
Guest essay by Eric Worrall
Top British government officials have predictably blamed Climate Change for severe flooding which has afflicted England in recent weeks. But there has also been strong criticism of river management policies.
According to the Sydney Morning Herald;
London: Climate change is forcing England to re-assess its flood defences in the face of unprecedented river level surges, one of the United Kingdom government’s most senior environment officials says.
“We are moving from a period of known extremes into a period of unknown extremes,” said David Rooke, deputy chief executive of the UK government’s Environment Agency, which manages the country’s rivers.
“We will need to re-assess all the defences right across the country.”
He linked the devastating Boxing Day floods, still engulfing swathes of the country, to climate change.
“What we are seeing are record river levels,” he told BBC Radio. “We saw in the Calder Valley in West Yorkshire levels that were a foot to two feet higher that we’d seen previously. We’ve seen similar again in Cumbria and elsewhere right across the north.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/world/unprecedented-flooding-in-britain-prompts-renewed-discussion-about-climate-change-20151228-glw0lw.html
There is another side to this story. Local farmer, historian and author Phillip Walling provides some background on the disastrous river management policies imposed by the bureaucratic European Union, which likely exacerbated the floods (h/t James Delingpole).
It was obvious to people, who depended on the land for their living that failing to keep the rivers clear of sand and gravel would cause them to burst their banks and destroy in a few hours fertility that had taken generations to create, wash away their houses, and drown their livestock.
Last century the obligation to dredge out the rivers was transferred to local river boards, consisting of farmers and landowners who knew the area and its characteristics, and who had statutory responsibilities to prevent or minimise flooding.
But all this changed with the creation of the Environment Agency in 1997 and when we adopted the European Water Framework Directive in 2000. No longer were the authorities charged with a duty to prevent flooding. Instead, the emphasis shifted, in an astonishing reversal of policy, to a primary obligation to achieve ‘good ecological status’ for our national rivers. This is defined as being as close as possible to ‘undisturbed natural conditions’. ‘Heavily modified waters’, which include rivers dredged or embanked to prevent flooding, cannot, by definition, ever satisfy the terms of the directive. So, in order to comply with the obligations imposed on us by the EU we had to stop dredging and embanking and allow rivers to ‘re-connect with their floodplains’, as the currently fashionable jargon has it.
And to ensure this is done, the obligation to dredge has been shifted from the relevant statutory authority (now the Environment Agency) onto each individual landowner, at the same time making sure there are no funds for dredging. And any sand and gravel that might be removed is now classed as ‘hazardous waste’ and cannot be deposited to raise the river banks, as it used to be, but has to be carted away.
Read more: https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/12/26/what-the-authorities-wont-tell-you-about-the-floods/
What’s disappointing, is that this is not the first time the EU directive which discourages proper dredging has been identified as an issue. However, there is very little ordinary people can do to fix this mess.
The European Union, which has ambitions to bind members into a new superstate, which would include all of Europe, parts of Asia, and potentially also include Russia and her allies, is not a very democratic institution. There is no “EU River Management Official” whom ordinary people can vote out of office. While there is an elected European Parliament, the parliament is virtually toothless – it has no real oversight powers, and no power to source new legislation. All new laws are proposed by a soviet style central committee, the European Commission, which also has responsibility for overseeing implementation of the laws.
Back in October, WUWT reported how an Egyptian official tried to blame flooding on climate change, in my opinion to deflect attention from the disastrous state of local drains. The Egyptian official was forced to resign. It seems unlikely anyone in Britain or Europe will be forced to resign, because of mismanagement of Britain’s waterways.
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All roads into the area I live in are now closed due to landslides, fallen trees or floods. Anyone who thinks this is not due to climate change is not living in the real world. As has been said here a thousand times, climate always changes, the question is how much is related to human activity.
And how short our collective memory becomes.
All the roads being closed into our area is a situation which is unprecedented. Our town was developed around 1250, it’s been there a long time. This may have happened before, but there are no records of such a situation. We can pretended it’s all happened before, but at some point we have to sit up and take notice. Even those who are hard bitten opponents of the consensus must realise by now that we have to adapt to a changing situation. I don’t believe there is anyone with any common sense who states that the climate remains static, and for one reason or another, things are changing rapidly. I was a committed sceptic when I first started to read and contribute to this blog, but over the years much of what I have read here convinced me I was wrong. We are in a process of climate change and we need to address the problems that result. It may also be useful to look at the rainfall totals in the UK for November and December. We can’t go on shrugging our shoulder and saying ‘it’s happened before’, that is surely such a head in the sand attitude as to be bizarre.
“We are in a process of climate change ”
We are in the process of changing climate. If that translate to what you observe then it has yet to be proved.
Received this email about 30 times now??? Mick G
From: Watts Up With That? To: mickgreenhough@yahoo.co.uk Sent: Wednesday, 30 December 2015, 11:39 Subject: [New comment] British Officials Blame Climate Change for Floods #yiv6285528710 a:hover {color:red;}#yiv6285528710 a {text-decoration:none;color:#0088cc;}#yiv6285528710 a.yiv6285528710primaryactionlink:link, #yiv6285528710 a.yiv6285528710primaryactionlink:visited {background-color:#2585B2;color:#fff;}#yiv6285528710 a.yiv6285528710primaryactionlink:hover, #yiv6285528710 a.yiv6285528710primaryactionlink:active {background-color:#11729E;color:#fff;}#yiv6285528710 WordPress.com |
RichardLH commented: “”We are in a process of climate change “We are in the process of changing climate. If that translate to what you observe then it has yet to be proved.” | |
This may be of interest. While one weather issue can never be attributed to climate change, the evidence mounts if it happens frequently. Can you imagine living somewhere which has over a meter of rain in one month? http://www.dailypost.co.uk/news/north-wales-news/capel-curig-breaks-record-more-10659924
Ever considered that within your life time ~70 years, the ~60 cycle will not be within your own window of remembrance?
Just read a piece by David Shukman on the BBC site about the “unprecedented criticism” in the aftermath of this latest flooding. He includes some interesting stuff about flood management schemes in different parts of the country, and, of course, climate change gets a mention too. But river management or dredging? Not a word!
Do you know why they put ‘unprecedented’ in quotes?
It is because ‘unprecedented since’ is a tautology and journalists like to be accurate in their use of words.
The true facts are that it is not unprecedented, meanly unusual.
After the Somerset floods in 1914 I constructed some control charts for Winter rain, and they suggest all we are getting is normal British Weather.
Has The UK Had Exceptional Winter Rainfall Or Is It Just Weather As Normal?
See them at https://oldgifford.wordpress.com/
Short collective memory has been pointed out before – and ignored.
Thanks Adrian, and your data shows that the five highest rainfall total have occurred since 1990, and that this years is by far the highest for over a hundred years. I’m reminded of Leicester city FC, languishing near the bottom of the table last year. This year, they are top of the league after constantly winning more matches. Taken as individual results, each match is not that significant, but taken as an over all score we have to suggest that in some way Leicester are playing better football, or that all the other teams have suddenly become worse.
These data showing rainfall anomalies over the last half century are also useful
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/anomalygraphs
Try this as one of the longest UK rainfall records.
http://www.geog.ox.ac.uk/research/climate/rms/rain.html
only applies to the centre of England of course.
Gareth
Thanks for your various thoughtful comments here. Are the current events truly unprecedented? Its a good question. As a historical climatologist I have come to realise that comparing today to the past is difficult
The historic events have to have happened.
It would have to be observed
It would have to be physically noted as being extraordinary
that note would have to survive.
that note would have to be ‘found’ when needed
that record would have to be used in some relevant document
that record would have to be credible.
I am currently researching the 13th Century English climate as I reconstruct CET.. I can probably get back to 1086 eventually but many records are rife with religious or supernatural references, or are legends.
So, assuming an extreme events occurs the likelihood of someone being around to observe it (3 million population in the 1200’s), bother to record it and for that record to survive becomes increasingly less likely the further back in time one goes. As I can see from examining the archives and library at the Met Office, a great proportion of those records that do survive are not digitised. if they are not digitised, to many desk bound researchers, they do not exist.
There have been numerous periods of extreme wetness in Britain. It seems to go in phases. The worst rainfall events appear to happen during the colder periods rather than the warmer ones.. The 12th century seems to me to not only have been a notably cool century overall-the glaciers advanced again after hundreds of years of retreat-but it was often extraordinarily wet. This often caused famines as crops could not be sown or reaped or mills were washed away. The current rainfall extremes do not seem to be in the same league. Our inability to deal with flooding is obvious from the many even handed comments in this thread.
Whether your town has records back to 1250 I don’t know. But a search in that century would reveal extraordinary weather.
tonyb
Further to the photo of the flooded field, it is true. I makes you wonder how they got planning permission for a field in a flood plain.
http://maps.environment-agency.gov.uk/wiyby/wiybyController?value=harry+stoke&submit.x=0&submit.y=0&lang=_e&ep=map&topic=floodmap&layerGroups=default&scale=9&textonly=off#x=363262&y=178897&lg=1,2,10,&scale=9
http://maps.environment-agency.gov.uk/wiyby/wiybyController?x=372500.0&y=435500.0&topic=floodmap&ep=map&scale=9&location=Billington,%20Lancashire&lang=_e&layerGroups=default&distance=&textonly=off
http://www.rightmove.co.uk/commercial-property-for-sale/property-50892341.html#location
Ah, I see, you are saying these records are false, or do you have evidence that this particular situation in North Waes has occurred before? I did not ignore your post, I just could not find any evidence to support it. Perhaps you could find data that will help the discussion and show the events our ‘collective memory’ has forgotten?
Try this starting point.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_floods
Thanks Richard, but you list contains everything from Tidal floods resulting from the breaches of dykes and North sea surges, monsoon floods. We need to be a bit more specific. My contention was that the rainfall and resultant flooding where I live was unprecedented . There are no records of it previously happening. Now I accept there may well have been worse floods at the end of the ice age, or that Typhoons in the Philippines result in more damage. But lets focus on the one area in question. We have records in the UK going back to the 1600s which make UK based observations particularly useful. So if you, or indeed anyone else can find records of over i meter of rain falling in one month on Anglesey, or nearby, I’d love to see it and would help you in your contention that it’s all happened before with equal frequency and there is nothing out of the ordinary in this weather.
OK. So reduce the list to rainfall only if you wish. Follow the extended links to the UK for finer details. The Weather is not that keen on observing country boundaries but…
P.S. You would not expect any one sample point to be truly representative of what happens close by. Weather is a little to quasi-chaotic for that.
More propaganda !http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jan/30/dredging-rivers-floods-somerset-levels-david-cameron-farmers
Ah, the mistaken belief that nature always creates a better system than an engineered one. At least we can blame the Weather/Climate for any failings. The Somerset levels are only inhabitable at all because we engineered them to be that way in the first place.
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/david-cameron-overrules-environment-secretary-owen-paterson-to-order-urgent-dredging-in-somerset-to-9110120.html
A year old story which apparently never resulted in much change. More smoke and mirrors than a solution.
Richard, your link was very useful. It does indeed show that there have been high amounts of rainfall previously. But can you see the increasing frequency in your data for that happening? Like Leicester city, an individual result is a one off, but when it becomes a frequent result it is significant, and that is precisely what your data shows.
The increase on already high rainfall is remarkable. If this were a league table, this year would be top. Seeing as you wish to expand the data, this CET record might interest you. http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=cet;sess= Look at the temperature variation. Anthony agrees that the atmosphere is warming, though he contends on how much and the reason. Warmer air hold more moisture.
The point is that we can debate about the reasons for the increasing rainfall, we can argue about it’s severity. But promoting the idea that it is nothing unusual and there is no need to take action is inappropriate. We need to start adapting now, stop building houses on flood plains, increase the height of flood barriers and dredging rivers if it helps. Taking a stance of ‘nothing unusual, move along there’ will be disastrous in the longer term.
It seems to me that( and this is purely subjective) that the result of climate change is that any weather you find is not good for your location will get worse, wet places wetter, dry places dryer etc.
Please see the reference above about how individual points do not provide a true picture of even quite local events. See Devon in the above for an example (good or bad).
You did see the link to the Radcliffe Meteorological Station above didn’t you? That’s the longest record in the UK. Only truly applies to central england, Does not represent his or coasts that well.
Hills damn it.
Just got another 21 of this email??? Mick G
From: Watts Up With That? To: mickgreenhough@yahoo.co.uk Sent: Wednesday, 30 December 2015, 13:26 Subject: [New comment] British Officials Blame Climate Change for Floods #yiv0333540141 a:hover {color:red;}#yiv0333540141 a {text-decoration:none;color:#0088cc;}#yiv0333540141 a.yiv0333540141primaryactionlink:link, #yiv0333540141 a.yiv0333540141primaryactionlink:visited {background-color:#2585B2;color:#fff;}#yiv0333540141 a.yiv0333540141primaryactionlink:hover, #yiv0333540141 a.yiv0333540141primaryactionlink:active {background-color:#11729E;color:#fff;}#yiv0333540141 WordPress.com Gareth Phillips commented: “Richard, your link was very useful. It does indeed show that there have been high amounts of rainfall previously. But can you see the increasing frequency in your data for that happening? Like Leicester city, an individual result is a one off, but when it” | |
Your machine, not the rest of the World most probably.
Where I live, in all the newer subdivisions, they make big retention areas that are normally just a big grassy field where kids can play but during heavy rains will take in large amounts of run-off water from the area and then let it out slowly through a 1′ pipe to help big rushes of water going into the river and causing flooding. It’s just older areas don’t have this planning or places to dig retention ponds.
We built on most of them. That’s why they flood.
Notice the lack of very old buildings under water. Just nice shiny new ones.
The problem is political. There’s been a monopoly mind set of the 3 main past parties and it’s all been of a liberal mindset. And with this in mind they set about joining Left wing federal Europe. USSR2.
No most countries are in it because they’ve got it stitched up to benefit them in some fashion. But with British liberal elite its more about begin able to blame someone else for when things go wrong so that they get voted in next time. So they are quite happy to dissolve their own power over to the EU. And but up EU’s love for red tape with a Nazi like zeal for obeying the rules. Even when these when these are green rules that send the UK back to some thousand year old state of being under water.
King Alfred hiding in marshes. King John losing his baggage. A very wet land that has undergone hundreds of years of drainage. Do the, ‘get it back to nature’ EU bureaucrats care, of course not. Do British leaders follow the rules like poodles, of course they do. Even if it means the UK goes under, under a lot of water as long dredged rivers fill up to the top with silt and debris.
Billions could have been spent on flood defences, but Billions were spent on windmills.
It’s as if the EU and politics want floods in order to prove their costly windmills policy right.
— — —
2 Feb 1945 Flooding of roads around Hebden Bridge.
20 Sept 1946 Flooding in Hebden Bridge
8 Sept 1951 flooding at Hebden Bridge
21 Jan 1954 Hebden Bridge
22 Aug 1954 Serious flooding at Hebden Bridge
http://eyeoncalderdale.com/history-of-flooding-in-calderdale
“You need to get rid of all the shale and silt that
has built up over the last 30 years and get the river
back to the level it was at in 1960.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-leeds-25404188
Mr Greenwood said: “I wrote to Mr Cameron’s office prior….
I was told he was unavailable for discussion during my visit.
http://www.todmordennews.co.uk/news/flood-campaigners-march-on-number-10-1-5787953
10,000 UK homes built on flood plains each year
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/10000-uk-homes-built-on-flood-plains-each-year-a6788816.html
Green money:
EU Solidarity fund.
https://www.eureporter.co/world/2014/08/27/eu-solidarity-fund-commission-moves-to-help-italy-greece-slovenia-and-croatia-after-flood-earthquake-and-ice-storm-disasters/
EU climate change fund
At least 20% of the EU budget will be spent on climate action by 2020.
http://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/finance/index_en.htm
EU Cohesion Fund allocates a total of € 63.4 billion…
as long as they clearly benefit the environment
http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/en/funding/cohesion-fund/
Sir Philip Dilley, (EA) who earns £100,000 a year as the boss of the agency,
has chosen to stay away as the flood crisis continues.
http://www.itv.com/news/calendar/update/2015-12-28/floods-chief-on-holiday-in-barbados/
The Philip Walling Letter
EU dredging rules make effective flood prevention in Britain impossible
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/letters/12046126/Letters-EU-dredging-rules-make-effective-flood-prevention-in-Britain-impossible.html
Of Somerset.
However it found that 9 out of 10 houses in Northmoor and Saltmoor would have avoided being severely flooded if dredging had been carried out earlier.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-somerset-33854141
This is what were up against. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/john-mcdonnell-says-cutting-foreign-aid-to-pay-for-flood-defences-would-make-matters-worse-in-the-a6789086.html
yes, of course Politics has so much to do with science.
Does anyone think that the pressures on land prices and availability in the UK is not driven by the lack of dealing with speculative local and foreign investment, distorting the property market to the point where most of us are Paupers living in Mansions with no hope of passing the accumulated wealth to the children, but not tackled because it might cause a property crash. All that inflation pushed continuously into that market by subsidies/discounts that the tax payer provides. A tighter and tighter spiral that always breaks in the end.
And then to try and say that because things were bad in the past, with no apportionment of party political blame, use to try those facts to Politically attack for Politic ends staggers me.
For a Met Office blog, a look at how rainfall has and hasn’t changed over recorded history in central UK, that may not make it to the news pages
http://blog.metoffice.gov.uk/tag/oxford-radcliffe-observatory/
In the UK November and December 2015 have had a consistent south westerly wind from fairly often tropical maritime source. This has especially occurred more so in December with air moving North from Africa and even bringing sand with it in the frontal systems. The high rainfall amounts were mainly localized events with those regions exposed to long fetch of open ocean water and with warm tropical air coming in contact with much cooler polar maritime air sometimes placed over Scotland.
The result was especially orographic rain that is rainfall produced as a result of clouds formed from the topography of the land. Where there is high ground moist air is forced upwards producing cloud and potentially, precipitation. This often leads to the intensification of rainfall, although many places also had very high rainfall in these regions where hills/mountains had little/no influence. Unfortunately the outcome was very serious flooding in many of these regions during December especially, with saturated land from the previous month.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/anomacts/2015/11/2015_11_Rainfall_Anomaly_1981-2010.gif
December will also show a similar anomaly map, but even wetter in some of these regions than November. This has lead to record monthly rainfall in some regions and December has now become the mildest recorded since records began. This was at least caused by the strong El Nino when early winters have often a Euro high that causes southerly winds to the west of it around NW Europe especially. The persistence of this Euro high since during November has led to these regions becoming very mild and especially wet. Recently the Euro high has moved northwards and may bring a change in the weather in the near future, with much colder air in the mix. The biggest direct factor has overall been the very unusual reluctant source of tropical maritime air pushing northwards towards the UK on a daily basis for weeks.
A book I’m fond of is the late Robin Stirling’s ‘The Weather of Britain’ ISBN 1-900357-06-02. He was a professional meteorologist.
Chapter 6 is entitled ‘Some Days Bring Deluges’, and I’ll describe a few of the many floods he covers in detail. He describes for example a disastrous flood at Louth, Lincolnshire in 1920, and serious flooding in the city of Norwich in 1912. He mentions a tablet set into a wall which records the high water mark for severe floods of the past. The highest prior to the flood described was in 1614, but the 1912 flood went 15 inches higher. He tells us that ‘much damage was done to roads and bridges throughout the county’.
He also comments that ‘it must not be thought strange that so many new records were broken in the early years of the 20th century: records cannot be broken until there are records in existence to break’.
The documentation of UK floods in the past goes on for several pages – in 1833, 1897, 1917, 1924, 1929, 1930, 1931, 1937 for example and continuing right up to recent times. In 1931 Boston in Lincolnshire had a quarter of a year’s worth of rainfall dumped on the city in two hours. This happened again in 1937. In August 1952, Exmoor suffered a flooding disaster following a wet month. The peat and shales of Exmoor were unable to absorb the vast quantities of water, which surged down the valleys of the East and West Lyn rivers, carrying enormous boulders and washing away houses, hotels , and sweeping 130 cars out to sea. A seven-ton boulder was found in the basement of one hotel.
Stirling shows a photo of the scene in Milbrook, Guildford in September 1968, commenting that some shops in the High Street were flooded to a depth of almost eight feet, and that 1968 will long be remembered for ‘the floods’.
Importantly, Stirling states that caution is needed in assessing changes in the frequency of flooding as indicators of climate change. He mentions that Exmoor’s rainfall varies between 49 and 79 inches in a year. (An inch of water is the equivalent of 100 tons per acre, or 4840 square yards. I find it’s easier to think of this as the area bounded by a square of seven buses on each side, a bus being about 30 feet long).
So, severe floods are nothing new in the UK!
Latest news. Of course we cannot blame any of this on the fact the climate is changing, and yet, and yet……
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35204014
Ignorance (of natural cycles) is bliss. Or at least considerably cheaper.
“We entered a generally flood-poor period in the 1960s, earlier in some parts of the country, later in others. This does not mean there was no flooding, just that there was much less than before the 1960s and what we are seeing now. This has lowered our own awareness of flood risk in the UK. This has made it easier to go on building on floodplains. It has also helped us to believe that we can manage flooding without too much cost, simply because there was not that much flooding to manage.”
https://www.dur.ac.uk/news/newsitem/?itemno=6468
Evidence from Pickering, Yorkshire, make it clear that blaming the flooding on global warming and building larger flood barriers – that is, conventional wisdom – it completely idiotic. The author of a recent article in the Guardian appears to be utterly confused. Or have I misinterpreted his warmist waffling?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-flooding-how-a-yorkshire-flood-blackspot-worked-with-nature-to-stay-dry-a6794286.html
So it was not the failure of our governments after 2008 collapse of the world economy to respond rightly.
What was initiated by
the Clintons and Goldmann Sachs -and executed by Obama.
So british governments are left with no money at all to corresponding reaction to ‘weather’.
Just asking – Hans
The cost of dealing with floods in the UK is proportional to government flood defence expenditure. The right wing Tory government have chosen to let the people drown (sorry, down), cutting government expense for flood protection year on year as they continue to reward their donors and ignore real life.
Sorry, missed the word ‘inversely’. Insert as appropriate.