Guest essay by Eric Worrall
According to forecasters, Britain is bracing for extreme winter conditions which might last for months, as falling temperatures turn torrential rain into severe blizzards.
Arctic SNOWBOMB to smash into Britain: Coldest winter in 58 YEARS now just days away
BRITAIN faces WEEKS of freezing blizzards, crippling snowfall and brutal winter storms as a savage turn in the weather plunges the ENTIRE COUNTRY into winter lockdown.
Blistering Polar gales, several feet of snow and near-record low temperatures will grind the country to a standstill until MARCH, forecasters warn.
The first taste of what could be a historic whiteout arrived this weekend blanketing parts of Scotland and Yorkshire in thick snow.
A dramatic change in atmospheric conditions will drag a plume of freezing air from the North Pole across Britain through this week.
…
Piers Corbyn, forecaster for WeatherAction, said: “There is a significant change in the weather on the way.
“The jet stream, which has so far remained north over the UK, is about to make a sharp southwards turn allowing an Arctic air to sweep Britain.
“The British Isles will be locked into an Arctic airflow for at least the next five days.”
…
James Madden, forecaster for Exacta Weather, said the end of winter could rival the shocker of 1962/63 – one of the coldest on record.
He said the weather will also be driven by a slow-down of the Gulf Stream which has led to cooler waters around the UK.
He said: “We could see a much colder period until March with a multitude of snow events after snow events in response to low pressure systems clashing with the almost stagnated and cooler air that will be in place across the British Isles.
No doubt if this weather forecast proves to be accurate, alarmists will blame the versatile CO2 molecule for extreme blizzard conditions and snowfall.
yes it is the express…
but
for a change they quote Piers Corbyn
and hes worth a listen to, I find.
put it like this
hes more often correct than the “approved BBC” mob are
if he didnt get airtime and some warnings out.
and it does hit as badly as possible..then would the standard warmist shills normally reporting continue to say warmer etc till people froze?
anyone noted the low sunspots recently?
and the rise in biggish quakes yet again as it drops.
just sayin:-)
The headline and message are different from what Piers is quoted as saying. Piers is much more temperate in his language. This is vox pop in The Express, quoting out of context to feed the narrative.
People still slag the Met office off over one failed bbq summer headline several years ago. The truth is they have been staggeringly correct over recent years and have correctly forcast the string of mild, wet, windy winters the UK has been having. Piers has better success in the US, I’ll admit but certainly not the UK.
They haven’t! What about our three consecutive winters, especially 2010/2011! We were still there and lived through them!
According to the weather forecast websites (e.g. MeteoGroup) I have consulted daytime temperatures from South England up to Scotland remain above zero for the next two weeks.
Eric Worrall, which forecasters told you about extreme weather with record snowfall?
The Daily Express is owned by a Porrn King, who runs Television X and Red Hot TV. He also prints OK Magazine, while the Daily Express is twinned with the National Enquirer in the US.
The number of ‘winter whiteout’ predictions is matched by the number of sightings of Elvis, Blgfoot, and that B-29 that landed on the Moon. The Express readership is comprised of semi-literate readers who have recently mastered the alphabet and have outgrown the tlts and bums of the Red Top papers, and are looking for more cerebral articles on Blgfoot and Elvis.
I hear that the IPCC believe that the Express might be the ideal platform to promote their honest reports on climate.
Ralph
Two weeks forecast; (in Dutch): http://www.weer.nl/verwachting/14dagen/groot-brittannië/glasgow/18143323/
Shows one or two days of snow.
I see now: your source of information is the Daily Express. Can’t you do better?
I’ll have to see it to believe it. These forecasts have been made before. 2 feet of snow??
Well! my cider is still fermenting.
That’s out side under shelter.
Temperature is 42F.
Wish it would get colder or I am going to have to rack it a month earlier.
Who likes working out side in February?
Still its only 42 gallon. the answer to everything.
I just quote the met office:
“UK Outlook for Friday 15 Jan 2016 to Sunday 24 Jan 2016:
Remaining cold until at least the start of next week, with a mix of sunshine and wintry showers. The showers falling as sleet or snow at times, especially towards the north. Snow may settle at times just about anywhere, though mainly on higher ground. Widespread frosts expected morning and night, with the added risk of icy patches following wintry showers. From the middle of next week onwards, it looks as if the cold weather may gradually give way to somewhat milder and wetter conditions from the west, though confidence is low at this stage. With a westerly flow of air likely to become established by next weekend, the wettest weather then becomes more likely towards the northwest of the United Kingdom.
UK Outlook for Monday 25 Jan 2016 to Monday 8 Feb 2016:
The United Kingdom is most likely to lie within a predominantly westerly flow of air between low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south. So the weather looks set to be rather changeable with rain and hill snow at times, especially in the northwest. However, there is a reasonable chance of some longer dry spells due to a greater likelihood of high pressure, especially in the south. Overall, temperatures are expected to range from near to above average.
Updated at: 0133 on Mon 11 Jan 2016”
This boils down to: The article is horse feathers.
MF
Sorry, but I wouldn’t trust even the Met. Office past about five days or so.
“UK Outlook for Monday 25 Jan 2016 to Monday 8 Feb 2016:” – that which emanates from the southern-most end of a North-bound male bovid.
Actually (now) reading the ‘most likely’; ‘predominantly’; ‘looks set’; ‘a reasonable chance’; and ‘temperatures are expected to range from near to above average’, which covers all but Icebox Britain – they ‘may’ be within touching distance – or may not, I guess . . . .
But the general principle that trying to prognosticate/forecast/guess/imagine the weather in Britain, more than a few days [5 days is my opinion] beyond today is simply plucking numbers out of the ether.
Astrology with numbers.
And some of these – well, clowns form an honourable profession – wassocks, shall we say, are telling us about climate in fifty or eighty years – not hours, oh no , but y e a r s !!
Auto
Six weeks of whiteout and sub zero temperatures will again reinforce how serious climate change is.
The Met Office in the UK publishes calculated seasonal central England temperature records in degrees Celsius, based on figures from 1659 to the present.
Seasonal values are calculated from monthly data by averaging three-monthly values.
The winter months are December, January, and February. The warmest figures are always above 6C, but under 7C.
The years when values over 6C were recorded were 1686, 1734, 1834, 1869, 1935, 1975, 1989, 1990, 1998, 2007 and 2014.
As a point of further interest, average values of zero or below for these three months are hardly ever seen. We see -1.2C in 1684, -0.4 in 1740, and -0.3 in 1963,
I’m not expecting climatic Armageddon this year!
“As a point of further interest, average values of zero or below for these three months are hardly ever seen.”
That doesn’t really mean much. Winter 2010/11 was 3.13C but had the second coldest December on CET. The more extreme cold anomalies only tend to last a month or two.
ulriclyons: It’s nice to see that someone else looks at the CET! I’ve noticed is that some values have altered in the record. All the following values are in Celsius as published.
The 1947 year average was 9.57C in an earlier version, now it’s 9.65.
The 1955 value was 9.28, now it’s 9.33.
1969 was 9.26, now we see 9.32.
1971 was 9.68, now it’s 9.72.
For 2003,the value’s given as 10.54, but using my calculator I get10.5 exactly, and for 2006 I get 10.83, but the figure given is 10.87. Similar minor discrepancies are present in 2008 – I get 9.95, but the published figure is 9.97, and for 2013 the Met Office give 9.61, but I make the value 9.57.
Arguably trivial discrepancies, but why have the values changed?
The monthly values for the years 1947, 1955 and 1971 in this series:
http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/tcet.dat
are all identical to the original Manley values.
And 1969.
ulriclyons: thank you for the CET link. I’ve downloaded the figures, and will have a leisurely browse later.
I’ve rechecked the discrepancies I referred to in versions of the CET I downloaded in 2013 and earlier in 2015, and they’re definitely there.
ulriclyons: I’ve now had a look at the versions of the CET which I downloaded from the Met Office in 2012, 2013, and in April 2015.
The figures for 1947, 1955, 1969 and 1971 in the 2012 and 2013 versions agree, but the ones from April 2015 do not.
I note that the version you sent me has the annual averages to one decimal place.
When rounded to one decimal place, everything falls into agreement.
Why the version I downloaded in April 2015 has the discrepancies must seemingly remain a mystery!
Thank you again for your comments and interest.
This may help you..
https://xmetman.wordpress.com/2016/01/07/the-quest-to-find-central-england/
Carbon500
I wonder if it’s got something to do with monthly weighting. Some months are 30 days – some 31. February is 28 or 29.
ulriclyons and John Finn – thanks for your interesting link and comments respectively. I enjoyed having a look at the CET measuring sites.
I like to have a look at a spread of literature on the climate issue, and came across a brief description of the Kӧppen classification of climate in one of my meteorology textbooks. It was devised by a German climatologist, Wladimir Kӧppen (1846-1940). It’s apparently been the best known and most used climate classification system for decades, and describes the UK as having a humid middle latitude, mild winter or Marine West Coast (Cfb) type of climate.
What the Cfb coding means is that the average temperature of the coldest month is under 18⁰C and above -3⁰C.
No month is above 22⁰C, and at least four are over 10⁰C.
A range of temperatures – this is a welcome contrast to the pernickety arguments over fractions of a degree seen so often, and makes sense to me – since when do tiny temperature changes define climate?
Daniel Gabriel Fahrenheit produced his namesake temperature scale in 1724; Anders Celsius produced his scale (sign inverted) in 1742.
I have just checked the printout I have of the C.E.T from 1659 which I printed out on the 4/3/12 and it looks to have been adjusted upwards from 1659 onwards
Dave (UK) – thanks for your observation regarding your CET printout of 4/3/12. Unfortunately I don’t have an earlier copy to refer to. It’s seems a good idea to keep hard copies of such data to refer to. Why these ‘adjustments’ are necessary I fail to see – for example, hospitals don’t ‘correct’ or ‘adjust’ patients’ blood biochemistry results which are in their medical records from years ago!
It’s a balmy -10 degrees here in Butte MT, the Viking game was the third or sixth “depending on storyteller” coldest NFL game on record and as Steven Goddard says “we are in the hottest year ever”
The Express predicting Arctic blasts is on a par with The Guardian predicting warming / doom / end of civilisation.
Whilst we’ve clearly moved into a cooler airstream (snow / frost in Southern Scotland over the weekend) that looks set to last for a couple of weeks, there’s no imminent signs of catastrophe. But these things can be very localised – Scotland’s mountains had near-record snowfall last winter yet we saw almost none 100 miles away…
UK Met Office: Current alert level: Level 2 – Alert and Readiness
Issued at: 0950 on Mon 11 Jan 2016
There is a 80 % probability of severe cold weather with icy conditions and wintry showers between 0900 on Monday 11 Jan and 0900 on Sunday 17 Jan in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust’s emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.
With a north to northwesterly flow developing on the 11th and 12th January Arctic air is forecast to spread to northern areas at first, and across the whole of England later…etc
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert
CHAOS, you forgot the CHAOS!
You also forgot the Monday Mirthiness! It needs exclamation marks too!!!
NAO has gone negative for the first time in months, temperatures have dropped a bit, forecast models started predicting a little snow and frost here and there and the Express went full retard with ‘worst winter in decades’ – for the zillionth time. NAO is about to bounce back up, so expect them to go a bit quiet for a few weeks until the next merest hint of proper winter weather presents itself.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif
jessop ?
Er, yes, that’s me!
Er, yes, that’s me!
It’s so cold in Canada, our bridges are splitting…Eastern Canada cut off from Western Canada..
http://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/intense-cold-splits-brand-new-bridge-strands-canadians-/62165/
And it’s only 2 years old !!
2 months, I think.
They reopened one lane today.
Probably designed by the rare critter known as an AGW convinced engineer. GK
The european medium range shows no such weather. A short cold spell with snow over high ground then gales and rain over scotland and northern england with sun and possible frost in the south
I’m a Canadian, and I was seconded to Britain in 1962. I worked there for over a year, and I can tell you, the winter of 62/63 was brutally cold. Our house didn’t have central heating and it wasn’t insulated at all. We had a fireplace in the living room, and one of my kids nearly caught fire when he attempted to move too close to the flames. I spent hours with a torch trying to thaw the water pipes which were installed unprotected on the outer walls. The British are a hardy people. They can take a lot of punishment without complaining. Children could be seen walking to school in shorts with their bare legs red from the cold. Those greenies who think warmer is bad and colder is good, beware! You might get what you ask for.
Yes, my boarding school finally wrote to our parents asking them to send long trousers. We were very grateful when they arrived. the sports field was frozen solid so we went on long walks round Bournemouth in our ‘crocodile’.
…Are you really that stupid or are you just practicing to be a liberal politician ???
Oops..ignore the above….
I remember the early 1960’s in Tucson when the rain fell in winter, not summer and it flooded everything and I couldn’t go to school due to the bridges being closed and then it also snowed. Just like this winter in Arizona is wetter than normal.
According to forecasters… daily excess… ’nuff said
If it comes true I’ll expect to see headlines on the BBC, Guardian & Independent newspaper, saying ‘experts’ say… expect more of these wild swings in these extreme winter temps because of climate change ‘so say we all’
Piers Corbyn bags this report in the Express.
He directs readers to look for actual quotes before taking reports on board.
https://weatheraction.wordpress.com/2016/01/11/piers-corbyn-world-weather-is-now-developing-faster-into-grim-new-era/#more-5860
However the ‘grim new ere’. is not due to CO2, it appears to be innocent, but in his opinion, to changes in the Sun.
‘It appears world weather is now developing faster into this grim new era – which depends on specific confirmed and predictable solar activity developments and lunar modulation of sun-earth connections. Related to this, what is happening in the stratosphere is now more crucial and that changes some forecast options’.
UK Forecasts
Colder
http://www.weathercast.co.uk/weather-news/news/ch/ee538cfd86510ca99a56d60f2ec944d9/article/colder_weather_on_the_way-1.html
Met Office suggests nothing out of ordinary
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast
The Gruniad goes for cold
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jan/10/weather-snow-frost-expected-britain-big-chill
Then there’s this lot
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=
I was hoping for a bikini babe with this one..
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/486173/Uk-weather-snowbomb-cold-freezing-arctic-winds-blizzards-storms-Britain-forecast
Time will tell
So much for British children not knowing what snow is.
This is a very plausible prediction regarding the near future.
As standards in UK state education steadily decline, we should anticipate that children will not know what a greater and greater number of things, actually are.
In addition, it’s not our business to know what snow is. Knowing what snow is, is best left to the official “experts”. “Experts” who have received the minimum level of mandatory training and hold a currently valid certificate to demonstrate their entitlement to claim to know what things are. Most children should have understood this important point by the time they leave school. (sarc)
How well do offshore windmills installations stand up to ice floes? We’ll find out over the next few years as the AMO rolls over and down.
I wonder how well the blades on the windmills react to ice buildup. I would expect a large imbalance and having to shutdown the windmill farm. Just when you need the power to keep warm.. bummer