Hearing: Data or Dogma? Promoting Open Inquiry in the Debate over the Magnitude of Human Impact on Earth’s Climate
US Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation.
Dr. Curry ask to respond to “denier” charge from Sen. Markey, and cites IPCC in her testimony. Steyn spars with Sen. Markey while Markey acts like he’s an authoritarian on the issue.
More video to follow.
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Friends, I don’t think the distinguished scientists were there for debate. They were there for expert testimony. Markey tried to debate and fell flat, choosing to ignore the expert testimony before him. A very poor actor with an impeachable character. Just terrible.
No, Markey tried to shut down any debate (as did another Democrat) by saying “I didn’t ask a question” Senator Cruz was quick to allow a response from the panel. I agree that Markey fell flat. He is obviously an indoctrinated bore accessorised with spittle.
True.
@heysuess, you are right. but ” there are more videos to follow” is something we should all do and then see what happened in the rest of the Hearings.
But Markey doesn’t know that it’s “the warmest year” SINCE 1979 when the satellite record began.
But only because of adjustments and not – IIRC – in the satellite record, but rather in the surface stations data which has been pureed – ah, make that homogenized – and “adjusted” until no one really knows the reality.
And he chooses not to acknowledge that 2014 was only fractionally warmer than 1998, meaning statistically global temperature has been flat for a human generation. He flourished his hand skyward and actually said temperatures were climbing “straight upward”.
“flourished his hand skyward and said temperatures were climbing straight upward.”
unchallenged…
That depends on the aspect ratio of the chart he’s looked at, and the compression ratio of the horizontal axis.
Not according to either major satellite metric, it isn’t.
Anyone have a quick link to Curry’s written testimony?
https://curryja.files.wordpress.com/2015/12/curry-senate-testimony-2015.pdf
http://www.commerce.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/f739759e-3f1b-447e-a1eb-d42bbe70454e/FBA0C80EBB0D0B6545922F1D45D18C75.dr.-judith-curry-testimony.pdf
thank you, thank you, thank you !
Thank you.
Kelvin Duncan December 9, 2015 at 1:36 pm
More please. This exchange between a well-informed and able scientist plus and author with a belief backer dramatically shows the intransigence, ignorance and duplicity of the warmist position. Thank God for open government.
Oh yes indeed!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I think Judith Curry played a blinder (UK term for a clever strategy) – I believe she simply let Markey open his mouth and sh!t all over his foot.
Marvellous Judith Curry and Mark Steyn, both courageous heroes. ‘Veritas magna est et prevalebit’! The truth is great and will prevail. Stick at it.
Yes, but consider how many witches were burned around Salem before truth finally prevailed. How long to undo the damage, and untangle the webs they are weaving?
The most useful part of the hearing was understanding what warmunists like Markey see as their key talking points. It enables the rest of us to develop ‘bullet proof’ sound bite responses. Examples:
To Markey on post 1970 warming: there was a statistically indistinguishable like amount from 1920-1945 that the IPCC says could not have been anthropogenic. Has natural variability disappeared? Essay C?aGw.
To Titley on I am just a sailor, but my chart shows no pause: I see you are using the ‘ new improved’ 2015 Karl version. Do you know that NOAA’s same chart in 2014 showed a 14 year pause, acknowledged by the IPCC in AR5? And, are you aware that NOAA is presently in contempt of congress over the House science oversight committee’s subpeona to understand the background motivation of that startling change, which whistle blowers from within NOAA have told the committee was rushed and ill considered? Tony Heller has the side by side comparisons up.
Cruz was remiss in not having a 97% consensus talking point rebuttal along the lines of: there are two papers manufacturing this degree of consensus. One surveyed about 4500 scientists, then whittled the answers down until 75 of the 77 deemed worthy agreed. The other led by an Australian cartoonist surveyed paper abstracts, most not on climate science but presuming the consensus to explore comsequences. That paper has been show gravely methodologally flawed by Tol in peer reviewed critique. Since those two efforts to manufacture 97% have been publicly debunked, what is a reliable source for your figure? Or, are you still relying on the previously debunked stuff?
+1 … thinking ahead
it’s like trying to catch a squirrel
They are their own “squirrel-bait”.
+ 10
and a response to the hottest years ever … that’s one the public will keep hearing
Bubba Cow:
Please see my above post for a draft answer to “the hottest years ever” assertion.
Richard
[Comment deleted. “Jankowski” has been stolen by the identity thief pest. All Jankowski comments saved and deleted from public view. You wasted your time, sockpuppet. -mod]
Ristvan, here is 3 studies and a short analysis of what they tell. Highlight the questions / answers to get a true feel of what the beliefs are.
As Legates et al., 2013 pointed out, Cook defined the consensus as “most warming since 1950 is anthropogenic.” Cook then relied on three different levels of “endorsement” of that consensus and excluded 67% of the abstracts reviewed because they neither endorsed nor rejected the consensus.
Doran and Kendall Zimmerman, 2009
An invitation to participate in the survey was sent to 10,257 Earth scientists. The database was built from Keane and Martinez [2007], which lists all geosciences faculty at reporting academic institutions, along with researchers at state geologic surveys associated with local Universities, and researchers at U.S. federal research facilities (e.g., U.S. Geological Survey, NASA, and NOAA (U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) facilities; U.S. Department of Energy national laboratories; (and so forth). [Note only government scientist, private sector need not apply]
This brief report addresses the two primary questions of the survey
With 3146 individuals completing.
In our survey, the most specialized and knowledgeable respondents (with regard to climate change) are those who listed climate science as their area of expertise and who also have published more than 50% of their recent peer-reviewed papers on the subject of climate change (79 individuals in total). Of these specialists, 96.2% (76 of 79) answered “risen” to question 1 and 97.4% (75 of 77) answered yes to question 2.
the AMS survey Stenhouse et al., 2014.
In this survey, global warming was defined as “the premise that the world’s average temperature has been increasing over the past 150 years, may be increasing more in the future, and that the world’s climate may change as a result.”
Questions –
So answering the questions –
1) most warming since 1950 is anthropogenic?
2) When compared with pre-1800s levels, do you think that mean global temperatures have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively constant?
3) Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?
4) Regardless of the cause, do you think that global warming is happening?
5) How sure are you that global warming (a. is /b. is not) happening?
Answers and questions use generalized words of most, think, significant, contributing and no values or significance is asked for. No where is proof or dates or amounts or data of +/- estimates required and did you see CO2 anywhere?
Do these questions really provide the answer that; stopping man-made, catastrophizing, CO2 control knob, ever increasing (global warming / climate change / disruption / weirding ) [pick 1 or more], which can only be prevented by higher taxes, more regulations and a loss of personal freedom will actually keep us all from floating down the River Styx in a handbasket?
There was no research conducted with that found that 97% of scientists (or just climate scientists) are certain that the 20th C warming would not have happened if not for human emissions of CO2 (let alone that the science is so settled that anyone who strays even slightly from official dogma is a denier of the science).
Great stuff! Scroll to 3:40 minutes into the video and watch Senator Malarkey. He is so overwhelmed emotionally he literally begins to foam at the mouth. Boy oh boy, this whole episode in human folly is going to end badly for our US democrats.
If one has to point to consensus as a reason then they do not know enough science to argue the point. Science is not a democracy so it does not matter one iota how many scientists are on which side of the AGW conjecture. There is scientific rational to support the idea that the current warming up from the Little Ice Age is very similar to the warm up from the Dark Ages Cooling Period that occurred roughly 1300 years ago Clearly the warm up from the Dark Ages Cooling Period was not caused by Man’s use of fossil fuels. Models have been generated that show that global temperatures at least since the Maunder Minimum are correlated with total solar activity and ocean related cycles and not CO2. There is plenty of scientific rational that CO2 has no effect on climate. It is all a matter of science.
news report re; hearing –
http://cnsnews.com/news/article/barbara-hollingsworth/cruz-kerry-was-wildly-extraordinarily-entirely-wrong-about-global
I would be more comfortable if we shut down the “climate change” argument. Either anthropogenic CO2 causes “Global Warming” or it does not. Not one Warmist has, unless I’ve missed it, explained how the increased human CO2 emissions after about 1950 caused the cooling cycle of the 1970’s.
Additional CO2, a Green House Gas, in the atmosphere MAY cause some atmospheric warming which MAY or MAY NOT be discernible/detectable with modern technology. Only a change in climate that can be shown to be directly related to a WARMING of the atmosphere could then possibly, MAYBE, be linked to anthropogenic CO2.
Hurricane and tornado activity has been less in the US over the last 10 years, a reasonably positive thing for some, yet even that can’t be definitively linked to warming since the overall warming has stalled/paused for almost 18 years. Is it reasonable to ask why, since the end of the LIA, we haven’t been having a constantly lowering of this hurricane and tornado activity while we’ve been warming?
Also, It just doesn’t pass the “smell test” to be claiming a record cold spell somewhere, after over 150 years of an increasingly warmer climate, is caused by the warming.
The Japanese IBUKU climate satellite has given irrefutable evidence that almost all of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is caused by temperature induced plant decomposition mainly in equatorial high vegetation areas in the southern hemisphere plus some from ocean de-gassing.. the contribution from human use of fossil fuels is insignificant. read the new best seller UN Climate Liars by Christian Gerondeau now available
sources here – https://books.google.com/books/about/United_nations_climate_liars.html?id=gmsFCwAAQBAJ
and here – http://www.bol.com/nl/p/united-nations-climate-liars/9200000052477736/
It is so difficult in these situations. Prof Curry did well, my preference would be to pick up on the senators use of the D word. As soon as someone uses this word the debate is no longer science, it is religious. My technique is to point out that as long as they (the oppositions) use these words they are in teh world of anti-science. From this point it is possible to counter attack, asking the opposition to explain how they can possibly think the D word is acceptable in scientific debate, asking them if they judge the debate is about believing and disbelieving.
Everyone around will quickly understand the point, and the debate can get back on track.
The Senator lost it, but through bluff he gave a false impression of confidence. You have to hit that confidence!
making some news sources –
http://dailycaller.com/2015/12/09/climate-scientist-turns-the-tables-on-dem-senator-trying-to-discredit-her-video/
I don’t understand what the deal is about Sen Malarkey and the other leftists. They accept their AGW as a matter of faith and simply will not allow any fact or reason that contradicts their faith to penetrate their tiny brains.
There he was, debating a well-published climate scientist on the matter and calling her a ‘Denier’. What’s wrong with listening to what she has to say?
That part is easy.
1) Follow the money, power, and influence. We produce CO2, and therefore can tax it.
2) If cracks appear in the theory, do what all good totalitarian, otherwise useless, humans do – persecute those who disagree using all means available.
3) When (if) it ever blows up, distance yourself from the issue and wait for the media to stop writing about it so that the public will forget.
At this point, we are at the beginnings of 2). I’m not comfortable waiting, either, because the US government can do a heck of a lot of economic damage in very short periods of time with ill-conceived legislation.
I was also disappointed that more of his claims weren’t challenged, but at this point, one could ignore every single skeptic argument or theory and the issue is still hopelessly confused by the sheer amount of variation, revision, adjustments, non-working models, rhetoric, etc., and conclude that even the IPCC and all its adherents have no clue as to what the truth actually is or was.
To add to Justin’s remarks,
Markey is most likely someone who really believes he is more intelligent, better educated and able to make better judgements and decisions than the average person. He probably views his getting elected to office as proof of that (as well as proof that the voters think the same to have elected him). Therefore, once Markey has decided the “correct” course of action, he doesn’t need experts or facts. At least not any which get in the way of what he thinks needs to be done.
When viewed this way Markey’s performance is fully understandable. Contemptable in my opinion, but understandable.
PS – I consider Hilary to be in the same vein. The difference being she’s not an idiot like Markey.
“They accept their AGW as a matter of faith and simply will not allow any fact or reason that contradicts their faith to penetrate their tiny brains.”
———–
Here are three relevant warmist-related quotations from H.L. Mencken:
Ah, Roger, common sense! Mencken was the best. Of course, for me, that comes with a Baltimore bias.
No Sense in the non-science of of CAGW. It is all mass manipulation through fear and guilt stimulation of the amygdala by the Big GovMint and their media minions.
We often hear that weather is NOT climate, and still any warm event is a PROOF of global warming. A cold event is NOT. Sigh. A climate change would require a trend of 30 or more years I guess to prove anything. Right?
I may be in a minority here, but frankly I thought Steyn was as annoying and potshot in his remarks as Markey. I am angry that Judith Curry was not allowed to take Markey through the science as systematically and relentlessly as she was clearly doing. Steyn is a grand-stander, and there are already enough of them thank you. Curry was the only one worth listening to.
‘
Jon Burack:
Curry would not have been able to reply except that Steyn demanded it with his “grandstanding”. Watch the video and you will see this for yourself.
Richard
“I thought Steyn was as annoying and potshot in his remarks as Markey.”
Markey made a habit of interrupting. Only Steyn had the voice volume and brass to steamroller over Markey’s interruptions.
rogerknights on December 11, 2015 at 6:44 am
– – – – – – – – –
rogerknights,
The few moments of somewhat unrestricted give-and-take between Steyn, Curry and Markey was needed to stop the bully senator from bullying the folks testifying.
John
Markey is WRONG ON IRISH!
The Irish have been in Boston since the early 17th century, when they arrived as indentured servants, merchants, sailors or tradesmen. Since Catholicism was prohibited in the Bay Colony, many Irish had to be discreet and hid their identity. But many of the early settlers were actually Presbyterians from Ulster, who began arriving in large numbers in 1718, looking to establish congregations. Many of them were sent to the outer fringes of the Bay Colony, and founded towns like Belfast, Maine, and Londonderry and Derry, New Hampshire, as well as Worcester, Massachusetts.[2]. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Irish_Americans_in_Boston
You’re right. He’s a bad scientist AND a bad historian. Thomas Duee (an ancestor of Admiral Dewey and myself) came here in 1730.
Did I hear right at 3:22? The senator said the waters off Mass. were 21 degrees above normal!!! This cannot be right.
perhaps he meant 21° above zero? Lol
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2971039/Slurpee-waves-New-England-s-temperatures-drop-low-sea-freezes-consistency-frosty-drink-forecasters-predict-going-stay-cold-week.html
Yeah, I think he did. Just another example of the utter disregard people like Malarkey have for facts. (But he’s still not quite as far off as Gore, who once said that the Earth’s core has a temperature of “several million degrees.”)
Honestly, where do you start with those idiots?
A good place to start is to send request letter to the committee chair asking for this to be done weekly.
The evidence is on the side of the skeptic.
For starters the skeptical side can stand a dose of greater exposure.
21 degrees in the Atlantic with moisture from this meeting cold polar air? (Deg F or Deg C?)
These are the temperature anomalies during that period –
http://www.moyhu.blogspot.com.au/p/sst-regional-movies-as-described-here-i.html?WxK=27
I don’t see any evidence for Markey’s assertion but since he is a politician he won’t let facts alter his predjudice
The difference between a scientific mindset and a scientific illiterate mindset is very clear in this video.
The arguments from Sen. Markey is of the type:
“We had a 110 inches of snow in Boston last year – That indicates global warming!”
Yeah – I know I am cherry picking – but Sen. markey didn´t deliver anything else than cherries.
He delivered nothing else than inductive reasoning and logical fallacies to argue for his ideas.
While the arguments from Judith Curry on the other hand is of the type:
The idea that IPCC has a proper explanation for the recorded changes is wrong – it is falsified. See my written testimony and the report from IPCC.
The only thing IPCC says they have an explanation for is the warming from year 1975 to 2000.
Judith Curry could have added that IPCC used circular reasoning to exclude natural variability in the period 1975 to year 2000. Hence – IPCC excluded natural variation by a logical and scientific flaw:
IPCC used circular reasoning to exclude natural variability. IPCC relied on climate models (CMIP5), the hypotheses under test if you will, to exclude natural variability:
“Observed Global Mean Surface Temperature anomalies relative to 1880–1919 in recent years lie well outside the range of Global Mean Surface Temperature anomalies in CMIP5 simulations with natural forcing only, but are consistent with the ensemble of CMIP5 simulations including both anthropogenic and natural forcing … Observed temperature trends over the period 1951–2010, … are, at most observed locations, consistent with the temperature trends in CMIP5 simulations including anthropogenic and natural forcings and inconsistent with the temperature trends in CMIP5 simulations including natural forcings only.”
(Ref.: Working Group I contribution to fifth assessment report by IPCC. TS.4.2.)
If we add to it that the only reason the models show plausible results is that they are panel beated to do so.
The idea that the models are pure physics is wrong – they are parameterized, adjusted and tuned.:
«When initialized with states close to the observations, models ‘drift’ towards their imperfect climatology (an estimate of the mean climate), leading to biases in the simulations that depend on the forecast time. The time scale of the drift in the atmosphere and upper ocean is, in most cases, a few years. Biases can be largely removed using empirical techniques a posteriori. …»
(Ref: Contribution from Working Group I to the fifth assessment report by IPCC; 11.2.3 Prediction Quality; 11.2.3.1 Decadal Prediction Experiments )
And! – we can add to it that even one of the most eager proponent for United Nations climate theory states that it “The refusal to acknowledge that the model simulations are affected by the (partially overestimated) forcing in CMIP5 as well as model responses is a telling omission.”:
(Cherry picking again – I know – but the rest is also served for refreshment)
17
Mark says:
3 Nov 2015 at 6:41 PM
Apparently Roy Spencer’s CMIP5 models vs observations graph has gotten some “uninformed and lame” criticisms from “global warming activist bloggers,” but no criticism from any “actual climate scientists.” Would any actual climate scientists, perhaps one with expertise in climate models, care to comment? http://www.drroyspencer.com/2015/11/models-vs-observations-plotting-a-conspiracy/
[Response: Happy to! The use of single year (1979) or four year (1979-1983) baselines is wrong and misleading. The use of the ensemble means as the sole comparison to the satellite data is wrong and misleading. The absence of a proper acknowledgement of the structural uncertainty in the satellite data is wrong and misleading. The absence of NOAA STAR or the Po-Chedley et al reprocessing of satellite data is… curious. The averaging of the different balloon datasets, again without showing the structural uncertainty is wrong and misleading. The refusal to acknowledge that the model simulations are affected by the (partially overestimated) forcing in CMIP5 as well as model responses is a telling omission. The pretence that they are just interested in trends when they don’t show the actual trend histogram and the uncertainties is also curious, don’t you think? Just a few of the reasons that their figures never seem to make their way into an actual peer-reviewed publication perhaps… – gavin]
– See more at: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/11/unforced-variations-nov-2015/#sthash.eIH9lMBG.dpuf
(Gavin Schmidt is Climatologist, climate modeler and Director of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York).
There are few decent words to describe the lack of scientific integrity by United Nations IPCC in general and Sen. Markey in particular in this video – I can´t find any at the moment.
I eagerly look forward to the excerpt where Lysenkoism was brought up… “Lysenko called, says he regrets other people adopting his methods” is my favorite one line zinger on CAGW. It at least forces them to look up what Lysenkoism is.
I wish everyone, Judith included, would stop accepting the whole “warmest year on record” thing. The temperature records have been tampered with, trends added in, and everyone on our side knows it. So call them out on it. Don’t accept the premise. 2015 is not the “warmest year on record”.
“warmest year” also doesn’t follow a normal distribution, in fact it’s anti-normal. It’s an arcsine distribution. i.e. take the bell curve and turn it upside down is a reasonable approximation. You hardly ever get numbers in the middle.
So those confidence level of 32% thing? It’s still wrong, it’s actually far lower than that.
Reblogged this on pattikellar and commented:
What I know to be true: Science is never Settled. We need to have the debate.
“Hearing: Data or Dogma? Promoting Open Inquiry in the Debate over the Magnitude of Human Impact on Earth’s Climate
US Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation.
Dr. Curry ask to respond to “denier” charge from Sen. Markey, and cites IPCC in her testimony. Steyn spars with Sen. Markey while Markey acts like he’s an authoritarian on the issue.”
For Mr Mark Steyn, and others who are dogged enough to get into these rediculous sparring matches with ideologues on the left … I implore them to ask this simple question!!!!
” We have GISS, Hadcrut, NOAA, UAH, and RSS, .. and now BEST ….. and a plethora of others. Given that there is only ONE REAL GLOBAL TEMPERATURE …. Which of the global temperature metrics published and used by the IPCC is the correct temperature metric for the globe???? ….. if they by some chance give you an answer … which would be wrong … then ask them … “OK … so why are the others wrong??”.
A range is NOT GOOD ENOUGH!!! …. I don’t give a damn if the “Trends” all “look alike” … the measured differences establish significance or not!! … if we don’t know the EXACT temperature metric of the Globe within 0.01C increments ….. we don’t have squat, and can’t say squat!! AND .. if that “golden temp record” can’t be reproduced by other groups using the same data and methods, then you don’t have science. Further, if the “anomaly” measurements between the different so called temperature records differ by more than 0.05 degrees … then they are ALL worthless for making any statement regarding how much the temperature has risen for any given month or year …. because of question 1 … Which one is the correct one??
There’s enough temperature sets to take the mean and std deviation for all the datasets, including past releases. There’s also enough independence to make for some sort of approximation of the std error, and to judge that error to be our lack of understanding of how to deal with measuring global temperatures.
Try it with SST. You’ll be shocked how big the error bars are (+/- 2stddev). Bob TIsdale’s post a while back shows all the leading SST sets on one graph, it’s amazing, it looks to the eyeball to be +/- 0.8degC. That’s larger than the entire estimated historic 135 year trend of 1degC. And since SST dominates global temperature, it’s a probably pretty good estimate of the overall error of the global temperature.
No, the self-estimated std deviations of e.g. BEST doesn’t count as a reasonable estimate of error. If anything, should add up all the self-derived variances of the data sets as yet another independent source of error making the error bars even larger.
I’d pick RSS, UAH, Hadcrut, GISS, BEST just to start. Then possibly add in older version of GISS and HadCrut and the balloon sets. That gives what I call the “human variance” of estimates of global temperature.
Peter
The same goes for sea levels … uncertainty exceeds the supposed trend.
The mastery of the ruse is that CAGW has been sucked into a debate over minutia of recent differences while ignoring the much larger and reliable paleoclimatic patterns as the earth rotates around the sun in an elliptical fashion.
I would just like to reiterate a word in your post ….
Approximation!!!!!!
When we are talking about a change of 0.05C +/- 0.5C ….. you pretty much have a meaningless number, and a range within which you can draw any trend you would like!!!
This is all a bunch of B.S. …. and it is the reason they use models!! They don’t KNOW what the mean global temperature is … let alone what the mean change in temperature is from month to month, year to year, or even decade to decade. I’m not even sure they have a reasonable grasp on temp changed century to century!! About the best they have is the ice core data that estimates on a millenial scale … and even that is not precise.
+ 10
In a response to Mr. Booker, best I can read the name in the video
What a joke. He’s a joke. So if there is a majority consensus of people who believe man is the cause of climate change, it makes it true? Again, what a joke! I would be there screaming at the guy, “Where’s your proof?! Where is your proof?!. Consensus is not proof! You might as well be telling me to believe in some non-existent god because the majority because the majority of people claim it exists!. Get real!”
What bothers me the most is that many people voted for this yo-yo.
They are getting what they voted for!
The broken part of the American political election process is that popular outsiders rarely get to see the light of day. Heavyweights get groomed and endorsed thru their districts .. a certain mass of the vote is obtained and the rest is history. That’s the short story of how the US is left voting for a choice between two weevils.
If they want better candidates they have to be open and provide an opening to accept those not affiliated with one of the juggernauts.
I’m sure other systems such as Canada, Aussieland and England suffer from this.
knutesea,
My own opinion is that the 17th Amendment took far too much power away from the States, and handed it to the respective political Parties headquartered in Washington DC. Prior to the 17th, each state’s legislature elected its own senators.
The state legislatures used to groom their candidates, then horse trade with other state legislatures. Better candidates tended to be chosen, and the citizens of the states had a much bigger say in the selection process.
But now the national Dem and Rep parties select each state’s candidates for senator, and those who win are indebted to their party, not to their state or its citizens. The national parties dole out the money; candidates either play ball, or they’re starved of funds.
So the party bigwigs in Washington DC now call the shots. It doesn’t matter if Sen Feinstein (for example) from California is told by her party to vote directly against the interests of her state’s citizens. She will do it in a heartbeat (and often has), because she is beholden to the national party over her state’s citizens.
The 17th Amendment is one of the worst changes to the Constitution. Back when the Constitution was being formulated, about sixty years of intense discussion preceded its passage. Those decades were spent discussing the best way to create a govenrment, largely in coffee houses and with the belief that they wouldn’t really get the chance to implement their ideas. So the emotion and the self-interest was taken out of the discussion. The proposed rules were thoroughly debated by people who weren’t interrupted by TV, or video games, or texting, or Hollywood, or email, or sports, or all the other distractions we have now.
Furthermore, they were highly educated, and very aware of history. They knew every form of government since ancient Egypt, and the Greek city-states, Macedonia, and Rome. They understood despotic dictatorships, good and bad kings and queens, Parliaments, and the original democracies. They read Plato and all the other Classics. They understood and debated what worked, and what didn’t.
And they knew human nature as well as any KGB colonel. They studied human nature and applied it to the proposed new government. The result was as close to perfect as any government that ever existed.
But then the meddling began. Income became the primary tax base, instead of property. Everyone must use real property, and property can’t be hidden away like income. Also, income eventually required withholding, so the tax bite didn’t come once a year. It came out of every paycheck, and like the frog in water heating up, the populace accepted much higher taxes than they would have otherwise.
The 17th Amendment re-directed power to unelected party operatives, and away from the states’ citizens (we were set up as the United States, but now that’s in name only.) So as the new amendments piled up, they changed what was originally a near-perfect set of rules. Had we remained with the original Constitution and Bill of Rights and added nothing more, the country would be far better off today.
The original intent was that the states would be the laboratories of the republic, trying out various ways to solve problems. The states that did it best would be emulated by other states, and the federal government would just take care of interstate commence, the administration of federal justice, dealing with foreign countries, and a few other national requirements. But most regulations (the EPA comes to mind) would be handled by the individual states. If someone didn’t like the way their state was handling things, they would be free to move to a state more in line with their views.
That has all gone by the wayside. Early in the last century the Rockefellers commissioned a study of how to influence (in other words, how to control) the population. The results of their study concluded that if they controlled the twenty-five largest newspapers in the country (this was before TV, and there was very little radio then) they would be able to get whatever federal legislation passed that they wanted.
They took that advice, and that lesson hasn’t been lost on others. Today only six entities control all of the major media, with the exception of the internet. You can be certain that plans are actively being made to control that information exchange, too. “Net neutrality” is the stalking horse for that takeover.
So unless something completely unexpected happens, I think an EU-style dictatorship is a done deal: rules will be enacted by nameless, faceless, unaccountable bureaucrats, who will implement regulations with the force of law — just like the EPA does now. And most Americans are not aware that the EU President (de Rumpuy) was never elected. He was installed by a shadowy group of bureaucratic bigwigs, and of course they are his constituents, not the citizens. Karl Marx even warned about such rule by bureaucracy. Now it’s happened in the EU.
It’s starting to happen here, too: the President just proposed an extention of the “terrorist watch list” law. Those on the list will not be permitted to fly, or to purchase or possess firearms, or do many other things that are now taken for granted in a free country. Worse, they won’t need to be convicted of anything, but simply put on the watch list. And they won’t be told who put them on the list, or why.
They will find out only when they try to buy a firearm, or ammunition, or try to buy an airline ticket, or any of the other forbidden things denied to those on the watch list. Most disturbing, their names will be put on the watch list by unaccountable, anonymous bureaucrats. They will not be allowed to face their accusers. Citizens might be able to challenge it if they are put on the watch list, but they will need a good lawyer, and be prepared to spend a lot of money to clear their name — and then another politically appointed bureaucrat can simply re-enter their name on the watch list. Can you see the tempatation to put people on an ‘enemies list’? Zombie Nixon must be spinning in his grave with jealousy.
I don’t know the answer. The country has been dumbed down by decades of government .edu factories that produce mass ignorance. Inertia is moving society in the direction the EU has taken, and stopping it or changing course will take a tremendous effort of national will — and plenty of luck. And I’m afraid the worst is coming in the last half of this President’s second term.
Almost without exception, no one on the national scene will stand up for American citizens’ basic right and freedoms. We all know there are major problems. A real leader is necessary, but most of the putative ‘leaders’ just want to tweak the system, instead of forcing it back to its roots. That makes them part of the problem.
Yes, I’m a pessimist about this. Will someone please cheer me up? C’mon, promise me a miracle! Gimme some happy talk. ☹
DB
As always, such a well thought out post. The solution lies within your post …
Much of what you write about in the above paragraph is best found in the local county level of governance. Most of the work of living takes place here as well. Counties manage resources. Those resources are maximized for profit and taxes go to help promote their management and use. The great test of America will be how well and how long those local entities hang onto to their innate power.
One of the unintended consequences of the current economic model is the move away from hard asset driven economic growth and more of a financial and soft dollar asset development. This undermines the provenance of the local resource holder.
The current economic trend is unsustainable. There has never been an economic period of prosperity in the history of man and so the odds are good that a retrenching or restructuring of essential goods and resources will take place. Be is food, energy, manufacturing, distribution each locale has a thing that makes them important in the web of what it takes to be a country that conducts commerce.
My opinion is that you will see a resurgence of state and local power when the current economic phase runs its course. In my mind this ties in closely with CAGW. Of course its a ruse, but its true harm will be felt if the decline in the current economic phase happens as the climate is cooling. Even out of this harm will arise opportunity. As the climate cools, food, energy, mining, hard resources will become far more important in the economy that replaces the fiat one.
Please allow me the freedom to think out loud in this post. It’s better over a beer with coasters as helpful aids but instead we have this forum. Try not to nitpick the above and instead look at it from the point of view of what is more likely to come than not.