24 days to Al Gore’s ’10 years to save the planet’ and ‘point of no return’ planetary emergency deadline

From the “say your prayers, we’re gonna roast” department.

gore-sundance-2006

On January 25th, 2006, while at the Sundance film festival, screening “An Inconvenient Truth”, Al Gore said this as chronicled in an article by CBS News:

The former vice president came to town for the premiere of “An Inconvenient Truth,” a documentary chronicling what has become his crusade since losing the 2000 presidential election: Educating the masses that global warming is about to toast our ecology and our way of life.

Gore has been saying it for decades, since a college class in the 1960s convinced him that greenhouse gases from oil, coal and other carbon emissions were trapping the sun’s heat in the atmosphere, resulting in a glacial meltdown that could flood much of the planet.

Americans have been hearing it for decades, wavering between belief and skepticism that it all may just be a natural part of Earth’s cyclical warming and cooling phases.

And politicians and corporations have been ignoring the issue for decades, to the point that unless drastic measures to reduce greenhouse gases are taken within the next 10 years, the world will reach a point of no return, Gore said.

He sees the situation as “a true planetary emergency.”

“If you accept the truth of that, then nothing else really matters that much,” Gore said in an interview with The Associated Press. “We have to organize quickly to come up with a coherent and really strong response, and that’s what I’m devoting myself to.”

Well, the 10 years are about up, by now, warming should have reached “planetary emergency levels” Let’s look at the data:

Satellite data since 1979:

UAH_LT_1979_thru_November_2015_v6

As you can see, little has changed since 2006. Note the spike in 1998, in the 18 years since the great El Niño of 97/98, that hasn’t been matched, and the current one we are in isn’t stronger, and looks to be on the way to decaying. So much for the “monster” El Niño.

Dr. John Christy recently wrote of the satellite record since 1979:

While a 0.12 C trend isn’t exactly a sprint to climate catastrophe (the 1.2 C or 2.2 degrees F rise over 100 years would be roughly equal to the warming seen most spring days between 10 a.m. and noon), it nonetheless has been a steady trend for the past several years. Take away the random variations caused by warm and cold weather systems, and any long-term trend, no matter how small, will produce climate records on a regular basis. Add to that long-term warming the additional heat of a large El Niño, and record-setting monthly average temperatures should be both routine and expected.

Despite that, early indications are that 2015 will end as the third warmest year in the satellite temperature record, behind 1998 and 2010. That is the early indication. Typically, the warmest temperatures are seen in the second year of an El Niño warming event, although there have been exceptions. If the typical pattern holds true, the second year of the current El Niño would be expected to bring more record high temperatures in 2016, perhaps including a new record high temperature for the year.

The fastest warming place on Earth over the past 37 years has been in the Arctic Ocean north of the Svalbard archipelago, where temperatures have been rising 0.5 C (about 0.9 degrees F) per decade. The fastest cooling spot was over the eastern Antarctic near Dome C. Temperatures there have been falling at the rate of 0.41 C (about 0.74 degrees F) per decade.

UAH-Dec78_Nov15_LT_trend

Warmer at the North pole, colder at the South pole since 1979. Source: UAH

The surface record for the last 10 years:

Global surface temperature from Jan. 2006 to Nov. 2015

Global surface temperature from Jan. 2006 to Nov. 2015

Source: http://woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2006/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2006/trend

Of course, proponents of climatic catastrophe will look at that and say “Gore was right!” …except there is this small niggling problem, a fairly large El Niño in 2015, which has nothing to do with CO2 induced warming as Gore claimed ten years ago. Note the spike in 2007, in the nine years since, that hasn’t been matched.

The real point here is to note that, no matter whether you are looking at the satellite record or the surface temperature record, is that the temperature hasn’t risen dramatically in the last 10 years, and the dramatic spikes we see in the surface and satellite temperature records correspond to a natural event that’s been going on for millennia;  El Niño.

According to Gore, this map should have been all reds now.

2015-CFS-T2m-global-temperature-anomaly-768x576

In a recent post about why El Nino drive global temperatures, Dr. Roy Spencer wrote this: What Causes El Nino Warmth?

Dick Lindzen suggested to me recently that this might be a good time to address the general question, “what causes the global-average warmth during El Nino?”

Some of you might say, “the sun, of course”. Yes, the sun’s energy is the ultimate source of energy for the climate system, but it really doesn’t explain why El Nino years are unusually warm…or why La Nina years are unusually cool.

The answer lies in the circulation of the Pacific Ocean, more specifically the vertical circulation of that ocean basin.

The short answer is that, during El Nino, there is an average decrease in the vertical overturning and mixing of cold, deep ocean waters with solar-heated warm surface waters. The result is that the surface waters become warmer than average, and deeper waters become colder than average. The opposite situation occurs during La Nina.

Importantly, the change shows up in global average ocean computations, based upon ocean temperature data (see our Fig. 3, here); this means that the changes centered in the Pacific are not offset by changes of the opposite sign occurring in other ocean basins.

So, the big warming events of the last 10 years have been El Niño related, a natural event, and even they haven’t reached catastrophic levels of global temperature.

Al Gore’s posited “within the next 10 years, the world will reach a point of no return” and “a true planetary emergency.” is proving to be nothing more than PR bullshit to push his movie, and won’t happen by the ten year countdown of January 25th 2016.

Gaia seems to be a “Gore denier”. How inconvenient.

 

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Note: within a few minutes of publication this post was updated to fix a formatting error, a source for the countdown graphic, and a repeated phrase on temperature, and fix of the date of the 10 year anniversary from 2015 to 2016

531 thoughts on “24 days to Al Gore’s ’10 years to save the planet’ and ‘point of no return’ planetary emergency deadline

  1. I guess I should appreciate the inconvenient truth that AIT exposed a moronic take on climate I would have never guessed existed otherwise. Thank you Al.

      • Am far more concerned about a small asteroid hitting the earth than the world temp going up 1 degree over the next 80 years per Gore and the media’s global warming scam.

      • Mr. Gore has made about a BILLION dollars from his cap & trade scam. (And many millions from selling his television network to Al Jazeera.)

      • Man is too weak to be the cause of global warming or cooling or whatever the next “science” hype is.

        Global Warming purpose is to separate the Middle Class from it’s money, sponsored and promoted by the US Government, BUT derailed by Common Sense! Don’t need to be a math whiz to use common sense.

      • I suspect we’re FAR more likely to be obliterated by an asteroid or comet strike than by anything Gore claims. The reality is that we’re in an “interglacial” period between ice ages (the last major ice age ended roughly 12,000 years ago.) The next ice age is likely a few thousand years in the future, but is apparently inevitable. We are currently in a normal cycle and actually saw warmer temperatures and worse droughts in the early 1930s. In the article it indicates Gore claimed he “learned” about greenhouse gasses and global warming in the 1960s. The problem with that is that, at that time, the radicals were claiming we were headed for global COOLING. The theories on greenhousing based on gasses are based on data from Venus probes and wasn’t even developed until the late 70s and early 80s.

      • scary scary…Al Gore is scary.
        Scary that dems can so easily latch onto a populist rumor, destroy science and run us into the ground.

        I know!!! Lets all go down to the Maya temples and hold crop circle fertility chants to stop the horrible things he made so much money off of. (sarc/off in case nobody noticed?)

      • Humanity may be obliterated by some natural phenomenon, it could even be global warming. But not due to anything remotely credited to Al Gore. The man is a farce.

        Humanity will be obliterated by our own blind trust in authority. That’s the record so far at least.

      • Al Gore should be brought to trial for his part in the promotion of the global warming farce that was based on false evidence in order to line his own pockets with millions of dollars, and for the resultant un calculable cost to world economies, and for his part in making the world’s poor a lot worse off.

    • When ENRON collapsed, Al Gore instructed his Goons
      to retrieve the Carbon Credit Fraud Business plan from
      ENRON Before DOJ gets there.
      He makes money from it TODAY ! ! !
      And the INTELLIGENTSIA continues to “BELIEVE” it is TRUE.
      .

    • Just wondering which “oracles” are still intact ?
      Land temperature accuracy just took a big hit thanks to Anthony
      NOAA are being sued for non release of their records which are likely to have been altered
      The tree ring circus used only “good” trees or were they actually the “bad” trees ?
      Just a guy wondering what to believe ?

      • The “tree ring circus”, used only three trees from one location.
        Not possible to make a statistical representation from such a small sample, but in fact the entire “hockey stick graph”, is based on this heavily flawed data!!

        So good catch. :)

  2. Could “anthropogenic global warming” have compensated for/prevented “most” of the global cooling for the last 18 years 9 months?
    Can we then have hope that we might be able to reverse the projected increasing rate of cooling towards the next glaciation? I am more concerned over the damage of a 1000 ft thick glacier grinding back through Canada into the USA than 1 ft higher sea level.

    • While a nice thought and I agree on preference that you have I doubt any amount of CO2 will prevent the glaciation from resuming. The only hope to do that (IMHO) would be to geo-engineer an opening between Panama and South America to the Pacific could flow into the Atlantic again as it did 3+ million years ago before we entered (and still haven’t left) the ice age.

    • No. AGW is a failed God. CO2 doe’s nothing to slow an ice age mini are full. CO2 doe’s not warm the planet as witnessed by ice core samples and more going back millions of years.

  3. Who here can say with 100% certainty, or even 95%, that sea level will not rise many feet in the next 24 days, and Wall Street bankers will soon be taking gondolas to work instead of ordinary taxis?

    No one can say, because predicting the future climate is impossible.

    I have discovered the main cause of global warming, however:
    — The more face time Al Gore has on TV, and the more he speaks publicly about climate change, the warmer it gets.
    — His “hot air” is the primary source of global warming, not the sun.
    — The “pause” since the early 2000s was caused by Gore spending too much time making money, and eating at all-you-can-eat-buffets …. leaving little time for making tedious public speeches about climate change.

    I want to thank Al Gore for getting me interested in climate change in the late 1990s. When he wrote a book pretending to be a “scientist”, I knew immediately the coming climate change catastrophe was a leftist scam.

    • I can say with certainty that sea level will not rise many feet in the next 24 days, barring some unforeseen catastrophic event.
      And hey, the al-Gore effect defines increasing cooling and heavy snow whenever he’s most wound up about warming.
      al-Gore has done an immeasurable amount of good for the Right, more than he could have done if he wasn’t a “progressive” imbecile. We now have a certifiable nut case that we can point to whenever required.

      • It’s all fear-porn from the Left. Al Gore is their prophet, and his apocalyptic prophecies have failed to come to pass. Another prophet from NASA predicted last year that California would run out of water by April. I think we should hold him to that, too.

      • @ Khan David…the current northern California snowpack is around 130% of normal as of now. This winter will take the edge off of the drought, and next year’s winter will most likely end the drought.

      • “It’s all fear-porn from the Left. Al Gore is their prophet,”

        Gore is a Democrat. That makes him more right-wing than the British Conservative Party, though perhaps not as right-wing as the Republican Party.

        This whole AGW scam was originally promoted by right-wing politicians (Thatcher and Gore) and big money shufflers. It really saddens me to see that some of the very few real left-wingers still around have been sucked into it.

      • Dr Dzugan has over 80% success rate in returning people to the reference range and those that don’t still improve dramatically so in reality close to 100% improve. He doesn’t use statin based drugs. His idea, that seems to be borne out by experiments, is that the body loses the ability to convert cholesterol to hormones so the body detects low hormones and tries to adjust by providing more cholesterol. He adjusts the body’s hormone levels and the body stops overproducing cholesterol.

        http://www.lifeextension.com/vitamins-supplements/item33852/The-Magic-of-Cholesterol-Numbers

    • How dare you! Al is not, like, “pretending”. I mean, like, he, you know, invented the Internet and all…

    • “Who here can say with 100% certainty, or even 95%, that sea level will not rise many feet in the next 24 days, and Wall Street bankers will soon be taking gondolas to work instead of ordinary taxis?”

      Actually, it can be said with near certainty that this will not happen, and if it does, it totally disproves the whole global warming theory anyway. Even Michael Mann’s hockey stick did not have a 24 day jump in it. No one can predict with 100% certainty the climate in the next 24 days, but we can say with near certainty that the quoted prediction will not be true. Using a highly improbable outcome to try and demonstrate that no one can predict climate with high certainty is not helping the skeptic cause. It just makes you look uninformed and reactionary.

      • Not having a sense of humor makes you a dull “scientist”.

        The future is not predictable.
        Whether 24 days, 24 months, 24 years, or 24 centuries in the future.

        I suppose the BEST way to help the “skeptic cause”, as you call it, it to ignore OBVIOUS humor in a post, and character attack a fellow skeptic — that will REALLY help the “skeptic cause”.

      • What happens to water when it freezes? It expands, right? So if the glaciers melt all the volume of the ice is reduced and the oceans will sink not rise. Fill a glass with ice and see what happens when it melts.

      • AJ Lamm-“What happens to water when it freezes? It expands, right? So if the glaciers melt all the volume of the ice is reduced and the oceans will sink not rise. Fill a glass with ice and see what happens when it melts.”

        Please, oh please, for the love of all things, tell me you just left off the “sarc” tag!

      • Icebergs displace their volume floating in water unlike glaciers which move over land masses so that ice cubes floating in a glass of water example makes no sense

    • Actually it is easy… first for the sea to rise requires an increase in volume (or a 1000 magnitude increase in the Moon’s gravity (which would cause other problems). This increase on volume would have to come from melting ice and would average out over the entire nautical surface. So either it melts in 24 days (impossible unless you unleash 1000 nuc’s on the ice) or it doesn’t. BTW… ice has a greater volume than water… oh least I forget… there may not be enough ice on Earth to cause such a rise.

    • I also want to see Al, baby, downsize into a smaller home like we did. I am sure he lives in some mega-thousand square foot home that slurps up way too much non-renewable energy as well as the earth robbing materials that went into building the home. Also, what kind of transportation does he take- private jets, big non-efficient cars? He may be conserving, but I think his footprint could be re-examined and downsized. We are doing our part for the planet as best we can. I have not read anything about his personal efforts, but these are some of the thoughts I have concerning the former Veep.

    • Just proves it is a good thing, that this fruitcake Al Bore wasn’t elected president. No telling what he would have done to our country, that Obozo didn’t do.

      • John

        Interesting question. Would Al Gore have been a worse president than O’Bummer? Historians will be debating that question for hundreds of years. Whose core beliefs are further removed from historical experiece — Al Gore or O’Bummer? Which one more efficient at trashing the system and destroying American values? To sum it all up — which one is the bigger space cadet?

        Eugene WR Gallun

    • Watch a movie about CO2 in the ’60s?

      1: I thought we were just entering the global COOLING scare around that time.

      2: Did divinity schools teach climatology back then?

      3: I remember being at VA Tech in 65-66; it was as cold as a witch’s teat with snowdrifts up to 20 feet in places. I dropped out.

      Forrest Gore has more intelligence.

      • As is often the case with the left, their consciences are rarely bothered by making up ‘facts’ to embellish a story that supports their ideology.

      • “Gore has been saying it for decades, since a college class in the 1960s convinced him that greenhouse gases from oil, coal and other carbon emissions were trapping the sun’s heat in the atmosphere, resulting in a glacial meltdown that could flood much of the planet.”

        Where did you get “a movie” out of that?

    • “Who here can say with 100% certainty, or even 95%, that sea level will not rise many feet in the next 24 days, and Wall Street bankers will soon be taking gondolas to work instead of ordinary taxis?”

      I can say with at least 95% confidence that it will not be Gondolas.

      If I remember correctly, there are only a handful of Squerarioli in Venice still building the gondolas today. With each boat requiring about a dozen species of wood (some of which require a year’s preparation time), individual boat build times measured in months, and price tags north of $60 USD, it will take considerably longer than 24 days to construct the necessary fleet. Current Venetian production is barely meeting the replacement needs of the dwindling fleet (+400 boats). The gondolas have asymmetric hulls to resist the turning moment of the single starboard mounted sculling oar and are built from eye, memory and rules of thumb (no plans, no half models), so it is doubtful that other wooden boat builders could ramp up production to fill the need. The boats are kept in the families that own them and handed down from father to son as a way of life, so it is doubtful that a significant percentage of the existing fleet could be purchased and relocated to the other side of the pond in the required 24 days. Besides, I doubt that Wall Street bankers have the temperament to spend the time required for the gondolier to scull the boat along at a stately 3 knot velocity for any distance.

  4. Back in the old days when video stores existed it was great fun to scoop up the poop called an Inconvenient truth and move them all to the fiction section. Sure looks like time has proven me right after all these years.

  5. I at least have the pride I did not vote for that puppy. It was for other reasons, but anyone who could fail as a a theology major would seem to be a bad fit as a secular prophet.

    • if gore had carried tennessee, his nominal home state, he would’ve been elected. thankfully, the people of the volunteer state had seen enough of him to know he is an elitest fraud. history will judge him poorly.

      • Although Tennessee has several metropolitan areas the state is primarily rural and thus focused on agriculture. One thing folks from the country readily recognize is the waste product from male cattle. He didn’t stand a chance. I do wish Monckton would include this observation with his frequent mentions of Al’s home state.

      • Jack Maples, yeah, because Bush was such a great President. Two unfunded wars and the worse recession since the Great Depression.

      • Arguably, the last year of Carter and the first two years of Reagan were worse–it is the recovery from this recession that was worse.

        On Mon, Jan 4, 2016 at 2:23 PM, Watts Up With That? wrote:

        > dbstealey commented: “I see that Chris doesn’t accept the Business > Cycle…”

    • Theology is not a soft option, at least not here. You are expected to do at least Greek or Hebrew. You are likely to have to take at least one paper on another religion. You have to do a fair bit of history. You have to study interpretation, which amongst other things is supposed to teach you not to imagine that *your* interpretation is the full and final one. (This could be said of most of the papers, actually.) Even the papers that wouldn’t challenge me look like a lot of work. As far as I can see, there aren’t *any* papers that would prepare you to be a secular prophet, except possibly http://www.otago.ac.nz/theology/study/papers/index.html?papercode=PAST311#2016 which is not being offered this year. I remember believing that “An Inconvenient Truth” was sincere, if wrong; I wish I could still believe that.

  6. Despite that, early indications are that 2015 will end as the third warmest year in the satellite temperature record, behind 1998 and 2010. That is the early indication.

    RSS for December is out and this is indeed the case for RSS.
    RSS for December has just come in at 0.543. This is the warmest December in the relatively short satellite record, however 0.543 was beaten in the first 8 months of 1998 and for 4 months in 2010. The 2015 average is 0.358, putting 2015 in third place as Bob mentioned behind 0.550 from 1998 and 0.468 from 2010.
    The pause has decreased by one month to 18 years and 8 months. Now, the pause goes from May 1997 to December 2015.
    This month, the start date for the pause jumped by two months to May. The huge question now is whether or not the anomalies will drop to 0.24 before the start month reaches December 1997.

    • Bullshi*. It’s an out and out FRAUD and shear arrogance of anyone living to try and predict weather. Perfect example is Al Bore. Sad thing is the younger generations are purposely dumbed down so much, they believe all this crap. Someday, the truth will unfold and all the fraudsters and hacksters hopefully will get the same punishment the Saudis have recently dished out to the terrorists………………

    • Warmer Huh? All they have to dois continue to use the FAKE warming reports they already have. This whole thing is take down the USA, make al gore richer and impoverish (enslave) the rest of us.I haven’t seen this much balderdash since I cleaned out the daily barns.

    • You are very good at copying/pasting propaganda that you neither understand nor research. A perfect useful idiot minion used by the puppetmasters of the left.

  7. So, Al, you gonna sell the private jets, trade the armored limos for a Prius, auction off the mansions and estates and live in an energy-efficient single-family home?

    Yes, I see, and no, you can’t do THAT to me or the horse I rode in on. I don’t even own a horse.

    • sure he will-
      when you stop voting for your masters and you stop paying your tithes to your particular religion of peace.
      they won’t stop swilling till you stop filling.
      who’s the fountainhead of self destruction, really?
      so al likes to peddle climate fear pr0n.
      you didn’t have to buy any.
      you once had a choice.
      there is no al gore without such as thou who art precisely, exactly, flipsides of one coin.
      so sure- poke at al for hypocrisy – it’s the only way you can out do him on it.

  8. “””””””0bama the beast”””””””””””””””””Bush false prophet”””””””””””””””
    ************************************************************************
    Rev 19:20

    And the beast was taken, and with him the false prophet that wrought miracles before him, with which he deceived them that had received the mark of the beast, and them that worshiped his image. These both were cast alive into a lake of fire burning with brimstone.

    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
    1` month left and 7yrs tribulation will be up give or take a day or two.

    The worst has yet to come. Sorry but I don’t know the day or hour.

    • Please,
      No medieval fairy stories, I implore you.
      It makes sceptics look like religious nut-jobs rather than the real scientists that so many of us are.

  9. And how much of this data on the 0.33 degrees of warming was due to the faulty and out right BS temperature readings as well??? None of this global climate change crap has anything to do with the planet…it’s ALL about controlling the population, to make us slaves of the “ruling class”…

    • In the billions of years the earth has existed, and the monumental changes it has endured, it’s very possible that the earth will experience global warming. However, not because of anything Al Gore is suggesting. The earth has experienced warming in the past and ice ages in the past, it will probably experience these phenomenons in the future. When and to what extent, who knows? Our history represents, perhaps a second out of a million years, even perhaps a hundred million years. In that span of future time, any prediction could be true. One prediction is for certain, man will one day disappear, as a species, from the face of the earth. And it will not matter to you or to me. The significance of the human race is only significant to us, but meaningless to the eternal vastness of the galaxy, space and time.

      • Impossible. The earth has been in a constant state of cooling from the day it began forming.

        Anyone that says otherwise is a fool. It won’t experience any warming or cooling that we can affect in any way. Well unless we decide it’s time to start dropping nukes all over the place.. Otherwise it’s safe to say that we are not the cause of jack… or shit..

        Surface temps have nothing to do with anything man does. Our minimal contribution does not affect the overall planet temps in any way at all. To say that we do can’t be substantiated at all. There is no proof.

        I don’t care what spiritual bullshit you try to lace in the midst of this statement. Any conclusion that this planet has in any way experienced any warming when it’s a fact that it’s a molten ball with a crust barely clinging to the skin and an atmosphere that will likely be stripped away little by little with each pole change by the planet due to lack of a radiation belt for a couple of hundred years… I mean seriously.. Are people so stupid that they can’t see how absurd the entire idea of man having anything to do with cooling or heating of the planet?

        And your spiritual mumbojumbo is just that.. nonsensical… :P

  10. Gore is saying that the 10 year window to act and make changes closes at the end of 2015. There have been many environmentally conscious changes in the past 10 years made by governments across the world in an effort to lower CO2 output and make cleaner burning emissions. The lack of absolute catastrophe may be the result of the fact that changes have been made.

    • Keep believing that if it makes you feel better. Global warming is nothing more than a hoax to get money from the masses.

    • Sandy Vag, CO2 levels have increased EVERY year despite ‘changes made’, so you can discount the impact of such changes. The CO2 increase has decreased, however – thanks to fracking!!

    • What a complete load of Gorelican BS. CO2 has continued to rise. It’s temperature that hasn’t. AGW is a false god.

    • I just have to pile on.

      Nothing has been done to alter the rise of CO2. It is still rising at the same rate as before the alarm was sounded. There has been no climate catastrophe.

      The hypothesis is falsified.

      They are lying to you.

      All the talk of polar bears and such. Hogwash. Just lie after lie after lie.

      If you continue to believe their lies, shame on you. If your self image requires you to believe these lies, I feel sorry for you. If you need to say these lies so your friends will not shun you, get new friends.

      This is a gigantic fraud. Even your Dr. James Hansen, formerly Mr. Consensus himself, calls the “efforts” to control CO2 a fraud. But, somebody is making money, just not you or me.

    • If you did not have sand in your underpamts, you could think rationally. There is much wrong with your post, but I will not do you the favor of explaining; the world needs good examples of bad examples

    • Sandy Underpants

      The rate of CO2 emissions in the past ten years has only increased not abated. There has been no slowdown of CO2 emissions. Try to think. I know it hurts but so does any muscle that has not been used in a long time when you start to exercise it.

      Eugene WR Gallun

      • You’re presuming there was a muscle there to begin with. That’s perhaps an unwarranted assumption.

  11. An inconvenient truth . . . Gore has made over $100mm from “global warming” AND has among the biggest “carbon footprints” of any individual on the planet. He’s also a crazed sex-poodle! All in all, what a POS.

  12. Rising oceans are only a problem for the rich and famous who own ocean front properties. How wonderful for the trailer court owner 2 mi inland when he discovers he now has ocean front property? A 2 degree increase in average temp would be great for those of us in fly over country. It would extend the growing season and save on heating expenses. Global warming is only a problem for the rich coastal elites which are the only ones the government represents anyway. Bring on the warming!

    • Well, O’Bummer did once claim that we will end the rise of the seas. And other things. Big talk from a little disappearing man.

      Eugene WR Gallun

    • I was glad to see your post. Al Gore may be a Liar, a nut, a con man and an idiot. But look the liberals have made him rich by believing in his lies. And so many of them still believe them. A man once said that Liberalism is a mental disease and he really knew what he was saying. You have to be mentally deficient to believe in something that has time and time again been proven to be a lie. Polar bears did not die off, the ice at the pole did not melt ( even though the spinning WASHINGTON POST tried to convince people with a heavily spun lie stating the north pole was 50 degrees UNDER its norm). Of course, as everyone that is intelligent enough to tie their own shoes now knows, that was North Pole, Alaska which is not even in northern part of Alaska, but the left wing media will tell any lie and spin to support their liberal friends. The down side of this is there are no real Conservatives or people with common sense in the congress or White House. The Liberals are going to be able to force the middle class people to still pay for this huge scam to get more of middle American’s money and split it up among their political buddies.

      • Wes, did you mean 50 degrees warmer? I did see a big increase in temperature on the WUWT ice page but not 50 degrees (F or C?). I have not seen yet an analysis of the Washington Post claim

      • “But look the liberals have made him rich by believing in his lies.”

        No, Al Gore made his millions off Apple stock given to him as a company director, and the sale of Current TV. He has made very little if any off his green investments, if you include his losses as well as the gains.

  13. Has anyone told al gore there was an ice age. Must have been some kinda massive global warming to get rid of all that ice! O’ and there was the miny ice age of the 1600s you know, the one where Europeans were starving because the crops were not growing.
    Must have beem some global warming to take care of that bad boy. And how abot during the 1400s, much warmer
    Then these days. Crops grew fine, a time of wealth, crativity, and invention.
    Not one SUV in sight! O’ and by the way, has anybody asked old Al Gore
    What the prevailing temperature should
    Be?

  14. Gore is a pure nut. Meanwhile, he lectures the rest of us while flying all over the world in his jet. Scam artist to fill his wallet!

  15. Al Gore should be required to return all the money he stole from the ignorant fools that believed that a corrupt politician had some kind of clue, that he could predict the weather patterns for a decade in advance! Normal weather people can’t correctly predict incoming storms accurately even 3 days in advance let alone 10 years. Yet with Al Gore’s political connections, he did the same thing as the sub prime mortgage groups did to the American people! They are all corrupt crooks ! Until man figures out how to control the Sun’s rays, Man has very little effect on the weather. Throw Al Gore and all his corrupt scientists that faked their scientific reports for financial gain, in order to fund their pet projects with taxpayer money.

  16. …unless drastic measures to reduce greenhouse gases are taken within the next 10 years, the world will reach a point of no return,…

    Well, of course, he’s quite right.

    We are at a point of ‘no return’. We can’t go back to 2006. Indeed, we can’t go back to 2015.

    The way time works is that you can never go back to anything.. Mind you, that’s not exactly news….

    • But you can look back quite a significant period in time. All one needs is a telescope and descent night skies. Telescopes are the closest thing we have to a time machine.

  17. Gore is an idiot. 10 years to bring about a new world order is more like it. Why are we focused on finding a way to create a new massive tax system? How about we solve a few of the big problems first… farming and fossil fuels!? Let’s invest in new farming technologies and new fuel sources. I mean we can power cars with compressed air and hydrogen which is much cleaner. Why don’t we do a new Manhattan project and create a clean burning fuel and give it freely to the world? Is mean too greedy and power hungry to really come together to solve a problem we have the technology to solve?

  18. Al gore is a snake oil salesman. Dependent on the naive, gullible, dim witted, feeble minded and mentally challenged to listen to his nonsense

    I don’t blame Al Gore as much as I blame the naive, gullible, dim witted, feeble minded and mentally challenged who listen to Al Gore. Whoops!!! I guess they listen to Al Gore because they are naive, gullible, dim witted, feeble minded and mentally challenged. Global warming, which is complete and total nonsense to anyone with more than two functioning brain cells, makes perfect sense to them.

    • For almost 20 years CO2 (“carbon”) has been rising, but global temperatures have been declining — exactly the opposite of what Algore predicted:

      http://tiny.cc/y38s7x

      Next, we see the usual Brandon Gates cherry-picked propaganda in his comment right below. But here’s what Gates is not showing:


      (click in chart to embiggen)

      That is global ice cover, which recently took a normal and natural dip. As we see, it is recovering. Global ice is almost at its 30-year average. Like numerous times before, it will probably rise past the average. But to climate alarmists, every little wiggle indicates impending doom — but only those wiggles that support their belief system. And without any proof at all, they blame human CO2 emissions (only ≈3% of the total) for their negative wiggles. But they go silent when the wiggles go against them.

      So my meter pegs whenever Gates posts something:

      • Next, we see the usual Brandon Gates cherry-picked propaganda in his comment right below. But here’s what Gates is not showing:

        Nice try, Stealey. These two plots from my initial post combined …

        … should roughly add up to the one you posted above. Now, if you want to quibble about the difference between sea ice extent and sea ice area, well be my guest.

        And without any proof at all, they blame human CO2 emissions (only ≈3% of the total) for their negative wiggles.

        Algebra fail. Human beings account for ~0% of the sinks. Speaking of “proof” …

        That is global ice cover, which recently took a normal and natural dip.

        Where’s your “proof” DB? Try to not use any estimates in your answer … I know how big you are on measurements.

        Ta.

      • See? The ^climate alarmist crowd^ clings to “Arctic ice” like a drowning man clings to a stick.

        Earth to the alarmist contingent: humans have no effect on polar ice.

        Next, there was no mention of “sinks” in my comment; a typical strawman setup. I referred only to sources. And the fact is, there’s no evidence that CO2 causes any global damage or harm, but there’s plenty of evidence showing that more CO2 is very beneficial.

        And since the stupid “Arctic ice” argument never goes away, here’s some perspective:

        Normal folks look at all the evidence, and try to make an informed, rational decision. But climate alarmists don’t need any of that sciency stuff. They already have their belief, and that’s enough for them.

      • dbstealey,

        Earth to the alarmist contingent: humans have no effect on polar ice.

        Proper skeptics to Stealey: how is it that you come by this knowledge?

        Next, there was no mention of “sinks” in my comment; a typical strawman setup. I referred only to sources.

        No, dearest DB. A strawman is a cariacature of an argument attributed to one’s opponent built expressly for the purpose of refuting because it’s so ridiculous. The fact that your original “sinks only” argument is ridiuclous has got nothing to do with ME and everything to do with the fact that you’ve apparently forgotten how to balance equations.

        Me bringing up sinks when you mentioned ONLY sources is what rational honest, rational people call a rebuttal … as well as basic numeracy.

        And since the stupid “Arctic ice” argument never goes away, here’s some perspective:

        Pretty picture. What does it mean? Is it an estimate, or a measurement?

        Normal folks look at all the evidence, and try to make an informed, rational decision.

        Oh good, then you won’t mind commenting on this plot …

      • …how is it that you come by this knowledge?

        You got it backwards again! Skeptics have nothing to prove.

        We take things as they are, or appear to be. alarmists, on the other hand, presume whatever they want, and then accuse scientific skeptics of having the hidden ‘knowledge’ that you suppose yourselves must possess.

        Next, your tap-dancing around the obvious fact that you mis-read my comment isn’t a “rebuttal”, it is a typically amusing misteak. Keep it up, it’s a slow nite here…

        Next:

        Pretty picture. What does it mean?

        OK, I will explain it for you, but I gotta say, schooling you has been tedious. The “pretty picture” shows that the 2015 Arctic ice levels were ho-hum.

        Next, yes, I will be morn happy to comment on your cherry-picked “upper ocean” link:

        For one thing, total ocean heat content, from the surface to 700 metres depth, has flattened in recent years, while [harmless, beneficial] CO2 continues its steady rise:

        Oh good, then you won’t mind commenting on this plot…

        Sure thing. This graph explains it nicely. Anyone else could understand:

        And here’s the ARGO data from zero to 1900 metres, showing deep ocean cooling:

        Got lots more. Just ax. ☺

      • Like Joules for energy, Watts for power, Ohms for resistance, etc., we need a unit of measure for bulls**t. I recommend an AlGore–defined as the amount of bulls**t produced by Al Gore in a single year, or equivalently, the amount of bulls**t produced by the rest of the world in one century. However, since one AlGore is a very large number, for daily use we’ll have to use a microAlGore, which still may be too large for the average person to comprehend.

      • dbstealey

        There was an old movie called VANISHING POINT. It was the speed a car reached when the speedometer pointer went so far to the right that it vanished from sight. Al Gore’s lies have passed the vanishing point.

        Eugene WR Gallun

      • Current Arctic sea ice is just about on the edge of 1sd from the 1980-2010 mean.

        This is pretty much EXACTLY where it should be for the phase of the AMO.

        Thus there is no hint whatsoever of ANY human influence on Arctic sea ice.

      • A better chart where the pink area shows a guestimate of the 1sd region.

        As anyone can see, the blue dot (current) is just outside that region.. just like the Arctic sea ice levels are.

      • You got it backwards again! Skeptics have nothing to prove.

        Stealey once again besmirches the word “skeptic” by confusing “nothing to prove” with “nothing to offer”.

      • dbstealey: Regarding your instruction at the bottom of the first graph “click in chart to embiggen” – the correct word is “enlarge”.

      • Brandon Gates asks for human sinks; after all, it’s carnival!

        Skulls and Bones comes to mind: CaCO3.

        sweet our sour, take it or leave it to the kids.

        Hans

  19. Anthony,

    Well, the 10 years are about up, by now, warming should have reached “planetary emergency levels” Let’s look at the data …

    Let’s first look at some other text from the same article first:

    The film centers on the elaborate slideshow presentations Gore conducts around the world for live audiences on the perils of global warming. He presents alarming images of ice-cap meltdowns and graphs linking the rise and fall of atmospheric carbon-dioxide to rising and falling temperatures.

    If the pace of pollution continues, Gore’s projections for carbon-dioxide levels are off the charts within a few decades.

    Among the worst-case consequences: A new ice age in Europe, and massive flooding of regions in India, China and elsewhere that could make refugees of tens of millions of people.

    That’s a lot of data to consider. I offer 5 data points relevant to the above summary:

    I could do without much of Mr. Gore’s (and CBS’) hyperbole and appeals to Polar Bears, but from literature I gather that the main concern is that even if we could reduce emissions to zero without fubaring the world’s economy to a fiscal Stone Age, there’s a good chance that landed ice loss would continue on its merry way even as surface temps began to stabilize because of the retained energy by the oceans since Mr. Gore’s hit film …

    … which has quite evidently continued unabated, and which is something that orbiting microwave sounding units pressed into service to model lower tropospheric temps cannot see.

    The thing which I wish to impress upon you and your readers is that knowing whether we’ve reached a “tipping-point” for “irreversible” landed ice loss is not something I can “know” just from looking at the scant amount of additional data I have offered for consideration. Guesstimating the future state(s) of a physical system requires a model, period, full stop, end of story.

    There’s a lot more to this physical system to model than just CO2 and surface temperature.

    Al Gore’s posited “within the next 10 years, the world will reach a point of no return” and “a true planetary emergency.” is proving to be nothing more than PR bullshit to push his movie, and won’t happen by the ten year countdown of January 25th 2016.

    Ok fine. Are you telling us that there’s nothing to be concerned about?

    • Despite your gloomy outlook, I haven’t seen anything that convinces me the Earth will be anywhere near conditions that it hasn’t experienced before. I hope you don’t mind when we celebrate victory in 24 days.

    • Cooling is something to be concerned about, not the slight beneficial warming we’ve experienced. And cooling is very possible in the coming decades. The long-term trend the past 10,000 years is downward.

      The whole “tipping points” meme is a joke.

      • I could not agree more with you Bob. And I love that graph.

        I would only add that over the next 100 years the temperature might go up a bit or might go down a bit. The temperatures might go up a lot or might go down a lot — I can’t prove which one.

        I can tell you this though: CO2 will have nothing at all to do with it whatever it is.

      • Bruce Cobb,

        And cooling is very possible in the coming decades.

        Sure, Pakistan could nuke India, who would in all likelihood respond in kind. We could get hit by a big asteroid or comet. Lake Toba or the Yellowstone caldera could go up again. What else? Oh yes, silly me … I forgot the Sun.

        The long-term trend the past 10,000 years is downward.

        Hmmm ….

        The prediction for orbital forcings a la Milankovitch are not calling for cooling any time soon either:

        The whole “tipping points” meme is a joke.

        Really. Here, go argue with Bintanja et al (2008):

        http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v454/n7206/abs/nature07158.html

        Here we use a comprehensive ice-sheet model and a simple ocean-temperature model11 to extract three-million-year mutually consistent records of surface air temperature, ice volume and sea level from marine benthic oxygen isotopes12. Although these records and their relative phasings are subject to considerable uncertainty owing to limited availability of palaeoclimate constraints, the results suggest that the gradual emergence of the 100,000-year cycles can be attributed to the increased ability of the merged North American ice sheets to survive insolation maxima and reach continental-scale size. The oversized, wet-based ice sheet probably responded to the subsequent insolation maximum by rapid thinning through increased basal-sliding13, 14, thereby initiating a glacial termination.

        The model output data are here: ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/bintanja2008/

      • Cowtan & Way?? Not credible. But I’m saving that bogus chart. It goes in my folder with this other highly alarming chart:

        Really, those folks have no shame. Sounding a false alarm for money, and pats on the head.

        They must check their integrity at the door when they fabricate charts like that.

        They learned from Michael Mann that lying about the ‘climate’ brings in loot:

      • dbstealey,

        Cowtan & Way?? Not credible.

        Why not?

        Sounding a false alarm for money, and pats on the head. They must check their integrity at the door when they fabricate charts like that.

        Stealey gets the second smoked irony meter of the year.

      • Brandon Gates

        Now Brandon, on this site many people go into the data a climate paper presents and talk the author’s methods and math and relate it all to the conclusions the author has reached.

        You never do that.

        Why don’t you pick a paper written by a prominent “denialist”, go into the data and explain why the author’s methods, math and conclusions are wrong, If you were to do that you would win yourself some respect around here.

        Eugene WR Gallun

      • EWR Gallun”Why don’t you pick a paper written by a prominent “denialist”, go into the data and explain why the author’s methods, math and conclusions are wrong, If you were to do that you would win yourself some respect around here.”

        Phhhffffffftttt! According to John Cook and friends, out of all the papers in the world only something like 1% of them outrighted denied AGW….it might take BG forever just to actually locate one! (grinning madly-hugs!)

      • Eugene W Gallun,

        You never do that.

        Pardon me for being blunt, but you don’t know f*!kall about what I do or don’t do.

      • Brandon Gates

        “Pardon me for being blunt but you don’t know F*!lall about what I do or don’t do.”

        Not to beat a dead head —

        but I do know what you do and don’t do on this blog.

        Eugene WR Gallun

      • “Pardon me again for spending my limited time how I choose.”

        As a pointless waste of your time.. you are doing very well.

        You obviously feel that your time is worthless.

        To which we would all heartily agree.

      • skeohane January 2, 2016 at 11:27 am

        You make a good point. There is more to it than that.
        It was not just the Alps. The Austro-Hungarian army froze to death trying to hold the Carpathian passes in 1914-1915. Whole regiments after a couple of nights would have just a handful of survivors. As they marched to and from the front, wolves attacked any who straggled. Then there was the Turkish Army in Eastern Anatolia bordering Russia. They froze the first winter (1915-1916). Their army never really recovered.

        Look at where the snow storms are occurring in Southeastern Europe and western Asia. It’s the same as a hundred years ago.

        michael

      • Andy,

        I’m still waiting to see the first person say that B. Gates has convinced them of his climate panic. He’s convinced that every cherry-picked factoid he finds points to a climate catastrophe. He should read Feynman’s warning that the easiest one to fool is yourself.

        Me, I listen to what Planet Earth is saying. She’s not the least bit worried, so why should we be?

    • Brandon,
      Yes, there is nothing to be concerned about. 30 or even 50 year records are not long enough to make any conclusions about climatic trends. Especially when they are so tiny and collected with instruments incapable of measuring to the level of accuracy you show. To compound the problems the software used to model and crunch all that data was written by people with little or no training in software engineering. The output of such unverified software should be considered unreliable at the very least. So relax and stop drinking the koolaide.

      • Paul Penrose,

        Yes, there is nothing to be concerned about.

        Ok, what a relief.

        30 or even 50 year records are not long enough to make any conclusions about climatic trends.

        Wait … you just told me there was nothing to worry about.

        Especially when they are so tiny and collected with instruments incapable of measuring to the level of accuracy you show.

        Sounds like we’re both in the dark then.

        To compound the problems the software used to model and crunch all that data was written by people with little or no training in software engineering.

        That really does not put my mind at ease.

        The output of such unverified software should be considered unreliable at the very least.

        Seriously, that is NOT helping convince me that you have any better idea of what the future holds.

        So relax and stop drinking the koolaide.

        Funny you should say that … I was just reaching for the single-malt.

      • Brandon Gates

        I will pick the low hanging fruit. Among other things you say to Paul Penrose —

        “Sounds like we’re BOTH in the dark!”

        To which I reply — May be, but you are the only one having nightmares.

        Eugene WR Gallun

      • Not really. And I’m mainly concerned with how to get done what I think needs done, not so much what might happen if we don’t. Selfish it may be, but I’ll be dead by the time the worst of the worst imagined consequences are supposed to happen.

      • Brandon Gates

        “I’ll be dead by the time the worst of the worst of the imagined consequences are supposed to happen”

        In your reply “imagined” is the operative word.

        Eugene WR Gallun

      • “And I’m mainly concerned with how to get done what I think needs done,”

        You are, instead, wasting your time in front of a computer sprouting meaningless, purposeless, gibberish and making a fool of yourself.

        But I guess…… if that is what you think needs to be done… keep going. ;-)

        I’m sure that if you actually engaged your brain, you could find something more productive and useful… or not.

      • Eugene WR Gallun,

        In your reply “imagined” is the operative word.

        Yes, imagined, as in attempting to conceptualize a foreseen event which may or may not happen:

        1. form a mental image or concept of.
        “imagine a road trip from Philadelphia to Chicago”
        synonyms: visualize, envisage, envision, picture, see in the mind’s eye;

        There is another sense to the word, as in:

        2. suppose or assume.
        “Eugene imagines that this whole AGW thingy is a hoax because he’d rather twist other peoples’ words around than actually learn something.”
        synonyms: assume, presume, expect, take it, presuppose;

        Of course for me to presume such a thing is actually true about you also fits under the same sense of imagine, and obviously reflects my own prejudices and biases more than it does your actual motives.

      • AndyG55,

        You are, instead, wasting your time in front of a computer sprouting meaningless, purposeless, gibberish and making a fool of yourself.

        It’s not at all clear to me that you actually understand any of my substantive points on this thread as you have failed to directly rebut a single one of them.

        I’m sure that if you actually engaged your brain, you could find something more productive and useful… or not.

        Once again someone is laughably ignorant about how I actually spend most of my time on the issue of global warming: reading literature and looking at data. Even then, I can easily imagine how people who have nothing for me but vacuous replies laced with petty insults would find that a complete waste of time.

        Good grief, is it too much to ask for a witty insult? Anyone? Bueller?

      • Brandon, you have NOT made any substantive point, just endless meaningless waffle.

        You are so poorly educated that you can’t tell the difference.

        I doubt you can name one person on here that you have ever persuaded of anything.

        That is how worthless and pointless you time spent here is.

        You are the equivalent of the class clown.

    • Gates asks:

      Are you telling us that there’s nothing to be concerned about?

      Of course there are things to be concerned about!

      Lions and tigers and polar bears, Oh my! The sky is falling! The world is flat and you could fall off the edge! President Hillary! Obama running the UN! Irregularity!

      I can think of lots of scary things. But “climate change” isn’t one of them. ☺

    • Brandon: you quote from the blurb: “He presents alarming images of ice-cap meltdowns”. Does that mean you believe the dramatic scenes of glaciers melting/calving in the header sequence? Secondly, do you believe that the film, “The Day After Tomorrow” was also a documentary?

      • Harry Passfield,

        Does that mean you believe the dramatic scenes of glaciers melting/calving in the header sequence?

        I don’t remember the opening sequence, but I doubt it was fake footage. Doesn’t matter, what I think you’re asking me is whether I realize that glacier calving was going on before we started emitting CO2. Which I do.

        Secondly, do you believe that the film, “The Day After Tomorrow” was also a documentary?

        No, and in fact I annoyed the hell out of everyone watching it with me telling them how bogus it was.

      • Brandon: How very “conventient” you don’t remember the opening sequence – yet you’re not bothered to look it up. Perhaps you should do so with this report in mind. as it – and many others, including the director of The Day After etc – claim plagiarism by Gore. Of course, this one lie in his movie should be enough to invalidate it, but a Judge in the UK said there were NINE failings. what value to you place on that heap of Inconvenient ‘ordure’ now, Brandon.

      • Harry Passfield,

        How convenient for you that you think you know what goes on in other people’s heads. But for what it’s worth, let’s talk about stuff neither of us can prove instead of sticking to what can be argued by independently available data.

        I don’t remember the opening sequence because I only saw it once. While I thought it was good film making I personally thought it was emotionally overwrought, a second helping wasn’t something I was or am interested in. I know now that there were a substantial number of inaccuracies and overstatements — you say nine significant ones, a figure I’m prepared to accept — so overall I don’t hold a good opinion of the film.

      • Brandon: When you say:

        I don’t remember the opening sequence because I only saw it once. While I thought it was good film making I personally thought it was emotionally overwrought, a second helping wasn’t something I was or am interested in.Yet, earlier in this thread you praised the same film and thought many of its points were well made. Hah! You’re effectively sticking your finger in your ears and going “lalalalalalalala”. Your mind is closed. what a failed person you are. Shame.

      • EDIT:
        Brandon: When you say:

        I don’t remember the opening sequence because I only saw it once. While I thought it was good film making I personally thought it was emotionally overwrought, a second helping wasn’t something I was or am interested in.

        Yet, earlier in this thread you praised the same film and thought many of its points were well made. Hah! You’re effectively sticking your finger in your ears and going “lalalalalalalala”. Your mind is closed. what a failed person you are. Shame.

      • Harry Passfield,

        “I don’t remember the opening sequence because I only saw it once. While I thought it was good film making I personally thought it was emotionally overwrought, a second helping wasn’t something I was or am interested in.”

        Yet, earlier in this thread you praised the same film and thought many of its points were well made.

        Here is exactly what I wrote about the film in my first post: I could do without much of Mr. Gore’s (and CBS’) hyperbole and appeals to Polar Bears, but from literature I gather …

        Where’s the contradiction again?

        Your mind is closed. what a failed person you are. Shame.

        … says the guy who wandered into a science discussion armed mainly with schoolyard taunts and a “talent” for building strawmen.

      • “A talent for building strawmen”??

        Gates has no mirrors in his home, I presume. He wrote upthread:

        …what I think you’re asking me is whether I realize that glacier calving was going on before we started emitting CO2. Which I do.

        That’s a textbook example of erecting a strawman and knocking it down. What HP meant was what he wrote, and “CO2” isn’t in it. The strawman came along later.

      • Pretty thin Stealey. Look, I know Anthony’s argument is weak because it inaccurately portrays Mr. Gore’s film as being mostly about the relationship between CO2 and lower tropospheric temperatures as estimated by modelling atmospheric microwave emissions from satellites. I’d be embarrassed by it if I were you too. But guess what, hen-pecking me with trivial claptrap and petulant insults aren’t going to fix the fact that the original article is more or less … crap.

    • Ok fine yourself, have you got a cure for that 50% of the worlds population that has no internet access and/or are living under dictatorships ?

      • u.k(us) “Ok fine yourself, have you got a cure for that 50% of the worlds population that has no internet access and/or are living under dictatorships ?”

        BG- “Airstrikes are a popular option these days.”

        Aphan-You want us to conduct airstrikes on the 50% of the world’s population that has no internet access and/or are living under dictatorships?

      • Welllll …. it would solve the overpopulation problem we greenies are always on about ….

        [visibletags]
        [/sarc]
        [/visibletags]

    • NH sea ice is behaving EXACTLY as would be prescribed by the phase of the AMO.

      Heck you can even see the uptick starting in the volume graph since about 2007.

      and UAH NoPol shows the cooling starting.

      • And , of course, everybody KNOWS that Arctic sea ice is still ANOMOLOUSLY HIGH compared to most of the rest of the current interglacial.

        During the first 3/4 of the Holocene, summer sea ice levels of ZERO were quite NORMAL

        But of course , if the ignorant alarmista want to concentrate on a very short period at the end of a SLIGHT warming out of the COLDEST period in the last few thousand years. who am I to stop them making fools of themselves.

        I hope Big Al can provide them a nice dark crevasse to crawl back into as Arctic sea ice levels start to climb again over the next several years. :-)

    • Go ahead, be very very frightened.
      Panic if you want.
      There was no natural world prior to 1950,1975 nor 2002.?
      Brandon Gates, classic chicken little choosing of time period, you are displaying the rather odd logic of a modern progressive, willful ignorance of human history, geology and even our very short weather records.
      If you want to beat your self up and pray to the idols of your own choosing go ahead.
      The only thing you have “impressed upon” this reader is your gullibility.

      Omens, signs and idiocy.
      What would your reaction to the 1926-27 Mississippi Flood be, if it occurred this year?
      Brandon it may surprise you to learn but I care not what you “know” I care what you can prove.
      Where is the evidence?
      Projecting linear trends onto cyclic systems is pretty stupid.
      Your subject changing skills and long winded diversionary attempts(trolling skill) do not indicate you are quite that stupid.
      So are you paid by the word?
      Or a legend in your own mind?

      Don’t disappoint me now, first the straw man argument, then the squirrel, followed by “authorities” of you choosing.

      May you have an enlightening New Year

      • John Robertson,

        There was no natural world prior to 1950,1975 nor 2002.?

        Don’t be silly.

        Don’t disappoint me now, first the straw man argument …

        [looks up at John’s handywork … shrugs … reads on]

        … then the squirrel …

        [no squirrels here except the one John is chasing]

        … followed by “authorities” of you choosing.

        Yeah, representative democracy, such a drag innit.

        Hey now, one good scarecrow deserves another.

    • Brandon The elephants, hippos and alligators that lived up near the North pole during the last inter-glacial thought the lack of ice was a good thing. They were not concerned, why should we be.

      • Sea levels were 3-7 meters higher during the Eemian for starters. If Miami, New Orleans, Galveston, etc. had been built 122,000 years ago, that obviously wouldn’t have been a problem. But they weren’t.

      • As John Robertson wrote:

        Don’t disappoint me now, first the straw man argument, then the squirrel, followed by “authorities” of you choosing.

    • “The thing which I wish to impress upon you and your readers is that knowing whether we’ve reached a “tipping-point” for “irreversible” landed ice loss is not something I can “know” just from looking at the scant amount of additional data I have offered for consideration. Guesstimating the future state(s) of a physical system requires a model, period, full stop, end of story.”

      Here’s the thing that one of his readers would like to impress upon you is that you also cannot “KNOW” that we’ve reached a “tipping-point” for “irreversible landed ice loss” from a “guesstimation of the future state(s) of a physical system generated by ANY OF OUR CURRENT MODELS, period, full stop, end of story.

      Guesstimation: “It is defined as an estimate made without using adequate or complete information, or, more strongly, as an estimate arrived at by guesswork or conjecture.”

      The guesstimations involved in our current models is what produces projections/predictions that are invalid beyond 24-48 hours into the future. Anything beyond that becomes even MORE inaccurate as time goes on. So what exactly can you possibly KNOW about the future state of this planet?

      • Aphan,

        Here’s the thing that one of his readers would like to impress upon you is that you also cannot “KNOW” that we’ve reached a “tipping-point” for “irreversible landed ice loss” from a “guesstimation of the future state(s) of a physical system generated by ANY OF OUR CURRENT MODELS, period, full stop, end of story.

        I would tend to agree with you about that more than I wouldn’t.

        Guesstimation: “It is defined as an estimate made without using adequate or complete information, or, more strongly, as an estimate arrived at by guesswork or conjecture.”

        I agree with that definition. Problem is, I know of no universal authority on what constitutes “adequate information”, and wouldn’t accept one if there was. I reserve the right to form my own opinions based on what I read in literature and data that I study on my own.

        The guesstimations involved in our current models is what produces projections/predictions that are invalid beyond 24-48 hours into the future.

        Sure … and you definitely wouldn’t catch me swearing to the reliability of a weather model much past a few days, and certainly not 99.99% accuracy over any time period.

        Anything beyond that becomes even MORE inaccurate as time goes on.

        Something Lorenz compellingly argued in 1963 with respect to weather: http://eaps4.mit.edu/research/Lorenz/Deterministic_63.pdf

        So what exactly can you possibly KNOW about the future state of this planet?

        I think that’s a bit of a loaded question, Aphan; nobody KNOWs for certain what will happen in the future. However, I do believe we can make some reasonable guesses. Let me give you an example. I think we’d both agree it would have been ridiculous for me to say on New Year’s Day in 1871 that the low temperature in Toronto on New Year’s Eve 2015 would be 0.6 degrees Celsius, and that the high temperature in Toronto on the same day would be 1.8 degrees Celsius with 95% confidence. Totally ludicrous, right? Right.

        On the other hand, I could have said in 1871, with 95% confidence, based on observations for the month of December between 1841-1870 [1] that I expect the min temperature on 12/31/2015 to lie between -18.08 and 4.84 degrees Celsius, and the max temperature on the same day to lie between -9.51 and 9.51 degrees Celsius. And in this case I would have been right.

        “Aha,” you say, “but how many times would you have been wrong for the entire month of December, 2015?” Well, since December, 2015 temperatures are now a matter of record, I can tell you:

        http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/ngdcnCA006158355.dat
        
        # Searching for GHCND series nr CA006158355
        # coordinates:  43.67N,  -79.40E,    113.0m; GHCN-D station code: CA006158355 TORONTO_CITY,_ON Canada
        # WMO station 71508
        # TMIN GHCN-D V2.0 data with QC in [Celsius] 
        # The non-U.S. data cannot be redistributed within or outside of the U.S. for any commercial activities.
        
         2015 12 10      5.10
         2015 12 11      5.10
         2015 12 14      5.20
         2015 12 24      6.50
        
        http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/xgdcnCA006158355.dat
        
        # Searching for GHCND series nr CA006158355
        # coordinates:  43.67N,  -79.40E,    113.0m; GHCN-D station code: CA006158355 TORONTO_CITY,_ON Canada
        # WMO station 71508
        # TMAX GHCN-D V2.0 data with QC in [Celsius] 
        # The non-U.S. data cannot be redistributed within or outside of the U.S. for any commercial activities.
        
         2015 12 10     11.50
         2015 12 11     14.00
         2015 12 14     13.30
         2015 12 16     10.60
         2015 12 17     10.60
         2015 12 18     10.60
         2015 12 24     14.40
         2015 12 25     10.20

        So I was wrong 4 days out of 21 recorded for Tmin, and 8 days out of 21 recorded for Tmax, or 20% of the time for Tmin and 40% of the time for Tmax whereas I was expecting to be wrong 5% of the time. Not too shabby for a prediction made 145 years into the future on 30 years worth of December min/max temperatures based on the assumption of no change in climatic factors. However, it IS large enough of a deviation from my prediction to hypothesize that some climatic change has in fact occurred.

        I’ll wait for you to respond before discussing further.

        —————

        [1] Data for the 30-year historical 1841-1870 climatology taken from here:

        TORONTO,_ON (Canada)
        coordinates: 43.67N, -79.40E, 113.0m
        GHCN-D station code: CA006158350 (get data)
        WMO station: 71266
        Found 164 years of data in 1840-2003

        Tmax: http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/xgdcnCA006158350.dat
        Tmin: http://climexp.knmi.nl/data/ngdcnCA006158350.dat

      • BG
        You MUST stop the following behavior.

        I said-“So what exactly can you possibly KNOW about the future state of this planet?”

        I asked a very specific question related to the future state of this planet?

        BG-“I think that’s a bit of a loaded question, Aphan; nobody KNOWs for certain what will happen in the future. However, I do believe we can make some reasonable guesses”

        First, I didn’t ask you what you can possibly KNOW about the future. I asked you what you can possibly KNOW about the future state of this planet. So YOU changed my question and then attempted to answer your own adaptation of my question.

        Second, the definition of a false analogy is “a rhetorical fallacy that uses an analogy (comparing objects or ideas with similar characteristics) to support an argument, but the conclusion made by it is not supported by the analogy due to the differences between the two objects.”

        So, you first changed my question into something else, and then attempted to “defeat” your adaptation-that’s called a strawman. I’m not saying you did it on purpose, I’m just saying that’s what you did.

        THEN you just used an analogy about predicting the WEATHER in Toronto on a specific date and time to support your argument that we can make reasonable guesses about the future. It DOES support the conclusion that we can make reasonable guesses about what the weather in Toronto will be at a future date. But that is ALL it supports.

        Do you understand?

      • Aphan,

        You MUST stop the following behavior.

        My activities here are at the pleasure of Mr. Watts and his designated moderation team. I mustn’t stop doing anything but what they ask me to stop. Thanks.

        I asked a very specific question related to the future state of this planet?

        I don’t think that’s specific at all. This planet has as many parameters as our collective intellect is capable of defining and then some, which I allude to in my statement at the beginning of this subthread: Guesstimating the future state(s) of a physical system requires a model, period, full stop, end of story.

        Ya’ see, this is MY argument that I am making here about the predictive (in)abilities of physical (and now statistical) models, and I’m under no obligation whatsoever to accede to what you think that argument should be.

        First, I didn’t ask you what you can possibly KNOW about the future. I asked you what you can possibly KNOW about the future state of this planet.

        Since the future states of the set of all Earth’s parameters will occur … in the future … how is it NOT correct for me rephrase that to: nobody KNOWs for certain what will happen in the future.?

        So YOU changed my question and then attempted to answer your own adaptation of my question.

        Nope, I didn’t change a thing. You asked: So what exactly can you possibly KNOW about the future state of this planet?

        My answer still is: … nobody KNOWs for certain what will happen in the future.

        … which includes all states of any conceivable parameter of the planet’s physical being … or not being as the case may be.

        [snip]

        THEN you just used an analogy about predicting the WEATHER in Toronto on a specific date and time to support your argument that we can make reasonable guesses about the future. It DOES support the conclusion that we can make reasonable guesses about what the weather in Toronto will be at a future date. But that is ALL it supports.

        Do you understand?

        No, because I can use the same method for temperature in Atlanta too.

        Do YOU understand … yet?

      • BG-“My activities here are at the pleasure of Mr. Watts and his designated moderation team. I mustn’t stop doing anything but what they ask me to stop. Thanks.”

        Forgive me, you’re right. Let me amend what I said previously-

        “You MUST stop the following behavior.” Should read “You MUST stop the following behavior if you want to appear rational and keep me from busting your chops. ”

        I said -“I asked a very specific question related to the future state of this planet?”

        BG- “I don’t think that’s specific at all.”

        Really? Because its a lot more specific than just asking a question about the future in general….which can mean the future of anything, anywhere.

        BG- “This planet has as many parameters as our collective intellect is capable of defining and then some, which I allude to in my statement at the beginning of this subthread: Guesstimating the future state(s) of a physical system requires a model, period, full stop, end of story.”

        And I addressed that statement earlier and my conclusion-the question about what you can KNOW about the future of this planet-had many other premises to support it.

        BG” Ya’ see, this is MY argument that I am making here about the predictive (in)abilities of physical (and now statistical) models, and I’m under no obligation whatsoever to accede to what you think that argument should be.”

        Again, basing your argument about what will happen to the climate of this planet, based upon conjectures, assumptions and predictions from models that are KNOWN to be flawed, results in a conclusion that is irrational and illogical in view of the actual EVIDENCE recorded in the geological record of this planet. If what you or anyone else tells me about the planet is in direct opposition to the what the evidence produced by and on the planet tells me about the planet, I’m sorry, but I HAVE to go with what the evidence tells me. Because I value what it tells me more than what you tell me. Sorry. Just how things are.

        [snip]
        ?? Did you type that or did something not meet “the pleasure of Mr. Watts and his designated moderation team.”?

        I said “THEN you just used an analogy about predicting the WEATHER in Toronto on a specific date and time to support your argument that we can make reasonable guesses about the future. It DOES support the conclusion that we can make reasonable guesses about what the weather in Toronto will be at a future date. But that is ALL it supports. Do you understand?”

        BG said “No, because I can use the same method for temperature in Atlanta too.”

        Well then I guess its beyond your ability to understand the difference between the weather which “is the state of the atmosphere at a place (toronto/atlanta) and time (New Years Day, or a range of dates close to it) as regards heat, dryness, sunshine, wind, rain, etc” and the CLIMATE which is “the weather conditions prevailing in an area in general or over a long period.”

        It is illogical to assume that because you can make reasonable guesses about the future weather that you can also make reasonable guesses about the future climate based upon the reasonable guesses you’ve made about the weather. If your mother has predicted the exact duration of every single bout of the flu she’s ever had, do you also then believe she is capable of predicting the exact duration of any other illness that presents symptoms similar to those of the flu?

        No it’s not a projection that I secretly think the earth is suffering from an illness so don’t even go there. If anything, I find your thinking suffers from an illness that make or may not be chronic. We shall see.

      • Aphan,

        Forgive me, you’re right.

        Accepted, no worries.

        Really? Because its a lot more specific than just asking a question about the future in general….which can mean the future of anything, anywhere.

        True. However within the context of this discussion — modelling physical systems — we are naturally limited to a finite number parameters to model. So while it’s logically defensible to say that to accurately predict the future state of Earth we should take into consideration plausible future states of the universe, as a practical matter what’s going on right here in the Solar System is quite enough to have on our plate.

        And I addressed that statement earlier and my conclusion-the question about what you can KNOW about the future of this planet-had many other premises to support it.

        I answered your question as best I understood how. As there is apparently something I’m not getting, perhaps it’s time for you to state your premises and make an explicit argument.

        Again, basing your argument about what will happen to the climate of this planet, based upon conjectures, assumptions and predictions from models that are KNOWN to be flawed, results in a conclusion that is irrational and illogical in view of the actual EVIDENCE recorded in the geological record of this planet.

        I don’t agree because I do not think it is irrational to make predictions about the future based on limited knowledge. Same goes for “flawed” models, for I subscribe to the George E. P. Box notion that all models are wrong, but some are useful. You don’t get to choose for me which models I accept as useful or not. OTOH, it’s fine for you to ask me why I think a specific model is useful. Then I believe there is a basis for you to question my logic.

        As I mentioned before, I’ve done quite a bit of study on our estimates of past climate states — which necessarily has involved reading some geology. I find no inherent contradiction. Doesn’t mean there isn’t one. You’re going to have to be specific about what you think the flaw is, simply arguing that the geological record contradicts my stated understanding of AGW doesn’t do anything for me.

        [snip]
        ?? Did you type that or did something not meet “the pleasure of Mr. Watts and his designated moderation team.”?

        Oh heh, no. Simply means that I clipped some of your comments … old habit from my time on Usenet.

        Well then I guess its beyond your ability to understand the difference between the weather which “is the state of the atmosphere at a place (toronto/atlanta) and time (New Years Day, or a range of dates close to it) as regards heat, dryness, sunshine, wind, rain, etc” and the CLIMATE which is “the weather conditions prevailing in an area in general or over a long period.”

        I’m sorry, I don’t follow that at all. The whole point of that exercise was to demonstrate the difference between weather (in this context, the min/max temps on a particular day in a given location) and climate (in this context, the probability that a daily min/max temperature will fall within some statistically determined range over the course of a particular month in a given location).

        It is illogical to assume that because you can make reasonable guesses about the future weather that you can also make reasonable guesses about the future climate based upon the reasonable guesses you’ve made about the weather.

        I wasn’t guessing future weather …

        On the other hand, I could have said in 1871, with 95% confidence, based on observations for the month of December between 1841-1870 that I expect the min temperature on 12/31/2015 to lie between -18.08 and 4.84 degrees Celsius, and the max temperature on the same day to lie between -9.51 and 9.51 degrees Celsius.

        … was I? As compared to this …

        I think we’d both agree it would have been ridiculous for me to say on New Year’s Day in 1871 that the low temperature in Toronto on New Year’s Eve 2015 would be 0.6 degrees Celsius, and that the high temperature in Toronto on the same day would be 1.8 degrees Celsius with 95% confidence.

        … you’re not seeing the difference?

        If your mother has predicted the exact duration of every single bout of the flu she’s ever had, do you also then believe she is capable of predicting the exact duration of any other illness that presents symptoms similar to those of the flu?

        No of course not. Not least because even “the flu” itself is caused by many different strains of the influenza virus, which are all constantly mutating. And since flu is often accompanied by a secondary bacterial infection due to the immune system being taxed by the viral infection, there are all sorts of possible combinations of those things which may or may not be contracted during or after the viral phase.

        The shorter answer is: my mother would not make such a prediction because she knows better than that, and taught me better than to think that way about the flu … and infectious disease in general.

        Now, making a prediction about the average duration and/or the expected range of durations for a particular strain of influenza in a substantial population of people is a different story IF there were already a significant number of cases on record from which to compile the statistics …

        If anything, I find your thinking suffers from an illness that make or may not be chronic.

        Your opinion is noted, but I hardly see how that opinion is relevant to the truth value of my arguments. I could be a certifiably bat$h!t crazy loony toon and still be right.

        When you’re ready to get back to me continuing my argument about why I think climate predictions are reasonably useful in lieu of commenting about your findings on my alleged mental condition(s), or how long my cold is going to last, just go ahead and let me know. Ciao for now.

      • May I suggest that you pick up a cheap copy of a book called “Global Warming, Alarmists, Skeptics and Deniers, A geoscientist looks at the science of climate change” It’s an easy read, VERY clear, loaded with citations, and gives you perspective about how the planet itself changes the climate. From tectonic plate movements, to volcanoes, to the oceans, to the ROCK we live on. Earth science is where I came into the climate debate from. It’s my foundation. And because of what I KNOW and UNDERSTAND about the Earth, the physical planet, it’s so much easier to see the logic fails in trying to think that the AIR controls anything on this rock. Putting the past 150 years of “temperatures” into it’s proper context, which is MILLIONS of years old, one realizes darn quick that in all of the geological physical records-rocks, trees, ice cores, sediment cores, fossils, Co2 has never, not once, been guilty of changing the climate.

        But someone, or a group of someone’s, has convinced you that something that has NEVER happened on this planet, CAN/WILL happen in the future. Those people simply cannot understand the evidence that exists, or they haven’t seen it, or they are ignoring it. BASED on the evidence, that people like Mike Mann and Cook and others NEVER talks about, we can KNOW that temperatures have increased FASTER and to a greater degree in the past than they have in the past 150 years. That the “modern temperature record” doesn’t contain it is MEANINGLESS because the earth recorded it, over and over and over again. At no point in the past did HUGE concentrations of Co2 in the atmosphere cause runaway global warming!!! At what point does Co2 get removed as a probability factor?

        If you look at Earth’s history, we are currently in a period of the LOWEST concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere that have existed on this planet. THE LOWEST. The earth and it’s system is far more accustomed to higher Co2 than it is lower.

      • Aphan,

        May I suggest that you pick up a cheap copy of a book called “Global Warming, Alarmists, Skeptics and Deniers, A geoscientist looks at the science of climate change”.

        http://www.amazon.com/Global-Warming-Alarmists-Skeptics-Deniers-Geoscientist/dp/1937327035

        Yes, I have seen this book, but not read it. Unfortunately there is no free preview of the actual text, but Dr. Robinson does provide a summary, to which I have some responses:

        From the Author
        As a young geology instructor in the 1970s, I informed my students of satellite images showing expanding snow cover in North America compared to previous years. I advised them to remain skeptical of the claims then being made in the popular media that this heralded the beginning of the next ice age. A few years later, sensationalist articles about the coming ice age began to be replaced by others saying the earth was growing dangerously warm and we humans were to blame. Why the continuing exaggerations about climate change I wondered, but duly brought this new scare to the attention of my classes with the same caveat as before. I thought it was just more media hype that would fade as quickly as the recent ice age scare. I was wrong. Instead of fading, global warming alarmism increased.

        Being skeptical of claims in literature, especially new ones, is good advice. However, Dr. Robinson is here speaking about popular media coverage, not primary literature. If the global cooling/global warming flip-flop in the 1970s were simply a matter of a capricious media drumming up viewship with sensationalist headlines, I would agree with his warning to take all of it with a grain of salt. Thing is, by the 1970s, AGW theory was already well-established and it was global cooling which was being amplified out of proportion to its support in literature by popular media.

        As a geologist and student of earth history, I knew that climate has always changed. Some of the changes had been disastrous, such as the mountains of ice that moved into mid-latitudes during cold phases of the great Pleistocene ice age depopulating millions of square miles. Mostly, however they were just inconsequential changes of a degree or two. The warming we were then experiencing seemed just the latest in a large number minor undulations of climate, not unusual and not unexpected after the frigid temperatures that lasted several hundred years during the recently ended Little Ice Age. Yet, people were on TV acted like climate change was unusual, something that hadn’t happened before. Obviously, they had never taken a historical geology course.

        Here’s a global reconstruction of the Pliocene and Pliestocene after Lisiecki and Raymo (2005):

        Paper is here: http://lorraine-lisiecki.com/LisieckiRaymo2005.pdf

        My comment here is similar to above: if one wants to understand what scientists are saying about science, the best source for it is primary literature — or as close to it as possible — because that’s where the science is being most directly communicated.

        For a while, not many people promoted such a view, but the few who did knew how to get attention. And other people were listening. Little did I know a mindset had taken root and started to grow.

        A great many people, particularly liberal politicians and most journalists, act as if climate change is odd, strange, extraordinary. Part of this belief system seems to be that yesterday’s climate, the preindustrial climate, was ideal, the best of all possible climates, the way nature intended it to be. It was good because it was natural, and we prospered. But now we have strayed far from the natural way, and with our meddling, have upset the balance. We are the reason climate is changing and since it is not natural, it is bad. Nature gave us a stable climate, an ideal climate, but we messed it up.

        I’m sure examples of all those arguments can be found in popular literature and news coverage because I have seen and read similar ones myself. I personally would not make any of the arguments as stated above because they don’t conform to my reading of what is actually argued in literature.

        I still have trouble coming to grips with this. Do these people not realize that the preindustrial climate was the Little Ice Age chill? Have they not heard of all the crop failures and famine over large areas of Europe? The glaciers moving down into villages, the frozen rivers, the ice-choked harbors? The year without a summer when snow fell in New England during each summer month? The slow starvation of the Viking villages in Greenland?

        Reasonable questions. Perhaps he should ask them …

        My answer is that either they do not know these things because they were never exposed to historical geology, or they ignore it in favor of ideology. They either do not know what came before or don’t care.

        … or not. His answer is two dichotomous statements in a row, not exactly what I’d expect as the result of asking a broad range of people those sorts of questions.

        The new climate alarmism that is an offshoot of the green movement, a movement I understand and in some ways, sympathize with. I became a geologist because I love the grandeur of nature and the outdoors and hate the stifling congestion of cities. However these global warming people turned it all around. Staid and unchanging is not nature’s way. The most basic thing about the earth, the first thing geologists learn, is that the only thing constant in nature is change. It can be at such a languid pace that, even over one’s full lifetime, it’s hard to detect, but it can also be catastrophic. Whether hare or tortoise, geologic change can’t be stopped, yet it seemed to me that’s what global warming alarmists sought.

        Curious argument, as I am not aware of any plans being discussed to attempt to halt geologic changes on geological scales of time.

        Earth history clearly teaches that a static earth has never existed. Our planet is one of the most active bodies in the solar system. All kinds of things constantly change, including weather patterns and climate. Still, natural change does not preclude the possibility that human activities might also cause change. Perhaps, I thought, my own predisposition toward natural change was preventing me from impartially assessing the global warming theory. Maybe powerful evidence supported it. With this in mind, I began to study the scientific literature. To my surprise, I found very little direct evidence that humans were influencing climate. Most of what was offered as evidence was based on the predictions of computer climate models, rather than actual observed data or experimental results. It was as if a weather forecast saying sunny skies for the weekend had been elevated to a greater importance than the rain that actually fell. What was going on here?

        Emphasis mine, because it’s the first argument he’s made here that I 100% agree with, and one that I often make in this very forum.

        Geologists apply the principle of uniformity to learn about earth history. It has proven to be a reliable guide for what is likely to happen in the future. For global warming alarmists, instead of the past that is living, it’s the future. All their dire warnings are based on computer climate model predictions of things that might or might not happen.

        Well now, that IS an argument that only a geologist could make. Uniformitarianism, as opposed to catastrophism was once a contentious debate in the field. Presently, uniformity is the prevailing thinking in geology and other sciences — essentially that all physical laws now are constant across time and space, and therefore that physical processes can be expected to have occurred (or to occur) at with a similar magnitude and rate in the past (or future) as they do in the present under similar conditions.

        Uniformity is, in the broadest sense of the word, a model — a basis for how things are generally assumed to work. And as I have mentioned before, making predictions about the future state(s) of a physical system require a model — in the narrower sense of a discrete set of specific rules which can be uniformly applied across a wide range of input parameters.

        Period, full stop, end of story. There is no other way to do it.

        To geologists like me, something vital is missing in this procedure, what we know happened in the past. A vast amount of this sort of data is available, but computer models use none of it to churn out their predictions. Real information, won at great cost and effort, is ignored in favor of predictions. This is not how science is supposed to work. I learned during my years in graduate school that many things in science are important, but above all is the data. We must honor the data, treat it impartially, let it lead us where it will, allow it to illuminate our way toward better theories. This is the only path that will lead to the light of real knowledge, real progress. This new method of science elevates computer predictions above real data. If the data doesn’t agree with the computer forecast, then something must be wrong with the data. Better check it again and find out what’s wrong.

        Emphasis mine, because the statement is not only ridiculous on the face of it, but also patently false. I only need one example to demonstrate how egregiously wrong it is, but I have several:

        1) AR5 WGI devotes an entire chapter (5) to paleoclimate obervations AND modelling: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg1/WG1AR5_Chapter05_FINAL.pdf

        2) The NOAA paleoclimate portal devotes a section to paleo modelling: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data/datasets/paleoclimatology-modeling

        Efforts to understand past climate and predict future climate change rely on computer climate models that include the physical processes of the climate system. The Paleoclimatology Program encourages the use of climate models to investigate the past and supports rigorous comparisons between the output from numerical simulations and paleoclimatology data. The World Data Center (WDC) for Paleoclimatology archives climate model input and output files, and serves as a data management center for the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project.

        3) The Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project has its own dedicated website: https://pmip.lsce.ipsl.fr/

        The aim of the PMIP project is to evaluate climate models under paleoclimate conditions and improve our understanding of past climate changes.

        The next few paragraphs don’t offer much else in the way of substance, and after such a wildly inaccurate statement, I’m pretty much out of reasons to continue reading.

    • So funny that you HAVE to rely on the downward leg of the AMO for all your NH graphs ;-)

      Going to be even funnier in the next few years as the AMO drops. ;-)

    • Brandon,

      “Guesstimating the future state(s) of a physical system requires a model, period, full stop, end of story.”

      You want us to be sure that you don’t know if we’ve reached a tipping point. We are all sure of that.

      You are convinced that models are in the business of “guesstimating”. No argument there.

      You say;”There’s a lot more to this physical system to model than just CO2 and surface temperature.”
      Here, the question is merely; can you sell that to your pals at AGW Central without them realizing you’ve been hanging with db and the heretics?

      • mebbe,

        We are all sure of that.

        Which never ceases to amaze me given all the ink spilt here talking about what “we” don’t know.

        Here, the question is merely; can you sell that to your pals at AGW Central without them realizing you’ve been hanging with db and the heretics?

        They “sell” me on it in every single paper or IPCC document which properly details the uncertainties in modelled projections.

      • Brandon
        ???
        It never ceases to amaze you that we are sure that you don’t know if we’ve reached a tipping point?

      • The idea is to not find out for sure.

        I think I know what that’s supposed to mean. But only 1 person knows for sure…

        Anyway, this seems to follow:

        “Four legs good, two legs bad
        Two legs good, four legs, better…”

        ~ G. Orwell, Animal Farm

        It’s all bad — no matter how good things appear to be. Skeptics cannot convince some folks to just calm down and chill. The rational alarmists have already been converted to being skeptics of the “dangerous AGW” hoax. All that are left are the true believers:

        “There is no evidence, none whatsoever, that will change the minds, such as they are and what there is of them, of the Global Warming Must Be Real crowd.”

        ~ A reader’s comment on a physics blog (No, it wasn’t me.)

        Any number of readers here have posted comments saying that they started out as believers in ‘dangerous man-made global warming’, and ‘man-made climate change’, etc. But I have yet to see anyone say they have been convinced, by B. Gates or by anyone similar, that there’s a major ‘man-made’ problem brewing in ‘the climate’.

        That confirms my own view that once someone catches the eco-religious virus, there isn’t enough of the effective antidote to cure them.

        The antidote of course is a mix of logic, rationality, and common sense — which everyone knows isn’t common at all. (Someone can sound very sensible, but still be wacked out.)

        When one of that crowd looks at a century and a half of the flattest global temperatures in the entire geologic record, or the fact that there is nothing either unusual or unprecedented happening (except maybe the fact that global T has been so flat and unchanging for so long), but they still conclude that we’re headed for a climate catastrophe, their conclusion is irrational.

        When they look at the alarmist prediction record and find that not one scary prediction has ever happened, but they still conclude that scary predictions are still going to come true due to human CO2 emissions (the original scare upon which all climate alarmism is based), then their conclusion is irrational.

        When they look at all the evidence showing that the substantial rise in CO2 has been enormously beneficial and is greening the planet, and they still cannot find evidence of any global harm from the added CO2, but they still preach doom… then their conclusion is irrational.

        When alarmists look at the pre-Holocene record and see temperatures change within a decade or two by ten whole degrees or more, and they still conclude that the past century’s ≈0.7ºC wiggle is cause for alarm, their conclusion is plainly irrational.

        I could go on, but everyone gets the picture: All the evidence, data, facts, measurements and observations mean nothing at all to those who are emotionally invested in believing in the climate scare.

        Fear is a very powerful emotion, as is religion. The alarmist crowd uses their “But what if…” argument constantly to justify their emo-based fear. Their cherry-picking, strawman arguments, appeals to corrupted authorities, noble cause corruption, and all the other false arguments they use are based on emotion, not on observations, facts, and logic. They see a century of almost perfect, enviable, flat global temperatures… and then decide that there’s a catastrophe right around the corner.

        You can convince rational folks, whether they’re skeptics or climate alarmists. But you can’t convince the emo-alarmists. Logic, rational arguments, and scientific evidence, and common sense are all impotent against their fears.

      • dbstealey,

        Any number of readers here have posted comments saying that they started out as believers in ‘dangerous man-made global warming’, and ‘man-made climate change’, etc. But I have yet to see anyone say they have been convinced, by B. Gates or by anyone similar, that there’s a major ‘man-made’ problem brewing in ‘the climate’.

        That confirms my own view …

        Did you consider the possibility that those who may have been convinced by B. Gates or anyone similar decided they would be better off spending their time on more scientifically reliable websites?

        Personally, I’ve learned a thing or two from Brandon Gates’ comments. He’s much more knowledgeable than most of the frequent commenters here would like to give him credit for. Actually, he’s more knowledgeable about the subject of climate change than I would expect anyone of casual interest to be, which leads me to believe that he spends a great deal of time reading about it. The rest of the regulars here would do well to take him more seriously when discussing scientific research.

        It’s always disheartening to see those who claim to understand the importance of evidence and reason intentionally devolve conversations into ad-hom attacks on those they disagree with. It makes a good show for the less informed, but does not make for honest or compelling discussion. I appreciate Gates’ efforts on these forums for being honest, precise, and often entertaining to read. Despite dbstealey and others’ recent assertions, I bet more than a few people have been inspired by Gates’ comments to be more skeptical of what they read on the internet, to ask more questions, and to check the sources. I know I have.

      • jon writes:

        Did you consider the possibility that those who may have been convinced by B. Gates or anyone similar decided they would be better off spending their time on more scientifically reliable websites?

        What other site is “more scientifically reliable” than Anthony Watts’ WUWT? This site has won the internet’s Best Science & Technology Weblog Award for the past three years running, and other awards (see the right sidebar). No alarmist blog comes close to having WUWT’s traffic numbers. In fact, all the climate alarmist blogs combined have less traffic than WUWT. And articles and comments here are regularly posted by experts in the field, and in related fields in the hard sciences. You just don’t like the ‘consensus’.

        And you’re a B. Gates fanboy. Good for you; different opinions are what makes a market. Gates is also knowledgeable as you said. But he appears to be blind to facts that show there’s nothing unusual or unprecedented happening; that there isn’t a single measurement of AGW, and that the past 150 years has about the most perfect global temperature stability found in the entire global temperature record. How someone can turn those facts into a climate scare is something of a mystery. And you add:

        Despite dbstealey and others’ recent assertions…

        Speaking for myself, I bend over backward to try and support my position, so it’s far more than mere “assertions”. Assertions are what you’re doing. But I’ll give you a break because you might be new here: state your scientific position, using facts, evidence, observations, and measurements. That’s the right starting point.

        We can go from there, and see who is more convincing. Or, you can just sit in the peanut gallery and take sides based on emotion, belief, or whatever motivates you. Me, I’ll go with what Planet Earth is telling us. Because she’s never been wrong yet.

      • “Me, I’ll go with what Planet Earth is telling us. Because she’s never been wrong yet.”

        Well she’s not doing what the computer models say she should be doing, so clearly, she’s WRONG now!
        *grin*

      • “I bet more than a few people have been inspired by Gates’ comments to be more skeptical of what they read on the internet, to ask more questions”

        Yep, and the more you look at the data.. the more you become sceptical of his comments. ;-)

        Now off you go, Jon, and kiss his feet !

      • Jon-“Personally, I’ve learned a thing or two from Brandon Gates’ comments.”

        Good for you. If we take a poll, I’m sure many posters here would admit that they have as well.

        ” He’s much more knowledgeable than most of the frequent commenters here would like to give him credit for.” Ad-hom. You have no idea what most of the frequent commenters here would or would not like to do.

        ” Actually, he’s more knowledgeable about the subject of climate change than I would expect anyone of casual interest to be, which leads me to believe that he spends a great deal of time reading about it.”

        He seems fairly well educated on the basics of the climate, but he seems to have no education or knowledge about geology and how the EARTH will or will not respond to climate changes, based upon how the EARTH has changed in the past. It’s a well observed problem in people who focus more fully, or even solely on, the atmosphere of this planet, (the climatology) instead of focusing equally on all of the information we have from all of the “ologies”.

        “The rest of the regulars here would do well to take him more seriously when discussing scientific research.”

        When BG discusses scientific research, if he sticks to what we CAN know from that research , he is taken seriously. The more he sticks to the evidence, the more seriously he will be taken. We don’t take opinions seriously here. Not his. Not our own. Not yours. If you think we should, please explain why.

        “It’s always disheartening to see those who claim to understand the importance of evidence and reason intentionally devolve conversations into ad-hom attacks on those they disagree with. It makes a good show for the less informed, but does not make for honest or compelling discussion.”

        Its always been ironic, amusing, perplexing to me when someone brings up how negative and insulting ad-hom attacks are…in the middle of an ad-hom attack on someone else. Like yours here on the “regulars” here, DB, etc. Isn’t your ad-hom argument (which lacks evidence and reason) just as “intentionally devolving this conversation”, dishonest and uncompelling as anyone else’s?

        Jon “Did you consider the possibility that those who may have been convinced by B. Gates or anyone similar decided they would be better off spending their time on more scientifically reliable websites?”

        It’s a possibility, but it’s really hard to prove because no one here has ever indicated such a thing by posting it here! I can only guess that perhaps that’s why DB said “Any number of readers herehave posted comments saying that they started out as believers in ‘dangerous man-made global warming’, and ‘man-made climate change’, etc. But I have yet to see anyone say they have been convinced, by B. Gates or by anyone similar, that there’s a major ‘man-made’ problem brewing in ‘the climate’.” Instead of saying “I wonder what the possibilities are…..regarding people who no longer post here…who never said anything….”

        Yeah, I’m a chops buster, but I tend to only bust the chops of people who engage in illogical, irrational arguments while attempting to make someone else look irrational and illogical. Its a hypocrite thing. It bugs me.

      • Alpan,

        I think you are exaggerating my use of ad-homs, but you may want to check your own. Furthermore, the question in the beginning of my email was clearly addressed to dbstealey, who is more than capable of answering it himself, as he has already done. Sort of.

        The part of my comment about discussions that should be about evidence and reason devolving into something less was not an argument at all. Do I need to prove with evidence and reason that this is disheartening to me? Do I need to prove that name-calling is not compelling discussion? Do you even disagree with what I said in that part?

        You finish your email by opining that my “arguments” are irrational and illogical, and essentially accusing me of hypocrisy. Nice. Stay classy, Alpan.

        The rest,

        Me defending Gates here does not make him my hero, nor me his fanboy. I appreciate what he does on this website. Simple as that. Seemed to me that there was a lot more ganging up on him in this thread than usual, so I just wanted to drop a reminder that what you think of Brandon is just, like, your opinion, man.

        Also, when you guys talk about how important facts, logic, evidence, and so on are here on WUWT, and then I scroll down and see this:

        Well, it makes it just about impossible to take you seriously.

      • Jon-

        “I think you are exaggerating my use of ad-homs, but you may want to check your own. Furthermore, the question in the beginning of my email was clearly addressed to dbstealey, who is more than capable of answering it himself, as he has already done. Sort of.”

        Insinuating that I was exaggerating your use of ad-homs, is the equivalent of adding another ad-hom to your previous ad-homs. Brilliant logic.

        I said nothing about dbstealey or his capabilities. What insinuation/logical fallacy caused you to bring either one into your reply to me?

        “The part of my comment about discussions that should be about evidence and reason devolving into something less was not an argument at all. Do I need to prove with evidence and reason that this is disheartening to me? Do I need to prove that name-calling is not compelling discussion? Do you even disagree with what I said in that part?”

        Nope. Of course not. That is a logical statement. Inserting a logical statement that demonstrates that you DO know the difference between being logical and being illogical, into an overall otherwise illogical and irrational comment only highlights the fact that you know better, but don’t care.

        “You finish your email by opining that my “arguments” are irrational and illogical, and essentially accusing me of hypocrisy.”

        NOPE. I did not write an EMAIL. I posted on a blog. I finished that post by saying:

        “Yeah, I’m a chops buster, but I tend to only bust the chops of people who engage in illogical, irrational arguments while attempting to make someone else look irrational and illogical. Its a hypocrite thing. It bugs me.”

        Do you see the difference between what I actually, empirically said AND what you interpreted/insinuated/illogically implied that I said, or do I need to explain that to you as well?

        “Nice. Stay classy, Alpan.”

        Perfect! You can’t even BE classy while telling me to “stay classy”. You demonstrated again, that you ARE a hypocrite. No one has to bother accusing you of being one.

        “Me defending Gates here does not make him my hero, nor me his fanboy. I appreciate what he does on this website. Simple as that. Seemed to me that there was a lot more ganging up on him in this thread than usual, so I just wanted to drop a reminder that what you think of Brandon is just, like, your opinion, man.”

        Never said anything that could be LOGICALLY used to imply otherwise. So why are you bringing this up to me?

        “Also, when you guys talk about how important facts, logic, evidence, and so on are here on WUWT, and then I scroll down and see this: (ugly Al Gore photo) Well, it makes it just about impossible to take you seriously.”

        So when comments are obviously illogical and irrational, you find it just about impossible to take them seriously? GOOD. NO ONE with any real intelligence WOULD or SHOULD take them seriously either. None of the regulars here DO. It does not matter what the TOPIC is: be it a who-like Al Gore or Brandon Gates-or a what-like climate science-all irrational, illogical arguments here are subject to the examination and rebuttal of anyone who cares enough about the topic presented to do so! But if you want to WIN, or be found on the side of a superior conclusion, you can’t accomplish that here with arguments that are just as equally irrational and illogical as your opponents are.

        Do you SEE the flaw in your insinuation about “you guys”….”impossible to take seriously” now?

        If not, let me clarify further-
        There is ZERO empirical evidence that anyone here at WUWT has EVER made the claim that they are (individually) or WE are (collectively here at WUWT) completely and totally rational and logical and fact based at all times, on all topics, no matter what that topic is. SO any CONCLUSION that you can make in regards to that WILL HAVE TO BE based on FLAWED premises like assumptions, insinuations, presumptions and anecdotal or circumstantial evidence.

        (Hint…there is no way to win or successfully conclude otherwise)

      • jon,

        Well, I gave you a chance to discuss facts, evidence, observations, and measurements. But you went off on your tangent and refused to discuss science. Instead, you posted a link to something I had nothing to do with, tarring everyone with your strawman argument. You wrote that this discussion “should be about evidence and reason”. But your screed was all emo, all the time. Thus, jon, you lose.

        I would love to debate the evidence for or against the ‘dangerous man-made global warming’ scam. So far, there’s no credible evidence to support it. But I keep an open mind and if you can produce any measurements quantifying AGW, you may be able to convince me.

        Instead, you’re just what other commenters say you are: irrational and illogical. Your dig that my answer to you was “sort of” OK shows that you’ve got nothin’.

        Come back when you’ve got some evidence worth debating. Until then, you’re just sitting in the peanut gallery, issuing baseless opinions.

      • dbstealey,

        Well if you declare victory for yourself, then that obviously means you must have “won”. Maybe get a couple others to back you up on it, shouldn’t be too hard to do on this website. Because that’s what’s really important, right? “Winning” arguments.

        My initial comment was not about the science of AGW as can be easily gathered from actually reading it. In fact, you have no idea where I stand on AGW because I never took a position. So you implying that my position on climate change is based in emotion or “belief”, saying I “got nothin'”, is in reality based on nothing but your own assumptions about me. It’s nonfactual, illogical, and would never hold water in a real scientific discussion. If I were here to have one with you, dbstealey, you would not be off to a good start, I’ll say that much. But I am not, because I have learned from reading comment threads here that you are not interested in the facts. This makes you impossible to have rational discussion with.

        Until we cross paths again, dbstealey, I bid you farewell.

        AndyG55,

        I actually would have been amazed if it turned out otherwise.

      • jon says:

        Because that’s what’s really important, right? “Winning” arguments.

        What’s important is eliminating misinformation, personal opinions, deflection, and baseless beliefs from the discussion. You’ve been told to stick with facts and evidence, but as usual you just give your own opinion without any measurements, observations, etc. What good is that on a science site?

        You say I’m not interested in the facts — but you have no facts! You still refuse to state your position (although it’s clear to me and others what it is. I have a pretty good idea about your beliefs regarding AGW). Your problem is that you cannot back up your beliefs with measurements or observations.

        Next, you say:

        If I were here to have one with you, dbstealey, you would not be off to a good start, I’ll say that much.

        Now we’re getting somewhere. That’s a challenge. You are saying you’re more knowledgeable. You imply that you can convince me with your facts, evidence, data, and measurements. OK then, get started, jon. Convince me with any facts or evidence you have. Otherwise, your comment is just more psychological projection; you keep imputing your own faults to me. And your impotent chest-thumping is amusing, because so far it’s just another baseless opinion.

        You have yet to discuss any science at all. You don’t like the fact that on this site you lose the debate by having nothing. Your baseless assertions are meaningless here.

        You end by saying:

        …you are not interested in the facts. This makes you impossible to have rational discussion with.

        That’s what they used to call a ‘cop-out’. I have repeatedly asked you to engage in a rational, evidence based scientific discussion because contrary to your claims, I am very interested in whatever facts you can find to support your belief system. But you continue to evade that, deflecting as usual onto things that don’t matter. How is that any different from chickening out?

        You made the challenge that I’d be in trouble if we ever did get into a discussion of the evidence. So, jon, get me in trouble.

        But truth be told, I don’t think you know enough to engage in a factual discussion.

        Prove me wrong.

      • Jon,

        Actually, he’s more knowledgeable about the subject of climate change than I would expect anyone of casual interest to be, which leads me to believe that he spends a great deal of time reading about it.

        Your inferences about the level of my interest and the time I spend reading are probably correct — I would say that my interest in the subject is not casual. I thank you for the compliment about what I seem to know, I sometimes wish I felt the same confidence. My reality is that there is so much I don’t understand and wish I did, and the more I study the worse that problem gets. :)

        Aphan,

        Ad-hom. You have no idea what most of the frequent commenters here would or would not like to do.

        A valid point.

        He seems fairly well educated on the basics of the climate, but he seems to have no education or knowledge about geology and how the EARTH will or will not respond to climate changes, based upon how the EARTH has changed in the past.

        Not a valid argument according to your own stated standard above. As I do know what I have studied and what I have not, I can also tell you that your inference is false. By way of example, I have spent probably about as much time looking at data obtained from here:

        https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data/datasets

        … as I have from here:

        http://climexp.knmi.nl

        … or here:

        http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/gridded/

        Easily a thousand hours all told over the past 5 years, if not more. Nobody should just take my word for it, however — in the end what it comes down to this: if I have an argument based on data from those sources (or any other source) it is, at a bare minimum, incumbent upon me to cite them and describe my analysis.

        Every argument, every single time.

        It’s a well observed problem in people who focus more fully, or even solely on, the atmosphere of this planet, (the climatology) instead of focusing equally on all of the information we have from all of the “ologies”.

        Those who study paleoclimate demonstrably rely on archaeology, paleontology, glaciology, geology and near-countless other -ologies. Would you argue that more or less than half of paleoclimatologists agree that human activities are having an noticeable warming influence on the planet?

      • dbstealey,

        Well, I gave you a chance to discuss facts, evidence, observations, and measurements. But you went off on your tangent and refused to discuss science. Instead, you posted a link to something I had nothing to do with, tarring everyone with your strawman argument.

        Here is my first comment on this thread: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/01/02/24-days-to-al-gores-10-years-to-save-the-planet-and-point-of-no-return-planetary-emergency-deadline/comment-page-1/#comment-2111452

        Here is what I believe to be your first rebuttal: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2016/01/02/24-days-to-al-gores-10-years-to-save-the-planet-and-point-of-no-return-planetary-emergency-deadline/comment-page-1/#comment-2111540

        An excerpt from that post:

        —————

        For almost 20 years CO2 (“carbon”) has been rising, but global temperatures have been declining — exactly the opposite of what Algore predicted:

        http://tiny.cc/y38s7x

        Next, we see the usual Brandon Gates cherry-picked propaganda in his comment right below. But here’s what Gates is not showing:

        —————

        The tiny.cc link goes to a Wood for Trees plot, the parameters of which are the same as this image which I saved off to my own webspace sometime last year:

        I do not recall Mr. Gore explicitly arguing that lower tropospheric temperature anomaly as estimated by Remote Sensing Systems using data collected from microwave sounding units carried by satellite in low-earth orbit would rise 1 Kelvin for each 1 ppmv of CO2 added to the atmosphere. Perhaps you’d be so good as to provide a direct quote?

        Next, I note that the RSS TLT time series goes back to 1979 …

        … and that a linear regression of CO2 vs. RSS TLT indicates that over longer intervals of time, we might reasonably expect a 0.007 K rise in temperature anomaly for every 1 ppmv rise in CO2. Of course, even you would be quick to point out that CO2’s radiative effect in the troposphere is not expected to be a linear function of its concentration by volume, but closer to the natural logarithm of its concentration, as you so often illustrate with this nifty plot:

        An aside: not for the first time, I wonder what “testable, empirical, verifiable measurements” were used to calculate that curve?

        That aside aside, thus far we see you doing one blatant cherry-pick of the RSS TLT time series, one strawman on the relationship between temperature and CO2, and one possible strawman on what Mr. Gore actually predicted 10 years ago in his film.

        That leaves us with “here’s what Gates is not showing” with respect to global sea ice area. As I’ve already pointed out, my initial post included separate plots for NH and SH estimated sea ice extent, which when added together should roughly equal the combined estimate for global sea ice area. IOW, I didn’t “hide” anything, and rather than admit your erroneous accusation, you chose instead to double-down and further accuse me of being fixated on Arctic ice because I kept bringing it up.

        Finally, you end that post with this passage:

        —————

        Like numerous times before, it will probably rise past the average. But to climate alarmists, every little wiggle indicates impending doom — but only those wiggles that support their belief system. And without any proof at all, they blame human CO2 emissions (only ≈3% of the total) for their negative wiggles. But they go silent when the wiggles go against them.

        So my meter pegs whenever Gates posts something:

        —————

        … which is about as good an example of “tarring everyone with your strawman argument[s]” in lieu of sticking to evidence as any of the several other places in this thread alone that you have made similar statements.

        Any time you want to go back to where I started participating on this thread: discussing “facts, evidence, observations, and measurements” (and estimates, of course) you just go ahead and let me know — I will be more than happy to discuss them with you.

      • Gates,

        You quoted the following comment as if I was writing to/about you:

        Well, I gave you a chance to discuss facts, evidence, observations, and measurements. But you went off on your tangent and refused to discuss science. Instead, you posted a link to something I had nothing to do with, tarring everyone with your strawman argument…

        …You left off the rest of it:

        … You wrote that this discussion “should be about evidence and reason”. But your screed was all emo, all the time. Thus, jon, you lose.

        Notice the “Thus, jon… ?? You left that part off, and then replied as if I had written it about you. But it’s clear I was writing it about jon.

        Kinda disingenuous, Brandon. As usual you set up a strawman argument and then attacked it.

        You finished it up by writing:

        Any time you want to go back to where I started participating on this thread: discussing “facts, evidence, observations, and measurements” (and estimates, of course) you just go ahead and let me know — I will be more than happy to discuss them with you.

        I really can’t unerstand why you would pick such an obvious strawman argument, when it’s so easy to show readers that you’re ethically challenged. Some advice: when you’re trying to pull a fast one like that, pick something where it can’t be proven that you’re being disingenuous. Take my advice or leave it; it’s your credibility that’s taken the hit.

        Next, I wasn’t tarring “everyone” with the pegged meter. I wrote: “…my meter pegs whenever Gates posts something”

        Anyway, glad I could give you something to do in the middle of the first workday of the week. Good luck finding employment.

        And:

        “hen-pecking me…”

        How else should we deal with Chicken Little? ☺

        Finally, I guess jon is your little brother, and he needs you to stick up for him, huh? I was right, as usual. He doesn’t know much.

      • dbstealey,

        This is a recorded message: Any time you want to go back to where I started participating on this thread: discussing “facts, evidence, observations, and measurements” (and estimates, of course) you just go ahead and let me know — I will be more than happy to discuss them with you.

      • Gates says:

        Any time you want to go back to where I started participating on this thread: discussing facts, evidence, observations, and measurements…

        First, you just posted a typical strawman argument that allowed me to point it out to everyone, then you dodged the question of producing a verifiable measurement quantifying the fraction of AGW out of total natural warming. Add your “Look, a squirrel!” argument to your strawman fallacies.

      • DB,
        I have this image in my head of both standing with our arms folded watching Brandon at his desk madly typing away. Without taking my eyes off of him, I lean closer to you and whisper loudly “Do you think he’s going to GET IT this time?” Without taking your eyes off of him, you lean back and whisper loudly “I doubt it”. And we just keep watching…..

      • B. Gates sez that I…

        …refused to discuss science. Instead, you posted a link to something… &etc.

        Just becuz I don’t instantly respond to incessant rants, it doesn’t mean I “refuse to discuss science”.

        Unlike Gates, I have a good, interesting life, and posting on the internet is only a minor part of it. I’ve never ‘refused’ a challenge, especially from a climate alarmist who’s trying to convert readers to his wacky eco-religion.

        If I don’t promptly reply, don’t get the idea that I’m out of good arguments. That’s never the case.

      • dbstealey,

        Fine, you just post a verifiable measurement quantifying the fraction of AGW out of total natural warming.

        Can’t be done since a “fraction” of something is a calcuation based on at least two input values. We can estimate (or “guesstimate” as you like to say) it of course, and have.

        I repeat: not for the first time, I wonder what “testable, empirical, verifiable measurements” were used to calculate that curve?

      • I repeat, not for the first time: measurements are data. In science, data is essential. Measurements are necessary to quantify things. Just about everything is quantified; what isn’t? We need measurements to know what we’re quantifying.

        THEREFORE: either…

        1. AGW does not exist, or

        2. AGW is too minuscule to measure.

        I think #1 is wrong, but that’s just IMHO. Few scientists think there is zero AGW.

        That leaves #2. If it’s #2, then the climate Null Hypothesis has not been falsified because even if AGW exists, it is too small to make an observable difference.

        CONCLUSION: No more public money should be wasted on something that is too small to measure.

        As a skeptic I’m always ready to change my mind. Just produce measurements quantifying how much AGW there is. Or, show global damage or harm due to the rise in CO2. That’s fair, no?

        And of course, any corporation or other private entity can spend all the money it pleases ‘studying climate change’. Just leave the taxpaying public out of the equation.

        And:

        Can’t be done since a “fraction” of something is a calcuation based on at least two input values.

        We already have the existing input value: the Null Hypothesis.

      • dbstealey,

        I repeat, not for the first time: measurements are data. In science, data is essential. Measurements are necessary to quantify things. Just about everything is quantified; what isn’t? We need measurements to know what we’re quantifying.

        No dispute. However, as soon as you ask for the fraction of warming attributed to anthropogenic CO2 (or to any number of other anthropogenic effects), you’re doing a calculation. Since all measurements are inherently erroneous, any calculations based on them are necessarily erroneous. All one ever gets when measuring anything is an estimate.

        I tend to believe that people who ask the same question over and over and over and over again after it has been explained over and over and over and over again that it is not humanly possible to honestly answer …

        … are not honestly looking for an answer. However …

        “Can’t be done since a ‘fraction’ of something is a calcuation based on at least two input values.”

        We already have the existing input value: the Null Hypothesis.

        … another possibility is that they are completely clueless.

      • “I tend to believe that people who ask the same question over and over and over and over again after it has been explained over and over and over and over again that it is not humanly possible to honestly answer …are not honestly looking for an answer. However another possibility is that they are completely clueless.”

        So…can we take it you are done asking people here the same questions about climate change over and over and over again when it has been explained to you over and over and over again, as honestly as possible, that it is not currently humanly possible to answer them one way or another? If you ARE honestly looking for an answer, we don’t have it. We aren’t hiding one, nor are we hiding FROM one. Don’t you get that or are you just completely clueless?

      • Aphan,

        So…can we take it you are done asking people here the same questions about climate change over and over and over again when it has been explained to you over and over and over again, as honestly as possible, that it is not currently humanly possible to answer them one way or another?

        Your question is too broad for me to answer as written. You will note that this statement from me …

        I tend to believe that people who ask the same question over and over and over and over again after it has been explained over and over and over and over again that it is not humanly possible to honestly answer …are not honestly looking for an answer. However another possibility is that they are completely clueless.

        … refers to a very specific question from Stealey …

        Fine, you just post a verifiable measurement quantifying the fraction of AGW out of total natural warming.

        … which he has asked many times in the past, and which I have answered many times in the past: I cannot post a measurement, I can provide a calculation based on estimated values.

        Another strange thing — and I have pointed this out several times in the past — is that Stealey likes posting this plot …

        … or similar versions of it ….

        … and then arguing along these lines …

        https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/08/19/is-the-signal-detectable/#comment-2012099

        As anyone can see, there would not be a 1.5ºC rise in global T, or anything close. It is very doubtful that any such warming could even be measured.

        … to which I have often raised what I think is a key question: since he is claiming that warming due to CO2 is too small to be measured, how is it that he can be so confident that “As anyone can see [from the CO2 log plot], there would not be a 1.5ºC rise in global T.”?

        To my knowledge, this is the best answer to that question Stealey has ever given me: https://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/01/10/portents-in-paris/#comment-1833746

        Those are not measurements, any more than a multiplication table is a measurement. They are graphs of a model; a model of radiative physics.

        So it is apparently ok for him to rely on unspecified models of radiative physics to support his arguments, but I must provide to him a “verifiable, testable measurement of AGW” to support my arguments.

        Therefore, no, I don’t think his repetitive demand for “a verifiable measurement quantifying the fraction of AGW out of total natural warming” is an honest query; he’s apparently already made up his mind on the basis of an unidentified radiative physics model that AGW is too small to measure. Which means, by definition, that whatever radiative physics model he claims as the basis for that plot is NOT observationally verifiable.

        If you ARE honestly looking for an answer, we don’t have it.

        Bearing in mind that I’m not entirely sure what question(s) of mine you’re talking about, I would like to point out that numerous people here frequently write, with apparent absolute confidence, that CO2-induced warming is physically impossible and therefore cannot be happening. You yourself say upthread …

        Earth science is where I came into the climate debate from. It’s my foundation. And because of what I KNOW and UNDERSTAND about the Earth, the physical planet, it’s so much easier to see the logic fails in trying to think that the AIR controls anything on this rock. Putting the past 150 years of “temperatures” into it’s proper context, which is MILLIONS of years old, one realizes darn quick that in all of the geological physical records-rocks, trees, ice cores, sediment cores, fossils, Co2 has never, not once, been guilty of changing the climate.

        … which looks like a pretty darn confident answer to me.

        We aren’t hiding one, nor are we hiding FROM one. Don’t you get that or are you just completely clueless?

        I get it that you don’t speak for all of whomever “we” is and are asking me to answer a false dichotomy — surely other possibilities exist?

      • BG-“Bearing in mind that I’m not entirely sure what question(s) of mine you’re talking about, I would like to point out that numerous people here frequently write, with apparent absolute confidence, that CO2-induced warming is physically impossible and therefore cannot be happening. You yourself say upthread …”

        “Aphan Said-“Earth science is where I came into the climate debate from. It’s my foundation. And because of what I KNOW and UNDERSTAND about the Earth, the physical planet, it’s so much easier to see the logic fails in trying to think that the AIR controls anything on this rock. Putting the past 150 years of “temperatures” into it’s proper context, which is MILLIONS of years old, one realizes darn quick that in all of the geological physical records-rocks, trees, ice cores, sediment cores, fossils, Co2 has never, not once, been guilty of changing the climate. .. which looks like a pretty darn confident answer to me.”

        Brandon, if I wanted to declare that “CO2 induced warming is physically impossible and therefore cannot be happening” I’d say that. I never have. I AM confident about many things, and the things I AM confident in allow me to see that it is not logical (at this point in time) to think that the AIR on planet Earth controls anything. CO2 has never, not once, been PROVEN guilty of changing the climate. I AM confident about that because no such evidence exists. But I have NEVER said that it is physically impossible and therefore cannot be happening.

        We have plenty of OTHER things that HAVE happened in the past that are far more likely to happen in the future. Super volcanoes like Yellowstone blowing. Asteroids. Ice Ages. Why is it that you are so concerned about something that has NEVER happened in the past, MIGHT happen in the future?

      • Aphan,

        Brandon, if I wanted to declare that “CO2 induced warming is physically impossible and therefore cannot be happening” I’d say that. I never have.

        I didn’t say you had, I said others here had.

        I AM confident about many things, and the things I AM confident in allow me to see that it is not logical (at this point in time) to think that the AIR on planet Earth controls anything. CO2 has never, not once, been PROVEN guilty of changing the climate. I AM confident about that because no such evidence exists.

        I pointed out to you in another post that presuming we know the geological history of the planet with enough fidelity to declare that CO2 has never once effected rapid global warming isn’t an argument I find compelling.

        But I have NEVER said that it is physically impossible and therefore cannot be happening.

        I think that argument is more logically consistent with your statement, “… it is not logical (at this point in time) to think that the AIR on planet Earth controls anything …” than not.

        We have plenty of OTHER things that HAVE happened in the past that are far more likely to happen in the future. Super volcanoes like Yellowstone blowing. Asteroids. Ice Ages. Why is it that you are so concerned about something that has NEVER happened in the past, MIGHT happen in the future?

        The way I see it, the probability of all those things happening again is 1. Since warming due to rising CO2 has already been observed over the instrumental record, the probability there is also 1. Of all the things on this list of potential disasters, our collective CO2 emission is the one thing we have most direct control of. We might be able to do something about a large comet or asteroid impact given enough warning, and I personally think we should be doing more to prepare for that eventuality just as I think we should be doing more to address CO2 emissions. We’ve “solved” the ice age problem for the foreseeable future. Nuthin’ we can do about super-volcanoes except study and prepare.

      • BG to me-” I didn’t say you had, I said others here had.”

        And I didn’t accuse you of saying it. I clarified my position after YOU used a literary rhetorical device that implied a similarity between a statement made “upthread” by attaching my statement to the end of the paragraph (in which you offered only your OPINION) about what “others here” had done.

        BG-“I pointed out to you in another post that presuming we know the geological history of the planet with enough fidelity to declare that CO2 has never once effected rapid global warming isn’t an argument I find compelling.”

        Whether or not you find something compelling has no bearing on the truth or falsity of that thing.

        BG-“I think that argument is more logically consistent with your statement, “… it is not logical (at this point in time) to think that the AIR on planet Earth controls anything …” than not.”

        Again, your thoughts are irrelevant to whether or not my arguments are logical.

        BG-“The way I see it, the probability of all those things happening again is 1.”

        Correlation is not causation, no matter how perfectly two variables align according to the Pearson’s rank Correlation Coefficient. Applying a “ranking” here is illogical.

        BG” Since warming due to rising CO2 has already been observed over the instrumental record, the probability there is also 1.”

        OOPS wrong again. FACT-Rising temps and rising CO2 levels that have been observed to occur at the same time over the instrumental record. FACT absolutely PERFECT correlations of 1 do NOT imply nor PROVE causation. Ever. They only prove PERFECT correlation. Until you CAN prove that no other KNOWN factor related to temperature increase has EVER shared a correlation with temperature as PERFECT as the “1” attributed to Co2, you….have….NOTHING…..but assumptions to use to reach that conclusion. PERIOD.

        “Of all the things on this list of potential disasters, our collective CO2 emission is the one thing we have most direct control of.”

        Our ability to control CO2 is IRRELEVANT until you have proven that CO2 directly causes temperature increases. It is ILLOGICAL to worry about something that has not been proven RELEVANT to what you are “worried about”. Worrying about CO2 causing a future disaster or influencing a potential disaster at this point is as rational/logical as worrying that the increase in stuffed unicorns that exist, or the number of marshmellows consumed by human beings (if the increase in them correlates PERFECTLY with the increase in temperatures) will affect or cause future disasters!

        BG-“We might be able to do something about a large comet or asteroid impact given enough warning”
        We MIGHT.
        BG- “and I personally think we should be doing more to prepare for that eventuality”
        I agree because we KNOW what happens when a large comet or asteroid hits the planet.
        BG- “just as I think we should be doing more to address CO2 emissions.”
        But we don’t KNOW if CO2 does ANYTHING dangerous. It’s ILLOGICAL to compare something we DONT know about, to something we DO know about.
        BG-” We’ve “solved” the ice age problem for the foreseeable future.”

        We HAVE? Which problem specifically have we solved? Since all of the EMPIRICAL evidence (ice cores and sediment cores, geological remains) demonstrates that some of the past Ice Ages began with HUGE amounts of CO2 in the air, you cannot logically be referring to anything related to CO2 amounts.

        I’m dying to see the empirical evidence you have that allows you to declare that we have solved some other ice age problem though!

      • Aphan,

        I clarified my position after YOU used a literary rhetorical device that implied a similarity between a statement made “upthread” by attaching my statement to the end of the paragraph (in which you offered only your OPINION) about what “others here” had done.

        What others say here directly contradicts your own statement: If you ARE honestly looking for an answer, we don’t have it.

        I don’t see how pointing that out qualifies as a “literary rhetorical device”.

        Whether or not you find something compelling has no bearing on the truth or falsity of that thing.

        Of course not, but the fact remains that people believe what they find compelling.

        Again, your thoughts are irrelevant to whether or not my arguments are logical.

        I like returning favors.

        Correlation is not causation, no matter how perfectly two variables align according to the Pearson’s rank Correlation Coefficient. Applying a “ranking” here is illogical.

        Inferring causality from correlations certainly doesn’t follow the rules of deductive logic. That said, recall that I was responding to YOUR statement …

        We have plenty of OTHER things that HAVE happened in the past that are far more likely to happen in the future.

        … which to my eyes reads as you applying a “ranking” of what is more or less likely to occur.

        Until you CAN prove that no other KNOWN factor related to temperature increase has EVER shared a correlation with temperature as PERFECT as the “1” attributed to Co2, you….have….NOTHING…..but assumptions to use to reach that conclusion. PERIOD.

        I am not arguing that the correlation is perfect, nor am I arguing that it must be, so this condition does not apply. Further, my beliefs about the reality of the situation do not rely only on the observed correlation in the temperature/CO2 record, but on direct observation under laboratory-controlled conditions coupled with well-established theory of radiative physics going back to Max Planck. We also see the changes in the radiative properties of the atmosphere in direct observation in response to changing levels of all GHGs over time. Harries et al. (2001) is a good place to start:

        https://workspace.imperial.ac.uk/physics/Public/spat/John/Increase%20in%20greenhouse%20forcing%20inferred%20from%20the%20outgoing%20longwave%20radiation%20spectra%20of%20the%20Earth%20in%201970%20and%201997.pdf

        Our ability to control CO2 is IRRELEVANT until you have proven that CO2 directly causes temperature increases.

        One wonders how I, or anyone, might do that without appealing to correlations, laboratory evidence, and physical theory which has been used in applied sciences and engineering having nothing to do with climate for the better part of a century under the same insolation conditions. Cooling, certainly, “full-blown” glaciation like that at the end of the Pleistocene, not so much.

        We HAVE? Which problem specifically have we solved?

        Glaciation due to orbital forcing a la Milankovitch. Without our influence, we’d be on the order of 100 kyrs for another one. With our influence, CO2 levels are already such that major glaciation of the northern hemisphere would likely not occur.

        Since all of the EMPIRICAL evidence (ice cores and sediment cores, geological remains) demonstrates that some of the past Ice Ages began with HUGE amounts of CO2 in the air, you cannot logically be referring to anything related to CO2 amounts.

        Over the past 400,000 or so years, ice core data show CO2 going between 180 and 300 ppmv, with the Holocene mean being ~280 according to Petit et al (1999):

        We’re currently at 400 ppmv, and still emitting. In the past we were NOT emitting.

        Good grief, do you really NOT understand the difference?

        I’m dying to see the empirical evidence you have that allows you to declare that we have solved some other ice age problem though!

        It’s not possible to provide empirical evidence of something that has not yet happened. Do you actually NOT understand that either?

      • Ladies and Gentlemen of the Jury,
        I’ve been looking forward to this day for a while now. I suspect you have as well. This is my last response to Brandon Gates, and my closing arguments in the case of Brandon Gates vs REASONABLE science.

        Brandon Gates has made many conclusions here. Some of his conclusions were stronger than others-these used empirical evidence and proven mathematical equations etc as their premises. Some of his conclusions were weak, flawed and suspicious-these used weak, flawed premises-like assumptions, projections inferences etc. Brandon Gates’s behavior here, is perfectly aligned with the behavior of SOME scientists.

        But today, Brandon Gates himself, I believe, posted all I needed to present my closing remarks and wrap this case up with a bow and sprinkles. In fact, I believe Brandon Gates just gave us a way to destroy at least two of the pillars of the AGW argument, himself.

        Pillar #1-“Statistics prove it”

        BG-stated prior to today- “Since warming due to rising CO2 has already been observed over the instrumental record, the probability there is also 1.”
        And then today-BG- “Inferring causality from correlations certainly doesn’t follow the rules of deductive logic.”

        He’s only partially correct. Inferring causality from correlations certainly does not follow the rules of deductive logic. It does not follow LOGIC at all. BUT…the problem BG (and AGW theory) has is….inferring causality from correlations BREAKS THE RULES OF STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY too!

        EVIDENCE against pillar #1
        Wiki-“Probability-from the modern meaning of probability, which, in contrast, is a measure of the weight of empirical evidence and is arrived at from inductive reasoning and statistical inference.”

        Differences between types of logic-deduction, induction and others-

        http://www.livescience.com/21569-deduction-vs-induction.html

        The Wiki link demonstrates that in order to calculate probability, you need to measure “the weight of the empirical evidence” using inductive reasoning and statistical inference.

        Since there IS NO EMPIRICAL evidence that ANY of the temperature changes in Earth’s history have EVER been caused by changes in CO2 levels, there is literally nothing to “weigh”, or reason about, or make inferences FROM!
        BG posted earlier, in his own words- “It’s not possible to provide empirical evidence of something that has not yet happened. Do you not understand that either?”

        Brandon doesn’t seem to understand that HIS OWN ARGUMENT applies to HIM first! (wink)
        You cannot reason inductively, or deductively at ALL about something THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED.
        Since there is ZERO empirical evidence that rising CO2 has EVER been responsible for PAST dramatic climate changes-it’s absurd to try to pretend that it is even possible to come up with an accurate “probability” of it happening in the FUTURE!!!

        1) Inductive reasoning- Let’s just drop this one. It’s not necessary to mock Brandon/AGW theory even more by outlining all the ways in which his “reasoning” skills might be afflicted.
        Aside from Brandon undermining his own arguments, he was attempting to use statistics to do something that statistics has NEVER DONE.

        Wiki- “Association (Statistics)-“It is important to note that neither association nor correlation establish causality. This is necessary to state, because studies which show correlation are frequently misinterpreted or misconstrued to the effect that association by itself proves something useful.”
        “In other words, association by itself does not prove or disprove anything, and can only at best show that two things are mathematically related, whether or not they are causally related. Likewise, it is quite common (and yet erroneous) for people or groups to state that “studies show…” some given conclusion which is actually based only on statistical association rather than the implied causality suggested by the person or group citing the studies. This is not to say that the studies themselves are invalid (although they may be so), but rather that a study which looks only for correlation can only establish that there is correlation, not proof of why there is correlation.”

        Causalityrefers to the relationship between events where one set of events (the effects) is a direct consequence of another set of events (the causes). Causal inference is the process by which one can use data to make claims about causal relationships.”
        “Causal inference is the process of drawing a conclusion about a causal connection based on the conditions of the occurrence of an effect. The main difference between causal inference and inference of association is that the former analyzes the response of the effect variable when the cause is changed. The science of why things occur is called etiology”.

        PILLAR #2-“Human emissions are dangerous”

        BG-“We’re currently at 400 ppmv, and still emitting. In the past we were NOT emitting. Good grief, do you really NOT understand the difference?”

        Brandon Gates, and other AGW people, really might NOT understand that it does NOT MATTER how much CO2 in the atmosphere can be blamed on humans…AT ALL. We can put 10 times that much up there, or suck it all out of the sky and stuff it in Hillary Clinton’s winter home. IT DOES NOT MATTER.

        Earth itself has been emitting billions of tones of CO2 all day every day for millions of years without ANY human emissions. During ALL OF THOSE millions of years, the CO2 levels in the atmosphere have been both HIGHER and LOWER than they are now and there is not ONE SHRED of “empirical evidence” that ANY of the massive changes that have taken place on this planet, in those millions of years, were DIRECTLY or INDIRECTLY caused by CO2!! So the very IDEA that human CO2 can or will CAUSE something to happen in the future, that CO2 has NEVER, EVER been proven to cause in the past, IS not only INSANE and illogical, it is ALSO statistically IMPOSSIBLE to determine whether or not it’s even probable!

        BG:”One wonders how I, or anyone, might do that without appealing to correlations, laboratory evidence, and physical theory which has been used in applied sciences and engineering having nothing to do with climate for the better part of a century under the same insolation conditions.”

        Ladies and Gentlemen- isn’t that what we ALL wonder? Isn’t it a WORLD WONDER how BG or anyone, has gotten away with building or supporting a theory that is so obviously and entirely dependent upon the “appeal to CORRELATIONS” alone??? I wonder about it all the time! It makes no sense! Not logically! Not statistically! I believe that it displays either a stunning ignorance of The Scientific Method, or the arrogant ignoring of it! Scientists in the applied fields and engineering would KILL people if they did the same things that “climate scientists” are doing! It’s the antithesis of SCIENCE at it’s very core, and anathema to everyone with a brain. Brandon Gates…maybe YOU should “wonder” about the same things we wonder about.

        But how it happened, and why all the guardians of “science” allowed it to happen, are arguments for another day and place. But I believe that Brandon Gates personally just provided all the proof anyone needs to destroy those two pillars in the AGW argument camp in the future. If any of BG’s other conclusions about AGW relied upon the “strength” of those two pillars…he may want to reconsider those as well.

        Case closed

      • Aphan,

        Pillar #1-“Statistics prove it”

        That would be an example of you restating something I said in a way I did not, nor would not. Here’s a hint: the word “prove”. I don’t apply it to exercises involving statistical inference. I do think proofs work great for pure maths, for non-trivial empirical sciences … not so much.

        Inferring causality from correlations certainly does not follow the rules of deductive logic. It does not follow LOGIC at all.

        I just love how casually you discard the backbone of most modern physical sciences — one wonders how it is possible for you to accept any scientific conclusions since “hypothesis testing” became an integral part of the lexicon and practice of doing them (if indeed you do at all).

        Since there IS NO EMPIRICAL evidence that ANY of the temperature changes in Earth’s history have EVER been caused by changes in CO2 levels, there is literally nothing to “weigh”, or reason about, or make inferences FROM!

        Tsk. Since there is no way for you to “prove” a negative, you have just advanced a non-falsifiable argument … which is kind of a no-no amongst rational folk since it allows one to believe whatever one wants in lieu of actually attempting to determine what is real.

        Brandon doesn’t seem to understand that HIS OWN ARGUMENT applies to HIM first!

        Dunno ’bout that. Seems to me that I’m not the one conflating observation and prediction.

        You cannot reason inductively, or deductively at ALL about something THAT HAS NOT HAPPENED.

        Seriously? Where is that written? More importantly, WHY would anyone be silly enough to authoritatively write such a thing when anyone with half a wit about them can pick up a rock, release it, observe what happens, then pick up another rock of roughly the same shape, size and mass, and by inference predict that it will do something quite similar to the first rock when released in a similar fashion prior to actually doing it.

        This is such a basic tenet of physics it boggles my mind that you have so thoroughly muddled it.

        It’s not necessary to mock Brandon/AGW theory even more by outlining all the ways in which his “reasoning” skills might be afflicted.

        And yet you continue to mock. Which is ok by me — I find it amusing in a dismal sort of way.

        Aside from Brandon undermining his own arguments, he was attempting to use statistics to do something that statistics has NEVER DONE.

        Surely you’re not mind-reading again. No, of course not.

        Wiki- “Association (Statistics)-“It is important to note that neither association nor correlation establish causality.

        This is something which is taught in Stats for Dummies 001, and not being a complete idiot I learned it quite well. What you keep glossing over is that we understand CO2’s (and other “GHGs'”) radiative properties from laboratory-controlled experimentation. So, demonstrable physical mechanism in controlled conditions + correlation in uncontrolled conditions = strong suggestion of causality.

        No, not “proof”. We’re still doing inference here.

        Please do try to address my actual arguments instead of your apparently deliberately ignorant distortions of them.

        Earth itself has been emitting billions of tones of CO2 all day every day for millions of years without ANY human emissions.

        This is not in dispute. The thing is, the planet is not bound by the laws of physics to automagically AND instantaneously re-absorb the entirety of our additional contribution to the NET CO2 flux.

        During ALL OF THOSE millions of years, the CO2 levels in the atmosphere have been both HIGHER and LOWER than they are now and there is not ONE SHRED of “empirical evidence” that ANY of the massive changes that have taken place on this planet, in those millions of years, were DIRECTLY or INDIRECTLY caused by CO2!! So the very IDEA that human CO2 can or will CAUSE something to happen in the future, that CO2 has NEVER, EVER been proven to cause in the past, IS not only INSANE and illogical, it is ALSO statistically IMPOSSIBLE to determine whether or not it’s even probable!

        The above (oft-repeated) mantra is not even wrong. I’ll demonstrate by example: the existence of the Higgs Boson was predicted well before CERN actually isolated and observed them. This is true of almost all of the elementary particles included in the Standard Model, it’s just that the Higgs was the most recent to fall due to its exceptionally high mass requiring an exceptionally large and powerful particle smasher.

        With respect to the part I bolded above, for the second time, I note your previous statement …

        We have plenty of OTHER things that HAVE happened in the past that are far more likely to happen in the future.

        … and question why it is ok for you to assign probabilities here, but “statistically impossible” for me to do the same?

        Care to actually answer that question next time instead of just repeating the same bullcrap over and over?

        Scientists in the applied fields and engineering would KILL people if they did the same things that “climate scientists” are doing!

        Climate scientists did not invent statistical hypothesis testing, and they are far from the only ones doing it. And, as literature attests, they are far beyond relying only on correlations to further our understanding.

  20. Gee, algore was wrong yet again. I am waiting for just ONE of these dire predictions to come true and prove me wrong. This is nothing but a money scam, take the money away and the problem disappears.

    • Miles, please allow me to use your reply button in response to Brandon Gates? (Please let one of Anthony’s hinted improvements be an easier way to navigate long thread like this….)

      BG-

      Regarding my comment about you-“He seems fairly well educated on the basics of the climate, but he seems to have no education or knowledge about geology and how the EARTH will or will not respond to climate changes, based upon how the EARTH has changed in the past.”

      BG-“Not a valid argument according to your own stated standard above. As I do know what I have studied and what I have not, I can also tell you that your inference is false.”

      What I said is perfectly valid based upon the premises I used to arrive at that conclusion. If you would like to ASK me to tell you what those premises are, rather than to make irrational, illogical declarations like “not a valid argument” or “false” , I’d be happy to discuss that with you.

      “By way of example, I have spent probably about as much time looking at data obtained from here:”

      Oooops. You know me….clear, precise, logical. I assumed that YOU defined the normal, regular words I used in the statement above the same way I do=with the most common, universally understood definitions possible.

      Earth-“the planet on which we live; the world, the substance of the land surface; soil.”
      Climate-“the weather conditions prevailing in an area in general or over a long period.”
      Weather-“the state of the atmosphere at a place and time as regards heat, dryness, sunshine, wind, rain, etc.”
      Geology-“the science that deals with the earth’s physical structure and substance, its history, and the processes that act on it.”

      I never mentioned Paleoclimate or Paleoclimatology, but since you brought them up.

      Paleoclimate- “a climate prevalent at a particular time in the geological past.”

      Paleoclimatology (in British spelling, palaeoclimatology) is “the study of changes in climate taken on the scale of the entire history of Earth.”

      Now, once you’ve read and agreed upon those definitions, please re-examine what I said. If you want to change your comments to reflect more logical conclusions about what I said, I’d be happy to discuss them with you.

      Grasshopper (and I mean that in the most affectionate and wise manner),
      The conclusions you reach are only as strong/good/solid as the premises upon which you formed them.
      Weak, illogical, irrational arguments (premises) produce weak, illogical, irrational conclusions.
      Strong, logical, rational arguments (premises) produce strong, logical, rational conclusions.

      (Someday I’d love to discuss/teach/mentor you in how logic can be compared to using a mathematical formula that can be applied to ANY discussion. Your premises are like the numerals, factors in an equation, and your conclusions are the “SUM” at the end. Your conclusions must = your premises. If they don’t, we have to go back through your equation and find out where your “math” went wrong. )

      • Aphan,

        What I said is perfectly valid based upon the premises I used to arrive at that conclusion.

        Ok, fine. It’s still perfectly wrong.

        If you would like to ASK me to tell you what those premises are, rather than to make irrational, illogical declarations like “not a valid argument” or “false” , I’d be happy to discuss that with you.

        Knock yourself out. But I still know my own mind, own experiences, and own study materials far better than you do … which means I’m uniquely qualified to say to you, quite logically, that your conclusion is … FALSE.

        Now, once you’ve read and agreed upon those definitions, please re-examine what I said.

        Ok, done. For review, here is what you said: He seems fairly well educated on the basics of the climate, but he seems to have no education or knowledge about geology and how the EARTH will or will not respond to climate changes, based upon how the EARTH has changed in the past.

        … annnnd you’re still wrong.

        If you want to change your comments to reflect more logical conclusions about what I said, I’d be happy to discuss them with you.

        Fine, we’ll try it a different way. What is it specifically that you think I don’t understand? OR: tell me a way in which you understand geology, how the planet has changed in the past to affect climate, and what better insight that gives you over me into how climate might (or might not) change in the future.

        The rest of your post was academic; I of course realize that conclusions are only as good as the premises they are based on. Next time you want to talk about all your rational assumptions regarding what I have and have not studied — which as an almost total stranger to me you have very little way of knowing — how about you go ahead and heed your own advice instead of offering to be my tutor on the ways of logic?

        Thanks and cheers.

      • BG

        I said- “What I said is perfectly valid based upon the premises I used to arrive at that conclusion.”

        BG- “Ok, fine. It’s still perfectly wrong.”

        You can say anything you wish to about my conclusion about how much you “seem” to know or do not “seem” to know. But because you are not qualified to know “you seem” to me or “don’t seem to me” YOU only get to logically claim that you THINK my conclusion is perfectly wrong. You don’t get to declare that IT IS.

        I said “If you would like to ASK me to tell you what those premises are, rather than to make irrational, illogical declarations like “not a valid argument” or “false” , I’d be happy to discuss that with you.”

        BG -“Knock yourself out. But I still know my own mind, own experiences, and own study materials far better than you do … which means I’m uniquely qualified to say to you, quite logically, that your conclusion is … FALSE.”

        Nope. You don’t. OF COURSE you “know about your own mind, experiences and study materials far better than I do! DUH. Obviously because you haven’t shared all of your mind, all of your experiences and all of your study materials with me, it would have been irrational, unreasonable for me to make a statement like “Brandon does not have any education in….” or “Brandon knows nothing about…” THAT IS WHY I didn’t make a statement like that. I said “It SEEMS…..which is defined as “it appears”. Since you are NOT uniquely qualified to know how what you say here “SEEMS”/APPEARS to indicate to me about you, YOU cannot logically declare my conclusion false.

        I said -“Now, once you’ve read and agreed upon those definitions, please re-examine what I said.”

        BG-” Ok, done.”

        Do you DO agree to those definitions?

        BG- “For review, here is what you said: He seems fairly well educated on the basics of the climate, but he seems to have no education or knowledge about geology and how the EARTH will or will not respond to climate changes, based upon how the EARTH has changed in the past.… annnnd you’re still wrong.”

        Nope.

        I said “If you want to change your comments to reflect more logical conclusions about what I said, I’d be happy to discuss them with you.”

        BG- “Fine, we’ll try it a different way. What is it specifically that you think I don’t understand?

        How logic works.

        BG- “OR: tell me a way in which you understand geology, how the planet has changed in the past to affect climate, and what better insight that gives you over me into how climate might (or might not) change in the future.”

        Nope, you’re trying to tell ME how the climate will affect the planet in the future. I am not trying to tell you that geology recorded how the climate has changed in the past-how fast, to what degree etc-and if one considers ALL of the evidence provided by that geological evidence it is irrational and illogical to assume that CO2 levels in the ATMOSPHERE could POSSIBLY change the climate of this planet IN THE FUTURE because ALL of the geological evidence PROVES that CO2 levels in the atmosphere have NEVER caused a change in the climate of this planet BEFORE.

        If you actually HAVE studied and understood everything about the entire GEOLOGICAL record of planet Earth’s past, then you could not POSSIBLY have arrived at such an illogical and irrational conclusion about planet Earth’s FUTURE!!!! Based on the fact that you HAVE arrived at that irrational and illogical conclusion, either you know and understand the geological records AND are clinging to an illogical/irrational conclusion DESPITE THEM, or you arrived at an illogical and irrational conclusion because you to not know or understand them. I’m giving you the benefit of the doubt by calling you un-eduated or uninformed rather than irrational and insane. If you’d like to prove that you ARE educated and informed, BUT are still clinging to an irrational/illogical conclusion, then all you’re going to do is PROVE that you are informed but insane. Be my guest!

        BG-“I of course realize that conclusions are only as good as the premises they are based on.”
        So then why don’t you realize that your conclusions are weak/irrational/illogical?

        BG- “Next time you want to talk about all your rational assumptions regarding what I have and have not studied”

        I did not make ONE assumption about what you have or have not studied. I ONLY assumed that what you post here accurately reflects your current understanding, and you SEEM to not understand anything about the geology/geological record of this planet.

        BG” — which as an almost total stranger to me you have very little way of knowing ”
        Exactly! All I CAN know about you is based upon what you post here. And you have posted NOTHING that leads me to believe that YOU understand geology. And nothing you have posted demonstrates that your sources understand geology either.

        BG- “how about you go ahead and heed your own advice instead of offering to be my tutor on the ways of logic?”

        I DO heed my own advice. I KNOW how logic works, how to use it, and what it can and cannot do. Your behavior and posts indicate to me that you struggle with how logic works, how to use it, and what it can and cannot do. As long as you use it incorrectly, I’m going to keep busting your chops about it.

        You’re welcome, and cheers back!

      • Aphan,

        OF COURSE you “know about your own mind, experiences and study materials far better than I do! DUH.

        Good, we agree.

        Since you are NOT uniquely qualified to know how what you say here “SEEMS”/APPEARS to indicate to me about you, YOU cannot logically declare my conclusion false.

        Or perhaps not. I don’t need to know your premises to recall what I have or have not studied, nor the conclusions I have drawn from those studies.

        [S]o you DO agree to those definitions?

        Yes.

        I am not trying to tell you that geology recorded how the climate has changed in the past-how fast, to what degree etc-and if one considers ALL of the evidence provided by that geological evidence it is irrational and illogical to assume that CO2 levels in the ATMOSPHERE could POSSIBLY change the climate of this planet IN THE FUTURE because ALL of the geological evidence PROVES that CO2 levels in the atmosphere have NEVER caused a change in the climate of this planet BEFORE.

        Thank you for expanding your argument.

        If you actually HAVE studied and understood everything about the entire GEOLOGICAL record of planet Earth’s past, then you could not POSSIBLY have arrived at such an illogical and irrational conclusion about planet Earth’s FUTURE!!!!

        That conclusion relies on this premise being necessarily true: … ALL of the geological evidence PROVES that CO2 levels in the atmosphere have NEVER caused a change in the climate of this planet BEFORE …

        That premise can only be necessarily true IF and ONLY IF the entire geological history is known. I submit to you that it isn’t.

        If you’d like to prove that you ARE educated and informed, BUT are still clinging to an irrational/illogical conclusion, then all you’re going to do is PROVE that you are informed but insane.

        It would be difficult, if not impossible, to “prove” my sanity to you, and I’m frankly not interested in trying. The truth value of my arguments does not rely on my mental or emotional state, my motivations, or any other thing about my person.

        BG-“I of course realize that conclusions are only as good as the premises they are based on.”
        So then why don’t you realize that your conclusions are weak/irrational/illogical?

        Because I don’t agree that my premises are invalid, or that my logic is fatally flawed.

  21. What else could I say, other than:

    1) Al Gore is a pathological liar that has grown a completely bogus climate issue into a multi-billion dollar global socialist scam. As a result, he has become a very rich hypocrite that has had the last laugh on the 2000 presidential election (and, sorry, Al, you REALLY DID lose!).

    2) The Global Socialists and our domestic progressive communists (aka, “Democrats”) will continue to falsify records, spread their incessant “Climate Change” lies through all media sources, and use this as a hammer to drive through their self-destructive ideology worldwide for dominant power and control over all of the earth’s people.

    It’s easy to “solve” a problem that really doesn’t exist.

    When the world finally wakes up (the Russians and the Chinese already have), I think an international tribunal similar to the Nuremburg Trials after WWII should be held to try and convict everyone and anyone that had anything to do with this giant, destructive farce.

  22. This biggest hoax from FB al Gore led the second biggest hoaxes: Obama, “hope and change”, Obama leadership. Obama intelligence, etc..;libs are so funny.

  23. Wow. I looked at all this hogwash but couldn’t get past the caption on the map that reads, “Warmth the polar bears now love”. Are you kidding me? There has always been, and always will be, examples of another statement that comes to mind, and that is… “You can’t argue with Stupid”.

  24. In 2004, vladimir Putin’s scientists and economists prepared a PowerPoint presentation to brief him on the facts about Human caused Global Warming for the Kyoto meeting. If this presentation had been given the publicity it deserved, Al Gore would have to explain a lot. See it at paullitely.com.

  25. European/German satellite data showed an unprecedented melting of the Antarctic and Greenland Ice caps. Greenland being essentially inconsequential in comparison to the Antarctic, but is far more consequential than the arctic ice. (Arctic ice may cover a large area but it is VERY thin (ft. vs miles) in comparison to both Greenland or Antarctica.) That said, with the Arctic/Greenland “unprecedented meltdown” we are experiencing, using the volume of ice in both locations, it’s true, if ALL their ice were to melt, our ocean levels would rise ~256′ (Do the math – I did!). However, what they don’t tell you is, it will take 57,000 years of this continuous unprecedented melting for this to happen. That means the sea levels will rise and unprecedented .05″/year or 5.3″ every 100 years and THAT’S assuming nothing changes. But, what we learned from this article, “everything is subject to change”. As a common sense guy, I wouldn’t worry about it. I am going to live a good life, work hard to provide for my family, enjoy the fruits of my labor, and recognize that I have NO control over the destiny of this planet and will respectfully enjoy all God and man, in the image of God, has created. We’ll all be fine.

    • You are almost correct. Keep in mind that Obama was able to pass Obamacare, which is eroding the USA medical system. “They” may be a bunch of crackpots, and the free market can normally accommodate a lot of mischief, but if the wackos manage to destroy our economy with laws based on these fairy tales, it won’t matter that the fairy tales are false and have no effect on us, we will still be wrecked by the ridiculous laws imposed on us.

  26. Now that the entire “Global Warming,” er, I mean “Climate Change” scam has been thoroughly debunked and discredited, the liars and data manipulators like Algore should try a new scam – maybe the Nigerian prince who has 6.5 million he wants to put in your bank account, something like that.

  27. If Al Gore is wrong and he is, then Barack Hussein Obama is wrong, Hillary Rodham Clinton is wrong and the entire democrat political party is wrong. When will they say “Sorry, my bad”? Ain’t holding my breath because I know they will just double down. We have to take these environmental masquerading socialist jerks out of power forever.

  28. So Obama was right, after he was elected the earth stopped heating up and the seas stopped rising.

  29. File “An Inconvenient Truth” with “Reefer Madness” — hours of harmless mirth for future generations.

  30. My sister, my older sister, hits, bangs, bumps, and falls into everything. But, it’s not like she’s clumsy. Trust me; vampires are not clumsy.

    For instance, I was helping her (it was coerced) move a full length mirror (it’s strictly vanity on her part ’cause, obviously, she won’t reflect) the other day. I told her I needed her to lift it six more inches and she could let go. She barely lifts it, lets go, and both the mirror and I go crashing to the ground. I’m cut up, bruised, and bleeding profusely. She’s a vampire, you know, so I was a little afraid when I saw a smile and fangs appear on her face from the sight of all that blood.

    “I asked you to move it six inches before letting go.”

    “I did.”

    This problem is ongoing. I tell her, “Put the steak six inches over the flame.” It’s burned to a crisp. “Back the car up six inches.” Crash!

    It took years, but I finally found out what the problem was. I finally asked her, “Do you really know what six inches is?” On a stack of Bibles I swear that she holds her index finger, maybe, 3/4″ away from her thumb, and says, “Sure I do, this is six inches.”

    “Three quarters inch? Who told you that?”

    “My husband.”

    Now, let us consider Al Gore as my sister’s husband; compensating for repeated failures to attain the presidency, or for being married to a vampire, or whatever. And compensating by making little things much, much bigger than they are. (Am I a great brother-in-law, or what?)

    And, let us consider that film maker, and the current occupant of the WH as being versions of my older sister in drag (or maybe following s•e•x change operations – but, the vampire part remains). And, they believe everything husband Al says.

    And, let us consider me as an example of society: bruised, and bloodied by false information fed to vampires that rule over us.

  31. Every cloud has a silver lining. At the turn of the millenium (12/31/2000) I was a lukewarmer, I mean it just seemed plausible, you know? But as months of reading, and then years, passed and my spidey-senses kept nagging me to keep reading, especially when that stupid agitprop pos came out, I completely stumbled upon WUWT. I was so stoked, it kicked off a whole new level of delving. I only had 4 months of archived material to catch up with and the rest is history; a daily dose of fun, fear, laughter and outrage! So Happy New Year everybody! And particularly to you, Anthony, and your family. God bless the mods and happy posters, too.

  32. He is a fear mongering money grubbing creep!

    The real threat is Jihad but there is no money in it so this has been ignored.

    Gore knew his audience however, they’ve been groomed at public schools that have stopped teaching critical thinking, stopped teaching the history of founding of American and very little science.

  33. What is it with this fascination with failed former politicians? He’s done and useless and as for his special predictive capabilities, even I can match him … by the year 2100, almost every adult alive today over the age of 20 will be dead … and the few survivors will be in nursing homes.

    And when the glaciers again advance, those haters of mankind will blame us for that too.

    As for Gore and his kind, don’t hate them. Just pity them … such a sad specimen of lost hateful humanity. The only emotion they deserve is pity.

  34. Gore is a grifter and always has been. This whole AGW scare is nothing but fear tactics to redistribute wealth. There should be jail time for those who adjusted temp data to feed the lie. Billions of $ have been lost and or wasted due to this fraud.

  35. Those who took part in the adjusting of temperature data to back the false god of AGW should be prosecuted for fraud. It cost billions in lost revenue and billions in in the redistribution of wealth.

  36. He’s closer than you think about the world ending. But it’s because of morons like his buddy Obozo running the cultural climate of the world with their assinine libtard policies they forced on us.

  37. Al Gore will go down in history as a hero of scientific scepticism.
    His bombast polarizes perception.
    His profiteering from fear mongering is impressive.
    Sincere or not Al attracted the easily Gulled and inspired the opportunists.

    The contempt for the citizenry and nation states that dominates our politicians ,the UN and the Eco-Nasties, should be a clue.
    Nothing from these people is for the “good of humanity”.
    Time and nature have revealed their lies, human nature has not changed.
    Where do these artists hope to flee to?
    Where will they be safe from the revenge of those who trusted them?

    For Al and like extremists are never in physical danger from people who doubted them, it is the true believers who , when awakened, seek violent retribution.
    Love scorned, gets right ugly.

    Personally I have to thank Al.
    Until my wife rented An Inconvenient Truth,I had paid no attention to the CAGW chatter, Al and his idiocy ruptured my BS detectors.
    The quality of spokesman for the Cult of Calamitous Climate, such as Al Gore, simply defies all attempts at parody.
    Such willful ignorance of human history,weather and geology.

  38. AlGore will be private-jetting between energy-gobbling mansions. He, like the DNC-Media Complex are such hypocritical P’sOS.

    Why did W never get any credit for his eco-friendly ranch he lives in?

    http://www.snopes.com/politics/bush/house.asp

    http://www.ecorazzi.com/2007/02/19/president-bushs-texas-ranch-is-off-grid-eco-friendly/

    Even the jerkoff in the 2nd article can’t bear the thought of Bush being anything but a monster in spite of the evidence.

    Some, I guess, just quietly lead from the front whilst others loudly lie and quietly profit.

  39. Al Gore’s predictive model was based more on economic criteria fueled by the urgent need for his bank account and celebrity brand to expand and rise more so than sea levels.

  40. Al is still looking for a rape-compliant masseuse.

    He’s a remarkable combination–a man as wooden as John Kerry but even more instinctively traitorous, a man who thinks as much of himself as Barack Obama, but with even less reason, and a man as full of crap as George Soros, but much poorer and stupider. He wanted to become a biilionaire trading carbon allowances after his co-conspirators passed cap-and-trade, but he was disappointed again. A Nobel laureate and a pluperfect scumbag.

  41. 10 years since Gore’s End of Days prediction. Over 20 years since the Rio Earth Summit, (ECO 92). The time lines aren’t panning out for AGW. Reality continues to disprove the models. Why are supporters still touting them?

  42. (sarc on) The most obvious resolution to the existing global warming is the extermination of the root cause. While there has been limited success in the US with the eradication of the 98.6 degree walking heaters through abortions, a much more comprehensive and universal method must be employed to rid the world of the primary cause of temperature increases: Humans.

    The spokespeople for Climate Change should volunteer to be the first group to forefit their existence in the interest of the preservation of the planet. In addition to their dead bodies no longer producing heat, they will no longer travel by plane, car, boat or train to attend global change rallies. Within a very short period of time, same 6 or 7 millenia, the surviving generations can revisit the climate warming hoax….. Assuming that the algore-ignorant-gene has been completely irradicated.

  43. Al Gore and all the other alarmists confuse me at times. I often wonder if Mr. Gore and others really believe the heifer dust they toss about, or if they are just doing very profitable propaganda. Mr. Gore was near broke shortly after his run for president and now is worth billions they say. But even though he has made great profit from this delusional cluster-frack, that does not prove he does not believe in it with all his heart.

    The politics of the Big Scare has moved on past Al Gore for the most part, but studying him does have benefits. Why was he so successful in convincing so many people of this obviously dubious speculation that CO2 can “fry the planet”?

    • I’ve met many first class scientists who believe Al Gore’s story, if not IT per se. That group includes some first class physicists.

      Honestly, I don’t understand it, because it doesn’t take much study to realize no one knows what they’re talking about..

      Nevertheless, Al Gore does have an argument from authority, so there’s no reason to doubt that he believes it himself.

  44. The number of people mass-brainwashed by this left-wing fraud is going to be remembered in history as an embarrassment on our generation. “Global Warming” can be better described as “As Gore’s 401K plan”. He nd other leftists came up with the “carbon trading” scheme to try to make themselves very rich. Just before Gore went out on his “inconvenient” propaganda tour,he set up a company called “Generation Investment management”, which was poised to make billions from carbon credit trading. Also research the players behind the failed Chicago Carbon Trading Exchange (CCX), which included none other than Obama on their board when it was conceived.

  45. Who in his right mind would believe this Lying, Hypocritical, demoRAT-COMMUNIST party Operative and Colossal FRAUD, algore?

  46. The Book of Gore

    (The source of the data below is the Wikipedia article on Al Gore. I cannot vouch for its authenticity. Passages in quotes are verbatim from this article.)

    In the beginning, Gore created the heaven and the earth.
    And Gore said, Let there be light: and there was light.
    And it was green light, from Green Energy, and Gore saw it was a great money-making opportunity.
    On the first day, Gore goeth to Harvard, and though he loveth scientific and mathematical theories, “he did not do well in science classes and avoided taking math.”
    On the second day, Gore goeth to Vietnam. “Gore eventually decided that the best way he could contribute to the anti-war effort was to enlist in the army, which would improve his father’s re-election prospects.” But his father loseth the election anyway.
    On the third day, Gore goeth to Divinity School, but being already Divine, switcheth to Law School.
    On the fourth day, Gore inventeth the Internet.
    On the fifth day, Gore runneth for President but loseth to George W. Bush in a shootout by the Supreme Court.
    On the sixth day, Gore maketh a film, An Inconvenient Truth, but verily I say unto you, its true title is, Many Convenient Lies.
    On the seventh day, Gore rested. But he and the IPCC winneth the Nobel Peace Prize. But how doth Climate Change Alarmism promote world peace? And how Nobel, the creator of dynamite and developer of armaments, createth a Peace Prize, passeth all understanding.
    And in his spare time, Gore createth Adam and Eve in the Garden of Eden, and sayeth: of every type of energy in the Garden you mayest use, but not of fossil fuels.
    But the fossil fuels took the form of a serpent and came to Eve, and said: Why should you not partake of me? I will give you an affluent lifestyle like Gore.
    And Eve and Adam partook of the fossil fuels, and they were good. They built a house, though not as big as Gore’s mansion, and cast off their fig leaves and wore Levis and hoodies, and drove a big SUV, and vacationed in Acapulco.
    And when Gore saw this, he waxed wroth, and sayest: Thy carbon footprint is too big. Thy climate shall heat up, and all manner of ills shall befall ye and thy children.
    And Adam and Eve said: We carest not. The Garden could be a few degrees warmer, and we loveth our lifestyle. And our carbon footprint maketh the Garden greener, for from the earth it came, and to the earth it shall return.
    And Gore heareth these words and fell silent, for he knew it was the truth, and wondered how he could divest his stock in Green Energy. And so endeth the Book of Gore.

  47. Can someone also explain whatever happened to “The Hole in the Ozone” that was supposed to destroy us as well? Do you remember that? This was the late 1980s, early 1990s. Everyone in the media screamed about hairspray causing ‘the hole in the ozone!” and how that was going to destroy us. And then once Gore started up his Anthropogenic Global Warming Cult, we never heard about the hole in the ozone again. Would love to see an update on that previous Chicken Little scaremongering.

  48. I understand that AlGore has a few of his Authentic Carbon Credit Credits available hurry and you may get some for yourself…give them too your kids

  49. Al Gore plugged the ozone “hole”. Now all the “missing heat” has nowhere to go.
    It’s all Al’s fault!

  50. Energy is the time-integral of power (AKA forcing). It is disturbing that some who proclaim to know science do not attend to this fact, especially as it applies to average global temperature (AGT) change. Divide the energy change of a body by its effective thermal capacitance and you have calculated its temperature change.

    If CO2 was a forcing on AGT, the time-integral of a math function of the CO2 level (divided by effective thermal capacitance) would equal the AGT change during the time interval.

    Now look at the graph of AGT and CO2 level during past glaciations as so eloquently displayed in Al Gore’s infamous movie. If you truly understand this stuff, it should be apparent, contrary to showing that CO2 drives temperature as big Al erroneously proclaimed, the graph actually provides compelling evidence that CO2 has no significant effect on AGT.

    This and similar discussions along with identification of the two factors that do explain AGT change for the last 300 years or so (97% match since before 1900) are at http://agwunveiled.blogspot.com

    • Dan,

      From your linked page,

      “Average global temperature is very sensitive to cloud change as shown in Reference 5. An increase of approximately 186 meters in average cloud altitude or a decrease of average albedo from 0.3 to the very slightly reduced value of 0.2928 would account for all of the 20th century increase in AGT of 0.74 °C.”

      A drop from 0.3 to 0.2928 albedo, would account for the entire 20th century warming . . It seems to me this degree of sensitivity to cloud change is not being adequately stressed, and I thank you for doing the work you’ve done to help remedy that. I had no idea that glaringly obvious candidate for “temperature control knob” is that finely tuned.

  51. “since a college class in the 1960s convinced him that greenhouse gases from oil, coal and other carbon emissions were trapping the sun’s heat in the atmosphere, resulting in a glacial meltdown that could flood much of the planet.”

    Only a politician like Mr Beachfront Gore could utter such a gravitationally-lensed statement.

  52. The climate alarmist crowd always points to Arctic ice “disappearing” (actually, it is simply the ‘polar see-saw’, where polar ice increases in one hemisphere, and decreases in the other hemisphere):

    The Antarctic contains 10X the volume of ice that the Arctic contains, so the rise in Antarctic ice offsets the decline in the Arctic.

    Also, Arctic ice is only a few feet thick in most places, and the Arctic is often open water. By comparison, Antarctic ice is often a mile thick.

    The “Arctic ice” alarmism exists for only one reason: the climate alarmists who made all sorts of predictions about disappearing polar bears, and Manhattan being submerged, and rapid, accelerating sea level rises, and runaway global warming, etc., have been 100% wrong.

    Every scary prediction they’ve made has been flat wrong, but Arctic ice did decline somewhat. So they cling to that factoid like a drowning man clings to a stick.

    But Arctic ice is rising again. Even if it wasn’t, the scare is about global warming. They just cherry-pick the Arctic because it suits their argument.

    As others have noted here, money — and lots of it — is the only reason the “climate change” scare is still in the media. The gov’t spends more than one billion dollars annually promoting the ‘climate change’ scare. Why?

    Because the government wants a ‘carbon tax’. That is their motive.

    A carbon tax would raise the cost of all goods and services, without any offsetting raise in income. The difference would go to the government, but it would not change the planet’s temperature by 0.00001ºC.

    And a carbon tax would be the ultimate wet dream of every government throughout history: a way to tax the air you breathe!

  53. will sea levels rise more in la nina periods?
    What does the heat energy go when warm water is circulated down deep in the seas?

    • The first question might be difficult to answer because the change is so small and the time period of a La Niña is short. The atmosphere is warmed as an El Niño progresses and fades. So, I’d say “no” is the answer.

      Your second question contains the answer, but maybe you are thinking more about a sciency answer.
      Try this: Heat a small metal coin until it is very hot. Next drop it into a bathtub full of very cold water (temperature just above freezing). Stir the water with your hand and then, with your fingers, take the coin out. The coin is now cold and the water has been warmed – just so little that you can’t tell. This dispersal is irreversible; you can’t get at that energy to re-heat the coin (in an everyday sort of way). See:
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_law_of_thermodynamics

  54. Holy Moley I’d better get in the back yard and start burning stuff we don’t have long to pull this off! LOL

  55. Keep in mind that Al Gore is heavily financially invested in climate-friendly technologies and even owns a carbon credit company, an “inconvenient truth” he doesn’t talk about.

  56. Whoa! “…resulting in a glacial meltdown that could flood much of the planet” by January 26th?

    All is lost! Why even show up for work or school between now and then?!

  57. Gore and the “Good Liberals” are just like the crooks in the movie Good Fellas.
    Global Warming – “F*** You Pay Me.”
    Global Cooling – “F*** You Pay Me.”
    Climate Change – “F*** You Pay Me.”

  58. Contrary to what the Al Gore ‘Chicken Little’, College Grantee, East Anglia U. scammer, Carbon Credit huckster, German influenced Pope and Obama Admin. “warmers” are preaching there isn’t a singular “world-wide” Climate. There are “regional” Climates.
    These “Climates” are dependent on many factors, too many I’d say for the computer “Climate Modellers” to incorporate into their “doomsday” predicting data sets.
    To get an idea of these factors: http://firstchurchofnaturaltheology.com/lets-talk-climate/

  59. Unbelievable that people are so purposely blind and REFUSE to see or admit the truth, Al Gore flies around on Private Jets, has a cavelcade of full size SUV’s in tow, wastes more fuel and does more environmental damage in one day than most people do in a 5 year span, and yet the lemming Progressives believe every word he says, what a bunch of brainless nutbags.

  60. Not only are the AGW fraudsters culpable but their fraud has diluted true science to the point that actual scientists with other theories have been ignored. There is a real chance that we may be headed for an actual mini ice age such as happened in the 16 & 1700’s. If true the dangers of this would dwarf warming. Warming and good counts of CO2 mean excellent farming and abundant food supply while cooling is the opposite. We may have wasted valuable time researching the real and much more dangerous threat of global cooling. If so remember who the people we’re that shouted you down when you challenged their global warming histeria.

  61. Sorry but according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2015 was the hottest year on record EVER, with the average global surface temperature running 1.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.0 degrees Celsius) warmer than the 135-year average. Funny how that didn’t make it into your misleading article. Facts don’t lie. The icecaps are melting, temperatures getting hotter. Al Gore was at least partially correct.

    • A degree C is 1.8 degree F.
      NOAA’s record is short but even so is fudged to exaggerate warming.
      The Arctic is losing ice while the Antarctic is gaining.

    • 2015 was the hottest year on record EVER“, was that, like, EVER in the last 4.5 billion years, Hal? Or just EVER in the last 150 years? Is 150 years an EVER-so-large baseline? Or is it insufficient to exclude greater climate warmth in prior times? Such as during the Medieval Warm Period.

      If prior times were even warmer, then why should anyone worry about now?

      Does your baseline EVER acknowledge systematic measurement error? You know, the thermometer error limiting our knowledge of the global surface air temperature to no better than ±0.5 C? (869 kB pdf)

      What’s the alarming significance of a change in air temperature of 0.8±0.5 C, stretching across 150 years? Does it matter to your thesis that recent climate warming is indistinguishable from zero C at the 95% confidence interval?

      Well, look, that’s science for you. It’s our most efficient means of deflating even the most seductive and exciting of self-exalting moralisms.

      • And we should not lose track of the fact that whatever is happening – cooling, nothing, warming – we don’t know why. Al ‘the Goracle‘ Gore pushed hard on the carbon dioxide (now “carbon”) thing but that busted when hit by reality. So, I’m intending to keep driving my pickup truck.

    • 135 years ago takes us back to 1880. The idea that we know the global temperature back then within 2C is, well, words fail me. Since 70% of the world’s surface is ocean, we really have very little idea what the global temperature was (to the extent that such a thing exists) before the satellite era. I mean, you have NO idea just how MIND-BOGGLINGLY BIG the oceans are, and how very little of it used to be measured. Since New Zealand is pretty small, and the South Pacific is pretty large, we can maybe use historic New Zealand data to get *some* idea of what was happening pre-satellite. De Freitas, Dedekind, & Brill, Environ Model Assess (2015) 20:399–410 DOI 10.1007/s10666-014-9429-z come up with a trend of “0.28±0.29 °C per century” “over the period 1909–2009”. Any time anyone gives you *one* number (like “1.0 degrees Celsius”) instead of a range (like “0.28±0.29 °C”) for something with as much uncertainty as this, you can safely ignore what they’re saying.

    • It was not the hottest ever. No humans were here at the beginning of earth time and what year was a thermometer even invented? And where are all the temperature records going back millions of years? Our temps were normal to below average in 2015. And last time I checked, Texas gulf coast is still part of the GLOBE!

    • 2015 was the hottest year on record EVER

      Considering we are talking about ‘GLOBAL warming’, I must not live on THIS globe:

      Summary for 2015

      Temperature (°C):
      Mean (1 minute) 18.9
      Mean (min+max) 19.5
      Mean Minimum 14.6
      Mean Maximum 24.5
      Minimum 3.5 day 04/07
      Maximum 41.0 day 26/11

      Highest Minimum 26.2 day 20/12
      Lowest Maximum 13.1 day 12/07

      Summary for 2014

      Temperature (°C):
      Mean (1 minute) 19.3
      Mean (min+max) 20.3
      Mean Minimum 14.4
      Mean Maximum 26.1
      Minimum 4.1 day 06/08
      Maximum 41.7 day 14/11

      Highest Minimum 22.4 day 19/02
      Lowest Maximum 15.5 day 19/07

      Disclaimer, these figures are from my own PWS (personal weather station) and have not been passed on to NOAA, NASA, CRU or Oz’s BoM for ‘verification’. /nudge, nudge – wink, wink

  62. “What to do? What am I gonna do now? Eureka! I’ve got it. I’ll sell a boxcar load of my Global Warming BS to my sycophantic minions. Those Grubers will buy anything. I’ll be rich! I’ll be as rich as a sheik! ” __ Al Jazeera Gore – overheard mumbling to himself after losing to GW Bush

  63. Since we are nearly at the point of no return, will it be too much to ask that Gore move on to other issues and the IPCC be dissolved?

  64. When my dad was alive, he was invited by Al Gore to participate in a think tank. My dad went, listened and then came home. He said Al Gore is a smart guy. Maybe Al is just off on the timing of his predictions.

    • What is intelligence good for without moral character?
      Al’s goal hasn’t been to “Go Green”. It’s been to “Get Green”.
      He’s gotten a lot of it in the last ten years.
      If his timing is off, it’s only because he thought he could get even more.

  65. January 25th, 2006 Al Gore said (reported by CBS News),

    “And politicians and corporations have been ignoring the issue for decades, to the point that unless drastic measures to reduce greenhouse gases are taken within the next 10 years, the world will reach a point of no return”, Gore said.

    He [Gore] sees the situation as “a true planetary emergency.”

    “If you accept the truth of that, then nothing else really matters that much,” Gore said in an interview with The Associated Press. “We have to organize quickly to come up with a coherent and really strong response, and that’s what I’m devoting myself to.”

    Al Gore is a merchant of fear. Fear he creates for starting a religious revolution he lusts to lead.

    Al Gore does not care if he was wrong about his 10 year bullshit doom talk, it does not change his future behavior as a merchant of fear nor his power lust to be the leader of a religious revolution.

    John

  66. Al Gore started this. College Scientist, with Gov. grants picked ot up and gave skewed Proof that the ” Cooling,” was coming. Somewhere along the way, it became ” Global Warming.” Then in 2007, Oblamo, said that if we would elect him, he would lower the Oceans and cool the World. All of the countries that showed up in Paris this year, Were there to get the American Money, that Oblamo has been promising them. Even the Pope, is expecting his cut. This is Oblamo & Hillary’s way of Redistributing our tax dollars. ( You know, The money that THEY, never earned ) This is all part of the ” No Borders, One World Order,” People.

  67. Next thing they’ll say is that we’re cooling too much. Anything to separate me from my hard earned money.

    • Just before the divorce, the Gores bought the mansion in the hills with an ocean view. I have never seen anything saying it was “oceanfront” – except in a manner such as you have just cited. Also, I think Tipper” got the house when, 3 months later, they split.

      • “Just before the divorce, the Gores bought the mansion in the hills with an ocean view. I have never seen anything saying it was “oceanfront” – except in a manner such as you have just cited. Also, I think Tipper” got the house when, 3 months later, they split.”

        If she got the house….does that mean he wants her dead??? (When the ocean rises up?) :)

      • mansion in the hills with an ocean view

        Ah! So he bought land that will be ocean front property any day now! What a genius.

        Of course, his neighbors will all drown, but them’s the breaks when you’re a global-warming-fighting real estate tycoon.

  68. “If you accept the truth of that, then nothing else really matters that much,”

    Remarkable, then, that he managed to rouse himself to make multiple millions in the years since on the back of this “planetary emergency”.

  69. The cooling through 1970s and 1980s needs to be put in context with the previous decades, were that period lows, or normal such that proceeding periods are ‘back to norm?”

    I recall an insurance adjuster in the US, who was going to do adjusting work in the disasters that ocurred in the US (hurricane Andrew etc) mentioning the cause was the El nino (or nina, I forget which, it was 25 yrs ago..)

    Those caused massive damage in the US but life as we know it drags on…

  70. Brother Al and I grew up in the same hometown: Carthage, TN (although he did spend his high school years in DC as his father was a senator).

    A couple of years ago, a mutual friend of ours passed away. I was at he visitation when Brother Al pops in. We chatted for a few minutes (I had to remind him who I was).

    When I left, I saw his car: Lexus V12.

  71. We should have learned after the mammoths caused the Ice Age to end by driving around in their Humvees.

  72. Also was probably right, but for the wrong reason. Human factored global warming is so far negligible, but climate change is occurring and needs to be studied in depth. It does not help science to say if you don’t believe a theory then you should be punished. That sort of thing went out with the dark ages. The world in which we live is going to go through global turmoil, atmospheric and geophysical. People should plan with their families on how to adapt. The earth’s geomagnetic poles are changing, fact. The magnetosphere is weakening, and we will be exposed to more solar radiation, at times. Also too, the planet’s jet streams are moving, and slowly, large scale geographic shifts are occurring. It may be that Mr. Gore is correct, after all. The world needs to study, plan, and prepare for this, and that will cost money, so his carbon tax or something similar, set aside by nations should be invested. There is no stopping this phenomena. Humanity will survive this, but life will be different. Good luck world leaders, in a way you’ve got what you wanted, but this will likely be much greater than you had thought.

    • Jamesseon Reanaldoson,

      The U.S. gov’t alone wastes more than $1 billion every year ‘studying climate change’.

      That’s not enough??

      The “dangerous man-made global warming” hoax is a scam, intended to pass carbon taxes — which won’t change global temperatures by ±0.000001ºC.

      A ‘carbon’ tax would funnel huge revenues from your pockets into the government bureaucracy. That is their motive.

      But Planet Earth is making fun of their scare: there’s been no global warming for almost 20 years now:

      And U.S. temperatures have declined for the past decade:

      Folks, the government is trying to get you to worry about this:

      It’s a false alarm. A fake scare, to get people to agree to a ‘carbon’ tax.

      There’s no “climate” problem; they’re scheming to get more of your money.

      Just say “NO!”

      • What is interesting to note about the Australia graph is that since 2007 it has a general downward trend but with small jumps in 2009 and 2012.

    • Jamesseon Reanaldoson,
      Where have you been for the last couple of decades? One look at the parameters of “climate change” as defined by our global warming bureaucrats should give you a clue. The slightest weather variation has morphed into “climate change”….and that terrifies you? The fact that your government supports a hoax to be
      “fixed” with your tax money should scare the hell out of ya!!!!!! Relax, there is no problem, no solution is needed.

    • LOL. Those are really great…BUT, reality is , these people really have to pay for what they have done ! Millions in poor nations have died and will continue to die until WE stand and fight !! WE are the only ones that can ! If WE do not, millions HERE will die !! ……IMHO

    • dbs,

      You hit the nail right on the head: SPLENDID PHOTOS !

      PS: I do agree with marcuso8. They must be made to pay.

      Regards and thanks,
      WL

  73. All he has to say is, current mitigations are working and we will continue to do more.
    That will be enough for the Kool Aid drinkers.

  74. I guess we should just assume it’s a coincidence, that a couple of Gore’s many predictions are coming true now, around the same time as the COP 21 Show–after the Pope, the UN, etc ad nauseum have chimed in on the climate ’emergency’–and at a time when weather wars and maipulation are intensifying, and the results of 20 years of aerosol ‘geoengineering’ and HAARP interference have taken effect.
    These insane oligarchic climate ghouls have gone a little too far and tipped their hand, and now their whole agenda is quite well known. They won’t go away even if we ignore them. In fact now they’re passing laws, assessing for carbon credits and the like, making secret globalist treaties.
    I say good luck to them! They’ve clearly bitten off more than they can chew.
    If we’re lucky they’ll all choke and die.

  75. Al Gore along with all Climate Changing “Chicken Littles” have about as much credibility as the Bafoon in the White House does regarding Foreign Policy!!!

  76. The utter vacuity of the Progressive movement is summarized in its elevation of Al Gore-zeera to cult leader status.

  77. Al Gore along with all Climate Changing “Chicken Littles” have about as much credibility as the Bafoon in the White House does regarding Foreign Policy!!!!!!!!

  78. Global warming (aka climate change) is the religion of the stupid.

    Sheep, lemmings, and Leftists are easily manipulated.

    zazzle.com/firstprinciples?rf=238518351914519699

  79. So Al Gore will leave the planet now, yes? He’ll be blasting off into the cosmos in his carbon neutral spaceship. T-Minus 9 days and counting.

  80. The real danger to humans are one-world globalists, Muslim fascists and assorted leftists who are pushing a borderless world and communist agendas.

    Global warming is a con job and Al Gore is the captain of this ship: The SS BS.

  81. Anyone care to wager if 25 days from now, Al Gore will recant his end-of-the-world prophecy?

    • Chuck,

      That’s what we call a ‘baseless assertion’ here. You’re entitled to your opinion. But this is the internet’s “Best Science” site, and readers expect more than just an opinion. We expect evidence, observations, measurements, data, and the papers written by true experts in the field, or in related fields in the hard sciences.

      Most readers of this site operate on the basis of scientific skepticism, and extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, observations, data, etc.

      But all you’re doing is parroting the media narrative. They try to get as many heads nodding as possible, because they have an agenda. And it isn’t based on the truth. In science, you are supposed to question everything. Assertions and name-calling are strong indications of a know-nothing; folks who have scientific evidence are always happy to produce it. In fact, sometimes it’s hard to stop them.

      So here’s some well-meant advice: if you’re going to assert that “It’s real”, first explain what “it” is. Then make your case. The more evidence of all kinds you can round up, the better you will be at convincing the thousands of people reading this that you’re knowledgeable. But a baseless assertion means exactly nothing. You won’t convince anyone of anything, and calling others “ignorant” and other disparaging terms for no reason will just amuse people. Who’s really ignorant? Isn’t it the person with zero facts, or evidence, or data? That means you are the true “believer” here.

      Finally, what “consequences” do you believe we “WILL” see? What is “manmade”? Because you didn’t say, and we’re readers, not mind readers. And FYI, scientific skepticism of the man-made global warming narrative cuts across all political lines here. Read this site for a while and you will see that’s true.

  82. Before the “climate change” discussion can really become meaningful, there are a few questions that should be addressed. First and most importantly, what is Earth’s proper temperature? Who determines it, and where and how is it to be measured? Until the climate change prophets can agree on the answers to these simple questions, nothing else they say matters.

    • Perfesser wrote:
      “First and most importantly, what is Earth’s proper temperature?”
      I’d like the year-round high to be 78F +/- 3F with overnight lows about 64-66F.

      “Who determines it, […]”
      Me, and BTW the only people who should be allowed to vote should think exactly like me

      […] and where and how is it to be measured?”
      A 10-12 county with my neighborhood in the center; standard thermometers are OK by me.

      Well… you asked. I claim first dibs on setting the global thermostat.

  83. :) Yet another predicted Thermageddon date is about to arrive. If you believe in global warming, this is a chance to put your money where your mouth is. Spend everything and max out the credit cards. Don’t want to take the risk? You must be just another denier.

  84. Why are you liberals so gullible as to believe these elitist imbeciles? Gore and Guggenheim are absolute morons!

  85. Most of the people making comments here miss the point by a wide margin. While most are mocking gore and proclaiming what a bafoon he is and how wrong he was and he is an idiot…blah, blah, blah, Gore is counting the hundreds of millions or billions of dollars he has made from his company selling carbon credits and investing in alternative energy companies over the past 10 years. The con is over and most folks still don’t realize it was a con game. He set it up perfectly using his status as an ex-vice president of the US to bolster his credibility around the world then gave us the date ‘the world will end’ or at least the date by which we would have to have the problem solved or it would be too late. He went out daily using his high profile to pump the con while selling carbon credits to all the PC companies around the world that were shamed into jumping on the bandwagon. Now that ‘the date the world will end’ has arrived and nothing has changed we sheepeople are crowing about what a fool gore is and he is on his private jet with his accountant trying figure out how much money the con brought in while flying to some far away exotic warm place to spend the winter.
    “The best con is a con when the ‘mark’ never even realizes he was conned!
    Can you hear gore laughing?

  86. After billions spent on research, not a single scientific proof of AGW. Moreover, no explanation of why CO2, only four tenths of one percent of all greenhouse gases, is the driver of global warming, which anyway isn’t happening. It’s a con, a scientific fraud.

  87. Perhaps AL Gore is suffering from affluenzia.
    The planet has a fever, and Mr. Gore is soaking up the world’s nutrients and fossil fuels. To insulate his body and fuel his fancy jet. Inconvenient indeed.

  88. Global cooling/global warming/climate change is a scam. The only thing sinister about climate change scam is how sound science has been subverted by the massive subsidies available for so-called “green projects”. The climate change nightmare is here and now – a beautiful landscape ravaged by thousands of wind turbines in the sky and solar panels on the ground, both notorious bird-killers, sucking money from the pockets of the poor and transferring it to already rich landowners, utility shareholders, and big time scammers, like Al Gore. Wake up! We have always had climate change – we call it seasons: summer, fall, winter spring. Only a fool would buy into Gore’s scam.

  89. You are celebrating a shallow victory. Al Gore has become a very wealthy man on the proceeds of his propaganda.

    The warmists have not only enlisted successfully the political elite of the western world they have neutered governments industries and institutions.

    That the warmists have nothing to do with climate but political change is even more of an indictment of the impotence of the skeptics.

    • [Comment deleted. “Jankowski” has been stolen by the identity thief pest. All Jankowski comments saved and deleted from public view. You wasted your time, David. What a sad, pathetic life. -mod]

  90. Ah.

    “The Madness of Albert Arnold Gore”, Jr. Born March 31, 1948 (age 67), Washington, D.C., U.S.

    Albert in the “Inconvenient” liked to talk, roll on and on and on, about his days in Tennessee. Yet, what about those formative days in D.C.? That part of Albert’s life was, Inconvenient, to Director Phillip Davis Guggenheim.

    Ah!

    Benjamin Guggenheim, a wealthy industrialist and heir to the Guggenheim mining fortune, is remembered for saying as the Titanic sank into the icy Atlantic, “We’re dressed in our best and are prepared to go down like gentlemen.” Legend has it that Guggenheim and his valet smoked cigars and sipped brandy while awaiting their deaths.
    [http://www.dummies.com/how-to/content/famous-titanic-passengers.html]

    And Al Gore’s band, played on, while H. Jay Zwally watched from afar with a bitter expression on this face, throwing down to the deck his “ticket”. H. Jay Zwally would have to think fast to survive this night and he did, discussing himself as a woman to get into the last boat. Another H. Jay Zwally would live to see his predictions of catastrophe of the Arctic sea ice, rendered ignorant and dismissed by all. A sorry end.

    Happy New Year beneath the seas of the North Atlantic.

    Ha ha

  91. Gore needed money. All the suckers obliged his foolishness. There’s one born every minute. The people of the State of Tennessse doesn’t even like to admit he was once their Senator.

  92. [Comment deleted. “Jankowski” has been stolen by the identity thief pest. All Jankowski comments saved and deleted from public view. You wasted your time, David. What a sad, pathetic life. -mod]

  93. The REAL problem is overpopulation, which is a third world issue. Nobody want’s dirty air or water, but we need energy and transportation both of which produce CO2 for now. If we kept the global population below 3 billion, there would be little need for concern. Regardless, mother Earth will eventually take care of the problem with the next ice age, which will dramatically lower the number of human beings the planet can support. In the meantime, zero population growth should be what algore, the UN and the rest of the climate priests should be proselytizing about.

  94. Since when do facts matter to the left wing lets tell people how to live crowd mattered? According to them they know better then us “common folks” and should get in our place in the line to get our food.

  95. Looks like alGore was taking Gregg Easterbrook’s advice, “Law of Doomsaying: Predict catastrophe no sooner than five years hence but no later than 10 years away, soon enough to terrify but distant enough that people will forget if you are wrong.”

    Unfortunately for Al the internet has a long memory.

  96. In the 80s it was a new Ice Age. Then it turned to global warming. When their global warming conferences kept getting hit by blizzards, it became climate change. I’m inclined to think that the biggest cause of any global warming or climate change is the hot air spewed by AL Gore and his ilk…..

  97. Climate whores like gore dont care about being correct. They just want to make money from their bull shirt and control as many sheeple as possible. And liberal morons fall for it hook line and sinker!

  98. “unless drastic measures to reduce greenhouse gases are taken within the next 10 years, the world will reach a point of no return, Gore said.”
    or
    “Skeptics have one last chance to consolidate their position and focus a discussion.’

  99. I dont know about the climate predictions of the past,but here on the west coast,the rivers have run dry,we have two million dead trees,communitys without running water,fallowed farms, lawns,sky high food and energy prices,not to mention oceanic heating anomalys (not related to El Nino),that have killed off and affected sea and wildlife…So,if theres any chance that the 97 percent are even remotely correct,perhaps we should hold off on the big play down and get focused on sustainably…:)

    • But… but… but Gore said “NO RETURN”!!! This means that you will never see those rivers again, and trees will not grow any more. Plus El Niño is going to stay forever. It’s the end of the world! Science is robust.

    • re: all the unpleasant stuff happening to the west coast:

      1) Has anybody ever pointed out to you that the west is arid?
      1a) Do you know what “arid” means?

      2) It’s been happening for thousands of years

      3) It’ll happen for thousands more years

      4) What do you expect when 10 times as many people try to live in an arid area and have pools & green lawns?

      5) CA has pretty much sucked up all the water in several states, so you’re running out of options

  100. Every time we have a hilarious thread like this, I always get that prickly feeling on the back of my neck that you get when ever you think someone is watching you but you just can’t see them…..Like Lewandowsky is grinning madly somewhere and rubbing his hands together and muttering “Yes….YES…..keep talking……this will be the basis of my next peer reviewed paper…..muh huh hahahahahahahaha…evidence…this is EVIDENCE…..”
    :)

  101. “… since a college class in the sixties convinced him…” What an addle brained mush head he must have been! This sleestak lookin’ fool has been wrong his entire life.

  102. Unfortunately spat across the entire MSM, especially in Australia, where people believe what they see. They don’t know it’s dark at the north pole during a northern hemisphere winter.

  103. I am waiting for an apology for the switch from “Global Warming” to “Climate Change”.
    Then an apology for French Foreign Minister Joining John Kerry saying: “Only 500 Days Left to Avoid “Climate Chaos” (which ended Sept 25th 2015).
    I also want an apology from Al Gore for saying “We Need to ‘Punish Climate-Change Deniers” and and said that “government officials who continue to deny it should pay a “price.”
    These people are just evil!

  104. Well, before you had 10,000 replies (pretty much kidding here) I just wanted to say…
    Al Gore was the perfect name for the “Gore Point” of the freeway fix of various silly engineering idea regarding highway lane changes. (I’m talking about barrels of water here)

  105. I recently watched a documentary on Richard Dawkins,”The Unbelievers”, about his views on religion, god etc. He maintained that humans evolved over millions of years staring off as sea creatures. I had no argument with that as there is plenty of scientific evidence pointing that way. His philosophy on life quite sound. However Richard Dawkins is a big fan of Al Gore’s movie “Inconvenient Truth”, that has no scientific support what so ever. Man Made Global Warming is the newest religion of which Dawkins is a firm believer. Perhaps it’s the gravy train, that caused him to not apply those same scientific tests to both topics.

    • He’s nothing but an educated fool. His zealous and egotistical campaign against religion has blinded him to his own irrationalism, which is what allows him to accept and preach the manmade warming/climate change dogma.

  106. To paraphrase a local radio personality after Buffalo experienced its warmest December ever, “If this is global warming then bring it on!”

    Mr. Gore, you’re rich and can afford the cold. Us regular folk who have to scramble to make ends meet welcome this warming whenever we can get it … we live in the real world … global warming is a fantasy problem for the out of touch rich.

  107. Wrote this a couple years ago.

    AL GORE — American Bloviator

    Forever, forever its all Al Gore
    Now, in the future and always before
    Spinning himself with the words he can whirl
    The earth is his oyster, he is its pearl

    Carbon Dioxide is filling the air!
    And there’s no escaping, It’s Everywhere!
    It’s up in the sky, it’s under your bed
    It’s deep in your lungs, come out of your head!
    The polar caps melt from CO2’s heat
    The seas will be rising twenty-five feet
    The ocean conveyor ceasing to flow
    Where water goes stagnant algae will grow
    A growth in plant life that carbon promotes
    Green seas where Sargasso seamlessly floats
    If acid rain scared you, Think About This!
    Oceans acidic and warmer than piss!
    The Teddy Bears — wait! — the Polar Bears drown
    As carbon goes up survival goes down!

    Once as a young man Al fully believed
    First before others himself he deceived
    Then sure of THE TRUTH his dictums were hurled
    Like God by the Word creating the world!

    The sky, it is falling upon your head!
    Sharknadoes increasing with millions dead!
    (That’s in a movie, I make movies too
    Seeing’s believing so all of it’s true!)
    Whether is weirding and its everyplace!
    Our footprint of carbon on Gaia’s face!
    Calamitous Climate! None can escape
    Gaia’s revenge for Capitalist rape!
    Science is settled! We know all the facts!
    These super storms need a new super tax!
    The U.N. will lead! The models are right!
    Peer reviewed models! Mankind is a blight!
    So go buy a bike and pedal to work
    2000 WAS MINE! AND BUSH IS A JERK!

    Al’s actions say more than bluster explains
    A hypocrite now he flies private planes!
    Mansions and autos, a party time yacht
    Al owns such but preaches — others must not!

    Note: Al’s four decker fantasy class yacht is named the Bio-Solar One
    and where it is docked called by all the BS One.

    Eugene WR Gallun

  108. In 24 days when the Goracle’s count-down to doomsday is up, he’ll simply give himself credit by saying he saved the planet from disaster “just barely enough” but that “more must be done”, in terms of regulating people’s lives and raising taxes all in the name of ‘saving the planet’.

    What a shyster, a crook, a greedy fraud.

    Shame on the Goracle for deceiving low information voters.

  109. Ignore the tax scheme called “Climate Change/Global Warming” for a second. The first rule of pols and crats is that they believe nothing that does not serve their voracious appetite for money and power.

    That is why they lie so effortlessly; They believe nothing, and will tell you anything to validate YOUR beliefs, so long as it brings them additional money and power.

    Being that Gore has gotten quite rich off of his tax scheme propagandizing, I would say that the first rule is quite valid as applied to him.

    As for “Global Warming,” when government gives up war in the name of lowering emissions, then I might just think of entertaining any of it. Until then, I’m going to stay frosty with my buddies AK, AR, and Glock.

    An American citizen, not US subject.

  110. Amazes me that people actually fall for this nonsense.
    “Never give a sucker an even break.”

    Man, aint that the truth.

  111. Al Gore is the most ignorant imbicille that has ever walked this planet. How can anyone take him seriously?

  112. After it is too late to stop the predicted climate change can we stop worrying about it and go about our lives?

  113. I will cut my temperature back when Al Gore moves out his 20,000 SF house and Barbara Streisand gets rid of her huge climate controlled barn to store her accolades in. Oh, no more private jets either.

  114. It is 17.1ºF here in the North Okanogan region of Washington State. Sod off, Al – I’m going to burn some firewood.

  115. Only now, when it is too late, do you understand. The 97% was a fraud. Hockey stick graph? Fraud. Climategate revealed more fraud, and the person that started it all?, ALSO a fraud. It seems everybody tied to climatology that sided with Gore would also be frauds. It’s far past time to put this cash cow down and redirect funds to things that man CAN control. Like pollution for one. We should clean up the Earth because it is the right thing to do. Not because some charlatan is out to scare you out of your money. Do not let fear rule your life. There is, and always has been, a better way.

  116. “Global warming” is just a money making scheme promoted by the King of Snake Oil Salesmen, Al Gore, and fallen for by the Chicken Littles of the world–who are always looking for something to scare themselves silly about.

  117. Who cares what Al said 10 years ago, NONE of us should be here at all …. PERIOD!:

    Remarkably wrong predictions made on Earth Day 1970.

    “Civilization will end within 15 or 30 years unless immediate action is taken against problems facing mankind.”
    – George Wald, Harvard Biologist

    “Demographers agree almost unanimously on the following grim timetable: by 1975 widespread famines will begin in India; these will spread by 1990 to include all of India, Pakistan, China and the Near East, Africa. By the year 2000, or conceivably sooner, South and Central America will exist under famine conditions….By the year 2000, thirty years from now, the entire world, with the exception of Western Europe, North America, and Australia, will be in famine.”
    – Peter Gunter, professor, North Texas State University

    “It is already too late to avoid mass starvation.”
    – Denis Hayes, chief organizer for Earth Day

    “Scientists have solid experimental and theoretical evidence to support…the following predictions: In a decade, urban dwellers will have to wear gas masks to survive air pollution…by 1985 air pollution will have reduced the amount of sunlight reaching earth by one half….”
    – Life Magazine, January 1970

    “Dr. S. Dillon Ripley, secretary of the Smithsonian Institute, believes that in 25 years, somewhere between 75 and 80 percent of all the species of living animals will be extinct.”
    – Sen. Gaylord Nelson

    “We have about five more years at the outside to do something.”
    – Kenneth Watt, ecologist

    “At the present rate of nitrogen buildup, it’s only a matter of time before light will be filtered out of the atmosphere and none of our land will be usable.”
    – Kenneth Watt, Ecologist

    “The world has been chilling sharply for about twenty years. If present trends continue, the world will be about four degrees colder for the global mean temperature in 1990, but eleven degrees colder in the year 2000. This is about twice what it would take to put us into an ice age.”
    – Kenneth Watt, Ecologist

  118. We must really consider what kind of a world we are going to leave behind for Keith Richards.

  119. This is truly awful. What it is really saying is that we have only 24 days before Al-Buffoon starts another round of long, boring “chicken little/sky is falling” speeches!!

    • Ex-tobacco grower, Big Oil and climate scam profiteer Prince Albert has a lot of explaining to do, which is why the disgusting blob hides these days.

      When Arctic sea ice keeps growing along with the oceanic oscillation switches, the fat masher fool will be nowhere to be found. Except maybe on the Apple board, where his corrupt former dealings with Communist China come in handy.

  120. Al Gore is correct! Everything he has said would happen has happend! Exstream weather! Wildfires in the north west! Oceans rising! So what will be next? The big freeze? Or Soylent Green.😉

  121. I’ve had fun with the Goricle as well.

    I re-uploaded this, tinypic removed it once,
    it may not last long:

    • Haha, too cool, I mean hot, I mean — well great. Love the — we will Barry you!

      Eugene WR Gallun

  122. Sadly, Al Gore, Obama, and the UN are fighting the wrong enemy. The real danger to life is not the rise of the average temperatures by a couple of degrees, even if true. The real danger to mankind, which may be upon us before the end of this century as the new sci-fi novel “Shield of Life” is projecting, is the neglected topic of the slowly depleting ozone layer, which is most definitely man-made!

  123. Brandon,

    “Seriously, that is NOT helping convince me that you have any better idea of what the future holds.”

    That is exactly the point I was making, but it’s not only me. Nobody knows what the future climate will be like. An ice age may set in (we know one is coming eventually), or a big rock from the outer reaches of the solar system may smack us. Perhaps a global pandemic will strike. There’s no point in panicking about any of these these things. The best course of action is to be as prepared as possible for any eventuality and then deal with it if/when it happens. And for us humans that means improving our knowledge and technology, because that’s how we’ve gotten this far. Crippling our power infrastructure and economies is not the answer.

    • Paul Penrose,

      That is exactly the point I was making, but it’s not only me. Nobody knows what the future climate will be like.

      I reiterate MY original point: you therefore have no basis for saying, “Yes, there is nothing to be concerned about.”

      I acknowledge your argument, I simply don’t agree with it. My way of thinking is this: the higher the expressed uncertainty of the future of the climate system, the higher the perceived risk of making changes to it.

      An ice age may set in (we know one is coming eventually), or a big rock from the outer reaches of the solar system may smack us. Perhaps a global pandemic will strike.

      To the best of my knowledge, the ice age cycles over the past million or so years have been timed by Earth’s orbital parameters affecting summertime insolation at high northern latitudes, a la Milankovitch theory …

      … and if you look at the prediction for summertime insolation at 65 degrees N latitude, you will see that it calls for an ever so slight increase over the next few tens of thousands of years. All else being equal (i.e., leaving the system to its own devices), the next full-blown global ice age would not be expected for another 150-200 kyrs from now.

      Re: comet/asteroid strikes and global pandemics; both are things we can and should attempt to reduce the risk of occurring. Even if we could not, the fact that “random” disaster could strike at any time is not a good reason to mitigate climate risk. I see risk as an additive/subtractive (net), not either/or, concept.

      There’s no point in panicking about any of these these things.

      I hold that panic is the absolute worst way to deal with potential threats because panic increases risk. Or another way of putting it, panic is a form of disaster in and of itself.

      The best course of action is to be as prepared as possible for any eventuality and then deal with it if/when it happens.

      I think the better principle is: an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. That does NOT mean I discount the value of being prepared for unforeseen eventualities.

      And for us humans that means improving our knowledge and technology, because that’s how we’ve gotten this far.

      I agree, however again, I do not hold the view that mitigation [1] and adaptation are mutually exclusive.

      Crippling our power infrastructure and economies is not the answer.

      Of course not. I’m not much for cures that are worse than the disease, doubly so for preventative measures. I think all viable options need to be on the table. For me that means nuclear power and natural gas (the former more than the latter, as well as the better long-term option) to replace coal. Solar and wind where it makes sense, and NOT as primary sources. I think that geothermal has not gotten enough attention because I believe it has the best potential to provide reliable baseload power with high uptime percentage AND without the same safety issues as fission.

      Diversification and redundancy are things which I think tend to reduce risk.

      —————

      [1] I’m not big on the use of the word “mitigation” either — it is implicitly limiting. “Migration to” in the sense of “transition to” other forms of energy which emit less CO2 per unit power better represent how I believe we should address climate risk.

  124. Gore has been saying it for decades, since a college class in the 1960s convinced him that greenhouse gases from oil, coal and other carbon emissions were trapping the sun’s heat in the atmosphere, resulting in a glacial meltdown that could flood much of the planet.

    Hmmm…..if he was really all that concerned about CO2 and CAGW (before it had a name), then why did he waste so much time and effort on plugging the ozone hole?

  125. Al GOREBULL also said the our kaliforniah coasts would be under water by 2012. GOREBULL WARMINGS!!!!! Hard to believe this fraud parasite has made money from carbon trading

  126. If by “warmth” you mean heat, I posit there is no change. First, temperature is not a measurement of heat; second, to my knowledge no has actually calculated the heat difference if any for el-nino years, third do we even have the data needed to do the calculation.

  127. George Lawson

    January 4, 2016 at 4:27 am

    Al Gore should be brought to trial for his part in the promotion of the global warming farce that was based on false evidence in order to line his own pockets with millions of dollars, and for the resultant un calculable cost to world economies, and for his part in making the world’s poor a lot worse off.

  128. What those greenies succeeded at doing is merely putting horse blinders on all followers … Why? China doubled coal produciton since “inconveniental Fakes” was shown ten years ago. As a result, we have too much aluminium!! Hooray!We still continue to allow oil producers to flare gas that allows one quarter to one third of natural gas to be wasted so that oil producers can keep drilling for more oil ! Where were they at Paris? Partying around with those fake greenies? We are still greenwashing firewood as “clean ” firewood while we ignore many thousands of chainsaws, logsplitters, hauling pickups that consumes gasoline and diesel to bring firewood to our porches… I still support clean energy but I am no fake!! or Flakey!

  129. Brandon Gates you said :

    “Those who study paleoclimate demonstrably rely on archaeology, paleontology, glaciology, geology and near-countless other -ologies. Would you argue that more or less than half of paleoclimatologists agree that human activities are having an noticeable warming influence on the planet?”

    I call b*ll*cks to that. This site has a full suite of prehistoric data to call you grade one liar.
    In fact the Earth is dying. The atmosphere is escaping. Our recent actions are a blessing from “Gaia”.

    And its always been said anyone who drops in Milankovitch cycles for their last resort must prove from the sum of the graphs what the temperature will be. They try. They cannot because the theory does work in reverse.

    Can anyone show me the total Solar forcing that creates the ices ages here?

    • Andyj,

      I call b*ll*cks to that. This site has a full suite of prehistoric data to call you grade one liar.

      This site, which I included in the post to which you are responding …

      https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/paleoclimatology-data/datasets

      … does indeed contain reams of evidence that climate has changed in the past and is almost certainly always changing. It’s really not clear to me how that makes me a liar for saying: Those who study paleoclimate demonstrably rely on archaeology, paleontology, glaciology, geology and near-countless other -ologies.

      … and then asking: Would you argue that more or less than half of paleoclimatologists agree that human activities are having an noticeable warming influence on the planet?

      Perhaps you could elaborate?

      In fact the Earth is dying. The atmosphere is escaping.

      References?

      And its always been said anyone who drops in Milankovitch cycles for their last resort must prove from the sum of the graphs what the temperature will be.

      Last resort? Try first resort. I know of no other better explanation for 100 kyr glaciation cycles over the past million years than subsequent works based on Milankovitch’s initial calculations.

      They try. They cannot because the theory does work in reverse.

      Yeah, I’ve posted a similar plot at least twice on this very thread. I’m still not seeing a problem, please further explain your meaning.

      Can anyone show me the total Solar forcing that creates the ices ages here?

      Try Berger (1978): http://www.whoi.edu/science/GG/paleoseminar/pdf/berger78.pdf

      You can find data from his subsequent work here:

      ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/berger1995/
      ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/contributions_by_author/berger1996/

  130. Well I don’t believe this for one second but my 9th grade science class teacher said 90% of icebergs are already submerged!! Imagine that!!! Too bad Al Gore wasn’t my classmate….

  131. this thread: a kind of Climate Shock Fair. Confronting scooped pumpkin heads with candle interior lighting.

    Relax –
    just the notorious Al Gore!

    : Makes one smile – Hans

  132. Brandon Gates asks for human sinks; after all, it’s carnival!

    Skulls and Bones comes to mind: CaCO3.

    sweet our sour, take it or leave it to the kids.

    Hans

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