Here is some good news for drought-stricken California; the latest forecast model output from WeatherBell suggests that the Sierra Nevada snow-pack will get a fresh dump of up to 10 feet of snow. The Sierra snow-pack has already been reported as above normal (at 136 percent of normal) in the most recent snow survey conducted by the California Department of Water Resources.
DWR Director Mark Cowin said the heavy snowfall so far during Water Year 2016 “has been a reasonable start, but another three or four months of surveys will indicate whether the snowpack’s runoff will be sufficient to replenish California’s reservoirs by this summer.”
Each water year begins on October 1 and ends on the following September 30. DWR conducts five media-oriented snow surveys in the Sierra Nevada each winter – near the first of January, February, March, April and May – at the Phillips Station plot (elevation 6,800 feet) just off Highway 50 near Sierra-at-Tahoe Road 90 miles east of Sacramento. Frank Gehrke, chief of the California Cooperative Snow Surveys Program, said more than four years of drought have left a water deficit around the state that may be difficult to overcome in just one winter season.
“Clearly, this is much better that it was last year at this time, but we haven’t had the full effect of the El Niño yet,” Gehrke said. “If we believe the forecasts, then El Niño is supposed to kick in as we move through the rest of the winter. That will be critical when it comes to looking at reservoir storage.” The state’s largest six reservoirs currently hold between 22 percent (New Melones) and 53 percent (Don Pedro) of their historical averages in late December. Storage in Lake Shasta, California’s largest surface reservoir, is 51 percent of its December 30 average. [The December 30th] manual survey found a snow depth of 54.7 inches – 16 inches more than the average depth measured there since 1965 – and 16.3 inches of water content, 136 percent of the January 1 average for that site.
This forecast is to be expected, thanks to an El Niño pattern this winter which has already brought much needed precipitation to California. Storms are already stacked up in an west-to-east line as indicated by this satellite image:
This series of Pacific storms will bring more significant rain and heavy mountain snows starting today, not just to California, but much of the west:
The latest GFS forecast model has snowfall totals racking up to 10 feet over the next 10 days, and widespread amounts over 4 feet elsewhere in the Sierra and Siskiyou mountain ranges:
On top of that, there is more good news. The months ahead (January-March) are usually the busiest winter storm period for the West Coast. This graphics based on the fall forecast from NOAA might need to be upgraded a bit:
I can remember El Niño years where we have been in a drought situation and a “March miracle” occurred, literally filling reservoirs in a space of a week. That might be possible again with this good head start.
Of course, whether it is good news or bad news for California’s water year, I’m sure “climate change” will get the blame.
It is instructive to keep in mind that decades-to-century scale droughts have been part of California’s landscape (see below) long before “global warming” was a glimmer in Al Gore’s eye.
“I can remember El Niño years where we have been in a drought situation and a “March miracle” occurred …”
2010-2011 wasn’t an El Niño winter, yet a “March Miracle” came and the Tahoe region of the Sierra Nevada received a record snowfall total in many locations. For example Squaw Valley resort recorded over 800 inches of snowfall. Here’s a telling map of western snowpack “water equivalent” on 1 May 2011:
http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/westwide/snowpack/wy2011/snow1105.gif
This year the total received at Squaw by Jan 1 is over 100″ less than the 2010/2011 season and only a little above ‘average’, but the amount still on the ground is above average and steeper terrain has opened as early as ever. The current pattern is for small amounts (few inches to a foot) in a series of storms. It would be real nice if I could ski Main Chute on July 4’th again, or even Chute 75 on Memorial Day, but for that we need the big, heavy wet storms more typical of El Nino’s and which make a long lasting base, which we haven’t really had.
10′ seems optimistic for the current sequence of storms by the weekend, but the expected 3-5 feet above 8000′ and about half this at lake level is still good and will push us towards an above average season.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Tahoe+City&state=CA&site=REV&lat=39.1924&lon=-120.22#.Vosv017G_7D
It’s not very El Nino like thus far. Most systems are very cold and relatively moisture starved, at least at these latitudes. We have yet to see a good tap for any length of time.
Just looked at today’s NOAA ENSO report deck. El Nino characteristic values are plummeting and upper level velocity anomalies are heading in the wrong direction for any sort of sustained drought buster. January will probably be OK but after that I don’t expect much.
To repeat, 2010-2011 was a colossal drought-buster winter, but was not an El Niño, And most of the snow came in March and April.
Although helpful, thus far, this series of systems is a squib.
Its nice to see them getting the reserves back but don’t i seem to recall that the nutters drained the reservoirs at the absolute worst possible time?
The rivers which NATURALY used to go dry in droughts, all flow year round as they continue to drain resivors.
The alarmists have entered a new era.
After years of chanting “weather is not climate” there’s a new decree being made.
A few days ago in our local Oregonlive.com
David Appell
” Climate change now influences all weather.”
“All weather events now do have a climate change component.”
“Every weather event now has AGW mixed into it.”
“It has determined that some extreme weather is being influenced by AGW.”
That’s an impressive scientific development.
Or not?
@ur momisugly Steve Oregon, 11.29 am, you quoted this:
“David Appell
” Climate change now influences all weather.”
“All weather events now do have a climate change component.”
“Every weather event now has AGW mixed into it.”
“It has determined that some extreme weather is being influenced by AGW.”
That is not a scientific development, It is a semantic development.
Because the fact that if everyone thinks COP21 in Paris was an end to the “Global Warming or Climate Change” hoax, Reading that statement, they are sadly mistaken , as you point out.
That language is to me the next step these hoaxers are going to take . Just think how easy it will be for the warmists to grab onto that language. They cannot go wrong with that one.
That is a really ” See no matter what” we were “right” all along angle..
Thanks to global warming all this frozen precipitation (snow) is going to cause flooding in areas that are having drought caused by climate change. Did I get that right?
As I recall, correct me if I am wrong, CA can go from extreme drought to extreme precipitation quite quickly.
Next spring when if stuff melts fast (it would just take some heavy rain), they might be having flooding.
Climate change. Can’t live with. Can’t live without it.
Unusually in this El Nino, there have been heavy rains in late spring and early summer in eastern Austraila. busting droughts and quenching bush fires. Normally El Ninos bring drought to Australia, but not this time.
For what it’s worth: Fifty-five years ago I was taking a college class named “Conservation”. The instructor commented “If it doesn’t rain enough for a year or so in northern California, you just wait awhile longer and it will rain enough.”
The Monster El Nino has just dropped drought breaking rains on the eastern side of Australia. The monsoon that was not supposed to come down is filling dams and running rivers. Of course they need the same amount again in about 1 month.
Considering this major error, they try to have us believe tithing to the UN will save the climate in 100 years.
The warmists are an embarrassment to themselves and a drain on the world’s economy. Considering the rain, it is only the political drips that go along with it.
A rare mention of the historic drought hitting his native California from Mr. Watts. As far as I can tell from a quick search, he’s only mentioned it three times, to claim it’s nothing out of the ordinary or nothing to do with climate change. But if I missed some of his posts on the topic please fill me in… I’m sure he wasn’t just waiting for a possible break in the drought to mention it.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/18/spot-the-portion-of-drought-caused-by-climate-change/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/29/claim-cause-of-california-drought-linked-to-climate-change-not-one-mention-of-enso-or-el-nino/
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/08/20/ridiculous-claim-from-columbia-university-warming-climate-is-deepening-california-drought/
I think it is like the ache in my big toe. It has been with me for so long I hardly notice it anymore, and would never think to mention it if you ask me how I feel.
California without drought would be like a day without wine. That we’d notice.
Do you disagree with those posts. If so why?
Sierra Nevada snowfall consistent over 130 years:
http://www.sfgate.com/science/article/Study-Sierra-snowfall-consistent-over-130-years-3331631.php
“Snowfall in the Sierra Nevada has remained consistent for 130 years, with no evidence that anything has changed as a result of climate change”
Just sayin’. Since nearly all CA agriculture is irrigation from reservoirs, which are replenished during the critcal dry season from snow pack, even you might catch on to the myth of “unprecedented drought”.
I am happy that CA is getting Snowfall in the Sierras. lOVE it. Yosemite with snow is magically terrifying.
For us here in Texas, the 4-year drought has been broken… None expected anywhere sight in the state at least until March.
Oh, and FYI, statewide reservoirs are at 86% full. Many individual ones overflowing.
Waaaaahooooo!
And contrary to expectations, the west coast is getting snow not rain. So much for the climate models.
September 2015: Experts predict a warm, dry winter for Washington state; continued drought likely.
http://www.tri-cityherald.com/news/local/article36511020.html
As I was growing up in Arizona the highest rainfall month split the state: January in Phoenix from what little was left in the southern tails of the typical northwest winter storms generated in the Gulf of Alaska; and August for Tucson closer to the Mexican border from the summer monsoonal thunderstorms heading north out of the Gulf of California (Sea of Cortez).
What I was struck with at the end of January 2015 was an out of season monsoonal-direction (from the south) precipitation event driving its way up the Colorado river to reach Idaho! This resulted from a stream of subtropical air originating from tropical storminess off the west coast of lower Mexico being diverted by a counter clockwise spinning low pressure center that at the time happened to be just off the southern California coast. Otherwise this river of warm moist air driven by a southerly branch of the jet stream (what we west coasters have taken to calling a “pineapple express” when sourced in waters nearer Hawaii) has been most often headed northeast across Mexico and the Texas/Gulf coast.
Indeed some months later this region of ocean would bring flooding rains to the Houston area, produce 3 strong hurricanes in quick sequence that were unusually all in Pacific satellite view at one time (and as usual headed westward to at last loop northward in the region of Hawaii and decompose over the cooler waters thereabouts), and then late in the hurricane season spawn hurricane Patricia (with the lowest core pressure “evah” recorded in such a Pacific storm — well, as long as they have been made) to make landfall south of Puerto Vallarta and follow that same track across Mexico.
What has been notable again this December (winter month) was that, while there was no nearby diverting low pressure to steer this robust warm water vapor flow toward Arizona’s Sonoran desert and southern California’s Mojave desert, this skyway was still very much in evidence in animations of eastern Pacific infrared satellite imagery. So that near mid-month subtropical poppin’ eastern Pacific storm activity from the same area was sending this flow of significant southerly precipitation into east Texas/Oklahoma and up the Mississipi river valley as far as the mid-west states north of the Ohio river along with daytime high temperatures reaching the 60s F.
Then 2 weeks ago, well west of the usual eastern end of that subtropical storminess band a much larger warm moist blob lifted north from that latitude well to the west (nearly to Hawaii) and was clearly caught up in the same southerly jet stream branch in the satellite animation. This would be delivered once again in the same pattern to east Texas/Olkahoma and north (driving Dallas temperatures to 80 F.) but this time punctuated with tornadic storm energies, and with the arrival from the west of a more seasonal cold air mass such flooding rains (10 inches over 36 hours at one Missouri reporting site) that Mississippi river tributaries up to the Ohio river drainage approached flood stages and the consequences for the lower Mississippi river as that great fluid bulk moves downstream will take weeks to develop. Flood control gates may need to be opened to damaging effect on local farmlands in order to spare New Orleans region levees from the pressure.
These have been the roots of the mild winter conditions in the mid-west U.S. near the end of 2015. And apart from the loss of life from the accompanying tornadoes further south, tragically there were vehicular drownings when motorists were tempted to cross a roadway with just a foot or two of rushing water, unaware of the full momentum packed in every 62.4 pound cubic foot of that fluid which would combine to sweep them away downstream. At least those of us raised amongst the desert washes of Arizona were well coached on this peril of flash floods.
So is there a relation here to additional El Nino heat energy in eastern Pacific surface waters evaporating more energetic water vapor into the atmosphere as has so prominently figured in speculations for drought relief in the arid southwest of the country? The remotely imaged visuals would seem to support that notion for this particular circulation pattern directed toward mid-continent. But we southern Californians need to be cautious about assuming much about our own region, recalling that Los Angeles’ century-long record cumulative rainfall in 2005 (at the same time converting Death Valley salt flats into a shallow lake and producing a banner year for Mojave desert spring wildflowers) arrived in an unremarkable year for El Nino strength.
And having experienced the 1997-98 El Nino deluge in the San Francisco bay area (which had my wife and I initially literally bucket brigading the standing water our of our sub-basement after our local water table had risen high enough to alert us by extinguishing the burner of our hot water heater down there), I must also report that we were not at the time on the receiving end of a “pineapple express” to account for that precipitation, but a jet stream that had parked itself at our latitude for over 2 weeks, driving relentlessly the seasonal Pacific storms one after another straight at us from the west. Doc Chuck
And we got record rain and high temperatures in December.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35230696
What ever will the Gullible Climate change followers of everything Al Gore do if you take away blaming this drought on climate change. How dare you use Historical fact and measurements! They need this cause to make their lives meaningful! Telling a Climate Change Moron there is no such thing is like telling a kid there is no Santa Claus! Governor Brown needs this! Our state leaders need this! Otherwise they will have to devote more time to causes that really matter in this state including rising pension costs and cities going bankrupt etc…
Bring on the rain. Its a chance to get some introspection done and rejoice in the abundance of life giving water. Stay thirsty
Time to switch the meme from “Man’s CO2 pollution causes drought” to “Man’s CO2 pollution causes flooding”.
(If Man isn’t the cause then there’s no excuse to control what you do.)
The title is terrible there is no way one storm can or season can recuperate essentially empty reservoirs. It’s likely if it rained fr M now until March our reservoirs wouldn’t be at 50%.
Sure wish someone with access to a nuclear spectrometer would analyze a fresh snow sample off the Pacific to see how much Fukushima radioisotopes and particles it contains…..
Fukushima radiation in recent snowpack? There is probably more trace radiation in the water you drink already. Heck, there is a major reservoir in California built on top of a uranium field but I’m not telling which one.