Claim: British Isles getting "stormier"

From the “30 years are part of a cycle” department:

cyclonebritishisles

Experts express concern over cyclone trends in the British-Irish Isles

By studying climate data in the British-Irish Isles over a 142-year period, researchers have confirmed the important role of cyclones. Seasonal precipitation totals were strongly related to cyclone frequency, especially during summer.

The researchers found that relative to the 1961-1990 period, summers have become much wetter and more cyclonic. The move towards wetter summers in recent years is more of a re-establishment of conditions typical of the earlier half of the 20th Century rather than being unusual in the long term.

Recent years have seen three of the stormiest seasons on record, however. The summer of 2012 was the “stormiest” since at least 1871.

“Given concern over increased British-Irish Isles storminess as the climate warms, there is a need to understand the extent to which these changes may already be underway,” said Dr. Tom Matthews, lead author of the International Journal of Climatology study. “By providing a 142-year regional cyclone climatology, this study allows recent extreme seasonal storminess to be placed in context. Such a long-term perspective is needed to explore variability in the regional storm climate and to diagnose and understand emerging changes.”

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Alan Robertson
July 6, 2015 7:06 pm

Bumbershoot!

Reply to  Alan Robertson
July 6, 2015 7:15 pm

Blathershite!

asybot
Reply to  Mark and two Cats
July 6, 2015 10:48 pm

BULLL shiese

earwig42
July 6, 2015 7:09 pm

Dolts.

Olaf Koenders
Reply to  earwig42
July 7, 2015 1:24 am

The climate soothsayers are once again running amok, in league with the druids..

TomR,Worc,Ma,USA
Reply to  earwig42
July 7, 2015 7:15 am

Just. Can’t. Help. Themselves. Sigh.

Pat Frank
July 6, 2015 7:13 pm

blah, blah, blah, climate worry, doom, and gloom, 15 seconds of fame, grave pronouncements, peer-reviewed!, exit stage left, . . . Next up!

clipe
Reply to  Pat Frank
July 6, 2015 7:21 pm
clipe
Reply to  clipe
July 6, 2015 7:27 pm

Very cold winters such as the one that occurred in 2009/10 become almost non-existent. The chance of experiencing one of these is less than 1 per cent by the end of the century.
Lead scientist Dr David Viner Sexton

clipe
Reply to  clipe
July 6, 2015 8:22 pm

The future UK climate can now be described in terms of the extreme hot, cold, wet or dry seasons which could associate with floods, droughts, heatwaves and cold spells that impact society

“Here come de heap big warmy. Bigtime warmy warmy. Is big big hot. Plenty big warm burny hot. Hot! Hot hot! But now not hot. Not hot now. De hot come go, come go. Now Is Coldy Coldy. Is ice. Hot den cold. Frreeeezy ice til hot again. Den de rain. It faaaalllll. Make pasty.”
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100222487/when-it-comes-to-climate-change-we-have-to-trust-our-scientists-because-they-know-lots-of-big-scary-words/

Chris Wright
Reply to  clipe
July 7, 2015 2:13 am

I wonder how much a warm sweater will cost in 2100?
What utter nonsense. No one knows what the future climate will be, least of all these idiots.
Climate models have their uses, but they have zero predictive skill.
Anyone who claims to know what the climate will be in 50 or 100 years is either a fool or is trying to scare us – or, most probably, both.
Chris

Graphite
July 6, 2015 7:16 pm

British-Irish Isles? When did that name start?

clipe
Reply to  Graphite
July 6, 2015 7:52 pm

After a few jars of Irish ales?

Reply to  clipe
July 7, 2015 3:10 am

Guinness Extra Stout

emsnews
Reply to  clipe
July 7, 2015 5:14 am

The Irish consider their home to be THE Isle. England is…that other annoying place that won’t leave Ireland alone.

The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley
Reply to  Graphite
July 6, 2015 11:49 pm

I agree, there is no such thing as ‘Irish Isles’. I’m going to guess that the author is Irish, or needs treatment.

Another Ian
Reply to  The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley
July 7, 2015 1:30 am

I wouldn’t have thought anyone Irish would even – –

Reply to  The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley
July 7, 2015 5:41 am

You never heard ‘when Irish Isles are smiling, all the world seems hot and fey…’ ?

James Bull
Reply to  Graphite
July 7, 2015 12:23 am

Could be Bri-ish Isles or maybe Ibrish Isles.
It’s when doing surveys and they want my nationality and the option is UK I put British.
Awkward so and so me.
James Bull

Oldseadog
Reply to  James Bull
July 7, 2015 12:43 am

Me too.
But Bri’ish is just pure Glasgow.

Annie
Reply to  James Bull
July 10, 2015 5:41 am

I put English.

Bloke down the pub
Reply to  Graphite
July 7, 2015 1:52 am

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Isles
The British Isles are a group of islands off the north-western coast of continental Europe that consist of the islands of Great Britain, Ireland and over six thousand smaller isles.[5] Two sovereign states are located on the islands: Ireland (a republic whose territory covers roughly five-sixths of the island with the same name)[6] and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (which includes the constituent countries of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland)
I think if Europeans started calling the North American continent the ‘North America and Canadian continent’ just to please the French speakers in Quebec, our friends in the good ol’ USofA might think we’d gone slightly daft.

Juan Slayton
Reply to  Bloke down the pub
July 7, 2015 3:49 am

Well, there’s Mexamerica….
: > )

hoplite
Reply to  Bloke down the pub
July 7, 2015 12:11 pm

Sorry bloke but wrong analogy. Nobody objects to the adjective European which is the same as American in your analogy. Describing Ireland as ‘British’ is as wrong as it is insulting. After 700 years of killing, starving, dis possessing and pillorying the Irish surely we deserve a break from your ‘British’ depredations?

The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley
Reply to  Bloke down the pub
July 7, 2015 11:52 pm

hoplite, you should understand that Ireland was always ‘British’. British people colonised it 8-10,000 years ago – it was a short boat trip away from the ‘mainland’. We weren’t responsible for the potato famine, either. The situation was exacerbated by the inaction of British government though.

hoplite
Reply to  Bloke down the pub
July 8, 2015 1:05 am

Big Jim don’t know what history books you’ve been reading! Celts were the inhabitants of all of Western Europe eight to ten thousand years ago. Britain was indeed Celtic until the Anglo Saxons changed that with Celts remaining in Wales, Scotland and south western areas. In that sense Ireland has more claim on Britain than other way round! Romans previously didn’t invade Ireland either so our histories were different there too. The only admixture to our Irish Celtic blood was the Vikings and Normans. The English were invited to assist in a local dispute in 1170something and didn’t leave 26 of the 32 counties for nearly 700 years! In terms of lost colonies you’re pining for, I’d suggest you have a stronger claim on the ‘Britishness’ of the United States of America. Good luck with that!!

Richard G
Reply to  Bloke down the pub
July 8, 2015 5:06 pm

We could call North America, Mexiameriada or MexiAmeriCan.

Ted G
July 6, 2015 7:22 pm

The Grant application specifically said you have to BS and mention a warming climate -Thus – “Seasonal precipitation totals were strongly related to cyclone frequency, especially during summer.”
Frauds,lies and thefts. Anything for a grant buck!

Tim
Reply to  Ted G
July 7, 2015 8:06 am

The climate seems to be changing in a direct correlation to the dollar value of grant funding. This deserves some research!

July 6, 2015 7:24 pm

But, but, but, but:
Scorching summers such as the one in 2003 look set to become more common in England and Wales, a study suggests.
And devastating rains such as in Britain’s worst winter in 2013-14 may be less likely in the decades ahead.
Work by the Met Office has calculated the odds of particular weather scenarios striking in future years.
The computer simulations-based study, in journal Nature Climate Change, finds that milder winters and drier summers will also become more likely.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-33417413
Paris is coming don’t ya know

Jay Hope
Reply to  Lord Beaverbrook
July 7, 2015 12:45 am

‘Scorching summers….set to become more common’. I wish!

July 6, 2015 7:24 pm

Stormiest since 1871…so….its been Stormier in the past. Folks.. You must learn your history, to understand the present.

David R
Reply to  Ian MacDonald (@ianmacdon)
July 6, 2015 8:00 pm

The record of cyclone frequency only begins in 1871, according to the paper’s abstract: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.4425/abstract
2012 was the stormiest in the record. Whether it was stormier or not in the past isn’t known.

climatereason
Editor
Reply to  Ian MacDonald (@ianmacdon)
July 7, 2015 1:28 am

Ian
To do that one could do worse than reading Hubert Lambs book ‘Historic storms of the British Isles and North West Europe’ that goes back to the 1500’s. John Kington also of CRU has produced an epic book ‘Climate and Weather’ which looks at each decade back to the 1300’s.
It is evident that storminess and almost every other type of weather type goes in phases. My own research using the Met Office archives illustrates the wild fluctuations in climate over the centuries with rains and storms probably being the most dominant feature.
On the whole. the last century has had pretty benign weather and at some point that is going to revert to some of the other types we can observe over the centuries.
tonyb

Another Ian
Reply to  Ian MacDonald (@ianmacdon)
July 7, 2015 1:31 am

What about the one that the Armada hit?

Stephen Skinner
Reply to  Ian MacDonald (@ianmacdon)
July 7, 2015 2:44 am

Then there is the June storm that delayed D-Day followed a few weeks later by another storm that wrecked one of the Mulberry harbours. That’s two major storms in the Summer 70 years ago.

knr
Reply to  Ian MacDonald (@ianmacdon)
July 7, 2015 3:14 am

its been Stormier in the past.
not after ‘adjustments’
It is great when you can keep rewriting history to make your claims of the present and future seem like that not really a pile of BS .

Eamon Butler
Reply to  Ian MacDonald (@ianmacdon)
July 12, 2015 8:11 am

Yes indeed Ian. Here’s an account of the great storm of Jan. 1839, in Ireland. It was known as the ‘night of the big wind’ http://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/jan1839_storm.pdf
We get plenty of storms here, some quite nasty, but compared to what’s happened in the past, we’ve seen worse.
Eamon.

Jeff Swauger
July 6, 2015 7:28 pm

Have to try for tomorrow, was up too early to get the car to Columbus for service and we are both hitting bed early.
Sent from my iPad
>

ulriclyons
July 6, 2015 7:47 pm

“summers have become much wetter”
One summer was much wetter, 2012, otherwise it’s very similar to the last time the AMO was warm. Summer 2012 had deep negative NAO, such episodes will increase through this solar minimum.
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/actualmonthly/14/Rainfall/UK.gif

Reply to  ulriclyons
July 6, 2015 8:27 pm

The drier 1960 to 2000 (not 1990) period was due to poleward shifting jets caused by the active sun so that summers were indeed less stormy than before and since.
The driest period beginning in 1975 and ending 1995 represents the so called great climate shift of the mid 1970s which clearly went into reverse more recently.
I have been saying for years that I first noticed the jets start moving equatorward again in 2000 and that is borne out by Ulric’s chart.
The more equatorward trend correlates with lower solar activity.
The writers of the paper should study the work of Hubert Lamb instead of following the blinkered AGW mantra.

ren
Reply to  Stephen Wilde
July 6, 2015 11:44 pm

Let’s see what for a long time happening over the North Atlantic.
http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/700hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-41.22,72.67,454

ren
Reply to  Stephen Wilde
July 6, 2015 11:54 pm

Pressure anomaly is visible in the stratosphere, which has an effect on pressure in the troposphere (also visible).
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_HGT_ANOM_ALL_NH_2015.gif

Reply to  Stephen Wilde
July 7, 2015 7:43 am

As the North Atlantic Oscillation grew positive, storms were pushed northward and Norway’s glacers grew. AS the NAO goes negative the storms will move equator ward. I suspect the ITCZ and thus center of the HAdley circulation is involved in the location of the jets that drive the storm track.
The ITCZ moves poleward toward the warmer pole, it moves poleward in the hemisphere with the greatest
insolation as seen by its seasonal movements and the shifts due orbital precession. And it moves northward during La NInas.
With decreasing insolation from weakening solar output and a trend back to more El Ninos and a negative PDO, the ITCZ and storm tracks should continue to move equator ward. And based on the relationship with past ocean heat transport, less tropical waters will be transported poleward.
A cooler north Atlantic, a less northerly storm track, and reduced winter westerlies from a negative NAO, I would suspect Great Britain is in for some rather bitter stormy winters

ulriclyons
Reply to  Stephen Wilde
July 7, 2015 11:05 am

jim Steele said:
“With decreasing insolation from weakening solar output and a trend back to more El Ninos and a negative PDO, the ITCZ and storm tracks should continue to move equator ward. And based on the relationship with past ocean heat transport, less tropical waters will be transported poleward.”
The AMO remained largely in a warm mode through the Gleissberg solar Minimum of the 1880/1890’s. It cooled when solar activity levels picked up again. The mid 1970’s AMO cooling shows you which solar metric is the dominant forcing variable, and conversely the AMO warming since the mid 1990’s:
http://snag.gy/fjGhc.jpg

ren
Reply to  ulriclyons
July 6, 2015 11:35 pm

From this it follows that larger impact on climate can have force of the solar wind (solar protons) and galactic radiation. The solar wind definitely affect to pressure changes over the magnetic poles.

ren
Reply to  ulriclyons
July 7, 2015 12:08 am
ulriclyons
Reply to  ren
July 7, 2015 1:20 pm
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy
Reply to  ulriclyons
July 7, 2015 3:09 am

Please fit the data to moving average — 10 years, 33 years, 66 years — to get the correct cyclic pattern. Here we must not forget the fact that prior to 1957 the unit of measurement of rainfall is in inches and from 1957 on wards it is in millimeters.
Dr. S. Jeevananda Reddy

indefatigablefrog
Reply to  ulriclyons
July 7, 2015 4:38 am

Who gave you that graph? You’re not allowed to present denialist graphs of real unadjusted data.
How are we supposed to trick everyone into believing that recent rainfall has been exceptional, if you can run a quick search through Google images and find graphs of the real Met Office data. Graphs that could tell everyone quite plainly that nothing of any significance has occurred.
And then, seeing this, people may suddenly begin to suspect that, for example, the worsening Somerset floods in the years after 2000 really were caused by the suspension of maintenance and dredging works in the early 1990’s.
And if people figure out that the flooding was caused by the interference of the eco-meddlers, then they will figure out that the eco-meddlers are a bunch of malevolent imbeciles, who crave catastrophe. Often because they can use catastrophe to promote their own agenda and careers.
And it seems that they will create catastrophes, even if their are none to be found.
Luckily for the alarmists, most of the British public are never going to see that graph. The BBC aren’t going to let them see it. Nor are the Guardian.
If it ever did receive significant circulation, then alarmists would have to smear it as having been manufactured by a Big Oil funded disinformation campaign. (satire of sorts)

ulriclyons
Reply to  indefatigablefrog
July 7, 2015 6:10 am

I live just outside Glastonbury on the Somerset Levels, we got the story in the local news:
http://www.westernmorningnews.co.uk/Flooding-Levels-deliberate-policy-EA-document/story-20604863-detail/story.html
Glastonbury has unfortunately recently acquired a green majority council and green mayor, who have titled themselves as high ranking Bards and Druids, though their cider drenched esoteric rituals to heal mother Earth from bum vibes and bad energies show them to be squarely Cards and Brewids. And they are teaming up with MEP Molly Scott Cato with hopes to ration the southwest electricity by 40%, fill the air with dioxins etc from burning biomass, and fill the air with diesel fumes transporting the biomass in lorries on our roads. Completely eco-unconscious.
http://mollymep.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/The-power-to-transform-the-South-West_FINAL1.pdf
Trying to discuss energy policy with this bunch is near impossible. The mayor simply said “I don’t have time for this shit”, the rest just lie about the need for transition, denigrate you with an emotional projection, then stonewall you.

ulriclyons
Reply to  indefatigablefrog
July 7, 2015 6:20 am
JohnnyCrash
Reply to  indefatigablefrog
July 13, 2015 2:22 pm

@ulriclyons
I just read this in your pdf link “For this projection the following parameters were used to calculate renewable energy generation potential: Solar Irradiation: 1200Wm2”
It’s be a long time since I worked on satellites, but that’s about the number we used for solar panels…. in orbit. You won’t ever get 1200 w/m2 on the ground. Maybe that is an average w/m^2/day number? I couldn’t tell.

Just Steve
July 6, 2015 7:56 pm

My take…too many people heard the old saw “everybody complains about the weather, but no one does anything about it” a little bit too literally.

July 6, 2015 8:36 pm

According to ships logs the eastern Atlantic was most stormy in the Little Ice Age and according to records about the settlement of the Western Isles of Scotland it was least stormy in the Mediaeval Warming Period.
The authors of the paper have come to precisely the opposite conclusion to the truth because they uncritically accept AGW dogma about a warmer world being stormier.
The temperature differential across the middle latitudes determines storminess and that differential is greatest in cooling periods because the jets then move equatorward across those latitudes and polar air mixes more freely with equatorial air.
To explain it all one must first ascertain the cause of latitudinal jet stream and climate zone shifting. That appears to be related to solar activity levels and not our CO2 emissions.

Reply to  Stephen Wilde
July 7, 2015 3:12 am

agreed.

Reply to  Stephen Wilde
July 7, 2015 5:49 pm

Stephen,
You said,
“The authors of the paper have come to precisely the opposite conclusion to the truth because they uncritically accept AGW dogma about a warmer world being stormier.”
I don’t have a problem accepting this since warmer temperatures mean more evaporation which means more rain and if rain increases, storminess increases. However, they also say more cold and more drought will result too, so its easy to doubt the credibility of all their claims.
They need a kernel of truth somewhere so that they can sucker the masses into believing the remaining lies and this is one. My favorite disinformational truth is that 97% of scientists believe that CO2 emissions have a finite effect on the climate since the debate is about the size of this effect not whether or not the effect is zero.

Warren Latham
July 6, 2015 8:38 pm

It’s all “bollocks”: complete “bollocks” !
They are on the Great Global Warming “research” Gravy Train: they’ve also been given their £97,000,000- super-dooper-weather-computer (paid for by our tax monies last year) and they can’t even forecast the weather for next Monday, never mind long term perspectives !
WL

Richard of NZ
July 6, 2015 8:43 pm

I thought that high pressure systems produce calm dry and warm weather. High pressure systems in U.K. are referred to as cyclonic systems because they rotate in a clock-wise direction. Cyclonic weather is therefore warm and dry. How have these researchers conclude that cyclonic weather is going to be colder and wetter?

Peter Plail
Reply to  Richard of NZ
July 7, 2015 12:00 am

I think you might be applying a southern hemisphere perspective to the UK. Winds in a cyclone blow counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere. Read more: http://www.scienceclarified.com/Co-Di/Cyclone-and-Anticyclone.html#ixzz3fBcOF8Al

Richard of NZ
Reply to  Peter Plail
July 7, 2015 2:12 pm

Umm no, here in the south the good weather is produced by anticyclones, These rotate in an anticlockwise direction. The opposite occurs in the north i.e. cyclones produce good weather.

Reply to  Richard of NZ
July 7, 2015 4:17 pm

Cyclones are low pressure systems and rotate in an anti-clockwise direction in the northern hemisphere and clockwise in the southern hemisphere. They are usually associated with wet stormy weather. Anti-cyclones are high pressure systems which usually bring calm, warm weather. They rotate clockwise in the northern hemisphere and anti-clockwise in the southern hemisphere.

Warren Latham
July 6, 2015 8:47 pm

… and which bright spark invented a new name for our islands ?
For Dog Sake … it’s the British Isles !
WL

D.J. Hawkins
Reply to  Warren Latham
July 6, 2015 10:10 pm

HA!! Up Ireland!

quaesoveritas
Reply to  Warren Latham
July 6, 2015 11:57 pm

Evidently that is no longer p.c.

Leigh
July 6, 2015 9:13 pm

Just another catostrophic alarmist bell ringing, to add to the list leading up to the Paris stitch up.
Oh and he forgot the children.

Marcos
July 6, 2015 9:14 pm

Weren’t storms particularly bad for the British Isles during the Little Ice Age?

July 6, 2015 9:39 pm

So how will these idiots explain the “greater storminess” of British weather, now that records show there has been no warming for over 18 years?

indefatigablefrog
Reply to  mikelowe2013
July 7, 2015 4:59 am

Alarmists know that they don’t need to explain it.
All that they have to do, is keep drawing people’s attention to every event in the changeable British weather and credit “climate change” as being responsible for everything that happens.
Sadly people are already inclined to locate patterns and trends in random variability.
Sadly people are already inclined to misattribute perceived patterns to a grand scheme.
And even more sadly, people are inclined to trust anyone who presents as a “scientific expert”.
Most people think that they have experienced climate change induced “extreme weather” personally or at least seen it on the news.
I’m not sure how it would be possible to set about liberating them from such a delusion.
Not when “science” is on the side of promoting the delusion.

old44
July 6, 2015 9:45 pm

Much wetter, more cyclonic BBQ summers. Am I missing something here?

AJB
July 6, 2015 9:52 pm

In which case we’d better stop wasting cash on megawatt IBM pig iron for Slingo to warm the environs of Exeter and start getting sensible about repairing our crumbling sea defences. According to the pre-core-shun-harry principle anyway.
“When I talk to people, they remember the hot summer of 2003 or the wet winter of 2013-14 and they know they were extreme seasons”. Try 1947 and 1963 – before you were born was it?

Oldseadog
Reply to  AJB
July 7, 2015 12:49 am

In 1947 we had metres of snow in S. Scotland and I was off school for 6 weeks due to blocked roads.
(You just can’t win.)

Patrick
July 6, 2015 9:55 pm

Sheesh! What rot! This “study” is suitable for filing in the bin…nothing less! People are getting all out of joint in the UK at the moment with Wimbledon and high temperatures. Sure, on the central court the temperature is high (More fool them for playing a stressful game in SUMMER) but regional temperatures, albeit warm, are not unusual for an English summer. 1976 was hotter!

QQBoss
Reply to  Patrick
July 6, 2015 10:42 pm

Stressful weather is the best time to play elite level tennis. Played in more comfortable conditions, the damn games might last 6 or 8 hours. I love playing tennis and watching a good match is great fun, but powerful racquets result in people only willing (or able) to go baseline to baseline- so little finesse and almost complete destruction of the serve and volley game make it too much like a soccer (nee football) match for my taste. Maybe they should bring back wooden racquets for anyone ranked in the top-20?
Beach volleyball is another game best played in hot, stressful weather. Totally different reasons, of course.

asybot
Reply to  QQBoss
July 6, 2015 10:54 pm

Beach volleyball is another game best played in hot, stressful weather. Totally different reasons, of course.
Thankfully so, I’d hate to watch beach volleyball in December!

Patrick
Reply to  QQBoss
July 7, 2015 6:01 am

I watch tennis only when the William’s girls play. Sorry, but that is my excuse and I am sticking to it!

chris moffatt
Reply to  QQBoss
July 7, 2015 6:18 pm

Shades of the sixties when the top players served and ran right up to the net to smash the return. Watched Laver do it many times. It was the style of play back then and much more compelling.

emsnews
Reply to  Patrick
July 7, 2015 5:20 am

1976 was freezing cold here in North America. Brrr. Even in July. Many storms. I work out of doors and remember that year very well, couldn’t complete a day’s work due to storms roaring through like clockwork!

Patrick
Reply to  emsnews
July 7, 2015 6:02 am

I wonder if there is a “cycle” in the record?

Robert of Ottawa
July 6, 2015 11:24 pm

Excuse me, it is the British Isles. It is the name for he archipelago. All residents, English, Irish, Scottish, Welsh, Cornish, Manx etc. are British, it being a geographical term..

JP
Reply to  Robert of Ottawa
July 7, 2015 12:59 pm

Does that include the Channel Islands?

Robert of Ottawa
July 6, 2015 11:36 pm

British Isles to become more weathier!

Nick Shepherd
July 6, 2015 11:48 pm

Grant money now with cyclonic action.

July 6, 2015 11:51 pm

It would help if the researchers look at the map, the British Isles are not in the middle of the Indian Ocean, it appears they have never heard of 60 year natural cycles in the North Atlantic.

ren
Reply to  vukcevic
July 7, 2015 12:04 am

100%

Reply to  vukcevic
July 7, 2015 4:12 am

http://www.vukcevic.talktalk.net/E1.gif
Graph shows direct link between sunspot cycles and the quasi-periodic oscillations in the North Atlantic. Solar activity induces (most likely via geomagnetic storms) geomagnetic oscillations, which in turn synchronise ~ 60 year cycles.
Note that the AMO’s ~60 year peaks are coincident with every third odd sunspot cycle, while the AMO troughs are synchronised with every third even sunspot cycle. Since length of the sunspot cycles varies between 9+ and 11+, result is not fixed periodicity oscillation but a quasi-periodic cycle.

Richard111
July 6, 2015 11:59 pm

I’m still waiting for the heat wave! All we seem to get is cloud, rain, and the odd sunny interval. Oh, we did have a nice day last week! Temperature reached 21C with sun all day. As I type I can see a small patch of blue through the clouds. Promising anyway.
http://www.milfordweather.org.uk/atmospheric.asp

confusedphoton
July 7, 2015 12:46 am

“Given concern over increased British-Irish Isles storminess as the climate warms, there is a need to understand the extent to which these changes may already be underway,” said Dr. Tom Matthews
Give us lots of money and we will look into this fantasy – a bit like Myles Allen and flooding. These people will say anything to keep their gravy train running.

Leo Smith
July 7, 2015 1:22 am

1950s were wetter and stormier than anything since

Stephen Richards
July 7, 2015 1:36 am

“Seasonal precipitation totals were strongly related to cyclone frequency, especially during summer
How much research do you need to understand that more depressions (cyclones) means more rain.

dave
July 7, 2015 1:39 am

So, they have confirmed the role of cyclones in the climate/weather of the British Isles! I was taught that in primary school.

Malcolm Turner
July 7, 2015 1:45 am

You can’t blame people for loving the planet, can you? There is a lot of energy out there that we could capture. The main thing that excites us to anger about the warmy-warmy-thingy is the way that so many of the illiterate contextualise what needs to be done. We are in the position, as never before, to understand the whole of our world and therefore we have made it seem a very small and finite place, panic ensues chased by a dragon.
The biggest victim in this whole sorry business is the scientific method, corrupted, egged-on by governments choosing winners and losers, appeasing, garnering votes. It seems that the only thing that the deniers can actually have any chance of success at is not in contradiction but in getting in front of the ‘warmists’ and determining what should be done rather than losing all the huff and puff in trying to provide a confutation.
As know to my own loss, in times of great perturbation you want to be all action. You have to be doing ‘something’ for that life will be lost and if you do not do your best now then you will spend the rest of your conscious life in self-deprecation, anxiety, even if the outcome is knowingly beyond alteration. Poor us, poor world; damn you big yellow hotty-glowy thing in that perfect blue. You kill us with kindness.

Ex-expat Colin
July 7, 2015 2:13 am

Yep..we certainly got a few storms this month and likely a couple more to come. This is the west side of England in a direct line to the Western (Atlantic) approaches. I am surprised that Ireland has not washed away because it is constantly hammered from the Atlantic. Our western beaches are renowned for some pretty good waves and some surfing (Newquay).
It supplied plenty of rain with it that farmers need. Anyway, we have not had storms for the last 3 years? I’d say at a guess there is plenty of moisture about (the Atlantic) and combined with some Sun and mountains at the coast (Wales) loads of clouds form. It may or rain or not…sort of variable thing?
Somebody seems to have been lightening frazzled in the Brecons holding a selfie stick…dunno?

michael hart
July 7, 2015 2:33 am

The summer of 2012 was the “stormiest” since at least 1871.

The summer of 2012 was probably the stormiest since at least the winter of 2012.

Sleepalot
Reply to  michael hart
July 7, 2015 1:44 pm

The summer of 2012 was stormy? I didn’t notice.

Editor
July 7, 2015 2:41 am

According to the Abstract:
. Cyclone frequency and storminess are characterized by pronounced interannual and multi-decadal variability which are strongly coupled to atmospheric blocking in the Euro-Atlantic region, but we detect no evidence of an increasing trend.
and
We observe an upward trend in cyclone intensity for the BI region, which is strongest in winter and consistent with model projections, but promote caution interpreting this given the changing data quality in the 20CR over time.
The less stormy 1960-90’s is already well known about, as this Durham Uni study pointed out a couple of years ago:
However, in looking at longer rainfall and river flow records, Prof. Lane shows that we have forgotten just how normal flooding in the UK is. He looked at seasonal rainfall and river flow patterns dating back to 1753 which suggest fluctuations between very wet and very dry periods, each lasting for a few years at a time, but also very long periods of a few decades that can be particularly wet or particularly dry. In terms of river flooding, the period since the early 1960s and until the late 1990s appears to be relatively flood free, especially when compared with some periods in the late 19th century and early 20th Century.
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2014/02/25/we-have-forgotten-just-how-normal-flooding-in-the-uk-is/
Unfortunately much of our building on flood plains is based on the “dry” 1960’s being the norm.

Carbon500
Reply to  Paul Homewood
July 7, 2015 11:29 am

A book I’m fond of is the late Robin Stirling’s ‘The Weather of Britain’ ISBN 1-900357-06-02. He was a professional meteorologist.
Chapter 6 is entitled ‘Some Days Bring Deluges’, and I’ll describe a few of the many floods he covers in detail. He describes for example a disastrous flood at Louth, Lincolnshire in 1920, and serious flooding in the city of Norwich in 1912. He mentions a tablet set into a wall which records the high water mark for severe floods of the past. The highest prior to the flood described was in 1614, but the 1912 flood went 15 inches higher. He tells us that ‘much damage was done to roads and bridges throughout the county’.
He also comments that ‘it must not be thought strange that so many new records were broken in the early years of the 20th century: records cannot be broken until there are records in existence to break’.
The documentation of UK floods in the past goes on for several pages – in 1833, 1897, 1917, 1924, 1929, 1930, 1931, 1937 for example and continuing right up to recent times. In 1931 Boston in Lincolnshire had a quarter of a year’s worth of rainfall dumped on the city in two hours. This happened again in 1937. In August 1952, Exmoor suffered a flooding disaster following a wet month. The peat and shales of Exmoor were unable to absorb the vast quantities of water, which surged down the valleys of the East and West Lyn rivers, carrying enormous boulders and washing away houses, hotels , and sweeping 130 cars out to sea. A seven-ton boulder was found in the basement of one hotel.
Stirling shows a photo of the scene in Milbrook, Guildford in September 1968, commenting that some shops in the High Street were flooded to a depth of almost eight feet, and that 1968 will long be remembered for ‘the floods’.
Stirling states that caution is needed in assessing changes in the frequency of flooding as indicators of climate change. He mentions that Exmoor’s rainfall varies between 49 and 79 inches in a year. An inch of water is the equivalent of 100 tons per acre, or 4840 square yards. I find it’s easier to think of this as the area bounded by a square of seven buses on each side, a bus being about 30 feet long!
So, severe floods are nothing new. The Environmental Agency has been blamed for a failure to keep waterways free and dredged in favour of ‘encouraging wildlife’ and so forth.
The Met Office are sitting on the Central England Temperature record, which shows clearly that at no time since 1659 has the temperature here climbed higher than 11 degrees C, and temperatures above 10 degrees aren’t unprecedented.
A lot of reputations are at stake, along with a lot of money. One day people will look back on all this with amazement.

Sleepalot
Reply to  Paul Homewood
July 7, 2015 1:47 pm

Farmers here have been digging ditches since the stone age: they’ve been filling them in since the war.

July 7, 2015 3:02 am

I see that the UK has become important to the alarmists once again. Since that is true, can we talk about the Central England Temperature record?
“The longest continuous record of measured surface air temperatures in the world exists for a region representative of the English Midlands – known as the Central England Temperature record. Daily records extend back to 1772 and monthly records to 1659. Annual temperature fluctuations in this region are representative of those in most of the UK.”
This record stretches way back into the Little Ice Age and comes forward to today. What does this record say?

The data shows that there has definitely been a slow but continuous warming trend since 1660 until the present time beginning well before the industrial revolution. Furthermore there is no obvious evidence of any CO2 induced acceleration in warming as emissions increased post 195o. ~ Clive Best

“Relative to the 350 year long term trend there is no real evidence for any recent anthropogenic warming … There is indeed an apparent upturn after 1970 but nothing that is really remarkably different to that in the 1700s. This is then followed by a downturn back to normal.” ~ Clive Best
http://clivebest.com/blog/?p=6385
Now, this long running temperature data set says that there is no CO2 warming at all. It is a delusion my friends. The CO2 “sensitivity” is zero or a negative number.
There will be no paper published that will take a look at the CET records in the run up to Paris is my wager.

The Ghost Of Big Jim Cooley
Reply to  markstoval
July 7, 2015 4:53 am

Clive correctly points out that there is no AGW signal in the datasets of either CET or HadCRUt4 (for England). If CO2 forcing were real, we would see a rather abrupt and marked rise in both datasets. The trend in the HadCRUt4 is 0.001c per decade:
http://clivebest.com/blog/?p=4448

Kelvin Vaughan
Reply to  markstoval
July 7, 2015 11:34 am

The trend in maximum between 1920 and 1988 is flat. The Trend between 1989 and 2012 is flat. There was a step rise between 1988 and 1989.

P.M. Dean
July 7, 2015 3:23 am

As an antidote, may I suggest WUWT readers look at chapter 9 ‘Climatic trends, Anomalies and Extremes’ in John Kington’s book ‘Climate and Weather’ published by Collins New Naturalist (2010). In it he describes the British cyclonic weather records from the 1270s,1310s, 1360s,1400s, 1420-30s, 1490s, 1520s, 1570s, 1620s, 1640s, 1690s,1770s, 1816, 1870s, 1903, 1910s. Kington’s data is rather more extensive than the 140 year study reported in that recent paper.

Editor
July 7, 2015 3:45 am

“By studying climate data in the British-Irish Isles over a 142-year period”
Do I detect yet more cherry picking? Why 142 years? Round it up to 150 years, or down to 100 years!

Editor
July 7, 2015 3:55 am

Also in my 60 years in the UK, I have not noticed any difference in the weather from my earliest recollections until now. We have good summers and poor summers, cold winters and mild winters. My birthday is 1st May I have seen snow on that date and on my 10th I got sunstroke, UK weather is dependent on the relatively warm mass of sea around us, the Gulf and Jet Streams.

Carbon500
Reply to  andrewmharding
July 8, 2015 3:57 am

Agreed entirely, Mr. Harding. I was born the UK 66 years ago, and the British climate is unchanged as you describe. What bothers me is the garbage being touted which infers that our climate is changing for the worse – which is absolute nonsense.

Roderick
July 7, 2015 3:57 am

If researchers are going to assert the existence of “stormier” or “stormiest” weather conditions, the first thing they need is a definition of “stormy” that is both scientifically rigorous and quantifiable. I won’t be holding my breath.

H.R.
Reply to  Roderick
July 7, 2015 6:07 am

Roderick July 7, 2015 at 3:57 am

…the first thing they need is a definition of “stormy” that is both scientifically rigorous and quantifiable.

Simples. Count the number of raindrops, multiply by the wind speed, throw in the obligatory fudge factor based on the level of Atmospheric CO2 times the number of bumbershoots sold in Liverpool between 10:00 am and 4:00 pm, and then set a lower threshold. Anything above that threshold is “stormy.”
Of course the number of raindrops and bumbershoots sold will be modeled on a computer and not counted, so we’d be at ‘climate science as usual.’ That’s the down side.
On the up side, the Raindrop Models(TM) can project all sorts of scary storminess for the year 2050 or 2100 and the grants can continue to roll in. What’s not to like? ;o)

TonyN
July 7, 2015 4:20 am

I wonder about the quality of the meterological records 142 years ago particularly the spatial separation of the data-collection points’
However, I suspect that these guys are preparing the ground for the ‘discovery’ of the 60-year cycle, for when the temps start going down again. The UKMET office is more concerned with the political weather, and the likelihood of grantfalls than with rainfalls

Editor
July 7, 2015 4:40 am

Meanwhile, “scientists say” climate change is leading to drier summers in the UK!
http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2705.html
And back in the real world?
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2015/07/07/more-wet-dry-summers-to-come-for-the-uk/

ren
July 7, 2015 5:38 am

AMO trend is visible in the growth of summer ice in the Arctic.
http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/icecover/icecover_current_new.png

July 7, 2015 6:58 am

I wonder how they find time to opine with their heads up their butts? lol

Bruce Cobb
July 7, 2015 7:46 am

It’s amazing what the climate can do when it’s hopped up on “carbon”.

Michael in Dublin
July 7, 2015 8:25 am

Are the British Isles getting “stormier”?
Has there been a significant change in the climate over the past 60 years?
Why not respond to climate alarmism with satire?
Listen to Flanders and Swan about the English weather: “The Song of the Weather” (1956?)

And while we are about it, listen to “The First and Second Law” by this intrepid duo.

Humour not hubris may be the best weapon against the alarmists.

hoplite
July 7, 2015 12:01 pm

Could somebody explain to this man from Ireland where the ‘British Isles’ are exactly?

Pamela Gray
Reply to  hoplite
July 7, 2015 1:01 pm

Lol! That would depend on the nationality and ancestry of whoever attempts to answer your question!

JP
July 7, 2015 12:57 pm

According to Anthropologist, Brian Fagan, the change from the MWP to the LIA was accompanied by a steady increase in storms, as well as by a very erractic climate regime, that oscillated between hot, dry periods and severe winters and spring/summer flooding.

chris moffatt
July 7, 2015 6:07 pm

They would have us believe that there are more storms nowadays? but a cyclone is simply a low-pressure system. one would expect some precipitation from it. I don’t expect they were counting them 142 years ago so we don’t know if there are more now or not. A cyclone is NOT a storm!

rtj1211
July 8, 2015 2:04 am

Piers Corbyn predicted the three recent wet summers based on solar-lunar cycles. Ask him for the articeles – remember reading them but don’t have them. He referred to similar patterns in the late 19th century – again, can’t remember the years but he documented them.
For the record the SE of England is currently bone dry having had very little rain since mid-April…………

Annie
July 10, 2015 5:48 am

I’ve just been browsing through old cartoon books of Carl Giles. They give a really good record of the weather and typical British reactions to it!

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