Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to forecasters, Britain is bracing for extreme winter conditions which might last for months, as falling temperatures turn torrential rain into severe blizzards.
Arctic SNOWBOMB to smash into Britain: Coldest winter in 58 YEARS now just days away
BRITAIN faces WEEKS of freezing blizzards, crippling snowfall and brutal winter storms as a savage turn in the weather plunges the ENTIRE COUNTRY into winter lockdown.
Blistering Polar gales, several feet of snow and near-record low temperatures will grind the country to a standstill until MARCH, forecasters warn.
The first taste of what could be a historic whiteout arrived this weekend blanketing parts of Scotland and Yorkshire in thick snow.
A dramatic change in atmospheric conditions will drag a plume of freezing air from the North Pole across Britain through this week.
…
Piers Corbyn, forecaster for WeatherAction, said: “There is a significant change in the weather on the way.
“The jet stream, which has so far remained north over the UK, is about to make a sharp southwards turn allowing an Arctic air to sweep Britain.
“The British Isles will be locked into an Arctic airflow for at least the next five days.”
…
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said the end of winter could rival the shocker of 1962/63 – one of the coldest on record.
He said the weather will also be driven by a slow-down of the Gulf Stream which has led to cooler waters around the UK.
He said: “We could see a much colder period until March with a multitude of snow events after snow events in response to low pressure systems clashing with the almost stagnated and cooler air that will be in place across the British Isles.
No doubt if this weather forecast proves to be accurate, alarmists will blame the versatile CO2 molecule for extreme blizzard conditions and snowfall.
El Nino has an important role in shaping Europe’s winter, but, since there was mentioned 1962/1963 winter, I would also like to come with another perspective on this subject, meaning the resultant rain due to war, in 1940, which you can read here: http://www.2030climate.com/a2005/02_31-Dateien/02_31.html. You could also read many articles, on that site, about the way that war affected the weather in many other countries, from all around the world.
Statistically; El Niño has no consistent effect on the UK or Europe. The cold winters of 47 and 63 did not occur with similar nino conditions. The severe winter of 56 also happened in a different phase of nino. 55/6 moderate La Nina. 55/6 neutral going to weak nina. 46 weak el nino. More often than not bad winters in europe have no correlation to el or la nino/a
The exception to that is the combination of a negative ENSO coinciding with a solar minimum. Recent examples of that on the west coast of the US were the winters of 1996/97, 1964/65, 1955/56 and 1946/47. There are more examples from the past.
That theory may explain the “hunger winter” 1944-45 as it was after the D-Day invasion and the eventual fall of Hitler 10 months later.
I walked upon the FROZEN over Thames in the winter of 1963 with my parents at Walton bridge …… I would love to do that again ……. Now living in wet & windy SoCal …….. !!!
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3394247/Environment-Agency-boss-QUITS-admitting-t-Britain-time-critics-blast-staying-Barbados-Christmas-flooding-crisis.html
What a moron
“Children just won’t know what snow is!”
Dr. David Viner, 2000
That article has been erased and the claim was never made.
Your name has been added to the list of ideological criminals.
You will be collected from your home and sent for re-education.
Meanwhile David Viner has been given the job of supreme expert in control of climate prediction, infrastructure resilience and agricultural productivity.
Welcome to the new world order. Please enjoy your stay in a culturally appropriate manner.
Yes, Orwell’s 1984 is coming true.
It’s incredible to witness the formation of a mass-delusion in the popular mind.
It was so easy.
Terrifying thing X is causing effect Y.
Effect Y is defined broadly as everything and anything about the climate changing by any degree.
Thus the existence of terrifying thing X will always be proven, no matter what consequently happens.
Unless the climate does not change, which is more or less impossible.
Meanwhile a person who has a vague grasp of how natural variability influences weather patterns and climate will recognize from this Met Office page showing average January temperatures extending back to 1919 – that only natural variability is evident. The average now is the same as it was in 1925.
NOTHING HAS HAPPENED TO UK WINTER TEMPS!!!!
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/actualmonthly
With the AMO and solar cycles entering decadal declines, there will be plenty of opportunities to walk on water (ice) in coming winters.
Thanks Eric for the “news” about what our weather forecasters put out.
It should have read …
According to forecasters, Britain is bracing for extreme bullshit which might last for months, as falling interest rates turn rain into eco-lizards.
BRITAIN faces YEARS of bullshit, crippling borrowing and brutal court-room story telling as a savage turn in the Prince of Wales plunges the ENTIRE COUNTRY into laughter.
PS: I just can’t wait for the “snow events” !
Tobogganists everywhere rejoice.
Regards,
WL
Quit quoting James Madden/Exacta Weather and reporting his ‘forecasts’. The guy knows nothing about the weather. He just makes up ott nonsense to try and trick the gullible into paying for his ‘forecasts’.
Interesting as the AO is steeply, stupendously negative right now, significance unknown. One day Elvis will have a Bigfoot baby, like 2 months of snow and sleet. The discussion on AGW will unfortunately only come to a quick end with physical data like a long freeze hurting enough people to make them say we have had enough.
I hope the British Power system does have enough backup yo keep people safe.
“Within the hour, the temperature outside will fall to over 70 million degrees below zero!”
Randy Marsh, South Park “Two Days Before the Day After Tomorrow.”
Reblogged this on Public Secrets and commented:
Should this come to pass, it will of course be the fault of anthropogenic global warming, climate change, and the Dread Demon CO2, which can do anything. ANY-THING. (Say it after me, kiddies: “natural cycles.”)
It will be interesting to see if the Pacific Northwest gets a similar cold spell next winter as the UK is currently experiencing. I have noticed before what looks like a connection with a one year lag between the two seaboards.
Okay I fear I am the villain in all this on an earlier Thread of Eric Worrall I Posted the express link. I fear he picked up on it.(Professor Myles Allen: Normal Weather is a “Thing of the Past”
Guest essay by Eric Worrall )
I thought …. Okay I goofed. And I fear both Eric and I just did the “Wah Watusi” on our reproductive organs
If you followed my link Eric ,, sorry I Goofed.
michael duhancik
Meanwhile, the Surrey Mirror reports “Daffodils may normally be associated with the arrival of spring but some of the attractive blooms cropped up in the area shortly before Christmas” – and I have already seen spring daffs out locally (about 30 miles SW of London) myself. And these days we don’t seem to be getting the hard winters of my childhood, where snow lingered for weeks or sometimes months…
http://www.surreymirror.co.uk/Spring-flowers-come-early-Reigate/story-25824502-detail/story.html
Tim C
El Nino year. Warm. Weather. Meh.
Next winter will be abnormally cold if the expected “rebound” La Nina comes.
Other have probably already said this, but the Daily Express is a Newspaper that routinely lies regarding weather forecasts. It’s a tradition of theirs. If they are saying it will be a severely cold winter, then by default that is highly unlikely to happen or they would not have claimed it. It is difficult to explain to non UK citizens why some newspapers continually lie like this despite the evidence. I suppose the closest thing in the US would be to believe the National Enquirer reports on Elvis sighting which are along the same lines.
By the way, publishing nonsense like this has the potential to draw your website into disrepute.
Amongst whom ?
Anyone with an ounce of common sense and an interest in climate science.
I bet the brits will be baffled since they don’t any longer know what snow is!
[Comment deleted. Labeling others as “deniers” violates site policy. -mod.]
Madigan is the same talking head who wrote:
Starting with the industrial age, the anthropogenic input of CO2 has been meteoric and, over the previous 5 decades has been almost asymptotic, culminating in a 2013 concentration over 400 ppm…
Heh, get a load of that lame attempt to scare us. That jamoke doesn’t understand that all the available evidence shows that the rise in CO2 has been beneficial to the biosphere, and completely harmless. CO2 has risen by one (1) part in ten thousand over the past century, but some folks still want everyone to be alarmed.
That only leaves scare-by-assertion, the last gasp of the dwindling alarmist cult.
Madigan,
Since I’ve thrashed you in the thread with facts and evidence, your lame response is to try and get me to read some alarmist propaganda? Please.
See, reading that stuff doesn’t give you the answers in science, it just gives assertions and opinions. Like what you write. What matters in science are empirical facts, observations, evidence, and data.
They tell the story. And the story they tell is that the ‘dangerous AGW’ scare is just a hoax intended to pass carbon taxes, and amass political power.
Dummies don’t see that, but most readers here do. This site attracts the more intelligent readers. (Snark at this point is tempting… must… resist…)
dbstealey: Really, “CO2 has been beneficial to the biosphere, and completely harmless. CO2 has risen by one (1) part in ten thousand over the past century, but some folks still want everyone to be alarmed.”
So we should invent something that allows us to breathe CO2 since it’s so beneficial. Before we started emitting giga-tons of CO2 into the atmosphere, the system was in balance. That the CO2 concentration went from about 300 ppm at the turn of the 20th century to over 400 ppm now misses the larger point. It’s like saying, oh, they only ingested .5 microgram of Mercury and so, since the lethal dosage is 1 microgram there’s no need to worry, they’ll only get dreadfully sick but not die.
The problem with this analysis, db, is that with ongoing and unprecedented deforestation, the extra CO2 is not being abated but is increasing, so explain how unbalanced and foreign introduction of CO2 (foreign meaning anthropogenic) is beneficial to the biosphere. This idea may have a shred of truth and logic to it, if it weren’t for rampant deforestation. It’s nonsense to suggest that putting a balanced system out of balance and then claim that another system that was in tune with that system (the biosphere) and depends on it would somehow benefit from the imbalance, the new instability and the dramatic increase in that very substance that is causing the imbalance. Get it?
And where did you “thrash” me? Hardly, I just decided to not waste my time and moved on. The late, great George Carlin had great advice about arguing with certain types of individuals and I just took his advice.
And yes, I am interested in facts, observations, data and the scientific method and another key assessment tool, observation. You have to observe what’s happening in the real world beyond your spreadsheets. That book isn’t opinion and *is* based on science, written by real scientists.
Interesting that you refuse to read even an excerpt from that book. A certain caricature comes to mind of a large bird with its head in the sand.
Madigan needs to be schooled:
Before we started emitting giga-tons of CO2 into the atmosphere, the system was in balance.
The system is never in balance.
So we should invent something that allows us to breathe CO2 since it’s so beneficial.
Non sequitur nonsense.
the extra CO2 is not being abated but is increasing…
Good.
…so explain how unbalanced and foreign introduction of CO2 (foreign meaning anthropogenic) is beneficial to the biosphere.
I’ll explain, but you still won’t get it: CO2 is CO2, there’s no “foreign” CO2. But thanx for trying. The biosphere is thriving and expanding due directly to the added CO2. That isn’t even debatable any more. Agricultural yields are rising in lock-step with rising CO2 — which has been up to 20X higher in the past without ever causing a climate catastrophe.
…rampant deforestation…
Forest in the U.S. are increasing. There are more trees now than a century ago.
…the imbalance, the new instability…
Ha-ha! You really believe that?? The past century has been a true “Goldilocks” period, with global temperatures flatter than any comparable time frame in the geologic record. The tiny 0.7º wiggle in global T is so small that it’s questionable whether it even occurred. Just before our current Holocene, temperatures fluctuated by TENS of degrees — within only a decade or two. But the alarmist cult worries about ±0.7º over a century?? You folks exist in a separate bubble from rational skeptics.
…where did you “thrash” me?
That’s easy: you emit your opinions, while I post numerous sources and citations in my links. On this science site, baseless assertions lose.
…I am interested in facts, observations, data and the scientific method and another key assessment tool, observation.
I ‘observe’ that you can’t recall what I wrote.
Here are some facts you can ponder: there is nothing either unusual, or unprecedented happening with global temperatures — unless you consider the lack of variability to be unusual, and it is.
The alarmist cult has been flat wrong about every scary prediction they ever made. No exceptions. When someone is always wrong, reasonable people will begin to snicker at what they say. That’s what the public is doing. A few years ago a majority of comments in the general media expressed concern about AGW. No more! Now, most comments ridicule the scare.
The alarmist cult has boxed themselves in by doubling down on it. They don’t have facts, observations, data, or anything else on their side of the debate. And the scientific method? Alarmists don’t know what that is.
So now it’s real world evidence versus baseless assertions. Because that’s all you’ve got.
Hey Eric,
You should give up your current career as a climate blogger and start a new one as a graphic artist. Great Photoshop job on the UK (a la The Day After Tomorrow), leaving the island of Ireland all green and lush and the UK all frozen over. Brilliant!
Madigan doesn’t like reality. That pic is produced by MODIS in the UK — hardly a skeptics’ organization.
Given that the effects wouldn’t be hyper-selective, as is what is being suggested, the expectation would be that proximate landmasses would exhibit the same effects.
Pass me the George, bottle.
Unless the westerly, moist air collided into a blocking high over Britain/ east of the isle, over North Sea.
I remember that year snow covered pretty much all the GB. The really cold year prior to one in question had sea water turn to ice which would wash on shore. A truly insane situation given UK’s usual weather.
P.s. Ireland had plenty of snow that winter too.
The winter of ’62 is what convinced Callendar that his 1938 hypothesis of man-made global warming had been falsified. Of course, he thought AGW was a good thing, as did Arrhenius before him.
So did its advocates in the 1970s, when it was hoped that human activities might forestall the apparently rapidly approaching next ice age. Note that CO2 had been increasing since the end of WWII during these over 30 years of global cooling.