Guest essay by Andy May
It is difficult to compare 1840 to 2015, so much of what we have today didn’t exist then. But, they had to move people and goods from place to place as we do now. They had farms then as we do now. They used wagons pulled by horses, mules or oxen. We use cars and airplanes. They used muscle power to farm, we use tractors, combines, grain carts, and trucks powered by petroleum fuels. In 1840 crude oil and natural gas production and use were rare. Coal was used in manufacturing, but steam engines were still in their infancy. So the world in 1840 was fossil fuel free for the most part. Biofuels, that is burning wood and dung, were common. Windmills would not appear until 1854. Hydropower was not in common use until after 1849. Solar power had not been invented yet.
The cost of gasoline can be seen on the sign at any gas station, but what is its value? Using gasoline or diesel saves us time and manual labor. It also saves air, water and waste pollution. Let us not forget that the automobile was lauded as a great environmental improvement after the “Great Horse Manure Crisis” of 1894. Nothing like having horse manure up to your knees to help you appreciate gasoline!
How much manual labor is replaced when we use gasoline? In other words what is the value of gasoline? In large part our standard of living is determined by the difference between what we pay for petroleum fuels and coal and their value in time and labor. I’ll try and compute that value by comparing a 1,812 mile trip, along the Oregon Trail from Independence, Missouri to Oregon City in 1840 with a trip today. I’ll also compute the value of diesel by comparing a 10 acre grain harvest in 1840 to a harvest today.
In 1840 to make the 1,812 mile trip, most people used Prairie Schooner wagons pulled by six oxen. Oxen were cheaper than horses or mules and could survive on lower quality grass. The total cost of an equipped Prairie Schooner with Oxen was around $1,000 in 1840 money, the equivalent of $23,373 today. The normal time to make the trip was 4.5 months or 137 days. Fuel for the Oxen was free.
Today we have two choices for the trip. We could drive a car for $1,052 using the IRS business car reimbursement of $0.575 or fly a family of four for $1016. The driving time would be two days. Fuel would be about 72 gallons at $144. Using these figures and considering the 135 extra days in 1840 at today’s minimum wage of $7.25, the value of the gasoline is $411 per gallon for the driving case. A family of four flying in a Boeing 757 will use 92 gallons of jet fuel according to wikipedia, so the value per gallon of the jet fuel is $329. But, the trip is much quicker and easier than driving.
Figure 1: The trip today
Figure 2: The trip in 1840
But, traveling isn’t the only thing that has improved since 1840 due to the invention of gasoline and the internal combustion engine. Farming is much more efficient. In 1840 nearly everyone was employed in the agricultural industry or supported it in some fashion. Now only a small portion of our population is engaged in farming. According to the USDA farm workers are only 1% of US workers.
In order to harvest 10 acres of grain in 1840, it took 130 men working all day. The average wage in 2015 for farm workers in the US is $12.27, this is a total cost of $12,761 in 2015 dollars to harvest 10 acres in one day. In 2015 40 skilled farm workers can harvest 450 acres in one day. Farms are larger today and much more efficient, so we need to scale down to 10 acres to do a valid comparison. On a large modern farm, the cost of the men required, a combine, grain cart and truck to harvest 10 acres sums to $540. The total diesel and lubricant required comes to 24 gallons. This results in a value of $509 per gallon of diesel. So, generally we are paying about $2 per gallon for fuels that are worth over 100 times that, a pretty good deal. The details of the calculations described in this post can be found, along with more references, here.
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Even better, in the future, you will be able to redirect sensory input to your brain from a mechanical surrogate you. This surrogate can be replaced by any in the world, which gives you the ability to teleport instantly to almost any place you want to go. Just build the surrogates, the network, and your interface to the network. Your travel cost is then almost zero. Energy cost drops to near zero. Risk of dysentery and vehicle transport disaster goes to near zero. You may still need your caloric input, unless you choose to discard much of your body. No doubt many people will prefer to stay in their immortal and ageless bodies. Any image of themselves can be inserted into the data stream to replace “reality”. After say, age 75, you could become body-minimal. Your life could be lived entirely from a support pod in the virtual world.
A live human walking on a city street might see plain mechanical devices moving around. They might even be very much non-anthropomorphic, just sensory devices mounted on a framework. Perhaps more like head on a stalk with branches going to branched manipulators with mounted tactile sensors. The Stream in the Cloud would map a visual-quality CG image of yourself into your Stream and the Stream of every other telepresence having you in their visual field. All things “known” to the Cloud will be represented to the user as a random selection from a set of premeasured feelings, smells, tastes, looks, and sounds, unless the real object data are being fed through the Stream.
Eventually, as the number of live humans on the street drops to near zero, the surrogates might do away with vocalizaiton altogether. People still walking around will need Stream receivers to hear people and some sort of VR goggles to see who they are talking to. And thus, we see how not physically moving the people, but moving their sensory input devices is much cheaper. They could easily survive going on trip under the ocean to the top of Everest with little risk and little special equipment. You might have to schedule a Jump to a new Stream a long time in advance for popular Stream locations. You won’t be able to put 10 billion Streams in the same place at the same time.
Just how we transmit a few terabytes per second of information from 10 billion surrogates anywhere in the world to 10 billion pods I can’t say. How we provide the neural interface, I can’t say. People living in 1840 might have imagined a steam-powered personal vehicle traveling like a wagon without oxen over the prairie. Cities might have been envisioned having some too. And one day, a flying De Lorean might be powered by Mr. Fusion. Or, people living in 1965 might have seen a world where people would have communicators they could flip open with no wires, data stored in a solid material, the ability to talk to and listen to a computer having a female voice, and large detailed images shown on a flat-screen device with no projector.
And even better, surrogates may be how one day we will be able to actually “live” on the Moon, out in the open, in cities constructed by robots just for those who want to live in telepresence. You’d get used to the 2 second delay in speaking with people. If you want to eliminate that delay, Your pod might be taken to the Moon or Mars.
We will really have made it when our consciousness can be put into a solid state device and we can pick any mechanical method of transporting it we want. We could still jump from device to device. At that point we will be immortal, we could live anywhere, and go anywhere. We will all be much smarter than any corporeal humans. There will be no crime. Perhaps sadly, the ancient human race will probably be reduced to a few million relic corporeals. Maybe some preserves could be set aside for them.
What is “good” is decided by the people who live at the time decisions are made. Except, Nature does have veto power. Every so often, humans are reminded of that fact.
This “surrogate” idea already exists in movie form as I recall. Aha! Sure enough, there was the movie “Surrogates” in 2009, but I never saw it. Hey! Maybe I’ll watch that tonight.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0986263/
Happy New Year!
Think I’ll pass on your ‘brave new world’, Hoser, but thanks for the offer and Happy New Year to you too.
My surrogate will go skiing and leave chores to me.
The whole point in denying us the use of fossil fuels is to kill capitalism.
“The whole point in denying us the use of fossil fuels is to kill capitalism.”
Which is a fool’s errand because capitalism is not restrained by anything but government. Read William Bradford’s entries for how Plimoth Plantation was saved in 1623 when they replaced the communist model with a capitalist model. People produce the most when they can keep ALL of the fruits of their labor. Capitalism produces a surplus, state enforced communism produces poverty.
After the Model T, it took some 60 years until you could drive a car across the continent like that. Wonder how long it will take to do that via electric and cheaper? Maybe even without steering most of the way?
It won’t take 60 years, that’s for sure.
Comparing apples to rutabagas again, traffy? It is highly unlikely that electric cars will be able to compete economically with gasoline-powered, particularly since you carbonophobes seem so anxious to cause electric rates to skyrocket.
After 50 years, what have they got?
Including the manufacture of concrete and asphalt, let’s see anyone build modern highways using ONLY solar and wind power.
And Obama lied, (what’s new…), government didn’t create roads for cars – private entrepreneurs first built them as toll roads, (ditto airports). It took government 60 years to catch up to the reality of their worth to society. And BTW, national security was the main purpose of building our interstate roadway system after WW2 exposed the vulnerability of rail transport.
Joanne Nova has a great thread up today, which is relevant to this topic:
Where is the due diligence on 600 billion dollars invested in “decarbonisation”?
http://joannenova.com.au/2015/12/where-is-the-due-diligence-on-600-billion-dollars-invested-in-decarbonisation/#comment-1774011
Very interesting. Thanks.
Farming was labor intensive and the history of mechinization is interesting.
There are “old iron” groups that try to save the historic machines.
Below is one method younger and/or city folks might not know about.
For awhile seeds were planted after wires were strung acorss a field and the wire would “trip” the seed-planter at each crossing.
http://www.farmcollector.com/implements/check-row-planting-by-the-book.aspx
Andy May,
Thank you for the interesting take on the value of petroleum fuels.
One could also get there in winter, without having to eat anybody else!
Let’s remember what fossil fuels replaced.
Whale oil.
GreenPeace wouldn’t have even existed because all the whales would be gone.
——————-
I think of the value of gasoline as $1 of gas will move your car and you, 10 kms. How much work would it take to push you and your car to the end of the road in this picture? Two days of hard physical labor. Would you pay $1, made in 5 minutes at your job, for which you are trained and specialized in, to avoid those 2 days of hard labor.
That is the value of fossil fuels.
http://www.shoutgodsfame.net/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/pushing.jpg
“That is the value of fossil fuels.” That value easily being the highest when they fuel free market capitalism.
Thank you Andy for this article.
I have worked in the energy industry for much of my career.
When challenged on this question by green fanatics, I explain that that fossil fuels keep their families from freezing and starving to death.
Cheap abundant reliable energy is the lifeblood of society – it IS that simple.
A few facts:
Wind Power is what warmists typically embrace – trillions of dollars have been squandered on worthless grid-connected wind power schemes that require life-of-project subsidies and drive up energy costs.
Some background on grid-connected wind power schemes:
The Capacity Factor of wind power is typically a bit over 20%, but that is NOT the relevant factor.
The real truth is told by the Substitution Capacity, which is dropping to as low as 4% in Germany – that is the amount of conventional generation that can be permanently retired when wind power is installed into the grid.
The E.ON Netz Wind Report 2005 is an informative document:
http://www.wind-watch.org/documents/wp-content/uploads/eonwindreport2005.pdf
(apparently no longer available from E.ON Netz website).
Figure 6 says Wind Power is too intermittent (and needs almost 100% spinning backup);
and
Figure 7 says it just gets worse and worse the more Wind Power you add to the grid (see Substitution Capacity dropping from 8% to 4%).
Same story applies to grid-connected Solar Power (both in the absence of a “Super-Battery”).
This was all obvious to us decades ago – we published similar conclusions in 2002.
Trillions of dollars have been wasted globally on green energy that is not green and produces little useful energy.
Regards to all, Allan
Allan,
Thanks for the insights and analysis. Substitution capacity of 4%? Why in the world are these wind-turbine monstrosities being built?
Wind-power is madness. Fetish; pure religious fetish. There will come a day in our future when we look up at long-abandoned wind turbines; rusting relics, and wonder what madness could have possessed people to erect such useless, wasteful things.
Greg O
At least the Easter Island head didn’t chop endangered raptors.
And have some aesthetic value . . . .
Auto.
Is there a formula to determine the “environmental cost of capital”? It’s always struck me that a portion of the substities directed at renewables are dollars that were created burning fossil fuels… right? So when taxes generated by say, a coal power plant or a long distance freight company, are used to subsidize solar panels, why aren’t the emissions counted?
There is a formula — it takes the form of the market prices for the various capital, labor, and fuel inputs. You can figure is something costs more, more resources in some form were used to produce it.
The LEED building certification is an attempt to take into account those indirect environmental impacts without reverting to figuring out what things cost. You get LEED points for using wood, but not the wrong kind of wood, and on and on.
There are energy savings to be accomplished simply by cost cutting — more efficient light bulbs and examples. Concentrate on what saves money rather than what has social signaling of environmental virtue.
Obama wanted to shrink the American economy. He has done so and continues his war with an EPA proxy, to bypass Congress, it seems. Ironically, if gas prices stay down for a longer term, this could actually stimulate the economy. Cheaper deliveries for companies. The delivery trade is now growing as expenses go down and customers do more online shopping. The long term prediction is low oil prices until about 2020. If the economy fires on all cylinders for the first time in a long, long time, then this could actually be a boon to the voters. The next POTUS has his/her work cut out – undoing a lot of harmful edicts from on-high.
I thought of another caveat. With low oil prices some companies might be able to jack up the price of gasoline by shutting down refineries – when they don’t have to do so for refurbishing purposes, IMO.
Just a quibble , but to date use of water power to the invention of the turbine in 1849 is disingenuous . I lived in the “Flour City” , Rochester NY for several years and to quote https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rochester,_New_York
Today the slots in the cliff of the old mills are an attraction with restaurants and museums in some of the old buildings . You can see the transition from water wheels to turbines placed deep in the cuts in the cliff which was surely a great increase in efficiency , but far from the beginning of the use of water power .
These calculations are fatally flawed. One must apply “green math” in order to arrive at a proper conclusion. When we apply a “natural multiplier” to the equation (“natural” is 1,000 times better than “unnatural”), we find that 500 times more expensive “then” divided by 1,000 times “more natural then” yields a “better now than then “factor of 0.5. Therefore, we were twice as efficient and well off in 1840 as we are today (and now we don’t even find weevils in our morning biscuits).
As a retired Iron Worker, I have to wonder….How long would it take to put up a 20 story high rise using ” Green Energy ” ?
Marcus
Yurts are the thing.
20-storey – sorry, it pales into insignificance compared to the anti-obesity benefits of the yurt.
These include: –
1 carrying water, to drink, cook, bathe, irrigate . . . .
2 chopping down trees
2 A planting trees for the children
3 chopping up trees
4 transporting chopped up trees
5 waving drying airs across chopped-up trees
6 carrying tree ash to where it may best be used to encourage tree growth.
6 A carrying chamber pots to where cleaning water is available..
Ah NB: unless seeking to study dysentery, this needs to be well downstream of the source for # 1 above; and hope nobody lives upstream.
7 In col weather, consider shivering in a yurt.
Auto – I passed a yurt hire place west of London today. Even in a very mild (weather) December holiday, it didn’t look busy [From the Car – maybe they’re maxed out . . . .].
Auto, I’m not too sure about 6A….When your standing on a six inch beam, in the middle of a Canadian winter, 200 feet above the ground, you don’t really wait for the chamber pot…You just ummmm….go !! LOL
P.S. How high can you build a Yurt ????
No one could afford the steel made from “green energy”.
In col Weather =
In cooooool weather . . .
Do see above response to Gunga Din
Auto
Shame on you! You equivocated dollar costs with the value of clean air. You’re a typical climate denier.
Air is far more valuable than money. Didn’t you know that? That’s why undeveloped countries want to get huge monetary payouts to….oh, wait a minute….
Very good post. On minor quibble is “Windmills would not appear until 1854”. The reference explains the most important application of windmills at the subsistence level has been mechanical water pumping using relatively small systems with rotor diameters of one to several meters. That system was perfected in 1854. My point is that wind mills were used to grind grain in locations where there wasn’t available water for many years before that. There still are 11 such wind mills on Long Island in New York (http://www.discoverlongisland.com/paththroughhistory/famous-long-island/windmills/).
rogercaiazza
And, worldwide, in EVERY building, factory, village, town,city and industry …. As soon as ANYTHING else became available OTHER THAN wind power, that replacement system was immediately used. Yes, windmills were used first. But, water was used where it could be over wind at EVERY stream where the flow flowed and a dam could be built. Then coal + fire + water vapor, then coal + fire + steam + vacuums, then higher pressure steam, then belt, then electricity, kerosene, gasoline, diesel. Nuclear, perhaps fusion in the future.
The ONLY use worldwide where wind has replaced more efficient, more effective, less costly and more reliable systems is where it has been mandated by politicians and extremists. NEVER by engineers, owners, operators, users, customers and the economy.
Don’t forget the about 4% death rate on the Oregon Trail compared to the hazards or road/air travel today.
Thanks for the excellent posting. It is astounding how ignorant the MSM and are politicians are of the contribution fossil fuels , steel, railroads, etc have made to our lifestyle today.
The history channel documentary below is an eye opener and should be mandatory viewing in our schools rather than the progressive brainwashing they receive today.
As one who has spent a career in the energy business, I was impressed how Rockefeller brought kerosene to the masses so they could have cheap light after the sun set. When the other famous men of history brought electricity to the country via coal to further improve our lifestyle replacing kerosene, Rockefeller “invented” gasoline which had a dramatic impact on transportation and our lifestyle without horse dung all over the streets.
It is a sad pity that the greenies fail to to realize how these developments have helped, mostly the common worker!! They know nothing about history and the benefits of fossil fuel for travel and keeping warm. It is pathetic. If they want to go back in time living w/o fossil fuels, let them go first in their ignorance, let us alone we do not believe their lies.
Interesting those pushing this, have the largest and most costly to the taxpayers carbon footprint of all especially the President of the USA.. Lead by example.
Below is the real history of man getting out of pollution and poverty.
http://www.history.com/shows/men-who-built-america
http://www.history.com/shows/men-who-built-america/about
“John D. Rockefeller, Cornelius Vanderbilt, Andrew Carnegie, Henry Ford and J.P. Morgan rose from obscurity and in the process built modern America. Their names hang on street signs, are etched into buildings and are a part of the fabric of history. These men created the American Dream and were the engine of capitalism as they transformed everything they touched in building the oil, rail, steel, shipping, automobile and finance industries. Their paths crossed repeatedly as they elected presidents, set economic policies and influenced major events of the 50 most formative years this country has ever known. From the Civil War to the Great Depression and World War I, they led the way.
Using state of the art computer generated imagery that incorporates 12 million historical negatives, many made available for the first time by the Library of Congress, this series will bring back to life the world they knew and the one they created. The event series will show how these men took a failed experiment in democracy and created the greatest superpower the world has ever seen. We see how their historic achievements came to create the America of today.”
Oil is not going away anytime soon in the US of A … Uncle Buffett invested 40B (his largest bet evah) back a few year ago in rails and shipping oil was the vig kicker.
Nice huh ?
Fool the people about CAGW.
Waste a bunch of money on sun/wind.
Kill a pipeline that puts millions of people at greater risk by pushing shipment to rail.
If I was a cartoonist, I’d draw a feeding trough with winners munching away and coal chained to the fence.
It’s so ….. I can’t quite think of the word ….
The left (grudgingly) will admit that horse waste was a problem:
http://thetyee.ca/News/2013/03/06/Horse-Dung-Big-Shift/
but barely…
People fall into two camps either they strive to control the physical world
or they strive to control other people.
We are all capable of doing either. Most I think are predisposed to the former.
Ironically, abundant, reliable, affordable power has to an extent relieved many
of us from the necessity of striving to control the real world.
So what is left to feel a sense of accomplishment or self worth.
Vanity all is Vanity! Hmm I’m sure I’ve heard that before.