Guest essay by Eric Worrall
A new study claims that, by the end of this century, some cities in the Persian Gulf will be uninhabitable by humans, thanks to extreme temperatures up to 170F (76c).
The abstract of the study;
Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability
A human body may be able to adapt to extremes of dry-bulb temperature (commonly referred to as simply temperature) through perspiration and associated evaporative cooling provided that the wet-bulb temperature (a combined measure of temperature and humidity or degree of ‘mugginess’) remains below a threshold of 35 °C. (ref. 1). This threshold defines a limit of survivability for a fit human under well-ventilated outdoor conditions and is lower for most people. We project using an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations that extremes of wet-bulb temperature in the region around the Arabian Gulf are likely to approach and exceed this critical threshold under the business-as-usual scenario of future greenhouse gas concentrations. Our results expose a specific regional hotspot where climate change, in the absence of significant mitigation, is likely to severely impact human habitability in the future.
Read more: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2833.html
Unfortunately the main study is paywalled, but according to the press release in Time Magazine;
Temperatures could reach 170ºF
A number of cities in the Persian Gulf region may be unlivable the end of the century due to global warming if humans do not curb greenhouse gas emissions, according to new research.
The study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change, projects that by the end of the century heat waves in Doha, Abu Dhabi and Bandar Abbas could lead to temperatures at which humans physically cannot survive over a sustained period of time by around 2100. The threshold, estimated around 170ºF, takes into account heat and humidity that prevent humans from exercising natural functions that allow the body to cool.
“Such severe heat waves are expected to occur only once every decade or every few decades,” said study author Elfatih A. B. Eltahir, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. “But when they happen they will be quite lethal.”
http://time.com/4087092/climate-change-heat-wave/
According to Wikipedia, the hottest temperature ever recorded was 57c (134F) in Death Valley, in 1913. 76c (170F) might not seem like much of a leap from 57c, but the cities Doha, Abu Dhabi and Bandar Abbas are all coastal cities which experience substantial Summer rainfall.
Summer rainfall and storms are natural air conditioning. When temperatures soar, evaporation, convection and storm activity remove vast amounts of excess heat from the surface and transport the heat straight up to the edge of space. The heat laden water vapour keeps rising until it condenses – the vapour simply punches straight through the bulk of the world’s greenhouse blanket, soaring into the upper reaches of the troposphere, until it finds a height at which it can dump its vast store of heat.
Anyone who has spent time in the tropics, who has seen the towering thunderheads which form in Summer, has experienced this cooling phenomenon in action. The air is always very perceptibly cooler after a major thunderstorm.
Abhu Dhabi, Bandar Abbas and Doha aren’t going to run out of “coolant” – as coastal cities, any evaporation is immediately replaced from the inexhaustible waters of the world’s oceans.
If the world warms, what is surely more likely than implausibly high maximum heatwave temperatures, is that the temperature would stay about the same, but Summer rainfall would increase.
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If often useful to read the paper in question rather than second-hand news reports. Here is the abstract:
A human body may be able to adapt to extremes of dry-bulb temperature (commonly referred to as simply temperature) through perspiration and associated evaporative cooling provided that the wet-bulb temperature (a combined measure of temperature and humidity or degree of ‘mugginess’) remains below a threshold of 35 °C. (ref. 1). This threshold defines a limit of survivability for a fit human under well-ventilated outdoor conditions and is lower for most people. We project using an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations that extremes of wet-bulb temperature in the region around the Arabian Gulf are likely to approach and exceed this critical threshold under the business-as-usual scenario of future greenhouse gas concentrations. Our results expose a specific regional hotspot where climate change, in the absence of significant mitigation, is likely to severely impact human habitability in the future.
35 C wetbulb is not 76 C drybulb.
’35 C wetbulb is not 76 C drybulb.’
Why not? Couldn’t it be?
Point taken about reading the abstract, and not relying on media coverage.
It is at 6.6% relative humidity being a typical very dry desert like conditions.
Surely you realize that is not even plausible?
“Surely you realize that is not even plausible?”
76C with RH 60% sounds like a pretty decent sauna. Definitely fatal in the long sit, but healthy people can take it for hours with no harm. Unless they take too many beers to accompany them. Completely implausible as weather. Funny that you ask.
Oh, it was 6.6%. Well, even I can stand that. You hardly notice it as long as you don’t work, and do drink enough. Beer is actually better than plain water in keeping you hydrated as long as it is not strong in alcohol content. Also completely implausible as weather in shade behind a stevenson screen.
Hugs;
My questioning of the plausibility was in reference to the Sun’s ability to add that much energy (35C Wet Bulb, 76C dry bulb) to the atmosphere anywhere on planet earth (at sea level). Whether you can survive a short time in such conditions was not what I meant (though I would remind you that 35C Wet Bulb is dangerously close to body temperature, you will eventually die if the wet bulb temperature is equal to or greater than your body temperature no matter what the relative humidity is.)
Hugs:
I might add, to your first mention of the Sauna. You said a 60% relative humidity at a temperature of 76C might be a decent sauna. I seriously doubt anyone could survive such an extreme for more than a minute, and certainly would die if they tried to breath! The Wet bulb temperature of such a combination would be 60C! Far above your body temperature! Water vapor could actually condense in your lungs! The amount of heat contained in such air is easily 5 times greater than the amount of heat contained in 76C air with 6.6% Relative humidity (which in itself is pretty extreme)
Yes you are correct it is impossible, the highest dew points around the world rely on ocean, lakes or rivers to produce the higher energy water vapor.
I estimate you would require a 7.5% increase in solar energy compared to levels now.
29 March 1965
A relative humidity of 4% was recorded at Ringway and on Great Dun Fell. Huddersfield recorded 10% and Aberporth and Tynemouth 11%. These low humidities are likely to be caused by a descent of air from a great height; an example of subsiding air in an anticyclone which was able to reach the surface.
7% relative humidity is actually fairly common in deserts and can be lower.
Below reports a extremely low relative humidity of 1.6% with a dew point of -39.9 C at Altnaharra, Scotland.
“Below reports a extremely low relative humidity of 1.6% with a dew point of -39.9 C at Altnaharra, Scotland.”
Sorry ignore that I forgot it was later discredited and the true reading was around 7/8%.
Matt G
You quoted only a portion of the statement. It is not that 6.6% RH is extreme, it is the combination of 76C at 6.6% RH which is extreme, and only in the sense that such a combination would be extremely dangerous to your health (obvious enough) and also in the sense that such conditions, in earths atmosphere, at sea level pressure, should not be expected until our sun begins its end of life red giant stage. There is not enough hydrocarbons on the planet to cause such an extreme. Its simply impossible.
Steve R,
I see, thanks for clarifying.
Yes you are indeed correct, not possible on this planet until at least 7.5% increase in solar energy. That’s the idea as a ridiculously impossible air temperature is needed to achieve such high wet bulb temperatures without also ridiculously high SST’s or surface water body in the immediate vicinity.
I take it everyone has noticed how these apocalyptic predictions are being pushed further and further into the future. No risk of the embarrassment and well deserved ridicule that James Hansen and pals suffered by making ridiculous predictions that ‘matured’ in their own lifetime!
Correct it perhaps the one way that climate ‘scientists’ have got better , making sure they not be around to answer for their claims being falsified by reality. That is of course where they cannot ‘change reality ‘ to match their claims .
I can see these guys, while staring at a mile high glacier covering Chicago:
“If we don’t get CO2 under control soon, we’re all gonna die!!”
There needs to be a website where these ‘studies’, article, and “report” can be logged along with the authors names and who funded the “studies”, “articles”, and “report”. To allow those to profit from lies (forecasting the future by twisting English to make money) is just wrong on so many levels.
Weapons-grade lies from the climate coneratti delivering a wall of egregious nonsense. Paris beckons! Yawn.
now is the time to invest in Romania-
“Companies form the Persian Gulf are interested in investing in Romania’s maritime and waterway transport, as well as in agriculture and energy projects, Mihai Daraban, president of the Romania’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry told a press release, after the working visit he paid in Qatar and United Arab Emirates during May 22-27. The Romanian economic delegation also included minister of Economy, Commerce and Tourism, Mihai Tudose, Agricultura minister Daniel Constantin”
This is a model study. GIGO…
“If the world warms, what is surely more likely than implausibly high maximum heatwave temperatures, is that the temperature would stay about the same, but Summer rainfall would increase.”
Surface warming in itself it not a useful measure unless you can ascertain whether that surface warming is directly forced, or a negative feedback.
The sensible approach is to note that the Persian Gulf region becomes drier during El Nino and positive Indian Dipole episodes. And with El Nino being directly associated with negative NAO/AO, that implies a reduction on forcing of the climate, such that El Nino episodes increase during solar minima, and near permanent El Nino conditions exist through glacial periods.
While increased forcing of the climate due to increases in GHG forcing are expected to increase positive NAO/AO, which by all rights should increase La Nina and negative I.D.
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch10s10-3-5-6.html
off topic but fun nonetheless –
1936- “North-West Passage After 80 Years New Route for Canadian Grain Ships..
….This year it is believed that the
freeze that will close the pack ice for
the winter will not occur until the
middle of October- Hence it is prob
able that the chartered ships will be
able to make two voyages during the
time. Hundreds of thousands of
bushels of wheat, probably millions,
will arrive in Europe by this cheaper
route in 1936
THE C. B. PEDERSEN,
An Australian Grain Ship.
in the Hudson Bay, and has been
greatly assisted this year by the heat
wave over the United States and parts
of Canada”
Vs
“The hazardous Northwest Passage is open for business. The MV Nunavik left Canada’s Deception Bay on September 19 and rounded Alaska’s Point Barrow on Tuesday – without an icebreaker escort.
Owned by shipping firm Fednav and built in Japan, the Nunavik is the first cargo ship to make the trip unassisted, although technically, she is rated as a Polar Class 4 vessel, and can withstand year-round operations in first-year ice.
Her successful voyage underlines the huge role global warming is playing in international trade”
I wonder what else the climate alarmists will cook up before the Paris UN Climate Change Conference. I can hardly wait. And, they get these papers peer reviewed too and look all official and scientifiky and stuff. I bet there is a backlog for the journals to pump out, and probably a contest or two as to whom publishes the most scary climate “science” paper.
There were rumors a few years back that there was one more batch of ClimateGate e-mails still to be released.
Oh yeah, and in 2100 Las Vegas will have moved to the moon and Lunar Casino vacation packages will be at all time low cost. Think I am wrong? Prove it.
And that is the issue, anyone can make any prediction on anything 100 years out, there is no way to prove or disprove it.
BTW who predicted 30 years ago, that most of the civilized world would be walking around with miniature globally connected computers in our pockets that act as cameras, camcorders, global phones, with instant access to untold terabytes of information across the globe? Oh nobody did, so much for predicting events natural or man-made 100 years out.
Here is a graphic of a prediction made I think in 1955 as to what would happen in 1965. Even in just 10 years, we can be sooooo wrong with our speculations:
http://peterlarson.org/wp-content/uploads/3949834600_0a7487f402_b1.jpg
Darn. I would LOVE to have that saucer!
Yes, and try to get an accurate 10 day forecast! All that work resulting in constant failure. No wonder the modelers are living in cloudy predictions, sucking tit of climate change $$$,$$$,$$$,$$$.99
Matt G
October 27, 2015 at 7:38 am
Yes. “the hottest temperature ever recorded was 57c (134F) in Death Valley, in 1913.”
So reduced to its simplest form, what we can see of the author’s argument would seem to be that since it reached 57c in Death Valley more than 100 years ago, it will reach 76c in the Persian Gulf by 2100.
Are Persian Gulf cities flirting yearly with the all-time record? Maybe that critical information is lurking behind the paywall, but methinks I detect a fight of logic.
Pardon me! The Death Valley reference came from Wikipedia, and was cited by Eric Worrall, but it does not appear to be any part of the authors’ rationale for soaring temperatures in the Persian Gulf.
I just didn’t see any evidence to support the authors’ claims.
No, not even close and many temperatures in the region don’t even reach 50 c on a yearly basis.
The record temperature in Persian Gulf region was based in Sulaibya, Kuwait 53.6 °C. (128.5 °F)
This temperature is still 3 c short of the world record temperature and very difficult to beat any by this amount.
Eric, it would appear that the rainfall statistics for the region are not in line with your comment but there certainly is high humidity in summer to keep the temp in check. Unless of course you are used to absolutely no rain at all over the 4 summer months then 2 cm or so, if lucky, would indeed seem like a flood.
This seems like a study to lure tourists to the area now rather then later. That would be good for the area’s financial reserves which have taken a hit this year. Despite everything going on further north and south it is a fascinating region, so people book your trip.
And with hardly any rain even in winter you can leave the heavy rain gear and umbrella at home.
Based on this study those snow pictures in Saudi Arabia are now, will be, a thing of the past.
Phone 1800 ‘REAL’ STUDIES.
The region will most likely be uninhabitable because of the Iranian nukes. CO2 and weather will be of little consequence.
After WWIII, warm weather will be the least of our worries and then there is the Nuclear Winter problemo.
Mythtakes aboundeth here.
Nukes dont make places uninhabitable and nuclear winter is a load of codswallop.
Judging from the map at the top, the heat wave will also make Pakistan completely evaporate.
If Abu Dahbi hits 170F it is going to be almost impossible to get a spot on the ski slope.
Oh how I remember pedalling around Singapore dockyard with my Wanchai Burberry on the handlebars! Cooling downpour imminent. Eheu fugaces
That’s nothing. I can enjoy 90 ºC for hours. It’s a bliss with a pint of cold beer, some grilled sausages, a good quality shower and a swimming pool.
The image is from Wikipedia, but you get the idea.
You only get a “cooling downpour” if the wind delivers rain bearing systems to your area. As is well understood the largely land-locked Middle East has a prevailing northeasterly wind during its hottest months that keep the areas dry. If the surface air is moist, who cares: if it can’t convect because it is capped by a temperature inversion then you won;t get your rains. So the region can stay dry while still heating up. The only thing that will alter this is if the ITCZ moves north to the region and that will require further AGW/a reversal of the current trend in the Milankovic cycle or 2012 style True Polar Wander.
No worries, Ski Dubai alone has 22,500 square meters of indoor ski area. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ski_Dubai
They took all the snowballs, and put ’em in a snow museum
And they charged all the people a dollar and a half just to see them
No, no, no
Don’t it always seem to go
That you don’t know what you got ’til it’s gone
They paved over a desert and put up a paradise…
No bacon, booze or borads! No wonder they’re frustrated. At least they have a lot of oil money (but not so much as a year ago with the falling spot prices).
Abu Dhabi: Tomorrows forecast calls for a high of 34 C (98 F) with surface winds at 11 kph (8 mph) from the northwest. That’s not bad at all. Deal with it.
These horrifying results were brought to you courtesy of RCP 8.5, the coal-burning slow-tech, high population, “business as usual” scenario. It’s the gift that keeps on giving (to alarmists).
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/extref/nclimate2833-s1.pdf
For an explanation of why RCP 8.5 is a useful “worse case” scenario, but not “business as usual”, see http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/07/21/is-our-certain-fate-a-coal-burning-climate-apocalypse-no/
Back to reality, I checked Wikipedia’s list of world records for this sampling:
Kuwait, 53.6 °C (128.5 °F), Sulaibya, 31 July 2012
Iraq, 53.0 °C (127.4 °F), Ali Air Base, 3 August 2011
Qatar, 50.4 °C (122.7 °F), Doha, 14 July 2010
Saudi Arabia, 52.0 °C (125.6 °F), Jeddah, 23 June 2010
Turkey, 48.8 °C (119.8 °F), Mardin, 14 August 1993
Tunisia, 55.0 °C (131 °F), Kebili, 7 July 1931
Nigeria, 46.4 °C (115.5 °F), Yola, 3 April 2010
South Africa, 50.0 °C (122 °F), Dunbrody, 1918
India, 50.6 °C (123 °F), Alwar, 10 May 1956
Pakistan, 53.5 °C (128.3 °F), Mohenjo-daro, 26 May 2010
Bangladesh, 45.1 °C (113.2 °F), Rajshahi, 30 April 1972
Myanmar, 47.0 °C (116.6 °F), Myinmu, 12 May 2010
Australia, 50.7 °C (123.3 °F), Oodnadatta, 2 January 1960
Philippines, 42.2 °C (107.96 °F), Tuguegarao, 12 April 1912
Singapore, 36.0 °C (96.8 °F), Singapore, 26 March 1998
China, 50.3 °C (122.5 °F), Xinjiang, 24 July 2015
Japan, 41.0 °C (105.8 °F), Shimanto, 12 August 2013
Bolivia, 46.7 °C (116.1 °F), Villamontes, 29 October 2010
Canada, 45.0 °C (113 °F), Saskatchewan, 5 July 1937
Mexico, 52 °C (125.6 °F), San Luis Río Colorado, 6 July 1966
United States, 56.7 °C (134 °F), Death Valley, 10 July 1913
Germany, 40.3 °C (104.5 °F), Bavaria, Summer 2015
France, 44.1 °C (111.4 °F), Conqueyrac, 12 August 2003
Russia, 42.3 °C (108.1 °F), Belogorsk, 12 July 2010
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_weather_records
Very controversial that this record below was left to stand, when the previous Libya world record of 58 c in 1922 was recently removed.
Tunisia, 55.0 °C (131 °F), Kebili, 7 July 1931
The conditions and instruments around that period were hardly no different. If this one was to stand than the Libya one should also stand. The temperature not matching other places has not stopped other dubious records from counting.
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00093.1
There is also doubt in a few minds about that 1913 Death Valley 56.7 °C (134 °F) record:
Christopher C. Burt, the weather historian writing for Weather Underground who shepherded the Libya reading’s 2012 disqualification, believes that the 1913 Death Valley reading is “a myth”, and is at least four or five degrees Fahrenheit too high, as do other weather historians Dr. Arnold Court and William Taylor Reid. Burt proposes that the highest reliably recorded temperature on Earth is still at Death Valley, but is instead 53.9 °C (129 °F) recorded five times: 20 July 1960, 18 July 1998, 20 July 2005, 7 July 2007, and 30 June 2013.
–ibid
Is there a suggestion not to wear black robes? That would help.
Very misleading headline
Zeke Hausfather has already posted on the actual words.
If the human body core temperature reaches approx. 40°C that person dies. If the humidity is 100% then evaporation from a body is matched by condensation – no heat is lost by the evaporation.
at 100% humidity and 40°C a human dies.
As no-one seems to have read Zeke’s words I will repeat what the article says:
…used high-resolution climate models to look at a measurement known as the “wet-bulb temperature,” which takes into account both heat and humidity. Researchers chose to look at the wet-bulb temperature because of its direct impact on human health — for humans to maintain a healthy inner body temperature, the wet-bulb temperature cannot exceed 35°C (95°F). If the wet-bulb temperature does exceed that threshold, humans have a difficult time getting rid of metabolic heat, leading to hyperthermia and potentially death.
A wet bulb is exactly what it say a thermometer bulb surrounded by a wet cloth. Water evaporates from the cloth cooling the bulb which then records a lower temperature.
At 100% humidity the loss of heat via evaporation is zero. and dry and wet bulbs will read the same. If all the surrounding atmosphere is at the same humidity and wet and dry temperature then no matter how you blast air past your body – it will NOT cool!
your body is a source of heat. You have to be able to transfer this heat away to survive. Presumably their 35°C (less than 40°C) allows for the fact that the core temperature will be hotter than the skin temperature (there will be a thermal resistance between core and skin)
many died in India during a heat wave with high humidity for this reason.
It is not really misleading because you require nearly 4 times less energy to maintain a very dry atmosphere compared with torrential rain to maintain the same temperature. A very dry region where thunderstorms suddenly appear reduce very dry air temperatures between 40-50 c significantly lower than 35 c bulb temperatures. In the same scenario the very dry desert area needs to be 76 c with torrential rain to increase the humidity to 100% and maintain a 35 c bulb temperature.
How long would it take? Normal body temperature is about 37 °C. At 100% related humidity there is about 50 grams of water in a kilogram of air. I tend to run my bath slightly moister and hotter than that.
http://www.healthhype.com/6-health-risks-and-dangers-of-hot-baths.html
These represent the highest wet bulb temperatures reached across the planet. The example above with 76 c very dry air to 35 c wet bulb though changes regarding proximity to oceans and high SST’s.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_D9-JNTtRKgs/S-LSq2apPUI/AAAAAAAAAv0/PsL0-FmE3Cs/s1600/Picture+929.png
The most humid cities on earth are generally located closer to the equator, near coastal regions. Cities in South and Southeast Asia are among the most humid. Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta, and Singapore have very high humidity all year round because of their proximity to water bodies and the equator and often overcast weather. Some places experience extreme humidity during their rainy seasons combined with warmth giving the feel of a lukewarm sauna, such as Kolkata, Chennai and Cochin in India, and Lahore in Pakistan. Sukkur city located on the Indus River in Pakistan has some of the highest and most uncomfortable dew point in the country frequently exceeding 30 °C (86 °F) in the Monsoon season.[16] High temperatures couple up with bizarre dew point to create heat index in excess of 65 °C (149 °F)
[…]
Appleton, Wisconsin registered a dew point of 90 degrees F on 13 July 1995 with an air temperature of 104 degrees resulting in a heat index of 149 degrees; this record has apparently held and in fact the highest dew point measured in the country bounced amongst or was tied by locations in Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Iowa during the preceding 70 years or more with locations in northern Illinois also coming close. Dew points of 95 degrees are found on the Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia at certain times.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humidity
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dew_point
“Just recently the Minnesota State Climate Office issued a statement declaring the 88° dew point temperature measured at Moorhead (on the Red River across from Fargo, North Dakota) between 7pm and 9pm on July 19, 2011 as a new all-time state record for the highest such reading ever observed.” – 2011
Not seen a dew point with official stations above 88 f in USA. The 88° Dew Point Measured at Moorhead, Minnesota on July 19, 2011 is the current record. The wet bulb hardly any different than the dew point and in this was 88 f.
The hottest sea surface temperatures ever recorded anywhere in the world have been 98° in the Persian Gulf and 96° in the Red Sea. Hence, dew point’s up to 95 f are only applicable to extremely small regions here due to very high SST’s not representative anywhere else in the World. Even more restricted than mentioned because only next to the coasts and are not seen on map above due to scale being too small to see.