From UAH via press release:
Global climate trend since Nov. 16, 1978: +0.11 C per decade
September temperatures (preliminary)
Global composite temp.: +0.25 C (about 0.45 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for September.
Northern Hemisphere: +0.34 C (about 0.61 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for September.
Southern Hemisphere: +0.17 C (about 0.31 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for September.
Tropics: +0.55 C (about 0.99 degrees Fahrenheit) above 30-year average for September.
August temperatures (revised):
Global Composite: +0.28 C above 30-year average
Northern Hemisphere: +0.25 C above 30-year average
Southern Hemisphere: +0.30 C below 30-year average
Tropics: +0.52 C above 30-year average
(All temperature anomalies are based on a 30-year average (1981-2010) for the month reported.)
Notes on data released Oct. 7, 2015:
An El Niño Pacific Ocean warming event continues to heat the tropics, although there is significant heat that has yet to be transferred from the ocean into the atmosphere, said Dr. John Christy, director of the Earth System Science Center at The University of Alabama in Huntsville. Temperatures in the tropics averaged 0.55 C (about 0.99° F) warmer than seasonal norms in September, a new record for tropical Septembers surpassing the previous record of +0.52 C set in September 2009.
Globally it was the fifth warmest September in the satellite record. It was also the fourth warmest September in the Northern Hemisphere.
While it is too early in the year to make any meaningful forecast or prediction about where 2015 will finish in the rankings of warm and cold years, it is reasonable to expect the heat from the El Niño to continue to spread across more of the globe during the next three months.
Through the first nine months of the year, comparing January through September throughout the satellite temperature record starting in 1979, the first nine months of 2015 ranked fourth overall, with an average global temperature that was 0.22 C warmer than seasonal norms. The first nine months of 1998 were warmest at 0.56 C, followed by 2010 at 0.41 C and 2002 at 0.24 C warmer than seasonal norms.
Compared to seasonal norms, the warmest average temperature anomaly on Earth in September was over the Black Sea, near the city of Odessa. The September temperature there averaged 3.57 C (about 6.43 degrees F) warmer than seasonal norms. Compared to seasonal norms, the coolest average temperature on Earth in September was in East Antarctica, southwest of McMurdo Station along the Transarctic Mountains, where the average September 2015 temperature was 3.95 C (about 7.11 degrees F) cooler than normal.
The complete version 6 beta lower troposphere dataset is available here:
http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/v6.0beta/tlt/uahncdc_lt_6.0beta3
Archived color maps of local temperature anomalies are available on-line at:
As part of an ongoing joint project between UAHuntsville, NOAA and NASA, Christy and Dr. Roy Spencer, an ESSC principal scientist, use data gathered by advanced microwave sounding units on NOAA and NASA satellites to get accurate temperature readings for almost all regions of the Earth. This includes remote desert, ocean and rain forest areas where reliable climate data are not otherwise available.
The satellite-based instruments measure the temperature of the atmosphere from the surface up to an altitude of about eight kilometers above sea level. Once the monthly temperature data is collected and processed, it is placed in a “public” computer file for immediate access by atmospheric scientists in the U.S. and abroad.
Neither Christy nor Spencer receives any research support or funding from oil, coal or industrial companies or organizations, or from any private or special interest groups. All of their climate research funding comes from federal and state grants or contracts.
— 30 —
Note: shortly after publication, the top line citing a UAH press release was added.
Discover more from Watts Up With That?
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
Not surprising to say the least that tropics are the warmest for a while with a record September. The tropics is really feeling the energy release now and it won’t be long now until the continents show a sudden rise too. My prediction for especially the satellite and balloons data sets are for during November/December 2015 to show a big increase in temperatures. Although this will be reduced somewhat with the likely recent spike in SAOT. (not updated yet)
“Hottest September Evah”
Oh well.
*sigh*
Pass the tanning butter!
A wonderful above average daily maximum in the tropical WA coastal town of Broome for September, was offset by a well below average minimum nighttime temperature. BoM’s forecast guesses were often 3 or more degrees out. So far their forecasting hasn’t got any better for October.
Warmer often gives us a better wet season. Bring it on!
I need my green or red coloured glasses to see the hockey stick shaped trend and maybe I am just dense, but where is the correlation with CO2 levels?
I see it differently. While there isn’t much of a record to show this, the shape of that graph certainly looks like a long sinewave. It suggests to me the amount of heat that is pumping out of the oceans (after it got in there in the first place) is slowly dying out, like embers after a hot fire. And with all those clouds due to evaporation spread across the equatorial belt, the Sun is hardly able to put back in what is being taken out.
Enjoy the warmth while it slowly dies out.
i agree pamela ,and the nice thing is we will not have to wait decades to find out one way or another.
Wouldn’t it be more useful to report anomaly relative to trend rather than against a 30 year average?
I’d like to keep seeing the “recent warming” (after adjustments, even) compared to the Medieval, Roman, and Minoan warming periods, along with, of course, the Holocene Optimum.
Aw, heck. Let’s graph up some Eemian temperatures in there too. Along with, what is on average for the NH, the deep glaciations. Yes, please, and thankyou.
> Along with, what is on average for the NH, the deep glaciations.
Buffalo, New York daily ground temperature readings of -43° for 45 thousand years running would be pretty boring.
myNym,
Here you go. The Holocene:
http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/lappi/gisp-last-10000-new.png
And the Eemian was warmer than the Holocene:
http://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/files/2013/01/vostok_back_to_eemian.jpg
Boring would be warm. Cold, like that, that’s scary.
Lol. thanks db.
This puts it all in perspective:
http://notrickszone.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/Hos_8.png
[click in charts to embiggen]
Awesome. Love it. And, when was CO2 at 8000ppm again? When was the Arctic Ocean a swamp? Why didn’t we have “glow-bull runaway warming” then? 🙂
CO2 at 8,000 ppm:
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_cHhMa7ARDDg/SoxiDu0taDI/AAAAAAAABFI/Z2yuZCWtzvc/s1600/Geocarb%2BIII-Mine-03.jpg
[click in chart to embiggen]
The biosphere is starved of CO2. A doubling would be entirely beneficial.
Thank you dbstealy.
To answer my other question, “When was the Arctic Ocean a swamp?”, I found this:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/08/100824132417.htm
Quotes from link:
“The team concluded the average temperatures of the warmest month on Ellesmere Island during the early Eocene were from 66 to 68 degrees Fahrenheit (19-20 degrees C), while the coldest month temperature was about 32 to 38 degrees F (0-3.5 degrees C). “Our data gathered from multiple organisms indicate it probably did not get below freezing on Ellesmere Island during the early Eocene, which has some interesting implications,” she said.”
And:
“During the Eocene, Ellesmere Island — which is adjacent to Greenland — probably was similar to swampy cypress forests in the southeastern United States today, said Eberle. Eocene fossil evidence collected there in recent decades by various teams indicate the lush landscape hosted giant tortoises, aquatic turtles, large snakes, alligators, flying lemurs, tapirs, and hippo-like and rhino-like mammals.”
John Christy says “An El Nino Pacific warming event continues to heat the tropics” .NOAA says in their explanation of the El Nino phenomenon “In normal El Nino conditions the trade winds blow towards the West across the tropical Pacific. These winds pile up warmer surface water in the West Pacific,so that the sea surface is about half a meter higher at Indonesia than at Ecuador.During El Nino,trade winds relax in the central and west Pacific” and my understanding is that as a consequence the warm water drifts back from Indonesia towards Ecuador(Presumably eliminating the half meter level difference). I have never found an explanation for why the trade winds weaken.I suspect no-one knows. There is then more warm water near Ecuador and less warm water near Indonesia.So, I hesitate to question John Christy but surely it is not correct to say that the El Nino situation “heats the tropics”.There is merely more warm water near Ecuador and less near Indonesia.I dont see how this is supposed to cause a rise in the average world temperature,as suggested by some. If one stood on a beach in Ecuador with a thermometer it might record a rise in temperature at that site,to the detriment of the anchovies , but the heat balance of the planet as a whole is surely unaffected.Maybe the wider distribution of the already present heat in the Pacific ocean permits more heat to escape into the atmosphere where it may be distributed differently to effect weather changes,but even so, the total heat balance of the planet is unchanged.The heat has merely shifted its location. If I am wrong can someone explain simply why.
Lack and change of direction of tropical winds during El Nino suppresses upwelling in the east Pacific and reduces its usual cooling effect. The lowering temps of the west Pacific isn’t as much as the warming of the east Pacific. So on the whole, the tropical Pacific warms up.
That is an easy one to reply to. Heat that is held in a column of water, when then spread out, is released into the atmosphere across the Pacific. Otherwise only the top of the column, when held to the Western Pacific, heats the air.
Reminds me of good coffee cups versus bad ones. The huge soup bowls laughably called coffee mugs these days, release heat so fast it is impossible to drink an entire cup of hot coffee. But reduce the opening to a diameter smaller than the body of the cup, and you can enjoy hot coffee much longer.
This rare 3-yr El Nino event has turned out to be one of the largest and longest since the 1960s.
The last time a strong 3-yr El Nino event occurred, there was very long and cool La Nina that followed.
I expect the UAH temps to peak early 2016 and then fall precipitously thereafter, with Nino 3.4 hitting -2.0 by early 2017:
http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/teleconnections/eln-5-pg.gif
By early 2017, UAH/RSS will show NO global warming trend for 20+ years, which will make for interesting news headlines and generate much consternation among CAGW alarmists.
Moreover, the PDO entered its 30-yr cool cycle in 2008, the AMO 30-yr cool cycles starts around 2020, the current solar cycle is the weakest since 1906 and the next solar cycle is expected to be the weakest since the Maunder Minimum started in 1645….
To put a cherry on top, Arctic Ice Extents have been recovering since 2007, and will recover even faster the closer the AMO 30-yr cool cycle approaches…
The next 5 years should be VERY interesting as CAGW alarmists try to explain why their projections are 3+ SDs off from reality… Even the most aggressively ignorant person won’t fall for the old “Global Warming is causing Global Cooling” meme…
With the RSS September anomaly of 0.382, the length of the pause on RSS remains at 18 years and 8 months. However instead of going from January 1997 to August 2015, it now goes from February 1997 to September 2015.
With an average of 0.320, 2015 is tied for 4th place so far for RSS.
UAH is in third place after 9 months with an average of 0.226. It would take a huge spike over the next three months to reach second place however. The average needs to be 0.698 so the September value of 0.25 really needs to go up fast which I think is extremely unlikely.
Ricrard Verney
” Climate is not global” I agree with you and the sooner we start showing regional or continental temperatures separate , the sooner we will understand climate better None of us can relate to global temperatures or hemispheric temperatures but we can relate to regional and continental temperatures to some degree
The trend of annual global land temperature anomalies since 2005 or the last 10 years has been flat or in a pause, but regionally there is cooling in Asia and North America and warming in Europe .All other regions are flat with. In summary here is what is happening regionally.
Global -0.02 C/decade (flat)
Northern Hemisphere -0.05 C/decade (flat)
Southern Hemisphere +0.06 C/decade (flat)
North America -0.41 C/decade (cooling)
Asia -0.31 C/decade (cooling)
Europe + 0.39 C /decade (warming)
Africa + 0.08 C/decade (flat)
Oceania + 0.07 C /decade (flat)
As can be seen from the attached graphs generated from NOAA CLIMATE AT A GLANCE web page data, Global and Northern Hemisphere annual or year –to-date land temperature anomalies for the last 10 years or since 2005 all show a flat trend ( no warming) North America and United States land areas show a cooling trend already for 18 years or since 1997 and 1998 ( no warming)
Asia shows a cooling trend since 2005 or the last 10 years (no warming)
Only Europe land area shows a warming trend mostly due to 2014 only. Yet even for Europe, the temperatures were flat for 9 of 10 years prior to 2014(2005-2013).
So it will be interesting to see what spin Paris will put on this
If we look back at climate history not on a “global” basis but on a continental basis we see a different picture. South America, Africa and Oceania show a slow gradual rise as they have done for a century. Southern Hemisphere thus shows a slow gradual rise also and the last global temperature trough that happened between 1940-1980 is almost non apparent in its record. The same is happening currently.
The continents with more significant temperature fluctuations ( both warm and cool ) are North America and Asia and to a lesser degree Europe where the temperatures have s been much more constant than North America.
Added to this is the regular fluctuations( currently in warm mode) of the Ocean’s SST most notably North Atlantic and North and Central Pacific and the temperature pattern along the north east coast of the Pacific ocean (PDO)
So what we have today is not global warming but a steady slight warming of the southern continents , cooling of the major parts of the Northern Continents and extra warming of the North Pacific due to a temporary blob and the temporary presence of an El Nino in the central Pacific
This not global warming induced by man at all but a mixture of warm and cold regions which just happen to net out warmer than normal due to the temporary events in the Pacific
This also tells me that the most probable cooling will show up in North America and Asia first and this is exactly what has already started .
Interesting. You might think about writing that up with graphs and post it here.
From what I’ve noticed comparing 98 to this event is that this event is much more broken up and spotty in its distribution. Combine that with Rossby wave jet that spanning around the globe in shift cycle. And I call for temps to be spread evenly and without measurable notice. Moisture much the same.. broken and spotty. Or less concentrated event across the boards than 98. Of course its gonna get cooler faster for those same reasons.
Pamela Gray
Thanks for your comments.
I think I do enough blogging on this topic. Perhaps others can take the idea and develop it further., but I will add these comments .
All the data can be found on Bob Tisdale, NOAA Climate at A Glance and Berkeley Earth web pages. I have always had a problem with using the meaningless term “global temperature” because it can cover up details that are vital and should be discussed . We should also use regional or continental temperatures and the data should not be derived at by one data collection agency. According to NOAA, we have today where all land areas taken together show no warming for at least the last 10 years or since 2005 . Some land areas like North America show no warming since 1998 or 18 years Even within this total land area , North America and Asia which together represent about half of all land areas globally ( or 46%) are actually cooling the last 10 years . Another 48 % of the land areas including Africa, South America and Oceania are basically flat with minor change only. Only Europe which represents just 6 % of all land area shows warming and mostly due to 2014. From 2005 to 2013 it was basically flat. Winters are cooling globally.
Added to this is the regular fluctuations( currently in warm mode) of the Ocean’s SST most notably North Atlantic and North and Central Pacific plus the temperature pattern along the north east coast of the Pacific ocean (PDO).
There is also extra warming of the North Pacific due to a temporary blob and the temporary presence of an El Nino in the central Pacific. As per Bob Tisdale’s monthly reporting of global sea surface temperatures global sea surface temperatures have risen at 0.09 C/decade since 1981 . This is only up slightly from the 0.08 C/decade or 0.8 C rise in overall global temperatures per century
So where is this imminent threat that warrants an overhaul of all global energy strategy costing the world trillions of extra dollars with no benefits nor does it solve any global warming threat because it does not exist? Instead of wasting money to fight a non existing global warming threat we should help the refugees fleeing from political threats , not global warming threats.