commencement of global cooling is deemed to start when the Lower Tropospheric (LT) temperature anomaly as measured by UAH satellite data starts to decline below the +0.2C anomaly and the trend then declines further.]
http://www.drroyspencer.com/latest-global-temperatures/
Bragging rights to whoever gets it right.
===========================
Allan MacRae February 22, 2016 at 2:35 am
Post Script:
I hope to be wrong about global cooling, because humanity suffers greatly in a cooling world. The current Excess Winter Mortality Rate equals about 100,000 deaths per year in the USA, up to 50,000 in the UK and several million worldwide, even in warm climates. There is NO significant Excess Summer Mortality Rate.
A few more thoughts to consider:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/02/10/the-profiteers-of-climate-doom/comment-page-1/#comment-2143323
and
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/06/13/presentation-of-evidence-suggesting-temperature-drives-atmospheric-co2-more-than-co2-drives-temperature/
Observations and Conclusions:
1. Temperature, among other factors, drives atmospheric CO2 much more than CO2 drives temperature. The rate of change dCO2/dt is closely correlated with temperature and thus atmospheric CO2 LAGS temperature by ~9 months in the modern data record
2. CO2 also lags temperature by ~~800 years in the ice core record, on a longer time scale.
3. Atmospheric CO2 lags temperature at all measured time scales.
4. CO2 is the feedstock for carbon-based life on Earth, and Earth’s atmosphere and oceans are clearly CO2-deficient. CO2 abatement and sequestration schemes are nonsense.
5. Based on the evidence, Earth’s climate is insensitive to increased atmospheric CO2 – there is no global warming crisis.
6. Recent global warming was natural and irregularly cyclical – the next climate phase following the ~20 year pause will probably be global cooling, starting by ~2020 or sooner.
7. Adaptation is clearly the best approach to deal with the moderate global warming and cooling experienced in recent centuries.
8. Cool and cold weather kills many more people than warm or hot weather, even in warm climates. There are about 100,000 Excess Winter Deaths every year in the USA and about 10,000 in Canada.
9. Green energy schemes have needlessly driven up energy costs, reduced electrical grid reliability and contributed to increased winter mortality, which especially targets the elderly and the poor.
10. Cheap, abundant, reliable energy is the lifeblood of modern society. When politicians fool with energy systems, real people suffer and die. That is the tragic legacy of false global warming alarmism.
Allan MacRae, Calgary, June 12, 2015