Change in sea surface temperature anomalies in the last month; courtesy NOAA
This naturally occurring oceanic cycle that produces warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean began in earnest early in 2015 and strengthened throughout the year to comparable intensity levels of the strong El Nino episodes of 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 although the warmest region relative-to-normal set up in somewhat different locations. El Nino has had widespread consequences around the world and will continue to do so in the near future. By later this year, colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures are quite likely to appear in the tropical Pacific Ocean as predicted by multiple computer forecast models and this flip to La Nina will also have extensive consequences around the world.
Rapidly changing SST anomalies
The latest sea surface temperature anomalies show noticeable changes from just one month ago across the tropical Pacific Ocean (above). Specifically, while the sea surface temperatures in that region are still above-normal, they are noticeably less so than just four weeks ago. This trend should continue over the next few months as sea surface temperatures drop off rapidly in the equatorial region of the Pacific Ocean.
– See more at: http://www.thegwpf.com/the-collapse-of-el-nino-is-underway/#sthash.ms5DlDgW.dpuf
The collapse of El Nino in the tropical Pacific Ocean has begun and it will be rather dramatic. The current strong El Nino event reached its peak intensity level in December 2015 and all indications suggest it will completely flip to La Nina conditions by later this year. One of the important consequences of the current strong El Nino event in the equatorial Pacific Ocean was a spike in global temperatures. However, if recent history is any guide, expect global temperatures to drop sharply after La Nina conditions become well-established in the tropical Pacific Ocean – likely during 2017 and perhaps beyond. –Paul Dorian, Vencore Weather, 5 February 2016
source: TheGWPF
UPDATED to include missing content that didn’t get sent in the first posting, due to a weak Internet connection during my flight,
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Are we sure El Niño is on its way out? I thought “homogenization” techniques had advanced to being able to just erase those facts which are inconvenient to the cause.
The NOAA El Nino CO2 Temperature Stock Market Collapse on the way!
Ha ha 🙂
This El Nino did nothing for Southern California except for the three storms we got and high surf/wind. Meanwhile, in Northern California they got all the storms and average to higher then normal snow pack. Which is a good thing for California’s drought problem but it still may not be enough as 2016 goes. I just wish there was a little bit more of an El Nino like the 97/98 one and all the “hype” from our favorite media was for naught.
It matters a lot where the warm water is distributed in the Pacific. This determines where the Pacific Highs and Lows form in the winter and where the jet streams that transport the water form. Some El Niño’s have a lot of warm water next to South America and some more out in the middle of the Pacific. They are all a little different.
http://cdec.water.ca.gov/cgi-progs/products/PLOT_ESI.pdf
Another big difference between the 97/98 Super El Niño event and the large 2015/16 El Niño is that the PDO already entered its 30-year cool cycle in 2008, conversely, the 97/98 Super El Niño occurred just after the PDO 30-year warm cycle peaked.
The 2nd and 3rd strongest back-to-back solar cycles (1976~1996) in thousands of years ended just prior to the 97/98 El Niño event, which may have also contributed its strength. Since we’re currently in the tail end of the weakest solar cycle since 1906, this also may contribute further cooling during the coming La Niña event.
Moreover, The AMO 30-yr warm cycle is also approaching its end, and will switch to a 30-yr cool cycle from around 2020…
Historically, strong El Niño events are followed by abnormally cold and long La Niña events, which will very likely occur during the coming La Niña.
I really would not like to be an alarmist over the next 5 years…. It should be very entertaining to see what excuses they come up with to account for the massive failure of CAGW projections.
The alarmists are already in Contempt of Congress for not turning over KARL(2015) internal e-mails, so they can’t risk trying to pull off further “adjustments” to raw temp data….
We’re quickly approaching the end of the biggest and most expensive scientific scam in human history… It can’t end soon enough…
The concatenation of cooling phases of the oceanic oscillations, and the Cheshire Cat sunspots.
========
Kim– it’s well known that PDO 30–year warm/cool cycles follow global warming/cooling trends almost perfectly:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1850/to:1880/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1850/to:1880/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1880/to:1921/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1880/to:1921/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1921/to:1943/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1921/to:1943/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1943/to:1977/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1943/to:1977/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1977/to:2005/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1977/to:2005/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2005/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2005/trend
It’s also hypothesized by many astrophysicist and climatologists that solar cycles influence climate.
We’ll soon be able to test these solar cycle hypotheses during the coming weak solar solar cycles, which may eventually culminate in another Grand Solar Minimum starting from around 2030…
It’s also curious that the strongest 63-string of solar cycles in 11,400 years occurred from 1933~1996 and when these strong solar cycles ended, so did the global warming trend…
Yes, one must avoid post hoc ergo propter hoc logical fallacies, but a correlation does exist.
as samurai says ,about all we do really know is warming is a predictor of cooling and vice versa. what goes up always eventually comes down.
As the real world evidence of warming evaporates, the warmists will actually reach for ever more fantastic and ridiculous pseudo-evidence to prop up their dead friend, AGW. Mark my words, it will get crazier before it gets better.
If this proves to be the collapse in this El Nino then it will be a second triumph for NOAA and its models. They correctly predicted that this would be one of the three strongest — not an extraordinary record-breaker. And in November their models predicted a collapse now.
Details: http://fabiusmaximus.com/2015/12/09/godzilla-el-nino-update-91794/
NOAA is well below the Mendoza line in their batting average.
David,
Your evidence, please.
Natural “Global Cooling” and a ferocious U.S Hurricane Season for Fall 2016.
So drought appears to be returning to the US already. Texas is behind on rain. Houston had a fire hazard warning due to dry conditions this week.
SOI also growing.
https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/
“Computer model forecasts suggest a dramatic flip to La Nina
Two independently-made computer forecast models depict a dramatic change in sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean between now and late 2016. The first forecast map shown above comes from the Japan Meteorological Agency and it predicts big changes in SST anomalies between the March/April/May and September/October/November time periods. The warmer-than-normal SSTs in the tropical Pacific Ocean (red region) reverse to colder-than-normal (blue region) conditions by this fall. A second model generated by the Scripps Institute of Oceanography provides support to this flip as it also shows a dramatic change from El Nino conditions (yellow, orange) in the spring to La Nina (blue, green) conditions by the upcoming fall and winter seasons (below).”
http://static1.squarespace.com/static/56530521e4b0c307d59bbe97/t/56b4d56845bf2170a04392ca/1454691695587/?format=750w
http://www.vencoreweather.com/blog/2016/2/5/1200-pm-the-collapse-of-el-nino-is-underway