Better late than never: Danny is first Atlantic hurricane of the season

NASA’s Terra satellite passed over the Atlantic Ocean as Tropical Storm Danny intensified into the season’s first hurricane.

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, or MODIS, instrument that flies aboard NASA’s Terra satellite flew over Danny at 10:15 a.m. EDT (14:15 UTC) on Aug. 20, just as it was classified as the 2015 Atlantic Ocean Season’s first hurricane. The MODIS image showed that Danny is a small tropical cyclone.

The MODIS instrument aboard NASA's Terra satellite flew over Danny at 10:15 a.m. EDT (14:15 UTC) on Aug 20, 2015, just as it was classified as the 2015 Atlantic Ocean Season's first hurricane. Credits: NASA Goddard's MODIS Rapid Response Team

The MODIS instrument aboard NASA’s Terra satellite flew over Danny at 10:15 a.m. EDT (14:15 UTC) on Aug 20, 2015, just as it was classified as the 2015 Atlantic Ocean Season’s first hurricane. Credits: NASA Goddard’s MODIS Rapid Response Team

Hurricane-force winds only extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km).

At 11 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane Danny was located by satellite near latitude 12.5 North and longitude 44.8 West. That puts the center of Danny about 1,090 miles (1,755 km) east of the Windward Islands. The National Hurricane Center noted that Danny is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 kph) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Danny’s maximum sustained winds had increased to near 75 mph (120 kph) with higher gusts.

The NHC forecast noted that some additional strengthening is forecast during the next two days.

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This comes on the heels of NOAA recently announcing an increased likelihood of a lower than normal hurricane season.

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46 thoughts on “Better late than never: Danny is first Atlantic hurricane of the season

  1. From those folks at Accuweather …
    “With expected wind shear and diminishing winds …. Danny may be just what the doctor ordered for drought-stricken areas from the Leewards to Puerto Rico and Hispaniola with rounds of drenching rain,”
    So the doom and gloom just won’t materialize for Hansen and all his little plaintiffs.

    • It’s Godzilla and arose from the deep ocean after eating all the missing heat!
      It’s Godzilla, I tell you, and not just a salamander with a big shadow!

  2. Sorry I can’t let this one go after reading something similar in one of our (Australia) online newspapers. Hurricane Danny…visible even from space!

  3. If I remember the chain of events correctly, east coast surfers hate strong El Ninos. They blow the tops of developing Atlantic disturbances. Too much sheer, no storms, no big summer surf.

  4. Read the NHC advisory and comments. Wind speeds were not measured, they were estimated by models.
    There is one NDBC buoy about 60 miles away from the center that is showing 17 knot sustained winds.
    The NHC has a history of claiming wind speeds from radar and aircraft estimates that are well in excess of reality. They claim that aircraft will be sent friday afternoon.
    Danny is not a hurricane.

    • I have noticed over the last several years that not only do they track
      an awful lot of systems with 25-30 mph winds, but there are always
      a number of systems that just happen to go above the 34 mph limit
      and become tropical storms and many others that go above 74 mph
      and become hurricanes. Now some of these do get stronger and
      would have been hurricanes any way, but it appears there may be
      a rush to move things into the next higher category. Of course, that
      could be my own observer bias but it is something I have noticed
      a lot, especially the last 3-4 years when there have been fewer
      hurricanes in the Atlantic. Many of these would never have been
      noticed or recorded in the pre-satellite era or even 20 years ago.
      One could argue that they just want to alert people to potential
      dangers by telling people as soon as there is even a chance
      that they are in the next stronger category but then they get hyped
      and end up in the statistics, perhaps wrongly.

  5. ¿Does this mean the IPCC’s highly exaggerated theory of AGW from burning fossil fuels causes “an increased likelihood of a lower than normal hurricane season”?
    John

    • I’m not sure whether you are playing or just not up with the play. This year it is expected that the Atlantic season will be quiet and the Pacific the opposite. That is exactly what we are seeing. Already we are past the annual average for cat 5 storms and more are expected. It is what you expect in an El Nino year… and in a warming world.

      • C’mon Simon, yes for an El Nino year. But a big NO on the warming world! That theory holds no water. Why have we not seen a single major (Cat 3+) hurricane since Wilma (2005)? We’d expect Cat 6’s all over the place already, if we were in a warming world. The warmist theory is that a warming world will produce many more hurricanes. Especially in the Atlantic. So, I’d like to see where you get the warming world causing hurricanes from.

      • David Q
        Sorry, but you are, well …wrong. Read more. The predictions are more Cat 5 hurricanes… not more hurricanes. Hurricanes need water 26 degrees C or better to form. As the water warms… and it is… we will see a greater surface area on the planet able to spawn them. This El Nino year allows us to peer into the future.

      • But Simon you have to be drinking cool aide to believe we are living in a “warming world” If you combine the loss of most rural reporting stations, the adjustments to make today warmer than yesterday, and the satalite records you have…. A cooling world.

    • John Whitman on August 20, 2015 at 3:26 pm
      ¿Does this mean the IPCC’s highly exaggerated theory of AGW from burning fossil fuels causes “an increased likelihood of a lower than normal hurricane season”?
      John

      While also the following would be worth thinking about in conjunction with my above comment.
      ¿Does this mean the IPCC’s highly exaggerated theory of AGW from burning fossil fuels causes a likelihood of a historically unremarkable set of hurricane seasons over the last 25 years?
      John

      • Simon that is not quite correct. El Nino dampens the hurricane season in the Atlantic, and enhances it in Eastern Pacific. The average per http://ww2010.atmos.uiuc.edu/(Gh)/guides/mtr/hurr/enso.rxml, indicates that El Nino years see a bit less Intense Hurricanes overall, not more.
        There are many other factors then water temp that determines the power of hurricanes. Wind sheer, and humidity of the air for example.
        I give you that warmer waters produce more and more intense hurricanes. But there is little indication that what we see are not much more than natural variability.

  6. I was stationed at Roosevelt Roads, Puerto Rico when Georges hit in the end of September, ’98. Lived in Quebrada, Fajardo… Storm marked on top of us… …coconuts, avocados, mangoes, breadfruit, bananas… Everything blown down. A neighbor’s shed took out my acerola cherry bush. Trees were thrashed, the Coqui frog population the inverse of decimated (maybe one-in-ten survived; quiet nights in Puerto Rico…! Unnerving). Bee stings were up for weeks, because bees, yellow jackets & wasps hunting flowers found trashcans with empty soda cans instead, out of desperation. I was without power (eell, on a generator ) & water (a 10,000 L cistern on the roof… Landlord’s nephew was with the Bomberos—Fire Dept for Extranjeros—in Fajardo, who would come out with a pump truck to fill me up every two weeks) for over 40 days. Georges was very destructive due to it’s path, but not a patch on that monster, Floyd, which went roaring past us to the north the following year. Every storm in ’98 -’00 a Cape Verde storm…
    No tropical cyclone can be treated dismissively, but Danny? We’re approaching the peak of the season. I wasn’t even paying attention: Danny is a mid-Atlantic storm, not a Cape Verde, right? I’ll be surprised if we even see a named Cape Verde cyclone this year…
    And if not, I believe Joe Bastardi called it first. Pity anyone who bet against his long-term forecast for this season…

  7. Danny HAS to be a hurricane! If it isn’t the theory that ‘all it takes to make tropical hurricanes is a lot of warm ocean water’ is completely debunked (I heard that one explained on the telly the other day). I’m betting on the wind shear from El ‘Nino to knock it apart though.

  8. The Weather Channel cannot do enough to over emphasize this storm while overlooking the flooding and severe weather in Houston Thursday morning. Idiots.

    • Houston is old news. The drive-by media have moved on to the next Alarmist crisis. They are also not reporting a number of coolest highs on record that have recently occurred as far south as Oklahoma.

      • They also are ignoring the food crisis in Papua, New Guinea, caused by rare days of cold and frost. The sweet potato crop is dead across a large part of the country. It is their staple crop. The last time this happened was in 1998 due to the large El Nino of that time.

  9. Just remember Andrew was the “A” storm of 1992 and what it did to South Miami.
    One off events like hurricanes and typhoons prove **nada** about Climate Change… plus or minus AGW.

    • Since Pope Gore basically tied the severity of hurricanes to the warming of oceans, and the severity of hurricanes seasons peaked in 2005 and have diminished ever since along with a stable global temperature, it appears to me that they are well linked and tell a very compelling tail. One I might add that his Holiness Gore might not want to hear.
      He invested all that money in Green Tech and other AGW/CC money pits and had to endure has had to endure an 18 tear pause in returns, lol.
      But, what is said about a man’s intelligence that bets on the weather, LMAO

  10. That is a pretty weak storm, it may still be dangerous to anything in it’s way, but to put it into perspective compare it to the 2 Typhoons in the Pacific using NuSchool’s Earth.
    It has 75kph winds to their 160kph winds

  11. The poor leftist Eco-wackos are so depressed Danny is deteriorating into a tropical depression; hence the name, tropical depression…
    Oh, Danny boy, the pipes the pipes are playing…
    BTW, could someone please explain to me that if Danny became a CAT3+ hurricane, it would have been irrefutable evidence of CAGW, but if it dissipates from a CAT1 to a tropical depression, then it’s not because of CAGW?
    I’m confused…

  12. No-one seems to have commented on the fact that Danny supposedly became a _major_ hurricane (Saffir-Simpson Category 3) for a couple of minutes. Here are some quotes from the NHC discussion #14 at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2015/al04/al042015.discus.014.shtml? .
    A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigated Danny around
    1600-1730 UTC. It found winds as high as 111 kt at the 12,000 ft
    flight level and surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency
    Microwave Radiometer as high as 104 kt. It also reported a
    dropsonde central pressure of 974 mb. Based on these data, Danny
    reached a 100-kt intensity at that time.

    That being said, this intensity could be generous.

    Danny has likely peaked in intensity based on the signs of shear in
    the cloud pattern, stronger upper-level winds present west of the
    cyclone, and abundant nearby dry air.
    Rich.

  13. Danny entered an area of wind shear and declared a tropical depression at 0800. There is a chance it can get itself back together after the shear, but there may be dry air ahead too.

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